Heresy 138 The Kings of Winter

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

...any attempt to say Rhaegar did not have it in his 'character' or that Lyanna was 'waylaid' elsewhere should address these facts

Well, actually - I somewhat disagree with this claim. Those are pieces of evidence used in favor of the Rhaegar-as-father argument. But they are not statements about his character. They are merely assertions of fact - some (not all) directly connected to Rhaegar, but not necessarily explained.

Making an argument for a different character should not necessarily require an argument against Rhaegar. Clearly GRRM has set things up to make Rhaegar an easy answer. I mean... Robert alleges that Rhaegar raped Lyanna "many hundreds of times." So it's not like Martin hasn't put the idea out there. But he's also left this conspicuously blank slate when it comes to detailing what actually happened. So clearly he's reserved space for some entirely different explanation.

He's not providing any solid ways of ruling Rhaegar out. Rhaegar-as-suspect is crucial to the puzzle. The question is: for whom else can we build a positive case for potential Jon-Snow-paternity?

[Arya Havinfun]

Not to drag this any further of topic, but regarding Rhaegar and Lyanna we do know for a fact (don't we?) that:

a) he crowned her queen of beauty for the entire kingdom to see in preference to his own wife

B) that Lyanna was down south at the so-called 'tower of joy' and was being guarded by three whitecloaks

c) Rhaegar had also been south, from whence he returned when the rebellion was not snuffed out

any attempt to say Rhaegar did not have it in his 'character' or that Lyanna was 'waylaid' elsewhere should address these facts

The first choice is true, as it happened in front of a crowd at a public event at Harrenhall.

The second one is iffy at best, as Ned is dreaming while feverish as he lay in pain for 6 days and 7 nights with an infected broken leg. Lyanna may or may not have been present at the same place where the 3 KG fought with Ned&Co. Ned hearing her voice and seeing a blood-streaked sky may have been images/symbols from some other time/place/memory that got collapsed into this dream. Outside of this dream, we have no knowledge about what happened to Lyanna from the time of her disappearance to the time she died, or even if she spent any time with Rhaegar at all after the Harrenhall tourney.

The third is true, I think, but Rhaegar being "south" for a time is hardly a specific location. The 'south' includes all sorts of places that aren't the toj, and there's no mention of who he was staying with at the time. So there isn't really much to "know" with this one.

[Phillip Frye]

Speaking of Petyr's possible involvement with the Lyanna Rhaegar fiasco, someone or something sure convinced Brandon that Rhaegar was responsible for his sister's disappearance.

The problem is: why would Brandon Stark believe anything that Littlefinger told him? Unless, someone trusted by both (and easily manipulated) passed along a message.

[Phillip Frye]

I also agree with those above that Littlefinger did not abduct Lyanna Stark, unless he had Lysa Tully do it for him. He was banished to the Fingers at that point in time, recovering from an abdominal wound.

[alienarea]

I fail to understand the need to speculate about Jon Snow's father again and again. We are five books into the series and in every one of the books he is the bastard son of Ned Stark.

:dunno:

[Black Crow]

I fail to understand the need to speculate about Jon Snow's father again and again. We are five books into the series and in every one of the books he is the bastard son of Ned Stark.

:dunno:

Perfectly true and Tyrion's injunction to embrace his bastardy and armour himself in it is significant. Jon will always be a bastard in his own eyes; what he wants to know is who his mother was. That's not to say it won't turn out he will learn his biological father was Rhaegar the Fruitcake, but he is [as Maester Aemon reminds him] and always will be a son of Winterfell.

[Black Crow]

Not to drag this any further of topic, but regarding Rhaegar and Lyanna we do know for a fact (don't we?) that:

a) he crowned her queen of beauty for the entire kingdom to see in preference to his own wife

B) that Lyanna was down south at the so-called 'tower of joy' and was being guarded by three whitecloaks

c) Rhaegar had also been south, from whence he returned when the rebellion was not snuffed out

any attempt to say Rhaegar did not have it in his 'character' or that Lyanna was 'waylaid' elsewhere should address these facts

Here's one I prepared earlier:

In AGoT chapter 39, Ned has his infamous dream about the fight there as quoted many a time. He's woken from it by Vayon Poole and becomes involved in various bits of business, and on learning that Alyn, the new captain of his guard, has given the body of Jory Cassel into the keeping of the silent sisters to be taken home to Winterfell to lie beside his grandfather, he reflects:

It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed.

