Ukraine VI: Crimea in the Center (AKA Putin's) pocket

[Solmyr]

What the hell are you talking about? The question was WHY were Russians a majority in Crimea. The answer is: because they replaced hundreds of thousands of Crimean Tatars deported from Crimea by Stalin. Stating a fact, simple as that. What logic would that be you're implying I'm using?

Claiming that the current predominance of one ethnicity in any given region should be immaterial when that region seeks independence and instead trumped by historical predominances of other ethnicities in that region, puts in question the legitimacy of most modern countries, whose ethnic majorities got to be majorities in this region by killing or driving away the local populace. One of the most recent examples of the latter being the USA, which was founded under the guise of smallpox-infested blankets.

[Clueless Northman]

but borders were, even though those borders were administrative, and not reflecting borders of those countries before the union. That is, even those borders were eventually violated in case of Serbia, and I suspect the same would happen to Russia (Chechnya) if Russia didn't prevent it.

Oh. I'm not sure strictly adhering to borders is the best way of letting part of a country go. Will be fun with Catalonia - where, ironically, the independantists clearly state they'd like to take a bigger chunk of Spain with them. Would be hysterical in Belgium if Flanders really decided to leave.

Which makes me think that if Putin wanted to mess with EU, he should just give money to Catalonia and recognize it as an independant nation as soon as they declare it - which would very probably not respect Spanish Constitution if it happened.

Which is why meddling with Ukraine like EU did was stupid beyond measure; the consequences (for Ukraine, now carved up, for Europe and the West, for Russia, for the world and its global order) are terrible and we probably have only seen the beginning.

[DanteGabriel]

I'm sure China is not displeased at the rift between Russia and the West.

I read a pretty good article that explains why China's position in particular is awkward:

On the one hand is a strong reluctance to stand with the West against Moscow – a strategic partner that never openly criticizes China. But on the other is the cardinal principle of Chinese foreign policy – noninterference in the internal affairs of other countries.

Beijing is not exactly fudging it: Foreign Ministry spokesman Qin Gang said plainly last Sunday, when the first reports of Russian armed intervention in Crimea were coming in, that “we respect the independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity of Ukraine.”

But neither has China condemned Russia’s actions; officials here equivocate when they are invited to join the Western chorus of outrage.

It is easy to see why China is so insistent on the principle of noninterference: the government is worried about foreigners meddling in China’s own border provinces, such as Tibet and Xinjiang, where Beijing is unsure of local peoples loyalties.

Chinese leaders are especially displeased by the referendum that the Crimean parliament has called for March 16 to choose whether the autonomous region should break away from Ukraine and join Russia.

“That would be like Taiwan’s destiny being decided only by Taiwanese,” says Jin Canrong, a professor of international studies at Renmin University in Beijing. That would be anathema to Beijing, which insists that Taiwan – a self-governing island – is an integral part of China.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2014/0307/China-to-Russia-You-re-putting-us-in-a-tight-spot

[Lummel]

I am rather distressed by the fact that both sides of the ongoing debate (pro-Russian and pro-Western) seem to be more fond of discussing anything but what's actually happening in Ukraine - the country the thread (and its previous editions) are about. News, such as the actions of the Svoboda party, are not commented at all...

There are bad things happening in Ukraine right now. Little of it is reported, but what comes out is really scary...

Yes, it is worrying, I agree with Kitten Guard

...No what Russia did in Crimea does not help with Kiev. The action that helps more the Fascists that are in the new government since it produce the environment were they can thrive since yes their territorial integrity was violated and you have the possibility of other area in the East Ukraine that want to do the same which is an existential threat. I do think Putin will have a responsibility if the Fascists gain greater power in the country. This is provoking an Existential crisis in Ukraine and the most extreme elements thrive in those events and should be a consideration...

and worry that events in Crimea will play into the narratives of far-right and fascist groups / parties in Ukraine. It looks pretty bleak, particularly if success for far-right / fascist groups plays into the Kremlin's narrative of Kiev as a threat to Russia, in which case we could be looking at an ongoing crisis between the two countries.

[Ser Loudmouth]

Claiming that the current predominance of one ethnicity in any given region should be immaterial when that region seeks independence and instead trumped by historical predominances of other ethnicities in that region, puts in question the legitimacy of most modern countries, whose ethnic majorities got to be majorities in this region by killing or driving away the local populace. One of the most recent examples of the latter being the USA, which was founded under the guise of smallpox-infested blankets.

He is right. Just because an injustice is widespread does not make it any less of an injustice. And the dominance of Russians in Crimeea (and other such regions, like Transnistria for ex., where they replaced the previous inhabitants through colonization and ethnic cleansing) is the perpetuation of a historical injustice.

