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Theories: the plausibility index


Julia Martell

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R+L=J: 9

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 5

fAegon is a Blackfyre: 9

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 3

Tyrion is a secret Targ: 6

Varys is a Blackfyre: 5

Coldhands is the Night's King: 2

Gravedigging Hound: 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10

Jojen Paste: 7

The Green Grace is the Harpy: 5

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 2

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 1

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 7

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 3

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 4

Theon Durden: 5

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 8

Alleras = Sarella: 5

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow: 1

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R+L=J: 10, if I figure a theory out for myself in the second book before even realising there was a forum.I'm a gonna presume I am correct when I discover the rest of the universe also clocked the same thing.
The Great Northern Conspiracy: 7, I doubt every element will fall into place but I believe the basic principle.
fAegon is a Blackfyre: 10, though I think he is a Blackfyre/Brightflame combo.
Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 0
Tyrion is a secret Targ: 0
Varys is a Blackfyre: 0 no he is a Brightflame.
Coldhands is the Night's King: 2 Huh, the identity of coldhands doesn't really interest me.
Gravedigging Hound: 10 well obviously.
Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10 ditto
Jojen Paste: -10 Just no FFS this is an absurd "theory" I will eat my hat if this is true!
The Green Grace is the Harpy: 6 maybe, couldn't really give a toss who the Harpy is/was.
Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 5 Maybe, I think Ashara has to pop up somewhere. just don't know why she would be with fAegon?
Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 0 just no, people have way too much time on their hands
Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 8 Pretty keen on this theory.
Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 0, errrrr....he already said no guys.
Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9
The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 4 possibly, not really interested in FM.
Theon Durden: 0, this would be shit.
Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 10 ar'z fookin certain mate.
Alleras = Sarella: 10, obviously
Howland Reed = the High Sparrow: 0 Bhahahahahha!
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R+L=J 10. Martin's Publisher guessed the mother correctly after reading just AGOT...come on.



The Great Northern Conspiracy This is like 17 theories smushed together. I'll give the crux of it a 7. They're up to something, alright.



fAegon is a Blackfyre 3. The evidence is tenuous as best, and though the narrative fits, the narrative of him being real, or the PWP is more satisfying (IMO). As for Aegon not being the son of Elia and Rhaegar, I'd give that a 7 or 8.



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 2? It's not the most cracked of the pottery.



Tyrion is a secret Targ If I gave the former a 2, I guess this one gets a 3, because of his eye and dragon dreams.



Varys is a Blackfyre This is contingent on Aegon being a BF. 1.



Coldhands is the Night's King 2, but full disclosure, I'm being unduly influenced by the show.



Gravedigging Hound 9.5. Martin practically hung a sign around his neck saying "Sandor."



Robert Strong is the Mountain 10. Wasn't this more or less stated?



Jojen Paste 5. This one is a jump ball for me.



The Green Grace is the Harpy It's plausible, but there's a lot of other contenders that also fit. So 6, maybe 6.5.



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 2. Though it's possible grief aged her up a few years, a "young maiden" in 281 looking "past 40" in 300, and no comment about her haunting eyes lowers its likelihood. I can't shake the feeling AD may turn up though, which is why this gets a 2 and not a 1.



Missaindei is a Faceless Man Thank you for introducing me to this! I don't really buy it; I think she's just a fairly smart, albeit slightly creepy kid. But the supporting evidence wasn't complete shit, so 3.



Oberyn poisoned Tywin This is very plausible: 7.5 (feel free to round up for EEEEELLLLLLIIIIIAAAAA)



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 1. I think her mom saw to that. Plus didn't GRRM say something on this?



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 8.5. That woods witch has been pretty damn on point.



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 4. Plausible, well above crack-pot, the narrative fits, but we don't have any solid evidence.



Theon Durden 2. Plausible-ish in terms of his mental state, but I think his physical state rules a lot of this out.



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 10. I mean, slim, slim chance that Howland used magic or Benny suddenly was a great jouster, but I find that so difficult to believe.



Alleras = Sarella 10. This isn't even a "theory" in my book. Besides, who else would be the "younger sister" of Nym who loves Oldtown?



Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 1. I don't even want to dignify it with an explanation.

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R+L=J ... 10 - This is known, the clues are out there, it's just a matter of writing it down.


The Great Northern Conspiracy ... 5


fAegon is a Blackfyre ... 7 - likely, but there's still chances for him being just the pisswater prince or the true Aegon


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs ... 0


Tyrion is a secret Targ ... 0


Varys is a Blackfyre ... 0


Coldhands is the Night's King ... 0


Gravedigging Hound ...5


Robet Strong is the Mountain ... 8


Jojen Paste ... 0


The Green Grace is the Harpy ... 8


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne ... 2


Missaindei is a Faceless Man ... 1


Oberyn poisoned Tywin ... 0


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North ... 2


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon ... 7


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom ... 5


Theon Durden ... 7


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree ... 5


Alleras = Sarella ... Isn't this canon? 10 for gods' sake


Howland Reed = the High Sparrow ... 6 - plausible, but rather far fetched. HR is a crannogmen so not very known in court, but someone ought to remember him from Harrenhal.


