Theories: the plausibility index

[It's Not That Littlefinger]

Hippocras, on 04 Aug 2014 - 11:35 PM, said:

No, it is not what most people hope, because Cersei survives her trial, which means whoever is the Faith's champion will die. So no one wants the Hound to be that guy.

We're not 100% sure about that. I don't think we can judge the outcome based on one line in "Mercy" that may or may not mean something.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

We're not 100% sure about that. I don't think we can judge the outcome based on one line in "Mercy" that may or may not mean something.

I think Cersei survives but I don't base it on that line in that preview chapter at all. I base it on the unfairness factor in the series. Cersei who is guilty gets off, and Margaery who is innocent dies. Fits right in with things like killing Ned, and the Red Wedding.

It also moves things into place nicely for Tommen's death, Myrcella's crowning, Cersei's final descent into madness, Myrcella's death, and Cersei's death at the hands of the little brother she never suspected. Of course of the valonqar isn't Jaime this doesn't work nearly as well. But there are a couple other options where it could still work (Aegon and Trystane mainly).

[Hippocras]

We're not 100% sure about that. I don't think we can judge the outcome based on one line in "Mercy" that may or may not mean something.

It is not just that. We have a direct prophesy.

The prophesy says she will see all of her children crowned and then dead before she dies, and she will be killed by the Valonqar, probably hers.

There is not time for all of that to happen before the trials. If she loses her trial she will die, and we know she doesn't die yet.

[sandywinder]

How do we 'know' she will die if she loses the trial? Other people (like Tyrion, Jon) have been in much worse scrapes than this.

[Hippocras]

How do we 'know' she will die if she loses the trial? Other people (like Tyrion, Jon) have been in much worse scrapes than this.

She doesn't have any friends left to help her escape as Tyrion did, and she would be held by the Faith, not the crown, so no secret Red Keep passages to use. Qyburn can't help her there even if he were willing, which I doubt.

She is accused of having the High Septon murdered among other things, specifically called "capital" crimes. Meaning the punishment is death.

She needs to win her trial to live.

[bent branch]

She doesn't have any friends left to help her escape as Tyrion did, and she would be held by the Faith, not the crown, so no secret Red Keep passages to use. Qyburn can't help her there even if he were willing, which I doubt.

She is accused of having the High Septon murdered among other things, specifically called "capital" crimes. Meaning the punishment is death.

She needs to win her trial to live.

I agree with much of what you said here. However, the bolded part is not true. The whole reason behind the Walk of Shame was to get Cersei out of the Faith's control and into the control of the crown. Yes, Cersei is going to have her trial, but the crown can refuse to turn Cersei back over to the Faith. That is the reason the conditions for Cersei's release were made so awful.

[Hippocras]

I agree with much of what you said here. However, the bolded part is not true. The whole reason behind the Walk of Shame was to get Cersei out of the Faith's control and into the control of the crown. Yes, Cersei is going to have her trial, but the crown can refuse to turn Cersei back over to the Faith. That is the reason the conditions for Cersei's release were made so awful.

If she lost the trial I am pretty sure she would be in the Faith's custody again. New crime, new punishment. The walk of shame was for different crimes.

[A bowl of brown]

R+L=J 10 Can't see this not being true

The Great Northern Conspiracy 7 Depends a bit how far you want to take it but they're up to something

fAegon is a Blackfyre 8 I'm pretty sure he is but its not R+L=J yet

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 1 Realy don't see it

Tyrion is a secret Targ 2 Bit more plausible but still no. It would ruin Tyrion's arc.

Varys is a Blackfyre 7 I think he's Serra's brother

Coldhands is the Night's King 4 Still a bit speculative for me

Gravedigging Hound 10 Certain

Robet Strong is the Mountain 10 Though maybe with a different head or none.

Jojen Paste 3 Plausible but don' t like it

The Green Grace is the Harpy 8 Pretty sure she is

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 1

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 2

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 6 I like it, but I doubt we'll ever find out for sure.

