Ukraine and Russia where will this go? AKA Ukraine VIII

[Dicer]

Well, this is a good argument for joining Russia, but as far as we know most of Ukrainians always "say" they don't want to join Russia. Remember they had referendum for independence, and even now most of them tell polsters they want to stay independent. On top of this, they just had a revolution against the pro Russia government.

Most of those Ukrainians are from western Ukraine. The revolution against the pro-Russian government was mostly from western Ukraine. Yanukovich was elected because of large number of votes from eastern Ukraine. Because of their large numbers of ethnic Russians, they would likely favor a pro-Russian government.

What benefits do they get from an EU alliance? NATO, the IMF and debts to the EU and US. What does the common man get out of that? Nothing. The austerity measures are going to squeeze them tight, gas price has been hiked by 50%. Being under the yoke of the IMF has pretty much doomed them. The oligarchs that are now in the new government will benefit. At least ties with Russia would give the man on the street cheap gas.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSBREA2P1EY20140326

Ukraine's new leaders, in a step the ousted government had balked at, said on Wednesday it would raise the price of gas for domestic consumers by more than 50 per cent from May 1 and would raise prices further under a fixed timetable to 2018.

The move is certain to dent the popularity of Prime Minister Arseny Yatseniuk's interim government, but met the demands of the International Monetary Fund.

IMF officials appeared to be putting the finishing touches on Wednesday to a new aid programme for the ex-Soviet republic, which has experienced months of violent political turmoil.

Domestic consumers in Ukraine have long received supplies of gas for home central heating at subsidised prices in a hang-over from the Soviet era.

"Yesterday, the Cabinet of Ministers made a decision to raise tariffs. There will be a timetable of tariffs until 2018. For the population, the rise will be more than 50 per cent from May 1. For utilities it will be a rise of 40 percent from July 1," Yuri Kolbushkin, a senior Naftogaz official, told journalists.

I think what the protestors in eastern Ukraine want is more freedom and autonomy from the self appointed government in Kiev. They don't want to join Russia. But neither do they like what is happening in Kiev. Which is why they are demanding federalization.

[Altherion]

Well, this is a good argument for joining Russia, but as far as we know most of Ukrainians always "say" they don't want to join Russia. Remember they had referendum for independence, and even now most of them tell polsters they want to stay independent. On top of this, they just had a revolution against the pro Russia government.

The problem is that "as far as we know" is not very far at all. People here complain about RT and they are absolutely right: its job is to spread Russian propaganda... but they miss the point that all of the other news sources (BBC, CNN, etc.) are also merely regurgitating propaganda (mostly from the self-proclaimed government in Kiev supplemented by the Russian point of view when Kiev's claims are so far from reality as to be implausible to even a sympathetic listener). Nobody without access to a world-class intelligence service knows what is going on there right now and I would bet even intelligence agencies are confused because there are too many independent players and the well-known and powerful ones are rapidly changing positions. For example, Putin openly and clearly said that Russia is not going to annex Crimea... about a week before it was decided to move up the date of the Crimean referendum for joining Russia.

Also, it's not clear at all how much support there actually is for the most recent revolution. The Ukrainians might not like Russia, but it's entirely possible that like Turchynov and Yatseniuk even less, particularly since their chief accomplishments so far have been to lose Crimea and split the rest of the country.

EDIT:

What benefits do they get from an EU alliance? NATO, the IMF and debts to the EU and US. What does the common man get out of that? Nothing. The austerity measures are going to squeeze them tight, gas price has been hiked by 50%. Being under the yoke of the IMF has pretty much doomed them. The oligarchs that are now in the new government will benefit. At least ties with Russia would give the man on the street cheap gas.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/03/26/us-ukraine-crisis-gas-idUSBREA2P1EY20140326

Nice! This should help matters. :)

[Shryke]

The problem is that "as far as we know" is not very far at all. People here complain about RT and they are absolutely right: its job is to spread Russian propaganda... but they miss the point that all of the other news sources (BBC, CNN, etc.) are also merely regurgitating propaganda (mostly from the self-proclaimed government in Kiev supplemented by the Russian point of view when Kiev's claims are so far from reality as to be implausible to even a sympathetic listener). Nobody without access to a world-class intelligence service knows what is going on there right now and I would bet even intelligence agencies are confused because there are too many independent players and the well-known and powerful ones are rapidly changing positions. For example, Putin openly and clearly said that Russia is not going to annex Crimea... about a week before it was decided to move up the date of the Crimean referendum for joining Russia.