Btw., speaking about injustice: There is already talk in Crimea about displacing the Tatars... again! So much for keeping it "historical".

This being said, Tatars or Ukrainians don't exactly have unassailable historical rights to the Crimea, since they all came there as invaders.

In the absence of clear historical rights, other considerations must take precedence in this situation: like the fact that Crimeea was freely awarded to Ukraine by the government in Moscow, or that Russia freely consented to the territorial integrity of Ukraine through the Budapest memorandum.

So shooting down the principle of historical rights does not help Russia's case here.

[Shryke]

Claiming that the current predominance of one ethnicity in any given region should be immaterial when that region seeks independence and instead trumped by historical predominances of other ethnicities in that region, puts in question the legitimacy of most modern countries, whose ethnic majorities got to be majorities in this region by killing or driving away the local populace. One of the most recent examples of the latter being the USA, which was founded under the guise of smallpox-infested blankets.

Something no one will defend as a good thing.

Ethnic nationalism is not a good thing.

I read a pretty good article that explains why China's position in particular is awkward:

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Asia-Pacific/2014/0307/China-to-Russia-You-re-putting-us-in-a-tight-spot

China is not happy with this shit. Unilateral secession by semi-autonomous regions is not a norm they want established. Neither is the violation of territorial integrity.

I mean, Russia shouldn't like this shit either but considering they claimed no Russian troops in Crimea, we can safely assume they don't care what anyone else thinks.

[Shryke]

Except Russian aggression is a thing of the 2000s, while NATO expansionism is a thing of the 1990s. One could make the case that Putin's belligerence is the reaction to this expansion, because he clearly feels he's being targetted and surrounded by NATO, and tries to keep a buffer between NATO and Russia proper.

Like Roose said, NATO should've been expanded enough to include Russia herself or should've been disbanded in the 1990s.

One could make this claim, but one would be utterly silly to do so.

NATO expansion is only threatening to Russia because it blunts Russia's ability to exert power and influence over it's neighbours.

The fact that NATO expansion pissed off Russia is the very proof that NATO expansion is not responsible for Russian belligerence because NATO expansion is only threatening to Russia if they are already belligerent.

And the same thing works for the argument that NATO should have been disbanded. This incident is proof that it shouldn't have been. And, like above, so is Russian anger at NATO itself.

[Shryke]

Anyway, news:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26645477

Here's the attack by Svobda mentioned earlier:

12:49:

Video has emerged of what appears to the head of Ukraine's state TV company being beaten up in his offices by MPs from the far-right Svoboda party. After roughing up Aleksandr Panteleymonov, the men force him to sign his resignation. Euronews says one of those involved in the assault is the deputy head of Ukraine's committee on freedom of speech.

12:51:

Svoboda were a key part of the protests against President Yanukovych and have since taken several positions in government, to the alarm of some Ukrainians.

12:56:

Dunja Mijatovic, media freedom representative at the OSCE, said she was "appalled" by the "outrageous" attack on Ukraine's state TV chief. It "goes against all media freedom values and cannot be tolerated,"she said in a statement.

12:57:

"This is a particularly serious incident as some attackers not only represent the legislative branch of power, but also are members of the freedom of speech and information committee of the Parliament," said Dunja Mijatovic.

Not nice people, if you didn't know that before.

[Shryke]

So, general shit that's been going down:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26645477

Russia's neighbours freaking out:

12:58:

US Vice President Joe Biden has said the US will defend any Nato members against aggression and warned that Russia was on a "dark path" to isolation over its actions in Ukraine. Mr Biden was speaking in Lithuania amid fears in the Baltic states that Russia might not stop at annexing Crimea.

14:05: Bulgaria's president, Rosen Plevneliev, tells the BBC he shares the concerns of his eastern European colleagues that Russia might be tempted to annex parts of other countries.

"What about Lithuania? What about Estonia? We do have Russian communities and minorities there. Is it possible in [the] 21st Century that they can call Moscow and Moscow will send troops and occupy and annex some part of their territory. Is that possible?"

For good reason:

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/19/us-russia-estonia-idUSBREA2I1J620140319

Russia signaled concern on Wednesday at Estonia's treatment of its large ethnic Russian minority, comparing language policy in the Baltic state with what it said was a call in Ukraine to prevent the use of Russian.

Russia has defended its annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by arguing it has the right to protect Russian-speakers outside its borders, so the reference to linguistic tensions in another former Soviet republic comes at a highly sensitive moment.