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R+L=J: 9



The Great Northern Conspiracy: 6



Aegon is a Blackfyre: 1



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 4



Tyrion is a secret Targ: 1



Varys is a Blackfyre: 1



Coldhands is the Night's King: 4



Gravedigging Hound: 9



Robert Strong is the Mountain: 10



Jojen Paste: 1



The Green Grace is the Harpy: 7



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 8



Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 2



Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 9



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 1



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 7



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 1



Theon Durden: 2



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 6



Alleras = Sarella: 8



Howland Reed = High Sparrow: 5



Let me add- The Dornish Master Plan: 2


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R+L=J 9


The Great Northern Conspiracy Hard one, I really liked that last Preston Jacobs vid about the GNC and I believe his theory, so I suppose its an 8 or something


fAegon is a Blackfyre 9


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 3


Tyrion is a secret Targ 3


Varys is a Blackfyre 7, maybe he is a brightflame, I think Serra is more likely to be a Blackfyre.


Coldhands is the Night's King 6


Gravedigging Hound 9


Robet Strong is the Mountain 10, it is basically known :P


Jojen Paste 7


The Green Grace is the Harpy I don't have a single idea, not my favorite part about the story :P


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 3


Missaindei is a Faceless Man 3


Oberyn poisoned Tywin 7


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 0


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 9


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 7


Theon Durden 3


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 3, I don't think a 14 years old girl can defeat 3 full grown tournament champions in a jousting duel, no matter what.


Alleras = Sarella 9


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This seems fun.



R+L=J :10


The Great Northern Conspiracy :7


fAegon is a Blackfyre :8


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs :2


Tyrion is a secret Targ :2


Varys is a Blackfyre :3


Coldhands is the Night's King :1


Gravedigging Hound :7


Robet Strong is the Mountain :9


Jojen Paste :6


The Green Grace is the Harpy :8


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne :2


Missaindei is a Faceless Man :0


Oberyn poisoned Tywin :6


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North :5


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon :8


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom :7


Theon Durden :3


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree :4


Alleras = Sarella :10


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R+L=J 10


The Great Northern Conspiracy 5


fAegon is a Blackfyre 5


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 3


Tyrion is a secret Targ 3


Varys is a Blackfyre 5


Coldhands is the Night's King 5


Gravedigging Hound 10


Robet Strong is the Mountain 10


Jojen Paste 6


The Green Grace is the Harpy 10


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 3


Missaindei is a Faceless Man 2


Oberyn poisoned Tywin 9


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 4


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 9


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 4


Theon Durden 4


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 5


Alleras = Sarella 7


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  • 1 month later...

Is it too late to join?



R+L=J 10000 With all the clues in the book, I'm pretty sure of this one.


The Great Northern Conspiracy 8 Basically fairly plausible, though it's a rather complex theory, and not all elements are equally so.


fAegon is a Blackfyre 6 He's either one or not - he does have the Targaryen look, but I can't believe he's the real Aegon.


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 1 Just too many secret Targaryens and I don't see the reason why.


Tyrion is a secret Targ 3 I liked the idea at first (because of the dragons), but now I'm not convinced at all. Not impossible though.


Varys is a Blackfyre 5 Anything is possible with regard to Varys.


Coldhands is the Night's King 4 I feel he should be someone who is mentioned elsewhere in the books, too. Not necessarily the Night's King, but it's a possibility.


Gravedigging Hound 10 That seems very plausible (all the clues seem to be right), and it would be very fitting.


Robet Strong is the Mountain 10 It is just horrible, but very likely. We know his head was still needed for some purpose.


Jojen Paste 1 NOOOOOOO! I refuse to believe it.


The Green Grace is the Harpy 5 Perhaps.


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 3 She is not the kind of person I imagine Ashara Dayne, but essentially I like the theory. At the moment, I don't see much actual proof though.


Missaindei is a Faceless Man 1 I haven't seen anything that could convince me.


Oberyn poisoned Tywin 7 With what we know of Oberyn...


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 3 Hm... I haven't seen much proof yet, apart from the fact the Jaime and Catelyn gave different judgements on her figure, but after all, one is a woman, the other is a man. Then again there must be some hidden surprises in the books, things that Martin doesn't want us to figure out too easily or too soon.


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 9 Euron had a hand in it - if not through a Faceless Man, then otherwise


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom Can't decide


Theon Durden No idea


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 7 It would be kind of neat.


Alleras = Sarella No idea


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The majority of these I don't even know, and don't really want to know.



R+L=J: 9


The Great Northern Conspiracy : ?


fAegon is a Blackfyre: 2


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 1


Tyrion is a secret Targ : 1


Varys is a Blackfyre: 3


Coldhands is the Night's King: 3


Gravedigging Hound: 8


Robert Strong is the Mountain: 10


Jojen Paste: ?


