"A Year Ago I was Scheming to Make The Girl Robert's QUEEN"

[thelittledragonthatcould]

:agree:

I would also like to add that the idea of a general anti-Lannister sentiment existing in westeros is confirmed by the fact that the Tyrells want to marry Margaery to Robert, a man old enough to be her father, in a marriage of dubious legality, and that will presumably involve the 2 preexisting "sons" of Robert being disinherited, when Robert has a son only a few years younger than Marg who will also have the backing of house Lannister.

The implication being that the Tyrells didn't want to share power or influence with house Lannister, and didn't want Cersei or her children near the Iron Throne.

Robert has never even met Maegary. I think a lot of people are jumping the gun on this plot being anything more than a pipe dream.

[SummerSphinx]

Robert has never even met Maegary. I think a lot of people are jumping the gun on this plot being anything more than a pipe dream.

That's why I think Renly (or whoever was using Renly as a pawn) thought Cercei was going to die. Robert already had over a dozen bastards by over a dozen women. He was married. And he was the king, so he could kind of do what he wanted with women. He is the last man you would want to notice a young, eligible high born maiden you cared about. He didn't set Cercei aside after all those other affairs, and he owed Tywin a lot of money, IIRC.

If Margaery met him and he desired her, what are the chances he would wait? What is the likelihood that he would ask her father's permission? Why would Robert rock the boat with Tywin?

If she did conceive, her bastard would be the 17th bastard. Why would he remember this one, when he had forgotten all the others?

At this point, it seems a great many women had been able to turn Robert's head for an hour, a day, or a month, but no woman had held his attention long.

Why would you risk "tarnishing your daughter's reputation" with Robert? (I don't like this phrase, but I think it would be difficult to find another high match for Margaery if she got pregnant).

I think if one anticipates Cercei being killed for treason, it changes the whole picture.

[Aemond's Eye]

I'm not so sure. I don't think Renly and the Tyrells knew about the twincest, or they would have acted sooner in that regard. Renly was banking on Margaery's supposed likeness to Lyanna and hoping that it would be enough for Robert to send Cersei packing

The sad part is that Renly's and Stannis' plans complemented each other and would have worked if they had worked together

It's the downside to Stannis' self-imposed seclusion. Renly didn't know what his elder brother was planning, and had to make his own moves. Had the two been closer and kept in touch after Stannis returned to Dragonstone, then I think Stannis' offer to name Renly his heir may have worked. But by the time he actually made the offer in ACOK, it was too late.

Like a lot of things in ASOIAF, it's interesting to ponder the butterfly effect; change one piece on the board and the entire game changes. Just like in reality.

[JonCon's Red Beard]

Of course he would. He went to war for Tyrion, part of the reason why he crushed the Reynes and Tarbecks was because they kidnapped 3 Lannisters (1 was only of the Lannisport branch).

Those were excuses. Tywin almost never acts first. Tyrion being arrested by Catelyn was the excuse he needed to say the Tullys/Starks attacked first.

Robert has never even met Maegary. I think a lot of people are jumping the gun on this plot being anything more than a pipe dream.

Renly's intention was that Robert could see Margaery and be reminded of Lyanna. Marg didn't look like Lyanna at all (according to Ned) but that didn't mean she couldn't have triggered some memories in him. That and the girl is pretty and probably, educated to "please" the King in whatever he had wanted to. The Tyrells only needed Robert to deflower her and maybe have a kid with him (damn, even Renly could have gotten her pregnant, it's the same DNA) and say the kid was Robert's. Then, make any excuse and replace Cersei. He's so fed up with her that he would buy it.

[Ramsay Gimp]

Those were excuses. Tywin almost never acts first. Tyrion being arrested by Catelyn was the excuse he needed to say the Tullys/Starks attacked first.

In this case Robert and the Tyrells would be acting first.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

Those were excuses. Tywin almost never acts first. Tyrion being arrested by Catelyn was the excuse he needed to say the Tullys/Starks attacked first.

