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Jon Snow IS Dead


iDooom

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Jon' not dead, at least I think we will have more Jon chapters. In the case of Ned Stark, yes Ned died without finishing his story in a sense. But that is kind of what death is it happens when it happens and there is not a lot you can do about it. But in this case Ned' story was heavily tied to Jon' from the beginning specifically the past, and many un answered questions. There are ways Martin could answer these questions, through Bran, Howland maybe talking to Bran or Bran vision. But in truth the best way would probably be if Jon' story continues.

One large reason I feel Jon will live weather it is medical care or the last kiss, or something of that nature is because Dany is a alive. A Dance with Dragons is not named so because of an old Targaryen civil war. It's titled that way because the Dragons are dancing, or mirroring the other throughout the book. The Dragons are dancing. Dany did not die, granted she is in a bad way but she is alive. Her story is also slightly further along than Jon' we see her after the assassination attempt.

And really what would be the point of Jon dying in that moment? How Ned died very much advanced the story. It would essentially make Jon a giant Red Herring and his chapters next to pointless. Neds chapters gave us a ton a of back story, and his death was a driving force of multiple plot lines. Of course the back story Ned gave us was by and large about Jon and Lyanna. You kill off Jon and you are pretty much out of options for completing that story.

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I don't think that Jon shares your medical condition.

No? Really. :p

Besides, it's not called "shock" when it is not related to blood loss, sepsis, or spinal injury; it's called "syncope" or "hypotension". You're not going into "shock" at all. Pain or sudden trauma does not bring on shock, it can bring on syncope due to low blood pressure due to vagal nerve stimulation. Shock is either hemorrhagic or neurogenic or septic.

...none of which changes the fact that he couldn't bleed to death in a few seconds.

I'm saying he's cold due to blood loss and shock. You say he's cold because of the snow. Who's reaching?

Do you purposely misunderstand what a person says? I gave it as an alternate (and fully reasonable) explanation. You want to attribute Jon feeling cold to a sudden loss of blood- but you can't prove that he's bleeding to death. Falling in the snow would ALSO make him feel cold. It's not "reaching", it's called "looking at all of the evidence and coming up with all explanations". Loss of blood is more likely, but it's not the ONLY explanation, was my intended meaning with that.

How do you know that Martin hasn't "tricked" you into believing that Jon has this arc? How do you know that Martin is not killing Jon now in order to build up greater tension in the future when the others come?

Because Martin's not a hack who feels the need to kill off one of his main characters when they clearly have more story to tell just to piss people off.

There are literally several dozen hints around R+L=J found in all five books. With Jon dead or undead, they serve no purpose.

If Dany can walk into a fire and hatch dragons, Jon can survive a survivable attack.

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Even if he dies, he will rise again. I think its even a given that he has to die to transform into AA. Melisandre will not need Shireen's or Stannis's blood to save Jon. Jon's own blood is King's blood. If his spirit is inside of Ghost it will come back inside of Jon's body when he has fulfilled the prophecy. This is probably how Melisandre is finally going to figure out why she keeps seeing snow when she wants to see AA in the fire. IMVHO.


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Even if he dies, he will rise again. I think its even a given that he has to die to transform into AA. Melisandre will not need Shireen's or Stannis's blood to save Jon. Jon's own blood is King's blood. If his spirit is inside of Ghost it will come back inside of Jon's body when he has fulfilled the prophecy. This is probably how Melisandre is finally going to figure out why she keeps seeing snow when she wants to see AA in the fire. IMVHO.

I think this is also a possibility.

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I don’t think we will hear from him in the next book but he won’t be dead. I think the Wall POV will be Mel and we will hear some misleading unreliable report on his health/death.



The chapter I was waiting for the most after ASOS was Tyrion and that was milked for a very long time. There was a Tyrion chapter released after AFFC and before ADWD but he milked the interest in Tyrions story for almost all its worth. I think it will be a the book after next, which also won’t be the last book , when we get a Jon/Ghost/Snowdinger chapter.



