Heresy 153

[JNR]

Yes, this is always a possibility. But just because people fall one way, doesn't mean it must be the result of confirmation bias though.

For example, in your two examples, #1 has literally no other supporting data (and depending on timing may well not have been available knowledge to the KG). It is literally an astonishing new 'fact' that isn't even hinted at anywhere else and goes against 'normality'.

So is #2, in terms of the specific location. Nowhere in the five novels can we find any statement or hint of where Lyanna was when she was "abducted," let alone confirmation that it was near Harrenhal.

Just accepting that location based on the World book's standalone account seems quite as much a leap as accepting that Aerys named Viserys his heir (which Kingmonkey seemed to conclude was well supported).

Now, if you mean the premise that Rhaegar fell upon her at all, sure -- that's of course suggested overtly by Robert, who seems to have gone the extra mile or two in believing Rhaegar fell into her.

I really disliked everything about that scene. Few moments on the show have deviated from the books so deliberately without purpose as that one. Two-eyed Bloodraven, Jojen dead, Leaf tossing firebombs, surrounded by creatures alien to the Ice and Fire universe.

Well, it was... engaging to watch, and TV is a visual medium, so I can understand the concession of the skele-wights... although even there I would have stuck with the existing compromises and simply used fast and agile regular wights. (They've never really been, on the show, the shuffling plodders we find on The Walking Dead and in the canon.)

The Bloodraven and Jojen bits seemed needless, Leaf's fireballs seemed like dropping a turd on the history of Westeros, and there were subtler things that bugged me from a continuity standpoint. Like the way the cave seemed to be lit via natural light from above... and the way the entrance to it called attention to itself.

In the books, it was plausibly hidden, a little gap up one anonymous hill among many thousands in a frozen north, with nothing visual to distinguish it or lead wildlings or anyone else to it. And Bloodraven was far underground.

[Black Crow]

WW pic from the 2016 Calendar...Why is Royce kneeling?

https://m.facebook.com/711719625570706/photos/a.711736302235705.1073741828.711719625570706/773308416078493/?type=1&theater

Don't know, but the walker appears to be an interesting mix of the Piccacio take which GRRM has admired and the show version.

[Black Crow]

Two Others in the back are wearing cloaks???

Don't see that one as a glitch. In the first place given the emphasis on the first walker's physical appearance, the business of looking like twins is far more likely to refer to that rather than them all being identical in every way. Secondly the walker about to do for Ser Waymar seems to have a swirly sort of cloak, making him a bit more ethereal and probably representing the artist's attempt to render an impression of the stealth armour, which would in turn suggest the cloaks worn by his brothers in the background are for the same purpose of concealment rather than keeping them cosy warm.

[Black Crow]

Busted :smug: As much as it might support my case a bit(Popsicle looked Sam dead in the eyes),i remain weary when it comes to the show's depiction of certain things.Also in that scene i didn't see a legion of WWs.I saw a lot of wights and "exactly" two WWs among them on horseback.

There might even have been a third, but either way its just an example of cut and paste CGI

[Black Crow]

The in-text version is a bit ambiguous,when Bran went out as Summer he noticed that more and more of them cam.Even Crows with blue eyes in the trees.I'm still a bit iffy on that whole scene being some type of means to keep them from leaving.But hen Bran ent out as Summer more Wights came,even CrowWights.I'm stil under the impression that some watching is going on.

Its a good point. As the dead can't come in the fact that their numbers keep increasing does suggest that they are sitting there to prevent someone coming out.

In any case the theory as originally discussed rather rested on Coldhands' behaviour - Meera you'll recall was very suspicious of the way he appeared to be leading them a circuitous route and kept emphasising both the danger and the imminence of attack and was very insistent that the cave was the only way in. Therefore when the first wight appeared there was an immediate run for the cave without thinking about it. Now it may just be me but in certain circles I used to move all of that stank of a set-up. And then oddly enough, when considering the whole Bloodraven/Kurtz Heart of Darkness parallels we find that the attack on the pilgrims as they and Marlow approached the Outer Station was actually set up by Kurtz.