He had no reason to attack the Riverlands until Cat invoked her fathers name and captured Tyrion in the Riverland using Riverands men.

Would Tywin have acted so harshly against the Tarbecks and Reynes had they not previously kidnapped three Lannisters and killed his Marbrand Grandfather? Who knows as we still dont have a complete picture, but personally I think it contributed to Tywins wrath.

Renly's intention was that Robert could see Margaery and be reminded of Lyanna. Marg didn't look like Lyanna at all (according to Ned) but that didn't mean she couldn't have triggered some memories in him. That and the girl is pretty and probably, educated to "please" the King in whatever he had wanted to. The Tyrells only needed Robert to deflower her and maybe have a kid with him (damn, even Renly could have gotten her pregnant, it's the same DNA) and say the kid was Robert's. Then, make any excuse and replace Cersei. He's so fed up with her that he would buy it.

It was really a long shot by Renly.

I bet the Florents were hoping for more royal favour from Robert after he impregnated one of their daughters but that didn't seem to be the case.

Robert seems to be able to fuck anyone he wants while married to Cersei. Why would he give that up? To marry some girl he has never met? Is that really worth alienating the Westerlands or his own children?

Aegon the Unworthy had an awful reputation and even he didn't marry again while his wife was still alive. Underneath all that flab is a proud man worried about his legacy, cheating is one thing disposing of wives is something else. I think only Maegor was so cruel to do that.

[Vikingkingq]

Robert has never even met Maegary. I think a lot of people are jumping the gun on this plot being anything more than a pipe dream.

He didn't particularly need to:

"I'm still young, and now that you're here with me things will be different. We'll make this a reign to sing of, and damn the Lannisters to seven hells...Renly says he has this sister, a maid of fourteen, lovely as a dawn..." (AGOT, Eddard VII)

Robert hated his wife, hated Joffrey. If Renly comes to him offering him a fresh start, he's going to jump at it.

[Vikingkingq]

You may have just implied that the north is capable of raising more than 20,000 men, careful you don't offend anyone.

Don't get me wrong, I don't think the North has more men than the Westerlands. The North can raise 35,000 men or thereabouts and I'll defend that number if required.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

He didn't particularly need to:

Robert hated his wife, hated Joffrey. If Renly comes to him offering him a fresh start, he's going to jump at it.

He may hate Cersei but Maegary is hardly the first Lady to accept his advances. He is getting regular sex from many women, having never met Maegary it is a hugely presumptuous to say that he would forsake his wife and piss of his children and the House that funds his lavish lifestyle.

Hating Cersei is not a new thing for Robert and yet he has stayed married to her.

Sure, Joffrey is a huge disappointment to him but on his deathbed he asked

And help my son, Ned. Make him be . . . better than me." He winced. "Gods have mercy.

and his final words were

I will give Lyanna your love, Ned. Take care of my children for me.

This was hardly a man who was going to set aside his children for a fling.

People go on about how much Robert hated the Lannisters, but it is hugely exaggerated. Irritated may be a more appropriate word. He has just made Jaime the Warden of the East, rejecting Neds request that one of Roberts brothers be made Warden while the Lannister presence at court is growing. Robert is not a man distancing himself from that family but allowing it to become more influential.

[UnFit Finlay]

it would be Tywin, all branches of House Lannister, and all the Gold in Casterly Rock(which is one of my main points but seems to be overlooked, the importance of a seemingly endless coffer in wartime vs a bankrupt Crown.

Tywin would have been smart enough to reach out to the Iron Bank as the Crown was already in considerable debt as a result of the rebellion and rebuilding , he could have presented a strong case, just like Stannis years later, and had their support.

Stannis didn't reach out to the Iron Bank, they reached out to him after Cersei defaulted on their payments. Robert wouldn't do that, and wouldn't need to since payments to the Lannisters would stop if they rebelled.

Besides that, sellswords aren't exactly reliable. In the entire series, the Golden Company is the only one who hasn't switched sides when it was convenient. They might take Tywin's money but that doesn't mean they won't side with Robert when they realise exactly what they are up against.