This, incidentally, is the only use of the term tower of joy [no initial capitals] anywhere in the books, and at this point we need to qualify the dream and its aftermath with this comment by GRRM:

http://www.westeros....he_Tower_of_Joy

You'll need to wait for future books to find out more about the Tower of Joy and what happened there, I fear.

I might mention, though, that Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream... and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal.

So there’s something wrong with the dream passage, but what? To a large extent the encounter itself is confirmed by the passage about Ned’s thoughts on waking. He’s not dreaming, feverishly or otherwise, when he thinks of Martyn Cassel and the aftermath of the fight, so it obviously happened and it ended with all of them dead except Messrs Stark and Reed. Nor do I think there’s a problem with the exchange between Ned and the Kingsguard that preceded the fight. It’s too clear, too precise, not to be a memory of an actual conversation, or at least an accurate memory of the gist of what was said. Nor can Ned seeing his dead friends as wraiths be regarded as significant enough to justify GRRM’s warning. That then leaves Lyanna.

Is GRRM therefore hinting that in his “fever dream” Ned is conflating two related but different memories; that of the fight and that of Lyanna’s death afterwards, not in an old watchtower in the Prince’s Pass, but somewhere else entirely and not improbably Starfall?

Hold that thought and consider, because transferring Lyanna to Starfall actually resolves a lot of practical problems. After the fight at the tower, Ned and Howland bury their dead and then do carry on to Starfall, ostensibly to return Ser Arthur Dayne’s sword:

So suppose there they are told that Lyanna is dying. Ned goes to her alone and sits with her long after she has died. Eventually Howland and some of the others intrude upon his grief and take him away so that the body can be washed and prepared for the long journey home.

It’s not only an interpretation that makes sense, but one which makes a lot more sense than star-crossed lovers spending all that time at the tower. In the first place the tower in question wasn't a remote hideaway by any stretch of the imagination, but a watchtower sitting on a ridge overlooking one of only two roads into Dorne. It was not after all a castle, or even a holdfast, but a simple watchtower which in these here parts rarely amounts to more than one bare room at the bottom, another reached by a ladder above and then a walkway above that to do the watching. All in all; very small, very squalid and very Spartan. There is no way it could have been used as a hideout for a prince, and a young [and latterly pregnant] girl attended by two and eventually three members of the famous kingsguard, bickering over whose turn it was to fetch the bread, milk and morning papers over a period of several months.

Re-locating Lyanna to Starfall on the other hand gives us an explanation for Ned and Howland travelling there after burying the dead. It explains the presence of “others” when Lyanna dies and afterwards shipping both straight home from Starfall similarly makes a lot more sense than making a detour to Starfall from the Dornish Marches with a corpse and a suckling babe. After all, are we really expected to believe that having found a dying Lyanna and a new-born babe in an old tower at the northern end of the pass, Ned then took them both all the way round by Starfall to tip the chivalrous bit and return Arthur's sword? A splendid thing to do in years after, with lots of precedent, but at that point in time he surely had far more pressing things to worry about; which suggests there was a far more important reason for going there.

All very well says you, but what about the Kingsguard and why the tower?

Again it’s worth turning back to GRRM, specifically answering that question:

http://web.archive.o...s3/00103009.htm

Martin: The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that.

Again hold this for a moment, because there’s a clear implication here that the reason they were so far from home in the first place is that they were obeying an order given by Prince Rhaegar. Exactly what that order was we don’t know but it is apparent from the exchange with Ned it was an order they didn’t like. It’s also important at this point to consider the timing of that order.

