Balon attacking the North

[Lord Reaver]

We know that Tywin doesn't recognize any "King in the North" since he appoints Roose Bolton as Wardon of the North, who has bent the knee to the Iron Throne, so that idea, that he was ever or did ever grant Balon such a title is out.

Roose Bolton is appointed warden after Balon is dead and the ironborn return to the Iron Islands. There's no knowing if he would have been, had Balon still been alive.

[Cas Stark]

Roose Bolton is appointed warden after Balon is dead and the ironborn return to the Iron Islands. There's no knowing if he would have been, had Balon still been alive.

He's got to reward Bolton, doesn't he? If he's not making him Warden of the North, what is Bolton's reward? I guess it's technically true that he 'might not' have done it while Balon was alive, or done it so quickly, but it seems unlikley, because then you ask, why bother betraying Robb Stark if you don't get this title?

[Lord Stark]

And Greyjoys dismissed because he already has a plan.

"King balon's longships are occupied for the nonce," Lord tywin said politely, "as are we.Greyjoy demands half the kingdom as the price of alliance, but what will he do to earn it? Fight the Starks? He is doing that already. Why should we pay for what he is given us for free? The best thing to do about out lord of Pyke is nothing. Granted enough time, a better option may well present itself. One that does not require the king to give up half his kingdom."

Tyrion watched his father closely. There's something he's not saying. He remembered those important letters Lord Tywin had been writing, the night Tyrion had demanded Casterly Rock. What was it he said? Some battles are won with swords and spears, and others with quills and ravens... He wondered who the "better option" was, and what sort of price he was demanding.

Tywin mentions this when Redwyne asks to return to the Greyjoy matter, and says that their longships could aid his fleet. He says to do nothing without telling Mace and Redwyne what he has planned, and yet Tyrion can tell he is not saying more, and then, wait for it, we get the big reveal about his plan is for Sansa, and the Norths, and Greyjoys, and just a few pages away, in what takes places in mere minutes.

Tywin never hints at a moment that he would accept the offer, and everything else in the chapter shows otherwise. Even you point out that he doesn't want an alliance with the Greyjoys when talking about his wife.

It cannot be more clear that Tywin had no plans to side with the Greyjoys. What did he have to do, declare war on him in that moment? He dismisses his terms, points out how Mance can bleed them, how the Northmen will bleed them, and how his own grandson will claim the north, all within minutes of the council that had the letter brought up, was ended. All these plans were already in place, they weren't something that just came to him in 30 seconds.

Balon Greyjoy was an idiot, who attacked the only person who could have helped him. He was short sighted in not 1, but 2 rebellions. He was a moron all his life, and the best thing he ever did was fall off a bridge, and I'll bet even then he had to be pushed.

[Lord Stark]

Roose Bolton is appointed warden after Balon is dead and the ironborn return to the Iron Islands. There's no knowing if he would have been, had Balon still been alive.

Because there were no Ironborn at Moat Cailin, Torrhen's Square, or Deepwood Motte? because Tywin didn't have plans to replace Bolton with his own grandson, or a Lannister born on Sansa, as he expressed? because the person he refers to in my above quote was not Roose Bolton and Walter Frey, and the price they paid was killing Robb Stark?

We know what Tywin would have done. He states it.

[Lord Reaver]

So now Balon is stupid for not somehow seeing the Red Wedding coming ? Yes, I mean, that's a totally reasonable thing to expect anyone to see.

I suppose Tyrion, Robb and hell, basically everyone but Tywin, Roose and Walder Frey are morons as well, then ?

Ridiculous.

[Lord Stark]

I've listed all the reason, in not just 1 rebellion, but both. You have seen fit to ignore them, and offer up only that Tywin might have considered it, when in fact there is not one hint in the books that he ever would, and the only people who consider it are a lord considered to be a fool, and his vassal. No one else on the council speaks up in favour of the terms.

Also, in the 1 million shot that Tywin ever agreed to it, the peace would never last. You never answered how Balon would claim the North, you seem to like to avoid the hard questions. What would happen when Tywin grandson is born to Sansa and Tyrion, and he seeks to put him on the seat of Winterfell, and claim the North, as he plans to do?

