"Friends in the Reach"

[Red Tiger]

First, @Gibzit, rule number one of politics is to deceive. And if you believe that Leyton and the Hightowers are doing NOTHING, then indeed, they succeeded. Look at the Martells. Either you think they failed or not, KL is completely unaware of their plans. If they had found out they were trying to get back with a Targaryen pretender, they would be dead by now. Keep your intentions undercover, whether you fail or succeed, is also playing the game. Better let them think you're crazy than dangerous.

This, right here, is why I am SHOCKED that some book readers still take the rumours of Leyton as doing nothing, as fact. They said pretty much the same thing about Wyman Manderly and look what happened.

[Julia Martell]

GRRM has a thing for old guys who people criticize for doing nothing....

[psyqo78]

GRRM has a thing for old guys who people criticize for doing nothing....

Perfect! He has a personally vested interest in this topic.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Another important house would be House Merryweather. Taena and Orton clearly helped to fuck both the Lannisters and the Tyrells in AFfC, and this makes no sense whatsoever if they are not on Varys' payroll. Orton met Taena in Essos during his exile, and either he himself or his father may have served with the Golden Company.

Probably Orton, because his grandfather wasn't exactly a warrior type.

I wonder if Varys influenced/manipulated a connection.

GRRM has a thing for old guys who people criticize for doing nothing....

:lol:

[Red Tiger]

GRRM has a thing for old guys who people criticize for doing nothing....

Fucking brilliant!

[psyqo78]

I'm probably not the first person to think of this scenario, but if Tommen is deemed to be a product of incest by the faith and is attainted, that releases Margaery to marry Aegon, no?

MargaeryTwice widowed, a broken betrothal, and once again on the winning side. Targ loyalists (again) until Dany shows up :)

The Tyrell's sure are masters of preservation aren't they. And it dates back to their bending of the knee to Aegon which allowed Highgarden to remain in tact; prosperous and in turn raised their house of stewards (IIRC) to lords and Wardens. History may in fact be repeated.

[Cubicz]

The Tyrell's sure are masters of preservation aren't they. And it dates back to their bending of the knee to Aegon which allowed Highgarden to remain in tact; prosperous and in turn raised their house of stewards (IIRC) to lords and Wardens. History may in fact be repeated.

:agree:

[Lord Varys]

Orton does not seem to be all that old, at least his son Russell supposedly is about as old as Tommen.

Lord Owen would clearly have been too old upon his exile, but as of yet we don't know what happened to Orton's father. Did he die of a natural death? Or did he die in Essos while fighting for the Golden Company?

We also don't know how it came to be that Robert pardoned the Merryweathers and allowed them to return. It would not surprise me if it turned out that Varys arranged that after the Merryweathers had joined Team Aegon (or, rather, Team Golden Company - I don't think they were told all that much back then).

[Guard of the Rainking]

House Rowan is the most likely.

1. They fought for the Targs during Robert's Rebellion.

2. They have blood ties to House Gardener, so they would be a good choice for the new Great House of the Reach.

3. They don't have marriage ties with House Tyrell.

4. Mathis Rowan is commanding the Siege of Storm's End.

5. They don't hold any seats on the Small Council.

The Tarlys are also a good bet because they have a claim on Brightwater, and Dickon is betrothed to a Mooton who also are/were Targ loyalist.

[Hrafntýr]

I think that how things go with Margaery's trial is likely to help some fence-sitters in the Reach to get off the fence. Which means that manipulation of Marg's trial might be used to help them along, one way or another. Count me among those who believe that Varys' little speech to Kevan about Aegon was directed at the ears of the High Septon, basically suggesting that he might want to consider backing Aegon. Margaery being found guilty by the faith, and the consequent undoing of the Tyrell claim to the IT, might provided added reason for houses sworn to the Tyrell's to abandon them. And Margaery is currently in Randall Tarly's custody: how more dramatic a way for House Tarly to break from House Tyrell than for Randall to hand Marg over for execution?

I suppose it's possible that Aegon might be interested in an alliance with House Tyrell via marriage to Marg, and so might influence (via Varys) the outcome in Marg's favour, though Marg would still be married to Tommen, which would need to be undone. But personally, I think the Tyrells time is drawing to a close. In fact, I think that it's possible that the Tyrell involvement in Joffrey's death might even come out during Marg's trial, but that's merely speculation.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Orton does not seem to be all that old, at least his son Russell supposedly is about as old as Tommen.

Lord Owen would clearly have been too old upon his exile, but as of yet we don't know what happened to Orton's father. Did he die of a natural death? Or did he die in Essos while fighting for the Golden Company?

We also don't know how it came to be that Robert pardoned the Merryweathers and allowed them to return. It would not surprise me if it turned out that Varys arranged that after the Merryweathers had joined Team Aegon (or, rather, Team Golden Company - I don't think they were told all that much back then).

Robert pardoned many people as long as they weren't known strong Targaryen loyalists. House Darry, for instance. Stripped from their lands and power while they weren't the only ones fighting on their side, but I think it had to do with Jonotor being loyal to the Dragons and Willem taking the Queen and children safely away. And the Merryweathers weren't exactly a danger.

House Rowan is the most likely.

5. They don't hold any seats on the Small Council.

Mathis Rowan was made advisor of the small council in Storms. Cersei then sent him away to besiege Storm's End. Whether he's still an advisor or not, it's not very clear (at least not to me). Either way, being sent away like that is something he could have taken exactly as Cersei intentions were: she wanted him away.

[Stannis's Lawyer]

http://www.westeros.org/Citadel/SSM/Month/2002/03/

The Merryweathers lost much of their lands, apparently everything but the castle and the lands directly near it, but unlike Connington they were allowed to remain lords.

