Could Robert have conquered Dorne after the Rebellion?

[markg171]

Another thread got me wondering this after getting into some debates about the subject so I thought I'd open the debate up to everybody.

So after Mace Tyrell bent the knee to Ned, Dorne was the only kingdom out of the Seven who hadn't formally submitted to Robert. The North, the Riverlands, the Vale, the Westerlands, the Stormlands, and the Reach had all formally submitted to Robert's rule. All but Dorne.

But Dorne had been smashed at the Trident after having fielded 10,000 men for that battle. Now most kingdoms seem to be able to field 15,000-20,000 troops when called upon from what we've seen (Tywin fielded 12,000 to sack KL on short notice, Robb fielded 18,000 when he marched south), and our Dornish characters have repeatedly said that Dorne cannot field as many troops as the other kingdoms. So 10,000 troops seemingly IS their army, and said army was smashed at the Trident.

Now if Dorne's army was seemingly smashed, Dorne should be wide open for conquest. But could Robert have conquered them if Jon Arryn hadn't peacefully brought them into Robert's country when he returned Lewyn's bones?

Pros for being able to conquer Dorne:

Robert already smashed Dorne's army on the grounds of his choosing (the Trident). So the Dornish castles were lightly garrisoned at this point as they'd sent their warriors to battle and those warriors had lost. That's a far cry from the past conquerors, who faced Dorne at it's fullest strength, on their own grounds. Robert would be facing them at their weakest, on their grounds. They'd still have the advantage of being prepared for the weather and knowing the terrain, but they wouldn't be able to do more than harry him as they wouldn't have the strength to threaten the type of army that he could field as he had 6 Kingdoms backing him and they didn't even have one. They couldn't actually engage him so Robert would be able to just keep marching until every castle had bent the knee, thus completing a conquest.

Furthermore, Ned got through the Prince's Pass if he reached the TOJ and Starfall. That indicates that either no one stopped him because the guardians of the pass were too weak to do so, or that they let him through for whatever reason. So if Ned, who only had a minimum 6 members (that we know of) could pass through possibly without contest, an army wouldn't be stopped either. Robert would have been able to march an army through the Prince's Pass without being contested, or at least by being able to conquer it fairly easily.

Cons for being able to conquer Dorne:

We hear about the fact that Robert never set foot in Dorne during his reign despite the fact that he'd broken their army at the Trident, and Jon Arryn had peacefully brought them into the country after Robert was already king. That says that while Robert's government might have accepted Dorne into the country, they still never trusted them. Or possibly it means nothing. Robert never visited the north despite Ned being one of his staunchest bannermen, so Robert not visiting a possible enemy might mean nothing.

Coincidentally, a newly released feature for the S4 of GOT DVD about Robert's Rebellion narrated by Oberyn says that if Robert ever set foot in Dorne he'd have lost that foot. Hyperbole maybe, but there seems to have been an understanding that Robert might be king, Dorne would rise if they could, both in the shows and the books.

Robert's men would also be unprepared for the Dornish climate. That seems to have been a problem for the former would be conquerors as they would roast during the day and freeze at night

So, could Robert have conquered Dorne after his Rebellion if they hadn't submitted peacefully to Jon Arryn? I think he could have. It might have taken longer than his conquest of the other portions of the kingdom, but Dorne simply wouldn't have been able to stop him. They'd have bled him yes, but they couldn't have stopped him at that moment as they ultimately lacked the normal troops.

[Bluetiger]

He could have but it would be a bloody war ( as every conquest of Dorne) and it would weaken his new realm.

[Lee-Sensei]

Another thread got me wondering this after getting into some debates about the subject so I thought I'd open the debate up to everybody.

So after Mace Tyrell bent the knee to Ned, Dorne was the only kingdom out of the Seven who hadn't formally submitted to Robert. The North, the Riverlands, the Vale, the Westerlands, the Stormlands, and the Reach had all formally submitted to Robert's rule. All but Dorne.

