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Assuming that Dany lands in The Vale...


Lord Rhaegel Tarly

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FE- Tyrion should think of LF as an enemy, but he doesn't, really. If he's on his list, he ranks way down there, beneath other people in the Vale, whom he has mused about vindictively in a way that never seems to come to mind re: LF. Unless you're thinking the benefits of time or some angle on Sansa or w/e, it doesn't seem strong enough to build that on. For better or for worse, he mainly thinks of LF as we did before Ned; creepy, untrustworthy, clever background.

Tyrion does think of him as an enemy, but didn't dare touch him while they were both in King's Landing because he understood that the royal economy was highly Littlefinger-centric. It's all in Chapter 63 of ACOK:

“That’s a handsome knife as well.”

“Is it?” There was mischief in Littlefinger’s eyes. He drew the knife and glanced at it casually, as if he had never seen it before. “Valyrian steel, and a dragonbone hilt. A trifle plain, though. It’s yours, if you would like it.”

“Mine?” Tyrion gave him a long look. “No. I think not. Never mine.”He knows, the insolent wretch. He knows and he knows that I know, and he thinks that I cannot touch him.

If ever truly a man had armored himself in gold, it was Petyr Baelish, not Jaime Lannister. Jaime’s famous armor was but gilded steel, but Littlefinger, ah . . . Tyrion had learned a few things about sweet Petyr, to his growing disquiet.

* * *

Oh, he was clever. He did not simply collect the gold and lock it in a treasure vault, no. He paid the king’s debts in promises, and put the king’s gold to work. He bought wagons, shops, ships, houses. He bought grain when it was plentiful and sold bread when it was scarce. He bought wool from the north and linen from the south and lace from Lys, stored it, moved it, dyed it, sold it. The golden dragons bred and multiplied, and Littlefinger lent them out and brought them home with hatchlings.

And in the process, he moved his own men into place. The Keepers of the Keys were his, all four. The King’s Counter and the King’s Scales were men he’d named. The officers in charge of all three mints. Harbormasters, tax farmers, customs sergeants, wool factors, toll collectors, pursers, wine factors; nine of every ten belonged to Littlefinger. They were men of middling birth, by and large; merchants’ sons, lesser lordlings, sometimes even foreigners, but judging from their results, far more able than their highborn predecessors.

* * *

But do I dare touch him? Tyrion wondered. Even if he is a traitor? He was not at all certain he could, least of all now, while the war raged. Given time, he could replace Littlefinger’s men with his own in key positions, but . . .

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FE- Tyrion should think of LF as an enemy, but he doesn't, really. If he's on his list, he ranks way down there, beneath other people in the Vale, whom he has mused about vindictively in a way that never seems to come to mind re: LF. Unless you're thinking the benefits of time or some angle on Sansa or w/e, it doesn't seem strong enough to build that on. For better or for worse, he mainly thinks of LF as we did before Ned; creepy, untrustworthy, clever background.

He doesn't trust LF, and knows LF set him up with the dagger. He wants to pay his debt to the Vale.

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Edit: iow, there are no hard and fast rules about this stuff. Acceptable or not is only true in relation to the existing alternatives. Meaning, if enough Lords are pissed off at the status quo, other than is attractive, even without living breathing WMDs.

Yeah, exactly. And there is plenty of reason to think the Vale lords are not probably very happy. All Dany needs to do is not talk and act like an idiot and she has a good chance of getting their support. If she screws that up, then truly, she has no business ruling Westeros.

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hodor's Dragon-

Yeah, see that's more along the lines I was thinking, though I appreciate the quotes. He has the avAilable info, but it goes nowhere. Even there it's 'even if he is a traitor?' and 'but'...

Contrast that with Pycelle, or Cersei or Joff or any of a number of equally/more powerful enemies about whom we hear Tyrion think mad rages. The noticeable noise about LF in Tyrion's head is the dog barking in the night; it's weird because it wasn't.

This new iOS is killing me.

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I think the Unsullied would fit in just fine in Westeros, because they possess the essential skill of keeping quiet and not speaking until they're spoken to (i.e., discipline). But I'm with you when it comes to the idea that she is going to show up with a horde of Dothraki and 1000 longboats full of ironborn: they would surely cause more problems than they solve.

But if she manages to get all the Unsullied and all 3 dragons across, that will be quite a formidable force, more than enough to grab a few castles and some defensible lands and then raise her banners, call for allies and dare any enemy to come after her. If she can also somehow get important truces and/or alliances, she can do a lot more than hole up in a defensive position, but her current force can hold pretty much any good terrain against almost anything that is currently available to come after her.

The only way I could easily see to couple that with a solution to Slaver's Bay/Essos would be if she actually does snag a Dothraki horde and perhaps some ironborn. She could leave them behind under a capable ruler, and she will have one: Tyrion. Watching Tyrion use his golden tongue to manipulate and win over the Dothraki - who would naturally despise him, I mean can you really doubt the fate of dwarven infants in a dothraki horde? - should be a treat.