Now it’s all at its peak popularity, he’ll continue to milk it like Jordan did. He’s just done the companion book about the world written a lot by someone else like WOT did. Jordan had New Spring in Legends which had a Dunk story in it too IIRC. Now I think about it, it would be odd if Jon didn't became the Dragon Reborn too :ack:



I think Jon is alive and GRRM will milk the cliffhanger for another book


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Without limiting the various kinds of shock only to those that conveniently support one theory or the other, here are just a couple on links listing different kinds of shock. Whether psychological or physiological.

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shock

http://www.mhhe.com/biosci/ap/foxhumphys/student/olc/c-reading10.html

http://www.medicinenet.com/shock/page2.htm#what_are_the_types_of_shock

If we're talking about blood loss, then hypovolemic shock is the most likely culprit. There are many kinds of shock including a shock that causes fainting.

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http://www.medicinenet.com/shock/page2.htm#what_are_the_types_of_shock

If we're talking about blood loss, then hypovolemic shock is the most likely culprit. There are many kinds of shock including a shock that causes fainting.

I agree that it's the most likely, I just think it's a bit pedantic to say that this or that happened without a doubt. It all happens so suddenly and is so confused that all that is certain is that Jon is stabbed and that he falls and feels cold. I don't know any doctor that would hazard a definitive prognosis only based on Jon's POV.
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I agree that it's the most likely, I just think it's a bit pedantic to say that this or that happened without a doubt. It all happens so suddenly and is so confused that all that is certain is that Jon is stabbed and that he falls and feels cold. I don't know any doctor that would hazard a definitive prognosis only based on Jon's POV.

True. He could be having an allergic reaction to the knives and be suffering from anaphylactic shock.

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I think the OP's analysis doesn't look closely enough. I've posted this elsewhere, but here goes again.




A Foreshadowing and The Attack

From the scene between Jon and Sam (AFfC ), when the raven pecked through Sam's glove :


“Did that wretch break the skin?”

Sam eased the books down and peeled off his glove. “He did.” He felt faint. “I’m bleeding.”

“We all shed our blood for the Watch. Wear thicker gloves.”


In that same scene, as Sam enters Jon's quarters - ... he made his way past the forge with its anvil and bellows. A shirt of ringmail rested on his (Jon's) workbench, half-completed.


This scene raises some questions ... Does it foreshadow the assassination attempt on Jon , and does it hint at hidden information? - I think we can draw a definite parallel. For openers, Jon's attackers certainly can be described as "wretches" .


Is Sam hurt ? - Yes , but not seriously. He's bleeding ,and he "feels faint" ( just as Jon seems to later, when pain washes over him ) ... Sam handles ravens all the time , and apparently has a way with them. Mormont's raven can be a nuisance , but is generally regarded affectionately by those who come in close contact with it. - e.g. while Jon calls it a wretch ,or a thief , or swats at it , he also lets it read over his shoulder, ;) and strokes it's feathers. - Sam may be equally wounded ( if not moreso ) by the fact the bird "turned on him". ... Will this prove to be similar to the attack on Jon? ..Probably not as much as we would like , but I'm betting - to a degree - yes.


Does Jon go on to heed his own advice to "wear thicker gloves" ? .. Was that Chekov's shirt of ringmail on his workbench ? .. Although he doesn't seem to expect Marsh to go as far as attacking him , he must have felt vulnerable going to address the wildlings ( Some had earlier accepted his terms with cold, dead eyes , while fingering their sword hilts.).. He couldn't be certain he'd win them all over, and from some of them, violence might be expected , after hearing the letter .. moreso than from Bowen .


I think it's reasonable to assume Jon would take extra precautions in his attire . The following playful banter between Jon and Val says it would only be common sense..


“This queen of yours must be fierce if the legs of grown men give out beneath them when they meet her. Should I have dressed in mail instead of wool and fur? These clothes were given to me by Dalla, I would sooner not get bloodstains all over them.”

“If words drew blood, you might have cause to fear. I think your clothes are safe enough, my

lady.”