Nitpicking, but the Iron Islands didn't either.

[markg171]

Nitpicking, but the Iron Islands didn't either.

The Iron Islands actually did (despite not being an actual kingdom of the Seven).

Balon's father, upon hearing that Robert won the Trident, immediately launched assaults on the Reach. He died in the attempt to appease Robert and aid the Rebellion, but the Iron Islands sided with Robert after the Trident. Balon, as the new lord, withdrew his troops after the death of his father, but the Islands had sided with Robert.

[Mithras]

I don't think all the Dornishmen were killed in the Trident. It looks like the moment Robert killed Rhaegar, Rhaegar's troops threw their weapons and ran away.

Dorne could have been conquered in great expense but it would be a folly. The rebels were tired of wars. The fair cause of the rebellion would be stained if they marched on Dorne. And so on.

[Petyr's Little Finger]

It would have been a bloody war but I think Robert could have done it. Dorne was fairly weakened by the loss of the troops at the trident. Still it was much better to have Dorne peacefully bend the knee.

[markg171]

I don't think all the Dornishmen were killed in the Trident. It looks like the moment Robert killed Rhaegar, Rhaegar's troops threw their weapons and ran away.

Dorne could have been conquered in great expense but it would be a folly. The rebels were tired of wars. The fair cause of the rebellion would be stained if they marched on Dorne. And so on.

The Dornish had already broken before Robert killed Rhaegar

“Lord Lyonel Corbray is well disposed toward my rule,” said Petyr, “but his brother goes his own way. On the Trident, when their father fell wounded, it was Lyn who snatched up Lady Forlorn and slew the man who’d cut him down. Whilst Lyonel was carrying the old man back to the maesters in the rear, Lyn led his charge against the Dornishmen threatening Robert’s left, broke their lines to pieces, and slew Lewyn Martell. So when old Lord Corbray died, he bestowed the Lady upon his younger son. Lyonel got his lands, his title, his castle, and all his coin, yet still feels he was cheated of his birthright, whilst Ser Lyn... well, he loves Lyonel as much as he loves me. He wanted Lysa’s hand for himself.”

When Robert killed Rhaegar, the armies stopped fighting. So the Dornish must have broken before Robert killed Rhaegar, as they can't break when the fight's already over.

[Lord Sapna]

The iron islands is definitely a part of the 7 kingdoms OP.

It's something that I think has fairly caused confusion but I think it's down to at the time of Aegon's conquest there were 7 Kingdoms. North, Vale, Dorne, Stormlands, Westerlands, Reach and The Iron Islands and Riverlands ruled by the islands from Harrenhall. Aegon split them into two and the crownlands makes nine, but the Iron Islands are still part of Westeros.

[markg171]

The iron islands is definitely a part of the 7 kingdoms OP.

It's something that I think has fairly caused confusion but I think it's down to at the time of Aegon's conquest there were 7 Kingdoms. North, Vale, Dorne, Stormlands, Westerlands, Reach and The Iron Islands and Riverlands ruled by the islands from Harrenhall. Aegon split them into two and the crownlands makes nine, but the Iron Islands are still part of Westeros.

The Iron Islands are a part of Westoros true, but they're not one of the main kingdoms at the time of Robert's Rebellion. The 6 Lord Paramount's are: Stark, Lannister, Arryn, Tully, Baratheon, Tyrell. The Seventh major ruler is the Prince of Dorne. That's 7 kingdoms.

Now, not only that, but the Iron Islands did submit to Robert. They fought for him against the Reach after the Trident.

[James Arryn]

I tend to think the allegiance he'd acquired was too fragile to tempt by getting his forces caught up in a war of attrition far away from his capital. I think he'd be forced to pull a Toyotomi and forcibly keep his enemies on the general staff, and I think that + Dorne makes for a very problematic c&c.

