Theories: the plausibility index

[TheNinjaDC]

"I thought HBO made the theory stronger if it made you conclude that Jojen is dead, no?"

There is a difference between Jojen dieing and Jojen being sacrificed and squashed into Weir juice.

Jojen dying was/is going to happen as made very apparent through all of Dance and his sickly health.

Him simply being offed via fire ball(with absolutely no remains) implies his body being ground into weir juice is not a plot point.

[Hippocras]

"I thought HBO made the theory stronger if it made you conclude that Jojen is dead, no?"

There is a difference between Jojen dieing and Jojen being sacrificed and squashed into Weir juice.

Jojen dying was/is going to happen as made very apparent through all of Dance and his sickly health.

Him simply being offed via fire ball(with absolutely no remains) implies his body being ground into weir juice is not a plot point.

yep. Jojen was always going to die and always knew it in the books. That has nothing to do with the notion he became paste.

[ChillyPolly]

Here's my answers

R+L=J = 9

The Great Northern Conspiracy = 0 - This is not a single proposition that can be confirmed or denied; or have a chance of being correct.

fAegon is a Blackfyre = 3

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs = 4

Tyrion is a secret Targ = 3

Varys is a Blackfyre = 2

Coldhands is the Night's King = 1

Gravedigging Hound = 10

Robert Strong is the Mountain = 10

Jojen Paste = 4 (That's not being unsupportive - there's just too little to confirm it yet).

The Green Grace is the Harpy = 6

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne = 6

Missaindei is a Faceless Man = 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin = 3

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North = 4

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon = 2

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom = 1 (I don't believe it will ever be confirmed or denied)

Theon Durden = 2 (Theon who?)

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree = 3

Alleras = Sarella = 10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow = 1

[ChillyPolly]

Apparently "unpopular" Theories not on the list:

We have seen the last of Sam: from now on its Fake Sam the Faceless Man.

Myrcella is dead and being impersonated by Rosamund in the Water Gardens.

Quentyn is alive; it was the Tattered Prince (incognito as one of the Windblown in the raid) who died on Dany's bead.

Brienne was hanged; It was UnBrienne the "Shadow" who came to collect Jaime.

[Julia Martell]

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 5 could be but they don't seem to have that power, I always thought it was the greed of Valyria

... the Valyrians dug too greedily and too deep.... Sorry...

Wow, if R+L=J turns out to be all in our heads (which I doubt) we'll all have enough egg on our faces to make an omelette large enough to feed King's Landing for the whole winter.

[Gnivil]

Huh? What theories has the show confirmed?

Craster's sons = Others off the top of my head.

[Julia Martell]

Craster's sons = Others off the top of my head.

Or they're just making shit up because it looks cool?

[HexMachina]

Craster's sons = Others off the top of my head.

That one is stated in the books, albeit in a less whack you over the head with it way.

ETA: the quote

Gilly was crying. “Me and the babe. Please. I’ll be your wife, like I was Craster’s. Please, ser crow. He’s a boy, just like Nella said he’d be. If you don’t take him, they will.”

“They?” said Sam, and the raven cocked its black head and echoed, “They. They. They.”

“The boy’s brothers,” said the old woman on the left. “Craster’s sons. The white cold’s rising out there, crow. I can feel it in my bones. These poor old bones don’t lie. They’ll be here soon, the sons.”

[Bacon Dragon the Crispy]

I like The Dornish Master Plan myself. It should be included in this list.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6TBfdd_xNVo

[Mycah Bluth]

R+L=J = 9

The Great Northern Conspiracy = 6. A lot of people are averse to it for being too convoluted, but it doesn't have to be all that organized, just more of a common motivation to get all their enemies to bleed each other dry and then put a Stark back on top. Doesn't require a "conspiracy" so much as a tacit understanding of what the goal is.

fAegon is a Blackfyre = 3. I don't know, I don't find Targaryen v. Blackfyre relations all that compelling and I'm not at all convinced that Varys' endgame has anything to do with either.

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs = 0.

Tyrion is a secret Targ = 3. I would be mad. One is enough. This would destroy everything that made his relationship with Tywin so amazing and Tyrion also doesn't need another reason to feel super special and get even more of the limelight.

Varys is a Blackfyre = 4. I can see it, but again, I have a hard time believe Blackfyre dominance is his alpha and omega.