I suspect Jon may have been wearing mail during all the scenes where he's put himself at risk since the shirt was mentioned ; places where he knew he could be facing more than mere words ... e.g. Mole's town, the vows at the grove, Tormund's camp, perhaps the meeting atop the wall, bringing in Tormund's people, and now in the shieldhall.


We All Make Assumptions , Including Jon


Jon notices Bowen with Wick, Lew and Alf in the shieldhall. When he sees Wick and Bowen attack , he'd naturally assume that the other two would follow suit ..That's 4, count 'em, 4 knives that he'd be expecting. This might explain the ambiguous "he never felt the fourth knife". It was expected, but perhaps never came.. Jon may make other assumptions as well and since we're reading his POV , we're tempted to do the same. Here's the scene :


When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?”


“For the Watch.” Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.


Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He

punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.


Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the

wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end.


When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …


Firstly , I want to point out that it seems longer when we read the description than if we were watching the action take place, so there may be very little time between individual strikes. Some things that are described separately or consecutively ( a word , a thought , a feeling, a movement) can overlap , or even happen completely simultaneously.( e.g. - “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him.) .. Also , Jon may be experiencing that phenomenon where things seem to happen in slow motion in times of crisis... The whole attack above would probably play out in no more than 30 seconds , and that might be generous.


When I count these things out in my head matching movement to "one elephant , two elephant", I go at a methodical pace so as to err on the side of caution. ( Yes, that's how obsessed I am ). ..As a former dancer (in another century), piecing the choreography of the scene together has always intrigued me.


And speaking of choreography , Bowen & co seem to have previously blocked out who would strike where ( we see 3 potentially lethal locations).. They had their script ready (For the watch ) and each struck at a separate kill point. ..They couldn't have predicted Jon's final plan or the reception he'd received , and I don't think there was time to work out who would stab where in the brief time since they left the shieldhall. ..So, I think only the time of the attack was spur of the moment. The choreography is visible , they just didn't know they would be performing it quite so soon.


Even if they rehearsed beforehand , off-page, they couldn't have rehearsed in that environment , so their timing and cues could easily be off. (In a dance routine , this means people can bump into each other , may not meet where they're supposed to , lifts may be awkward, or not get off the ground at all, etc. ... and that's without members of the audience potentially getting in the way.)


And secondly ,as always, GRRM's use of language should be scrutinized.



Breakdown


Wick- He moves first and must be very nervous. The wound he inflicts is superficial . Though slightly wounded ,Jon disarms Wick on his second attempt. Wick's body laguage expresses it wasn't his idea.. It wasn't me = it wasn't my idea. He was "only following orders" ?


Jon's reactions in response to the first strike are quick , as they usually are. But when he can't draw Longclaw, he assumes his fingers have "grown stiff and clumsy" ( even though his exercise to prevent this has become habitual, and we've never seen it happen to him before ). It doesn't occur to Jon that someone might have tampered with his sword. ..His attempt to draw Longclaw does not go on for a long time at all, because Bowen wouldn't be hanging back , perhaps giving Jon time to succeed...


Bowen - Steps in front of Jon, and connects with a stab described as a "punch" . But when he "pulled" his hand away, the knife stayed put ..Jon wrenched it free..


If Bowen was just letting go of the knife , there would be no need to "pull his hand away" . The use of "pull" suggests that his intention was to pull out the knife ( perhaps ready for another stab).. His "pull" combined with Jon's "wrench" suggests the knife got caught on something. ...(Ringmail ?..caught on the way out, or the way in ?)


Where is that ringmail shirt ? .. How much boiled or studded leather or other layers is Jon wearing ? - We don't know, so we don't know how deep the wound went . Bowen "buried" the knife, but how much of it was buried in Jon , how much in layers of clothing ? The more shallow the wound , the less likelihood of serious damage. It may have pierced the muscle wall, but we don't know by how much, or if it cut any organs. We know it did cut , since the wound was "smoking" , and we know it went straight in ( punch) ... didn't slash , rip or tear, as far as we know ( and that's a good sign ). - But , if the knife had been covered in Jon's blood should it not be smoking, too ?

When Jon thinks "Stick them with the pointy end" , he can see the knife - this could mean that only the pointy end had blood on it.


