Would Walder Frey have betrayed Robb if he hadn't married Jeyne?

[aryagonnakill#2]

I've seen a few people in this thread say that "If Robb were loosing down the line" or "If the situation became hopeless". While we all know that some things changed afterwards, at the time they did in fact appear hopeless. 60k Tyrells plus however many Lannisters left, Stannis all but defeated in everyone else's minds, large parts of the north including Moat Cailin still under control of the Ironborn and Winterfell sacked.

If Tarly turned north with the Tyrell forced there wasn't shit Robb could have done.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

GrrM was talking about the Red Wedding when he spoke of the savage form, as is plain from the next sentence, as I've already said. I would be cautious suggesting other people have not read the SSM given your interpretation.

Sure. Your point? Would it be less savage than the Red Wedding if the corpses hadn't been desecrated? Or if the guests inside where killed and the ones outside in the tents left alive? Or just Robb, Edmure and Cat? Where is the limit?

Nevermind that the topic of the thread is betrayal in a more general sense.

[Chaircat Meow]

Sure. Your point? Would it be less savage than the Red Wedding if the corpses hadn't been desecrated? Or if the guests inside where killed and the ones outside in the tents left alive? Or just Robb, Edmure and Cat? Where is the limit?

Nevermind that the topic of the thread is betrayal in a more general sense.

This is ludicrous. Murdering people because they insulted you is by definition 'savage.' I'm pointing out that GrrM is saying what happened, namely, the Red Wedding, was motivated by the dishonour done to the Twins. That rules out the argument just the corpse desecration, or the massacre outside, were the result of the insult. If only some brutality was the result of the insult GrrM would have said the Red Wedding was 'partly motivated,' by the dishonour, as Walder would clearly have had another reason as well. So it is bizarre to think all GrrM was saying there is that maybe Frey wouldn't have done the corpse desecration.

[marsyao]

After Blackwater a number of senior and level-headed Freys give voice to their fears that the war is lost, telling Roose Bolton that Robb must seek terms. If they were thinking it, there's no reason to believe Walder Frey wasn't. The dishonouring of Roslin was two tonnes of jet fuel on a blaze that was already spreading.

If Robb marries Walder Frey's daughter, then House Frey would provide a Queen to the Great North Rebellion, that position would make it almost impossible for House Frey receive pardon from the iron thrones, that means Freys would be on the same sinking ship with Robb, they either manage to save themselves together or go down together. Considering the situation right before the Red Wedding, if Freys and Robb sticked together, they would have a very good chance to retake the North, so Roose Bolton would not dare to make a move too,with the combine might of North and Freys, with help from river Lords, Robb still would not be able to win the war, but at least he would be in a position to ask a reasonable good terms.

[marsyao]

I've seen a few people in this thread say that "If Robb were loosing down the line" or "If the situation became hopeless". While we all know that some things changed afterwards, at the time they did in fact appear hopeless. 60k Tyrells plus however many Lannisters left, Stannis all but defeated in everyone else's minds, large parts of the north including Moat Cailin still under control of the Ironborn and Winterfell sacked.

If Tarly turned north with the Tyrell forced there wasn't shit Robb could have done.

Right before the red wedding, Robb was losing the war, but his situation was far from hopless, if he could, with Frey's help, took back the North, then he could at least ask a good term to end the war.

[WTF's a Lommy]

Walder Frey had been nothing but loyal to Robb. House Frey was probably his best ally. If he would have had a daughter involved as his queen I think it's highly unlikely that he betrays Robb. Tywins whole plan was for the Westerlings to seduce Robb and turn the Freys against him. Then he would reach out to an insulted Walder Frey and convince him to kill Robb and his banner men and end the war. Had Robb not taken the bait Tywin would have moved on to his next plot.

[Fire Eater]

I recommend this thread by Ramsay Gimp.

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/102753-house-freys-main-motive-for-the-red-wedding/

The Red Wedding was wholly vengeance on Frey's part. No realpolitick involved, other than as a little sauce. He didn't need to do what he did to get into Tywin's good books again.