Of course he would. He went to war for Tyrion, part of the reason why he crushed the Reynes and Tarbecks was because they kidnapped 3 Lannisters (1 was only of the Lannisport branch).

Going to war against the Riverlands when your daughter is the Queen, or crushing an uprising from your own vassals is a LOT different from rebelling against the Crown. Aerys took pleasure in humiliating Tywin, including taking "liberties" with Joanna and, yet, Tywin just glumly accepted it.

He may hate Cersei but Maegary is hardly the first Lady to accept his advances. He is getting regular sex from many women, having never met Maegary it is a hugely presumptuous to say that he would forsake his wife and piss of his children and the House that funds his lavish lifestyle.

I think you are vastly underestimating Margaery's role in the scheme. Her job was to seduce Robert and make him fall in love with her, not just to lay down and spread her legs as soon as he asked. Renly knows his brother and would no doubt be coaching her every step of the way.

[SummerSphinx]

I think Cercei had to die and the paternity of the children questioned.

If you leave her alive, you risk the following:

1. Robert forces himself on Margaery because he is the king. But why marry her? It requires too much effort at too great a cost. Even if he was willing to talk about the idea, words are wind. Complaining about Lannisters in private is different from openly challenging or offending them.

2. Married or not, the life of any baby Margaery bore would be at risk. It was rumored that Cercei killed twin children of Robert's in Lannisport. Tywin was known to have killed the Targaryen children.

3. Major succession issues. It is one thing to set aside a wife (debatably possible, though very politically difficult), but Robert could hardly set aside Joffery and Tommen as heirs just because he didn't like their mom anymore. Tywin, Jaime, and Cercei would fight for Joff, Tommen, and Myrcella. Others might not like Lannisters, but they could be upset because the whole political system of Westeros was based on oldest legitimate male children inheriting first.

4. If Robert set Cercei aside but Joff and Co were not disowned as bastards, their lives and the Lannister claim would be at risk once Margaery bore a son.

The Queen of Thorns would not want to risk so much (Margaery's reputation, the risk of bastard status for Margaery's children, the risk of death for Margaery's children), with such long odds of success. It is possible Margaery's dad, Loras, and Renly weren't thinking things through, but Oleanna would know the risks.

[John Doe]

Those were excuses. Tywin almost never acts first. Tyrion being arrested by Catelyn was the excuse he needed to say the Tullys/Starks attacked first.

The facts where stated many times. Repeating your opinion doesn't make it any more true.

[thelittledragonthatcould]

I think you are vastly underestimating Margaery's role in the scheme. Her job was to seduce Robert and make him fall in love with her, not just to lay down and spread her legs as soon as he asked. Renly knows his brother and would no doubt be coaching her every step of the way.

Do you think she will be the first woman to try to seduce the King and to try and make him fall in love with her?

Renly was counting on Maegary being the spitting image of the Lyanna to win Robert over, something she clearly wasn't. Added to the fact that he had yet to even meet her, and Robert having no problem sleeping and leaving with a great many different women makes me think Renlys plan was flawed from the start.

Stannis thought the plan was to make her another one of Roberts many whores. This was doable, I even wonder if Renly saying he planned to make her his wife was not a defence of Stannis calling his new wife a 'whore' infront of so many witnesses.

Joffrey was close to 13, his marriage already arranged and at this age he would started to be given more responsibilities in the running of the realm. Time was running out on any plan for Cersei to be sent packing.

[Victor227]

The plan was definitely a long shot, of course we're not seeing the full picture of it. Perhaps Renly even intended it to be a longshot. After all, the only power on the continent capable of matching the Lannisters are the Tyrells. He may not have wanted a clean transition of court powers, but to replace Cersei in such a way that it puts the two families against eachother. After all, Renly isn't a Tyrell, he's a Baratheon, and the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands, a weaker power than the Reach or Westerlands. Of course, that's a bit doubtful considering his relationship with Loras.