3rd Attacker ... Left Hand Lew /Alf ? - Jon "falls to his knees" just after Bowen's "punch" (potentially , seconds or split seconds after). If Lew/Alf was already moving in for the attack (and it only makes sense that he would be), it would be very difficult to get a good angle on the strike. .. As he's attacking, the target suddenly drops - considerably lower than expected - as Jon falls to his knees. Whether stabbing underhand or overhand, there's a strong possibility of hitting the target with a fist (overhand) or forearm / elbow (underhand) rather than sticking Jon with "the pointy end".


Bowen's "punch" is actually a stab. Knowing the way GRRM likes to play with words, it's possible that the intended stab from the "third dagger", was in fact more of a punch.

Jon can't see this 3rd attacker , but he has just been struck at twice with knives , so he'd naturally assume it was a "third dagger" that " took him between the shoulder blades" His reaction, though, - he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow - is equally compatible with having the wind knocked out of him and being pushed forward as a result of the blow...And the phrase, "When the third dagger took him..." , doesn't actually tell us when.


The previous sentence was "Pain washed over him." If that was still occurring, which seems probable , Jon would be more easily pushed forward. But .. if he was wearing ringmail , even if the dagger connected, it would very possibly be deflected if it was coming at less than a direct angle.


That Jon thinks - Stick them with the pointy end. -is , I think , at least a hint to us to consider whether the individual pointy ends actually stuck.



4th Attacker - Never acted ,IMO . I think it's most likely that he either backed out or was stopped - because Jon doesn't see a fourth knife ( he's face first in the snow) and never felt a fourth knife ( though he was obviously expecting one) and we are still in Jon's thoughts.


Pain washed over him..


A thin red slash marked the eastern horizon where the sun might soon appear. It reminded Selmy of the first blood welling from a wound. Often, even with a deep cut, the blood came before the pain. ..( The Queen's Hand , ADWD)


Jon's first wound was "a thin red slash", but we know it wasn't deep, it was only a graze. Blood "welled" between his fingers..but the first mention of pain comes with "pain washed over him", near he end of the scene. This must be the pain from Wick's slash ( or at least include it), so it has to tell us the whole attack was extremely quick and I don't trust that Wick, Bowen or the other suspected attackers (unpracticed as they are) could have been as focused or accurate as they needed to be ,to get the job done .. in a fluid situation, taking place in the middle of chaos.



A thin red slash marked the eastern horizon where the sun might soon appear. Thin red slash = Wick's slash... the sun might soon appear = the sun son might rise .. Might ? Well, if the "son" (of Rhaegar / Ned) is like the "sun" , it can't be prevented from rising.



Only the cold...



Some people think this is where Jon dies . Some people think he loses consciousness , but it's possible he doesn't even do that. GRRM trails off with - "..." . Maybe this sticks out to me because , while I do that a lot , GRRM doesn't. Just quickly searching through ADWD, he really only uses it as a pause in someone's speech or thoughts, which he then promptly finishes off , or when one character is interrrupted by another.


Devilish as he can be , it may be that GRRM hasn't only left everything in mid-action , but in mid-sentence .. mid-thought. :D :D



Other Considerations


As noted, Jon's attackers are not primarily fighters.. but they seem to have been coached as to where each one should strike to make a potentially lethal hit . Here are some interesting tid-bits from The Sworn Sword :


Dunk and Ser Bennis are trying to train Ser Eustace's smallfolk for battle.. Ser Bennis gives instructions on where to strike to kill..

" The belly and the throat are best, I find.".. "Right there's the heart , that will do the job as well. Trouble is, the ribs is in the way. The belly's nice and soft. Guttings slow, but certain.".. ..."Now if some fool goes and turns his back on you, put your point between his shoulderblades or through his kidney. That's here. They don't live long once you prick 'em in the kidney."



...and a bit farther on..


the recruits began practising their spear work as Bennis bellowed at them "Stick and twist and rip it free. Stick and twist and rip, but get the damned thing out! You'll be wanting it soon enough for the next one .."



