How different would things have gone if the Vale had declared for Robb?

[Poppa Chase]

That's a great scenario, and very well thought out. The only things that I find unaccounted for are the issues of Margaery and Stannis. In the case of Marge, Robb might not prove as easy to break his oaths when he has a clear head. He thought he'd lost his brothers and was coping with grief when he slept with Jeyne. Since Bran and Rickon would be alive and well, Robb might decline to betray his honour. This is the man who executed a Karstark out of duty. So the Tyrells would either stay neutral or else match Margaery with someone else powerful, like Edmure, Or Robert Arryn.

The second unaccounted issue is Stannis. He wouldn't just sit back and do nothing now that he has the Stormlands backing him. But knowing Robb he might speak with Stannis and negotiate terms where they give him the Iron Throne as the surviving Baratheon. Stannis would hopefully realize he needs those men so he pardons them for helping him defeat the pretenders, and then Melisandre has him send a huge host to the Wall instead of just 1500 cavalry.

You're probably right on both accounts, but Mace has made it pretty clear he wants his daughter to be queen, so if Robb refuses them, then he is in trouble.

And stannis took all the way up until the black water to be truly ready, so by my timeline Robb would beat him there with the Tyrell host coming in behind. Stannis would have to get through the Arryn fleet outside of KL. Which may not be too much trouble but it's enough to side track him for a bit.

[aryagonnakill#2]

I've seen a couple of people here suggest that Robb could not have avoided becoming King after the GreatJons speech, but that's simply not true. An intelligent person would have said something along the lines of "Thank you for your kind words my lord, King in The North is a fine thing, and a fine title, but it will win us no allies, and will not help us defend our friends in the Riverlands. No, we must declare for Renly and end this war before more innocent lives are lost. We will declare for Renly, the Lannisters will be killed, when Tywin Lannister has no more power Lord Karstark will be able to avenge his sons and strike off the Kingslayers head, we will get the bones of those who went to Kl, my sisters, and our great sword Ice, we will have our revenge."

[Fisch]

Let's say Lysa slipped and hit her head after she sent that letter to Cat. She wakes up oblivious to everything.

Catelyn shows up with the little Lannister. Lysa instead of acting an irregular bitch, decides to hold on to Tyrion without trial and champions.

Tywin sends his men in the RiverLands. Jaime attacks Ned. Jaime sieges up on riverrun. Robb musters and marches. Makes his deal with Walder. Arrives in time for the whispering wood.

Catelyn and Lysa send the Vale men to fight for Eddard. They rendezvous with Rooses men and bring the hammer down on Tywin. His forces are routed through the RiverLands and back to the rock. Where Tywin and Stafford build up another Army. But now both of his sons are captured. So he waits.

Robb relieves Riverrun and Harrenhall, where he meets up with Roose and Yohn. They leave token forces at RR and HH but their strength head right into KL and puts the siege to it. Using ships from the vale to do so from sea as well. Eddard will have been killed by this point but Sansa is alive. So they try to hold them off by threatening to kill her. Even though Rodrik said he would have to siege WF, even if his daughters life would be lost, but Robb is King.

Meanwhile, Renly and stannis would have had their debates and Renly would meet his same end. Though LF arriving here might not have happened if he would have to travel through occupied wolf territory, so I don't think he would have gotten to them. At this point, the tyrells hate stannis. They don't particularly have a care in the wolf or the lion, so I think they would try and make a marriage pact for Marg with Robb. Everyone of his people who isn't a Frey would tell him to do so, because he would be unstoppable. He doesn't really need the Frey alliance anymore.

So their combined force would have sacked KL meaning Sansas death. And stannis wouldn't have been able to perform his siege, due to overwhelming forces occupying the city.

Balon may have still rebelled but Theon would have never been sent. So WF is never taken, and the redwynes would Bering the naval hammer down upon them.

The end result is the king and his council being killed. The Wolf marries the Flower, and they at this point decide it's necessary to sit the throne and rebuild this war ravaged continent.

Tywin is pardoned, but Jaime is forced to take he black. Cersei is dead. And tyrion is brought to KL to keep the Lannisters from open rebellion.

That's my opinion on the matter. The Vale changes everything.

Interesting scenario. If I can take off from it with some variations...

- Lysa takes a fall and wakes up sane, like you said. When Catelyn brings Tyrion, the sisters send a formal petition to the Iron Throne demanding a trial.

