Balon attacking the North

[Fat King Robert]

Ha sorry but you realise that Tywin is the one of the biggest hypocrites in the series? Balon has rebelled twice and made a fool of him once. Tywin would destroy Balon with the full power of the arbor. He's destroyed two houses for rebelling once. He was part of the destruction of the darklyns also.

Tywin hates Tyrion whoring yet he uses them himself. He hated his father giving jewels to his woman yet allows shae to wear his own. Talks about sparing ten thousand men by taking down Robb but is party to the death of thousands at the wedding as well as spreading destruction on a huge scale in the Riverlands.

First of all, there are theories on how this is Varys' machinations. Second of all, I believe he's speaking about his own men. How many men did he lose while raiding the Riverlands? How many men did he lose at the Red Wedding?

"The object of war is not to die for your country, but to make the other bastard die for his"

If he's declaring independence it would secure the support of the North, a group that likewise want independence and the Westerlands are the richest part of the seven kingdoms. On the other hand the Iron Throne will not offer independence and the westcoast of the the North is one of the single poorest regions in the seven kingdoms. Attacking the Westerlands gains an ally and huge amounts of wealth, attacking the North gets jack.

If he wanted to get revenge against the North and win favor with Tywin it would have been a great plan. As it stands it the single most counter productive plan in the series and would have never work as who ever held the Iron Throne would give everything to bring the Iron Born to heel.

Exactly, the Westerlands ARE the richest part of the Westerlands. With the richest family. But it also has Tywin Lannister. Buy you are right in one thing; the North is HUGE! It's ripe with trees and land mass. Trees and land mass....something that IB need. Also, Balon's army (fleet rather) is still pretty fresch.

No but such a pretentious statement from someone with Tywin's history. ... come on. When he had trouble from another bannerman he sent a musician to play the rains of Castamere ie keep going the way you are and I will destroy your house. That's Tywin's diplomacy with those who cross him which Balon has done twice

As a warning. Clearly we'll never know what Tywin would've done, though I agree it's a fair point to argue. I don't believe Tywin would have killed Balon, simply because the Balon had many soldiers left, while Tywin's forces had suffered a bit (Jaime's army being scattered, Lord Steffon's army being slaughtered). Balon could haggle with Tywin (which is exactly what he did) about keeping pressure on the North, but only if he could have a piece of the north.

So, he has now crowned himself, but is still trying to keep a "good" (a bad word, alas, I can't come up with anything better) tone with the IT.

He said their, meaning Balon's, entire plan. Theon went rogue when he decided to take Winterfell. if not for the taking, sacking, and killing of the Starks-in-Winterfell Robb would have let his lords like Lord Manderly and Lady Dustin take care of the Ironborn. Winterfell falling is why Robb needed to return North as the Ironborn went from a nuisance to a legitimate threat. If not for that, Bolton would have remained loyal and the Dreadfort's men would have been on the side of Rodrick not against him.

of course Ramsey would be dead or rotting in the Winterfell dungeons right now.

Even if he had orders to pillage fishing villages and such, I do believe that the IB had a bit more freedom when it came to this. Theon saw an opportunity and he seized it. He should have sacked the castle though, instead of trying to hold it.

[The Marquis de Leech]

I'd echo the comments that Balon's plan wasn't that stupid. We'll work with the assumption that Balon wants independence and land.

Option 1: Attack the Lannisters. Certainly, there is short-term wealth available. On the other hand, it could only ever be a one-off: the Ironborn aren't getting control of the gold mines, since those are too far inland. Moreover, it will be comparatively easy for Tywin to recover what he has lost, and fairly soon, it's going to be a repeat of Balon's earlier rebellion, except that the enemy commander is someone less forgiving than Robert Baratheon. The Starks don't have a fleet, and so aren't in a position to help, other than providing temporary distraction. And Robb is wandering around the South fighting battles without a clear goal any more; the North's days are numbered.

