If the Vale joined Robb from the start would they have defeated the Lannisters?

[True.Kitn902]

The title pretty much says it all, I believe if Lysa decided to grow some lady balls and protect her family then Robb would have defeated Tywin mostly because the Tyrells probably wouldn't join him and Balon probably wouldn't attack the North since Robb was sitting kinda pretty with 3 kingdoms in his service and the Freys couldn't force Robb to Marry a frey especially since the Vale army could be used to give Edmure and RR relief and Walder would have no choice once Edmure gives command to allow Robb passage. 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

It depends on a lot of factors. According to GRRM some of those Vale Lords may support the crown, or Renly or even Stannis should push come to shove.

GeoRR: The lords of the Vale are numerous. As with any large group, their views vary.

GeoRR: "Brothers" overstates the case, but certainly Ned made friends during his years in the Eyrie... so did Robert, however, so some of the Vale houses would be just as well disposed toward Baratheon as toward Stark.

GeoRR: Do some of the them want to join Robb? Certainly. Most notably Bronze Yohn Royce. Others, however, want no part of the war, and some may even favor the other contenders.

While Lysa may not have done it for the most noble of intentions, keeping the Vale neutral was the best thing for the Vale. It prevented  civil war in her own territory.

 

[TheSTARKempire]

I think no, simply because the series would have been boring had the North won over lannister that quickly, easily and that sooner. But, the war did weaken the lannister forces and those are thinly spread out over riverlands and westerlands now. Were the Tyrell-Lannisters alliance to collapse(which I think will happen), lannister will have a hard time keeping tommen on the iron throne. 

[Jon's Queen Consort]

2 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

While Lysa may not have done it for the most noble of intentions, keeping the Vale neutral was the best thing for the Vale. It prevented  civil war in her own territory.

Agree. Almost every region that supported one of the Rebells is destroyed. Yet because of Lysa the Vale is in a good situation. After all what would happen to the Vale? I mean since some wanted to follow Robb, some wanted to follow Renly and some wanted to be neutral what would happen? From what I understand they would had a small Vale civil war.

[FuzzyJAM]

The Lannisters would probably have lost if most of the Vale had supported him.  

I'm not sure if that means Robb would have won.  Of course, it depends a great deal on what everyone else does.  I think the idea of a separate North, at least if it incorporates the Riverlands, is simply not tenable.  Whoever won the Iron Throne would have demanded submission, and the Riverlands are not defensible.  So for Robb to win, he'd have had to take the Iron Throne.  At that point, I guess it would come down to a battle between Stannis and Robb - who could claim more loyalty and show more political nous?  Hard to say - perhaps the war would just continue for years, awaiting the Restoration.  

[Floki of the Ironborn]

Assuming that the Vale was 100% behind the Arryns in their declaration for Robb Stark, then that means Robb would be king of the North, Trident, and Vale. He'd be King of at least half of Westeros.

However, assuming that all the major events of the book still happen as they do (Theon's betrayal, Winterfell's burning, Stannis vs Renly, Tyrell-Lannister allegiance, Blackwater, etc.) then Robb's doom might only be temporarily delayed. The Vale forces would put him in a better position, but if the Reach and the Lannisters still unite against them, then the war is just even more drawn out, with the Vale's army slowly ground down until they're forced back to their lands. They can at least hide behind their natural defences, as well as the North, leaving the Riverlands to be crushed.

[John Doe]

32 minutes ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

It depends on a lot of factors. According to GRRM some of those Vale Lords may support the crown, or Renly or even Stannis should push come to shove.

GeoRR: The lords of the Vale are numerous. As with any large group, their views vary.

GeoRR: "Brothers" overstates the case, but certainly Ned made friends during his years in the Eyrie... so did Robert, however, so some of the Vale houses would be just as well disposed toward Baratheon as toward Stark.

GeoRR: Do some of the them want to join Robb? Certainly. Most notably Bronze Yohn Royce. Others, however, want no part of the war, and some may even favor the other contenders.

While Lysa may not have done it for the most noble of intentions, keeping the Vale neutral was the best thing for the Vale. It prevented  civil war in her own territory.

 

Do you think they would dare to attack the Arryns and Royces directly though? I doubt it.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

26 minutes ago, John Doe said:

 

Do you think they would dare to attack the Arryns and Royces directly though? I doubt it.