Rhaegar has been absent for months, but at some point Hightower catches up with him bearing Aerys’ summons to return. Rhaegar then does so, not improbably leading those 10,000 Dornishmen, later commanded at the Trident by Lewyn Martell. However before returning he in turn orders Hightower, Dayne and Whent to remain behind. I’ll discuss a possible reason for this shortly, but at this particular moment when Rhaegar returns to Kings Landing, Aerys is the King, Rhaegar is the Crown Prince, and Rhaegar’s own son and heir, Aegon is still living. Jon is still just a bump, so with war raging up north, leaving three out of the seven members of the guard to protect an unborn child who at best will be third in line after Aerys seems a touch odd.

So let’s look at what happens:

"I looked for you on the Trident," Ned said to them.

"We were not there," Ser Gerold answered.

"Woe to the Usurper if we had been," said Ser Oswell

The use of the term Usurper is interesting. Robert is no longer a rebel, he has usurped the throne, they acknowledge that he is now the King, they just refuse to recognise him.

"When King's Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were."

"Far away," Ser Gerold said, "or Aerys would yet sit on the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells."

Here Aerys is their king and still would be if they had anything to do with it.

"I came down on Storm's End to lift the siege," Ned told them, "and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them."

"Our knees do not bend easily," said Ser Arthur Dayne.

Now again this one is consistent with the bit about the usurper. Tyrell, Redwyne and the others did bend the knee, because their king and his heirs and successors were gone and there was no point in fighting on in the name of that boy fled to Dragonstone. On the other hand Messrs Hightower, Dayne and Whent decline to do so because their pride and their honour do not allow it. That's straightforward, but if the infant Jon Snow was their king, whom they were protecting, there would be no question of them bending the knee to anybody but him in the first place

If we separate Lyanna from the tower, there is nothing in the exchange with the Kingsguard to suggest that they are guarding anybody; whether Lyanna Stark, Jon Snow or even, the gods help us, Aegon Targaryen.

Conversely if we read everything as an encounter on the road - the only road - between the three knights heading north from Starfall and Ned Stark heading south to Starfall, the language makes sense, Ned's recollection of burying them [when he's awake] makes sense, his journey to Starfall afterwards makes sense, his recollection of the dying Lya, not at a lonely watchtower but in Starfall makes sense, and so too his learning there that Rhaegar called the place where they all died the tower of joy.

So why are they at the tower?

The obvious answer is that it’s a landmark and human nature being what it is their eyes will be drawn to it – as will Ned’s.

As to why they are going to fight, whatever the reason for his absence, Rhaegar was gone from Kings Landing for some time. Given the way things went when he re-appeared I think it’s reasonable that he came north with those 10,000 Dornishmen and that learning of them Aerys despatched Martell to command them. Whether Martell and Rhaegar met on the road, or passed each other en route probably doesn't much matter, but what does is that remark about Rhaegar recognising "in the end" that Aerys was mad.

There has been a lot of serious discussion about Rhaegar’s possible involvement in a coup to overthrow Aerys and the Harrenhal tourney being a cover for a gathering of conspirators or would-be conspirators. However the three guards in the Pass, and certainly not Hightower, were not party to the possible coup. Their loyalty to Aerys is unambiguously expressed. Whether Rhaegar ordered them to remain behind for that very reason, perhaps only using Lyanna and her bump as a pretext, we don't know but it’s a very strong possibility given that the exchange with Ned affirms their loyalty to Aerys but mentions no other king.

Therefore if we look at the exchange between Ned and the three knights without preconceptions it all makes sense. In the first place the knights are not defending or protecting anything, the three of them have lined up to fight.

It is more like the OK corral than the defence of Kings Landing.

We're actually given some very strong clues as to this. They speak of their king, Aerys, who they failed by being far away. They refer to Bob as the Usurper, because he has usurped the throne. He is the King now. Then both Viserys and Danaerys refer to Ned as the usurper's dog. He is recognised as Bob's right-hand man and just as responsible for everything that has happened.

The knights also speak of Jaime Lanister with some understandable venom and how he should burn in seven hells

And then there's the final exchange: "And now it begins..." to which Ned replies no, "Now it ends..."

That bit tends to get passed over in discussion but it’s of a piece with the rest. The three knights have failed in their duty and their king is dead. They are now Ronin and all that remains is their honour. That not only means that they will not kneel, but they will die avenging him. This is the vow they have sworn. "It begins" with killing the Usurper's Dog and if they're not stopped the forsworn Jaime Lanister and the Usurper himself are next on the list. But to Ned "Now it ends", because the war is over and too many have already died. And so they fight, and so the three Ronin die.