Option 2: Attack the North. Less wealth, but it's undefended, and difficult for Starks to regain (it's a long journey home). Plenty of land and trees, which means more ships, and screwing over Ned Stark's heirs is a nice vindictive plus. Such an attack also wins brownie points with the Iron Throne - Balon will never get a crown via fighting the IT, but he might get a sort of quasi-independence as a thankyou, and in any case he can use taking off the crown as a bargaining chip for extra lands. Balon rightly recognises that it won't be Robb Stark setting the terms when the dust settles.

As is usual with these forums, I think much of the animosity towards Balon's decision is that it went against the precious Starks.

[toffeejay]

Have to agree with 282.

Even if Robb returns and annilated your forces he's not going invade Pyke. Tywin would go all salt the earth on it.

Its sort of gains x likelyhood of success agianst the chances of retribution and of holding your gains. I'd say the North is more worthwhile despite the lower gain.

He would never have held it but the Starks would have had a nightmare trying to erradicate the threat on the western coast.

Plus his plan did work -

Deepwood taken by Asha (only lost to Stannis and who would have seen that coming?)

Moat Calin taken by Victarion (only lost after his own death and he certianly didn't see that coming!)

My arguement against its success would not be the idea but the lack of follow through with it, he didn't try and take more which was strange. Why not take back Bear Island? All the major Mormonts were away. Flints Finger would be easily supplied by sea and Barrowtown looks as it its open to attack by river.

Winterfell and Torrens Square fall but were not part of his plan.

[Lord Reaver]

My arguement against its success would not be the idea but the lack of follow through with it, he didn't try and take more which was strange. Why not take back Bear Island? All the major Mormonts were away. Flints Finger would be easily supplied by sea and Barrowtown looks as it its open to attack by river.

Winterfell and Torrens Square fall but were not part of his plan.

There was no follow through because he died. Pure and simple. Balon clearly had thought to take every stronghold, as evidenced by his words: "They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? The rest shall be ours, forest and field and hall, and we shall make the folk our thralls and salt wives."

[Free Northman Reborn]

I'm interested in what Balon's best case outcome was for this venture. The realism of that expectation will determine how wise/foolish this move was.

[Lord Reaver]

I'm interested in what Balon's best case outcome was for this venture. The realism of that expectation will determine how wise/foolish this move was.

Wasn't that what I just quoted ?

[The Frosted King]

There was no follow through because he died. Pure and simple. Balon clearly had thought to take every stronghold, as evidenced by his words: "They will yield or fall, one by one. Winterfell may defy us for a year, but what of it? The rest shall be ours, forest and field and hall, and we shall make the folk our thralls and salt wives."

People say many things in this story.

The Florent lord promised Stannis the victory at Kingslanding.

Ironborn don't do well with sieges.

How did they expect to take White Harbor, Winterfell, the Dreadfort, Karhold, Last Hearth?

They took a motte castle, and a small one in Torhhens Square.

A far cry from the greater seats of the north.

He also thought to take Seagard before.

Balons plans have a tendency to fall through.

[Lord Reaver]

Well and dandy, but my post was in response to someone claiming Balon had no plans. Clearly, he did.

Whether they would have worked or not, we'll never know, since he died by deus ex machina.

[The Frosted King]

I'd echo the comments that Balon's plan wasn't that stupid. We'll work with the assumption that Balon wants independence and land.

Option 1: Attack the Lannisters. Certainly, there is short-term wealth available. On the other hand, it could only ever be a one-off: the Ironborn aren't getting control of the gold mines, since those are too far inland. Moreover, it will be comparatively easy for Tywin to recover what he has lost, and fairly soon, it's going to be a repeat of Balon's earlier rebellion, except that the enemy commander is someone less forgiving than Robert Baratheon. The Starks don't have a fleet, and so aren't in a position to help, other than providing temporary distraction. And Robb is wandering around the South fighting battles without a clear goal any more; the North's days are numbered.

Option 2: Attack the North. Less wealth, but it's undefended, and difficult for Starks to regain (it's a long journey home). Plenty of land and trees, which means more ships, and screwing over Ned Stark's heirs is a nice vindictive plus. Such an attack also wins brownie points with the Iron Throne - Balon will never get a crown via fighting the IT, but he might get a sort of quasi-independence as a thankyou, and in any case he can use taking off the crown as a bargaining chip for extra lands. Balon rightly recognises that it won't be Robb Stark setting the terms when the dust settles.

