"A Year Ago I was Scheming to Make The Girl Robert's QUEEN"

[Ramsay Gimp]

Tywin really isn't a big problem. All Robert has to do if Tywin so much as raises an eyebrow in protest is to attain him. Send letters to every lord in the Westerlands saying if they stand with Tywin they too will be attained. He has the Crownlands, Stormlands, North, Riverlands, Veil, and Reach completely on his side. The Ironborn would probably join just for the kicks of being able to raid Tywin Lannister with approval of the King, and Dorne would get in line pretty quick if Robert promised them Gregor and Amory. Tywin is not some impossible foe. He's a strong commander to be sure, but against the rest of the country, and the removal of his bannermen, he's nothing. And no Westerland house is going to take on the rest of the country for an attained Tywin Lannister.

And the HS at the time was not some big threat either. He was lazy and corrupt, a glutton on top of it. He didn't inspire any love/dedication from the smallfolk, hello, they're the ones that literally tore him apart limb from limb in the street. He'd easily be manipulated/ intimidated into approving a divorce from Cersei (yes, Westeros has divorce, the HS can approve it) and to bless Robert/Marg marriage.

Small potato problems for Robert.

-No Lord Paramount wants to see another Lord Paramount attainted (unless they are already at war)

-Doran isn't just interested in taking revenge on the Lannisters. He wants to overthrow Robert's dynasty as well

-Balon is going to do Robert's bidding? lololol

-Jon Arryn would never approve, so Robert wouldn't have the Vale (this is ignoring the incest of course, since it wasn't a factor in Renly's plan)

[Dany Girl]

-No Lord Paramount wants to see another Lord Paramount attainted (unless they are already at war)

-Doran isn't just interested in taking revenge on the Lannisters. He wants to overthrow Robert's dynasty as well

-Balon is going to do Robert's bidding? lololol

-Jon Arryn would never approve, so Robert wouldn't have the Vale (this is ignoring the incest of course, since it wasn't a factor in Renly's plan)

-it doesn't matter if other LP's like it or not. Robert is King. Unless the country is going to go to civil war over keeping Cersei Queen, no one is going to stop him. Maybe they don't want to go to war, but if your King calls on you, you go, or you're a traitor. And in this case, Tywin would be branded a traitor and no one likes him so no one is going to say anything.

- You're right, Doran wants more, but he'd probably take what he could get short term and continue to plan long term. Even if he doesn't answer Robert's call, he sure as hell won't stand up for Tywin. So he's a non factor.

- Balon is a non factor. He either answers Roberts summons to raid freely in the Westerlands (hello fun times for the IB!) Or he stays home. He's not going to side with Tywin, so who cares either way. Even if Balon doesn't raid, Robert only has to invite other IB lords/ captains to raid and they'd happily jump at the chance.

- Jon Arryn wouldn't stand up for Cersei or Tywin against Robert. He already knows about the Twincest, so that's a factor even if Renly doesn't. Jon Arryn and Stannis were already planning on taking Cersei down,so if Robert announced he wants to set her aside for Marge, he'd use the info he has to help his King. Jon Arryn isn't pro Lannister. He's pro Robert. He chose Cersei as a wife because tge situation at the time dictated it. She's no longer necessary, and he knows she's cuckolding Robert. Marge is a fantastic replacement option, so he'd be on board.

Plain and simple, there's very very little chance Tywin will go to war against Robert. No one is going to stand against the King for Tywin/ Cersei. Renly lacks facts, but if the plan ever got to the execution stage then all the facts would come out. Tywin wouldn't necessarily get attained right away, only if he tries to cause issues for Robert. And if he tries to go to war over his cheater daughter who bore incest bastards trying to pass them off as true born, no LP would have an issue attaining him because that would be akin to calling what Cersei did ok, and no LP would stand for his wife pulling the same thing. He'd set her aside and she'd bring shame on her family just as Cersei would be doing in this scenario. This is a society where proper blood lines are very important.

