Aegon is real version 4

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Let´s continue :)

Thread 3

Thread 2

Thread 1

Since team “Aegon is real” has been repeating their arguments for 4 threads, only to be questioned immediately again what their arguments are, I’ve decided to put them all in one post. I shall try to cover everything, though, should you, from team “Aegon is real” notice I’ve left something out, post it, and I shall edit it in. In the same spirit, should you, from team “Aegon is fake”, believe there is an important argument from your team which isn’t discussed in here, please do so tell as well, I shall do my best to answer it.

Important to know before you start reading, this post does not only discuss the evidence, it also discusses the logical explanations to the issues from the point of view of rAegon supporters that come to mind when discussing this topic.

Please read the entire text before responding. Perhaps a question that will come to mind when reading the beginning of the post will be answered at the end.

Though some details in the answers from Team rAegon differ from person to person, I think what I write here is the opinion on the matter shared by most in Team rAegon.

The official story

The official story is that Ser Gregor Clegane entered Maegor’s Holdfast, and found Princess Elia with her son Aegon in the nursery. The babe was ripped away from Elia and his head was dashed against a wall. Around the same time, Ser Armory Lorch was one floor below, finding Princess Rhaenys in the chambers of the late Prince Rhaegar. Rhaenys was stabbed half a hundred times, until she died. Both children were later presented to Robert Baratheon and his men by Tywin Lannister, who had dressed the children in crimson cloaks, so the blood wouldn’t show that much. Kevan Lannister, who was present, later recalls that the girl was Princess Rhaenys without a doubt, but that the head of the babe was unrecognizable, and only a little bit of fair hair could be seen. Nevertheless, Tywin Lannister claimed the babe was Prince Aegon, and the Targaryen reign was ended.

Seventeen years later, however, Master of Whispers Varys and his Pentoshi friend Illyrio Mopatis claim that Varys had switched Prince Aegon with a babe he had bought in Pisswater Bend in KL. Varys claims he has given the Pisswater Prince to Elia, and took the real Prince Aegon away with him, to transport him across the Narrow Sea once everything was safe again. Prince Aegon has been raised on a poleboat in the later years of his life, undergoing extensive training on languages, history, and arms. The young Prince and those who helped keep him safe plan to invade Westeros when the Seven Kingdoms are at their weakest, and take the Iron Throne, making Aegon their new king.

This story has been the subject of many discussions. Prince Aegon, living and whole, has been introduced in aDwD, the 5^th book of the series. But even before Dance was released, there were many people who were doubting if Aegon had truly died. In addition to those doubts, GRRM has never confirmed the death of baby Aegon, only the death of his young sister, Princess Rhaenys

The baby swap

Is a baby swap even possible? Is the first question that has to be asked in regards to the official story. And the answer to that is “Yes, the baby swap is possible”.

We see this in Feast and Dance, where the baby of Gilly is switched with the baby of Dalla, to keep both children safe. Sam, though he had spent a lot of time around Gilly and her babe, doesn’t notice this switch for a long time. At Castle Black, until now, no one has noticed the switch either. This shows that even those who spend a lot of time around a babe do not necessarily have to be able to notice that a child has been switched.

The Princess and the Queen has shown us something else: there, the master of whispers was able to sneak out King Aegon II, who was heavily being drugged with milk of the poppy due to his injuries, Princess Jaehaera, who was “a simple child” (make of that what you will), and Prince Maelor, a two year old child. This happened during the take-over of KL, with Maegor’s Holdfast filled with people, though, also with a lot of chaos around.

During the Sack of KL, there were fewer people in Maegor’s Holdfast, due to the fact that the Targaryens had been fighting a war (and they were losing). Mind you, there were still servants around though. But again, there was chaos.

The follow-up question to this is simple: Why only switch Aegon? Why not also switch Rhaenys? Or why not take Aegon, Rhaenys and Elia all together and sneak them out, as had been done to Aegon II, Jaehaera and Maelor 153 years before?

Why not switch Rhaenys? Rhaenys was a 3 year old girl. When she was born, the Lannisters were still in KL. Besides that, it would have been impossible to find a child who would look enough like her to fool the likes of Tywin Lannister, Grand Maester Pycelle, and any other servant in the Red Keep who had daily contact with the little Princess.

Why not take Aegon, Rhaenys and Elia all together out of the Red Keep, without leaving a look-a-like? As the Princess and the Queen shows us, when people know you’re missing, they will keep looking for you. Rhaenyra and her team kept searching for Aegon II and his children, and Robert and his rebels would have kept searching for Aegon, Rhaenys and Elia if they had simply disappeared.

In addition, how cruel it may sound, Elia was a woman, and by herself, she was nothing. Robert and his rebels had no reason to hurt her. Her death could not have been foreseen. In the same line, Rhaenys was simply a girl as well. If anything, Robert could have used her to make his reign more powerfull, by marrying her to his future heir. She could also have been used as hostage, to keep the remaining Targaryen loyalists at Dragonstone at bay, and force Rhaella and Viserys into surrender.

Elia and Rhaenys did not need to have been hurt, their lives would have served the rebels more than their deaths.

But, this Aegon has a different eye colour? Rhaegar’s eyes were dark purple and Aegon’s are a lighter purple.

Rhaegar had dark indigo eyes, Viserys had lilac eyes, and Daenerys has violet eyes. Three completely different shades of purple, yet they have the same two parents. Though Aegon’s appareance cannot be used to prove he’s a real Targaryen (there are many people with Valyrian colouring, aka hair and eye colour, in the Known World), the fact that Aegon has a different shade of purple for his eye colour does not prove he’s a fake dragon either.

How could Varys know Aegon’s face would be smashed beyond recognition by Gregor?

He couldn’t have, and he wouldn’t have.

Like I said, if no body was found, the search for Rhaegar’s son would have continued. In addition, there was a wildfire plot, which would have destroyed the entire city. But wildfire is a treacherous thing, you can’t control it. It goes where it wants to go. Aerys wanted the city to become his funeral pyre, and the Red Keep was his home, it was the place where it was going to happen most of all. Aegon’s body would have been burned beyond recognition. The wildfire plot being stopped by Jaime was something Varys hadn’t anticipated. Gregor smashing Aegon’s head in made up for that.

When would Varys have found his substitute?

In between the Trident and the Sack passed two full weeks, in those two weeks Varys could have found a child with the right colouring. The child itself would be about a year old as well. But in reality, Varys had lots of more time.

In fact, the war had been going on for almost a year as well. Varys could have searched for a substitute baby for all that time, and once he found one, kept an eye on it, to ensure he knew of the child’s whereabouts when he needed it.

There is no reason why Varys would have only thought to find a baby after Rhaegar died at the Trident. The Wildfire Plot was being plotted for a while already, and before that, Robert being a threat had been obvious for quite some time. There are still some people with Valyrian looks in KL. And should Varys not have been able to find one, Illyrio, Across the Narrow Sea, could have provided him with a babe bought at a slave auction if necessary. They were already working together, Varys already had his little birds back then, and according to GRRM, the little birds are provided to Varys the way they are.

Would Elia truly stay with a babe that is not her own, while Rhaenys was in danger somewhere else?

There are several possibilities here. The way Aegon tells it himself, Elia was aware of the switch. I can’t see it any other way anyway, a mother will always know her child, there was no fooling Elia.

So why stay with a babe that wasn’t hers and not go to Rhaenys, her own daughter? Like I said, there are a few options. But most importantly, we don’t which condition Elia was in. Elia had been bedridden for 6 months when Rhaenys was born, and nearly died when Aegon was born. The fact that Aegon’s birth had been even worse than Rhaenys’ birth, where she was already on bedrest for 6 months, suggests that after Aegon’s birth, a longer recovery period was needed. Elia would have been on bedrest for more than 6 months. We don’t know if she had regained her strength during the Sack, which could be an important factor.

Elia was in the nursery, which seems to suggest she was at least strong enough to take herself to Aegon’s chambers, though I can imagine they were not far from her own. Though Rhaenys was a girl, and thus believed to be relatively safe (as discussed above), Aegon was a boy, and the heir to the throne, and the most likely to die. After the switch, it would be the substitute who was most likely to die. Should the substitute die, Elia would live the rest of her life knowing her son had to hide. He’d never be free to life as he wanted, and he’d have to live the rest of his life in secret. She’d never see him again.

Should the substitute live, however, Elia could ensure the safety of her own son that way. When the substitute’s head was smashed against the wall, Aegon’s fate was sealed, though he hadn’t died.

So Rhaenys stood a very good chance of surviving, and the substitute would have to survive for Aegon to have any chance of a normal life. Elia would have known this. This does not mean, however, that she would have forgotten about Rhaenys completely.