Sure. There was a mini civil war in the Vale during Robert's Rebellion and that was when Jon Arryn was in charge and the Targs had executed a Royce (or two). Lysa and her son have less authority that Jon did 20 years ago so for sure I'd expect some ambitious Lords to use this as a means to advance their own position while some others may have genuinely liked Robert and side with his sons or brothers.

[King of Winter-ish Stuff]

13 hours ago, King Floki of the Ironborn said:

Assuming that the Vale was 100% behind the Arryns in their declaration for Robb Stark, then that means Robb would be king of the North, Trident, and Vale. He'd be King of at least half of Westeros.

However, assuming that all the major events of the book still happen as they do (Theon's betrayal, Winterfell's burning, Stannis vs Renly, Tyrell-Lannister allegiance, Blackwater, etc.) then Robb's doom might only be temporarily delayed. The Vale forces would put him in a better position, but if the Reach and the Lannisters still unite against them, then the war is just even more drawn out, with the Vale's army slowly ground down until they're forced back to their lands. They can at least hide behind their natural defences, as well as the North, leaving the Riverlands to be crushed.

I'm not so sure they would have bent the knee to Robb. The Vale has a long history of animosity with the North. I could see the Vale riding into battle with Robb against the Lannisters to avenge Jon Arryn (in their eyes), but they have a kingly line that they have all followed before, the Arryns. The Riverlands bent the knee to Robb because they had no one else TO bend the knee too.

[redtree]

If the Vale was in there'd be no King of The North

[John Doe]

16 hours ago, thelittledragonthatcould said:

Sure. There was a mini civil war in the Vale during Robert's Rebellion and that was when Jon Arryn was in charge and the Targs had executed a Royce (or two). Lysa and her son have less authority that Jon did 20 years ago so for sure I'd expect some ambitious Lords to use this as a means to advance their own position while some others may have genuinely liked Robert and side with his sons or brothers.

But this time it's a widely held believe that the Lannisters killed  Jon Arryn and since Robert's "children" and brothers are all on different sides it would be hard to really gather the Baratheon loyalists all on one side. Plus Joffry doesn't have the same legitimacy or support the Targaryens had, even when the king was mad.

[Beorn Snow]

What´s in it for the Vale? Northern independence is really problematic for Andal Vale-lords to say the least. 

But in terms of number I think it is almost indisputable. There may be some inner conflicts, like in RR some Vale lords may support the crown but be defeated by Arryn forces early.

The mountain clans joining Lannisters would probably help most Vale lords in deciding to stick with their LP. 

The Vale marching out means that all of the sudden Robb could realistically defeat Tywin´s forces in an open field battle. It may even lead to him not needing to ask the Ironborn for anything, which saves everyone a lot of trouble, and leads to a really, really, really, boring story.

[Andros Manderly]

Nice thread.

I would love to have seen the Vale join with Robb to help him out against the Lannisters, ever since I first read AGOT. Having read this thread though I'm coming round to the idea nothing is simple in the world of ice and fire. A couple of questions for the OP though.

1. Not entirely sure that joining Robb from the start would be the most opportune moment. Looking at a map I believe  the most opportune moment for the Vale to join Robb would be when Tywin is encamped at Harrenhal. The Stark host is at Riverrun and their allies are skirmishing with the second Lannister host mustering at Casterly Rock. The Vale comes in and lays siege to Harrenhal, freeing Robb to either march on the Rock or hit Harrenhal from the West as the Vale lords hit it from the East. If the Vale declared for Robb in the first place I can't see Tywin placing himself between the devil and the deep blue sea.

2. What does the Vale gain from alliance with Robb should they be successful? As touched upon by some of the posters above - do they get the Vale as an independent kingdom? Are they incorporated into the North? What is the end game?

I believe a lot of the discussion is academic anyway as Littlefinger was pretty much running the show in the Vale.

 

[John Doe]

I think the Vale would gain absolutely nothing unless they managed to sell their support to Robb in exchange for him supporting a king, either Stannis or Renly. Stannis seems like the better candidate since I believe honor is held high in the Vale, thus the lords would be reluctant to join the younger brother and Robb would rather support him anywaye.