If you read that SSM more closely

We know that Roose Bolton had already taken Walda Frey to wife before Robb married Jeyne Westerling. Does this then mean that Walder Frey had already planned to ally himself with Bolton to murder Robb before Robb's marriage betrayal, or was his anger towards Robb and his reasoning towards his own family as to why Robb had to be killed more than just a pretext, and the genuine reason for the Red Wedding?

"What if" questions are impossible to answer with any certainty... knowing old Lord Walder's character, it is likely he would have searched for some way to disentangle himself from a losing cause sooner or later, but his desertion would likely have taken a less savage form. The Red Wedding was motivated by his desire to wash out the dishonor that was done him...

It wasn't solely vengeance, but ever since he heard of the BoBW with the Tyrells allying with the Lannisters, he wanted to get out of Robb's camp. This is a man who always wants to be on the winning side.

[Chaircat Meow]

If you managed to pay attention to that SSM you provided

And if you could read rather than be rude and insulting ...

It wasn't solely vengeance, but ever since he heard of the BoBW with the Tyrells allying with the Lannisters, he wanted to get out of Robb's camp. This is a man who always wants to be on the winning side.

you'd see GrrM says Walder would have deserted, probably, in the end, but that the RW was to wash out the dishonour done to him. He noticeably didn't say the RW was partly motivated by the desire to be on the winning side. He said the side switching would have kicked in, probably, but down the line.

The lack of reading comprehension a large number of posters display wrt this SSM is mind boggling.

[Bright Blue Eyes]

Edited.

[Fire Eater]

And if you could read rather than be rude and insulting ...

you'd see GrrM says Walder would have deserted, probably, in the end, but that the RW was to wash out the dishonour done to him. He noticeably didn't say the RW was partly motivated by the desire to be on the winning side. He said the side switching would have kicked in, probably, but down the line.

The lack of reading comprehension a large number of posters display wrt this SSM is mind boggling.

Sorry, didn't mean to. Edited that part.

Walder Frey is a guy who always wants to be on the winning side just by looking at his history. GRRM clearly stated that he would have betrayed Robb sooner or later, even if the betrothal hadn't been broken as you mentioned. That is what this thread is about, the betrayal. The RW aspect was out of pride on his part.

Condescension is uncalled for.

[DavosBolton]

He would not betray Robb if Robb didn't break his promise.

Walder Frey was extremely generous in his support, sending massive reinforcements to Robb, and he would have continued to do so. The Freys bled as much for Robb as his most leal followers did, with Stevron Frey and others dying in service to his cause.

[Chaircat Meow]

"There are like a million wrong-way drivers on the road today. Honestly, I haven't seen one driver driving in the right direction yet."

I take it you agree with Fire Eater then, in thinking GrrM actually said the RW was partly motivated by the desire to be on the right side.

Let's try again then, shall we. Here is the relevant bit of the SSM.

''We know that Roose Bolton had already taken Walda Frey to wife before Robb married Jeyne Westerling. Does this then mean that Walder Frey had already planned to ally himself with Bolton to murder Robb before Robb's marriage betrayal, or was his anger towards Robb and his reasoning towards his own family as to why Robb had to be killed more than just a pretext, and the genuine reason for the Red Wedding?

"What if" questions are impossible to answer with any certainty... knowing old Lord Walder's character, it is likely he would have searched for some way to disentangle himself from a losing cause sooner or later, but his desertion would likely have taken a less savage form. The Red Wedding was motivated by his desire to wash out the dishonor that was done him...''

Note that GrrM was not actually asked a 'what if' question. He was asked whether Jeynegate was merely a pretext, and if Walder had plotted betrayal all along. He answered it as though it were a 'what if' question though, and we can, I hope, assume the hypothetical here is a scenario in which Robb didn't marry Jeyne.