Throat, belly and between the shoulder blades..Would a fourth knife have been planned for the kidney? Seems like a good bet... And notice all jon's attackers avoid those pesky ribs in front of the heart...Have these inexperienced fighters also been instructed by a knight ?


I imagine knife work and spear work share some methods.The same reasoning ( get the damned thing out) would apply whether preparing for the next man , or the next stab. Bowen may also be trying (and failing) to "twist and rip". ...And a bit farther along in TSS, we're shown that..


even after practising, the trainees basically fall apart when Dunk tests their progress - armed with only a wooden sword, himself.



Our non-rangers might not think of it, but if they had a knightly instructor (and one who knew Jon's skills).. he might think it would be wise to interfere with Jon's sword ( not wood but Valyrian steel) ... just as insurance.


Four on One..


When Iron Emmett spied him, he raised a hand and combat ceased. “Lord Commander. How

may we serve you?”

“With your three best.”

Emmett grinned. “Arron. Emrick. Jace.”


Jon has practiced against multiple opponents, so I don't think he'd be thrown by being attacked by 3 or 4 stewards. We've seen him take severe blows, and still manage to come back. When something does throw him , e.g. glamoured Mance , we see him analysing the situation as he goes ,so he won't be surprised twice.


Notably, we've seen his berserker-like strength and a sort of battle lust (triggered by anger) a number of times ... e.g. , lifting Thorne off his feet by the throat .. yanking the head-decorated spear out of the frozen ground ..or in his bout with Emmett in ASoS - he's losing and is about to yield , when one blow stuns him and manages to trigger an old anger. It ends by 2 men having to pull Jon off a dazed and beaten Emmett. Jon had not even heard him yield. ..The conspirators' sneak attack , which Jon must see as an underhanded betrayal - not just of himself , but of the NW and it's purpose - is bound to raise his ire, I would think.



ETA: also from Barristan's "Kingbreaker" chapter...



Blood welled from Khrazz’s wounds. That only seemed to make him wilder.


..and that's Khrazz, who we haven't seen have any "berserker" moments...





As Jon whispers, "Ghost", is he spontaneously reaching for Ghost , trying to call to him .. or is it because he suddenly sense's Ghost's presence , as we've seen before ? ... Is Ghost already there ?


We've seen Summer lend strength to Bran and Jon possibly lend strength to Ghost when Ghost was injured by the eagle..will this sharing of strength come into effect ? Ghost was already angry, himself. Will this figure into the equation ?...



Lots of people have speculated that perhaps Mel went to free Ghost when she left the shieldhall. I suspect she'd be preoccupied by the claim of Stannis' death and be hurrying to try to check on that bit of news , but she might have gone past Jon's quarters , or she might have sent Devan ( mentioned earlier ) to open the door , even though he's afraid of Ghost.



Horse and Rory, who took over from Mully and Flea before the shieldhall, were with Jon ( I believe that left no-one outside Jon's door ). There are plenty of candidates that might have let Ghost out. ... One of my favourites would be feisty little Dryn. Jon made Dryn his page, but he hasn't been mentioned since. Dryn ought to have access to Jon's quarters , could have a number of reasons to be there, and could have purposely ( or unwittingly ) freed Ghost .


After steeping myself in this for months on end I realise just how much is ambiguous or outright misleading . With "Ghost," being Jon's last word in ADWD , I almost expect Jon's next chapter to open with , ..."to me! " , and to see Jon get up off the ground in true berserker form and rip that sword free of it's scabbard. I wouldn't have thought so on first reading, but now it's definitely a plausible possibility, IMO.


I think it's for Jon to actually lead those wildlings somewhere , not to have gained their loyalty and respect only to lose it immediately.. by being bested by the likes of Marsh & co.


I've long suspected Morna, the warrior witch might have some special skill with healing wounds. It was the daughter of a wise woman who once treated Mance, when he was suffering from really severe blood loss.


That's the best sense I can make of the attack for now, fully realising that there are so many characters whose movements are unaccounted for, that a radical re-assessment may be in order later on.

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Could be so many things, but dead-dead is the least convincing of them all. Why bother going through all the work to creat a character like him and his background, only to end it like that?

