Theories: the plausibility index

[HexMachina]

R+L=J -8 possibly not true

The Great Northern Conspiracy 1

fAegon is a Blackfyre -5

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs -3

Tyrion is a secret Targ 3

Varys is a Blackfyre 5

Coldhands is the Night's King 3

Gravedigging Hound 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain 10

Jojen Paste 0-I think he's dead but just not paste

The Green Grace is the Harpy -7

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 0

Missaindei is a Faceless Man 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin 1

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon 5

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom 0

Theon Durden 1

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree 10

Alleras = Sarella 10

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 0

Craster's sons=WWs 0

Craster's sons = WW is spelled out in the text.

[Julia Martell]

Craster's sons = WW is spelled out in the text.

To be fair, it's spelt out that Craster's wives believe it, not that it's true.

[HexMachina]

To be fair, it's spelt out that Craster's wives believe it, not that it's true.

Its the best word we have though, so a 0 for this theory is....odd to say the least :dunno:

[Julia Martell]

Its the best word we have though, so a 0 for this theory is....odd to say the least :dunno:

Especially since there's no 0 on this scale! (Just a little OP rage, there)

I guess it's up to the reader's judgement whether or not they accept that word. If you find it unreliable, I don't think putting the theory low on the scale is unreasonable.

[WildBlood]

R+L=J - 9

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 8

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 3

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 0 (see below)

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 0 (-10000000)

Varys is a Blackfyre - 2

Coldhands is the Night's King - 5

Gravedigging Hound - 9

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 9

Jojen Paste - 0

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 3

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 0

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 6 ish

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 0

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 2 (?)

Theon Durden - 2

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 10

Alleras = Sarella - 10

[Arya Havinfun]

What about the theory that this all a fantasy created by an autistic child staring into a snowglobe?

Wow, blast from the past! You hadda go back over 26 years for that one... and (as an explanation for all that went before) it sucked then, too! :whip:

[bent branch]

2. Robb sent two people to Greywater Watch with his will to give it to Howland. Not a theory, that's what Robb did.

That's not even true.

:agree: We are told that Glover and Mormont are sent to Greywater Watch with orders concerning a plan to attack Moat Cailin from three sides. We are never actually told what happened to the will.

[Ser Creighton]

:agree: We are told that Glover and Mormont are sent to Greywater Watch with orders concerning a plan to attack Moat Cailin from three sides. We are never actually told what happened to the will.

Don't need to know what happened to them, the reader knows what Robb did that's it. The orders for the plan were to have Howland Meet Robb. The documents were false the orders were verbal.

As for Jon

“One more matter. Lord Balon has left chaos in his wake, we hope. I would not do the same. Yet I have no son as yet, my brothers Bran and Rickon are dead, and my sister is wed to a Lannister. I’ve thought long and hard about who might follow me. I command you now as my true and loyal lords to fix your seals to this document as witnesses to my decision.”

Excerpt From: George R. R. Martin. “A Storm of Swords.” Bantam Books, 2000. iBooks.

This material may be protected by copyright.

Check out this book on the iBooks Store: https://itunes.apple.com/WebObjects/MZStore.woa/wa/viewBook?id=419935315

Glover and Mormont are 2 of the witnesses to his will. Howland does not need the paper just the knowledge. But zero evidence exists that anything is being done with the Will or who has the actual will. Mallister is a Prisoner, Greatjon is a prisoner, Edmure is a prisoner.

But a super secret plot by pretty much every lord anyone can think of to hand Jon the throne without incorporating Jon in the plan. We know Mormont and Glover were delivered as Mallister did return from Greywater. Mormont, Reed, Galbert doing something? Yes of course, everyone secretly being in on it and making secret moves all over the place all through Dance and Crows? No.

[Tolkiennerd]

R+L=J - 10

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 5

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 4

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 0

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 0

Varys is a Blackfyre - 0

Coldhands is the Night's King - 1

Gravedigging Hound - 8

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10

Jojen Paste - 5

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 2

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 0

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 0

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 1

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 1

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 5

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 1

Theon Durden - 1

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 8

Alleras = Sarella - 7

[Winds of Winter blow cold]

The people voting in this really should read "the Soiled Septa" article in the Tower of the Hand.

[Mithras]

The people voting in this really should read "the Soiled Septa" article in the Tower of the Hand.

My fav. candidate for Lemore is not there, namely Mellario of Norvos.

[Ser Eric]

My fav. candidate for Lemore is not there, namely Mellario of Norvos.

Link?

[Hippocras]

My fav. candidate for Lemore is not there, namely Mellario of Norvos.