I'd hate to miss out on Tyrion claiming Casterly Rock and going naah, naah, naah right smack dab in Cersei's face, but he is only one I see who can get the job done without Dany's presence.

What's in it for Tyrion in this arrangement, however? Unless his character pulls a complete 180, he won't be moved by much but his selfish desire, and his desire is very clear: Casterly Rock. Sitting in Slaver's Bay fixing Dany's mess while she gets to go conquering Westeros will not be a deal he agrees to. And I do not see him being swayed by a ''oh, I'll give you the Rock once I'm done with the little task of subduing an entire friggin continent'' promise either.

Plus, call me biased or whatever, but I'm not keen on the idea that Dany gets to have her cake (establish a durable anti-slavery state in Essos) and eat it too (take the IT). Especially when a big theme of her story in ADWD is that ruling is not easy. But then she should be able to achieve everything she wants without compromising much? Not a lot of thematic consistency here.

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What's in it for Tyrion in this arrangement, however? Unless his character pulls a complete 180, he won't be moved by much but his selfish desire, and his desire is very clear: Casterly Rock. Sitting in Slaver's Bay fixing Dany's mess while she gets to go conquering Westeros will not be a deal he agrees to. And I do not see him being swayed by a ''oh, I'll give you the Rock once I'm done with the little task of subding an entire friggin continent'' promise either.

Plus, call me biased or whatever, but I'm not keen on the idea that Dany gets to have her cake (establish a durable anti-slavery state in Essos) and eat it too (take the IT). Especially when a big theme of her story in ADWD is that ruling is not easy. But then she should be able to achieve everything she wants without compromising much? Not a lot of thematic consistency here.

Emperor of Essos, or however much of it he can conquer? Compared to some infinitely iffy proposition of going after Casterly Rock on his lonesome? I mean, I haven't seen Tyrion moving heaven and earth to take Casterly Rock lately. It's in the back of his mind, sure, but in the meanwhile he'll roll with tits and wine if he has to.

Being left behind with a huge khalasar and 1000 longboats (that's best case, but even if it's not quite that) ain't a bad gig for a guy whose last resume item is "Enslaved In Plague Camp." And while you might say he wouldn't be attracted by "Handle this little deal for me, and Casterly Rock is yours, bro," well, what's his alternative? Does he think Jaime is gonna pop by Meereen and drop off the key?

I wouldn't say it's going to happen, but I would say it could happen, and it could solve all Dany's problems. As for thematic consistency, I just don't see that as much of a concern. If Dany has to make some huge sacrifice for consistency's sake, well first I don't really see why she has to, but even if she does that can still happen alongside of this. I've got a pretty good feeling she ain't gonna be hurting for sacrifice opportunities.

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From storywise perspective, Vale armies have to be involved in the Second Dance just like the Dornish spears (or the Manderly fleet). That is what they were saved/built for.



LF was basing his power in the Vale on the IT (Lannister/Tyrell alliance). He threatened the Vale Lords with his friends in the KL. Now that those friends are fighting each other and are not likely to give figs to what is happening in the Vale, LF is screwed. But still, the Vale Lords need an excuse to get rid of LF and yet a bigger excuse to defy the IT and declare for Dany or Stannis. After all, SR is a boy lord and his regent gets all the power but even the regent needs to take the approval of all the Vale Lords in defying the IT.



Therefore, the Vale seems to be stucked in the current position but it needs to move. Sansa slaying LF will provide the necessary kick and the required power vacuum to move the story forward in the Vale.


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Emperor of Essos, or however much of it he can conquer? Compared to some infinitely iffy proposition of going after Casterly Rock on his lonesome? I mean, I haven't seen Tyrion moving heaven and earth to take Casterly Rock lately. It's in the back of his mind, sure, but in the meanwhile he'll roll with tits and wine if he has to.

Being left behind with a huge khalasar and 1000 longboats (that's best case, but even if it's not quite that) ain't a bad gig for a guy whose last resume item is "Enslaved In Plague Camp." And while you might say he wouldn't be attracted by "Handle this little deal for me, and Casterly Rock is yours, bro," well, what's his alternative? Does he think Jaime is gonna pop by Meereen and drop off the key?

I wouldn't say it's going to happen, but I would say it could happen, and it could solve all Dany's problems. As for thematic consistency, I just don't see that as much of a concern. If Dany has to make some huge sacrifice for consistency's sake, well first I don't really see why she has to, but even if she does that can still happen alongside of this. I've got a pretty good feeling she ain't gonna be hurting for sacrifice opportunities.

Why would Tyrion care about Essos in the first place? Or choose to Become Emperor of Essos while still maintaining Dany's policies, for that matter? It's not like she will be able to police him much, keeping Westeros under control will have her hands full for an entire lifetime if she even manages it. This all fits a bit too well.

Besides, GRRM said they would only meet for a short time. I doubt it's enough to forge a grand alliance like that.