[Black Crow]

I enjoyed the scene, but it was unexpected in terms of the Skelton soldiers, I'm guessing the show is saying a battle was waged there in the past and the undead rather than guarding the cave, want in it. So at a guess it was an army of men, presumably killed by the CotF when they were more numerous?

If that were the case I'd be inclined to suspect they would have been all over the Fist :devil:

[Eira Seren]

Yeah, that's an interesting bit, though I'm not sure it was GRRM talking; I think that's how Ned remembers the dream.

And Ned doesn't even believe the Popsicles or wights exist:

So the line about "blue as the eyes of death" seems to suggest that Ned's unconscious, dreaming mind is aware of truths his conscious mind isn't.

It seems a little out there, but consider that GRRM is developing the same premise every time he gives a character a Meaningful Dream (something that's happened to everybody from Jaime to, far more significantly, Jon). I think it's a pretty nice touch.

That one deserves some kind of B) any plans to write it up?

I think we've got to chuck that up to echoes of a bigone era in fantasy.We got Princess Bride from Oberyn why not Jason and the Argonauts.Oh and a little Dragon ball Z or Street Fighter.Whatever you want to call that Fireball thingy Leaf threw. A branch on fire would not do...no,no not at all.

Absolutely not!

To be perfectly honest, combining Leaf's Holy Hand Grenade of Antioch with the portrayal of Bloodraven I was irresistably reminded of Monty Python and the Holy Grail

Eira should work this into a graphic; I recall she did another one revealing a truth about the Wall as revealed by a shot from Holy Grail.

You gents asked for it. (and only because Heretics have a very special place in my heart).

[Voice]

You gents asked for it. (and only because Heretics have a very special place in my heart).

LOL Awesome :cheers:

[Voice]

Well, it was... engaging to watch, and TV is a visual medium, so I can understand the concession of the skele-wights... although even there I would have stuck with the existing compromises and simply used fast and agile regular wights. (They've never really been, on the show, the shuffling plodders we find on The Walking Dead and in the canon.)

The Bloodraven and Jojen bits seemed needless, Leaf's fireballs seemed like dropping a turd on the history of Westeros, and there were subtler things that bugged me from a continuity standpoint. Like the way the cave seemed to be lit via natural light from above... and the way the entrance to it called attention to itself.

In the books, it was plausibly hidden, a little gap up one anonymous hill among many thousands in a frozen north, with nothing visual to distinguish it or lead wildlings or anyone else to it. And Bloodraven was far underground.

It was engaging, but for me much of the engagement was due to frustration. My wife and son are book-loyalists as well and we were all gaping at eachother like someone set the house on fire when that episode first aired. Now, it's just comedy, and we enjoy the farce. The cave and BR both were completely underwhelming. I've seen more dramatic scenes unfold in a high school auditorium.

Not to harp on this all day, but the more I think about it, it seems like D&D are far more comfortable making drastic concessions and changes at the expense of the northern story than they are with the ambitions of southroners and the game. No Coldhands, Jon knows Bran is alive, the Black Gate is a mere sallyport, even Lady Stoneheart by extension, as she was Lady Stark. All thrown into the garbage heap... Yet, we have Lady Oleanna, Ser Dontos, Qyburn, and likely very soon, unGregor. They have been far truer to the tale south of the Neck in my opinion.

[King Tyrion XX]

So I guess in season 5 Daario eats the locusts and dies?

[corbon]

So is #2, in terms of the specific location. Nowhere in the five novels can we find any statement or hint of where Lyanna was when she was "abducted," let alone confirmation that it was near Harrenhal.

No direct statement, no.

But the first response to the abduction we hear of is Brandon at or near Riverrun, close to Harrenhal.

And we are told that Whent and Dayne were with Rhaegar at the time - Harrenhal being Whent's 'backyard'.