I don't rank her that highly.

[Epyon]

R+L=J : 10 I think this is pretty much fact.

R+L = J + Meera Reed: 4 I think this is an interesting one....It makes sense that Howland Reed would take one child, and Ned the other, like Luke/Leia in Star Wars.... I don't think it's -likely- but its 100% plausible.

The Great Northern Conspiracy: 3 I think they all hold loyalty to the Starks, but I don't see them organizing a vast conspiracy for a line they think is basically wiped out

fAegon is a Blackfyre : 8 It's pretty likely in my mind

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs: 0 I just don't see it, and don't buy it. Aerys would have wanted Cersei to marry Rhaegar if he thought she could be a Targ.... and the "dragon has 3 heads" not four... Daenarys + Jon Snow are at least 2 of the 3.

Tyrion is a secret Targ: 5 I honestly have trouble with this theory... The only reason I list it as high as a 5, is because I think it is more likely than Meera, in a situation where Aegon doesn't count as one of the 3 heads of the dragon. It's somewhat plausible, but there's really very little textual evidence to back it up in any way .

Varys is a Blackfyre: 2 Possible, but I don't see it.. Far more likely in my mind that Illyrio is connected to the Blackfyres than Varys.

Coldhands is the Night's King: 1 Don't see this one at.... Maybe Benjen is Coldhands... and I had considered Roose Bolton to be a potential Night's King.

Gravedigging Hound: 9 I'm buying this one about as enthusiastically as I can.

Robet Strong is the Mountain: 10 I didn't think this was really debated... I do question who's head is up top though, and I'd think it might even be Robert Baratheon's (though the timing on that would likely leave Robert's head too decayed)

Jojen Paste: 1 Was an awesome theory, but no.... The show wouldn't have missed a chance to put something that shocking on TV

The Green Grace is the Harpy: 7 Seems likely.

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne 2 I like the theory, but I doubt it.

Missaindei is a Faceless Man: 6 Love this theory, even if I doubt it's accuracy.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin: 10 I'm convinced on this. Oberyn poisons Tywin, as part of his plan to get arrested and fight the Mountain in his own trial.

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North: 1 The show convinced me this is false. They wouldn't have blatantly stabbed Robbs wife in the pregger belly if they weren't trying to murder this rumor (akin to Jojen paste getting hit with a children-grenade)

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon: 10 Absolutely

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom: 1 I think the doom might have just been the fire god's version of the "Long Night" with the "Song of Ice and Fire" being about a war between the two gods, who where former mates (The cold one is female, and seduced the first Night's King... The fire one would be male)

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree: 10 I don't see any other likely candidate, save Jaime Lannister, but it would be -very- improbable, if not impossible for him to make it back and forth... and then never remember it openly when thinking about the tourney.

Alleras = Sarella 8 I'm not by any means convinced, but it's possible, and I think it's more likely than not true.

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow 4 I love the theory, but I really really really doubt Howland Reed, a man of the Old Gods, could so easily become Pope of Westeros' Faith of the Seven..

[Mithras]

Link?

link

[Ras Al Gimur]

R+L=J - 9 - Lots of evidence. Not 10 because there are other somewhat plausible options (although I find R + L = J way more compelling)

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 4 - Too complex for my taste…The northern lords may sure have an interest of having a King in the North, but I don't see much evidence they are all conspiring together.

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 5 - 50/50… I'd give an 8 that he's fake, but is he a Blackfyre? IIRC in Essos its not uncommon to find people with Targ looks, isn't it? So he could be just a commoner raised by Varys to be his king.

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 1 - Almost zero evidence; major evidence would be Aerys interest in Joanna..

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 2 See above ^ +1 because of the three headed dragon stuff…still, very unlikely in my opinion.

Varys is a Blackfyre - 4 Too dependent on fAegon being a Blackfyre too

Coldhands is the Night's King - 5 Maybe yes…maybe no…I don't remember anything in the books pointing to that, but not many options on who he could be.

Gravedigging Hound - 7 Likely, but he could be just a random grave digger.

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10 For me its quite obvious, idk why people rate it below Gravedigging Hound or even R + L = J! Who else could it be? Qyburn makes experiments with Gregor, Qyburn has researched necromancy, Qyburn presents Ser Robert Strong. KL sent the Mountain's head to Dorne and Ser Robert doesn't speak nor takes his helm off. Plus there's Bran's vision. The evidence is right there in the books, and less scattered than R + L = J IMO. If he isn't the Mountain, them GRRMartin is trolling us.