Did I ever state that Balon was a moron for not seeing the Red Wedding? Nope, god trying at putting words in my mouth though. I'll let you address the points I brought up in past posts, instead of avoiding them.

[The Wolves]

Balon wouldn't have been able to hold the North anyway it's way to big and the land is to harsh in the summer why he would want that hardship is beyond me.

But Balon was always an idiot

[Lion of the West]

The reason that Balon is an idiot isn't because he's attacking the North but because he, like so many others, cling to dillusional ideas about reviving the glory of their forefathers despite the fact that the world has changed a whole great deal since then.

If Balon really wants to become independent again then attacking the North makes the best choice due to the fact that with Moat Cailin can be held against a southern attack on the North while the Iron Fleet can, hopefully, defend the Iron Islands themselves from an invasion. In some ways the Ironborn are like the Japanese of the 30s and 40s. So drunk on their own supposed superiority that they can't imagine that a power house of inferior people, like the South of Westeros or the USA, can never be defeated by their comparably tiny resources and their superiority will lead them straight to a glorious victory. Attacking Lannisport may give some good looting if successful however it will also mean that when someone claims the Iron Throne that someone will not allow an entire region and one of the largest settlements of the continent to be held or threatened by the Ironmen. So which ever target that Balon will pick it won't be something that he can actually hope to take and hold in the long run and by attacking the West he's setting himself up for a massive retalitory measure by the Iron Throne.

If Balon was smart he would immedietly declare for Renly, and later Joffrey, and try to gain a position of some influence at court and by becoming integrated with the rest of Westeros the Greyjoys and Ironmen could hope to get somewhere, like Asha proposed, and start to move things for real.

[Lord Reaver]

Also, in the 1 million shot that Tywin ever agreed to it, the peace would never last. You never answered how Balon would claim the North, you seem to like to avoid the hard questions.

To quote Yoda: So sure of yourself, are you.

I'm not so sure the peace would never last.

Balon would claim the north exactly as he says: By taking each stronghold in turn. Euron's campaign shows that the Ironborn can indeed take castles by storm.

What would happen when Tywin grandson is born to Sansa and Tyrion, and he seeks to put him on the seat of Winterfell, and claim the North, as he plans to do?

Tyrion would probably have to go to war, or Balon (or his successor) would have to give up the north. It's all hypotheticals anyway, based on a plan that Balon really doesn't have any way of foreseeing.

Did I ever state that Balon was a moron for not seeing the Red Wedding? Nope, god trying at putting words in my mouth though. I'll let you address the points I brought up in past posts, instead of avoiding them.

You are implying it, by saying Balon's offer to Tywin is stupid. It's only stupid if you know what Tywin knows, that he's orchestrating other plans to rid himself of Robb. To people without this inside information (that only Tywin and the readers have), such as Mace Tyrell and Lord Redwyne, the offer seems more than worth considering.

[Lord Reaver]

The reason that Balon is an idiot isn't because he's attacking the North but because he, like so many others, cling to dillusional ideas about reviving the glory of their forefathers despite the fact that the world has changed a whole great deal since then.

This is a better argument. I wouldn't agree that it is idiotic, because then I'd have to call Robb Stark and Daenarys Targaryen idiots too...wait...that's actually not a bad thing, hmmm...

[Cas Stark]

This is a better argument. I wouldn't agree that it is idiotic, because then I'd have to call Robb Stark and Daenarys Targaryen idiots too...wait...that's actually not a bad thing, hmmm...

A case can easily be made that Robb Stark should have bent the knee after his father was executed, cut his losses and gone home to Winterfell. You can make the opposite case as well, but it's not at all clear cut that continuing on a war of independence for the North and the Riverlands was either winnable or a good idea, especially after Renly, his best hope for a quick victory, was killed.

[Frey Pie]

The reason that Balon is an idiot isn't because he's attacking the North but because he, like so many others, cling to dillusional ideas about reviving the glory of their forefathers despite the fact that the world has changed a whole great deal since then.