All of GrrM's answer, until the last line, is his view on what would have probably happened in that scenario. Only the last line speaks to what did happen. And that line tells us the RW was motivated by Walder's need to wash out the dishonour done to him. So my assertion that the RW was all about vengeance is simply the literal reading of what GrrM said. The scenario where Walder betrayed Robb for political reasons never even eventuated, according to GrrM.

[James Arryn]

He would not betray Robb if Robb didn't break his promise.

Walder Frey was extremely generous in his support, sending massive reinforcements to Robb, and he would have continued to do so. The Freys bled as much for Robb as his most leal followers did, with Stevron Frey and others dying in service to his cause.

It's not really a matter of generosity. Once he tied his house to the Stark cause, he had a very selfish motive for doing w/e he could to help it succeed. He was gambling his house's future on Robb winning...hedging at that point makes no sense, far safer to not get involved at all...and therefore had to back it to the hilt.

Once everything down south was resolved quicker than anyone expected and the 2 most powerful regions allied, while the Vale clearly showed no intent on balancing the odds, then it became sunk cost. I think he sticks with a Robb even as a longshot so long as the alternative is survival at best, but I think he jumps at the first opportunity to switch teams AND remain a player.

[Chaircat Meow]

If you read that SSM more closely

If this is your 'edited version' it is still wrong. The SSM says exactly what I said it said.

[marsyao]

It's not really a matter of generosity. Once he tied his house to the Stark cause, he had a very selfish motive for doing w/e he could to help it succeed. He was gambling his house's future on Robb winning...hedging at that point makes no sense, far safer to not get involved at all...and therefore had to back it to the hilt.

Once everything down south was resolved quicker than anyone expected and the 2 most powerful regions allied, while the Vale clearly showed no intent on balancing the odds, then it became sunk cost. I think he sticks with a Robb even as a longshot so long as the alternative is survival at best, but I think he jumps at the first opportunity to switch teams AND remain a player.

Well, you have to admit if his daughter already married Robb, then it would be too late for him to back away from Robb's cause, he would be one of the major leader of the rebellion, second only to Robb himself! He would have no other option but keep fighting, and as I said, Robb no longer has the chance to win, but if the alliance between North and House Frey holded, there would be still a good chance to settle the war with terms

[Fire Eater]

If this is your 'edited version' it is still wrong. The SSM says exactly what I said it said.

I was referring to editing out the unintended rudeness. The reasons behind RW still wasn't wholly vengeance as you stated, but also out of wanting to leave Robb's cause.

[Chaircat Meow]

I was referring to editing out the unintended rudeness. The reasons behind RW still wasn't wholly vengeance as you stated, but also out of wanting to leave Robb's cause.

That's your opinion but the fact remains it is not what the SSM says.

[Robb_Warged]

I think this should be answered somewhere in the remaining story

[Lee-Sensei]

...like putting an arrow between Robb's shoulderblades, a dagger in his ribs or poison in his drink. Most likely at the same time as Edmund, the Blackfish and Cat suffer unfortunate accidents as well. But no Red Wedding as such.

Why do you think that and how would they pull it off?

[Bright Blue Eyes]

All of GrrM's answer, until the last line, is his view on what would have probably happened in that scenario. Only the last line speaks to what did happen. And that line tells us the RW was motivated by Walder's need to wash out the dishonour done to him. So my assertion that the RW was all about vengeance is simply the literal reading of what GrrM said. The scenario where Walder betrayed Robb for political reasons never even eventuated, according to GrrM.

The way the RW played out was down to Jeynegate. Not the basic betrayal. Note the disentangling himself from Robb bit in that SSM.

Why do you think that and how would they pull it off?

Because that's what Tywin told Tyrion he intended Walder to do. Of course he was bullshitting him, but it was a believable lie because it made sense for everybody involved. The smart way to go on about betraying Robb.

As to the how, that's impossible to answer without going into fanfiction. Too many details. It would have been impossible to predict the specifics of the Purple Wedding beforehand either.