[Tiggy4Real]

This is a society where proper blood lines are very important.

This is a society that was in desperate need of a good DNA test. Or a family birthmark, or something.

Your other points were pretty good, but this line stood out to me.

[Dany Girl]

This is a society that was in desperate need of a good DNA test. Or a family birthmark, or something.

Your other points were pretty good, but this line stood out to me.

Oh I totally agree they are sadly lacking in any provable means of determining paternity. But that's true to the era. The idea is that as a female in their society your "roll" is to provide heirs for your husband. That's the social contract so to speak, fair or not. If it becomes common reliable knowledge that Cersei has bastards she's attempting to pass off as true born, no male is gonna stand up for her, not even her father. He'll be lucky to keep her and the kids alive. The men of this world would not want women getting ideas. If a Queen gets away with cuckolding her King, then they might think it's cool for them too. And that won't fly in a feudal society. There's no right to sexual agency for women.

To be clear, I do not agree with these views in any way, they're frankly gross. It's just a fact of life in Westeros, as it was in our own history. Queens were killed for even the rumor of cheating. That's Joe it goes in a feudal society where family names and inheritance are so important. Look at poor Jon Arryn's quest for a strong heir. He wouldn't have had to worry if his nephew hadn't died.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Tywin really isn't a big problem. All Robert has to do if Tywin so much as raises an eyebrow in protest is to attain him. Send letters to every lord in the Westerlands saying if they stand with Tywin they too will be attained.

When Jaime was beaten at Riverrun and Stafford in the Westerlands Tywin was left with 20k men against the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands and the Reach and yet Tywins bannermen stayed true.

The idea that the Westerland Lords would jump ship so easily rings false to what we see in the books.

[DigitalCount]

I think that's a bit different, though. They were already at war at that point, and there was little cooperation between the groups mentioned. In the scenario here, it would essentially be Tywin vs. Westeros with maybe Dorne as spectators.

[Dany Girl]

When Jaime was beaten at Riverrun and Stafford in the Westerlands Tywin was left with 20k men against the North, the Riverlands, the Stormlands and the Reach and yet Tywins bannermen stayed true.

The idea that the Westerland Lords would jump ship so easily rings false to what we see in the books.

If the King attains Tywin and threatens to do the same to any house who goes to war for cheating Cersei, then I highly doubt those bannermen would still stay true.

Hell, I doubt Tywin would even try to go to war for Cersei if he found out she was banging Jaime and that the kinds were bastards. He wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

And were not taking a civil war with multiple kingdoms against each other like the Wot5K. It would be Tywin against almost everyone else. The only people who might not get involved are Dorne and Iron Islands. And they wouldn't be backing either side, just staying neutral.

No way would Ned, Jon or Hoster not back Robert. Renly and the Tyrells as well, since making Marge Queejis their plan. Tywin would be surrounded. He'd only have the other Westerland houses if they even bother.

And yes, Cersei's infidelity would become common knowledge as soon as Robert lets Jon know he wants to set aside Cersei.

[DigUpHerBones]

I think that's a bit different, though. They were already at war at that point, and there was little cooperation between the groups mentioned. In the scenario here, it would essentially be Tywin vs. Westeros with maybe Dorne as spectators.

it would be Tywin, all branches of House Lannister, and all the Gold in Casterly Rock(which is one of my main points but seems to be overlooked, the importance of a seemingly endless coffer in wartime vs a bankrupt Crown.

Tywin would have been smart enough to reach out to the Iron Bank as the Crown was already in considerable debt as a result of the rebellion and rebuilding , he could have presented a strong case, just like Stannis years later, and had their support.

he could purchase close to 50,000 sell swords from the Free Cities, 2 of which would have considerable interests in the outcome, Golden Company and Second Sons.