- Word of the petition reaches Robert while Ned is recuperating from Jaime's attack. He actually takes some initiative and sends ravens ordering Tyrion's release and for the Starks and Lannisters to make peace - meaning, a raven to Tywin.

- The raven reaches Tywin, but not until he's already begun harassing the Riverlands, so Ned still sends men after Ser Gregor. But Tyrion is released, and word is sent of this, so Tywin is left with a force under the king's own banner coming for the Mountain and no cause, even by his own logic, to defy them. But there's no time to call off his mad dog, and the Mountain still strikes.

- Ned still finds out the truth, Robert is still killed, Ned still imprisoned, Robb makes his deal and is there for Whispering Wood, like you said. When the Vale's forces join with Bolton and defeat Tywin's army, Tywin gets away, but Kevan is taken and Tyrion re-taken. With those sorts of hostages to trade, Catelyn prevails on Robb to sue for an exchange, and Ned and Sansa are freed. But the Lannisters never properly explain that they don't have Arya until the exchange is made, and it rankles the North that they've gotten two for three.

- By the time the prisoners are exchanged, Stannis has made his claim. With Ned there to confirm the story of incest, and without his death to enrage the North, I don't know that there would have been a push for independence, and so the North, the Riverlands, and the Vale would probably have declared for Stannis. Assuming Renly still falls, and Ned being back in command keeps Edmure from blowing strategy, Tywin's army could be trapped while Stannis takes King's Landing and the Iron Throne.

- Varys is rooted out by Stannis' command; Littlefinger is stripped down based on Ned's testimony. Jaime is sent to the Wall and Cersei is killed. Tywin is called to answer for the crimes of his bannerman the Mountain, and as part of an arrangement to keep Dorne in line, for the slaughter of Aerys' wife and children. I can imagine him ending up with the choice of the Wall or death. I imagine him taking the black, but being sent as far from Jaime on the Wall as possible. Tyrion might just be clever enough to get through all the trials that follow and prove his innocence in attacking Bran; he could well end up Lord of Casterly Rock, though Stannis might name another House Wardens of the West.

- The tricky point is Myrcella and Tommen. Stannis might want them dead, if for no other reason than the laws around incest. Ned would not want any more children killed. If Ned isn't able to sway Stannis, I don't see Ned rebelling, but I could see him taking his host back home and leaving Stannis to finish sorting out the mess in the south himself. Perhaps the Riverlands and the Vale go with Ned, leaving token forces to guard their own lands; perhaps they stay behind to prepare for winter.

- With Ned back in the North, he'd respond to the calls of desperation from the Wall and lead his bannermen to them. That would be the extent of aid given to the Wall from the Seven Kingdoms; Stannis would still be busy cleaning house in the south.

- With Varys gone, all the plans for Aegon and Dany become much more difficult, if not impossible, to pull off.

- Stannis seems a practical man in regard to religion, and if Melissandre stayed away during the taking of King's Landing, I can't imagine he'd be fool enough to let her attempt to wipe out the native religions of Westeros. But if she's determined enough, and if she wins enough lords as converts, there might be a rebellion at some point, and if the Northmen remain tied up at the Wall (and if the Long Night is truly coming, they will be), Stannis will have to face it on his own, in winter.

[The_lost_arryn19]

Being declared the king of the North and the Trident was not folly. The only part that could be "folly" is the trident but the lords of the Trident proclaimed him king and obviously he can't refuse. Refusal could have caused defectors which in turn causes more defectors. Robb's war game strategies were exactly correct excluding some things he couldn't have expected. 1 was placing his foot in the charge of roose Bolton. Now Catelyn tells Robb he chooses well with Bolton instead of the greatjon because he was cold and calculation instead of brave an fearless. Why I think in this case that was a poor decision is because when you're facing such a formidable opponent as tywin lannister and his resources I think I would want a man who is of UNDOUBTED loyalty to be in command of the other half of the northern army on his own. Leaving roose on his own was what allowed him to act as he did. Also I think in this particular case the greatjon was the better choice is because when Robb split his armies Tywin was suprised on the green fork and it was boltons tactics, slow and calculating that allowed tywin to form up and appropriately prosecute his battle tactics. If the greatjon was in commander the attack would've sounded with complete savaregery and suddenly. Now it is true that this really is a coin toss and could've been very bad for the north but no matter what the western casualties would've been too high for Tywin to engage Robb and by time tywin found out he won the green fork he found out his other army and son were shattered and captured. So with the high casualties and also the possible loss of tywin at the green fork and Jamie's capture and loss at riverun would possibly win the war and at the least completely shut down tywins war effort forcing him to retreat home or be trapped and lose any way. But disregarding that the vale lords would have had to completely disobey their liege to fight with Robb. Also I guarentee if the vale entered the war it would have been as a hole and had no defectors like some people think. The duplicitous lyn corbray isn't a lord he's a knight and commands no men but also he just wants to kill ppl and I don't think it matters who to him. Also ppl talk about any vale lords on Tywins pay role but I would say any lord would rather kill a debt than pay it. The only real question is what thy would have done about Robb's anointment. Would they have gone with popular acclaim like lords of the trident did or would they have proclaimed Robert king(very doubtful). I think they would have gone with popular acclaim in this and Robb would have been forced to forge some kind of marriage alliance with the vale.