 

On Sunday, March 13, 2016 at 10:49 AM, Beorn Snow said:

What´s in it for the Vale? Northern independence is really problematic for Andal Vale-lords to say the least. 

But in terms of number I think it is almost indisputable. There may be some inner conflicts, like in RR some Vale lords may support the crown but be defeated by Arryn forces early.

The mountain clans joining Lannisters would probably help most Vale lords in deciding to stick with their LP. 

The Vale marching out means that all of the sudden Robb could realistically defeat Tywin´s forces in an open field battle. It may even lead to him not needing to ask the Ironborn for anything, which saves everyone a lot of trouble, and leads to a really, really, really, boring story.

I'm not if the story would be boring, just very different and probably witout the ultimate "fuck you" moment that was the Red Wedding

 

[thelittledragonthatcould]

2 hours ago, John Doe said:

But this time it's a widely held believe that the Lannisters killed  Jon Arryn and since Robert's "children" and brothers are all on different sides it would be hard to really gather the Baratheon loyalists all on one side. Plus Joffry doesn't have the same legitimacy or support the Targaryens had, even when the king was mad.

Lysa blames Tyrion. While we the readers seem to expressly identify Joffrey as a Lannister in Westeros he is Robert's son. A Baratheon and his father was just as popular (if not more so) than Ned was in the Vale.

Aerys killed a couple of Royces and still had support in the Vale.  I see no reason why the son of Robert Baratheon would also not have some support in the Vale like the author suggests.

[Eden-Mackenzie]

On March 12, 2016 at 10:16 AM, True.Kitn902 said:

The title pretty much says it all, I believe if Lysa decided to grow some lady balls and protect her family then Robb would have defeated Tywin mostly because the Tyrells probably wouldn't join him and Balon probably wouldn't attack the North since Robb was sitting kinda pretty with 3 kingdoms in his service and the Freys couldn't force Robb to Marry a frey especially since the Vale army could be used to give Edmure and RR relief and Walder would have no choice once Edmure gives command to allow Robb passage. 

The thing is, we know it was not Lysa's lack of lady balls that truly kept the Vale out of the war. The conflict between the Starks and Lannisters was purposefully set into motion by Lysa and Petyr, and if they had not murdered Jon Arryn, none of the events of the War of the Five Kings would have happened as they did. With Petyr (seemingly) supporting the King on the Iron Throne, there is no possible way Lysa would have joined the opposing side, nor would she have allowed bannermen just as Bronze Yohn to do so. The only way Lysa would have conceivably joined would have been for the conflict to arise in some other way, and even then I do not believe the support of the Vale would truly changed the outcome.

The Tyrells joined the Lannisters out of self-preservation: after first siding with Renly, their options were to join Tywin or become his enemy. By joining Renly, Mace made his daughter a queen and a gained a prestigious position for his third son. By joining Joffrey, Mace made his daughter a queen and a gained a prestigious position for his third son. What would the Tyrells gain by joining Robb or going home? 

From his conversations with Theon, it appears as though Balon was planning to attack the North even before Theon was sent to him. An Ironborn uprising while Theon was still with Robb would have had even more disastrous an impact than releasing Theon did. Robb would have been forced to choose between executing Theon for his father's actions or allowing him to live in spite of them. Choosing the former would cost Robb a friend and skilled soldier as well as give his new enemy an additional reason to fight against him. Choosing the latter would completely negate the effectiveness of taking hostages, make Robb look weak, and confirm to Balon that his son had become a greenlander. Yes, it was Theon's idea to take Winterfell, but ifTheon had not, another Ironborn group or even Ramsay could have done so. 

Adding the Vale would increase the size of Robb's army, but it would also increase the size of Robb's territory to defend. Gulltown was one of the locations of Targaryen loyalists during Robert's Rebellion, indicating they would not necessarily support the Stark/Arryn cause this time around, and Gulltown could be easily accessed by the Crown's forces. A loyalist uprising in the Vale would cause the same problems as the Ironborn invasion of the North, and Robb has no need for an additional battlefront. The loss of the Karstark and Frey forces was a major blow to Robb's army; if an attack on the Vale happened, Lysa would surely recall her forces, and the loss of the Vale soldiers would be devastating. There are also the clansmen to consider - if the majority of the fighting men left the Vale, what would prevent an uprising by the clans?