Russia becoming increasingly isolated and Ukraine running the fuck away from them:

13:08:

Ukraine is resigning the rotating chairmanship of the Commonwealth of Independent States, a Moscow-led regional alliance which comprises most of the former Soviet republics, and is considering leaving it altogether, says Ukrainian Foreign Ministry spokesman Yevhen Perebyynis. (Interfax-Ukraine via BBC Monitoring)

13:09:

Russia may restrict foreign companies' involvement in oil and gas exploration off the coast of Crimea, Russian Deputy Minister for Natural Resources and Environment, Denis Khramov, has told Russian state news agency RIA Novosti. Under Russian law, only majority state-owned companies can be involved in exploring reserves classed as being of "federal importance", the agency says. (BBC Monitoring)

13:22:

Russia's Defence Ministry says a planned inspection of Russian military facilities by the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) in the coming days will be its last in Russia this year, the privately-owned Russian military news agency Interfax-AVN has reported. Defence Ministry official Sergei Ryzhkov is quoted as saying that the quota for inspections by the OSCE under a 2011 agreement had been "exhausted".

15:39:

International energy giant Royal Dutch Shell has told Reuters it broke off talks over participation in the development of the offshore Skifska gas field in the Ukrainian Black Sea in January. A spokeswoman for Shell said the company had expected the deal to be signed in 2012 or 2013, but that didn't happen.

18:48:

In a further development, Ukraine has announced it will leave the Moscow-led Commonwealth of Independent States, an alliance of post-Soviet states.

And tensions are still really high in Crimea between the Russian and Ukrainian troops:

14:16:

Ukrainian navy men on board ships blocked inside Donuzlav Bay, western Crimea, are on full alert and ready to defend themselves against possible attacks by Russian troops, Interfax-Ukraine news agency reports.

"We're throwing grenades from time to time so that they can't approach us. We have also put up armed guards," said one of the navy commanders.

14:17:

Earlier this month, Russia's Black Sea Fleet reportedly scuttled several of its ships at the entrance to the bay to block the seven Ukrainian vessels based there from leaving.

14:37:

Russian forces have seized a second Ukrainian navy base - this time in western Crimea's Novoozerne naval base - AFP reporters on the ground say.

18:30:

There are reports of a stand-off at an anti-missile base near the Crimean city of Yevpatoria. The compound is apparently surrounded by Russian forces, including snipers, demanding the surrender of Ukrainian soldiers who have so far refused to give themselves up.

Also, they are still holding that Gas Plant in actual Ukraine:

15:13:

On Saturday, the Kherson border region made headlines when Russian troops armed with heavy artillery seized the village of Strilkove, in the first Russian military move into Ukraine beyond Crimea. The forces later withdrew from the village, but reportedly kept control of its gas plant.

And finally, for the lols, Putin trolling:

15:04:

President Putin said in a speech on Tuesday that Moscow had backed Germany's reunification, and that he now expected Germans to also support Russian aspirations to "restore unity".

15:05:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel's spokesman called Putin's comment "an astonishing comparison" and one of several "skewed historical parallels" that had been made during the Ukraine standoff.

"German unification brought together two separate states of the one nation. By contrast, the Russian intervention has led to the division of Ukraine," Steffen Seibert told a press conference in Berlin.

The biggest joke in this discussion is anyone taking what this guys says seriously and thinking it's meaningful. He is just throwing out everything to make the gullible buy one of these tortured analogise he's making.

[Shryke]

Oh, also, it's already begun in Crimea:

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html

Ukraine’s breakaway region of Crimea will ask Tatars to vacate part of the land where they now live in exchange for new territory elsewhere in the region, a top Crimean government official said Tuesday.

Crimean Deputy Prime Minister Rustam Temirgaliyev said in an interview with RIA Novosti on Tuesday the new government in Crimea, where residents voted Sunday to become part of Russia, wants to regularize the land unofficially taken over by Crimean Tatar squatters following the collapse of the Soviet Union.

“We have asked the Crimean Tatars to vacate part of their land, which is required for social needs,” Temirgaliyev said. “But we are ready to allocate and legalize many other plots of land to ensure a normal life for the Crimean Tatars,” he said.

So, what was that, 3 days from vote to forced migration? Geez, who wouldn't want to join Russia! Now the 97% makes sense!

More on the general tenor of things there:

16:07:

Members of Crimean Tatar community bury the coffin of Reshat Ametov during his funeral in Simferopol on 18 March 2014.

Members of the Crimean Tatar community attended the burial ceremony for Reshat Ametov on Tuesday - he was found dead days after witnesses saw him being hauled away by men in military-style jackets during a pro-Ukraine rally.