[Pod The Impaler]

Who knows truly?

I'd assume Tywin Lannister would have changed his battle plans accordingly and perhaps kept Gregor Clegane, Amory Lorch and Vargo Hoat's reavers closer to act as a strong vanguard rather than split as foraging parties. He'd probably have sought a way to keep the Vale out of the game anyway he can, and knowing Tywin he'd use any card he had in his hand - perhaps he would have accelerated Petyr Baelish's ambitions to grasp the Vale from the inside sooner.

This gets asked repeatedly, and I say this:

Robb would win the war and the Lannisters would be crushed. The Lannisters barely survived the war against Robb as it was, thanks to the improbably nasty & immediate bloodshed between Stannis and Renly, and the even more improbable Ironborn invasion of the North. Robb trounced them in every engagement.

Add ~ 10-20000 more men to Robb's forces, and the Lannisters would be roadkill.

Also, the King in the North would be nigh-unassailable if Robb won and the Vale was added to his kingdom. (Considering the Vale's geographic position, it could be either a huge asset or a huge threat.)

[King Jon Targaryen I]

I would say that given the situation I think Robb's mistake was to declare himself the King of the North this was a huge no no. Quite frankly even if I were to use Machiavelli ideas with this has described in the prince ( its basically satire in my view not a manuel he was criticising the ruthless politics of italy I mean in the end what ended up happening oh yeah Charles VIII invaded italy) what robb should have done is what Theon told him take the Twins. That would have been option B, but if Lysa did join forces with the Starks the Lannisters would have been in deep trouble in the show unlike the book's robb had MANY options to help him win, he could have sent his Volantis wife to Braavos and make a deal with the Iron Bank.

Though a lot of it has to do with some poor decisions that were made like trusting Walder Frey, quite frankly if this was Renaissance Italy I would have had his ass poisoned or assassinated. Also in the book the biggest hint was hey Genna Lannister is married to a frey oh snap maybe I should rethink this crap. The Vale would have given Robb enough soldiers that he could have very well conquered the westerlands. I mean Tywin to resort to cut throat tactics in order to win, he did not win in the battlefield or had robb killed in battle like Daemon Blackfyre had in the Battle of Redgrass Field. In short I think Tywin knew Robb was going to beat him but with letting Theon go back to pyke and the Sacking of Winterfell and Balon Greyjoy declaring himself King of the Iron Islands again really messed up Robb.

The Vale joining it is likely they could have taken back Winterfell for Robb and the Freys would dare try the Red Wedding because now Robb had the Vale on his side. If Renly still lived my god well would have been a happy ending at that point would it.

[RainGhost]

Very different. It depends what point they join. If they join right at the start, then they join up with Roose Bolton's host and smash Tywin on the Green Fork, or else Tywin flees and is holed up in Harrenhal. All they have to do is besiege Harrenhal and they'll still have enough men to spare to take KL, which is now defended only by the Gold Cloaks. In this scenario most likely the KitN thing never happens, Robb never goes west and therefore marries his Frey, Renly still dies and Stannis takes the IT.