Coldhands is the Night's King = 4. I'm inclined to think his new incarnation will be Jon or Stannis, but I can see the OG NK being Coldhands.

Gravedigging Hound = 10. Our boy Sandy is on the up-and-up. NEVER THOUGHT TO BET ON THE HOUND, DID YOU, BAELISH?

Robert Strong is the Mountain = 10. Like….there is no conceivable way he's not.

Jojen Paste = 5. Call me a sinner, but I actually kind of dig the idea….it adds a very otherworldly, pagan element to Bran's initiation.

The Green Grace is the Harpy = 8.

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne = 3.

Missandei is a Faceless Man = 1. No, please.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin = 9.

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North = 3.

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon = 8.

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom = 1. Putting this on Valyrian fracking.

Theon Durden = 0. PLEASE NO.

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree = 8.

Alleras = Sarella = 10.

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow = 1.

[acco da buhn]

9 R+L=J

7 The Great Northern Conspiracy

6 fAegon is a Blackfyre

2 Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs

4 Tyrion is a secret Targ

7 Varys is a Blackfyre

5 Coldhands is the Night's King

8 Gravedigging Hound

10 Robet Strong is the Mountain

5 Jojen Paste

- The Green Grace is the Harpy

2 Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne

1 Missaindei is a Faceless Man

3 Oberyn poisoned Tywin

3 Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North

7 Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon

6 The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom

7 Theon Durden

8 Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree

9 Alleras = Sarella

2 Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - how could I forget that one!

[ChillyPolly]

The Great Northern Conspiracy = 6. A lot of people are averse to it for being too convoluted, but it doesn't have to be all that organized, just more of a common motivation to get all their enemies to bleed each other dry and then put a Stark back on top. Doesn't require a "conspiracy" so much as a tacit understanding of what the goal is.

My objection is simply that I don't know what it means. Sure, it does not HAVE to be too organized. Or it could be. Because the phrase "Great Northern Conspiracy" can mean any number of things. Should I give it a 1 because I am sure all the speculations are not 100% accurate? Or should I give it a 10 because I am sure those Northerners are up to something?

[BastardlyRock]

R+L=J 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy 1

fAegon is a Blackfyre 6

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 3

Tyrion is a secret Targ 3

Varys is a Blackfyre 5

Coldhands is the Night's King 1

Gravedigging Hound 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain 10

Jojen Paste 7

The Green Grace is the Harpy 1

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 1

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 1

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 5

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 1

Theon Durden 1

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 10

Alleras = Sarella 10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 1

[Ser Creighton]

My objection is simply that I don't know what it means. Sure, it does not HAVE to be too organized. Or it could be. Because the phrase "Great Northern Conspiracy" can mean any number of things. Should I give it a 1 because I am sure all the speculations are not 100% accurate? Or should I give it a 10 because I am sure those Northerners are up to something?

Actually in order to be a theory it does need to be organized, in fact the original OP and many of the people who work on it have no problems telling others they don't have a theory and picking apart the structure of others ideas and posts.

The basis is this

1. Robb legitimized Jon in his will. This is not a theory this happened in the books. You may as well say Oberyn is a Prince of Dorne. Most of the people who witnessed said Theory are dead or captive.

2. Robb sent two people to Greywater Watch with his will to give it to Howland. Not a theory, that's what Robb did.

3. Wyman Manderly is among all the Northern lords seeking to put Jon on the throne. This is where it all starts to go south. You see for a year now all these people have been planning to take back the North and Riverlands and the Vale, gift wrap it and hand it to Jon without telling him. Like a nice present.

4. They have secretly decided that the best place for Jon right now is the wall, sure it has the reputation of being filled with Cut throats, thieves, and killers, but this is the best place for him. Sure they know the last LC was murdered by his own men, but what does that matter Jon needs a nice present. These men also have refused to send help to their King or King regent even though he has sent out multiple letters begging for help one of them including the threat of a large invading force. Now even if there was a secret plot and they did not want to give it away, none of these lords sending Jon any help is ludicrous. Wyman holds a fleet of over 50 war ships, now he does not need to send Jon help but it would make sense to send a ship with a group of men in disguise to maybe secure their king when he is asking for help.