Now let’s look at Rhaenys. A scared 3 year old girl, who ran to her fathers chambers to hide. Several observations should be made: (1) Rhaegar was dead. There was no reason for anyone to search his chambers. Though servants could have been hiding there, it would not be the first place you’d look. (2) Rhaenys was 3 years old. She was capable of walking, running, and thinking, and might have been scared enough to run from her mother, to search the safety of her father, not realising he was dead, and could no longer protect her. Elia, perhaps still weak from Aegon’s birth, could not have stayed with both children, should Rhaenys have decided to run off. (3) Elia might not have wanted her children in the same room. Separating the children might give them more chance of survival. We see such tactics before. Robb uses the same tactic when mentioning that since his wife is at Riverrun, Catelyn would be safer in another castle. Tyrion uses the tactic when sending Myrcella to Dorne, and then Tommen away from KL, to prevent Stannis from killing all three of Cersei’s children, should he indeed succeed in taking KL during the Battle of the Blackwater. In the same strategy, Ellaria Sand decides to part with three of her four children in the sample chapter of Winds, “scattering her little snakes, as to better survive the carnage to come”. Telling Rhaenys to hide in one of the places the Lannister soldier would most likely not look first, fits into those tactics.

Looking at it in that light, it could explain why Elia stayed with only one child. The soldiers would look for Aegon first and foremost. Elia in Aegon’s presence could make demands, trying to ensure Rhaenys’ survival in the process, and the survival of the substitute long enough for Ned and his army to arrive at KL.

There are people still alive who knew how baby Aegon looked. Why kill Pycelle, for example, if not to ensure his silence on the matter?

It is unreasonable to believe Varys could only have killed Pycelle because Pycelle might have been able to tell if Aegon was the real Aegon or not. Pycelle was not the only maester in KL, and besides that, he was the Grand Maester, he would have had more tasks than checking on a baby every day. Naturally, it would only be logical that Pycelle helped during Aegon’s birth, and checked the baby after he was born. But once Aegon appeared healthy, there was no reason for Pycelle to check up on the child every single day. Pycelle would not have seen Aegon daily. And would an 84 year old man truly remember a birth mark he might have seen on the body of a child 17 years ago? Highly unlikely.

In addition, Jaime knew baby Aegon. He was a KG knight, and would have seen the child. However, Jaime was a guard to Aerys. He mentions how he didn’t see Rhaella daily, and Rhaella was Aerys’ wife. There is absolutely no reason that Jaime would have spend many days in the presence of Aegon, nor that he would have taken notice of how the babe looked specifically. Babies look alike, and youths like Jaime (16 and 17 years old during this time) would have had eyes for other things than screaming children.

The players: (1) Illyrio

Illyrio Mopatis is the financer behind the Aegon scheme. But why? What is Illyrio’s motivation?

About Illyrio’s motivation we know little, and much of it is speculation. He claims he has a debt of affection to repay. But affection to who?

The most obvious candidate in many theories is Serra, Illyrio’s second wife. Serra was a prostitute who, at one point in her life, worked in a pleasure house in Lys. Serra had blue eyes and golden hair streaked with silver. This appearance suggests a Valyrian descent. This is where the evidence stops. There is nothing to suggest that Serra is related to Aerion Brightflame, or to any Blackfyre, since people of Valyrian descent are very common in Lys. Serra seems not to have been the debt of affection.

The second candidate is Varys. Before Illyrio met Varys, he was only a poor bravo. After they had formed a team, however, Illyrio became incredibly wealthy, and was even allowed to marry the daughter of a cousin of the Prince of Pentos, gaining even more influence. Without Varys as his partner, Illyrio could not have managed to do such.

Illyrio seems to owe a lot to Varys. And Varys seems to be very loyal to the Targaryens (more on that below). Paying his debt of affection for Varys by helping Varys putting a Targaryen back on the Iron Throne seems logical.

But there were children’s clothes in Illyrio’s manse…

Yes, there were. And they have been partly eaten by moths, suggesting that they have not been used for a very long time, nor have they been payed attention to for a long time. The clothes were for a small child.

We know that after his exile, Jon Connington served in the Golden Company for 4 years, before he was contacted by Varys, prompting him to be caught stealing from the GC so he could be kicked out (the GC leader, Myles Toyne, was in on this ruse).

At the time of the Sack of KL, Aegon was between 12 and 14 months old. Connington, if he was introduced to Aegon immediately after he left the GC, would have met with a 5 year old Aegon. Should it have been needed that Connington indeed spend a year in Lys (where he supposedly drank himself to death after he was kicked out of the GC), he would have met with a 6 year old Aegon. A 5 or 6 year old would be a small child.

Varys would have needed to hide young Aegon until he brought in other people. Illyrio’s manse was guarded, and secured enough not to have anyone encounter the small child in the years while he lived there.

The clothes Tyrion found could easily have been Aegons, from the time he was raised in Illyrio’s manse . Nothing of this suggests that Aegon is Illyrio’s son.

The statue that Tyrion sees in Illyrio’s garden seems to be of a 16 year old boy. Illyrio himself claims it is a statue of himself, as he once was. There is nothing to indicate that Illyrio is lying, everything about him suggests that he was once a young, fit bravo. There are things pointing towards excluding the other option:

Several fAegon believers have suggested the statue is of Aegon, a boy who Tyrion estimates to be 16 years old (the same age he guesses the statue to represent). However, when Illyrio meets with Haldon and Duck, he inquires after Aegon, and the way they speak suggests that Illyrio hasn’t seen Aegon in quite a while.

“How fares our lad?” asked Illyrio as the chests were being secured. Tyrion counted six, oaken chests with iron hasps. Duck shifted them easily enough, hoisting them on one shoulder.

“He is as tall as Griff now. Three days ago he knocked Duck into a horse trough.”

Why trouble telling Illyrio how much Aegon has grown if Illyrio had seen the boy recently? And Aegon would need to have been in Pentos to have the statue made. All this indicates that the statue is not of Aegon, but indeed of Illyrio.

The players: (2) Varys

Varys is also involved in the plot. What would Varys’ motivation be?

No real motivation about Varys is known. The fAegon theories suggest that he is possibly a Blackfyre or Brightflame descendant. This seems unlikely.

The official app has confirmed Varys is actually of Lyseni descent. That opens the way to Valyrian looks for Varys. However, every single official portrait of Varys, made using GRRMs detailed descriptions, portrays Varys with BROWN eyes. Not purple or blue, as Targaryens/Blackfyres tend to have. It seems highly unlikely that the reason that Varys is involved is because he descends form the Targaryens/Blackfyres.

But why is he involved then? During the Sack, Varys counciled Aerys to keep his gates closed. He also was responsible for ensuring that Aerys joined Rhaegar to the Tourney at Harrenhal, making Aerys fear that Rhaegar was involved in a plot against him. Though there is little proof for this plot, the suspicious timing of the tourney (announced immediately after Rhaegar’s close confidant Oswell Whent visited his brother) and Rhaegars parting words to Jaime (When this battle’s done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but... well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken.) do suggest that there was something going on with that Tourney, which was only foiled because Aerys attended himself.

So Varys seems to be loyal to the Targaryens, at least to the Targaryen he considers to be the rightful ruler (Aerys then, Aegon now). This could logically be Varys’ motivation.

The mummer’s dragon

The prophecy Dany receives warns her of the mummer’s dragon. Varys claims to have been a mummer in his youth, and even if that turns out not to have been true, he is a mummer now, with all his disguised. Aegon is the dragon he is presenting. Aegon is thus Varys’ dragon. Nothing about that indicates that Aegon is fake.

In addition, in Feast, a mummer’s play starts in KL, where many noble animals try to oppose the lioness, amongst who the noble stag, who is killed. At the end of the play, a dragons egg hatches, and the dragon from it devours the lioness. This play could easily have been arranged by Varys, in which case the mummer’s dragon could stand for the actual mummer’s dragon used in the play, which would symbolize Aegon, Varys’ dragon.

The players: (3) The Golden Company

The Golden Company was founded by Bittersteel in support of the Blackfyres. However, the last Blackfyre pretender, Maelys, died about 40 years prior during the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

The Golden Company presents us with several hints:

Some contracts are written in ink, and some in blood. We learn from Tyrion that contracts can actually be signed in blood (he signs his contract with the Second Sons in his own blood). In the Theon sample chapter from Winds, we learn that Stannis signs his contract with the Iron Bank of Braavos in blood as well. This can be taken literal, and should not have to indicate that the GC will only support Blackfyres. We have absolutely no indication that Bittersteel, nor any Blackfyre, has signed a contract with the GC in his own blood.

Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon & Daenerys will give the exiles what Bittersteel and the Blackfyres never could. She will take them home

The last Blackfyre pretender is dead, and with that ended any possible Blackfyre contracts.

“It’s home they want, as much as gold.”

This we learn in Feast about the Golden Company. So the GC wants to go home, yet, they still want to be paid for it. Illyrio has lots of gold, enough to pay them with. Home, they can get by supporting the red dragons who are still at large: Daenerys and Aegon. Dany and Aegon will do what the Blackfyre’s couldn’t: they will take them home.

Also note the order in which they are mentioned. Black or red. Black first, which supports the idea that at first the GC supported the black dragon, but that now, they support the red dragon. More on this in the following paragraph.

The black iron dragon turning red with rust

The Clanking Dragon was the name of the Inn at the Crossroads a long time ago, when it still had a black, three-headed iron dragon as a sign. This sign, however, was destroyed by Lord Darry after Daemon Blackfyre rose in rebellion against King Daeron, and hacked to pieces. It was then cast into the water, and disappeared for a long time.

Until one of the dragon heads washed up again, red with rust.

There are a few parallels between the Clanking Dragon, and the Golden Company:

• Long Jon Heddle created the sign for his inn, as Bittersteel created the GC.
• The dragon sign is described as the biggest sign we have seen until now, and the Golden Company is the biggest mercenary company we have seen until now
• The inn, because of its big sign, became known far and wide, and the Golden Company is also known far and wide

The Dragon sign had once been black, just as the Golden Company once supported the Blackfyres. Then, the dragons disappeared, just as the Blackfyres died and there was no one left for the Golden Company to be loyal to. Then one of the dragons turned red, suggesting that the Golden Company's loyalty has changed into loyalty towards the Targaryens.

Originally, the sign had three heads. Three black heads were thrown away, and only one red head came back. This could be viewed as the Blackfyres who all disappeared (they all died), and now, only the red dragon (Aegon) is left.

The fact that the Golden Company agreed to support all three of the known Red Dragons at one point (they were supposed to join with Viserys, they are now supporting Aegon, they were willing to have Daenerys join them), also suggests shifted loyalty. A true Blackfyre supporter would not agree to join forces with a Targaryen (Daenerys).

The timing

None of the living members of the Golden Company would have known any Blackfyre. Maelys died 40 years prior, and there would only be few in the GC left who actually had met him at some point.

Why have loyalty to a man you have never met, nor who is still alive? He can’t give you back your hearts greatest desire. Aegon, and Dany, however, can.

Viserys and Dany

So how do Viserys and Dany fit into the plan? Dany is easy. Illyrio has already admitted she was supposed to die amongst the Dothraki. Dothraki life is hard and savage, and Illyrio seems to have been correct, seeing as how Daenerys wanted to commit suicide early on. Yet Daenerys lived, and her egg’s hatched, and so, her part in the plans Varys and Illyrio had made changed.

Viserys was supposed to take his dothraki army to the Golden Company to invade Westeros (as one of the many plans that Illyrio made went). So Viserys was supposed to weaken the Kingdoms with his army. What is fate would have been, remains unknown so far. Perhaps Varys and Illyrio would have killed him after the Iron Throne became ready for the taking, or they would have presented Viserys with Aegon and made Viserys swear alliance to Aegon. We don’t know.

And why give Dany the dragon’s eggs, if they are so valuable? Well, they were only stone eggs, and even if they were valuable, it was Illyrio who gave them to her, and he is incredibly wealthy. In addition, after Dany’s death, it would not have been difficult for Illyrio to regain possession of the eggs, either by theft from the Dothraki, or by simply trading the eggs for something the Dothraki khalasar desired (the Dothraki variant of buying and selling).

Marrying Dany to Aegon to strengthen the claim is also no indication that Aegon is a fake. Dany and Aegon both fight for the throne. Why not join them together, to remove one threat to either of their claims? It’s the easiest solution, and the most peaceful one as well. It would save the armies of both Aegon and Dany, keeping them at large to fight the other claimants to the Iron Throne.

Prophecies: (1) Dragons Old and Young

"Dragons," Moqorro said in the Common Tongue of Westeros... "Dragons old and young, true and false, bright and dark. And you. A small man with a big shadow, snarling in the midst of all."

This is one of the prophecies usually used in the fAegon/rAegon arguments. But there can be question marks put everywhere. Dragons old has two options: Maester Aemon, who, at this point in time, has either already died, or is dying, and Bloodraven, who’s sigil was a white dragon breathing red fire on a black field. Both men are old (Aemon is 102 years old, Bloodraven would be 125 or 126 years old). Dragons young seems to be easier: Daenerys is only 16, and Aegon is 18 years old. Jon, in addition, is 17. They are the three candidates for the young dragon.

Dragons true could easily apply to Daenerys. She’s a true dragon, her legitimacy cannot be questioned. The false dragons, therefor, many people have attributed to Aegon. But what if with the word false GRRM isn’t trying to point to false? The true dragon would have the meaning as in true knight, meaning, sticking to your knightly vows. Daenerys, as a true dragon, would keep to the vows she made as a queen (to rule with justice). A false dragon, in the same sense, would be a dragon who does the opposite. In that case, there is nothing pointing directly to any of the dragons in play right now, but I’d like to raise one option: Bloodraven, as Lord Commander of the Nights Watch, would have taken his vows, thereby swearing to keep out of the matters of the realm, and to serve in the Nights Watch until his death. Obviously, he’s no longer part of the Nights Watch. And obviously, he is not dead. Note, I’m not saying that it has to be Bloodraven who is the false dragon. I’m saying he’s an option for this. Because reading true and false, I immediately thought about Sansa, saying how someone isn’t a true knight. In such a sense, the false dragon could also apply to someone who is a dragon, but isn’t acting like a dragon. That brings Jon to mind, but only weakly. Jon acts more like a Stark than a Targaryen, due to him being raised like a Stark. Quentyn Martell is another candidate for the false dragon, in the sense that he wasn’t dragon enough to conquer one of the fire-breathing dragons. The point to the false dragon is, it’s not necessarily Aegon. It could be Aegon, I won’t deny that. But stating that without a doubt it can’t be anyone but Aegon is just too much speculation.

Dragons bright and dark brings other questions to mind. What’s bright and what’s dark? None of the Targaryens we have met during the story seems to fit here. The only option is to look at their live-spans. Both Aemon and Bloodraven are dying, their “light” is going out (Aemon might even already be dead at the moment the prophecy is made). Daenerys, Aegon, and possibly Jon, are still young and alive, their “lights” shining bright. Again, nothing in this indicates that Aegon is fake.

Prophecies are always difficult to read, since they can be interpretated in many ways. Though I can’t prove that Aegon is real with this, I have shown here that this prophecy can’t be used to prove that Aegon is fake either.

Prophecies: (2) Soon comes the pale mare…

Soon comes the pale mare, and after her the others. Kraken and dark flame, lion and griffin, the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon. Trust none of them. Remember the Undying. Beware the perfumed seneschal."

This prophecy of sorts is somewhat easier to read. Soon comes the pale mare obviously refers to the disease coming to Meereen, and we learn of a kraken and a dark flame (Victarion and Moqorro), a lion and a griffin (Tyrion and Jon Connington), and the sun’s son and the mummer’s dragon (Quentyn and Aegon), coming towards Daenerys. The warning here is trust none of them, but there’s nothing strange about his. Tyrion warns Aegon of the same thing.

Trust no one, my prince.

That’s the advice Tyrion gives to Aegon, and it’s the same advice Quaithe gives Daenerys. The fact that Dany is warned not to trust any of the people coming her way, is common sense. Don’t trust strangers. You don’t know what they want from you. Aegon was warned against JonCon, Illyrio, Varys, Lemore, Duck, the Halfmaester, Dany is warned against Victarion, Moqorro, Tyrion, JonCon, Quentyn, and Aegon.

All those they are warned against, want something from them. Either it’s power, or their former lands back, or gold. The warning on itself isn’t anything to raise our eyebrows.

The mummer’s dragon raises an image with Daenerys. The cloth dragon on a pole, used in mummer folly’s. As I raised above, there is an actual cloth dragons making its appearance in Feast, Cersei and Qyburn discuss it. This cloth dragon would be a reference to Aegon (so instead of the mummer’s dragon being an immediate reference to Aegon, which could also be the case). Again, this does not suggest Aegon is fake. If anything, he is called a dragon.