The Green Grace is the Harpy: 5


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne: 1


Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 1


Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 1


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 2


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 9


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 2


Theon Durden: ?


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 8


Alleras = Sarella: ?


Howland Reed = the High Sparrow: 1


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R+L=J- 9 (GRRM might change it now the theory is so famous, although I doubt it).

The Great Northern Conspiracy- 7

fAegon is a Blackfyre- 7

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs-2

Tyrion is a secret Targ-4

Varys is a Blackfyre-4

Coldhands is the Night's King- 6

Gravedigging Hound-10

Robet Strong is the Mountain-10

Jojen Paste-8

The Green Grace is the Harpy-8

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne-6

Missaindei is a Faceless Man-3

Oberyn poisoned Tywin-2

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North-2

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon-9 (There's still something in me which says Aeron killed Balon)

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom- 5

Theon Durden- 7 (I would prefer it if the hooded man was real)

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree-9

Alleras = Sarella- 10 (The name is spelt backwards. It's obvious)

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R+L=J 10


The Great Northern Conspiracy 8


fAegon is a Blackfyre 8 (I'd give 10 for Aegon is fake, but that he's blackfyre..not so sure)


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 5


Tyrion is a secret Targ 8


Varys is a Blackfyre 4 (Brightflame!)


Coldhands is the Night's King : ?? I haven't read about this theory: So can't comment


Gravedigging Hound 10


Robet Strong is the Mountain 10


Jojen Paste 1


The Green Grace is the Harpy 6


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 4


Missaindei is a Faceless Man 3


Oberyn poisoned Tywin 7


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 3


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 10


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 9


Theon Durden 5


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 10


Alleras = Sarella 10


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R+L=J - 10


The Great Northern Conspiracy - 6


fAegon is a Blackfyre - 8.5


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 2


Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3


Varys is a Blackfyre - 6


Coldhands is the Night's King - 3


Gravedigging Hound - 10


Robert Strong is the Mountain - 10


Jojen Paste - 6


The Green Grace is the Harpy - 7


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 4


Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1


Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 7


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 3


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 7


Theon Durden - 5


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9


Alleras = Sarella - 10


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I've added some more popular theories you did not mention.



Theories that I strongly believe are true, in fact they are so obvious that I'm 100% sure they're true:



R+L=J


Gravedigging Hound


Robert Strong is the Mountain


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon


Alleras = Sarella


Aegon is fake


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree



Not 100% but I do believe in them:



The Green Grace is the Harpy


Big Walder killed Little Walder



Likely to be true:



fAegon is a Blackfyre


Varys is a Blackfyre



Could be true, though I'm currently leaning against it:



Coldhands is the Night's King



Unlikely, but may be true:



Jojen Paste


Oberyn poisoned Tywin


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom


The Great Northern Conspiracy



Really unlikely:



Theon Durden


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs


The Great Vale conspiracy



Hell no - could theoretically happen, but only if GRRM has lost his mind and wants to fuck up the entire story:



Tyrion is a secret Targ



Hell no, ain't happening ,period:



Cleganebowl (Sandor as the Champion of the Faith fighting unGregor)



Too stupid for words aka your pot is completely cracked



Missaindei is a Faceless Man (what?!)


Howland Reed = the High Sparrow


Any other theories where some living character = Rhaegar, or Euron = Daario or whatever


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R+L=J - 9.5


The Great Northern Conspiracy - 6


fAegon is a Blackfyre - 8.5


Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 4


Tyrion is a secret Targ - 3


Varys is a Blackfyre - 6


Coldhands is the Night's King - 3


Gravedigging Hound - 10


Robert Strong is the Mountain - 10


Jojen Paste - 6


The Green Grace is the Harpy - 7


Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 4


Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1


Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 7


Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 3


Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10


The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 8


Theon Durden - 4


Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9.5


Alleras = Sarella - 10


Ethiagra Glover (my own pet Theory with a link to thread on it http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/119835-ethiagra-glover-aerys-secret-weapon/)- 8

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R+L=J 10.


The Great Northern Conspiracy 1



fAegon is a Blackfyre 8



Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs 0



Tyrion is a secret Targ 5



Varys is a Blackfyre 7 Makes sense only if Aegon is BF also, so the probability must be lower.



Coldhands is the Night's King 1



Gravedigging Hound 10



Robert Strong is the Mountain 10



Jojen Paste 6



The Green Grace is the Harpy 7



Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 3



Missaindei is a Faceless Man 0 Seriously? WTF?



Oberyn poisoned Tywin 1 Not totally imposiible, I guess, so 1



Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 2 (I would give more if it was more standard fantasy story, but in ASOIAF no, I don't think so)



Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 9



The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 8



Theon Durden 8. He obviously didn't do most of the killings, Mance's women were responsible for that, and Walder killed Walder, but I think it is almost certain the man he met was himself.



Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 10.



Alleras = Sarella 10.



Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 0 Another WTF?

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