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Assuming that Dany lands in The Vale...


Lord Rhaegel Tarly

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I have believed, for a while, that the Saltpans would be a good place for Dany to land, if she can get the support of the Vale. It would be smart of her to make some diplomatic overtures to the Vale lords before she lands. Whether she will do that, remains to be seen. The Vale was ground zero for RR after all.









As for the Vale's pristine condition, that makes it a good Dresden location for Danny to demonstrate what she can do by bombing it. Like, what if it's about to side with Aegon and cement his crown and authority, and then Danny lands and tears up the joint and makes Aegon's new alliance worthless because she just stomped it, and then she says to him that he's welcome to keep his engagement to Sansa because the dragonqueen don't want nothin to do wit him. Or what you said. They'd make a good ally too. But it'd be more gut-wrenching if they somehow totally wasted their advantage as the last intact kingdom and allowed themselves to get bloodied stupidly. So I'm thinking that's the way it might go. It'd be nice, though, if they were able to end this conflict just by throwing their support behind someone worthy and it stuck. (That'd leave the problem of Pete being a part of it, though he could perhaps be taken care of separately, more privately.)




And if Dany does this, then no one will object if I start calling her Bomber Harris Dany Stormborn?


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Someone's gotta land in the Vale with a Dragon and wreak havoc, that's for sure. There have just been too many mentions about the Eyrie being impregnable- it's going to get decimated, like Harrenhal all over again. I think it's gonna be Tyrion who lands there though, given his previous grudge with the Vale nobility over his imprisonment and his popularity with the mountain clans. Also his dearest wife will greet him with Littlefinger's head on a spike as a welcome-home present. It will be soooo romantic

I've taken the repeated mention of the Eyrie being impregnable to mean the fall will come from the inside. I've been rereading a lot of Sansa/Alayne in AFFC trying to predict the controversial chapter.

I don't think Dany is coming to Westeros anytime soon. I feel the East to go West bit is Dany going to Old Valyria to find her family history.

Aegon has a better chance of going to the Vale, but he's in Storm's End and if he's to go to the Vale he might as well go to King's Landing.

Braavos is a stone's throw away on the Narrow Sea, Littlefinger has received mysterious interesting news from Braavos, Arya might be looking to get out of Braavos soon.

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I'd really like to see Dany with Sansa and Littlefinger. I hope that happens.

That would be pretty sweet to see how she and Sansa interact with each other. I just wanta see Dany with any of the big characters.

But I'm jazzed that she's gonna meet Tyrion. Those are my two favorite characters, and I am expecting all kinds of fireworks.

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I really do not think Dany will ever make it back to Westerlos. I think she will end up building an empire where she is now like a new empire on the ruins of Valyria or something. Who really cares about her coming back to Westerlos anyways, the books have spread out too much to have a nice tidy plot tie up ending all back in one place.


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There are many reasons...mostly literary...to think the Vale's her natural choice.

The one glaring objection I have is that a lot of people in story have commented on military opportunism, on catching the enemy tired/weakened/worn down. In this respect the Vale would be the absolute worst choice. If you're seeking to take advantage of the current situation, why choose the region (well, with Dorne) about whom that isn't true?

Not talking outside perspective...I'm wondering why Dany/her advisors would deviate from the opportunism theme.

Unless she thinks she can win them over or dragon diplomacy makes for another 'mommy, I want a ride!' scenario.

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Another thing is that a lot of the momentum for the Dany to the Vale stuff was Eyrie parallels/seeming fit,mouth unless she's waiting out winter, Dany's find an empty Eyrie ATM. Unless that's the plan.

And then we can all laugh heartily as her dragon thinks it's a bit nippy, buggers off and leaves her up there.

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What makes you think that? Westeros is a chaotic hellhole, and so far as I can tell from the books - which don't actually have lots of folks commenting on Targaryen rule - the Targaryens are not terribly unpopular and have a fair number of continuing loyalists. And even if she doesn't say it, "bend the knee or burn" will be in the backs of people's minds.

