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The Ukraine II: Oof, яight in the bяeadbasket!


Yagathai

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Congratulations, you spotted a specimen from the Euromaidan's air rifle collection.

:blushing:

I knew I should have paid more attention in the gun recognition classes at school.

Still I don't see how it changes the argument since you have it seems conceded that the protesters in Kiev were armed with guns and are now drawing the line based on your assumptions about variation in the quality and quantity of armament.

The activity of course remains the same organised armed groups seizing state property.

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FN,

In a military contest between the US and Russia... everybody loses.

A non-nuclear military contest between Russia and the US would probably be nearly as bad as a short nuclear exchange for global stability. Because it would demonstrate nuclear powers can engage in limited hostilities without broadening into a larger the-world-is-over scenario. The bomb's use as a deterrant force would be broken. Next thing you know, the Germans are in Alsace-Lorraine, the Queen decides she wants to reassert claims to Normandy and Gascony, newly-independent-from Spain Catalonia takes French Catalonia and France is dismembered!

Iceman,

Let me rephrase, in a military conflict between the US and Russia almost everyone loses including most people posting here.

I'd be fine. Nuclear war is over-rated its devestation, largely because the chief-targets are the enemy's nuclear weapons. You're going to want to lob as many missiles at them as possible to prevent your own destruction.

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:blushing:

I knew I should have paid more attention in the gun recognition classes at school.

Still I don't see how it changes the argument since you have it seems conceded that the protesters in Kiev were armed with guns and are now drawing the line based on your assumptions about variation in the quality and quantity of armament.

The activity of course remains the same organised armed groups seizing state property.

One more time: this is a small group of heavily armed, well-trained men who struck overnight and have issued no demands. Doesn't that strike you as just a little bit different to tens of thousands of people taking buildings in the course of months of protest?

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FN,

In a military contest between the US and Russia... everybody loses.

Agreed. I'm not calling for that by any means. I just admire a decisive leader who gets shit done, like Putin. Even though he is in charge of the enemy.

And I'm not a fan of the EU. I kind of enjoy it when he sticks it to the EU. My preferred outcome here would be Russia annexing the Crimea and the EU backing down like a whipped cur. And no lives lost as a consequence.

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I just admire a decisive leader who gets shit done, like Putin.

I've read articles that indicate Putin's internal control over the Russian bureaucracy is actually pretty weak. He puts on an authoritarian show for his own people and the world, but his actual power over his government is weak.

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Nope, just saying that the armament of the protesters doesn't remotely compare to what appears to be in the hands of the guys who stormed the Crimean parliament.

(though many of the guns in those images don't fire live ammo)

The ones in Crimea are armed to the teeth. They'll need special forces to root those guys out.

ETA: According to the Moscow Times these guys are part of a self-defense unit set up by the Russian speaking peoples of Crimea.

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I've read articles that indicate Putin's internal control over the Russian bureaucracy is actually pretty weak. He puts on an authoritarian show for his own people and the world, but his actual power over his government is weak.

Yeah this image of Putin in the eyes of credulous Westerners is amusing. Putin's so decisive that he decided himself out of deciding to jail Alexei Navalny in a matter of days. He's so good at getting things done that the Russian government has been completely freed of corruption and the economy is totally reforming away from its reliance on petroleum rents. No really, they're just running those anti-corruption drives for fun, now.

Actually, Putin's role inside the Russian ruling elite is to act as an honest broker between the various 'clans' amongst and between the security services, oligarchs, technocrats and the like. He has the final say for as long as he can convince them that his stewardship works for them. He's good at this because he's a master tactician and advances with caution, but the big tasks, the tough choices elude him because of this approach - they close off options and offend powerful interests. That's Putin, that's Putin's Russia.

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One more time: this is a small group of heavily armed, well-trained men who struck overnight and have issued no demands. Doesn't that strike you as just a little bit different to tens of thousands of people taking buildings in the course of months of protest?

One more time: No.

The Seizure in Simferopol is a response to the events in Kyiv and informed by them as to what constitutes justified and effective tactics, or at least what constitutes justified and effective tactics when carried out by groups that have the Horza seal of approval.

I suppose I might be moved to applaud the greater efficiency of the Crimean groups but I do not see their actions as qualitatively different.

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One more time: No.

The Seizure in Simferopol is a response to the events in Kyiv and informed by them as to what constitutes justified and effective tactics, or at least what constitutes justified and effective tactics when carried out by groups that have the Horza seal of approval.

I suppose I might be moved to applaud the greater efficiency of the Crimean groups but I do not see their actions as qualitatively different.

The question isn't of approval, what I've questioned is the equivocation between the two groups in the light of significant differences in method. We don't even know who these people are. Throughout you've asserted that they're protesters, but I'm wary of defining people with that level of weaponry and coordination that way, especially when they aren't identifying themselves or communicating their aims.

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I'm sure those patriots who have taken up purely defensive positions at the Simferopol parliament have absolutely nothing to do with the Russian naval base at Sevastopol, the Russian naval brigade based in the Crimea or even the legitimately wealthy Russians who own villas on the Crimean Riviera. They are certain to be the entirely independent, autonomous actions of genuinely local citizens who purely fortuitously just happen to be well armed and trained, as of course so many loyal patriots are everywhere.


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The question isn't of approval, what I've questioned is the equivocation between the two groups in the light of significant differences in method. We don't even know who these people are. Throughout you've asserted that they're protesters, but I'm wary of defining people with that level of weaponry and coordination that way, especially when they aren't identifying themselves or communicating their aims.

They were quoted as saying that they did not have the authority to negotiate but the sign they displayed and the flag they raised on the roof hints to what they are about I would think.

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They were quoted as saying that they did not have the authority to negotiate but the sign they displayed and the flag they raised on the roof hints to what they are about I would think.

See, that's pretty weird. Normally when you take prominent state property you say why and what it will take for you to vacate said premises. Instead these guys threw a stun grenade at journalists. Uso wants to contrast them with groups like Right Sector, but even those guys do press.

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Horza, we can refer to them as the laconic-really-quite-well-organised-and supplied-armed groups and the loquacious-slightly-less-well-supplied-and-only-somewhat-organised armed groups if you prefer, though the acronyms are going to be hell to pronounce.



Ser Scot, would my opinion change if the LRQWOASA turned out to be serving members of the armed forces of a foreign power? Astonishingly enough, yes.



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Horza, we can refer to them as the laconic-really-quite-well-organised-and supplied-armed groups and the loquacious-slightly-less-well-supplied-and-only-somewhat-organised armed groups if you prefer, though the acronyms are going to be hell to pronounce.

Ser Scot, would my opinion change if the LRQWOASA turned out to be serving members of the armed forces of a foreign power? Astonishingly enough, yes.

Hehe. I like this. Quite humorous.

Basically, I think the Russians are just more organized, and well experienced in Machiavellian tactics.

Those armed guys in the Crimea are probably Russian backed agents. Good for them, if so. They're just pursuing their strategic interests.

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