Small curiosities pointing towards Aegon being the real Aegon

(1) Tyrion travels with Jon Snow and has an actual discussion with him on the way to the Wall. Here, Tyrion guesses Jon’s age at 12, and Jon has to correct him: he’s 14 years old, not 12. The popular opinion is that Jon is Rhaegar’s son by Lyanna. Note how Tyrion guesses the age of Rhaegar’s son two years too young.

Tyrion then meets Aegon, who he guesses to be 15, 16 at the most. Aegon was born in 282 AC, and in 300 AC, when Tyrion meets him, the boy would be 17 turning 18. Again, Tyrion would be guessing him two years too young.

So Tyrion would guess the ages of both of Rhaegar’s son wrongly by guessing them two years too young. Coincidence? Perhaps, but it has made my senses being wide awake.

(2) Kevan Lannister was present in KL when the bodies of the Targaryen children were presented to Robert. At the time, he believed Tywin without a doubt: the dead child had to be Aegon Targaryen. How could it not be? But the fact that Kevan, more than all the other men on the Small Council, seems to question the identity of the dead child he saw with his own eyes, should count for something. If Kevan doubts, he who was present when the child was shown, it is only natural that those who weren’t present will start to doubt as well.

(3) Varys has conversations with many people during the story. And every now and then, Rhaegar and his children pop up in conversations. But looking closely at the conversations, something catches the eye, or, better said, something seems to be missing. Four times Varys speaks of Rhaegar’s and Elia’s children. One of those times, he mentions multiple dead children. But trice, he only refers to one.

The prince is a sentimental man, and he still mourns his sister Elia and her sweet babe. – Babe, not babes

My little birds tell me that Princess Elia cried a... certain name... when they came for her. – When he came for her, not for her and her son

Rhaenys was a child too. Prince Rhaegar’s daughter. A precious little thing, younger than your girls. She had a small black kitten she called Balerion, did you know? I always wondered what happened to him. Rhaenys liked to pretend he was the true Balerion, the Black Dread of old, but I imagine the Lannisters taught her the difference between a kitten and a dragon quick enough, the day they broke down her door. – Not a single mention of Rhaegar’s son, though granted, that could be because they were discussing Ned’s daughters, not children.

In Dorne, the Martells still brood on the murder of Princess Elia and her babes. – The only instance where Varys speaks of multiple dead children.

(4) Varys’ conversation with Kevan:

“I thought the crossbow fitting. You shared so much with Lord Tywin, why not that? Your niece will think the Tyrells had you murdered, mayhaps with the connivance of the Imp. The Tyrells will suspect her. Someone somewhere will find a way to blame the Dornishmen. Doubt, division, and mistrust will eat the very ground beneath your boy king, whilst Aegon raises his banner above Storm’s End and the lords of the realm gather round him.”

“Aegon?” For a moment he did not understand. Then he remembered. A babe swaddled in a crimson cloak, the cloth stained with his blood and brains. “Dead. He’s dead.”

“No.” The eunuch’s voice seemed deeper. “He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them.”

Like has been said many times before. When Kevan says “Aegon? Dead. He’s dead.” It’s like he’s saying “Rhaegar’s son? Dead. Rhaegar’s son is dead.” Varys answers with “no”, indicating that “No, Rhaegar’s son isn’t dead. He is here.”

This is a conversation from Kevan’s point of view, and Kevan is thinking about Aegon, son of Rhaegar. Kevan has already admitted doubts about the dead child having been Aegon. Varys, here, seems to be confirming Kevan’s doubts.

(5) Especially when we’re alone…

“Some things are best left unsaid, sweetling.”

“Even when we are alone?”

“Especially when we are alone.”

This is LF speaking to Sansa. LF tells her to leave some things unsaid, in case someone might overhear. However, LF keeps explaining secret plans to Sansa, because they are alone. It seems as if LF isn’t following his own advice here. He tells Sansa what he has done (his plans involving Joffrey, for example), when they are alone, yet he is convinced you shouldn’t do things like that. LF is contradicting himself here.

Varys’ birds being present when Varys delivered his monologue to Kevan seems to be an indicator that you should never tell your secrets, even to a dying man who will take the secret to his grave. The birds might be spies for Illyrio to spy on Varys, some people have optioned. Yet, the little birds have every reason to be loyal to Varys, and none to be loyal to Illyrio.

It has been confirmed by GRRM (SSM) that the little birds are provided to Varys the way they are: knowning their letters, being able to do all the climbing and writing, without their tongues. Varys, in KL, is the one who provides for them. It is Illyrio who mutilates them, and Varys who cares for them. The presence of the little birds during the final monologue in Dance is no indicator that Varys would be necessarily lying, nor that he is only saying it to have the word be spread that Rhaegar’s son has returned.

(6) Another curiosity, should Aegon indeed be fake, he would still be known to the world as Targaryen, not Blackfyre. So the GC would still be seating a Targaryen on the throne, by name, not a Blackfyre. Not really a win for them, should they truly support the Blackfyres.

(7) Jon Connington was a friend of Rhaegar’s, and personally knew Elia Martell. So he knew both of Aegon’s parents. Having spent a significant part of his life around Rhaegar (since they were squires together), he would know Rhaegar’s looks, traits, and personality rather well. The same, but in a lesser extent, would to for Elia here. Jon Connington was presented with a 5 or 6 year old child, and having expressed his doubts about Varys, it will not do if he did not have his doubts about Varys and the child Varys would present him with. Surely, JonCon was in love with Rhaegar, and the argument “love makes blind, Jon would see what he wanted to see” is in play here. But due to his highly suspicious nature, it would be strange for Jon not to have inspected the small child before accepting the boy as Aegon. Aegon has the Valyrian looks, yes, but he will also have something of Rhaegar and Elia in his face, in his manner, in his personality. Since the appearance is the most easy to detect, I’d say that Jon would have at least considered the possibility that Varys was playing him false. Jon, however, has accepted Aegon as real. Though this does not count as prove that Aegon is real, it does add legitimacy to Aegon’s identity.

Summary:

Since everything is mingled together, I’ll put the right out evidence here in one go again. The word “evidence” should, though, taken with a special look. Nothing regarding Aegon is outright stated, that’s why we discuss it whenever possible at these kind of threads. There are only hints. These are the strongest ones pointing to Aegon being real:

1. The switch is possible enough, and even Varys finding a substitute would be possible. Tyrion encounters at least one Valyrian looking girl in the whorehouses in King’s Landing, so it’s entirely possible that there will be more Valyrian looking children in King’s Landing, especially since the Targaryens have lived there for almost 300 years, spreading their seeds as they went.
2. Illyrio obviously owes Varys a lot, and Varys seems to be loyal to the Targaryen leader (Aerys then, Aegon now). Thus Illyrio’s debt of affection could very well be for Varys. No indication that he has to be related to Aegon, adding credibility to Aegon being real.
3. The mummer’s dragon. If Varys wasn’t a real mummer when he was younger, he most certainly counts as one now. Mummer’s dragon does not equal fake dragon. It indicates a dragon presented by a mummer, the mummer being Varys. The dragon he presents is Aegon.
   Another possibility for this is the actual cloth dragon, used in a play to prepare the inhabitants for the return of Aegon. In this case, the cloth dragon (the mummer’s dragon) would represent Aegon. Both scenario’s end in the same conclusion. Again, no indication from this that Aegon might not be real.
4. A black three-headed dragon sign rusting red. It’s basic chemistry, otherwise it would never have occurred to me. Iron is not black from its own, it is painted black. Red rust would not form on top of the black, it would form instead of the black paint. The sign represents the loyalty of the GC. They were once loyal to the Blackfyre’s, but now they support the Targaryens. Further supported by their willingness to support Aegon Targaryen, Viserys Targaryen and Daenerys Targaryen each. This suggests Aegon’s legitimacy.
5. Black or red, a dragon is still a dragon. And what the GC wants is to go back home. This suggests they no longer care that it’s a red dragon they support. The red dragon can get them home, the black couldn’t.
   The black dragon is mentioned first, indicating the black dragon was who the GC first supported. The red dragon comes second in mentioning, indicating that the GC now does support the red dragon. It may be red, but it’s still a dragon.
   This again suggests legitimacy for Aegon
6. “Dragons old and young, true and false” does not, as shown, give any indication about whether or not Aegon is a fake dragon. It suggests that it’s about character, in which case it could possibly apply to Aegon as well as may others (not staying true to your vows). It simply doesn’t need to mean that Aegon is fake.
7. For the R+L=J believers, which are many, Jon is Rhaegar’s son, in that theory. That would mean Rhaegar had two sons, both of whom Tyrion at one point meets. At with both boys, Tyrion guesses them to be two years too young.
8. The fact that all the people who weren’t present when the bodies were shown to Robert are convinced that Aegon is real, yet Kevan Lannister, the one who was actually present (and in whose head we are allowed a look), seems to have doubts about the dead babe, should already raise alarm bells. If Kevan himself admits to himself several times in such a short period of time that the boy claiming to be Aegon Targaryen might actually be Aegon Targaryen, it suggests that the Lannisters were not certain of their kill. Kevan questions himself every single time when a Small Council member says that the boy is a pretender. That adds points to Aegons legitimacy.
9. Three out of four times when Varys discusses Rhaegar’s children, he mentions only a single dead child, which is Rhaenys. Though not conclusive, that does raises eyebrows.
10. Varys’ conversation with Kevan. Varys has nothing to fear, his birds would be more loyal to him than to Illyrio, and they are the only ones present, if Pycelle’s corpse doesn’t count. Who else would hear Varys speaking to Kevan? No one. This suggests that Varys isn’t lying to Kevan, adding points to Aegon’s legitimacy.
11. Jon Connington, though obviously suspicious of Varys, has accepted Aegon as being Rhaegar’s son. Though by no means conclusive, it does add some points do Aegon’s legitimacy, since Jon knew both of Aegons parents personally, and would have noticed if Aegon acted completely different from his parents, or if he looked nothing like either one of them.
12. The participation of the Golden Company itself should say something as well. In addition to the two points (4 and 5 here above) showing that the loyalty of the GC has changed, it would not serve them to seat Aegon on the Iron Throne as a Targaryen, if they were still supporting the Blackfyres. Even if Aegon was secretly a Blackfyre. Aegon, and all his descendants, would sit the throne only with the name Targaryen. How could something like this be considered a win for them? Though not adding much legitimacy to Aegon himself, it does make it less likely that Aegon is a Blackfyre.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