And we know that the Starks were beginning to congregate at Riverrun, not far from Harrenhal, for Brandon and Catelyn's wedding.

And we also know that Catelyn's mother was a Whent, from Harrenhal.

All of those are timely connections, if very indirect. So when we are told that the abduction was close to Harrenhal its new data that fits, if circumstantially, with old data, so we have no reason not to accept it.

And of course, there is nothing to suggest any other location.

Just accepting that location based on the World book's standalone account seems quite as much a leap as accepting that Aerys named Viserys his heir (which Kingmonkey seemed to conclude was well supported).

As you see above its not "accepting that location based on the world book's standalone account", its accepting it because the standalone account fits in, indirectly, with a number of relevant supporting data points and has no challenges.

In contrast, Kingmonkey's argument, or at least as much as I have found of it, (in two parts here and here), IMO, is based less on data points from the text, and more on his personal analysis. Part I seems to rest entirely on assuming that Aegon definitely died before Aerys, which I think is a dubious conclusion from the limited textual data, given the general confusion inherent in a sack, and then assuming that that minor point of technicality really mattered to people who largely weren't there and just see it all as a collective single event that they don't know much about except the results. Part 2 is entirely based on TWOIAF and thus wholey tainted with the 'bias or not? question. And I'm not sure I'd agree with it anyway. If Aerys really did literally name Viserys as his explicit heir then Viserys is a more important playing piece than just a little boy who is only in line for the throne as a default survivor. Robert and the other rebels, including Jon Arryn, would have had a far greater need to deal with him as a potential rallying point in the future. But if its not true and no one really believes it, they can treat Viserys as a left-over, but at the same time its a polite fiction that helps the Baratheon Dynasty to loosen the publicTargaryen loyalties of the Martells.

Not that I intend to fight Kingmonkey on his opinion here, just differentiating the manner of its support.

In summary, I don't see any factual data points from outside TWoIaF that support the new notion of Viserys being Aerys' heir, only dubious (IMO of course) analysis of political factors. And I do see challenges to that idea, both politically and 'normally' ('normal' succession rules being Aerys/Rhaegar/Aegon/any later legitimate son of Rhaegar/Visery).

Whereas I see clear, clean, factual data points that support, indirectly, the idea of Rhaegar 'taking' (however that might be accepted) Lynna somewhere close to Harrenhal and nothing at all against it.

[King Tyrion XX]

No direct statement, no.

But the first response to the abduction we hear of is Brandon at or near Riverrun, close to Harrenhal.

And we are told that Whent and Dayne were with Rhaegar at the time - Harrenhal being Whent's 'backyard'.

And we know that the Starks were beginning to congregate at Riverrun, not far from Harrenhal, for Brandon and Catelyn's wedding.

And we also know that Catelyn's mother was a Whent, from Harrenhal.

All of those are timely connections, if very indirect. So when we are told that the abduction was close to Harrenhal its new data that fits, if circumstantially, with old data, so we have no reason not to accept it.

And of course, there is nothing to suggest any other location.

As you see above its not "accepting that location based on the world book's standalone account", its accepting it because the standalone account fits in, indirectly, with a number of relevant supporting data points and has no challenges.

In contrast, Kingmonkey's argument, or at least as much as I have found of it, (in two parts here and here), IMO, is based less on data points from the text, and more on his personal analysis. Part I seems to rest entirely on assuming that Aegon definitely died before Aerys, which I think is a dubious conclusion from the limited textual data, given the general confusion inherent in a sack, and then assuming that that minor point of technicality really mattered to people who largely weren't there and just see it all as a collective single event that they don't know much about except the results. Part 2 is entirely based on TWOIAF and thus wholey tainted with the 'bias or not? question. And I'm not sure I'd agree with it anyway. If Aerys really did literally name Viserys as his explicit heir then Viserys is a more important playing piece than just a little boy who is only in line for the throne as a default survivor. Robert and the other rebels, including Jon Arryn, would have had a far greater need to deal with him as a potential rallying point in the future. But if its not true and no one really believes it, they can treat Viserys as a left-over, but at the same time its a polite fiction that helps the Baratheon Dynasty to loosen the publicTargaryen loyalties of the Martells.