In any case, that seemed more like a longer-term plan. I doubt it was going to just be "Get Margery to King's Landing and see what happens". As well of course, a Tyrell isn't a Florent. if Robert bedded Margery, there would be a lot more pressure than if he'd done so with the daughter of the youngest of the four Florent brothers (Edric's mother was the daughter of Alestar Florent's youngest brother). As is though, the whole thing was mostly an indication that Renly was working against the Lannisters in King's landing.

In the end, we saw that Renly wasn't just idly going for some eventual long-term game that may or may not appear, when things did get real, and Robert was fatally injured, he approached Ned, and had enough people on-hand that the two of them could have pulled off a nighttime coup and taken the Red Keep. That sort of move shows he wasn't just joking around, he saw that the Lannisters were poised to take absolute control through Joffrey, and was willing to fight to stop it.

[Griffin's Roost]

don't you remember when Renly asked Ned if Margaery looks like Lyanna? this was a serious plan and I doubt as well Renly made it. I personally think Olenna knew of Loras's relationship with Renly and used that as a vehicle for her plan. She told Loras tell Renly to get Robert to marry Margaery. So the Tyrells can be the controlling power behind Robert and Loras can move to be with Renly as a kingsguard.

there is no real textual evidence. but you can see why this theory would be because Olenna pretty much openly says she runs everything because Mace in her mind is too stupid to run things (even though he really is not stupid at all). she is known to work closely with her family even though they don't know the full plan, like what Olenna does with Margaery for example. she also says she thinks Renly is dumb for trying to be king. so if everyone is so dumb according to her this plan would be beyond their mental reach.

[Victor227]

don't you remember when Renly asked Ned if Margaery looks like Lyanna? this was a serious plan and I doubt as well Renly made it. I personally think Olenna knew of Loras's relationship with Renly and used that as a vehicle for her plan. She told Loras tell Renly to get Robert to marry Margaery. So the Tyrells can be the controlling power behind Robert and Loras can move to be with Renly as a kingsguard.

there is no real textual evidence. but you can see why this theory would be because Olenna pretty much openly says she runs everything because Mace in her mind is too stupid to run things (even though he really is not stupid at all). she is known to work closely with her family even though they don't know the full plan, like what Olenna does with Margaery for example. she also says she thinks Renly is dumb for trying to be king. so if everyone is so dumb according to her this plan would be beyond their mental reach.

Olenna says that everyone is dumb, always. She's completely unreliable in that sense. She talks about Renly after he's a dead traitor. He's passe, yesterday's news, best forgotten for those trying to get an 'in' with the winners. As well, if you're to believe Olenna, then Mace is the vehicle for Tyrell ambition. Why would Olenna start a plot that may well get Margery killed by Lannister daggers/poison if she were content with the position of her family?

Who benefits from a plan to replace the Lannisters with the Tyrells? In the long term, the Tyrells have a -chance- of benefiting certainly. In the short term however, you have two of the strongest houses on the continent at odds with one another. The ones who benefit most from that balancing act are the Baratheons. Renly in particular, who becomes a valuable commodity with the Stormlands as opposed to someone who can be brushed aside by the Lannister juggernaut in favor of claiming his lands for Joffrey or Tommen.

If you're looking for a reason for Olenna to be spiteful about Renly though, you might consider that she may have been annoyed that Renly was using the Tyrells. Obviously it was to mutual benefit, but Renly was the guy on the chopping block. He knew that the Lannisters were going to come after him after Robert's death, as he told Ned, and the Stormlands aren't powerful enough to defy the Crown and Lannisters on their own. He was trying to use the Tyrells to destabilize the Lannisters in the capital, and after Robert's death, and Ned's refusal to take power, he took the political currency available to him, his claim and his position, and used them to form his own Tyrell/Baratheon alliance under himself as king. No one was threatening the Tyrells, in fact with Stannis in bed with the Florents, the Lannister-controlled Baratheons would be natural allies in getting rid of Robert's brothers.

[UnFit Finlay]

Do you think she will be the first woman to try to seduce the King and to try and make him fall in love with her?