If Balon really wants to become independent again then attacking the North makes the best choice due to the fact that with Moat Cailin can be held against a southern attack on the North while the Iron Fleet can, hopefully, defend the Iron Islands themselves from an invasion. In some ways the Ironborn are like the Japanese of the 30s and 40s. So drunk on their own supposed superiority that they can't imagine that a power house of inferior people, like the South of Westeros or the USA, can never be defeated by their comparably tiny resources and their superiority will lead them straight to a glorious victory. Attacking Lannisport may give some good looting if successful however it will also mean that when someone claims the Iron Throne that someone will not allow an entire region and one of the largest settlements of the continent to be held or threatened by the Ironmen. So which ever target that Balon will pick it won't be something that he can actually hope to take and hold in the long run and by attacking the West he's setting himself up for a massive retalitory measure by the Iron Throne.

If Balon was smart he would immedietly declare for Renly, and later Joffrey, and try to gain a position of some influence at court and by becoming integrated with the rest of Westeros the Greyjoys and Ironmen could hope to get somewhere, like Asha proposed, and start to move things for real.

And the Isles navy will also defend the eastern coast of the north? The couple of million northerners will submit to the heavy hand of Balon and take new gods while leaving their daughters be taken as salt wives and sons as thralls? And Balon will be able to garrison the north as well as man his navy? Or the latter won't lose the way it did in the first rebellion?

Hitting the north wwhile claiming independence was the worst thing he could have done. Hitting lannisport is also not a good idea. Balon should have waited like he did in Roberts rebellion and tipped the scales in favour of the likely winner once it becomes clear they will win and use this leverage to increase his lands and prestige

I agree with your other reason for Balon being a fool though

[TheWanderer]

Buy you are right in one thing; the North is HUGE! It's ripe with trees and land mass. Trees and land mass....something that IB need.

Why exactly do the Ironborn need trees and land mass? They have a large fleet already, no real risk of damaging it and needing to replace ships, so there's no need for lumber. Of course the Ironborn in the North also make no attempts to start logging or make any indication of wanting to do so. The Iron Islands are never mentioned as being overcrowded, just the opposite in fact. What the Iron Islands is, is poor. The North is also poor, making it a poor region to try and exploit for wealth.

I don't believe Tywin would have killed Balon, simply because the Balon had many soldiers left, while Tywin's forces had suffered a bit (Jaime's army being scattered, Lord Steffon's army being slaughtered). Balon could haggle with Tywin (which is exactly what he did) about keeping pressure on the North, but only if he could have a piece of the north.

Tywin would simply delay until Balon's forces have been bled dry and his own have been refreshed. That's exactly what he says he's going to do. Time is entirely on Tywin's side in this situation.

Well and dandy, but my post was in response to someone claiming Balon had no plans. Clearly, he did.

Actually his post was whether Balon's plan was realistic, not about whether or not it existed. He clearly did have a plan, was that plan realistic? Not really.

Balon would claim the north exactly as he says: By taking each stronghold in turn. Euron's campaign shows that the Ironborn can indeed take castles by storm.

Euron, like Balon's forces before them, took a minor castle near water. Almost every castle in the North is far removed from water though (or at least, water the Ironborn can access), especially the major castles (Winterfell, the Dreadfort, White Harbour). Further the North has large forces in locations that can't be sieged (the mountains), prepared and equipped for a guerrilla war. How will the Ironborn fare, fighting an guerrilla war in a vast and foreign country during it's harshest weather? How will they take these serious castles?

Tyrion would probably have to go to war, or Balon (or his successor) would have to give up the north. It's all hypotheticals anyway, based on a plan that Balon really doesn't have any way of foreseeing.

A war between the Iron Throne and an independent Iron Islands is inevitable based simply on the realities of maintaining a unified Seven Kingdoms. If Balon can't foresee that, then he really is an idiot.

Balon's decision to invade the North probably isn't the best decision available but isn't stupid. His decision to crown himself probably isn't the best decision but again, isn't stupid. It's his decision to do both that makes it stupid. You can't separate the two when evaluating the decision because it's one act and it's one act that's dumb.