Also, it's not clear at all how much support there actually is for the most recent revolution. The Ukrainians might not like Russia, but it's entirely possible that like Turchynov and Arseniuk even less, particularly since their chief accomplishments so far have been to lose Crimea and split the rest of the country.

Uh, no, they don't. They have reporters on the ground and source their claims directly (ie - they say "the government in Kiev says X", they don't just take it as gospel)

[generic]

Uh, no, they don't. They have reporters on the ground and source their claims directly (ie - they say "the government in Kiev says X", they don't just take it as gospel)

I'd really like to meet this objective Western press. Here in the German speaking regions the Atlanticists are pretty much marching in lockstep. And even the public news channels tend to get their news materials from paid propaganda services. For non German readers: The article is about the cooperation of the ZDF news station with the Ukraine Crisis Center.

Note: I'm obviously not saying that all or even most western media outlets are equivalent to RT. Just that in matters of war and peace a lot of independent news outlets get very loyal very quickly.

[Shryke]

I'd really like to meet this objective Western press. Here in the German speaking regions the Atlanticists are pretty much marching in lockstep. And even the public news channels tend to get their news materials from paid propaganda services. For non German readers: The article is about the cooperation of the ZDF news station with the Ukraine Crisis Center.

Note: I'm obviously not saying that all or even most western media outlets are equivalent to RT. Just that in matters of war and peace a lot of independent news outlets get very loyal very quickly.

I'd like to see where the claims of non-objectivity are coming from.

[KAH]

Most of those Ukrainians are from western Ukraine. The revolution against the pro-Russian government was mostly from western Ukraine. Yanukovich was elected because of large number of votes from eastern Ukraine. Because of their large numbers of ethnic Russians, they would likely favor a pro-Russian government.

What benefits do they get from an EU alliance? NATO, the IMF and debts to the EU and US. What does the common man get out of that? Nothing. The austerity measures are going to squeeze them tight, gas price has been hiked by 50%. Being under the yoke of the IMF has pretty much doomed them. The oligarchs that are now in the new government will benefit. At least ties with Russia would give the man on the street cheap gas.

What benefits do they get from an EU alliance? That depends to a fair extent on the quality of the political class of Ukraine, and frankly, recent history is not very promising regarding that. The journey for EU membership can be quite transformative for the Ukrainan civil society and the economy, to eventually be crowned with free market access to approxiately 500 million people who are generally richer than your own. That is an enormous opportunity. However, it is a long-term prospect, it depends on the political class doing the right things rather than the wrong things, and of course it also helps if your other neighbours do not have an active interest in f*cking up your process.

Russia offers cheap gas, market for the goods (eastern) Ukraine produces right now, as well as whether other boons the Russian leadership may or may not deign to offer.

Of course, the cheap gas is entirely dependent on Russian goodwill, a gift the Russians may not be so ready to give once they don't have to actively pull Ukraine away from the EU, and the pressures of their own domestic welfare start to compete with giving boons to Ukraine. The market access of a customs union with Russia are more tangible, but if I was going to guess where the real benefits lay - the EU on the one side, or on the other hand another market barely 40% of the size (populationwise), plagued by a searingly corrupt economy dependent on oil and gas extraction...well.

The short term clever answer is to go with Russia, and perhaps also in the medium term. In the longer term, well. Ukraine is stuck with Russia as an interested party for the foreseeable future. As such, they will have to deal with them at some level.

[SkaggCannibal]

I'd like to see where the claims of non-objectivity are coming from.

From the common sense of regular people being critical of what is presented to them as fact by the big media cooperations. You see it in the comments under every biased article. But I don't expect you to read those.

You also have reports on it from regular papers, mostly in the form of opinions by independent writers. If you are really interested:

http://www.dw.de/media-bias-a-problem-in-ukraine-reporting/a-17571997

http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/mar/12/ukraine-western-media-coverages-bias-should-be-held-into-account

and a more general view on US reporting on anything Russian, encouraging you to be critical: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/jean-folkerts/the-us-press-and-russia-a_b_5031892.html

[E-Ro]

A force of 300 pro Russia protesters(armed) were just repeled from attacking a Ukrainian base. 3 of them dead, at least 15 wounded and many more detained.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/fatal-clashes-ukrainian-military-base

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/17/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?c=homepage-t

Very sad, but not at all unnecessary IMO.

[snake]

Finally, some sensible commentary on the crisis in Ukraine. Hard to find but it is out there if you look hard enough. :)

[Robin Of House Hill]

Just when you thought it couldn't get worse.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/

[Doireidh]

A force of 300 pro Russia protesters(armed) were just repeled from attacking a Ukrainian base. 3 of them dead, at least 15 wounded and many more detained.