I'd say that any house that isn't strongly bound up to one of the contenders would consider her overtures, especially if she starts making promises, and even more so if she uses a carrot and stick approach.

Depends on who she tags along with. Tyrion will probably be viewed with suspicion by most (kinslayer and kingslayer? yikes), and hated by Westerlanders. Her armies will most likely be composed of Unsullied, Dothraki, Sellswords and/or former slaves, so it would be very easy to use the ''she's an outsider', argument against her, especially if she doesn't have an advisor like Tyrion who knows a bit about Westerosi politics. Bit of a catch-22.

But at the center of my misgivings about her, really, are the lack of political abilities and proactivity she displayed in ADWD. She was fooled by the Harpy, and let's just say the likes of Littlefinger and Varys are in a whole other league. She seemed to have learned lessons from the incident in her last chapter, but the lesson seems to be less ''I need to work on my political acumen'' and more ''torch the bastards''. Which works in the black and white freakshow that is Slaver's Bay, but Westeros is a whole other ballpark in terms of complexity.

Dany needs more lessons before she is ready to cross into Westeros. Assuming she does cross, which is not a given since she still has lots of stuff to do with 2 books left.

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That was the plan, but those tend to get changed around. What with the mountain clans, lords declarant, or wights, I wouldn't be too surprised if they have to go back up there earlier than they'd like. If some dragon-y folk do come to an empty frozen castle, then they can easily take it, snack on its ample grain stores, and use it as a safe base camp while wreaking havoc on the rest of the Vale. Suddenly the knights of the Vale will have to take back their own impregnable castle. It will be a mess.

Which grain stores? They used those up.

And safe base camp? Heating a la dragon or what? They need to breathe a lot of fire for that to work.

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1. Land in a weakened region and gain initial victories and success for lords to gather to your standard.

2. Land in a strong and stable(at least in comparison to the rest of war torn westeros) region and run the risk of being immediately crushed.

I know what I'd pick.

Could be a fortune-favors-the-bold thing. Bigger risk bigger reward, as the more beat-down regions won't have as much support to offer her cuz it's all beat down.

But at the center of my misgivings about her, really, are the lack of political abilities and proactivity she displayed in ADWD.

Well, Tyrion. For instance he might instant-solve the commonly foreseen problem of Daeny showing up with foreign troops and being seen as an outsider. What if he just convinces her to leave Eastern troops in the East for this very reason, because they're not appropriate for winning the acceptance of her new Western buddies / subjects. Her latest epiphany might have been, "Hey, I should do what works!" What if she's come up with a genuine formula for winning the east by truly becoming one with that cruel culture (using cruelty as the common language that'll make her a true "citizen" and "insider", and thus accepted by the natives as part of that land, someone to accept instead of always revolting against)? Wouldn't she then adopt the same stance toward the West and approach them as a true insider? You can't do that with Eastern troops. So she'd leave the easterners to police her new regime in the east, and start fresh in the west. Maybe even showing up alone on their shores. Well, someone on a flying dinosaur can't really be described as being totally alone. But maybe the Vale troops become the main army she uses on Westerosi soil?

I totally agree that she hasn't enough time to tidy up the east and take the west, and I totally still want her to do both. (The obvious way to solve this impasse is with her death being the explanation for how this series can still conclude in only two books. Hoping for something un-obvious!)

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The Wars of the Roses were basically won by an army of foreigners and mercenaries.

Edit: iow, there are no hard and fast rules about this stuff. Acceptable or not is only true in relation to the existing alternatives. Meaning, if enough Lords are pissed off at the status quo, other than is attractive, even without living breathing WMDs.

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Could be if we consider what happened in the Vale during the Conquest




When Visenya landed there and offered the young Arryn King a ride on her dragon, to his mother's horror, who immediately bent the knee




But, I think I like this better:





I think Dany will land on Dragonstone. That would really be a message: The dragons have returned home.