As is usual with these forums, I think much of the animosity towards Balon's decision is that it went against the precious Starks.

Yes, the guy who's twice rebelled, and dreams of plundering his neighbors will be granted quasi-independence.

How the hell is he going to win independence if he helps the side that pushes for consolidation?

Who does that?

Two slaves seek freedom.

One slave hamstrings the other, and asks the brutal master for his freedom as payment for his underhanded move.

Do you honestly think the slavemaster will send him off amiably?

Seriously?

And the only reason Balon guessed rightly is because his actions made it so.

I hate the bitchassness on display whenever Balon was seen or referred to in the books.

Just a damp bundle of grudges, bitterness and bitchassness.

[Winnief]

Yes, the guy who's twice rebelled, and dreams of plundering his neighbors will be granted quasi-independence.

How the hell is he going to win independence if he helps the side that pushes for consolidation?

Who does that?

Two slaves seek freedom.

One slave hamstrings the other, and asks the brutal master for his freedom as payment for his underhanded move.

Do you honestly think the slavemaster will send him off amiably?

Seriously?

:cheers:

Also as Asha Greyjoy herself pointed out at the Kingsmoot the Northern invasion was pretty much a bust-they got nothing for it but lost a lot of men.

And there was no way in hell, Tywin was going to let Balon keep the North...he wasn't even going to let the Bolton's keep it. He wanted it for a Lannister grandchild, (not that that would have worked either,) and I have no doubt that if he hadn't died when he did, one of his first orders of business, now that things were wrapping up in the Riverlands, would be to bring the Iron Islands to heel.

[Lord Stark]

Balon was an idiot. It's a simple as that. He set two clear goals for himself in his lifetime.

1. Independence

2. Return to the Old Ways.

This is clear by his first Rebellion, and what he says to Theon, and with him crowning himself. The only way for an attack on the North to make sense is if he is being a loyal supporter of the Iron Throne, and that should be made clear, a loyal supporter. Most lords in Westeros would not be so stupid as to attack without getting something out of it. Instead Balon attacks someone elses enemy, and expects payment/rewards, before any agreement is made.

Based off the fact that Balon was seeking his own Kingdom, and sought to return to the Old Ways, his attack makes no sense at all. Hell he doesn't even attack it in his first rebellion. Why? Lack of wealth in terms of gold and such, lack of a threat to the Ironborn, and lack of rivers to be able to attack 90% of the land. Instead, during his first Rebellion he makes the right choice, and attacks his closest and strongest threat, the Lannisters. Even here he proves to be a bit of an idiot because he waits for the Robert to unite the realm for 5 years. A give to him at least he didn't attack the Reach, and maybe his hope was that they would stay out of the war, but I doubt that. He waited for the whole of the Westeros to unite, and fight against him. 'll also give him that maybe his father was alive for the time during Robert's Rebellion, and that is why he didn't start his rebellion then. Still, his first rebellion was met by failures because it was the plan of an idiot. His own good action was to burn the Lannister fleet, and open up the riches of the Westerlands to his people.

Now fast track 15 years. Balon has learned from his mistake it seems. He seeks to crown himself again. A civil war is being fought, and what is better, not between 2 factions, but between 4 factions, and with Dorne and the Reach doing nothing. One of these factions has the same goal as he does, to form his own kingdom. So his plan from this point on is simple. Attack the faction that has the same goal as he does, and help the factions that are be default, his enemies because they are seeking to keep Westeros united, and as such the Iron Isles are part of that. He chooses to attack the North, not because the North killed his son, hell the Riverlands, and Stannis are a better case for that, but because Theon was fostered in the North, and Balon feared Tywin... who hey, 10 years ago he destroyed his fleet in an attack, and pretty much handed Tywin one of his own defeats, and we don;t even hear of much Lannister men fighting after that. Yes I know Tywin didn't command the Lannister fleet, but Tywin was still the man he was than as he was at this time, and instead of being at home in the Westerlands, he was in the east fighting Robb. So instead of returning to the Old Ways, Balon shows fear, and attacks the place of least gain for himself, and his people. He does so without seeking as rewards before hand, and crushing his chances at his goals. He also does it at a time when the forgiving Robert is dead, and instead the, I wipe out houses that rise against me, Tywin Lannister, is defacto king.