That was quick. The third thread lasted 3 days.

[Chatty Duelist]

That was quick. The third thread lasted 3 days.

People like debating.

[NOT A TARG I SWEAR]

AEGON IS NO LESS REAL THAN ANY OTHER CHARACTER! THIS IS A WORK OF FICTION! THIS WHOLE UNIVERSE IS DERIVED FROM A BAD TRIP GRRMS HAD AS A YOUNG ADULT! AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!

[ghosts in winterfell]

People like debating.

Indeed! In continuation, would you be so kind as to answer the question I posed in my last post?

Since you've brought up Aegon's appearance, at what point during JonCon's ADWD arc does he reflect upon how much this boy resembles the man he holds such a strong affection for?

[The Fresh PtwP]

I think he is real.

So what Varys didnt say "Aegon, son of Rhaegar" in his talk with Kevan. Who does that?

The GCs reactions to Aegon and Viserys respectively, highlight a difference in personality and position than any conspiracy IMO

Cyvasse is just cyvasse...

The logistics on the baby-swap are impressive until you read Arya's escape from KL and realize crazier stuff has gone down.

In short I personally feel that most of the evidence is reaching.

[J. Stargaryen]

I think he is real.

So what Varys didnt say "Aegon, son of Rhaegar" in his talk with Kevan. Who does that?

The GCs reactions to Aegon and Viserys respectively, highlight a difference in personality and position than any conspiracy IMO

Cyvasse is just cyvasse...

The logistics on the baby-swap are impressive until you read Arya's escape from KL and realize crazier stuff has gone down.

In short I personally feel that most of the evidence is reaching.

But why is there any evidence in the first place? Is this another one of those non-red herring red herrings?

[ghosts in winterfell]

So what Varys didnt say "Aegon, son of Rhaegar" in his talk with Kevan. Who does that?

He took the time to prattle on about all of Aegon's qualifications (none of which include actually being Rhaegar's heir), the least he could have done was confirm the story Aegon told Tyrion.

[MasterJack]

I will repeat my shit then.

Aegon IV is REAL from a blackfyre POV.

The Blackfyre thought they were the rightful heirs since part of their claim came from the idea of Dearon II not being the son of Aegon IV. The Blackfyre think they are the rightful Targaryen.

If Dearon II wasnt from the king's blood, it makes Deamon the rifghful ruler, from his line Deamon had a son named Aegon that would be Aegon V. So the current Aegon could really be Aegon VI Targaryen. He just isnt the son of Rhaegar.

[Aerys Ahai Reborn]

The logistics on the baby-swap are impressive until you read Arya's escape from KL and realize crazier stuff has gone down.

Arya's escape? Nothing to do with a baby being swapped. Crazier stuff? Sure, but can you give any examples of these that relate to the baby-swap?

The baby being swapped really is to me the crack in the theory of Aegon being Rhaegar's.

First, Varys supposedly bought, with Arbor Gold (!!!), a baby with Valyrian features in King's Landing. Not impossible I guess.

Then he had to have convinced Elia of this plot, and convince her that he could only take Aegon and not her or her daughter.

And, then Varys had to have known the baby would be brutally killed beyond recognition (or that everyone, including Jaime, who could recognize the baby would be killed). Varys knew of the wildfire plot, you say? Then why the hell was he still in the Red Keep?!

Better yet, why did Varys stay in King's Landing at all after he had possession of Aegon? He could not have known Robert would pardon him, sure, Robert seemed to have spared Barristan on the Trident, but that is all Varys had to go on, and he risked himself and Aegon, who he still needed to smuggle across the Narrow Sea, by staying. Sure, him as an inside man could be useful, but only if he is willing to risk his and Aegon's lives for the chance - someone as careful as Varys would not take that chance. (Then why did he stay at, assuming Aegon is fake? Well, he was only putting himself at risk, even if he died it might have still been possible to pull off the plot to pass off Illyrio and his sister Serra's baby as Aegon.)

And if Varys is good enough to smuggle Aegon out, and could so carefully raise him up across the Narrow Sea, then he should know he should not even leave behind a fake. That only ever would put Aegon's legitimacy in doubt. Also failing to smuggle out someone with Aegon, even just some servant, makes it impossible for anyone to confirm his legitimacy (besides the two known liars). And, why did Illyrio and Varys only contact JonCon years after he went into exile? If they had immediately, he probably would have been able to confirm their baby as Aegon.

We see in tPatQ what could and should have been done: smuggle out the lot of them and himself.

Occam's razor says it would be easier for Varys to get a baby with Valyrian features afterward, and lie that he made the baby-swap, than he having actually (known all of this, gotten a baby with Valyrian features, and) done the baby-swap.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

As promised in the previous thread, the information about the War of the Ninepenny Kings from the two RPG books, and the useful stuff about the Blackfyre Rebellions:

House Blackfyre:

House Blackfyre included the descendants of Daemon Blackfyre and plunged the Seven Kingdoms into a terrible war known as the Blackfyre Rebellion. Although defeated, the Blackfyre family continued to plague the Seven Kingdoms until the male lines was finally stamped out in the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

Aegon V Targaryen:

Aegon V, the Unlikely: Aegon gained the Iron Throne after the Great Council chose his brother Aemon, a maester, who refused the crown. As the fourth son, no one ever expected him to wear the crown, hence the name the Unlikely. In his youth, Aegon squired for a hedge knight named Ser Duncan the Tall and undertook a series of great adventures that carried the pair all over Westeros. During his reign, he saw the last of the Blackfyre Pretenders defeated in the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

Brynden Tully:

During the War of the Ninepenny Kings, Brynden left the riverlands with many other knights to fight for the Targaryens against the Blackfyre Pretenders. He fought alongside the likes of Ser Barristan Selmy and proved himself a great and worthy knight, gaining fame and renown throughout the Seven Kingdoms.

Dorne:

In the years that followed, Dorne upheld the peace, and the raids into the Dornish Marches slowed and even halted at times, though not completely. When called for help, the Dornishmen aided the Iron Throne in their struggles against the last of the Blackfyre Pretenders, fighting in the War of the Ninepenny Kings and lending ships and soldiers against the threat to the Targaryen line. Their loyalty, however, would be scarcely remembered in the dark years to come.

Aegon IV:

King Aegon IV, eldest son of Viserys II, was called "the Unworthy" due to his life of dissipation and self-indulgence. On his deathbed in 184 AL, he decreed all of his dozens of bastards by his many mistresses to be legitimate, setting the stage for the untold bloodshed to come. Known as the Great Bastards—and including the likes of Daemon Blackfyre, Aegor "Bittersteel" Rivers, and others—they and their descendants would trouble the Seven Kingdoms for five generations until the last of them perished in the War of the Ninepenny Kings.