Not that I intend to fight Kingmonkey on his opinion here, just differentiating the manner of its support.

In summary, I don't see any factual data points from outside TWoIaF that support the new notion of Viserys being Aerys' heir, only dubious (IMO of course) analysis of political factors. And I do see challenges to that idea, both politically and 'normally' ('normal' succession rules being Aerys/Rhaegar/Aegon/any later legitimate son of Rhaegar/Visery).

Whereas I see clear, clean, factual data points that support, indirectly, the idea of Rhaegar 'taking' (however that might be accepted) Lynna somewhere close to Harrenhal and nothing at all against it.

Id like to see you demonstrate that.

[MaesterSam]

Just rewinding to this and apologies for doing so,

If Lyanna, the bloody bed and all that stuff are generally assumed to mean childbirth, what if there's another explanation, say she had the baby at Starfall, nicely and healthy etc etc, then fell ill with say Greyscale or some other Westeros horrid disease, could the ToJ be somewhere that she was isolated rather than a secret birthplace.

I think we've unpicked the issues with servants and wet nurses if Lyanna had the baby at the TOJ, we know we can play with timescales a little, but a remote tower in the mountains?

Where better to take a leper or diseased person? She gets a horrible treatment. Ned after his parley/fight/cup of coffee with the Kingsguard then goes and puts her out of her misery. Ned's duty. A coverup of what happened, after all you don't want to be known as a kinslayer, even if she had some bloody pox that was incurable. Bones of the others Ned travelled with weren't returned as maybe they got it too. Howard Reed's 'Magic' was maybe herbal? 'Chew this green thing, Ned'

Just throwing it out there, rather than having Lyanna have wanton sex with an other.

Hmmm this is a very interesting idea. Rather than keeping Lyanna safe or imprisoned, she was being quarantined.... I think I like it! Granted, we have no direct evidence, and presumably it wasn't anything too contagious as we know Ned was with her when she died and didn't catch it.

I am also intrigued by the suggestion of some 'treatment' leading to all that blood in the room. Because there appears to be too much blood for a simple (or even a complicated) childbirth. Every single mention of Lyanna's end involves blood and roses. Blood and roses. Not only in that one fever dream, but every memory of Ned's. And the crypt dream he has, where she is wearing the roses and her eyes weep blood. The bloody stones. The dress spattered with gore. Every time, every mention. So much blood.

Unless it was an emergency c-section. Performed by Ned after she begged him? :devil:

I wish I could be so confident. For instance, two particular points of discussion might be

1. Aerys named Viserys his heir prior to the Sack, and that was public knowledge the TOJ KG would have had

2. Prince Rhaegar fell upon Lyanna Stark not ten leagues from Harrenhal.

I think one could easily make a case either way that either of these ideas are true (or false). In fact, I've read extended analysis from Kingmonkey in the RLJ thread suggesting the first one was true (and I thought well of Kingmonkey's reasoning).

In Heresy, Snowfyre has recently suggested that Rhaegar might never have fallen on Lyanna -- that that was simply a tale Robert put forth that became rubberstamped by maesters following his elevation to the Iron Throne. That too could be correct.

But I am not confident in either case. I don't feel like these two new ideas from the World book have added anything except more ?s, when what we all want is more ., or possibly even !s.

Different form of unreliability. Now it's not about maesters sucking up, it's about them not knowing what the hell they're talking about, and citing references of countless other maesters who not only conflict with each other, but collectively had no clue.

So what often tends to happen with World book content is confirmation bias on a mass scale; fans go through it, cherry-pick whatever seems to support their theories, and then build arguments in the forums on that basis. RLJers for instance will tend to believe item 2 above as if it were gospel, and deny item 1 like a cheese moon.

(And this isn't a judgment, because I've caught myself doing much the same just based on bits that are pasted on the site.)