[Black Crow]

As to the "Winged wolf" identity you and i talked about that before and i do think that Jojen -mother bless his heart- did a Mel and got it wrong.Based on BR's own info it was supposed to be Rickon and Jon and he purposefully took Bran because he was NOT who was chosen.By destiny's design Rickon would be less a tool.Bran's association with Summer has me a bit weary. I do believe in the Oak and Holly King motif but i must admit my hesitation in Bran being who was chosen by "magic" to be the Oak king.So that being said it is the single connecton that makes me believe BR might be using Bran to bring about something else.

I remain unconvinced by the argument that Bran is the wrong one, although there may well be an element of ambiguity in the winged wolf business just as there is between Azor Ahai and the Prince that was promised.

So far as Kurtz goes however there is no such ambiguity. Bran is the Summer child and he was told that he must live because Winter is coming.

This is not because he must fight Winter at all, but rather that in order to maintain the Oak King/Holly King balance, as the Summer child it is time for him be put into the earth [ie; the cave] not to die but to wait through the Winter until the Spring when he will return life to the land.

[Arya Havinfun]

The problem is: why would Brandon Stark believe anything that Littlefinger told him? Unless, someone trusted by both (and easily manipulated) passed along a message.

Precisely. LF works through intermediaries all the time, and those intermediaries are often quite unaware they are even being used. Clean hands, all the way.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

I remain unconvinced by the argument that Bran is the wrong one, although there may well be an element of ambiguity in the winged wolf business just as there is between Azor Ahai and the Prince that was promised.

So far as Kurtz goes however there is no such ambiguity. Bran is the Summer child and he was told that he must live because Winter is coming.

This is not because he must fight Winter at all, but rather that in order to maintain the Oak King/Holly King balance, as the Summer child it is time for him be put into the earth [ie; the cave] not to die but to wait through the Winter until the Spring when he will return life to the land.

And in that case, I like the notion that Monster (Gilly's boy) represents the changeling/Winter's child. After all, that was the exchange made through the Black Gate. Tossing that child onto the fire might give Mel a bit of a surprise...

[alienarea]

Here's one I prepared earlier:

In AGoT chapter 39, Ned has his infamous dream about the fight there as quoted many a time. He's woken from it by Vayon Poole and becomes involved in various bits of business, and on learning that Alyn, the new captain of his guard, has given the body of Jory Cassel into the keeping of the silent sisters to be taken home to Winterfell to lie beside his grandfather, he reflects:

It would have to be his grandfather, for Jory's father was buried far to the south. Martyn Cassel had perished with the rest. Ned had pulled the tower down afterward, and used its bloody stones to build eight cairns upon the ridge. It was said that Rhaegar had named that place the tower of joy, but for Ned it was a bitter memory. They had been seven against three, yet only two lived to ride away; Eddard Stark himself and the little crannogman, Howland Reed.

This, incidentally, is the only use of the term tower of joy [no initial capitals] anywhere in the books, and at this point we need to qualify the dream and its aftermath with this comment by GRRM:

http://www.westeros....he_Tower_of_Joy

You'll need to wait for future books to find out more about the Tower of Joy and what happened there, I fear.

I might mention, though, that Ned's account, which you refer to, was in the context of a dream... and a fever dream at that. Our dreams are not always literal.

So there’s something wrong with the dream passage, but what? To a large extent the encounter itself is confirmed by the passage about Ned’s thoughts on waking. He’s not dreaming, feverishly or otherwise, when he thinks of Martyn Cassel and the aftermath of the fight, so it obviously happened and it ended with all of them dead except Messrs Stark and Reed. Nor do I think there’s a problem with the exchange between Ned and the Kingsguard that preceded the fight. It’s too clear, too precise, not to be a memory of an actual conversation, or at least an accurate memory of the gist of what was said. Nor can Ned seeing his dead friends as wraiths be regarded as significant enough to justify GRRM’s warning. That then leaves Lyanna.

