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Ukraine VI: Crimea in the Center (AKA Putin's) pocket


Ser Scot A Ellison

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Can't find any other news sources reporting Tartars being asked to leave. Anyone got any more links?

Also, the NYT is reporting that the Ukraine military has ordered it's troops to leave Crimea. So I guess Kiev has conceded that they have lost Crimea.

In more troubling news, a large majority of people in Eastern Ukraine do not view the self-proclaimed government in Kiev as legitimate. The possibility for conflict between East and West is getting stronger apparently. Story.

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Can't find any other news sources reporting Tartars being asked to leave. Anyone got any more links?

Not a link, but my Ukrainian source tells me that alarm was probably false, fortunately. He says that Tatars from the Crimean Parliament aren't strangers to such claims that ultimately prove unfounded more often than not. And the guy quoted in that report has a name that indeed looks like Tatar. Russian agencies tend to report any such claim, because they want to reassure Tatars they aren't ignored, even if their claims are suspicious. Not that anyone seems to be blaming Tatars for trying to use all this chaos for their own interests.

That's how my source assessed the situation after I told him about the report, some ten minutes ago. He added, however, that he can't rule anything out at this point, because he doesn't have enough information on the subject. He said he's going to inspect some more and inform me of his findings. Will post here whatever he tells me.

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In more troubling news, a large majority of people in Eastern Ukraine do not view the self-proclaimed government in Kiev as legitimate. The possibility for conflict between East and West is getting stronger apparently. Story.

An excellent piece. Wish they had mention Sergey Taruta, the oligarch/governor who wants to build some sort of Maginot Line and bring in Ukrainian tanks. This hasn't helped the tension.

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Oh my, excuse my inappropriate metaphor then; I humbly withdraw it. No smallpox-infested blankets were used, just gunpowder and bayonets ;). *looks back at the point of my post* - yup, it still holds.

And to reiterate this point, many nations were founded through the purge of local ethnicities. And throughout history this process has been repeated so many times, it literally makes no sense to attribute any region to its historic ethnic population, unless you wanna surrender Europe, North Africa and the Middle East to the Romans, Egyptians and Sumerians respectively.

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According to tweets from Swedish foreign minister Carl Bildt and the US ambassador to the OSCE, the OSCE can't agree on sending observers to Ukraine.

56 of the 57 member countries want to send observers and a consensus decision is needed. Russia objects for reasons as yet unclear. And unless I'm misinformed about the composition of the OSCE, the 56 who agree would include several countries that normally support Russia, like Kazakhstan and Belarus.

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Alexey Navalny - still pretty much the only game in town as far as the Russian opposition goes - has taken time out from his house arrest and cyber-exile to pen an NYT Op-Ed opposing the invasion and calling for sanctions against the Kremlin elite.

Navalny has some form as a Russian nationalist himself, and with the tide of public opinion apparently with Putin for the moment he might have taken the opportunity of house arrest and internet incommunicado to stay out of the fray. Instead he's nailed his colours to the mast:

“Crimea has always been an integral part of Russia in the hearts and minds of people,” Mr. Putin claimed this week. But even among the most nationalist and pro-Soviet of our people, a longing to restore Crimea to Russian rule faded years ago.

Yet Mr. Putin has cynically raised nationalist fervor to a fever pitch; imperialist annexation is a strategic choice to bolster his regime’s survival. Mobilizing the masses by distracting them from real problems like corruption and economic stagnation can take place only beneath the banner of fighting external enemies.

What is truly alarming in Mr. Putin’s rash behavior is that he is motivated by the desire for revenge against the Ukrainian people for revolting against a Kremlin-friendly government. A rational actor would know that the precedent of holding a local referendum to determine sovereignty is risky for Russia — a federation of more than 80 disparate regions, including more than 160 ethnic groups and at least 100 languages.

It is true that the consensus in both Russia and Crimea is that the peninsula has historically been closer to Moscow than to Kiev. But the notion that this reunification should be achieved at the end of the barrel of a gun is supported only by Mr. Putin’s hard-core base. The opposition has spoken clearly. The antiwar protest held in Moscow over the weekend was the largest in two years, and it exceeded any counterdemonstration mustered by pro-Kremlin movements.

There is a common delusion among the international community that although Mr. Putin is corrupt, his leadership is necessary because his regime subdues the dark, nationalist forces that otherwise would seize power in Russia. The West should admit that it, too, has underestimated Mr. Putin’s malign intent. It is time to end the dangerous delusion that enables him.

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My friend in Baku who's wife is from Kazakistan advises that there the media is fairly pro-Russian and is framing events in raw power terms saying Russuan expansionism is good for the world and that it is time for poer to shift from the US to Russia as the US is too weak to actually us its power. He also advised there are rumors (just rumors) of Russia making moves to turn Kazakstan into a protectorate of the Russian Federation. Apparently the Kazak president is elderly and in poor health they fear the Russians will step in to "restore order" if he dies.

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The threat against Estonia really gives me pause. Putin's entire power base is built on his strong man "don't fuck with Russia" persona. If he doesn't follow through on a threat he looks weak and he cannot afford to look weak. NATO cannot survive allowing another power to absorb or subdivide a member State. It's a Mexican stand off. Neither side can afford to back down. If Russia puts troops into any NATO member State the new "Cold War" gets very hot very quickly.

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My friend in Baku who's wife is from Kazakistan advises that there the media is fairly pro-Russian and is framing events in raw power terms saying Russuan expansionism is good for the world and that it is time for poer to shift from the US to Russia as the US is too weak to actually us its power. He also advised there are rumors (just rumors) of Russia making moves to turn Kazakstan into a protectorate of the Russian Federation. Apparently the Kazak president is elderly and in poor health they fear the Russians will step in to "restore order" if he dies.

All the "stans" are in Russia's pocket. If one of the presidents (dictators) is disobedient Russia uses a minority (Russian or other) to calm him down.

Now the threats towards Estonia make me wonder if we should deport all the Russians for our own savety. What if one of them breaks his leg while on vacation in Zakopane? Nah, it is pointless. They will drop a group of paratroopers pretending Russian children and another group pretending Polish nazis, to beat the children up.

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The threat against Estonia really gives me pause. Putin's entire power base is built on his strong man "don't fuck with Russia" persona. If he doesn't follow through on a threat he looks weak and he cannot afford to look weak. NATO cannot survive allowing another power to absorb or subdivide a member State. It's a Mexican stand off. Neither side can afford to back down. If Russia puts troops into any NATO member State the new "Cold War" gets very hot very quickly.

Eh, in this case it's a (apparently unnamed?) member of the Russian delegation to the UN making the argument, which is far from an inextricable blood pledge.

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While the last few weeks haven't been great for the "Putin's basically rational" hypothesis I think getting into a fight with a country that can invoke Article 5 is still a bit beyond.



Which isn't to say Russia won't start leaning on Estonia and Latvia in other ways.


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