Fair enough. I will not deny that the info in the WB shouldn't be trusted too completely. And the cherry picking is certainly a problem.

On the other hand, GRRM hopefully didn't just publish a book full of lies - many of which would automatically be disproven once the later books come out. This would serve no purpose except to insult fans that have stuck with him for 20+ years (some of them anyway, I can't claim to be among them).

The problem is, almost every "fact" we learn in the WB or in the other books is a "fact" remembered by some character. Who either heard it from someone else or read it in a book. And books are written by maesters. Even the annals in Castle Black appear to have been manipulated, or at least had important content removed. And with the addition of the unreliable narrator, even events that we witness as we read the books can now be questioned...

So while you are absolutely correct in not trusting WB info, it's a slippery slope that can quickly lead to us questioning everything at all times. Which of course is what we do here in Heresy, so it all works out. :cool4:

Yeah, the fireball grenades smacked of old-school, D&D magic-user fireball spells, to me.

And I like the look of that calendar Other! Here's a higher-res version.

Look at that long silvery hair and those blue eyes! Clearly, we have been going about this all wrong. Rhaegar = NK = father of all popsicles. :D

[The Snowfyre Chorus]

I think the fact that we are aware of the bias - clearly in favor of Houses Lannister and Baratheon- allows us to identify reports that are likely to be manipulated/false.

I agree with this to an extent. We can see certain biases at work in the World book, and that should help us identify relevant questions related to reliability and accuracy of its content. Some reports do seem likely to have been "shaped" by Maester Yandel to please the powers-that-be... and in a few cases we may be able to "fact-check" against accounts we've read from another POV in ASOIAF. But in the end JNR is right that, where the World book differs from information in the main series, all we really get is more questions.

...when we are told that the abduction was close to Harrenhal its new data that fits, if circumstantially, with old data, so we have no reason not to accept it... And of course, there is nothing to suggest any other location.

I think the lack of contradictory information is key. Though doubting the story is not necessarily unreasonable, there is certainly a glaring absence of competing explanations in the text for Lyanna's whereabouts at the time she disappeared.

You gents asked for it. (and only because Heretics have a very special place in my heart).

And Leaf raised the holy hand grenade up on high, saying, "Old gods, bless this Thy hand grenade that with it Thou mayest blow Thine enemies (and Thine Jojens) to tiny bits... in Thy mercy." And the gods did grin and the people did feast upon the fish, and acorns, and rats, and goat cheese, and long pork, and "foes," and a paste of weirwood seeds flavored with small chunks of Joj—..." :lol:

[aDanceWithFlagons]

He does kneel towards the end. Though his sword should appear shattered in the artwork...

When the blades touched, the steel shattered.

A scream echoed through the forest night, and the longsword shivered into a hundred brittle pieces, the shards scattering like a rain of needles. Royce went to his knees, shrieking, and covered his eyes. Blood welled between his fingers.

The watchers moved forward together, as if some signal had been given. Swords rose and fell, all in a deathly silence. It was cold butchery. The pale blades sliced through ringmail as if it were silk. Will closed his eyes. Far beneath him, he heard their voices and laughter sharp as icicles.

Yep. The sword not shattered and no damage to Royce led me to believe it was pre-fight so I thought this was a bit of a strange rendition. I believe it is supposed to represent Royce just before he is hacked up by the gang.

I do like the drawering. The Other is better than the stills I have seen from the show.

[Matthew.]

Without primary witness POVs, we can't say with absolute certainty that Lyanna disappeared near Harrenhal, but the text has done nothing to suggest alternatives.

We learn from Catelyn that Brandon ran off on the way to his wedding when he'd learned of Lyanna's abduction, and Jaime confirms that Brandon arrived at the Red Keep and demanded that Rhaegar "come out and die." All of this is in line with Ned's statement that it's Brandon's wolf's blood that got him killed.