Balon, if he wanted a crown had a couple options ahead of him. None of them involved attacking the sole faction that sought the same thing as he did. A short term alliance with the North would have been favourable, and the time about short term allies, or war time alliances, it that once the war is over, or your goals are met, your free to do what you want. Once the Iron Isle, and the North are independent, and secure, your free to launch raids on the North all you want. Attacking the Westerlands, something which had been done in the past by Dagon Greyjoy, and something done at a time without civil war going on, and at a time where they also attacked the North, with both kingdoms at full strength, not in a civil wars, means that at that time the Westerlands had their full force in the Westerlands, and at this time, they have very little, only small garrisons, and reserve forces. The Westerlands were ripe with a large city, no fleet, and no army to respond to attacks. You don't need to capture Casterly's Rock to sack Lannisport, or other places.

So the Westerlands offer up ripe rewards, low risk. Hell, so long as Robb is fighting Tywin, you don;t even have to ally with the North, has Tywin would never be able to attack the Iron Isle while fighting the North.

Another option is the Reach. Just as rich as the Westerlands, it has a large river to launch raids into the heart of the Reach. It has the only fleet to match your own, and one which with Ironborn speed, could be taken out still at the Arbor. The Reach has enemies in Dorne, which could be another useful short term ally. Knowing about Dornish hatred of the Lannisters and Tyrells, one might even be able to offer an alliance of independence with them, in the hopes they will attack the Reach by land. If you destroy the Arbor fleet at sea, you just opened up Westeros to Ironborn attacks anywhere, and everywhere, as Stannis is served by mostly pirates anyways. So long as Westeros is divided, the Ironborn can return to the Old Ways, and raid as they like. The Reach, being attacked, is less likely to send forces north. So when word reaches you of the Lannister, and Tyrell alliance, it isn't going to be able to do much. All of a sudden the Westerlands, Reach(the two richest factions), are open to attack and raids. The only threat to your home base, and launch point for raids, is Stannis on the other side of Westeros, with a small fleet.

If Euron had been around for Robb's offer, I have no doubt he would have accepted it, because the rewards would have been to good to pass up.

Again, the only way attacking the North wasn;t the plan of a fool is if your planning on showing your loyalty to the Iron Throne, and you aren't seeking rewards. As we know that was never his goal, his plan makes no sense. If he was playing chess, he would have sent his king straight at his opponent before he lost any of his pieces, just to prove he had the balls to do it, but of course losing the game.

[Lord Reaver]

Again, the only way attacking the North wasn;t the plan of a fool is if your planning on showing your loyalty to the Iron Throne, and you aren't seeking rewards. As we know that was never his goal, his plan makes no sense.

Heh, another upset Starkist. But I'll play.

Balon's letter shows that what you think you know, you don't. And Tywin and Lord Redwyne's response shows that it's not as far fetched as you would have it. Note that Tywin doesn't care much about who holds the north at this point, as long as it's not the Starks. He says to wait, not to dismiss Balon's offer out of hand.

The entire plan with Sansa comes later, after Balon is dead and gone, and the situation is completely different.

[Lord Stark]

Heh, another upset Starkist. But I'll play.

Yes, I guess you could call me a Starkist. Upset though? No.

Balon's letter shows that what you think you know, you don't. And Tywin and Lord Redwyne's response shows that it's not as far fetched as you would have it. Note that Tywin doesn't care much about who holds the north at this point, as long as it's not the Starks. He says to wait, not to dismiss Balon's offer out of hand.

Balon letter asks permission, and I laugh at that, to be granted the North, and keep the Iron Isles as King. He hasn't even conquered the North yet, and even Tywin knows that the North will throw them out.