5. There are so many holes in it, it's not even funny. It's constantly changing at one point Dorne and the Reach were in on it along with the Vale, North, and Riverlands. It's been through phases where it was giving the entire country to Jon and everyone knew he was a Targ but Jon and was going to seat him on the Iron throne after they dealt with his enemies for him. It's convoluted, vague, it generalizes, and everything is a clue. The wind was blowing out of a north well that's a sign that the crownlands are in on the GNC as well, because the person who noticed the wind was in the crownlands at the time.

6. It doesn't even go into text analysis, basically some fans decided they wanted this to happen and are trying to find things in the book to say it will happen. That's not analysis that's distortion. The secret plot to help the king for the king without telling the king or helping the king even when he is asking for it to the point they let him get stabbed. Yeah Wyman with his large heavy fleet could not send one ship with 50 guys in disguise to secure Jon and keep and eye on him. 1 Ship or three it makes no matter. Where is that ship going? Braavos. Send two or three ships to Braavos unload the a small force from each ship, have them charter a cog to Eastwatch or hell drop them off ten miles up the coast and let them walk the last 10 miles and they can say they are from wherever and have come to join. The Hill tribes can send a couple of dozen guys, the Flints, you name it with any number of a 100 excuses to say why they are there. Sure a cripple boy, a couple kids and Hodor can get there with next to no detection, yet a small group of men from the hills can't. Or just send them with one of the wandering crows as prisoners.

7. Sure they all had plan to help Jon, except none of the helped him when he asked for it. Makes perfect sense.

[Ser Eric]

2. Robb sent two people to Greywater Watch with his will to give it to Howland. Not a theory, that's what Robb did.

That's not even true.

[Ingelheim]

"I thought HBO made the theory stronger if it made you conclude that Jojen is dead, no?" There is a difference between Jojen dieing and Jojen being sacrificed and squashed into Weir juice. Jojen dying was/is going to happen as made very apparent through all of Dance and his sickly health. Him simply being offed via fire ball(with absolutely no remains) implies his body being ground into weir juice is not a plot point.

yep. Jojen was always going to die and always knew it in the books. That has nothing to do with the notion he became paste.

I'd say that's wrong. HBO killed him because even the creepiest Unsullied wouldn't stand seeing Bran eating his old friend.

[HexMachina]

I'd say that's wrong. HBO killed him because even the creepiest Unsullied wouldn't stand seeing Bran eating his old friend.

We can see people burned alive, "pregnant" people stabbed in the stomach, Oberyn's head crushed, Craster's wives being raped, Thenn cannibals etc. etc...but we can't "see" (we wouldn't even need to see, since Leaf prepares the wierwood paste off screen) jojen-paste? :dunno:

(note; I don't actually buy this theory, but if it was true it would hardly have been the most gruesome thing GoT has)

[thisistherevolt]

What about the theory that this all a fantasy created by an autistic child staring into a snowglobe?

[JNR]

4. They have secretly decided that the best place for Jon right now is the wall, sure it has the reputation of being filled with Cut throats, thieves, and killers, but this is the best place for him. Sure they know the last LC was murdered by his own men, but what does that matter Jon needs a nice present. These men also have refused to send help to their King or King regent even though he has sent out multiple letters begging for help one of them including the threat of a large invading force. Now even if there was a secret plot and they did not want to give it away, none of these lords sending Jon any help is ludicrous. Wyman holds a fleet of over 50 war ships, now he does not need to send Jon help but it would make sense to send a ship with a group of men in disguise to maybe secure their king when he is asking for help.

This is exactly my perspective, and the reason I gave GNC a 3.

5. There are so many holes in it, it's not even funny. It's constantly changing ...

6. ...basically some fans decided they wanted this to happen and are trying to find things in the book to say it will happen. That's not analysis that's distortion.

I fear this is true of another, widely-accepted theory. Several, actually. The end result of which is not only to delude the fanbase, but to obscure truth and prevent it from coming out.

I have placed various bets accordingly, and would be thrilled if Vegas would offer me formal odds and thus let me bleed the casinos dry.

[wolfmaid7]

R+L=J -8 possibly not true

The Great Northern Conspiracy 1

fAegon is a Blackfyre -5

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs -3

Tyrion is a secret Targ 3

Varys is a Blackfyre 5

Coldhands is the Night's King 3

Gravedigging Hound 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain 10

Jojen Paste 0-I think he's dead but just not paste

The Green Grace is the Harpy -7

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 0

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 1

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 5

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 0

Theon Durden 1

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 10

Alleras = Sarella 10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 0

Craster's sons=WWs 0