Jon Snow IS Dead

[sj4iy]

This is true. But after 3 severe knife wounds Jon goes unconscious after about 30 seconds of bleeding. You can pass out after losing about a pint of blood, but Jon is young and pretty healthy, so let's say it takes 2 pints of blood loss for Jon to pass out. An average male has about 8 pints of blood in their body, 5.5 liters. So Jon has lost between 12.5 to 25% of his blood in 30 seconds. If he keeps bleeding at the same rate, he will lose between 25 to 50% of his blood over the next 30 seconds following unconsciousness. Jon has anywhere between 30 seconds and 90 seconds before he bleeds out to the point where he exsanguinates. His wounds are in his lower abdomen, and his mid back. Is he going to recieve aid in the next 90 seconds, and can they control the bleeding? There are two wounds at least, probably three that require attention.

Now, I know this is not proof that Jon is dead, because this is ASOIAF, not ER. But IRL people who bleed, pass out, then recover, are ones that are not bleeding out at that rate.

There are a lot of assumptions in this.

1. Jon doesn't pass out.

2. Jon MIGHT have been stabbed three times, but he doesn't even feel the third knife. And the second knife 'took' him in the back...which could mean anything at all.

3. We don't know the severity of any his injuries.

[Raving Stark the Mad]

yes this is well and good if they're severe wounds, but who says they're severe. as mentioned before, they wear A LOT of clothing at the Wall at this time, plus his massive cloak on his back. he could have been stabbed 3-4 times and only had minimal wounds...wounded enough to knock him out, but may not severe wounds. it's never said the extent of the stabbings

Arrrrrrrr. If they're not severe then why did he pass out and display symptoms of shock?

[Raving Stark the Mad]

There are a lot of assumptions in this.

1. Jon doesn't pass out.

2. Jon MIGHT have been stabbed three times, but he doesn't even feel the third knife. And the second knife 'took' him in the back...which could mean anything at all.

3. We don't know the severity of any his injuries.

The fact that he didn't feel the fourth knife leads me to believe he did pass out. If he did pass out, then we do know something about the severity of his injuries. We know they were severe enough to make him lose consciousness, likely from blood loss.

[sj4iy]

The fact that he didn't feel the fourth knife leads me to believe he did pass out. If he did pass out, then we do know something about the severity of his injuries. We know they were severe enough to make him lose consciousness, likely from blood loss.

As I said before- this is jumping to conclusions. He could have never felt the fourth knife for a number of reasons. But he very obviously doesn't pass out.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end.

When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold ...

Martin picked his words carefully. They can lead you to thinking something happened that really didn't. Just like with Arya, and Bran and Tyrion.

[Raving Stark the Mad]

As I said before- this is jumping to conclusions. He could have never felt the fourth knife for a number of reasons. But he very obviously doesn't pass out.

I'm simply going with the most likely reasons he did not feel the fourth knife, based on what we know rather then what we hope or what we would like to be.

I disagree and believe that it is highly likely that he did pass out.

[Hank of House Hutton]

I think the OP's analysis doesn't look closely enough. I've posted this elsewhere, but here goes again.

A Foreshadowing and The Attack

From the scene between Jon and Sam (AFfC ), when the raven pecked through Sam's glove :

“Did that wretch break the skin?”

Sam eased the books down and peeled off his glove. “He did.” He felt faint. “I’m bleeding.”

“We all shed our blood for the Watch. Wear thicker gloves.”

In that same scene, as Sam enters Jon's quarters - ... he made his way past the forge with its anvil and bellows. A shirt of ringmail rested on his (Jon's) workbench, half-completed.

This scene raises some questions ... Does it foreshadow the assassination attempt on Jon , and does it hint at hidden information? - I think we can draw a definite parallel. For openers, Jon's attackers certainly can be described as "wretches" .

Is Sam hurt ? - Yes , but not seriously. He's bleeding ,and he "feels faint" ( just as Jon seems to later, when pain washes over him ) ... Sam handles ravens all the time , and apparently has a way with them. Mormont's raven can be a nuisance , but is generally regarded affectionately by those who come in close contact with it. - e.g. while Jon calls it a wretch ,or a thief , or swats at it , he also lets it read over his shoulder, ;) and strokes it's feathers. - Sam may be equally wounded ( if not moreso ) by the fact the bird "turned on him". ... Will this prove to be similar to the attack on Jon? ..Probably not as much as we would like , but I'm betting - to a degree - yes.

Does Jon go on to heed his own advice to "wear thicker gloves" ? .. Was that Chekov's shirt of ringmail on his workbench ? .. Although he doesn't seem to expect Marsh to go as far as attacking him , he must have felt vulnerable going to address the wildlings ( Some had earlier accepted his terms with cold, dead eyes , while fingering their sword hilts.).. He couldn't be certain he'd win them all over, and from some of them, violence might be expected , after hearing the letter .. moreso than from Bowen .

I think it's reasonable to assume Jon would take extra precautions in his attire . The following playful banter between Jon and Val says it would only be common sense..

“This queen of yours must be fierce if the legs of grown men give out beneath them when they meet her. Should I have dressed in mail instead of wool and fur? These clothes were given to me by Dalla, I would sooner not get bloodstains all over them.”

“If words drew blood, you might have cause to fear. I think your clothes are safe enough, my

lady.”

I suspect Jon may have been wearing mail during all the scenes where he's put himself at risk since the shirt was mentioned ; places where he knew he could be facing more than mere words ... e.g. Mole's town, the vows at the grove, Tormund's camp, perhaps the meeting atop the wall, bringing in Tormund's people, and now in the shieldhall.

We All Make Assumptions , Including Jon

Jon notices Bowen with Wick, Lew and Alf in the shieldhall. When he sees Wick and Bowen attack , he'd naturally assume that the other two would follow suit ..That's 4, count 'em, 4 knives that he'd be expecting. This might explain the ambiguous "he never felt the fourth knife". It was expected, but perhaps never came.. Jon may make other assumptions as well and since we're reading his POV , we're tempted to do the same. Here's the scene :

When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?”