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 1 Pretty much confirmed she's not but I don't think it's impossible she escaped with the Blackfish

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 10 Ghost of High Heart confirmed as far as I'm concerned

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 3

Theon Durden 3 Plausible, but I'm not a big fan of it

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 10

Alleras = Sarella 10

ETA:

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one! -10 This is just bonkers. This one cracked all the pots.

[AlaynConY]

I'll just list those I've read previously about:

I'm not giving '10's, since we can't be sure about anything in this series...

R+L=J: 9 (The surest theory so far)

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 5 (Not sure we'll be ridding of Boltons so easily...)

Aegon is a Blackfyre: 8 (It fits strangely well, and it would turn ToDaE into some kind background explanation of BF rebelion).

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 1

Tyrion is a secret Targ: 1

Varys is a Blackfyre: 7 (Which would his interest in crowning a Blackfyre otherwise? Because if Aegon is a Blackfyre Varys would surely know it)

Coldhands is the Night's King: 1

Gravedigging Hound: 9

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 9 (Or Zombgregor, or something like that)

Jojen Paste: 7 (I hadn't read till now... and now that I read it... yiks! It seems terrifying plausible...)

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 3 (She hides something, but I don't think she's Arthur's sister)

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 5 (Plausible but... don't know, we'll see. Plus, Rickon is still out there...)

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9 (A too much convenient accident, it was).

Alleras = Sarella: 9 (I hadn't thought of it until I read it, but... it seems totally right).

[Consigliere]

R+L=J: 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 8

fAegon is a Blackfyre: 7

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 1

Tyrion is a secret Targ: 1

Varys is a Blackfyre: 5

Coldhands is the Night's King: 4

Gravedigging Hound: 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10

Jojen Paste: 0

The Green Grace is the Harpy: 9

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 0

Missandei is a Faceless Man: 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 4

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 3

Theon Durden: 0

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 10

Alleras = Sarella: 10

HR = HS: 2

ETA.

Nights Watch = Lightbringer: 6

[The Holy Goat]

100% certain = essentialy confirmed already, sure I believe it.

0% certain = no chance in hell that I will believe this crap.

Robet Strong is actually Gregor Clegane - 100% certain.

The Gravedigger at Quet Isle is actually Sandor Clegane - 100% certain.

Novice Alleras is actually Sarella Sand - 100% certain.

Rhaegar Targaryen + Lyanna Stark = Jon Snow - 95% certain.

Euron Greyjoy hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon Greyjoy - 95% certain.

The Knight of the Laughing Tree was actually Lyanna Stark - 80% certain.

The Harpy is actually the Green Grace - 75% certain.

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 70% certain.

Aegon Targaryen VI is of Blackfyre descent - 55% certain.

Varys is of Blackfyre descent - 25% certain.

Septa Lemore is actually Ashara Dayne - 15% certain.

Coldhands is the Night's King - 15% certain.

The Hooded man is infact Theon Greyjoy himself - 5% certain.

Jojen Reed was turned into weirwood paste - 0% certain.

Oberyn Martell poisoned Tywin Lannister - 0% certain.

Tyrion Lannister is secretly of Targaryen descent - 0% certain.

Cersei Lannister and Jaime Lannister are secretly of Targaryen descent - 0% certain.

Jeyne Westerling is pregnant with Robb Starks child - 0% certain.

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom of Valyria - 0% certain.

Missandei is a Faceless Man - 0% certain.

The High Sparrow is actually Howland Reed - 0% certain.

[cxvb]

Is this going to be compiled? I'd be interested in he average probabilities of the various theories as estimated by the forum regulars (a biased sample, but a group that could be considered an "expert panel").

[ChillyPolly]

Is this going to be compiled? I'd be interested in he average probabilities of the various theories as estimated by the forum regulars (a biased sample, but a group that could be considered an "expert panel").

If we are going to take a stand, a simple "yes" or "no" would be more interesting. If I declare a theory to have a 6 in 10 chance of being correct or incorrect, and then book 6 comes out and establishes it one way or another, then my odds calculation will not have been proven or disproven.