If the Vale joins at a later point then they still make a huge difference. I can't see who they would swear fealty to though. I find it difficult to believe they'd want to be ruled from Winterfell, does that mean they'd swear fealty to Stannis then? But then why would they choose him? They could perhaps help to broker an alliance between Stannis and Robb but I still can't see Stannis agreeing to northern independence. Either way, the Vale and river lords could hold the riverlands against the Lannister-Tyrell alliance long enough for the northmen to go north and deal with the remaining ironborn and perhaps there meet Stannis and have some twincest discussions, long enough for Cersei to have Margaery imprisoned, for the ironborn to raid the Reach and for Aegon to raise his banners. Basically a stalemate. And probably Walder Frey doesn't have the nerve to carry out the RW with the Vale involved as well.

[In A Coat of Gold]

I believe if the Vale joined the Tyrells would probably stay out of the conflict because they wouldn't want to waste that many men

The Tyrells were already knee deep with Renly. Robb didn't want the IT. They had to choose between Stannis( a guy who hates them) and Joff. Lannister/Tyrell had to happen after Renly's death. It was only a matter of time.

[In A Coat of Gold]

This gets asked repeatedly, and I say this:

Robb would win the war and the Lannisters would be crushed. The Lannisters barely survived the war against Robb as it was, thanks to the improbably nasty & immediate bloodshed between Stannis and Renly, and the even more improbable Ironborn invasion of the North. Robb trounced them in every engagement.

Add ~ 10-20000 more men to Robb's forces, and the Lannisters would be roadkill.

Also, the King in the North would be nigh-unassailable if Robb won and the Vale was added to his kingdom. (Considering the Vale's geographic position, it could be either a huge asset or a huge threat.)

Robb won 2 battles, both sneaky and one of them purely by plot device. His magical wolf finds a narrow path around the Golden Tooth? Really?

Add 10-20k, and the Lannisters still ally with the Tyrells and they still vastly outnumber them with better soldiers, commanders, and gold. They win, again.

[James Steller]

I would say that given the situation I think Robb's mistake was to declare himself the King of the North this was a huge no no. Quite frankly even if I were to use Machiavelli ideas with this has described in the prince ( its basically satire in my view not a manuel he was criticising the ruthless politics of italy I mean in the end what ended up happening oh yeah Charles VIII invaded italy)

It's not just a satire in your view, it genuinely was meant as a satire by Machiavelli. But history forgot that and has portrayed him as a sinister, dark advisor ever since.

[Dimples]

The Tyrells were already knee deep with Renly. Robb didn't want the IT. They had to choose between Stannis( a guy who hates them) and Joff. Lannister/Tyrell had to happen after Renly's death. It was only a matter of time.

...or they could've sat it out. Mace is quite good at that.

Add 10-20k, and the Lannisters still ally with the Tyrells and they still vastly outnumber them with better soldiers, commanders, and gold. They win, again.

Evidence, please?

[blerg]

Robb was winning the war for independence before the Red Wedding. With the Vale in his camp he would have been the most powerful political and military force in westeros. With his enemies out maneuvered and in poor a poor position. He could in fact have gone on the offensive and demanded lands and claims while the Iron throne sued for peace.

[Lee-Sensei]

Being declared the king of the North and the Trident was not folly. The only part that could be "folly" is the trident but the lords of the Trident proclaimed him king and obviously he can't refuse. Refusal could have caused defectors which in turn causes more defectors. Robb's war game strategies were exactly correct excluding some things he couldn't have expected. 1 was placing his foot in the charge of roose Bolton. Now Catelyn tells Robb he chooses well with Bolton instead of the greatjon because he was cold and calculation instead of brave an fearless. Why I think in this case that was a poor decision is because when you're facing such a formidable opponent as tywin lannister and his resources I think I would want a man who is of UNDOUBTED loyalty to be in command of the other half of the northern army on his own. Leaving roose on his own was what allowed him to act as he did. Also I think in this particular case the greatjon was the better choice is because when Robb split his armies Tywin was suprised on the green fork and it was boltons tactics, slow and calculating that allowed tywin to form up and appropriately prosecute his battle tactics. If the greatjon was in commander the attack would've sounded with complete savaregery and suddenly. Now it is true that this really is a coin toss and could've been very bad for the north but no matter what the western casualties would've been too high for Tywin to engage Robb and by time tywin found out he won the green fork he found out his other army and son were shattered and captured. So with the high casualties and also the possible loss of tywin at the green fork and Jamie's capture and loss at riverun would possibly win the war and at the least completely shut down tywins war effort forcing him to retreat home or be trapped and lose any way. But disregarding that the vale lords would have had to completely disobey their liege to fight with Robb. Also I guarentee if the vale entered the war it would have been as a hole and had no defectors like some people think. The duplicitous lyn corbray isn't a lord he's a knight and commands no men but also he just wants to kill ppl and I don't think it matters who to him. Also ppl talk about any vale lords on Tywins pay role but I would say any lord would rather kill a debt than pay it. The only real question is what thy would have done about Robb's anointment. Would they have gone with popular acclaim like lords of the trident did or would they have proclaimed Robert king(very doubtful). I think they would have gone with popular acclaim in this and Robb would have been forced to forge some kind of marriage alliance with the vale.