“For the Watch.” Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He

punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the

wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end.

When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …

Firstly , I want to point out that it seems longer when we read the description than if we were watching the action take place, so there may be very little time between individual strikes. Some things that are described separately or consecutively ( a word , a thought , a feeling, a movement) can overlap , or even happen completely simultaneously.( e.g. - “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him.) .. Also , Jon may be experiencing that phenomenon where things seem to happen in slow motion in times of crisis... The whole attack above would probably play out in no more than 30 seconds , and that might be generous.

When I count these things out in my head matching movement to "one elephant , two elephant", I go at a methodical pace so as to err on the side of caution. ( Yes, that's how obsessed I am ). ..As a former dancer (in another century), piecing the choreography of the scene together has always intrigued me.

And speaking of choreography , Bowen & co seem to have previously blocked out who would strike where ( we see 3 potentially lethal locations).. They had their script ready (For the watch ) and each struck at a separate kill point. ..They couldn't have predicted Jon's final plan or the reception he'd received , and I don't think there was time to work out who would stab where in the brief time since they left the shieldhall. ..So, I think only the time of the attack was spur of the moment. The choreography is visible , they just didn't know they would be performing it quite so soon.

Even if they rehearsed beforehand , off-page, they couldn't have rehearsed in that environment , so their timing and cues could easily be off. (In a dance routine , this means people can bump into each other , may not meet where they're supposed to , lifts may be awkward, or not get off the ground at all, etc. ... and that's without members of the audience potentially getting in the way.)

And secondly ,as always, GRRM's use of language should be scrutinized.

Breakdown

Wick- He moves first and must be very nervous. The wound he inflicts is superficial . Though slightly wounded ,Jon disarms Wick on his second attempt. Wick's body laguage expresses it wasn't his idea.. It wasn't me = it wasn't my idea. He was "only following orders" ?

Jon's reactions in response to the first strike are quick , as they usually are. But when he can't draw Longclaw, he assumes his fingers have "grown stiff and clumsy" ( even though his exercise to prevent this has become habitual, and we've never seen it happen to him before ). It doesn't occur to Jon that someone might have tampered with his sword. ..His attempt to draw Longclaw does not go on for a long time at all, because Bowen wouldn't be hanging back , perhaps giving Jon time to succeed...

Bowen - Steps in front of Jon, and connects with a stab described as a "punch" . But when he "pulled" his hand away, the knife stayed put ..Jon wrenched it free..

If Bowen was just letting go of the knife , there would be no need to "pull his hand away" . The use of "pull" suggests that his intention was to pull out the knife ( perhaps ready for another stab).. His "pull" combined with Jon's "wrench" suggests the knife got caught on something. ...(Ringmail ?..caught on the way out, or the way in ?)

Where is that ringmail shirt ? .. How much boiled or studded leather or other layers is Jon wearing ? - We don't know, so we don't know how deep the wound went . Bowen "buried" the knife, but how much of it was buried in Jon , how much in layers of clothing ? The more shallow the wound , the less likelihood of serious damage. It may have pierced the muscle wall, but we don't know by how much, or if it cut any organs. We know it did cut , since the wound was "smoking" , and we know it went straight in ( punch) ... didn't slash , rip or tear, as far as we know ( and that's a good sign ). - But , if the knife had been covered in Jon's blood should it not be smoking, too ?

When Jon thinks "Stick them with the pointy end" , he can see the knife - this could mean that only the pointy end had blood on it.

3rd Attacker ... Left Hand Lew /Alf ? - Jon "falls to his knees" just after Bowen's "punch" (potentially , seconds or split seconds after). If Lew/Alf was already moving in for the attack (and it only makes sense that he would be), it would be very difficult to get a good angle on the strike. .. As he's attacking, the target suddenly drops - considerably lower than expected - as Jon falls to his knees. Whether stabbing underhand or overhand, there's a strong possibility of hitting the target with a fist (overhand) or forearm / elbow (underhand) rather than sticking Jon with "the pointy end".

Bowen's "punch" is actually a stab. Knowing the way GRRM likes to play with words, it's possible that the intended stab from the "third dagger", was in fact more of a punch.

Jon can't see this 3rd attacker , but he has just been struck at twice with knives , so he'd naturally assume it was a "third dagger" that " took him between the shoulder blades" His reaction, though, - he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow - is equally compatible with having the wind knocked out of him and being pushed forward as a result of the blow...And the phrase, "When the third dagger took him..." , doesn't actually tell us when.

The previous sentence was "Pain washed over him." If that was still occurring, which seems probable , Jon would be more easily pushed forward. But .. if he was wearing ringmail , even if the dagger connected, it would very possibly be deflected if it was coming at less than a direct angle.

That Jon thinks - Stick them with the pointy end. -is , I think , at least a hint to us to consider whether the individual pointy ends actually stuck.

4th Attacker - Never acted ,IMO . I think it's most likely that he either backed out or was stopped - because Jon doesn't see a fourth knife ( he's face first in the snow) and never felt a fourth knife ( though he was obviously expecting one) and we are still in Jon's thoughts.

Pain washed over him..

A thin red slash marked the eastern horizon where the sun might soon appear. It reminded Selmy of the first blood welling from a wound. Often, even with a deep cut, the blood came before the pain. ..( The Queen's Hand , ADWD)

Jon's first wound was "a thin red slash", but we know it wasn't deep, it was only a graze. Blood "welled" between his fingers..but the first mention of pain comes with "pain washed over him", near he end of the scene. This must be the pain from Wick's slash ( or at least include it), so it has to tell us the whole attack was extremely quick and I don't trust that Wick, Bowen or the other suspected attackers (unpracticed as they are) could have been as focused or accurate as they needed to be ,to get the job done .. in a fluid situation, taking place in the middle of chaos.