Blackfyre Rebellion:

In 184 AL, Aegon’s eldest took the throne as King Daeron II. Known to history as "the Good," Aegon’s rule began well enough, as he peacefully annexed the troublesome realm of Dorne by taking Myriah Martell to wife and bringing many of her Dornish customs to court. Many objected to this, and rumors arose Daeron was not even Aegon’s son but rather the result of an adulterous liaison between Aegon’s queen Naerys and the legendary Aemon the Dragonknight. Given Aegon’s faithlessness, few could have blamed the queen for seeking solace outside her marriage. If the rumor was true, however, Daeron’s claim to the throne was invalid, and rulership should have passed to one of Aegon’s legitimized sons.

Chief among these was Daemon, who had been knighted by his father at age twelve and who bore the Valyrian sword Blackfyre. Known— depending on who was telling the story—as Daemon Blackfyre, Daemon the Pretender, the King Who Bore the Sword, or Daemon the Traitor, the young princeling declared himself king in 195 AL and raised his own standard, a black three-headed dragon on a red field, the reverse of traditional Targaryen arms.

Blackfyre was joined by his half-brother Aegor "Bittersteel" Rivers and many other great knights, such as Robb Reyne, Black Byren Flowers, and Ser Aubrey Ambrose, as red dragon fought black for control of Westeros. It is said Daemon was invincible in combat while wielding Blackfyre, but his end came as it does to all men, when Daeron’s son Prince Maekar and Lord Hayford brought him to battle at Redgrass Field. At first, all went well for the pretender—Hayford was slain, and Blackfyre engaged Ser Gwayne Corbray of the Kingsguard in single combat. Just as it seemed the black dragon was on the verge of victory, a second loyalist army under Prince Baelor arrived and took the rebels from the rear, known as "the Hammer and the Anvil." From there, Brynden Rivers the Bloodraven—another son of Aegon who had remained loyal to Daeron—commanded his archers, the Raven’s Teeth, to rain arrows upon the pretender’s forces. Blackfyre fell to one of the Bloodraven’s own arrows, and the black dragon’s host fled in disorder.

Bittersteel rallied the disheartened rebels and led a charge against the Raven’s Teeth, taking Bloodraven’s eye in the process, but in the end, Bittersteel’s efforts were futile. Baelor’s Dornish spearmen surrounded and destroyed the surviving rebels, though Bitterst

The War of the Ninepenny Kings:

It was not until two hundred and sixty years after the landing that the Seven Kingdoms were finally rid of the Blackfyre descendants. Maelys Blackfyre, called "the Monstrous" due to the reputed second head growing from his neck (the result, so the stories go, of his consuming his own twin in the womb), gathered a group of mercenaries, pirates, merchant lords, and adventurers known as the Band of Nine and sought to conquer Westeros. The band met with initial success, conquering Tyrosh and setting up bases along the Stepping Stones—the remnants of the old Arm of Dorne. The Targaryens met the threat decisively, however, and under Ser Barristan Selmy, they broke the conspirators on the Stepping Stones. Maelys fell to Barristan’s blade, and one of the conspirators, Alequo Adarys the Goldentongued, escaped to Tyrosh where he lived until his death six years later. The alliance dissolved and once more, the Iron Throne remained securely in the hands of the Dragonlords, but the bloody end of Targaryen rule was soon to follow.

House Yronwood:

The Yronwoods are one of the older houses in Dorne, having existed prior to Nymeria’s landing when they were minor kings in their own right. They fought against the Rhoynar and the houses that supported them, an effort that was ultimately unsuccessful. Because of this, the Yronwoods and Martells, who fought with Nymeria to unite Dorne, have often found themselves on the opposite sides of a cause. For instance, the Yronwoods sided with Bittersteel three times during the Blackfyre Rebellion.

Blackfyre Rebellion (2):

At the Redgrass Field, a pitched battle took place to determine who would hold the Iron Throne. During the course of that battle, Daemon Blackfyre and his two eldest sons were slain. His remaining sons and his half-brother Bittersteel, another of Aegon's legitimised bastards, fled to the Free Cities. They and their descendants were to trouble the Seven Kingdoms for generations until the death of the last Blackfyre Pretender, Maelys the Monstrous, during the War of the Ninepenny Kings in the reign of King Aegon V.

War of the Ninepenny Kings (2):

A pact between a motley company of sellswords, pirates and an ambitious merchant led to great torubles in the Free Cities and even the Seven Kingdoms. They were known as the Band of Nine, and they swore together to carve out a kingdom for each of them. Convinced to begin where they were strongest by the wealthy merchant Alequo Adarys, called the Goldentongue, they overran the Disputed Lands and sacked Tyrosh. With their victory they set up the Goldentongue as its tyrant. Next, they conquered the Stepstones. After this, the Band set its eyes on the Seven Kingdoms, for Maelys the Monstrous - the last of the Blackfyre Pretenders and captain of the celebrated Golden Company - laid claim to it.

Maelys was a madman who had slain his own kin. He was horrible to look upon - it was said he had devoured his twin while in the womb, resulting in his huge upper body and a small second head growing from his neck. He and his companions captured the Stepstones and intended to use it as a waypost to the Seven Kingdoms, but the Targaryens responded swiftly.

Ser Barristan Selmy slew Maelys the Monstrous on the Stepstoned, ending the Band's ambitions towards the Iron Throne. Within half a year, the Band lost the Stepstones and the Disputed Lands as well, but Alequo Adarys lingered on in Tyrosh for six more years.

[Rhaenys_Targaryen]

Arya's escape? Nothing to do with a baby being swapped. Crazier stuff? Sure, but can you give any examples of these that relate to the baby-swap?

The baby being swapped really is to me the crack in the theory of Aegon being Rhaegar's.

First, Varys supposedly bought, with Arbor Gold (!!!), a baby with Valyrian features in King's Landing. Not impossible I guess.

Then he had to have convinced Elia of this plot, and convince her that he could only take Aegon and not her or her daughter.

And, then Varys had to have known the baby would be brutally killed beyond recognition (or that everyone, including Jaime, who could recognize the baby would be killed). Varys knew of the wildfire plot, you say? Then why the hell was he still in the Red Keep?!

First of all, we see a convincing baby swap occuring in Feast/Dance, when Dalla's baby is switched with Gilly's. No one besides Gilly, not even Sam, notices the swap.

Second, we don't know where Varys exactly was during the Sack. During the exact moment of the beginning of the Sack. He was in the Red Keep before the gates were opened and the command for the wildfire plot was given, yes. But we don't know where he was after Aerys had given the commands.

And if Varys is good enough to smuggle Aegon out, and could so carefully raise him up across the Narrow Sea, then he should know he should not even leave behind a fake. That only ever would put Aegon's legitimacy in doubt. Also failing to smuggle out someone with Aegon, even just some servant, makes it impossible for anyone to confirm his legitimacy (besides the two known liars). And, why did Illyrio and Varys only contact JonCon years after he went into exile? If they had immediately, he probably would have been able to confirm their baby as Aegon.

If they hadn't found a body, no matter how burned, in the chambers with Elia's body after the fires went out, they would have known that Aegon was missing.

The child had to look like Aegon, as to not alarm any of the servants in the Red Keep. Varys couldn't have known exactly when the wildfire plot would start. He would need time to get the child out, and in that time, a baby needed to be seen in Aegon's chambers. A child that looked enough like Aegon to fool anyone who spared the child only a single glance.

As to why JonCon was only contacted after 4 years (when Aegon was 5 or 6 at least)... do you see JonCon hanging around a babe, changing his swaddling clothes? No. JonCon was not a patient man. He would not have been of any use around a babe.

[Chatty Duelist]

Arya's escape? Nothing to do with a baby being swapped. Crazier stuff? Sure, but can you give any examples of these that relate to the baby-swap?

The baby being swapped really is to me the crack in the theory of Aegon being Rhaegar's.

First, Varys supposedly bought, with Arbor Gold (!!!), a baby with Valyrian features in King's Landing. Not impossible I guess.

Then he had to have convinced Elia of this plot, and convince her that he could only take Aegon and not her or her daughter.

And, then Varys had to have known the baby would be brutally killed beyond recognition (or that everyone, including Jaime, who could recognize the baby would be killed). Varys knew of the wildfire plot, you say? Then why the hell was he still in the Red Keep?!

Better yet, why did Varys stay in King's Landing at all after he had possession of Aegon? He could not have known Robert would pardon him, sure, Robert seemed to have spared Barristan on the Trident, but that is all Varys had to go on, and he risked himself and Aegon, who he still needed to smuggle across the Narrow Sea, by staying. Sure, him as an inside man could be useful, but only if he is willing to risk his and Aegon's lives for the chance - someone as careful as Varys would not take that chance. (Then why did he stay at, assuming Aegon is fake? Well, he was only putting himself at risk, even if he died it might have still been possible to pull off the plot to pass off Illyrio and his sister Serra's baby as Aegon.)