Tywin doesn't entertain the offer at all. He responds to the question of what right he has to call himself king, and Tywin gives a short list of what his men have done, and also says how they can be a threat to the Westerlands, and to Highgarden itself, yet Balon feared Tywin. Laughable. The only people that agree that they would let Balon have the North which they say is stone and snow only, are Mace and Redwyne. One is considered a fool, and the other we know little about. Clearly he does not have faith in his fleet, if he is willing to give up without a fight, again point to the Ironborn being able to take on the Redwyne fleet.

Robb Starks teerms were refused, yet yeah, somehow Greyjoy that holds no cards, is helping them, will have their terms met. Sorry but because two members of a council make jests, and do what a council does, talk about the issues, does not mean Tywin would even for a second consider it a real option. So if your only counter to my post is that Mace Tyrell and one of his bannermen were willing to accept the terms, than you have very little to show Balon was not a fool.

Again though is shows a short sight of Balons part. He offers to become the only other King to a united Iron Throne. To bleed his own forces in the North against the Northmen, and somehow conduct sieges of powerful castles. Note that Deepwood Motte is a wooden castle of a Masterly House, that is to say the weakest and lowest tier of lord in the North, Torrhen's Square is also held by a Masterly House, and likely not some great keep. We have seen what Landed Knights have for keeps in the Riverlands. Moat Cailin was taken from the South, which is the only way to do it. No siege was required because it's not that type of fortress, not even a castle. The only real castle that fell was Winterfell, by a trick, and plot. The Dreadfort survived a 4 year long siege by the Starks, which would have meant a large part, if not all, of the North. So somehow he plans to weaken himself by taking over the North, and expects the only other king in Westeros, not to regain his lost lands.

The entire plan with Sansa comes later, after Balon is dead and gone, and the situation is completely different.

I never did bring this up, but since you did. This is rather false. It all takes place in the same chapter, within the same place. Balon's letter is read first. Tywin already had the plan in place.

[Cas Stark]

Balon offers terms to Tywin, so isn't opposed to some kind of terms ergo his refusal of Robb's terms on his point of IB honor was not the reason he said no.

Second, Tywin doesn't accept his proposal, decides to let the Boltons and IB kill each other for a few years, which seems pretty conclusive proof that a deal with Robb Stark for what he claims he wanted...independence...would have been a better choice.

It is highly unlikely that the IB, even without the knowledge we have of Euron, would have been able to triumph over the Boltons or ever hold anything in the North for the long term.

So, once again, taking out the "OMG it's about the Starks" the analysis of Balon's actions still seem to me to fall hard on the side of making a wrong, rash choice based on his own irrational hatred of the Starks and lack of vision.

[Lord Reaver]

I never did bring this up, but since you did. This is rather false. It all takes place in the same chapter, within the same place. Balon's letter is read first. Tywin already had the plan in place.

Tywin's plan is to forestall a Stark-Tyrell alliance, not to seek to claim the North, that part only comes in later.

Here are his own words on the matter of Balon, again from that same chapter: "Balon Greyjoy's wife is elderly and failing, but such a match would commit us to an alliance with the Iron Islands, and I am still uncertain whether that would be our wisest course."

Uncertain. That means not sure, as in he's not dismissing Balon's offer. Really, how much clearer can you get ?

[Frey Pie]

Yes, the guy who's twice rebelled, and dreams of plundering his neighbors will be granted quasi-independence.

How the hell is he going to win independence if he helps the side that pushes for consolidation?

Who does that?

Two slaves seek freedom.

One slave hamstrings the other, and asks the brutal master for his freedom as payment for his underhanded move.

Do you honestly think the slavemaster will send him off amiably?

Seriously?

And the only reason Balon guessed rightly is because his actions made it so.

I hate the bitchassness on display whenever Balon was seen or referred to in the books.

Just a damp bundle of grudges, bitterness and bitchassness.

Arrggggh fan boy! !!!

[Lord Stark]

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Tywin's plan is to forestall a Stark-Tyrell alliance, not to seek to claim the North, that part only comes in later.