A thin red slash marked the eastern horizon where the sun might soon appear. Thin red slash = Wick's slash... the sun might soon appear = the sun son might rise .. Might ? Well, if the "son" (of Rhaegar / Ned) is like the "sun" , it can't be prevented from rising.

Only the cold...

Some people think this is where Jon dies . Some people think he loses consciousness , but it's possible he doesn't even do that. GRRM trails off with - "..." . Maybe this sticks out to me because , while I do that a lot , GRRM doesn't. Just quickly searching through ADWD, he really only uses it as a pause in someone's speech or thoughts, which he then promptly finishes off , or when one character is interrrupted by another.

Devilish as he can be , it may be that GRRM hasn't only left everything in mid-action , but in mid-sentence .. mid-thought. :D :D

Other Considerations

As noted, Jon's attackers are not primarily fighters.. but they seem to have been coached as to where each one should strike to make a potentially lethal hit . Here are some interesting tid-bits from The Sworn Sword :

Dunk and Ser Bennis are trying to train Ser Eustace's smallfolk for battle.. Ser Bennis gives instructions on where to strike to kill..

" The belly and the throat are best, I find.".. "Right there's the heart , that will do the job as well. Trouble is, the ribs is in the way. The belly's nice and soft. Guttings slow, but certain.".. ..."Now if some fool goes and turns his back on you, put your point between his shoulderblades or through his kidney. That's here. They don't live long once you prick 'em in the kidney."

...and a bit farther on..

the recruits began practising their spear work as Bennis bellowed at them "Stick and twist and rip it free. Stick and twist and rip, but get the damned thing out! You'll be wanting it soon enough for the next one .."

Throat, belly and between the shoulder blades..Would a fourth knife have been planned for the kidney? Seems like a good bet... And notice all jon's attackers avoid those pesky ribs in front of the heart...Have these inexperienced fighters also been instructed by a knight ?

I imagine knife work and spear work share some methods.The same reasoning ( get the damned thing out) would apply whether preparing for the next man , or the next stab. Bowen may also be trying (and failing) to "twist and rip". ...And a bit farther along in TSS, we're shown that..

even after practising, the trainees basically fall apart when Dunk tests their progress - armed with only a wooden sword, himself.

Our non-rangers might not think of it, but if they had a knightly instructor (and one who knew Jon's skills).. he might think it would be wise to interfere with Jon's sword ( not wood but Valyrian steel) ... just as insurance.

Four on One..

When Iron Emmett spied him, he raised a hand and combat ceased. “Lord Commander. How

may we serve you?”

“With your three best.”

Emmett grinned. “Arron. Emrick. Jace.”

Jon has practiced against multiple opponents, so I don't think he'd be thrown by being attacked by 3 or 4 stewards. We've seen him take severe blows, and still manage to come back. When something does throw him , e.g. glamoured Mance , we see him analysing the situation as he goes ,so he won't be surprised twice.

Notably, we've seen his berserker-like strength and a sort of battle lust (triggered by anger) a number of times ... e.g. , lifting Thorne off his feet by the throat .. yanking the head-decorated spear out of the frozen ground ..or in his bout with Emmett in ASoS - he's losing and is about to yield , when one blow stuns him and manages to trigger an old anger. It ends by 2 men having to pull Jon off a dazed and beaten Emmett. Jon had not even heard him yield. ..The conspirators' sneak attack , which Jon must see as an underhanded betrayal - not just of himself , but of the NW and it's purpose - is bound to raise his ire, I would think.

ETA: also from Barristan's "Kingbreaker" chapter...

Blood welled from Khrazz’s wounds. That only seemed to make him wilder.

..and that's Khrazz, who we haven't seen have any "berserker" moments...

As Jon whispers, "Ghost", is he spontaneously reaching for Ghost , trying to call to him .. or is it because he suddenly sense's Ghost's presence , as we've seen before ? ... Is Ghost already there ?

We've seen Summer lend strength to Bran and Jon possibly lend strength to Ghost when Ghost was injured by the eagle..will this sharing of strength come into effect ? Ghost was already angry, himself. Will this figure into the equation ?...

Lots of people have speculated that perhaps Mel went to free Ghost when she left the shieldhall. I suspect she'd be preoccupied by the claim of Stannis' death and be hurrying to try to check on that bit of news , but she might have gone past Jon's quarters , or she might have sent Devan ( mentioned earlier ) to open the door , even though he's afraid of Ghost.

Horse and Rory, who took over from Mully and Flea before the shieldhall, were with Jon ( I believe that left no-one outside Jon's door ). There are plenty of candidates that might have let Ghost out. ... One of my favourites would be feisty little Dryn. Jon made Dryn his page, but he hasn't been mentioned since. Dryn ought to have access to Jon's quarters , could have a number of reasons to be there, and could have purposely ( or unwittingly ) freed Ghost .

After steeping myself in this for months on end I realise just how much is ambiguous or outright misleading . With "Ghost," being Jon's last word in ADWD , I almost expect Jon's next chapter to open with , ..."to me! " , and to see Jon get up off the ground in true berserker form and rip that sword free of it's scabbard. I wouldn't have thought so on first reading, but now it's definitely a plausible possibility, IMO.

I think it's for Jon to actually lead those wildlings somewhere , not to have gained their loyalty and respect only to lose it immediately.. by being bested by the likes of Marsh & co.

I've long suspected Morna, the warrior witch might have some special skill with healing wounds. It was the daughter of a wise woman who once treated Mance, when he was suffering from really severe blood loss.

That's the best sense I can make of the attack for now, fully realising that there are so many characters whose movements are unaccounted for, that a radical re-assessment may be in order later on.

pretty good work, i like it thanks!

