US Politics: Elecciones Generales 8 De Noviembre, 2012

[NestorMakhnosLovechild]

Let's bring it home, people.

[The Mance]

Como se dice "Like!" En espanol?

[Horza]

I predict at least one more thread. Plenty of stuff to get outraged/excited/insanely worried about yet.

Also, on a less meta note: PPP has Obama +5 in IA

[Maithanet]

AP:

I get that some people may be dumb enough to be fooled by the flyers. But criminy, it was rammed through our heads in school that the election is always the first Tuesday of November.

Not a big deal, but this is not correct. Election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Therefore it is always the Tuesday between Nov 2 and Nov 8. I don't remember why that rule is in place, or if they even had a reason.

[Fragile Bird]

So, is the election on November 8th?

Wow, I can read Spanish!

ETA: <sigh> This is sarcasm. Sorry if I misled you. :(

[] - wait, or is this for irony? Must find TP's thread.

[awesome possum]

AP:

Not a big deal, but this is not correct. Election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Therefore it is always the Tuesday between Nov 2 and Nov 8. I don't remember why that rule is in place, or if they even had a reason.

I thought I was missing a component of that.

[Ormond]

Not a big deal, but this is not correct. Election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Therefore it is always the Tuesday between Nov 2 and Nov 8. I don't remember why that rule is in place, or if they even had a reason.

It's because November 1 is All Saints' Day, a "holy day of obligation" for Roman Catholics, so having the election on Nov. 1 was considered unfair to Catholics:

http://www.slate.com/articles/news_and_politics/explainer/2000/11/why_are_federal_elections_held_the_first_tuesday_in_november.html

[Winter's Knight]

AP:

Not a big deal, but this is not correct. Election day is the first Tuesday after the first Monday of November. Therefore it is always the Tuesday between Nov 2 and Nov 8. I don't remember why that rule is in place, or if they even had a reason.

From wiki:

The actual reasons, as shown in records of Congressional debate on the bill in December 1844, were fairly prosaic. The bill initially set the national day for choosing presidential electors on "the first Tuesday in November," in years divisible by four (1848, 1852, etc.). But it was pointed out that in some years the period between the first Tuesday in November and the first Wednesday in December (when the electors met in their state capitals to vote) would be more than 34 days, in violation of the existing Electoral College law. So, the bill was amended to move the national date for choosing presidential electors forward to the Tuesday after the first Monday in November, a date scheme already used in the state of New York.

In 1845, the United States was largely an agrarian society. Farmers often needed a full day to travel by horse-drawn vehicles to the county seat to vote. Tuesday was established as election day because it did not interfere with the Biblical Sabbath or with market day, which was on Wednesday in many towns.

[Fez]

Remember when I said yesterday that GM was getting awfully pissed off at Romney over his new ads attacking the auto-bailout? Turns out they were just getting started:

Martin, the GM representative, said Romney's ads show that the candidate is "bereft of any fundamental understanding of the global automotive industry.

Yeah, somehow I don't think trying to "expand the map" into Michigan is going to work out so well for Romney.

[Whoring Drunkard]

Remember when I said yesterday that GM was getting awfully pissed off at Romney over his new ads attacking the auto-bailout? Turns out they were just getting started:

Yeah, somehow I don't think trying to "expand the map" into Michigan is going to work out so well for Romney.

And yet, the two most recent polls in Michigan, a state that has not been heavily polled, show a tie and Obama +3. Romney certainly does not have FL or VA locked up, but I'm starting to get nervous about states that Obama should have locked up. The campaign is sending Clinton to Minnesota and Biden to Pennsylvania today.

[Guest]

It's just one poll, of course, but here's an an encouraging poll for Obama.

This GM gambit may bite Romney. It ought to. What cynicism.

[aimlessgun]

I get that some people may be dumb enough to be fooled by the flyers. But criminy, it was rammed through our heads in school that the election is always the first Tuesday of November.

Alright, this horse is pretty dead and should be left alone, but I do feel obligated to point out that I went to school in the US from 7th grade to the end of high school and don't remember a single instance of being taught this.

[Fez]

And yet, the two most recent polls in Michigan, a state that has not been heavily polled, show a tie and Obama +3. Romney certainly does not have FL or VA locked up, but I'm starting to get nervous about states that Obama should have locked up. The campaign is sending Clinton to Minnesota and Biden to Pennsylvania today.

The campaign isn't taking anything for granted, as they shouldn't. As for those two most recent Michigan polls however, they're jokes. FMW/Baydoun were the folks who put out a poll over the summer that had Romney at +15 (yes, Fifteen!) in Florida and the Glengariff Group (who did the Detroit News poll) are a tiny market research firm that has almost no prior experience polling.

There's no reason to not believe that the 3 polls taken in mid-October, so well after the first debate, which show Obama at either +10, +6, or +9, isn't where that race is.