I'm sorry, Stark-Tyrell alliance? Yeah, not likely at this point, or ever. The Tyrell plan is much the same as the Lannister plan, although much less ruthless. They plan to use Sansa in the hopes of gaining a claim on Winterfell for a future second or third son. The quote that shows this happened at the same time Balon's letter is read, is below, and that Tywin's plan is to claim the North, and that if he has to, he will marry a cousin Lannister to Sansa to do it.

Here are his own words on the matter of Balon, again from that same chapter: "Balon Greyjoy's wife is elderly and failing, but such a match would commit us to an alliance with the Iron Islands, and I am still uncertain whether that would be our wisest course."

Uncertain. That means not sure, as in he's not dismissing Balon's offer. Really, how much clearer can you get ?

You are not clear at all. Please go back and read the chapter if your just going to cherry pick one quote, and leave out other parts that disagree with you.

Here is something that will at least let you get an idea how the chapter unfolded. http://awoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/A_Storm_of_Swords-Chapter_19

Note that the council takes place first, in which Balon is discussed, than things move on to the Vale, than on to the Wildlings, and how they might bleed the Starks and Greyjoys. Council ends, Marriage talks about Cersei, followed by marriage talks to Sansa, which this follow quote is from.

Lord Tywin steepled his fingers beneath his chin. "Balon thinks in term of plunder, not rule. Let him enjoy an autumn crown, and suffer a northern winter. He will give his subjects no cause to love him. Come spring, the northmen will have bad a bellyful of krakens. When you bring Eddard Stark's grandson home to claim his birthright, lords and little folks alike will rose as one to place him on the high seat of his ancestors. You are capable of getting a woman with child, I hope?"

This all takes place right after the council. Mere minutes, not hours, not days, not weeks. The plan has already been sorted out, and the council was just a ruse to make Mace look like he had a place at the table.

[Fat King Robert]

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Yes, I guess you could call me a Starkist. Upset though? No.

Balon letter asks permission, and I laugh at that, to be granted the North, and keep the Iron Isles as King. He hasn't even conquered the North yet, and even Tywin knows that the North will throw them out.

That's a bloody lie. I qutoe the books:

Ser Kevan: "Balon Greyjoy, who now styles himself King of the Isles and the North, has written to us offering terms of alliance."

"He ought to be offering us fealty", snapped Cersei. "By what right does he call himself King?"

"By the right of conquest", Lord Tywin said. "King Balon has strangler's fingers around the Neck. Robb Stark's heirs are dead, Winterfell is fallen, and the ironmen holds Moat Cailin, Deepwood Motte, and most of Stony Shore. King Balon's longships command the sunset sea, and are well placed to menace Lannisport, Fair Isle and even Highgarden, if we provoke him."

[Cas Stark]

We know that Tywin doesn't recognize any "King in the North" since he appoints Roose Bolton as Wardon of the North, who has bent the knee to the Iron Throne, so that idea, that he was ever or did ever grant Balon such a title is out.

[Lord Reaver]

I'm sorry, Stark-Tyrell alliance? Yeah, not likely at this point, or ever.

I'll just quote Tyrion in response to that, I believe he expresses it amply: Bloody fool, thought Tyrion. "Sweet sister," he explained patiently, "offend Tyrell and you offend Redwyne, Tarly, Rowan, and Hightower as well, and perhaps start them wondering whether Robb Stark might not be more accommodating of their desires."

Clearly, a Stark-Tyrell alliance is likely enough for both Tyrion and Tywin to take into account.

You are not clear at all. Please go back and read the chapter if your just going to cherry pick one quote, and leave out other parts that disagree with you.

Pot, kettle, black.

Note that the council takes place first, in which Balon is discussed, than things move on to the Vale, than on to the Wildlings, and how they might bleed the Starks and Greyjoys. Council ends, Marriage talks about Cersei, followed by marriage talks to Sansa, which this follow quote is from.

Incidentally, my quote was also from the latter part, after the council.

Thing is, Tywin is a planner who likes to have more than one option. Unlike the Starkists of this forum, he can't magically see into the future, so he makes several plans, keeping his options open. He doesn't dismiss Balon, but he also doesn't want the Tyrells to marry Sansa and thus get a claim on the North, in case the Northmen rise up against him. It's called covering your bases.