Is GRRM therefore hinting that in his “fever dream” Ned is conflating two related but different memories; that of the fight and that of Lyanna’s death afterwards, not in an old watchtower in the Prince’s Pass, but somewhere else entirely and not improbably Starfall?

Hold that thought and consider, because transferring Lyanna to Starfall actually resolves a lot of practical problems. After the fight at the tower, Ned and Howland bury their dead and then do carry on to Starfall, ostensibly to return Ser Arthur Dayne’s sword:

So suppose there they are told that Lyanna is dying. Ned goes to her alone and sits with her long after she has died. Eventually Howland and some of the others intrude upon his grief and take him away so that the body can be washed and prepared for the long journey home.

It’s not only an interpretation that makes sense, but one which makes a lot more sense than star-crossed lovers spending all that time at the tower. In the first place the tower in question wasn't a remote hideaway by any stretch of the imagination, but a watchtower sitting on a ridge overlooking one of only two roads into Dorne. It was not after all a castle, or even a holdfast, but a simple watchtower which in these here parts rarely amounts to more than one bare room at the bottom, another reached by a ladder above and then a walkway above that to do the watching. All in all; very small, very squalid and very Spartan. There is no way it could have been used as a hideout for a prince, and a young [and latterly pregnant] girl attended by two and eventually three members of the famous kingsguard, bickering over whose turn it was to fetch the bread, milk and morning papers over a period of several months.

Re-locating Lyanna to Starfall on the other hand gives us an explanation for Ned and Howland travelling there after burying the dead. It explains the presence of “others” when Lyanna dies and afterwards shipping both straight home from Starfall similarly makes a lot more sense than making a detour to Starfall from the Dornish Marches with a corpse and a suckling babe. After all, are we really expected to believe that having found a dying Lyanna and a new-born babe in an old tower at the northern end of the pass, Ned then took them both all the way round by Starfall to tip the chivalrous bit and return Arthur's sword? A splendid thing to do in years after, with lots of precedent, but at that point in time he surely had far more pressing things to worry about; which suggests there was a far more important reason for going there.

All very well says you, but what about the Kingsguard and why the tower?

Again it’s worth turning back to GRRM, specifically answering that question:

http://web.archive.o...s3/00103009.htm

Martin: The King's Guards don't get to make up their own orders. They serve the king, they protect the king and the royal family, but they're also bound to obey their orders, and if Prince Rhaegar gave them a certain order, they would do that.

Again hold this for a moment, because there’s a clear implication here that the reason they were so far from home in the first place is that they were obeying an order given by Prince Rhaegar. Exactly what that order was we don’t know but it is apparent from the exchange with Ned it was an order they didn’t like. It’s also important at this point to consider the timing of that order.

Rhaegar has been absent for months, but at some point Hightower catches up with him bearing Aerys’ summons to return. Rhaegar then does so, not improbably leading those 10,000 Dornishmen, later commanded at the Trident by Lewyn Martell. However before returning he in turn orders Hightower, Dayne and Whent to remain behind. I’ll discuss a possible reason for this shortly, but at this particular moment when Rhaegar returns to Kings Landing, Aerys is the King, Rhaegar is the Crown Prince, and Rhaegar’s own son and heir, Aegon is still living. Jon is still just a bump, so with war raging up north, leaving three out of the seven members of the guard to protect an unborn child who at best will be third in line after Aerys seems a touch odd.

So let’s look at what happens:

"I looked for you on the Trident," Ned said to them.

"We were not there," Ser Gerold answered.

"Woe to the Usurper if we had been," said Ser Oswell

The use of the term Usurper is interesting. Robert is no longer a rebel, he has usurped the throne, they acknowledge that he is now the King, they just refuse to recognise him.

"When King's Landing fell, Ser Jaime slew your king with a golden sword, and I wondered where you were."

"Far away," Ser Gerold said, "or Aerys would yet sit on the Iron Throne, and our false brother would burn in seven hells."

Here Aerys is their king and still would be if they had anything to do with it.

"I came down on Storm's End to lift the siege," Ned told them, "and the Lords Tyrell and Redwyne dipped their banners, and all their knights bent the knee to pledge us fealty. I was certain you would be among them."