[Hank of House Hutton]

Arrrrrrrr. If they're not severe then why did he pass out and display symptoms of shock?

this is an assumption that he passed out. We dont know what happened to him, he could of only felt cold and then something happens, he could of warged into ghost there and his body still be alive and the cold he felt was the cold on ghosts body. It's too open ended to say he passed out from it. and he displayed symptoms of shock, because well he was shocked. He's shocked his own "friends" just turned on him, and he did just get stabbed multiple times. no surprise he's shocked all of this is happening.

i just feel it's left too open ended and not enough evidence to declare him dead

[BalerionTheCat]

I think the purpose of Jon death is to release him of his vow to the NW. While he his a NW brother, he can do very little.

In the next book, I expect to see him on a pyre and the remaining NW brothers chanting "and now his watch is ended".
But he cannot be definitely dead, his arc is not finished. I expect something like Dany: still alive and healed the next morning when the embers are cold.

I suppose there will be a nasty battle between wildlings and the NW brothers with Bowen Marsh, enough blood to do miracles.

Not necessarily proves to anyone that he is a legitimate Targaryen or AAZ.

[Alejandro Gaydou]

I think the OP's analysis doesn't look closely enough. I've posted this elsewhere, but here goes again.

A Foreshadowing and The Attack

From the scene between Jon and Sam (AFfC ), when the raven pecked through Sam's glove :

“Did that wretch break the skin?”

Sam eased the books down and peeled off his glove. “He did.” He felt faint. “I’m bleeding.”

“We all shed our blood for the Watch. Wear thicker gloves.”

In that same scene, as Sam enters Jon's quarters - ... he made his way past the forge with its anvil and bellows. A shirt of ringmail rested on his (Jon's) workbench, half-completed.

This scene raises some questions ... Does it foreshadow the assassination attempt on Jon , and does it hint at hidden information? - I think we can draw a definite parallel. For openers, Jon's attackers certainly can be described as "wretches" .

Is Sam hurt ? - Yes , but not seriously. He's bleeding ,and he "feels faint" ( just as Jon seems to later, when pain washes over him ) ... Sam handles ravens all the time , and apparently has a way with them. Mormont's raven can be a nuisance , but is generally regarded affectionately by those who come in close contact with it. - e.g. while Jon calls it a wretch ,or a thief , or swats at it , he also lets it read over his shoulder, ;) and strokes it's feathers. - Sam may be equally wounded ( if not moreso ) by the fact the bird "turned on him". ... Will this prove to be similar to the attack on Jon? ..Probably not as much as we would like , but I'm betting - to a degree - yes.

Does Jon go on to heed his own advice to "wear thicker gloves" ? .. Was that Chekov's shirt of ringmail on his workbench ? .. Although he doesn't seem to expect Marsh to go as far as attacking him , he must have felt vulnerable going to address the wildlings ( Some had earlier accepted his terms with cold, dead eyes , while fingering their sword hilts.).. He couldn't be certain he'd win them all over, and from some of them, violence might be expected , after hearing the letter .. moreso than from Bowen .

I think it's reasonable to assume Jon would take extra precautions in his attire . The following playful banter between Jon and Val says it would only be common sense..

“This queen of yours must be fierce if the legs of grown men give out beneath them when they meet her. Should I have dressed in mail instead of wool and fur? These clothes were given to me by Dalla, I would sooner not get bloodstains all over them.”

“If words drew blood, you might have cause to fear. I think your clothes are safe enough, my

lady.”

I suspect Jon may have been wearing mail during all the scenes where he's put himself at risk since the shirt was mentioned ; places where he knew he could be facing more than mere words ... e.g. Mole's town, the vows at the grove, Tormund's camp, perhaps the meeting atop the wall, bringing in Tormund's people, and now in the shieldhall.

We All Make Assumptions , Including Jon

Jon notices Bowen with Wick, Lew and Alf in the shieldhall. When he sees Wick and Bowen attack , he'd naturally assume that the other two would follow suit ..That's 4, count 'em, 4 knives that he'd be expecting. This might explain the ambiguous "he never felt the fourth knife". It was expected, but perhaps never came.. Jon may make other assumptions as well and since we're reading his POV , we're tempted to do the same. Here's the scene :

When Wick Whittlestick slashed at his throat, the word turned into a grunt. Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin. He cut me. When he put his hand to the side of his neck, blood welled between his fingers. “Why?”

“For the Watch.” Wick slashed at him again. This time Jon caught his wrist and bent his arm back until he dropped the dagger. The gangling steward backed away, his hands upraised as if to say, Not me, it was not me. Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown stiff and clumsy. Somehow he could not seem to get the sword free of its scabbard.

Then Bowen Marsh stood there before him, tears running down his cheeks. “For the Watch.” He

punched Jon in the belly. When he pulled his hand away, the dagger stayed where he had buried it.

Jon fell to his knees. He found the dagger’s hilt and wrenched it free. In the cold night air the

wound was smoking. “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him. Stick them with the pointy end.

When the third dagger took him between the shoulder blades, he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow. He never felt the fourth knife. Only the cold …

Firstly , I want to point out that it seems longer when we read the description than if we were watching the action take place, so there may be very little time between individual strikes. Some things that are described separately or consecutively ( a word , a thought , a feeling, a movement) can overlap , or even happen completely simultaneously.( e.g. - “Ghost,” he whispered. Pain washed over him.) .. Also , Jon may be experiencing that phenomenon where things seem to happen in slow motion in times of crisis... The whole attack above would probably play out in no more than 30 seconds , and that might be generous.

When I count these things out in my head matching movement to "one elephant , two elephant", I go at a methodical pace so as to err on the side of caution. ( Yes, that's how obsessed I am ). ..As a former dancer (in another century), piecing the choreography of the scene together has always intrigued me.

And speaking of choreography , Bowen & co seem to have previously blocked out who would strike where ( we see 3 potentially lethal locations).. They had their script ready (For the watch ) and each struck at a separate kill point. ..They couldn't have predicted Jon's final plan or the reception he'd received , and I don't think there was time to work out who would stab where in the brief time since they left the shieldhall. ..So, I think only the time of the attack was spur of the moment. The choreography is visible , they just didn't know they would be performing it quite so soon.