And if Varys is good enough to smuggle Aegon out, and could so carefully raise him up across the Narrow Sea, then he should know he should not even leave behind a fake. That only ever would put Aegon's legitimacy in doubt. Also failing to smuggle out someone with Aegon, even just some servant, makes it impossible for anyone to confirm his legitimacy (besides the two known liars). And, why did Illyrio and Varys only contact JonCon years after he went into exile? If they had immediately, he probably would have been able to confirm their baby as Aegon.

We see in tPatQ what could and should have been done: smuggle out the lot of them and himself.

Occam's razor says it would be easier for Varys to get a baby with Valyrian features afterward, and lie that he made the baby-swap, than he having actually (known all of this, gotten a baby with Valyrian features, and) done the baby-swap.

It's already been repeated that.

1. Varys was counting on the Wilfire plot burning (F) Aegon's corpse so bad no one would recognize it.

2. Varys didn't need (F)Aegon to be unrecognizable, he just stole off with ®Aegon and left (F)Aegon with Elia and no one's the wiser. In fact if Aegon hadn't been found, it would add legitimacy to Young Griff.

[ghosts in winterfell]

[snip]

Occam's razor says it would be easier for Varys to get a baby with Valyrian features afterward, and lie that he made the baby-swap, than he having actually (known all of this, gotten a baby with Valyrian features, and) done the baby-swap.

This. Someone in the last thread said passing a fake off as Rhaegar's son would be too big a gamble for anyone to risk. Cersei seemed to think passing off her and Jaime's bastards as Robert's trueborn children was a risk worth taking -- hell, most of the general population still seems to buy it, even after they were exposed.

[Aerys Ahai Reborn]

As promised in the previous thread, the information about the War of the Ninepenny Kings from the two RPG books, and the useful stuff about the Blackfyre Rebellions:

House Blackfyre:

Aegon IV:

Interesting, one says male line, one says the last of the descendants perished. As for Barristan killing the "last" Blackfyre, I think that is stated a few too many times in the books, sort of setting up for the return. And also "last" can be ambiguous.

First of all, we see a convincing baby swap occuring in Feast/Dance, when Dalla's baby is switched with Gilly's. No one besides Gilly, not even Sam, notices the swap.

Yea, but that swap is nothing compared to the supposed one that Varys pulled off.

If they hadn't found a body, no matter how burned, in the chambers with Elia's body after the fires went out, they would have known that Aegon was missing.

The child had to look like Aegon, as to not alarm any of the servants in the Red Keep. Varys couldn't have known exactly when the wildfire plot would start. He would need time to get the child out, and in that time, a baby needed to be seen in Aegon's chambers. A child that looked enough like Aegon to fool anyone who spared the child only a single glance.

As I said, if Varys was good enough to smuggle out the babe, he should have not left behind a decoy - a decoy is a bad thing for later trying to prove his legitimacy. And he should have smuggled them away as soon as possible, which if he was as good as he seemed, could have been as soon as he gotten Aegon, or as soon as things started looking bad.

As to why JonCon was only contacted after 4 years (when Aegon was 5 or 6 at least)... do you see JonCon hanging around a babe, changing his swaddling clothes? No. JonCon was not a patient man. He would not have been of any use around a babe.

:bs:

He still would want to be around the baby and could add a great deal of legitimacy.

It's already been repeated that.

1. Varys was counting on the Wilfire plot burning (F) Aegon's corpse so bad no one would recognize it.

2. Varys didn't need (F)Aegon to be unrecognizable, he just stole off with ®Aegon and left (F)Aegon with Elia and no one's the wiser. In fact if Aegon hadn't been found, it would add legitimacy to Young Griff.

Ummm, thanks for not really replying to anything I said.

1. I acknowledged the possibility of Varys knowing about the wildfire plot.

2. Not sure what you're trying to say here, almost sounds like you agree with me.

[SpazzBK]

First post!!!
First off let me start by saying that I'm a skeptic, but I'm leaning toward Aegon Targ. The way I think about it:

I start from the premise given by characters that Aegon is real. I then look at all the reasons he could be fake and the evidence behind it.
Reasons:

1) Why would Illyrio help? Because Aegon is his secret son and a Blackfyre?

Exhibit A: Marriage to a women from Lys with Targ/Blackfyre features. This shows that Aegon could be Illyrio's.

Targ/Blackfyre (Read: Valyrian) features are common in the Free Cities. Think about it this way, how many people will have those features in the free cities? Hundreds possibly thousands? To a draw a conclusion that Blackfyre features in Illyrio's wife plus Illyrio equates to Aegon being llyrio's son because he has Valyrian features is erroneous. Is it not just as likely that he has those features, because he is Rhaegar's son? Yes, in fact more likely, because that is what we are told.

Probable conclusion drawn:
The wife is just common.

Exhibit B: Old children's clothes.
Proves a child lived there or at least stayed there.

Probable conclusion drawn:
Aegon lived with Illyrio for a while, but this does not prove or give weight to Aegon being his son.

Exhibit C: Illyrio statue with a likeness to Aegon

Problem: All young fit people look a like in body. Especially those in similar geographic regions due to dietary and cultural behavior.

Probable conclusion drawn:
It is just a statue.

Exhibit D: Motive: Debt of affection.
Problem:
We don't have a real motive other than what Illyrio tells Tyrion.
As a result this requires speculation on everyone's part and cannot be considered proof.
Could Illyrio be lying? Yes. Could Illyrio be telling the truth? Yes

My speculation: Illyrio is telling the truth.
Illyrio could want revenge. As has been stated, Illyrio already has money. However he no longer has the respect and influence he once had after marrying the bed slave. His debt of affection is revenge for how the others in the city treated him and his wife. What better way to get revenge than to bring down all the other magister's who have wronged him? How does he do it? Become Master of coin.

Westeros is a huge trading port. If Illyrio was master of coin he could tax the magisters (who are likely wealthy traders) that wronged him out of business or close the ports to them all together. This could bankrupt some of them and make them just as common as his wife.
Since this is pure speculation on my part, you're free to agree or disagree as you feel.

Overall conclusion:
There is really no evidence of Aegon being Illyrio's son that can't be explained in a more logically understandable way other than motive.

2) Why is Varys involved? Is he a secret Targ or a secret Blackfyre?

Exhibit A: Varys lack of hair.
Could Varys be cutting his hair to hide his roots (pun intended)?

Yes he could. However his baldness helps facilitate his ability to put on wigs and and change his appearance. This is known as a mummer's cut. With what we know about Varys it is likely he is just using this so he can get in and out of costume when needed.

Probable conclusion:
It's just a haircut used to easily facilitate costume changes when needed.

Exhibit B: Varys is from Lys which is where Brightflame was known to be and produce bastards.

Varys is from Lys along with thousands of others.
Probable conclusion:
He is just common.

Exhibit C: Baby switch.
The question is how did Varys know Clegane would bash the baby's head in.

My answer is that it does not matter. For a time all babies look a like as long as they have the right skin complexion, hair, and eyes. Varys could have found a baby in flea bottom with similar features. Further, very few would have known what the child looked like outside of the immediate family, whom were all dead by the time the baby was. The fact that Clegane, bashed his head in was icing on the cake. Also we know Varys has the means to sneak in and out of the castle and has backing to ship him to the free cities.

Possible answer:
It is very possible that Varys snuck the child out and replaced him with a look alike.

Exhibit D: Motive: For the Realm.
Varys claims to do this for the good of the realm, but constantly causes chaos. The theory goes that he must be doing it for selfish reasons other than for the good.

Motive is once again highly speculative. Could he be doing it because he is a secret Targ/Blackfyre? Possibly, but there is no evidence.

My speculation: Varys is telling the truth.
We assume Varys was feeding The Mad King's paranoia, but we don't know why. What if Varys was doing it, but for the simple purpose of getting the evil one off the throne and putting his more fit son on it before the realm bled, but failed?
This explains the feeding of the paranoia, to force Rhaegar's hand, and his continued support of the Targs, uniting the kingdoms under one banner after Robert's rebellion, which left alliances barely intact.

Overall conclusion:
There is really no evidence of Varys being a secret Targ/Blackfyre that can't be explained in a more logically understandable way other than motive.

3) Symbolisms
Exhibit A: Mummer's Dragon
The theory goes that it means that there is a fake dragon, Aegon.
However it can also be said that Varys is a mummer and Aegon is his dragon.
Possible conclusion:
Beware of Varys' real dragon Aegon.