ETA: In fact, Nate Silver actually did a piece on FMW/Baydoun back in August when they also put out a poll showing a tie in Michigan about why their methodology sucked (although not as bad as Mitchell Research, which seems to have disappeared). He also said elsewhere that they have a house effect of about R+10, which means a tie for them is roughly equal to a poll from someone else showing Obama at +10

[Edda van Heefmstra Ruston]

So, is the election on November 8th?

Wow, I can read Spanish!

No, and that's the point.

[Fez]

Oh and by the by, the Miami Herald just put out a poll showing Obama+2 in Florida. By my count that means that of the past six polls in the state, two have shown Obama+2, two have shown Obama+1, and two have shown a tie.

[Fragile Bird]

<snip>

You won't hear any arguments from me regarding how disgusting voter supression techniques are. How to get unmotivated voters out to vote is a good topic for another thread. You may or may not recall that I said I'm reaching the point where I'd like to see voting being mandatory, or at the very least, rewarded in some way by a tax credit. A flyer with the wrong date on it isn't going to prevent an unmotivated voter from voting, they are still not going to vote. A motivated voter is going to look at the flyer and say, that date is wrong, or if that doesn't click immediately, give them the benefit of the doubt that they are going to notice the error even if their native language isn't English. And even if their native language is English. The flyers in Florida came to light precisely because those Spanish speaking recipients looked at it and said, what bullshit is this, and complained.

And you know, it could have been a genuine error.

No, and that's the point.

Mea culpa - I didn't use the [] symbol at the end of my post, or at least an emo. I will go correct that now, There is such a thing as sarcasm layered on sarcasm.

And by the way, Nestor, are you a Republican, voter suppression specialist? Because golly gee, I think you are guilty of deliberatly misinforming any Spanish reading Board participants on the date of the election. What if someone misses voting because they saw your thread title and said to themselves, oh, yeah, the 8th. Shame on you! :)

[Fez]

And there are definitely unmotivated, uninformed voters out there who still plan on voting in this election. These voter suppression efforts are aimed at getting them to not vote. And any effort designed to keep people from voting, for whatever reason, is wrong, full stop. I don't believe in punishing gullible, uninformed, unmotivated people by telling them it's their own fault they didn't know when to vote, just like I don't believe in telling gullible fraud victims that it's their fault they let themselves be defrauded.

Its true. When I was out on a voter registration drive I met a woman who was registered and definitely wanted to vote, but she didn't know when or where to vote. Hell, she didn't even know what the voting age was! She asked if her 16-year old son could get registered.

She was, to be nice, an extremely low information voter; it doesn't change the fact that she has a right to vote and knew she wanted to vote.

[Sci-2]

Remember when I said yesterday that GM was getting awfully pissed off at Romney over his new ads attacking the auto-bailout? Turns out they were just getting started:

Yeah, somehow I don't think trying to "expand the map" into Michigan is going to work out so well for Romney.

I liked the line that Romney must be in some parallel universe.

eta:

She was, to be nice, an extremely low information voter; it doesn't change the fact that she has a right to vote and knew she wanted to vote.

A lot of people caught up in cyclical poverty are going to have trouble keeping track of when the day is - I forgot simply because I know I can look it up easily.

It's worse if you are new to this country and have an implicit trust of the gov't that Repubs betray.

[dalThor]

Remember when I said yesterday that GM was getting awfully pissed off at Romney over his new ads attacking the auto-bailout? Turns out they were just getting started:

Yeah, somehow I don't think trying to "expand the map" into Michigan is going to work out so well for Romney.

He's running a controversial Jeep ad in Ohio stating 'Italian-owned' Chrysler will move jobs to China despite it having been repeatedly denied by Chrysler. That ad is surprisingly not running in Michigan.

As WD pointed out, two Detroit news outlets, one of the TV stations and one of the newspapers, commissioned their own poll and it showed Obama and Romney at 47.7% and 45% respectively.

I hope Florida is indeed still in play. If, somehow, my absentee ballot isn't "lost" I'd like to see it worth something. My ballot for the primary was confirmed received but when I checked the Supervisor of Elections website it never showed up as having been counted.

As far as the language thing goes. While I do think an informed voter will know when the actual election will be held, I would say that as a person living in a country which does not use his native language I would refer to anything in English prior to reading anything printed in Greek. While my Greek is just dandy regarding such things English is just simply easier.

[Meshman]

Its true. When I was out on a voter registration drive I met a woman who was registered and definitely wanted to vote, but she didn't know when or where to vote. Hell, she didn't even know what the voting age was! She asked if her 16-year old son could get registered.

She was, to be nice, an extremely low information voter; it doesn't change the fact that she has a right to vote and knew she wanted to vote.

In North Carolina you can register as early as 16: http://ncelectioncon...ering-to-vote/

They cannot vote until the year they turn 18 (can vote in a primary at 17 if they will turn 18 by the general election.) I personally registered two individual who were 16, but advised them clearly that they could not vote until they turned 18 which they both understood.