Even if they rehearsed beforehand , off-page, they couldn't have rehearsed in that environment , so their timing and cues could easily be off. (In a dance routine , this means people can bump into each other , may not meet where they're supposed to , lifts may be awkward, or not get off the ground at all, etc. ... and that's without members of the audience potentially getting in the way.)

And secondly ,as always, GRRM's use of language should be scrutinized.

Breakdown

Wick- He moves first and must be very nervous. The wound he inflicts is superficial . Though slightly wounded ,Jon disarms Wick on his second attempt. Wick's body laguage expresses it wasn't his idea.. It wasn't me = it wasn't my idea. He was "only following orders" ?

Jon's reactions in response to the first strike are quick , as they usually are. But when he can't draw Longclaw, he assumes his fingers have "grown stiff and clumsy" ( even though his exercise to prevent this has become habitual, and we've never seen it happen to him before ). It doesn't occur to Jon that someone might have tampered with his sword. ..His attempt to draw Longclaw does not go on for a long time at all, because Bowen wouldn't be hanging back , perhaps giving Jon time to succeed...

Bowen - Steps in front of Jon, and connects with a stab described as a "punch" . But when he "pulled" his hand away, the knife stayed put ..Jon wrenched it free..

If Bowen was just letting go of the knife , there would be no need to "pull his hand away" . The use of "pull" suggests that his intention was to pull out the knife ( perhaps ready for another stab).. His "pull" combined with Jon's "wrench" suggests the knife got caught on something. ...(Ringmail ?..caught on the way out, or the way in ?)

Where is that ringmail shirt ? .. How much boiled or studded leather or other layers is Jon wearing ? - We don't know, so we don't know how deep the wound went . Bowen "buried" the knife, but how much of it was buried in Jon , how much in layers of clothing ? The more shallow the wound , the less likelihood of serious damage. It may have pierced the muscle wall, but we don't know by how much, or if it cut any organs. We know it did cut , since the wound was "smoking" , and we know it went straight in ( punch) ... didn't slash , rip or tear, as far as we know ( and that's a good sign ). - But , if the knife had been covered in Jon's blood should it not be smoking, too ?

When Jon thinks "Stick them with the pointy end" , he can see the knife - this could mean that only the pointy end had blood on it.

3rd Attacker ... Left Hand Lew /Alf ? - Jon "falls to his knees" just after Bowen's "punch" (potentially , seconds or split seconds after). If Lew/Alf was already moving in for the attack (and it only makes sense that he would be), it would be very difficult to get a good angle on the strike. .. As he's attacking, the target suddenly drops - considerably lower than expected - as Jon falls to his knees. Whether stabbing underhand or overhand, there's a strong possibility of hitting the target with a fist (overhand) or forearm / elbow (underhand) rather than sticking Jon with "the pointy end".

Bowen's "punch" is actually a stab. Knowing the way GRRM likes to play with words, it's possible that the intended stab from the "third dagger", was in fact more of a punch.

Jon can't see this 3rd attacker , but he has just been struck at twice with knives , so he'd naturally assume it was a "third dagger" that " took him between the shoulder blades" His reaction, though, - he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow - is equally compatible with having the wind knocked out of him and being pushed forward as a result of the blow...And the phrase, "When the third dagger took him..." , doesn't actually tell us when.

The previous sentence was "Pain washed over him." If that was still occurring, which seems probable , Jon would be more easily pushed forward. But .. if he was wearing ringmail , even if the dagger connected, it would very possibly be deflected if it was coming at less than a direct angle.

That Jon thinks - Stick them with the pointy end. -is , I think , at least a hint to us to consider whether the individual pointy ends actually stuck.

4th Attacker - Never acted ,IMO . I think it's most likely that he either backed out or was stopped - because Jon doesn't see a fourth knife ( he's face first in the snow) and never felt a fourth knife ( though he was obviously expecting one) and we are still in Jon's thoughts.

Pain washed over him..

A thin red slash marked the eastern horizon where the sun might soon appear. It reminded Selmy of the first blood welling from a wound. Often, even with a deep cut, the blood came before the pain. ..( The Queen's Hand , ADWD)

Jon's first wound was "a thin red slash", but we know it wasn't deep, it was only a graze. Blood "welled" between his fingers..but the first mention of pain comes with "pain washed over him", near he end of the scene. This must be the pain from Wick's slash ( or at least include it), so it has to tell us the whole attack was extremely quick and I don't trust that Wick, Bowen or the other suspected attackers (unpracticed as they are) could have been as focused or accurate as they needed to be ,to get the job done .. in a fluid situation, taking place in the middle of chaos.

A thin red slash marked the eastern horizon where the sun might soon appear. Thin red slash = Wick's slash... the sun might soon appear = the sun son might rise .. Might ? Well, if the "son" (of Rhaegar / Ned) is like the "sun" , it can't be prevented from rising.

Only the cold...

Some people think this is where Jon dies . Some people think he loses consciousness , but it's possible he doesn't even do that. GRRM trails off with - "..." . Maybe this sticks out to me because , while I do that a lot , GRRM doesn't. Just quickly searching through ADWD, he really only uses it as a pause in someone's speech or thoughts, which he then promptly finishes off , or when one character is interrrupted by another.

Devilish as he can be , it may be that GRRM hasn't only left everything in mid-action , but in mid-sentence .. mid-thought. :D :D

Other Considerations

As noted, Jon's attackers are not primarily fighters.. but they seem to have been coached as to where each one should strike to make a potentially lethal hit . Here are some interesting tid-bits from The Sworn Sword :

Dunk and Ser Bennis are trying to train Ser Eustace's smallfolk for battle.. Ser Bennis gives instructions on where to strike to kill..