[Lord Stark]

Lionofthewest - And how are the Ironborn to not only gain the North, but hold it? The greater part of the Ironborn strength was at Moat Cailin, and they were going through hell with just dealing with the bog devils. We already know there are thousands of untapped men in the North, hundreds of strongholds that would have to be sieged, and can't just be stormed. Claiming the neck is a good place to hold off attacks, is one thing. Being about to conquer a different culture, defeat them over thousands of miles, and away from their ships, and hold these lands, while at the same time being attacked from the south, well that doesn't sound possible.

To quote Yoda: So sure of yourself, are you.

I'm not so sure the peace would never last.
Balon would claim the north exactly as he says: By taking each stronghold in turn. Euron's campaign shows that the Ironborn can indeed take castles by storm.

Balon wants the Old Ways. Who is he going to raid? On thats right there is only 1 other faction in Westeros to raid.

How do they take each stronghold in turn? Your suggesting that they would storm each and every castle? Okay so by castle 4, thousands of miles from the sea, the Ironborn, as one of the smallest fighting forces, of roughly 12k - 25k fighting men, depends on who you believe, would lose so many men that they can't continue. Storming castles works on small scale castles, such as Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square, and the likes of the small holds on the Shield Islands.

The Shield Islands were defeated because they led the Shield Islands forces away by sailing up the Mander, yeah, can't do much of that in the North. One castle surrendered because of a duel, this was Grimston. None of the battles seem major, and the Shield Islands themselves are minor, with castles that were taken, and not much else said about. It's one thing to take a small castle, and another to handle castles such as the Dreadfort, which withstood a 4 year siege against the might of the North.

Tyrion would probably have to go to war, or Balon (or his successor) would have to give up the north. It's all hypotheticals anyway, based on a plan that Balon really doesn't have any way of foreseeing.

So Balon, or his heir would have to give up their conquest, with little gains, and rewards, and after being bleed, to return to the Iron Islands to await either swearing an oath of fealty or trying to continue the Old Ways against a united Westeros?

You are implying it, by saying Balon's offer to Tywin is stupid. It's only stupid if you know what Tywin knows, that he's orchestrating other plans to rid himself of Robb. To people without this inside information (that only Tywin and the readers have), such as Mace Tyrell and Lord Redwyne, the offer seems more than worth considering.

No Balon is an idiot because he seeks to be a king, and he attacks the only other person seeking to be a king, and sends terms to Tywin, the defacto leader of the faction intent of keeping the Realm united. What Mace, a considered fool by almost all lords, and his bannerman, consider, doesn't matter. This is Tywin Reynes of Castamere, who Balon is afraid of, who he has beaten in the past, and yet knows how he treats slights against him. If your trying to win a crown, you don't attack the only other person who wants to wear a separate crown, and side with the person who wants all to bend to their crown.

I don't know how more clear people have to be. The enemy of the person I seek to overthrow doesn't make the person I seek to overthrow my friend. Doesn;t work that way. Balon was in rebellion against the Iron Throne, pure and simple. The phrase is, the enemy of my enemy is my friend, and since he was seeking to break about from the Iron Throne, that made the Iron throne his enemy, and the idiot that Balon was, instead attacked what could have been a friend and ally, and helped his enemy.

[Lord Reaver]

The greater part of the Ironborn strength was at Moat Cailin, and they were going through hell with just dealing with the bog devils.

The keyword is was. The bog devils really didn't become an issue until Victor left with most, leaving only a small garrison behind.

We already know there are thousands of untapped men in the North, hundreds of strongholds that would have to be sieged, and can't just be stormed.

And we know there's tens of thousands of untapped men on the Iron Islands. Or where did Euron's army come from ? Did they sprout magically from the earth ?

How do they take each stronghold in turn? Your suggesting that they would storm each and every castle? Okay so by castle 4, thousands of miles from the sea, the Ironborn, as one of the smallest fighting forces, of roughly 12k - 25k fighting men, depends on who you believe, would lose so many men that they can't continue.

Try double those numbers. 25k is about the absolute minimum the Iron Islands can field.

Storming castles works on small scale castles, such as Deepwood Motte, Torrhen's Square, and the likes of the small holds on the Shield Islands.

Shield islands have small holds ? Care to give textual references for that ?

The Shield Islands were defeated because they led the Shield Islands forces away by sailing up the Mander, yeah, can't do much of that in the North.