If all of the Starks were coming south for Brandon's wedding, this give us a reason for why Lyanna would be in the Riverlands at the time of her disappearance. It's not a great deal of information, but it's enough, even without the WB blurb, to suggest that Lyanna was abducted in the Riverlands, and it's the only proposal with any grounding in the text--which doesn't make it true, but it does mean it has better textual standing than any alternatives.

[JNR]

Its a good point. As the dead can't come in the fact that their numbers keep increasing does suggest that they are sitting there to prevent someone coming out.

Or they're drawn to life, like all wights, and life is in the cave. But they can't get into the cave because it's warded, because those inside the cave would prefer not to be slaughtered. Thus the wights tend to collect outside the cave.

Also, as many have pointed out, just prior to that Coldhands goes out of his way to warn Bran et al that looks can be deceiving and he's sure there's some sort of nasty surprise waiting for them. If the idea were to shock the Scoobies into running into the cave, he more or less defeated that plan by warning them.

That one deserves some kind of B) any plans to write it up?

You mean a walkthrough of various dreams? Interesting idea. Some would merit the time. Jaime's dream of himself and Brienne facing the KG ghosts probably does.

And nice work on the Holy Hand Grenade. Nobody links Python and GRRM like you.

[JNR]

Not to harp on this all day, but the more I think about it, it seems like D&D are far more comfortable making drastic concessions and changes at the expense of the northern story than they are with the ambitions of southroners and the game

Insightful. To be fair, GRRM does spend most of his time down south, so they may see themselves as just mirroring his priorities. And they make huge adjustments there too -- consider how utterly Brienne's storyline from AFFC has been altered.

But really, the North is very interesting and merits more time and energy, at least IMO. Especially if they want to have any hope of matching GRRM's effects at the end of the series. The devil really is in the details.

No direct statement, no.

But the first response to the abduction we hear of is Brandon at or near Riverrun, close to Harrenhal.

And we are told that Whent and Dayne were with Rhaegar at the time - Harrenhal being Whent's 'backyard'.

And we know that the Starks were beginning to congregate at Riverrun, not far from Harrenhal, for Brandon and Catelyn's wedding.

And we also know that Catelyn's mother was a Whent, from Harrenhal.

All of those are timely connections, if very indirect. So when we are told that the abduction was close to Harrenhal its new data that fits, if circumstantially, with old data, so we have no reason not to accept it.

And of course, there is nothing to suggest any other location.

Look at a map. Riverrun is 250 miles or so from Harrenhal -- a long damn distance northwest of it in a world without cars. No reason to think she was there whatsoever.

All the stuff about the Whents is irrelevant. Oswell was likely with Rhaegar, but we have no idea where Rhaegar was at that time either. The fact that Lyanna is related to them on her mother's side is irrelevant to her location at the time she disappeared, and reminds me of the argument she was at Winterfell because her father's side is, you know, a bit tied to that location.

And there's nothing to suggest she was anywhere, Harrenhal included. It's a basic reality of the canon.

[Voice]

Look at that long silvery hair and those blue eyes! Clearly, we have been going about this all wrong. Rhaegar = NK = father of all popsicles. :D

I know you're joking, and the hair of the wws is never described, but that is a strange similarity huh. Why are Targaryens and wws the only folks with snowylocks? Perhaps white/silver hair is the universal side effect of some ancient Pact breakage :)

[Voice]

Yep. The sword not shattered and no damage to Royce led me to believe it was pre-fight so I thought this was a bit of a strange rendition. I believe it is supposed to represent Royce just before he is hacked up by the gang.

I do like the drawering. The Other is better than the stills I have seen from the show.

Sorry for the rewind, didn't see the following discussion when I posted my comment. Pre-fight is also troublesome as Waymar drew his steel, but didn't kneel. The Other himself is amazingly illustrated, as is the whole scene if only that sword were shattered. The icicles are particularly intriguing, as they fit so well with GRRM's comments of ice sidhe, and the wondrous things they can do with ice. It also reminds me of the frosting over the weirwood in the V6 prologue. His blade truly seems to be Ice as well.