" The belly and the throat are best, I find.".. "Right there's the heart , that will do the job as well. Trouble is, the ribs is in the way. The belly's nice and soft. Guttings slow, but certain.".. ..."Now if some fool goes and turns his back on you, put your point between his shoulderblades or through his kidney. That's here. They don't live long once you prick 'em in the kidney."

...and a bit farther on..

the recruits began practising their spear work as Bennis bellowed at them "Stick and twist and rip it free. Stick and twist and rip, but get the damned thing out! You'll be wanting it soon enough for the next one .."

Throat, belly and between the shoulder blades..Would a fourth knife have been planned for the kidney? Seems like a good bet... And notice all jon's attackers avoid those pesky ribs in front of the heart...Have these inexperienced fighters also been instructed by a knight ?

I imagine knife work and spear work share some methods.The same reasoning ( get the damned thing out) would apply whether preparing for the next man , or the next stab. Bowen may also be trying (and failing) to "twist and rip". ...And a bit farther along in TSS, we're shown that..

even after practising, the trainees basically fall apart when Dunk tests their progress - armed with only a wooden sword, himself.

Our non-rangers might not think of it, but if they had a knightly instructor (and one who knew Jon's skills).. he might think it would be wise to interfere with Jon's sword ( not wood but Valyrian steel) ... just as insurance.

Four on One..

When Iron Emmett spied him, he raised a hand and combat ceased. “Lord Commander. How

may we serve you?”

“With your three best.”

Emmett grinned. “Arron. Emrick. Jace.”

Jon has practiced against multiple opponents, so I don't think he'd be thrown by being attacked by 3 or 4 stewards. We've seen him take severe blows, and still manage to come back. When something does throw him , e.g. glamoured Mance , we see him analysing the situation as he goes ,so he won't be surprised twice.

Notably, we've seen his berserker-like strength and a sort of battle lust (triggered by anger) a number of times ... e.g. , lifting Thorne off his feet by the throat .. yanking the head-decorated spear out of the frozen ground ..or in his bout with Emmett in ASoS - he's losing and is about to yield , when one blow stuns him and manages to trigger an old anger. It ends by 2 men having to pull Jon off a dazed and beaten Emmett. Jon had not even heard him yield. ..The conspirators' sneak attack , which Jon must see as an underhanded betrayal - not just of himself , but of the NW and it's purpose - is bound to raise his ire, I would think.

ETA: also from Barristan's "Kingbreaker" chapter...

Blood welled from Khrazz’s wounds. That only seemed to make him wilder.

..and that's Khrazz, who we haven't seen have any "berserker" moments...

As Jon whispers, "Ghost", is he spontaneously reaching for Ghost , trying to call to him .. or is it because he suddenly sense's Ghost's presence , as we've seen before ? ... Is Ghost already there ?

We've seen Summer lend strength to Bran and Jon possibly lend strength to Ghost when Ghost was injured by the eagle..will this sharing of strength come into effect ? Ghost was already angry, himself. Will this figure into the equation ?...

Lots of people have speculated that perhaps Mel went to free Ghost when she left the shieldhall. I suspect she'd be preoccupied by the claim of Stannis' death and be hurrying to try to check on that bit of news , but she might have gone past Jon's quarters , or she might have sent Devan ( mentioned earlier ) to open the door , even though he's afraid of Ghost.

Horse and Rory, who took over from Mully and Flea before the shieldhall, were with Jon ( I believe that left no-one outside Jon's door ). There are plenty of candidates that might have let Ghost out. ... One of my favourites would be feisty little Dryn. Jon made Dryn his page, but he hasn't been mentioned since. Dryn ought to have access to Jon's quarters , could have a number of reasons to be there, and could have purposely ( or unwittingly ) freed Ghost .

After steeping myself in this for months on end I realise just how much is ambiguous or outright misleading . With "Ghost," being Jon's last word in ADWD , I almost expect Jon's next chapter to open with , ..."to me! " , and to see Jon get up off the ground in true berserker form and rip that sword free of it's scabbard. I wouldn't have thought so on first reading, but now it's definitely a plausible possibility, IMO.

I think it's for Jon to actually lead those wildlings somewhere , not to have gained their loyalty and respect only to lose it immediately.. by being bested by the likes of Marsh & co.

I've long suspected Morna, the warrior witch might have some special skill with healing wounds. It was the daughter of a wise woman who once treated Mance, when he was suffering from really severe blood loss.

That's the best sense I can make of the attack for now, fully realising that there are so many characters whose movements are unaccounted for, that a radical re-assessment may be in order later on.

Your analysis is well thought out and well argued! The part with "Ghost... to me!" gave my wife and me goosebumps!

[iDooom]

First off, I'll say that I don't put much weight on "foreshadowing" because we really don't know what they foreshadow, which character they apply to, or whether they actually are examples of foreshadowing.

In that same scene, as Sam enters Jon's quarters - ... he made his way past the forge with its anvil and bellows. A shirt of ringmail rested on his (Jon's) workbench, half-completed.

Chainmail has hundreds of rings and takes a ton of time to make, and Jon probably doesn't even know how. He ain't a blacksmith.

Breakdown

Wick- He moves first and must be very nervous. The wound he inflicts is superficial . Though slightly wounded, Jon disarms Wick on his second attempt. Wick's body laguage expresses it wasn't his idea.. It wasn't me = it wasn't my idea. He was "only following orders" ?

I'm not convinced that the wound was so minor.

Jon's reactions in response to the first strike are quick , as they usually are. But when he can't draw Longclaw, he assumes his fingers have "grown stiff and clumsy" ( even though his exercise to prevent this has become habitual, and we've never seen it happen to him before ). It doesn't occur to Jon that someone might have tampered with his sword. ..His attempt to draw Longclaw does not go on for a long time at all, because Bowen wouldn't be hanging back , perhaps giving Jon time to succeed...

Did he use superglue or what? When did Bowen do it? You don't think Jon keeps his sword on him while he's outside at all times?