[DigUpHerBones]

Hell, I doubt Tywin would even try to go to war for Cersei if he found out she was banging Jaime and that the kinds were bastards. He wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

you think, REGARDLESS of evidence, he would ever admit that to himself?

never.

he is not going to war for Cers, he would be going to war for House Lannister and their legacy.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Hell, I doubt Tywin would even try to go to war for Cersei if he found out she was banging Jaime and that the kinds were bastards. He wouldn't have a leg to stand on.

Of course he would. He went to war for Tyrion, part of the reason why he crushed the Reynes and Tarbecks was because they kidnapped 3 Lannisters (1 was only of the Lannisport branch).

Robert would need to want to execute Cersei, Jaime and most likely the children. That is reason enough for Tywin to react.

No way would Ned, Jon or Hoster not back Robert. Renly and the Tyrells as well, since making Marge Queejis their plan. Tywin would be surrounded. He'd only have the other Westerland houses if they even bother.

Depends on what happens to Joffrey, Myrcella and Tommen. If Cersei manages to escape the capital with her children then Tywin had three children with 'claims' to the Throne. That would bring Tywin some allies as would the Gold of Casterly Rock.

And yes, Cersei's infidelity would become common knowledge as soon as Robert lets Jon know he wants to set aside Cersei.

It would still be a rumour, some would chose to believe it some would not. For more than a decade Robert had no doubts about their legitimacy, some would see this as an excuse by Robert.

[Sweetgirl205]

Umm he did that's kind of a big plot point in AGOT...

Yeah, after he read that book. When he told people like Littlefinger and Varys, they were like, "Duh, why didn't you figure it out quicker?". Nobody was shocked but Ned. I doubt very seriously that everyone took the time to read that monster of a book.

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

Yeah, after he read that book. When he told people like Littlefinger and Varys, they were like, "Duh, why didn't you figure it out quicker?". Nobody was shocked but Ned. I doubt very seriously that everyone took the time to read that monster of a book.

So, suddenly, two people are "everyone". Both with several years of a head start. One's the royal spymaster, who's supposed to know such things for a living. " Right.

[Vikingkingq]

A couple things:

1. I've absolutely always thought that Renly knew about the incest and simply chose to pretend otherwise when it wasn't in his interests to know, i.e in ACOK when the incest would make Stannis the rightful heir instead of both Renly and Stannis being rebels looking to establish their rule by right of conquest. For one thing, Mace is absolutely not going to agree to Renly and Loras' scheme if Cersei's children remain as the main line of succession.

2. This idea that the smallfolk are going to rise up if Cersei gets set aside is absurd. The common people - especially those of King's Landing - don't like the Lannisters, in no small part because of the Sack of King's Landing. They're not going to care if the old queen is replaced by the new queen, especially when Margaery and the Tyrells are very very good at public relations, and especially if incest and adultery is the reason given for Cersei and her children being removed.

3. The Faith are not going to rise for Cersei, especially if Cersei's incest and adultery is the stated reason for her removal. In addition to the High Septon being basically a pawn of the king prior to the Sparrow movement, the Faith is very much against both incest and adultery.

4. Even if Tywin goes to war, he's got 45,000 men tops he can put in the field. Between the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, Baratheons, Crownlands, and Tyrells, you've got around 245,000 soldiers who can be called upon for Robert. It's not anything close to an even fight. Maybe Tywin can hold the mountain passes, but Crakehall and Cornfields are going to fall eventually and the royal army is going to come storming up the Coast Road.

5. Hiring mercenaries takes time and depends on availability. Moreover, the mercenaries have to get all the way around Westeros before they can link up with Tywin's army, and that means dealing with Stannis and the Royal Navy and the Redwynes and their navy.

6. Given that the crown owes a million gold to the Iron Bank, the Iron Bank might be very much pleased at the thought of the three million the crown owes the Lannisters being expunged, freeing up a lot more money to repay them instead.

[TallTyrion]

Yeah, after he read that book. When he told people like Littlefinger and Varys, they were like, "Duh, why didn't you figure it out quicker?". Nobody was shocked but Ned. I doubt very seriously that everyone took the time to read that monster of a book.

So everyone = the two guys with the best intelligence networks in the series?