"Our knees do not bend easily," said Ser Arthur Dayne.

Now again this one is consistent with the bit about the usurper. Tyrell, Redwyne and the others did bend the knee, because their king and his heirs and successors were gone and there was no point in fighting on in the name of that boy fled to Dragonstone. On the other hand Messrs Hightower, Dayne and Whent decline to do so because their pride and their honour do not allow it. That's straightforward, but if the infant Jon Snow was their king, whom they were protecting, there would be no question of them bending the knee to anybody but him in the first place

If we separate Lyanna from the tower, there is nothing in the exchange with the Kingsguard to suggest that they are guarding anybody; whether Lyanna Stark, Jon Snow or even, the gods help us, Aegon Targaryen.

Conversely if we read everything as an encounter on the road - the only road - between the three knights heading north from Starfall and Ned Stark heading south to Starfall, the language makes sense, Ned's recollection of burying them [when he's awake] makes sense, his journey to Starfall afterwards makes sense, his recollection of the dying Lya, not at a lonely watchtower but in Starfall makes sense, and so too his learning there that Rhaegar called the place where they all died the tower of joy.

So why are they at the tower?

The obvious answer is that it’s a landmark and human nature being what it is their eyes will be drawn to it – as will Ned’s.

As to why they are going to fight, whatever the reason for his absence, Rhaegar was gone from Kings Landing for some time. Given the way things went when he re-appeared I think it’s reasonable that he came north with those 10,000 Dornishmen and that learning of them Aerys despatched Martell to command them. Whether Martell and Rhaegar met on the road, or passed each other en route probably doesn't much matter, but what does is that remark about Rhaegar recognising "in the end" that Aerys was mad.

There has been a lot of serious discussion about Rhaegar’s possible involvement in a coup to overthrow Aerys and the Harrenhal tourney being a cover for a gathering of conspirators or would-be conspirators. However the three guards in the Pass, and certainly not Hightower, were not party to the possible coup. Their loyalty to Aerys is unambiguously expressed. Whether Rhaegar ordered them to remain behind for that very reason, perhaps only using Lyanna and her bump as a pretext, we don't know but it’s a very strong possibility given that the exchange with Ned affirms their loyalty to Aerys but mentions no other king.

Therefore if we look at the exchange between Ned and the three knights without preconceptions it all makes sense. In the first place the knights are not defending or protecting anything, the three of them have lined up to fight.

It is more like the OK corral than the defence of Kings Landing.

We're actually given some very strong clues as to this. They speak of their king, Aerys, who they failed by being far away. They refer to Bob as the Usurper, because he has usurped the throne. He is the King now. Then both Viserys and Danaerys refer to Ned as the usurper's dog. He is recognised as Bob's right-hand man and just as responsible for everything that has happened.

The knights also speak of Jaime Lanister with some understandable venom and how he should burn in seven hells

And then there's the final exchange: "And now it begins..." to which Ned replies no, "Now it ends..."

That bit tends to get passed over in discussion but it’s of a piece with the rest. The three knights have failed in their duty and their king is dead. They are now Ronin and all that remains is their honour. That not only means that they will not kneel, but they will die avenging him. This is the vow they have sworn. "It begins" with killing the Usurper's Dog and if they're not stopped the forsworn Jaime Lanister and the Usurper himself are next on the list. But to Ned "Now it ends", because the war is over and too many have already died. And so they fight, and so the three Ronin die.

I agree with most of this, and it could be that Rhaegar ordered them explicitly to stay at the Tower of Joy (without Lyanna) to protect them. Of course Rhaegar intends to survive the Trident and defeat Robert when he leaves Dorne. If he plans a coup against Aerys after the Trident, as is hinted at, the Kingsguard would need to fight against him and protect their king. And Rhaegar would not want to fight them, and at least Arthur Dayne would not want to fight Rhaegar.