Also, Jon had many options besides drawing his sword and fighting. He could have grabbed Bowen's arm (as he did against Wick), sidestepped, punched, kicked, etc. Worst case scenario, Jon could have simply ran. The fact that he didn't do anything while Bowen hung back suggests that Jon's overall abilities were impaired, perhaps due to blood loss.

Bowen - Steps in front of Jon, and connects with a stab described as a "punch" . But when he "pulled" his hand away, the knife stayed put ..Jon wrenched it free..

If Bowen was just letting go of the knife , there would be no need to "pull his hand away" . The use of "pull" suggests that his intention was to pull out the knife ( perhaps ready for another stab).. His "pull" combined with Jon's "wrench" suggests the knife got caught on something. ...(Ringmail ?..caught on the way out, or the way in ?)

Maybe Bowen is just shocked at what he has just done. Might be the first time he's stabbed someone.

Where is that ringmail shirt ? .. How much boiled or studded leather or other layers is Jon wearing ? - We don't know, so we don't know how deep the wound went . Bowen "buried" the knife, but how much of it was buried in Jon , how much in layers of clothing ? The more shallow the wound , the less likelihood of serious damage. It may have pierced the muscle wall, but we don't know by how much, or if it cut any organs. We know it did cut , since the wound was "smoking" , and we know it went straight in ( punch) ... didn't slash , rip or tear, as far as we know ( and that's a good sign ). - But , if the knife had been covered in Jon's blood should it not be smoking, too ?

The dagger is not described at all. It could have simply been buried deep in Jon's flesh.

When Jon thinks "Stick them with the pointy end" , he can see the knife - this could mean that only the pointy end had blood on it.

??

3rd Attacker ... Left Hand Lew /Alf ? - Jon "falls to his knees" just after Bowen's "punch" (potentially , seconds or split seconds after). If Lew/Alf was already moving in for the attack (and it only makes sense that he would be), it would be very difficult to get a good angle on the strike. .. As he's attacking, the target suddenly drops - considerably lower than expected - as Jon falls to his knees. Whether stabbing underhand or overhand, there's a strong possibility of hitting the target with a fist (overhand) or forearm / elbow (underhand) rather than sticking Jon with "the pointy end".

Bowen's "punch" is actually a stab. Knowing the way GRRM likes to play with words, it's possible that the intended stab from the "third dagger", was in fact more of a punch.

Jon can't see this 3rd attacker , but he has just been struck at twice with knives , so he'd naturally assume it was a "third dagger" that " took him between the shoulder blades" His reaction, though, - he gave a grunt and fell face-first into the snow - is equally compatible with having the wind knocked out of him and being pushed forward as a result of the blow...And the phrase, "When the third dagger took him..." , doesn't actually tell us when.

The previous sentence was "Pain washed over him." If that was still occurring, which seems probable , Jon would be more easily pushed forward. But .. if he was wearing ringmail , even if the dagger connected, it would very possibly be deflected if it was coming at less than a direct angle.

Are a weak punch and a paper-cut so painful that Jon is completely incapable of fighting back and falls to his knees?

Your points about Bowen and co. being inexperienced and Jon easily defeating three or more rangers actually helps my argument. I find it hard to believe that three weaklings could knock an uninjured Jon to the ground without Jon being able to fight back properly.

That Jon thinks - Stick them with the pointy end. -is , I think , at least a hint to us to consider whether the individual pointy ends actually stuck.

Or, Jon is thinking about what he last said to Arya because he knows he's dying.

4th Attacker - Never acted, IMO. I think it's most likely that he either backed out or was stopped - because Jon doesn't see a fourth knife ( he's face first in the snow) and never felt a fourth knife ( though he was obviously expecting one) and we are still in Jon's thoughts.

Some people think this is where Jon dies . Some people think he loses consciousness , but it's possible he doesn't even do that. GRRM trails off with - "..." . Maybe this sticks out to me because , while I do that a lot , GRRM doesn't. Just quickly searching through ADWD, he really only uses it as a pause in someone's speech or thoughts, which he then promptly finishes off , or when one character is interrrupted by another.

Devilish as he can be , it may be that GRRM hasn't only left everything in mid-action , but in mid-sentence .. mid-thought. :D :D

Or it could be mid-thought as he abruptly finds himself in Ghost.

Jon has practiced against multiple opponents, so I don't think he'd be thrown by being attacked by 3 or 4 stewards. We've seen him take severe blows, and still manage to come back. When something does throw him , e.g. glamoured Mance , we see him analysing the situation as he goes ,so he won't be surprised twice.

Notably, we've seen his berserker-like strength and a sort of battle lust (triggered by anger) a number of times ... e.g. , lifting Thorne off his feet by the throat .. yanking the head-decorated spear out of the frozen ground ..or in his bout with Emmett in ASoS - he's losing and is about to yield , when one blow stuns him and manages to trigger an old anger. It ends by 2 men having to pull Jon off a dazed and beaten Emmett. Jon had not even heard him yield. ..The conspirators' sneak attack , which Jon must see as an underhanded betrayal - not just of himself , but of the NW and it's purpose - is bound to raise his ire, I would think.

This is why it's so surprising that Jon falls facedown to the ground after being hit twice. It's definitely not due to him freaking out...

Lots of people have speculated that perhaps Mel went to free Ghost when she left the shieldhall. I suspect she'd be preoccupied by the claim of Stannis' death and be hurrying to try to check on that bit of news , but she might have gone past Jon's quarters , or she might have sent Devan ( mentioned earlier ) to open the door , even though he's afraid of Ghost.

Horse and Rory, who took over from Mully and Flea before the shieldhall, were with Jon ( I believe that left no-one outside Jon's door ). There are plenty of candidates that might have let Ghost out. ... One of my favourites would be feisty little Dryn. Jon made Dryn his page, but he hasn't been mentioned since. Dryn ought to have access to Jon's quarters , could have a number of reasons to be there, and could have purposely ( or unwittingly ) freed Ghost .