Connington is a special case, and you have the essence of it. Details are made clear in FEAST FOR CROWS. When Jon Connington was defeated at the Battle of the Bells, Aerys exiled him and stripped his House of all its lands and wealth. After the Rebellion, Robert restored the castle to a cousin of Lord Jon's... but only the castle, and some small grounds around it. The extensive Connington lands were parceled out to others, and the house's wealth remained in the treasury. Nor was Robert willing to recall Lord Jon from exile, since he had been among Prince Rhaegar's closest friends. Thus the Conningtons were once great lords... but Red Ronnet, their present head, is simply a landed knight, the Knight of Griffin's Roost.Somewhat the same sequence is true of the Merryweathers of Longtable, by the way, though in that case Robert was prevailed upon to restore the lordship as well as the castle. Even so, the present Lord Merryweather is nowise as rich and powerful as his grandfather, the old man who served as Aerys's Hand after Lord Tywin and before Jon Connington.

[Mithras]

There has to be a power vacuum in the Reach in order to leave the scene to fAegon. That is what the narrative demands.

[Guard of the Rainking]

Mathis Rowan was made advisor of the small council in Storms. Cersei then sent him away to besiege Storm's End. Whether he's still an advisor or not, it's not very clear (at least not to me). Either way, being sent away like that is something he could have taken exactly as Cersei intentions were: she wanted him away.

Kevan said that the council was composed of Nym, 3 Lannister loyalists and 3 Tyrell loyalists.

[Lord Varys]

The Merryweathers were in exile, though, when Robert pardoned them. Someone must have spoken to Robert on behalf of House Merryweather, and it could not have been Orton himself, due to his exile.

Robert was a careless guy, he would not have thought about the Merryweathers all by himself. Other former Targaryen loyalists not exile most likely approached him and asked for a pardon, but not Orton.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Kevan said that the council was composed of Nym, 3 Lannister loyalists and 3 Tyrell loyalists.

Yeah, but Mathis wasn't a Master of Whocares, just an advisor, in the same way Nym will be. And he was later sent away.

Also, that was during Tywin's time as Hand and Kevan's regency. Who knows what will happen when/if Cersei gets back to power. She will definitely believe the Tyrells (and their people) are behind the murder of Kevan, and that includes Mathis and Redwyne, who were part of the Council.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

You're right, even with his injury it should be easy as hell. Marry Willas and become part of the Great House of the Reach. You would think the Tyrells would marry him off to one of Randyl's daughters the way they married into Redwyne, Fossoway and HIghtower.

2 problems: 1, he's a cripple and therefore his fertility might be suspect; 2, he's a cripple and therefore unattractive to the bride and an embarrassment to her father. This is a society where cripples and midgets and such are generally left out in the woods to die. There are houses who'd accept the embarrassment if it meant being close to the Tyrells, but they would not be "great houses", and the great ones would take an offer of Willas's hand to be an insult. It's a status thing: Willas would only be acceptable to lower-status houses, but those houses would be unacceptable to Mace.

Edit: TLDR: Willas ain't married for the same reason Tyrion wasn't.

Actually, I think the Tyrells (or at least Lady O) have taken precautions not to be too inextricably linked to them. Yes, right now Marg's crown comes from the Lannisters, but she is still a maiden (or can claim that) because they disposed of Joffrey before consummation. Doing so was brilliant, because it gave them power without a permanent alliance.

Thank you! You've helped make sense of the regicide for me. I always saw the short-term gains to be had, but now I understand that there was a long-term one as well. The Tyrells can hedge their bets in case the Lannister dynasty falls within the next couple of years.

GRRM has a thing for old guys who people criticize for doing nothing....

Zing! lel

...Count me among those who believe that Varys' little speech to Kevan about Aegon was directed at the ears of the High Septon, basically suggesting that he might want to consider backing Aegon.

How would the High Septon hear? Does he have spies too? Little birds = sparrows?

[Guard of the Rainking]

Yeah, but Mathis wasn't a Master of Whocares, just an advisor, in the same way Nym will be. And he was later sent away.

Also, that was during Tywin's time as Hand and Kevan's regency. Who knows what will happen when/if Cersei gets back to power. She will definitely believe the Tyrells (and their people) are behind the murder of Kevan, and that includes Mathis and Redwyne, who were part of the Council.

To me at least it's pretty obvious that Mathis is no longer part of the Council. If Kevan ignored him because he was away why did he mention Paxter Redwyne? If Kevan ignored him because he was only an advisor why did he mention Nym?

[JonCon's Red Beard]

To me at least it's pretty obvious that Mathis is no longer part of the Council. If Kevan ignored him because he was away why did he mention Paxter Redwyne? If Kevan ignored him because he was only an advisor why did he mention Nym?

Yep. That I agree. Also, Jaime and Kevan suggested him as Hand. I suppose that his name was mention by many people as well and now he feels "shunned".

I mean, in politics, when a name is mentioned around to take a place and this doesn't happen, that's something that they won't easily forget.

[Red Tiger]

2 problems: 1, he's a cripple and therefore his fertility might be suspect; 2, he's a cripple and therefore unattractive to the bride and an embarrassment to her father. This is a society where cripples and midgets and such are generally left out in the woods to die. There are houses who'd accept the embarrassment if it meant being close to the Tyrells, but they would not be "great houses", and the great ones would take an offer of Willas's hand to be an insult. It's a status thing: Willas would only be acceptable to lower-status houses, but those houses would be unacceptable to Mace.

Oh come on. I understand not wanting your daughter to marry Tyrion, you might be afraid that the kid will be a dwarf, but crippled or not, Willas is the heir to the heart of the Reach. If a lord marries his daughter off to Willas, hid grandson will be the next ruler of the entire Reach.