But this is a rather dull explanation that does not involve Lyanna and whether or not she gave birth to a living child of male gender in a tower in the middle of nowhere. So it's probably true.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

I fail to understand the need to speculate about Jon Snow's father again and again. We are five books into the series and in every one of the books he is the bastard son of Ned Stark. :dunno:

I agree with most of this, and it could be that Rhaegar ordered them explicitly to stay at the Tower of Joy (without Lyanna) to protect them. Of course Rhaegar intends to survive the Trident and defeat Robert when he leaves Dorne. If he plans a coup against Aerys after the Trident, as is hinted at, the Kingsguard would need to fight against him and protect their king. And Rhaegar would not want to fight them, and at least Arthur Dayne would not want to fight Rhaegar.

But this is a rather dull explanation that does not involve Lyanna and whether or not she gave birth to a living child of male gender in a tower in the middle of nowhere. So it's probably true.

See there, alienarea... you've answered your own question. It is the quest to alleviate boredom that drives endless speculation! :D

[alienarea]

See there, alienarea... you've answered your own question. It is the quest to alleviate boredom that drives endless speculation! :D

May I post that in the other thread? :D

[Frey family reunion]

The problem is: why would Brandon Stark believe anything that Littlefinger told him? Unless, someone trusted by both (and easily manipulated) passed along a message.

At least up until he betrayed Eddard, he still had Cat's trust as of AGOT, so I don't think he had earned his reputation as a backstabber yet. But I understand your scepticism as to why Brandon would take the word of a person that he recently fought a duel with. But I doubt after the Harrenhall tournament it would have taken too much convincing for Brandon to believe Rhaegar was responsible. Having said that I still think someone must have convinced Brandon that Rhaegar was responsible for him to react the way he did. I doubt Brandon would have ridden to King's Landing solely based on Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna at Harrenhall. It doesn't have to be Littlefinger, but it had to be someone. (Maester Walys perhaps?).

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

At least up until he betrayed Eddard, he still had Cat's trust as of AGOT, so I don't think he had earned his reputation as a backstabber yet. But I understand your scepticism as to why Brandon would take the word of a person that he recently fought a duel with. But I doubt after the Harrenhall tournament it would have taken too much convincing for Brandon to believe Rhaegar was responsible. Having said that I still think someone must have convinced Brandon that Rhaegar was responsible for him to react the way he did. I doubt Brandon would have ridden to King's Landing solely based on Rhaegar's crowning of Lyanna at Harrenhall. It doesn't have to be Littlefinger, but it had to be someone. (Maester Walys perhaps?).

Good points here. Whatever else was going on (and we have to assume there were dealings afoot)... Lyanna's disappearance was not immediately after the Harrenhal Tourney. It may have been as much as a year later. Harrenhal was old news by that time.

Also - a good reminder not to forget Lord Rickard's maester. Maester Walys and Archmaester Walgrave still figure in somewhere, and Martin hasn't yet provided enough information on that piece of the tale.

[Matthew.]

Precisely. LF works through intermediaries all the time, and those intermediaries are often quite unaware they are even being used. Clean hands, all the way.

Right, but that's present day Littlefinger. If we assume that the events with the Tullys and Brandon is what pushed LF toward his present road, would he already have been capable of executing such a plot while he was still a teenager? We've seen LF's original home on the 'little Finger, it's a hovel; surely not enough time had passed between his duel with Brandon and Robert's Rebellion for him to amass a network of intermediaries. In all likelihood, his network developed after he'd already grown in wealth and influence, a process that would have taken years.

[wolfmaid7]

I remain unconvinced by the argument that Bran is the wrong one, although there may well be an element of ambiguity in the winged wolf business just as there is between Azor Ahai and the Prince that was promised.

So far as Kurtz goes however there is no such ambiguity. Bran is the Summer child and he was told that he must live because Winter is coming.

This is not because he must fight Winter at all, but rather that in order to maintain the Oak King/Holly King balance, as the Summer child it is time for him be put into the earth [ie; the cave] not to die but to wait through the Winter until the Spring when he will return life to the land.

I agree with that,but hold that ambiguity abides enough where it could be Rickon.Couldn't his path also be seen in the same light? In the myth of the Oak and Holly King it only states that each in their turn is "hidden away" after they have been defeated ,until their due time. True, Bran is hidden in the cave,but Rickon is also hidden.The issue remains to me Blood raven's own words that seem to be contradictory to what the gods want.