15:57:

Many Crimean Tatars say they want the peninsula to stay with Ukraine, amidst fears of further deportations. Some 200,000 Tatars were deported to Central Asia and Siberia in 1944 by Josef Stalin, who accused them of collaborating with the German occupiers at the time.

15:56:

Crimea's deputy PM, Rustam Temirgaliyev, says Tatars will be asked to vacate part of the land they now live on "for social needs", in an interview with Ria Novosti news agency on Tuesday.

"But we are ready to allocate and legalize many other plots of land to ensure a normal life for the Crimean Tatars," Mr Temirgaliyev said.

18:32:

The human rights situation in Crimea has deteriorated dramatically, the head of the EU delegation to Ukraine has warned.

"Reported violations include enforced disappearances, ill-treatment and torture, violent attacks against journalists, restrictions to freedom of the media, freedom of movement and freedom of peaceful assembly," Jan Tombinski said in a statement.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Isn't messing with the Tartars what could pull Turkey into this mess?

[Shryke]

Isn't messing with the Tartars what could pull Turkey into this mess?

They certainly won't be happy.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

What would happen if some of those Tartars tried to leave the Crimea for the Ukrainian part of Ukrain because they did not want to live where Russia told them too under Russian rule? Would they be allowed?

I believe they should be allowed to stay where they are without being oppressed. I'm just wondering if that would be an option.

[Kungsmurfen]

Vice dispatch fifteen.

[E-Ro]

Oh, also, it's already begun in Crimea:

http://en.ria.ru/world/20140319/188544777/Crimean-Tatars-Will-Have-to-Vacate-Land--Official.html

So, what was that, 3 days from vote to forced migration? Geez, who wouldn't want to join Russia! Now the 97% makes sense!

More on the general tenor of things there:

I am so fucking excited to see what the defense of this from the pro putin anti west brigade will be. I imagine something like

"but, but, the united states displaced the native Americans! You have no room to judge Russia for this you hypocrites!"

[Ser Loudmouth]

Russia's neighbours freaking out:

in the same cathegory:

http://www.agerpres.ro/news-of-the-day/2014/03/19/traian-basescu-the-only-solution-to-guarantee-security-of-republic-of-moldova-is-to-speed-up-process-of-eu-accession-13-58-49

Isn't messing with the Tartars what could pull Turkey into this mess?

Turkey did threaten with closing the Bosphorus to Russian ships in retaliation if there is violence against the Tatars:

http://www.bne.eu/story5882/Turkey_reportedly_threatens_to_close_Bosphorus_to_Russian_ships

[DanteGabriel]

Gosh, for all the relentless evil of the European Union, a lot of these dumb, ignorant, misguided countries seem to prefer EU membership to being a Russian buffer state. I wonder what could explain their resistance to Vladimir Putin's noble efforts to ensure freedom and self-determination for all?

[Miodrag]

I am so fucking excited to see what the defense of this from the pro putin anti west brigade will be. I imagine something like

"but, but, the united states displaced the native Americans! You have no room to judge Russia for this you hypocrites!"

Don't be so excited, because you might be disappointed. I, for one, do not intend to justify any wrongdoing, no matter who commits it. If Crimea Russians indeed want to displace local Tatars against their will, that very well may be a crime. I still don't have enough information what's happening over there, which is why I can't be certain, but at the very least, even if there is some reason behind that initiative, it couldn't fell in the worse hour. Not that any other hour would make it any easier for Tatars that are to be wronged, I'm just saying that the rush with which Crimea Russians are making the move is also indicative of some foul-play.

Fortunately, it doesn't look like the final decision has been made, which means everything can be stopped before some irreparable damage is inflicted. Of course I need more information, because maybe Crimean Tatars, for all I know, are occupying those lands illegally after all. Even if that is the case, however, at this point and at this pace it certainly looks more probable that they are to be wronged, than that they wronged someone.

[broken one]

ROTFL Russian repersentative in the council of Europe posted via Facebook that Poland and Finland will be joined to Russia too as they are old Russian lands. I wonder if the guy is Putin's fool in type of Zyrinowski and it is a part of the psychological war or he has just got too high on the returning power and glory.

[Shryke]

ROTFL Russian repersentative in the council of Europe posted via Facebook that Poland and Finland will be joined to Russia too as they are old Russian lands. I wonder if the guy is Putin's fool in type of Zyrinowski and it is a part of the psychological war or he has just got too high on the returning power and glory.

Russia is trolling at this point. They are getting off on the entire former eastern bloc scrambling to get protection from them.