And while I don't mean she should have more horrible things happen to her all the time, I'm really not behind the whole idea of Dany having a Dothraki army and an Ironborn fleet dumped into her lap so that she can free herself of ADWD's driving dilemnas in her storyline. Unfortunately it seems the story is heading this way, but given that this is GRRM I'm pretty much certain he will throw a wrench in there somewhere, so I'm not too worried. Bottom line is, to me, Dany getting her big army and going from victory to victory would be boring as fuck to read. Especially when Martin spent the whole series bashing in our heards that good guys don't win just because they're good guys.

As for the OP, landing in the Vale wouldn't be a great idea. It's got the most intact army and its loyalty is far from certain. At least Dany should send diplomats beforehand to avoid incidents, but then the element of surprise is not on her side anymore.

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Why would Tyrion care about Essos in the first place? Or choose to Become Emperor of Essos while still maintaining Dany's policies, for that matter? It's not like she will be able to police him much, keeping Westeros under control will have her hands full for an entire lifetime if she even manages it. This all fits a bit too well.

Besides, GRRM said they would only meet for a short time. I doubt it's enough to forge a grand alliance like that.

And while I don't mean she should have more horrible things happen to her all the time, I'm really not behind the whole idea of Dany having a Dothraki army and an Ironborn fleet dumped into her lap so that she can free herself of ADWD's driving dilemnas in her storyline. Unfortunately it seems the story is heading this way, but given that this is GRRM I'm pretty much certain he will throw a wrench in there somewhere, so I'm not too worried. Bottom line is, to me, Dany getting her big army and going from victory to victory would be boring as fuck to read. Especially when Martin spent the whole series bashing in our heards that good guys don't win just because they're good guys.

As for the OP, landing in the Vale wouldn't be a great idea. It's got the most intact army and its loyalty is far from certain. At least Dany should send diplomats beforehand to avoid incidents, but then the element of surprise is not on her side anymore.

To reiterate, I'm not saying this is going to happen. For starters, it assumes that all sorts of military assets promptly fall into Dany's hands, and while it's obviously possible that could happen, I'm not really feeling it going that way. But it might, and if it does this scenario is possible.

As for Tyrion's incentive, the obvious question that you didn't answer is his alternative. I think the idea that Tyrion would turn down a major command under Daenerys to be on the ludicrous side. Repeat: he was just a slave in a plague camp. This is a promotion.

Maybe an even better reason, if there could be one: Tyrion has wanted somebody to trust him his own life. If Daenerys trusts him that much and gives him something that important to do, there is just no way he is going to turn that down to go chase death and live beyond the law in Westeros.

Assuming he could get to Westeros, which is step one, and a looooong step for a penniless and heavily indebted dwarf with a huge price on his head. Which brings up another point: Tyrion kind of needs a pardon from somebody if he is ever going to return home. Somebody like Daenerys.

No, Tyrion wouldn't turn it down.

And, respectfully, I don't think you're very convincing when you say that George is going to write a bad story if it goes in a certain way. My own humble opinion is that, whatever way Martin goes, it's not going to be boring. It's going to be planned out and written in some way that neither you nor I have conceived, and it is going to be good.

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I think Tyrion will be problem in Vale for Dany. Valemen think that Lannisters killed Jon Arryn, Tyrion armed Mountain clans and he is seen as kingslayer and kinslayer = very bad PR if he is main advisor of Dany. Plus Dany probably bring Dothraki(slavers) and Unsullied(former slaves).


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From storywise perspective, Vale armies have to be involved in the Second Dance just like the Dornish spears (or the Manderly fleet). That is what they were saved/built for.

LF was basing his power in the Vale on the IT (Lannister/Tyrell alliance). He threatened the Vale Lords with his friends in the KL. Now that those friends are fighting each other and are not likely to give figs to what is happening in the Vale, LF is screwed. But still, the Vale Lords need an excuse to get rid of LF and yet a bigger excuse to defy the IT and declare for Dany or Stannis. After all, SR is a boy lord and his regent gets all the power but even the regent needs to take the approval of all the Vale Lords in defying the IT.

Therefore, the Vale seems to be stucked in the current position but it needs to move. Sansa slaying LF will provide the necessary kick and the required power vacuum to move the story forward in the Vale.

LF already mentioned to Sansa that he expected for Cersei to fall and that there will be a conflict between three queens. LF threatening the Vale lords with his friends in King's Landing is like Roose having his alliance with the Lannisters. Neither of them expect the capital to do anything, they are just using the illusion that their alliances matter.

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LF already mentioned to Sansa that he expected for Cersei to fall and that there will be a conflict between three queens. LF threatening the Vale lords with his friends in King's Landing is like Roose having his alliance with the Lannisters. Neither of them expect the capital to do anything, they are just using the illusion that their alliances matter.

I think that illusion shattered much sooner than LF anticipated, before he was able to consolidate his power in the Vale. He was hoping to do that within a year. He cannot subdue the defiant Vale Lords and their armies with a broken illusion now.

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