[Sweetgirl205]

So everyone = the two guys with the best intelligence networks in the series?

When Stannis published his letter everyone, not one single person said it was not true, except Cersie in public.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

When Stannis published his letter everyone, not one single person said it was not true, except Cersie in public.

How do you know this?

If people believed it to be true the Reach would not have joined the Lannisters, their whole partnership is based on Joffrey and Tommen being the true born sons of Robert Baratheon, as does the marriage contract between Myrcella and Trystane.

Some will chose to believe it, some wont.

Stannis made the letter public and it made little difference, people loyal to Renly were still loyal to Renly, people loyal to Robb were still loyal to Robb and people loyal to Joffrey were still loyal to Joffrey. The letter changed very few peoples mind.

[TallTyrion]

When Stannis published his letter everyone, not one single person said it was not true, except Cersie in public.

First, you have no way of knowing that.

Also if it was so obviously true why did Stannis feel the need to get Edric Storm for evidence?

[Ferocious Veldt Roarer]

When Stannis published his letter everyone, not one single person said it was not true, except Cersie in public.

Nobody said it was true, either, save for people already loyal to Stannis. You should have noticed that the lords of the realm did not exactly flock in bulk under Stannis' banner.

Liberties you are willing to take with the book material, and with logic, in order to prove your point, are, frankly, discouraging.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

If numerous people within that story considered Robert dismissing Cersei and taking a new wife a real possibility, then it's all the proof I need and, frankly, I'm a little puzzled that it's not enough for you.

:agree:

I would also like to add that the idea of a general anti-Lannister sentiment existing in westeros is confirmed by the fact that the Tyrells want to marry Margaery to Robert, a man old enough to be her father, in a marriage of dubious legality, and that will presumably involve the 2 preexisting "sons" of Robert being disinherited, when Robert has a son only a few years younger than Marg who will also have the backing of house Lannister.

The implication being that the Tyrells didn't want to share power or influence with house Lannister, and didn't want Cersei or her children near the Iron Throne.

[Ser Arthur Hightower]

A couple things:

1. I've absolutely always thought that Renly knew about the incest and simply chose to pretend otherwise when it wasn't in his interests to know, i.e in ACOK when the incest would make Stannis the rightful heir instead of both Renly and Stannis being rebels looking to establish their rule by right of conquest. For one thing, Mace is absolutely not going to agree to Renly and Loras' scheme if Cersei's children remain as the main line of succession.

2. This idea that the smallfolk are going to rise up if Cersei gets set aside is absurd. The common people - especially those of King's Landing - don't like the Lannisters, in no small part because of the Sack of King's Landing. They're not going to care if the old queen is replaced by the new queen, especially when Margaery and the Tyrells are very very good at public relations, and especially if incest and adultery is the reason given for Cersei and her children being removed.

3. The Faith are not going to rise for Cersei, especially if Cersei's incest and adultery is the stated reason for her removal. In addition to the High Septon being basically a pawn of the king prior to the Sparrow movement, the Faith is very much against both incest and adultery.

4. Even if Tywin goes to war, he's got 45,000 men tops he can put in the field. Between the Starks, Tullys, Arryns, Baratheons, Crownlands, and Tyrells, you've got around 245,000 soldiers who can be called upon for Robert. It's not anything close to an even fight. Maybe Tywin can hold the mountain passes, but Crakehall and Cornfields are going to fall eventually and the royal army is going to come storming up the Coast Road.

5. Hiring mercenaries takes time and depends on availability. Moreover, the mercenaries have to get all the way around Westeros before they can link up with Tywin's army, and that means dealing with Stannis and the Royal Navy and the Redwynes and their navy.

6. Given that the crown owes a million gold to the Iron Bank, the Iron Bank might be very much pleased at the thought of the three million the crown owes the Lannisters being expunged, freeing up a lot more money to repay them instead.

You may have just implied that the north is capable of raising more than 20,000 men, careful you don't offend anyone.