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I think Tyrion will find an ally in Bronze Yohn, the most powerful Arryn bannermen. LF said as long as Yohn stands alone he is not a threat, and I think that observation may possibly point to Bronze Yohn getting some support. The enemy of my enemy is my friend as they say, and Bronze Yohn and Tyrion share a common foe: LF. Tyrion can give Bronze Yohn RObert Arryn to ward, and also offer something the current Lannister-Tyrell regime can't: justice for his son, Robar, who was killed by Loras. Of course, I think Sansa will kill LF by the time Tyrion and Dany arrive at the Eyrie.





I still say she never even makes it to Westeros.




Then what is the point of her arc if it won't impact the storyline in Westeros? Dany has deicded to go to Westeros in her last POV, and Tyrion won't want to stay in Essos.



snip

The Vale also supported Rhaenyra in the first Dance.





Could be if we consider what happened in the Vale during the Conquest




When Visenya landed there and offered the young Arryn King a ride on her dragon, to his mother's horror, who immediately bent the knee




But, I think I like this better:





I think that is the first place she lands, but she will have to land somewhere on the mainland.


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-> snip

Well, Tyrion. For instance he might instant-solve the commonly foreseen problem of Daeny showing up with foreign troops and being seen as an outsider. What if he just convinces her to leave Eastern troops in the East for this very reason, because they're not appropriate for winning the acceptance of her new Western buddies / subjects. Her latest epiphany might have been, "Hey, I should do what works!" What if she's come up with a genuine formula for winning the east by truly becoming one with that cruel culture (using cruelty as the common language that'll make her a true "citizen" and "insider", and thus accepted by the natives as part of that land, someone to accept instead of always revolting against)? Wouldn't she then adopt the same stance toward the West and approach them as a true insider? You can't do that with Eastern troops. So she'd leave the easterners to police her new regime in the east, and start fresh in the west. Maybe even showing up alone on their shores. Well, someone on a flying dinosaur can't really be described as being totally alone. But maybe the Vale troops become the main army she uses on Westerosi soil?

I totally agree that she hasn't enough time to tidy up the east and take the west, and I totally still want her to do both. (The obvious way to solve this impasse is with her death being the explanation for how this series can still conclude in only two books. Hoping for something un-obvious!)

I think the Unsullied would fit in just fine in Westeros, because they possess the essential skill of keeping quiet and not speaking until they're spoken to (i.e., discipline). But I'm with you when it comes to the idea that she is going to show up with a horde of Dothraki and 1000 longboats full of ironborn: they would surely cause more problems than they solve.

But if she manages to get all the Unsullied and all 3 dragons across, that will be quite a formidable force, more than enough to grab a few castles and some defensible lands and then raise her banners, call for allies and dare any enemy to come after her. If she can also somehow get important truces and/or alliances, she can do a lot more than hole up in a defensive position, but her current force can hold pretty much any good terrain against almost anything that is currently available to come after her.

The only way I could easily see to couple that with a solution to Slaver's Bay/Essos would be if she actually does snag a Dothraki horde and perhaps some ironborn. She could leave them behind under a capable ruler, and she will have one: Tyrion. Watching Tyrion use his golden tongue to manipulate and win over the Dothraki - who would naturally despise him, I mean can you really doubt the fate of dwarven infants in a dothraki horde? - should be a treat.

I'd hate to miss out on Tyrion claiming Casterly Rock and going naah, naah, naah right smack dab in Cersei's face, but he is only one I see who can get the job done without Dany's presence.

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FE- Tyrion should think of LF as an enemy, but he doesn't, really. If he's on his list, he ranks way down there, beneath other people in the Vale, whom he has mused about vindictively in a way that never seems to come to mind re: LF. Unless you're thinking the benefits of time or some angle on Sansa or w/e, it doesn't seem strong enough to build that on. For better or for worse, he mainly thinks of LF as we did before Ned; creepy, untrustworthy, clever background.

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