Jojen Paste - 7 - I'd give a 8 that he's dead or that he will die very soon. The Jojen paste theory gives it a eerie touch to the thing and there's not so much evidence against it. But what about Meera, Hodor and Summer?

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 5 Lots of other plausible options too. I don't give a damn, I just want Dany to leave Slaver's Bay…go to Westeros or to Asshai (I'd like that).

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 1 Could be anyone, based on the little evidence we have.

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 1 Right from the beginning? She was bought by Dany, was't she? But if we say that will be replaced my a Faceless Arya…hmm, I'd give a 4. Because no evidence yet, but would be interesting for the plot.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 4 Circunstancial at best, and if true it would weaken Tyrion's story, at least for me...

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 5 Possible, but if it's true, it will be a minor detail to the plot (otherwise the show will have some problems with the plot). Or is it Jeyne Poole? hahaha

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 9 The prophecy from the ghost of High Heart + such convenient timing…One more evidence and I'd give it a 10.

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 3 Its vey likely that Braavos plotted against Valyria, and probably the Faceless Men (and the Iron Bank) were involved. But the Doom doesn't fit the style of neither the Faceless Men nor the Bank...

Theon Durden - 4 It could be, but I don't think it is very interesting plot wise…(this is mostly a matter of opinion tough). Plus, I think the voices in the godswood were Bran's.

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9 Very likely, but i could be Benjen too (maybe Lyanna asked him to ride).

Alleras = Sarella - 10 Coincidences like this can happen in the real world, but in a novel, where only a limited set o characters are shown and names are created and chosen by the author? Plus, we know that she is in Oldtown.

[Doorlocks]

R+L=J - 9.5; almost certain. The big question is how this will impact the final act of the story and Jon's personal arc. There are ways it could go that are awesome, there are ways it could go that are disappointing. Since GRRM has introduced multiple switched babies and mysterious births besides Jon's, however, there is a small chance that what we think we know about Jon is actually just a sort of baby shell game.

The Great Northern Conspiracy - 6

fAegon is a Blackfyre - 7

Cersei and Jaime are secret Targs - 5

Tyrion is a secret Targ - 6. There are interesting narrative reasons for Tyrion to be a Targ and there are interesting narrative and character reasons for the twins to be Targs. They both seem about equally plausible, which probably means both are red herrings.

Varys is a Blackfyre - 4

Coldhands is the Night's King - 4

Gravedigging Hound - 10

Robet Strong is the Mountain - 10; I didn't even know we were supposed to question this until I got online.

Jojen Paste - 8. It gives Jojen's entire journey a tragic, morbid extra layer. He knew what was coming every step of the way.

The Green Grace is the Harpy - 7

Septa Lemore is Ashara Dayne - 2; there are far better theories about Ashara Dayne's life and "death"

Missaindei is a Faceless Man - 6; Good theory, but tenuous at this point.

Oberyn poisoned Tywin - 9; And I like to think that Tywin's funeral will be the source of disgusted tales and laughs for years to come. Genius revenge from Oberyn.

Jeyne is pregnant with the heir to the North - 5; Given GRRM's mention of her at Comic Con, she definitely has more of a role to play in the story... what that role is I'm not sure.

Euron hired a Faceless Man to kill Balon - 10

The Faceless Men are responsible for the Doom - 8

Theon Durden - 6

Lyanna was the Knight of the Laughing Tree - 9; Very likely, and there's no real plausible alternative known to the audience. However, I think there will be at least one more major shift in what we think we know about what was going on with the Targaryens, the Starks, the Daynes, and the Reeds, so the identity could be thrown into question.

Alleras = Sarella - 10.

Howland Reed = the High Sparrow - 8. There have been a flood of good Howland Reed theories lately, and the intersting thing is that many of them can be simultaneously true.

[wolfmaid7]

Craster's sons = WW is spelled out in the text.

Actually it is a belief by Craster's wives who couldn't possibly know this seeing as none of them are witness. Craster's and his wives practice ritual exposure. He dumps the boys in the woods. What happens after that is

Speculation based on the words of one of the wives.

[Mithras]

Actually it is a belief by Craster's wives who couldn't possibly know this seeing as none of them are witness. Craster's and his wives practice ritual exposure. He dumps the boys in the woods. What happens after that is

Speculation based on the words of one of the wives.

That could be a lie by Craster to keep his wives satisfied. They might be more willing to obey Craster if they hear that their sons were joining the gods, instead of the harsh truth which might br that the boys were being butchered violently. The wives could have torn apart Craster in a full scale uprising.

[BastardlyRock]

To be fair, it's spelt out that Craster's wives believe it, not that it's true.

I guess we're not going with show canon "spoilers" here...