Having Sweetrobin as an additional bargaining chip to use with Walder Frey may have been beneficial, but Lysa does not seem to be the type to easily accept any such arrangement. The  alliance with Walder Frey did not only allow Robb to reach Riverrun, it also increased the size of his army by a decent amount, and protected land access to the Neck, thereby protecting the North. Without the Twins, Robb is cut off from the North, which is why he attempted to make amends with Walder to begin with - if crossing at the Twins was not necessary, the Red Wedding could have been avoided. 

[GallowsKnight]

If the Lord of the Vale gets to be a King, there are actually decent benefits even if his gains no new lands or vassals.

1. Taxes. He keeps the taxes that would normally go to the crown. We see Manderly in the North is able to arm men and build ships in Robb's names with royal funds.

2. Internal Authority. He gets the last say on any matter in the Vale. No appeals above to the King on the Iron throne. He can make decisions such as to build a navy without needing any approval.

3. External Autonomy. If the King of the Vale wishes to ally with Braavos in War against any of the Three Daughter's Free Cities (Tyrosh, Myr, Lys) he could do so without asking for permission.

4. Prestige. He gets to call himself King. Have a Kingsguard etc. He can arrange better marriages for his children (though they were already great to begin with)

All of this trickles down to his lords as well. Less overall taxes, means the King might lower some for the Lords. Also the prestige of marrying a princess or having a son in the Kingsguard.

14 hours ago, Andros Manderly said:

2. What does the Vale gain from alliance with Robb should they be successful? As touched upon by some of the posters above - do they get the Vale as an independent kingdom? Are they incorporated into the North? What is the end game?

I imagine that they'd be an independent Kingdom with Robert Arryn as King. Considering that is what Robb was going to offer Balon. Him to be his ally as a King.

I think an unlikely but ideal dream situation for Robb would have been him as King of the North, Riverlands and a chunk of the Westerlands. With Balon, eventually Theon as King of the Iron Islands and another chunk of the Westerlands including Lannisport and Casterly Rock. 

Renly nominally as overall Ruler/Emperor but in practice King of the Reach, Stormlands, Crownlands, a bit of the Riverlands and Westerlands. With Dorne remaining largely independent.

[mediterraneo]

I am on the "the Vale had its problems in mobilizing" camp too.
It is not by chance that the pro-Stark party in the Vale was led by a family of First Men Old-Godders: before the changes induced by the War of the FIght Kings, the King's Laning riot and all, the Faith was very much sided with the (Jeoffrey) Baratheon monarchy and the unity of the Realm. It would have been a problem for the faithful of the Seven to accept a non-Baratheon king, even the Tyrells fetched one in Renly.

As a paradox, Robb and Cat would have ended in a far better position if Lysa fielded (at least politically) the Vale in the Crown's camp, with the (Jeoffrey) Baratheon forces. Robb and Cat, and Theon, and Bran and Rickon, and all of the people of WInterfell would be alive and relatively well, waiting for an invasion that could or could not come before the Winter. Would have Balon made his move without Theon on the Islands?
Renly could even not end up meeting his brother and being assassinated before irrimediable Tyrell-Lannister clashes.
The winner would still have had to contend with Stannis and his not burned fleet on the culturally very relevant Dragonstone, sitting on the trade routes from King's Landing to the east.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

29 minutes ago, mediterraneo said:

I am on the "the Vale had its problems in mobilizing" camp too.
It is not by chance that the pro-Stark party in the Vale was led by a family of First Men Old-Godders:

The weird thing is that one of the Royces did actually pick a side in the War of the Five Kings. Royces son Robar sided with Renly rather than Robb or the Crown. Now if one House is not even united in their support then there is a good indication that the same will be true of much of the Vale with a whole host of nobles picking sides for both honourable and ambitious reasons. Lysa made the right call keeping them out of it, same with Doran.

[Lord Lannister]

In order to get the Vale to side with Robb you'd have to remove Lysa Arryn from the equation. Though this not only would remove the family tie between Robb Stark and Robert Arryn's mothers that suggests such an alliance, but it would also remove the initial war between the Starks and Lannisters given it was Lysa and Littlefinger that set events in motion by killing Jon Arryn.

Oh there would be a succession crisis of some sort down the road, but it would be ignited by a different catalyst.