Exhibit B: Gold Company and the contract written in blood.
The Gold Company mission is to take the Blackfyre's back to Westeros and sit a Blackfyre in the throne. If that is the case, why are they taking a Targ?

This requires a lot of speculation. All theories are possible.

My speculation:
The GC does not care anymore. They have lost. The male line is dead. Their main antagonist (Targs) are exiled. Now they just want vengeance. They want their land back, they want their titles back, and they will do it the only way they can, with a legitimate rally for the lords in Westeros through Aegon. The contract written in blood could be referring to the blood the Blackfyre's shed in the rebellions.

Exhibit C: The black dragon sign rusting and becoming red.
Could mean nothing, could stand for the GC, or it could stand for Aegon.

My thoughts:
The point of this long post is just to say that there is no evidence of a fake Aegon other than a lack of concrete motives on the part of the main conspirators Varys and Illyrio. This leaves the reader in a position to speculate. Speculation is fine and appreciated as it brings about new views. However to act as if speculation is a fact is misguided, especially when the evidence used for the speculation is questionable at best.

p.s. Sorry for the bad punctuation, spelling errors and grammar as I typed all of this on my phone.

[Chatty Duelist]

First post!!!

First off let me start by saying that I'm a skeptic, but I'm leaning toward Aegon Targ. The way I think about it:

I start from the premise given by characters that Aegon is real. I then look at all the reasons he could be fake and the evidence behind it.

Reasons:

1) Why would Illyrio help? Because Aegon is his secret son and a Blackfyre?

Exhibit A: Marriage to a women from Lys with Targ/Blackfyre features. This shows that Aegon could be Illyrio's.

Targ/Blackfyre (Read: Valyrian) features are common in the Free Cities. Think about it this way, how many people will have those features in the free cities? Hundreds possibly thousands? To a draw a conclusion that Blackfyre features in Illyrio's wife plus Illyrio equates to Aegon being llyrio's son because he has Valyrian features is erroneous. Is it not just as likely that he has those features, because he is Rhaegar's son? Yes, in fact more likely, because that is what we are told.

Probable conclusion drawn:

The wife is just common.

Exhibit B: Old children's clothes.

Proves a child lived there or at least stayed there.

Probable conclusion drawn:

Aegon lived with Illyrio for a while, but this does not prove or give weight to Aegon being his son.

Exhibit C: Illyrio statue with a likeness to Aegon

Problem: All young fit people look a like in body. Especially those in similar geographic regions due to dietary and cultural behavior.

Probable conclusion drawn:

It is just a statue.

Exhibit D: Motive: Debt of affection.

Problem:

We don't have a real motive other than what Illyrio tells Tyrion.

As a result this requires speculation on everyone's part and cannot be considered proof.

Could Illyrio be lying? Yes. Could Illyrio be telling the truth? Yes

My speculation: Illyrio is telling the truth.

Illyrio could want revenge. As has been stated, Illyrio already has money. However he no longer has the respect and influence he once had after marrying the bed slave. His debt of affection is revenge for how the others in the city treated him and his wife. What better way to get revenge than to bring down all the other magister's who have wronged him? How does he do it? Become Master of coin.

Westeros is a huge trading port. If Illyrio was master of coin he could tax the magisters (who are likely wealthy traders) that wronged him out of business or close the ports to them all together. This could bankrupt some of them and make them just as common as his wife.

Since this is pure speculation on my part, you're free to agree or disagree as you feel.

Overall conclusion:

There is really no evidence of Aegon being Illyrio's son that can't be explained in a more logically understandable way other than motive.

2) Why is Varys involved? Is he a secret Targ or a secret Blackfyre?

Exhibit A: Varys lack of hair.

Could Varys be cutting his hair to hide his roots (pun intended)?

Yes he could. However his baldness helps facilitate his ability to put on wigs and and change his appearance. This is known as a mummer's cut. With what we know about Varys it is likely he is just using this so he can get in and out of costume when needed.

Probable conclusion:

It's just a haircut used to easily facilitate costume changes when needed.

Exhibit B: Varys is from Lys which is where Brightflame was known to be and produce bastards.

Varys is from Lys along with thousands of others.

Probable conclusion:

He is just common.

Exhibit C: Baby switch.

The question is how did Varys know Clegane would bash the baby's head in.

My answer is that it does not matter. For a time all babies look a like as long as they have the right skin complexion, hair, and eyes. Varys could have found a baby in flea bottom with similar features. Further, very few would have known what the child looked like outside of the immediate family, whom were all dead by the time the baby was. The fact that Clegane, bashed his head in was icing on the cake. Also we know Varys has the means to sneak in and out of the castle and has backing to ship him to the free cities.

Possible answer:

It is very possible that Varys snuck the child out and replaced him with a look alike.

Exhibit D: Motive: For the Realm.

Varys claims to do this for the good of the realm, but constantly causes chaos. The theory goes that he must be doing it for selfish reasons other than for the good.

Motive is once again highly speculative. Could he be doing it because he is a secret Targ/Blackfyre? Possibly, but there is no evidence.

My speculation: Varys is telling the truth.

We assume Varys was feeding The Mad King's paranoia, but we don't know why. What if Varys was doing it, but for the simple purpose of getting the evil one off the throne and putting his more fit son on it before the realm bled, but failed?

This explains the feeding of the paranoia, to force Rhaegar's hand, and his continued support of the Targs, uniting the kingdoms under one banner after Robert's rebellion, which left alliances barely intact.

Overall conclusion:

There is really no evidence of Varys being a secret Targ/Blackfyre that can't be explained in a more logically understandable way other than motive.

3) Symbolisms

Exhibit A: Mummer's Dragon

The theory goes that it means that there is a fake dragon, Aegon.

However it can also be said that Varys is a mummer and Aegon is his dragon.

Possible conclusion:

Beware of Varys' real dragon Aegon.

Exhibit B: Gold Company and the contract written in blood.

The Gold Company mission is to take the Blackfyre's back to Westeros and sit a Blackfyre in the throne. If that is the case, why are they taking a Targ?

This requires a lot of speculation. All theories are possible.

My speculation:

The GC does not care anymore. They have lost. The male line is dead. Their main antagonist (Targs) are exiled. Now they just want vengeance. They want their land back, they want their titles back, and they will do it the only way they can, with a legitimate rally for the lords in Westeros through Aegon. The contract written in blood could be referring to the blood the Blackfyre's shed in the rebellions.

Exhibit C: The black dragon sign rusting and becoming red.

Could mean nothing, could stand for the GC, or it could stand for Aegon.

My thoughts:

The point of this long post is just to say that there is no evidence of a fake Aegon other than a lack of concrete motives on the part of the main conspirators Varys and Illyrio. This leaves the reader in a position to speculate. Speculation is fine and appreciated as it brings about new views. However to act as if speculation is a fact is misguided, especially when the evidence used for the speculation is questionable at best.

p.s. Sorry for the bad punctuation, spelling errors and grammar as I typed all of this on my phone.

This.

[Jon's Queen Consort]

If Dearon II wasnt from the king's blood, it makes Deamon the rifghful ruler, from his line Deamon had a son named Aegon that would be Aegon V. So the current Aegon could really be Aegon VI Targaryen. He just isnt the son of Rhaegar.

As much as I like Daemon, for my own reasons, I don't think you are right. Both of them are Targaryens' bastards in this case.

[MasterJack]

As much as I like Daemon, for my own reasons, I don't think you are right. Both of them are Targaryens' bastards in this case.

Yes you are right, but Deamon is a king's bastard and Dearon would be the queen's bastard.

[Aerys Ahai Reborn]

I'm still waiting for evidence that Aegon is Rhaegar's.

All this theory has is the claim that Varys and Illyrio have been truthful to JonCon, a man who wants to believe what they tell him. And yes, it is a theory that Aegon is Rhaegar's, no matter how many times you say it is not and that it is a fact - saying so don't make it so.

As I said: Occam's razor says it would be easier for Varys to get a baby with Valyrian features afterward and lie that he made the baby-swap, than he having actually known beforehand to plot it all out, getting a baby with Valyrian features, and doing the baby-swap.

We also have been told for 4 books that Aegon is dead, and the claim that he is alive in the fourth book ultimately go back to two known liars, and the claim (by JonCon) is doubted by characters in the book.

So there is a burden of proof on those who claim Aegon is Rhaegar's. If you refuse to accept this, then there is no point in anyone to argue with you and no way for you to convince others of the theory who do not accept there is no burden of proof on you, and thus this thread is pretty pointless.

(Not that this necessarily means those who claim Aegon is fake do not have a burden of proof too, but in my opinion not as great of one.)