Popular acclaim? Why would Robb be popular with the Vale Lords for dragging them into his succession war? Why would they pass over their traditional Kings for a Stark?

If Robb had the Vale with him he might have won... or not. Robb was an incompetent politician.

[James Steller]

Robb was winning the war for independence before the Red Wedding. With the Vale in his camp he would have been the most powerful political and military force in westeros. With his enemies out maneuvered and in poor a poor position. He could in fact have gone on the offensive and demanded lands and claims while the Iron throne sued for peace.

As much as I do agree that Robb was a great battle commander, I'd say he began losing the war around the time the Iron Born attacked the North. That's when things began to spiral out of control, and it may not have seemed so at the time, but that's when the path to the Red Wedding began to be paved.

[Lord Damian]

IF the Vale would have declared for Robb, it would have been after his victorys in the whispering woods and then at Riverrun, the capturing of Jaime. If Lysa had not been under Littlefinger's "spell" might have forced Tywin and Tyrion though him, to negotiate an end of the war and let the North go. Whether the Vale joined the new Kingdom would have been interesting but most likely, they would have went independent. The would have won.

[Minsc]

The Tyrells were already knee deep with Renly. Robb didn't want the IT. They had to choose between Stannis( a guy who hates them) and Joff. Lannister/Tyrell had to happen after Renly's death. It was only a matter of time.

Not really, if the Lannisters are that weak they will probably just keep to themselves as it isn't like Stannis could actually harm them even if he takes King's Landing.

[Boarsbane]

Not really, if the Lannisters are that weak they will probably just keep to themselves as it isn't like Stannis could actually harm them even if he takes King's Landing.

They had the Stormlands infantry with their own host and Stannis had some of the Reach lords with him, if he takes the capitol the Tyrells own bannermen might decide they would rather throw in with him and the Stormland's forces almost certainly will. Mace would have to be a bigger idiot than he seems to just sit there and do nothing while Stannis consolidates his power.

[Wmarshal]

They had the Stormlands infantry with their own host and Stannis had some of the Reach lords with him, if he takes the capitol the Tyrells own bannermen might decide they would rather throw in with him and the Stormland's forces almost certainly will. Mace would have to be a bigger idiot than he seems to just sit there and do nothing while Stannis consolidates his power.

A specially with the whole " stannis, the last Baratheon" thing going, with no kings to act as his shield, The Tyrell cause loses all legitimacy and it only a matter of time before the Florents push Stannis to give them the Reach and turn the Reach into a blood bath.

[Minsc]

They had the Stormlands infantry with their own host and Stannis had some of the Reach lords with him, if he takes the capitol the Tyrells own bannermen might decide they would rather throw in with him and the Stormland's forces almost certainly will. Mace would have to be a bigger idiot than he seems to just sit there and do nothing while Stannis consolidates his power.

Even if Stannis takes KL, his power will still be crippled enough that he won't have to worry to much about him. Simply, siding with Tywin when he is completely surrounded by the North, Riverlands, and Vale is just as risky. Especially, as it is likely that Robb would have already attacked and broken Tywin's personal forces if he had the additional boast of the Vale. Meaning if anyone it would be Robb he would reach out to.

Edit: Moreover, all it takes for Mace to be somewhat delayed in his assistance and the Lannisters falter at BW.

[Two and a Halfhand]

You are all implying that if Robb took KL from the Lannisters he would become King,the Northmen never wanted that,and keep in mind that this "King in the North" nonsense is counting on the fact that Ned dies and the whole South besides the Riverlords turn their backs on justice and either stay neutral,declare a king of their own or fight for the lions.With some guidance from the more experienced Valemen would be enough to tell Robb that crowning himself is a bad political movee.I think the additional troops from the Vale would turn the table on the Lannister and guarantee a Baratheon-Stark victory...