What, you can't do a bait and switch on land ? Sure you can. In fact, Theon just did.

So Balon, or his heir would have to give up their conquest, with little gains, and rewards, and after being bleed, to return to the Iron Islands to await either swearing an oath of fealty or trying to continue the Old Ways against a united Westeros?

When Balon made his attack, there was no united Westeros, nor was that a given outcome of the war.

[The Frosted King]

The reason that Balon is an idiot isn't because he's attacking the North but because he, like so many others, cling to dillusional ideas about reviving the glory of their forefathers despite the fact that the world has changed a whole great deal since then.

If Balon really wants to become independent again then attacking the North makes the best choice due to the fact that with Moat Cailin can be held against a southern attack on the North while the Iron Fleet can, hopefully, defend the Iron Islands themselves from an invasion. In some ways the Ironborn are like the Japanese of the 30s and 40s. So drunk on their own supposed superiority that they can't imagine that a power house of inferior people, like the South of Westeros or the USA, can never be defeated by their comparably tiny resources and their superiority will lead them straight to a glorious victory. Attacking Lannisport may give some good looting if successful however it will also mean that when someone claims the Iron Throne that someone will not allow an entire region and one of the largest settlements of the continent to be held or threatened by the Ironmen. So which ever target that Balon will pick it won't be something that he can actually hope to take and hold in the long run and by attacking the West he's setting himself up for a massive retalitory measure by the Iron Throne.

If Balon was smart he would immedietly declare for Renly, and later Joffrey, and try to gain a position of some influence at court and by becoming integrated with the rest of Westeros the Greyjoys and Ironmen could hope to get somewhere, like Asha proposed, and start to move things for real.

Moat Cailin works against land based armies.

What about the navy's on the narrow sea?

Kings landing, Dragonstone, the Arbor all have navies on the side of Westeros yhe ironborn can't defend.

Im gonna stop though, because if people want to hold to a plan that gets nothing, and requires a plan that works against every strength the ironborn claim, ala mobility via ships and small numbers, who am i to stop you?

You celebrate a plan that has the most numerically challenged power take on the power with the largest landmass, while also neglecting to factor in the foraging difficulty, as well as the integral need to lay siege, even though this power is extremely bad at it, have at it.

Any sense i make will earn me the label of Starkist, so i end it.

Just know you're as bad at strategy as Balon.

[The Frosted King]

The keyword is was. The bog devils really didn't become an issue until Victor left with most, leaving only a small garrison behind.

And we know there's tens of thousands of untapped men on the Iron Islands. Or where did Euron's army come from ? Did they sprout magically from the earth ?

Try double those numbers. 25k is about the absolute minimum the Iron Islands can field.

Shield islands have small holds ? Care to give textual references for that ?

What, you can't do a bait and switch on land ? Sure you can. In fact, Theon just did.

When Balon made his attack, there was no united Westeros, nor was that a given outcome of the war.

How was that not a given, when Balon hamstrung the only fellow separatist?

Whether Tywin, Stannis or Renly won in the south, once things were settled, they'd look north.

Do you think that wasn't so?

[Frey Pie]

If when Robb wanted independence he went and attacked the Vale who was neutral or actually wanted to ally with him, would this then be a good strategy?

[Lee-Sensei]

Moat Cailin works against land based armies.

What about the navy's on the narrow sea?

Kings landing, Dragonstone, the Arbor all have navies on the side of Westeros yhe ironborn can't defend.

Im gonna stop though, because if people want to hold to a plan that gets nothing, and requires a plan that works against every strength the ironborn claim, ala mobility via ships and small numbers, who am i to stop you?

You celebrate a plan that has the most numerically challenged power take on the power with the largest landmass, while also neglecting to factor in the foraging difficulty, as well as the integral need to lay siege, even though this power is extremely bad at it, have at it.

Any sense i make will earn me the label of Starkist, so i end it.

Just know you're as bad at strategy as Balon.

You're exaggerating. The Iron Fleet is one of the greatest if not the greatest naval power in Westeros.

[The Frosted King]

You're exaggerating. The Iron Fleet is one of the greatest if not the greatest naval power in Westeros.

Yes my wise friend. Only it's on the wrong side of the continent, isn't it?