And in that case, I like the notion that Monster (Gilly's boy) represents the changeling/Winter's child. After all, that was the exchange made through the Black Gate. Tossing that child onto the fire might give Mel a bit of a surprise...

He maybe some type of "coin" to say the least.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

May I post that in the other thread? :D

By all means. Go ahead!

[Melifeather]

Funny. The part I have a problem believing is Rhaegar fathering Jon on Lyanna. It seems very much out of character for him. Not so Petyr Baelish.

I was only addressing the idea of Littlefinger as Jon's father. I agree with you that Rhaegar seems problematic as Jon's father. I've been promoting that very idea for a very long time with posters thinking I'm the fruitcake.

I agree that Rhaegar, even if he was a rockstar, wouldn't seem the type to willfully go about having third child by running off with a Lord Paramount's daughter, especially one already betrothed to another Lord. And Peter might do that easily just cuz he's scum. Though he seems surprisingly chaste for a brothel keeper.

And, well, despite all the hoopla we see in many places, we don't actually know if Lyanna had anyone's baby. Ned's fever dream is just that, a fever dream, and while I believe Ned promised her something(s) important, and that Jon is Ned's blood, I don't think that term necessitates Lyanna as the mother...

I agree. Lyanna may have died by other means, or may have not died at all. Although, I do expect for her to follow the Bael story and be found in her own bed at Winterfell, having been hiding in the crypts the whole time.

You haven't even heard the theory, yet! :) But to address a couple of Matthew.'s points... (1) I think we can rule out the "monomaniacal Rhaegar" idea based on what we hear of him from various characters in the text. For those not interested in R+L=J, it would be nice to be able to write him off as mad or obsessed, but that's not the characterization we get of him. Instead, he's generally held up as the standard against which madness is judged (see: Aerys, Viserys, Daenerys...). Jorah Mormont and Barristan Selmy both are encouraged to follow Dany and swear allegiance to her based on the fact that she takes after Rhaegar, and not Aerys. So, he wasn't crazy or overly-swayed by passion. Selmy calls him "able," "dutiful," and "single-minded," and he wasn't talking about prophecy fulfillment, but about character.

I think devising scenarios in which Rhaegar was driven by madness, obsession, or passion is just one way for us to rationalize a scenario that doesn't otherwise make any sense (given his characterization), because we don't see any other explanation for Lyanna's disappearance and pregnancy. I'm as guilty of doing that as anyone. But I've begun to reconsider.

(2) With respect to Littlefinger... he was sent away from Riverrun some time before Brandon Stark "heard about Lyanna." And before leaving, he'd challenged Brandon for Catelyn's hand, begging Catelyn for her favor in the duel. Catelyn refused, giving her favor to Brandon instead, and begging him to spare Petyr's life. Notably, Petyr refused to yield to Brandon in the duel... and the "fight" was ended only after he was severely wounded and unable to stand. Whether Petyr himself ever viewed the duel as "ended" is debatable - given that Brandon did not kill him, and he never conceded defeat.

So, what's his motive? Well - he's been rejected by House Tully, and embarrassed (one might say dishonored) by House Stark. Catelyn, who refused him, is about to marry Brandon, who wounded but did not kill him. Odds are he's got the impression that folks aren't taking him seriously...

I can see Petyr kidnapping Lyanna or at least promoting the idea that she was kidnapped by Rhaegar in order to bring Brandon to Kings Landing and trusting that he would be killed. Arya Havinfun is right. We don't know for sure if Lyanna even gave birth. Lyanna could have been kidnapped by Petyr, but I doubt he fathered a child on her. I look forward to reading your theory.

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

Hey, BC - have you seen this?: http://www.reddit.com/r/asoiaf/comments/2kgfy7/spoilers_all_ama_with_authors_of_the_world_of_ice/

Little jab in there from Elio and Linda:

2. Fan theories: the one you like the most, the one that annoys you the most, and the one you wish would be true.

A: ...Most annoying: Anything with "heresy" in the title. Any theory that makes tenuous claims by making esoteric comparisons to mythology (sorry, guys, George really doesn't work that way). Any "theory" that is simply a claim that can't be 100% disproved but otherwise has no support but the basest conjecture...