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/fatal-clashes-ukrainian-military-base

http://www.cnn.com/2014/04/17/world/europe/ukraine-crisis/index.html?c=homepage-t

Very sad, but not at all unnecessary IMO.

According to the local website 0629 that both of these articles are quoting, the protesters attacked the military in order to obtain weapons and only used molotovs which explains why there were no casualties on military side despite Avakov and Turchynov claiming the protesters used firearms.

I believe that this is the original report. It was folowed up by a comment from Mariupol Mayor, official data from Mariupol medical service, and a recount of the events by one of the wounded protesters.

Chrome's built-in translate does good enough of a job.

Unrelated to the events in Mariupol, there are three pieces of news that no one yet mentioned:

1. http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/04/15/us-ukraine-crisis-candidate-idUSBREA3E0HQ20140415

Pro-Russian presidential candidate was beaten up in Kiev after an TV interview. Apparently, the people who beat him up claimed that he was supporting Russian intervention in Ukraine. He later denied those claims.

2. http://www.usatoday.com/story/theoval/2014/04/14/obama-john-brennan-kiev-russia-ukraine-jay-carney/7705755/

CIA director visited Kiev a few days ago. Russia accuses him of giving advice to the government to use force in Eastern Ukraine. USA says that his visit was just "a part of a trip to Europe".

3. http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/donetsk-pro-russians-order-jews-register-be-deported-supporting-kiev-rule-1445111

Someone was giving out flyers telling Jews to register or be deported in the name of Donetsk Republic. The flyer is pretty obviously fake and Pushilin, who's name was on the flyer, has confirmed that it is fake.

EDIT: Robin pls.

[Linsox]

I think what the protestors in eastern Ukraine want is more freedom and autonomy from the self appointed government in Kiev. They don't want to join Russia. But neither do they like what is happening in Kiev. Which is why they are demanding federalization.

Best description I have seen on this page. Lummel also captured the thinking of what an American academic who lived there in the 1990s calls ex-Soviet citizens.

[Disturber of Peace]

Just when you thought it couldn't get worse.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2014/04/17/jews-ordered-to-register-in-east-ukraine/7816951/

Maybe they get cool group tattoos.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Doiredh,

Actually, per the article he acknowledged that his organization made the flyers and "disavowed their contents". Does that mean there are some within his organization who are pushing for this sort of registration and he doesn't agree or what?

[Linsox]

It's sloppy rendition of a WW2 leaflet according to the rumor mill.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Linsox,

That he admitted was made by his organization. Was it all for the lulz?

[Doireidh]

Doiredh,

Actually, per the article he acknowledged that his organization made the flyers and "disavowed their contents". Does that mean there are some within his organization who are pushing for this sort of registration and he doesn't agree or what?

Please quote the part that says that? The article says that "He assured that neither he nor his organization did not have any relation to it.".

Edit: I think that you misread this part in the UsaToday article: "Pushilin acknowledged that flyers were distributed under his organization's name in Donetsk, but denied any connection to them, Ynet reported in Hebrew."

If that was the case, please edit your comment in order to avoid any further confusion on the matter.

[Shryke]

From the common sense of regular people being critical of what is presented to them as fact by the big media cooperations. You see it in the comments under every biased article. But I don't expect you to read those.

So, like usual, you got nothing. Gotcha.

[TrueMetis]

Please quote the part that says that? The article says that "He assured that neither he nor his organization did not have any relation to it.".

Think he's referring to Robin article.

Pushilin acknowledged that flyers were distributed under his organization's name in Donetsk, but denied any connection to them, Ynet reported in Hebrew.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

Doiredh,

This is what I read earlier:

The leaflets bore the name of Denis Pushilin, who identified himself as chairman of "Donetsk's temporary government," and were distributed near the Donetsk synagogue and other areas, according to the report.

Pushilin acknowledged the flyers were distributed by his organization but he disavowed their content, according to the web site Jews of Kiev, Ynet in Hebrew.

This is what it says now:

The leaflets bore the name of Denis Pushilin, who identified himself as chairman of "Donetsk's temporary government," and were distributed near the Donetsk synagogue and other areas, according to the reports.

Pushilin acknowledged that flyers were distributed under his organization's name in Donetsk, but denied any connection to them, Ynet reported in Hebrew.

USA Today changed the text since it was first posted by Robin. I'd quoted the article elsewhere before it was changed. So based on the correction I was wrong about him admitting they had published the flyers but my error was based on an earlier iteration of the same article.