It's probably too late for Ghost to do anything to save Jon.

After steeping myself in this for months on end I realise just how much is ambiguous or outright misleading . With "Ghost," being Jon's last word in ADWD , I almost expect Jon's next chapter to open with , ..."to me! " , and to see Jon get up off the ground in true berserker form and rip that sword free of it's scabbard. I wouldn't have thought so on first reading, but now it's definitely a plausible possibility, IMO.

Yeah... no.

[bemused]

iDoom .. your arguments make little sense to me.. I'm just going to cut and paste your comments for response.

iD : Chainmail has hundreds of rings and takes a ton of time to make, and Jon probably doesn't even know how. He ain't a blacksmith.

Jon's quarters are at the back of the armoury.It doesn't take a blacksmith to put pre-made links together , or to make adjustments to pre-made mail shirt to make it fit better. Any fighter has basic knowledge of how his arms and armour are constructed and enough knowledge to perform maintenance , before he'd have to take it to a blacksmith. The armoury would have shirts, sections of mail and spare links . At least the rangers would have to have such supplies on hand on an ongoing basis.

iD : Did he use superglue or what? When did Bowen do it? You don't think Jon keeps his sword on him while he's outside at all times?

The first question isn't serious.. Bowen didn't do it. Ghost snapped at Mully , who was inside Jon's quarters while Jon was with Selyse. Jon may not have taken his sword with him. Selyse expects to be shown the same respect as Stannis while he's away , and Stannis doesn't allow Jon to wear his sword in Stannis' quarters.

iD: Also, Jon had many options besides drawing his sword and fighting. He could have grabbed Bowen's arm (as he did against Wick), sidestepped, punched, kicked, etc. Worst case scenario, Jon could have simply ran. The fact that he didn't do anything while Bowen hung back suggests that Jon's overall abilities were impaired, perhaps due to blood loss.

Well, you didn't design this attack, GRRM did .. and you're obviously not paying attention to how quickly it all happens.

iD: Maybe Bowen is just shocked at what he has just done. Might be the first time he's stabbed someone.

I don't see how this relates to what I wrote.. are you saying he's shocked , so he tries to pull the knife away ? this makes no sense to me. I think he'd be more likely to just let go of the thing..

iD :The dagger is not described at all. It could have simply been buried deep in Jon's flesh.

The belly is soft..there would be no need to "wrench it free" if it was only in flesh.

iD : Are a weak punch and a paper-cut so painful that Jon is completely incapable of fighting back and falls to his knees?

Please don't resort to the juvenile tactic of trying to put words in my mouth. Did I say the punch was weak ? No. Did I say paper cut ? No.

But GRRM said about Wick's slash : Jon twisted from the knife, just enough so it barely grazed his skin.

ID : Your points about Bowen and co. being inexperienced and Jon easily defeating three or more rangers actually helps my argument. I find it hard to believe that three weaklings could knock an uninjured Jon to the ground without Jon being able to fight back properly.

I disagree .. I've said I think Jon was winded.I think they've had instruction from the real brains behind the attack - Alliser Thorne. But even so, I think it will turn out that their inexperience will be shown to have caused them to botch the job.

iD : Or, Jon is thinking about what he last said to Arya because he knows he's dying.

and.. Or it could be mid-thought as he abruptly finds himself in Ghost.

These are two widely held opinions with which I tend to disagree.. We have to wait and see if GRRM settles it.

iD : This is why it's so surprising that Jon falls facedown to the ground after being hit twice. It's definitely not due to him freaking out...

It's not over yet. GRRM has left us in mid-scene . That's why we're all speculating.

iD : It's probably too late for Ghost to do anything to save Jon.

I can't agree.

and .. Yeah... no.

You're entitled to your opinion.

[Sir Bronn]

Melisandre will bring him back

[Dorian Martell]

Or he is not dead and her dark arts combined with a sacrifice of king's blood will heal his still living and not dead body

[Kikajon]

HE IS NOT DEAD.

YET.

[myufa]

One way or another Jon will still be an important character, whether inside Ghost, or otherwise. Maybe he warged into Ghost or Mormont's raven and BR/Bran will help him unwarg into his body, recovered by Mel

[Squab]

I think the purpose of Jon death is to release him of his vow to the NW. While he his a NW brother, he can do very little.

In the next book, I expect to see him on a pyre and the remaining NW brothers chanting "and now his watch is ended".

But he cannot be definitely dead, his arc is not finished. I expect something like Dany: still alive and healed the next morning when the embers are cold.

I suppose there will be a nasty battle between wildlings and the NW brothers with Bowen Marsh, enough blood to do miracles.

Not necessarily proves to anyone that he is a legitimate Targaryen or AAZ.

I like this

I dont think it will be next book. Arya and tyrion were a whole book between chapters at their last cliffhangers.

[The Bastard of Walton]

I don't believe Jon's body will be dead, but he will be in a comatose state for the majority of WOW. His POV chapters will involve both seeing the world via Ghost and dreams. I think Bran will bring him back to consciousness after showing him who he is, meaning Rhaegars son & AA (Half of AA).

So I don't believe he will die at al.

[Consigliere]

As of his last chapter in ADwD, Jon is dying and not dead.

Bemused has provided a much better analysis of the scene than the OP.

[dbunting]

More and more I do not think Jon is dead at all. He very well could have survived and just be ready for his counter attack. The text clearly states, just grazed him, referring to his neck wound. The stab to the belly, can just be painful and survivable. The fact that he didn't pull the dagger out seems odd.

There are just too many loose ends for him to be dead dead. I absolutely do not want him in Ghost for the rest of the series, too much fantasy aspect for me. If he is just there for a little while I could live with that.

[myufa]

Maybe in his pyre, long claw will ignite and become lightbringer and he'll be reborn from the ashes as azor ahai