As for the war in isolation, the issue is always less about the taking than the keeping. Dorne is a bit like the North if it was always winter; so much terrain is anti-humanity that numbers work against you half the time. The locals know where the water holes are hidden, which ones are likely to be poisoned, etc.

I'll say this: it's probably not the kind of war Robert was built to fight. He would have to operate counter-intuitively. I actually think many of his potential commanders (Arryn, Ned, Stannis, Tywin) are better fits, but I am very unsure if Robert would be content with that. If he tries to use 'see ball hit ball' tactics as he uses in all other engagements we have seen, I think it plays right into the standard Dornish strategy.

[Red Tiger]

The 7 kingdoms are

The Stormlands

Dorne

Riverlands and Isles

Vale

North

Westerlands

Reach

[Mithras]

The Dornish had already broken before Robert killed Rhaegar

When Robert killed Rhaegar, the armies stopped fighting. So the Dornish must have broken before Robert killed Rhaegar, as they can't break when the fight's already over.

Those events might be simultaneous. We do not know the details.

[Mithras]

As I pointed above, the rebels were fighting for their lives against a mad king. After the Trident and the Sack of KL, what would be their justification for the conquest of Dorne?

[markg171]

The 7 kingdoms are

The Stormlands

Dorne

Riverlands and Isles

Vale

North

Westerlands

Reach

At the time of Robert's Rebellion, the Tullys are Lord Paramount of the former kingdom. And the Tullys sided with Robert. Robert had 6/7 kingdoms as he had all 6 Lord Paramounts and was only missing the Prince of Dorne.

And besides, the Greyjoys fought for Robert after the Trident. So after the Sack and when Robert was on the throne, they had subjected themselves to Robert's rule, making them part of Robert's kingdom. Furthermore, Balon cannot later rebel for the Greyjoy Rebellion, without having been a part of Robert's kingdom in the first place.

As I pointed above, the rebels were fighting for their lives against a mad king. After the Trident and the Sack of KL, what would be their justification for the conquest of Dorne?

Robert cannot be the king of the Seven Kingdoms, without having all Seven Kingdoms behind him no? Jon peacefully brought Dorne under Robert's rule by returning Lewyn's bones and negotiating with Doran. But if he hadn't or negotiations failed, it would have been war as Robert wouldn't have been the king of Westoros without Dorne. Robert needs Dorne to be the true king.

[Lee-Sensei]

The Iron Islands actually did (despite not being an actual kingdom of the Seven).

Balon's father, upon hearing that Robert won the Trident, immediately launched assaults on the Reach. He died in the attempt to appease Robert and aid the Rebellion, but the Iron Islands sided with Robert after the Trident. Balon, as the new lord, withdrew his troops after the death of his father, but the Islands had sided with Robert.

The Islands are certainly one of the Seven Kingdoms.

No they didn't. Balons father was planning on it, but died before he could. So all it ended up being was standard IB raiding. That's why only came 6 years after in the GJ Rebellion.

The reborn Kingdom of the Iron Isles had lasted less

than a year. Yet when Balon Greyjoy was brought before

King Robert in chains, the ironman remained defiant. “You

may take my head,” he told the king, “but you cannot name

me traitor. No Greyjoy ever swore an oath to a Baratheon.”

Robert Baratheon, ever merciful, is said to have laughed at

that, for he liked spirit in a man, even in his foes. “Swear one

now,” he replied, “or lose that stubborn head of yours.”

[markg171]

The Islands are certainly one of the Seven Kingdoms.

No they didn't. Balons father was planning on it, but died before he could. So all it ended up being was standard IB raiding. That's why only came 6 years after in the GJ Rebellion.

The reborn Kingdom of the Iron Isles had lasted less

than a year. Yet when Balon Greyjoy was brought before

King Robert in chains, the ironman remained defiant. You

may take my head, he told the king, but you cannot name

me traitor. No Greyjoy ever swore an oath to a Baratheon.