And the whole blood thing doesn't serve as evidence of death-death. People can bleed a lot, pass out, and then recover. Not to mention the whole warg thing, Melissandre thing etc etc.

Just curious about how he'll pull through.

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Since it's a Jon POV chapter, maybe he only thinks what hit him between the shoulder blades was a knife, but maybe it was an ally knocking him down to make him harder to stab and to get him out of the way so as to be able to counter-attack against his attackers.



How close was he standing to Wun Wun at the time?


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I agree that it's the most likely, I just think it's a bit pedantic to say that this or that happened without a doubt. It all happens so suddenly and is so confused that all that is certain is that Jon is stabbed and that he falls and feels cold. I don't know any doctor that would hazard a definitive prognosis only based on Jon's POV.

^This. That was pretty much the point I was trying to make.

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People can bleed a lot, pass out, and then recover.

This is true. But after 3 severe knife wounds Jon goes unconscious after about 30 seconds of bleeding. You can pass out after losing about a pint of blood, but Jon is young and pretty healthy, so let's say it takes 2 pints of blood loss for Jon to pass out. An average male has about 8 pints of blood in their body, 5.5 liters. So Jon has lost between 12.5 to 25% of his blood in 30 seconds. If he keeps bleeding at the same rate, he will lose between 25 to 50% of his blood over the next 30 seconds following unconsciousness. Jon has anywhere between 30 seconds and 90 seconds before he bleeds out to the point where he exsanguinates. His wounds are in his lower abdomen, and his mid back. Is he going to recieve aid in the next 90 seconds, and can they control the bleeding? There are two wounds at least, probably three that require attention.

Now, I know this is not proof that Jon is dead, because this is ASOIAF, not ER. But IRL people who bleed, pass out, then recover, are ones that are not bleeding out at that rate.

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I mean how many chapters have we seen end where GRRM makes it seem like the character is dead, only for them to be fine the next chapter. I can name 3 off the top of my head: When Bran falls from the Tower, Arya outside the Red Wedding when she gets hit with the ax, and Tyrion when hes drowning. All seemed to be dead as the chapter ended, all were well and alive their next chapter (sans Bran, but that enabled him to open his third eye so thats not all bad).



So i like to think Jon is alive and that either Ghost cam and stopped them or someone noticed or something of the short and he's fine. I think GRRM left it off like this at the end of the book too because he is the Golden Boy Jon Snow. He is the one everyone expects to be King or have some sort of major role in the story; so i can see GRRM leaving it off like this because it will make ppl question and talk about it and think about for a long time



i think well find out he's fine early in TWOW. Either he's completely fine, or he "dies" and is brought back to life and therefore is allowed to leave his post at the wall. No way do i think he's dead and i dont think he'll live out as ghost or be reborn in someone elses flesh (really?)


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This is true. But after 3 severe knife wounds Jon goes unconscious after about 30 seconds of bleeding. You can pass out after losing about a pint of blood, but Jon is young and pretty healthy, so let's say it takes 2 pints of blood loss for Jon to pass out. An average male has about 8 pints of blood in their body, 5.5 liters. So Jon has lost between 12.5 to 25% of his blood in 30 seconds. If he keeps bleeding at the same rate, he will lose between 25 to 50% of his blood over the next 30 seconds following unconsciousness. Jon has anywhere between 30 seconds and 90 seconds before he bleeds out to the point where he exsanguinates. His wounds are in his lower abdomen, and his mid back. Is he going to recieve aid in the next 90 seconds, and can they control the bleeding? There are two wounds at least, probably three that require attention.

Now, I know this is not proof that Jon is dead, because this is ASOIAF, not ER. But IRL people who bleed, pass out, then recover, are ones that are not bleeding out at that rate.

yes this is well and good if they're severe wounds, but who says they're severe. as mentioned before, they wear A LOT of clothing at the Wall at this time, plus his massive cloak on his back. he could have been stabbed 3-4 times and only had minimal wounds...wounded enough to knock him out, but may not severe wounds. it's never said the extent of the stabbings

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