Of course, some people are strangely paranoid about taking positions that can be proven wrong; as though it were critically important that they be right all the time. But apart from that, it seems more fun to go out on a limb, and take the risk of being wrong.

[sandywinder]

She doesn't have any friends left to help her escape as Tyrion did, and she would be held by the Faith, not the crown, so no secret Red Keep passages to use. Qyburn can't help her there even if he were willing, which I doubt.

She is accused of having the High Septon murdered among other things, specifically called "capital" crimes. Meaning the punishment is death.

She needs to win her trial to live.

The one thing we know about GRRM is that he loves to put people in imminent danger of their deaths and then somehow rescue them from that fate. You say she has no friends but she has the best friend of all, King Tommen. I can see her surviving the trial of combat even if she loses it. A theory I have is that she loses her tongue and/or her eyes as punishment and Jaime, much later, strangles her out of love for the despair she is in after Myrcella dies.

ETA: Would it not be so in keeping with GRRM that Jaime loses his hand, Tyrion his nose and Cersei her tongue?

N.B. Tyrion was accused of killing King Joffre but there was talk of him going to the Wall.

[Hippocras]

^ha ha!!! speak no evil. I kind of like it.

[dielsis]

ETA: Would it not be so in keeping with GRRM that Jaime loses his hand, Tyrion his nose and Cersei her tongue?

This actually makes more sense than a good number of the theories proposed for rating. Obviously, if she wins it doesn't matter, but still.

[bent branch]

If she lost the trial I am pretty sure she would be in the Faith's custody again. New crime, new punishment. The walk of shame was for different crimes.

If the crown agrees to turn her over. Otherwise the faith will have to take her back by force, not an easy task, even if Cersei has allowed them to rearm.

[Hippocras]

If the crown agrees to turn her over. Otherwise the faith will have to take her back by force, not an easy task, even if Cersei has allowed them to rearm.

Maybe...but we'd better not bet Sandor's life on it!

[Julia Martell]

Is this going to be compiled? I'd be interested in he average probabilities of the various theories as estimated by the forum regulars (a biased sample, but a group that could be considered an "expert panel").

I nominate you for this job :-)

[cxvb]

mean stdev N se ci up ci low

R+L=J 9.32 1.75 61 0.22 9.75 8.89

The Great Northern Conspiracy 6.37 1.94 59 0.25 6.86 5.88

fAegon is a Blackfyre 6.45 2.31 61 0.3 7.04 5.86

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 2.27 1.97 61 0.25 2.76 1.78

Tyrion is a secret Targ 2.55 2.21 61 0.28 3.1 2

Varys is a Blackfyre 4.76 2.4 59 0.31 5.37 4.15

Coldhands is the Night's King 3.27 2.19 58 0.29 3.84 2.7

Gravedigging Hound 9.24 1.16 61 0.15 9.53 8.95

Robet Strong is the Mountain 9.58 0.76 61 0.1 9.78 9.38

Jojen Paste 3.42 2.81 59 0.37 4.15 2.69

The Green Grace is the Harpy 6.88 1.69 53 0.23 7.33 6.43

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 3.28 2.33 60 0.3 3.87 2.69

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 1.96 1.94 57 0.26 2.47 1.45

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 5.45 2.84 60 0.37 6.18 4.72

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 2.45 2.37 59 0.31 3.06 1.84

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 8.35 2.32 61 0.3 8.94 7.76

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 4.07 2.71 55 0.37 4.8 3.34

Theon Durden 3.79 2.83 53 0.39 4.55 3.03

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 7.88 2.36 59 0.31 8.49 7.27

Alleras = Sarella 9.66 0.81 61 0.1 9.86 9.46

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 2.44 1.87 35 0.32 3.07 1.81

- Thanks to everyone who kept the original order of items and used the range indicated by the thread opener: You made the job easier.

- I checked for order of theories and theories left out and am fairly confident the raw numbers are accurate.

- I might have inadvertently missed posters on my lengthy ignore list. Sorry.

- Note that the Howland Reed number is based on 35 posters only.

- s.e., ci upper and lower are probably meaningless. I've got some boxplots that are more informative but are not yet presentable.