Robert Baratheon, ever merciful, is said to have laughed at

that, for he liked spirit in a man, even in his foes. Swear one

now, he replied, or lose that stubborn head of yours.

The Islands are part of the 9 current regions. They are not represented nor ruled by one of the Lord Paramount who control the seven different kingdoms. They are not one of the Seven kingdoms. Just like the Crownlands has no Lord Paramount and are not one of the seven kingdoms.

As for your quote, Balon's father sided with Robert. He died in a battle to help win Robert his crown. Not before or after. Did he swear to him? No as Robert was far away. Did Balon when he became Lord Greyjoy? No. But the Greyjoys fought for Robert during the Rebellion, no matter how briefly.

And IIRC we get a quote from an Ironborn later that bending the knee is better than being dead as if you bend the knee you can rise again to strike at your enemy. Balon bent the knee when his time came

[James Arryn]

Robert cannot be the king of the Seven Kingdoms, without having all Seven Kingdoms behind him no?

Not sure why you think that. Aegon dates his reign from Oldtown, when neither the North nor Dorne had submitted, nor most of the IB. If Daemon BF wins at Redgrass, does Daeron retroactively Un-become King from the point Daemon declared himself? It's all pretty fluid; I don't think there are solid parameters.

[Lee-Sensei]

The Islands are part of the 9 current regions. They are not represented nor ruled by one of the Lord Paramount who control the seven different kingdoms. They are not one of the Seven kingdoms. Just like the Crownlands has no Lord Paramount and are not one of the seven kingdoms.

As for your quote, Balon's father sided with Robert. He died in a battle to help win Robert his crown. Not before or after. Did he swear to him? No as Robert was far away. Did Balon when he became Lord Greyjoy? No. But the Greyjoys fought for Robert during the Rebellion, no matter how briefly.

And IIRC we get a quote from an Ironborn later that bending the knee is better than being dead as if you bend the knee you can rise again to strike at your enemy. Balon bent the knee when his time came

Nope. The Iron Islands is one of the Seven combined with the Riverlands. When Aegon took over, the Riverlands were ruled by IB,

Yes. When his time came... 6 years later.

[Lykaios Wolfsheart]

Short answer: No.

Long Answer:

Basically, although a lot of Dorne's main strength had been defeated, that essentially means nothing in this kind of society. Unless Dorne were absolutely desperate to keep the Targaryens on the Throne, there is no way they sent all of their soldiers North to fight Robert. In this kind of society, a high lord is not expected to send even half of their men (just look at the North when Robb called the banners, he could have had maybe 40,000 men if the high lords had offered more of their men, but instead they hardly had half of that. A lot of this is due to logistics of course, but its also simply because the laws in this kind of world would not enforce that a banner-men offer every one of his swords when called; they have to consider a defensive strategy if the war goes badly, and they need to keep a strength as reinforcements if required, as well as to deal with brigands and whatnot). So Dorne definitely had enough men to at least defend their castles. But Dorne has another, much more effective strategy: Dorne itself.

Dorne pretty much has its very own gate mad eup of mountains, valleys and difficult pass-ways. All that is required of them is to form up and defend those points, and I imagine an army would bleed itself dry trying to get through. Yes, eventually they may get through, but they would lose far too many men. The Targaryens found this out the hard way several times. Even when Dorne was "conquered" it didn't remain that way for very long at all.

In conclusion, Robert would probably never break Dorne by force, and even if he did, it would cost him so much that his "victory" would taste too sour for his supporters and lose him much more.

[TallTyrion]

Robert wouldn't need to "conquer" Dorne the way the Targaryens tried to.

All he would need to do is sail to the Greenblood and sack the Planky Town and take Sunspear.

Upon hearing about the marriage pact Barristan says had Robert have known he would have done just that. Given the naval and military superiority Robert had I don't think that would be hard to pull off.