Renly was counting on Maegary being the spitting image of the Lyanna to win Robert over, something she clearly wasn't. Added to the fact that he had yet to even meet her, and Robert having no problem sleeping and leaving with a great many different women makes me think Renlys plan was flawed from the start.

Stannis thought the plan was to make her another one of Roberts many whores. This was doable, I even wonder if Renly saying he planned to make her his wife was not a defence of Stannis calling his new wife a 'whore' infront of so many witnesses.

Joffrey was close to 13, his marriage already arranged and at this age he would started to be given more responsibilities in the running of the realm. Time was running out on any plan for Cersei to be sent packing.

Nope. I do think that she'd be the first daughter of one the Great Houses to try and seduce the King, with the assistance of the King's brother as well. Ned (I think?) pondered about how quick Robert was to fall in love, and how quickly it was gone after he'd had his fun. Renly would know that as well, and so would Margaery.

Do you seriously think the Tyrells would trade Margaery's maidenhood for anything less than marriage? As creepy as it is, they could've used her to secure a marriage pact with the Tullys (through Edmure) or the Starks (through Robb). They aren't going to give that up just to make her Robert's "whore".

Joffrey could still be disinherited, no matter what age he is. It would cause problems, yes, but it could still be done. The biggest obstacle they had was his betrothal to Sansa. Robert might not like Joff, or give a crap about offending the Lannisters, but it'd take a lot to convince him to offend Ned.

[Bright Ancalagon]

I think it's unrealistic to think that Tywin would have any chance of win a war, against all great houses. That said, I think the Lannister would be in a really tough position if the incest turns out to be public.

Of course there would be no concrete evidence at all (which makes me think, wtflick, Arryn and Stannis were searching for? They had a book and thats pretty much everything you could get. For example, Cersei could use the Turin's defense in Nargothrond) but if the King cast them out, what would Tywin do ? Let Robert kills his golden siblings and grandchildren? According to Tyron he, at some point, gives up Jaime, but the way Tywin talks to Jaime when they first meet in KL doesn't fell this way.

By the way, could the West do anything to stop Booby kill them? I mean, i think at least Cersei he would do by himself asap. There would be no judgment. The kids, in the other hand, might have a better chance, but since the King it's still alive, they can't crown Joffrey, even if he escapes.

I'm brazilian and new on board so plz forgive me if i made some grammar, or forum rule violation

[Chancho]

He didn't particularly need to:

Robert hated his wife, hated Joffrey. If Renly comes to him offering him a fresh start, he's going to jump at it.

Not quite that simple and Robert is always dodging hard decisions anyway.

[Chancho]

I think it's unrealistic to think that Tywin would have any chance of win a war, against all great houses. That said, I think the Lannister would be in a really tough position if the incest turns out to be public. Of course there would be no concrete evidence at all (which makes me think, wtflick, Arryn and Stannis were searching for? They had a book and thats pretty much everything you could get. For example, Cersei could use the Turin's defense in Nargothrond) but if the King cast them out, what would Tywin do ? Let Robert kills his golden siblings and grandchildren? According to Tyron he, at some point, gives up Jaime, but the way Tywin talks to Jaime when they first meet in KL doesn't fell this way. By the way, could the West do anything to stop Booby kill them? I mean, i think at least Cersei he would do by himself asap. There would be no judgment. The kids, in the other hand, might have a better chance, but since the King it's still alive, they can't crown Joffrey, even if he escapes. I'm brazilian and new on board so plz forgive me if i made some grammar, or forum rule violation

Bem Vindo, eu acho que o Tywin só entrou de cabeça nessa luta contra os Starks, porque já tinha certeza da inaptidão do Robert e que tudo que ele mais queria é fugir desse tipo de decisões... Ele só quis mandar uma mensagem e imaginou que tudo terminaria rápido com o Rei intervendo enquanto os Lannisters tiraram alguma vantagem, destroçaram um bocado das Terras dos Rios e talvez com Ned Stark Capturado (Beric Dondarion foi no lugar), mas tudo fugiu do controle nas mãos do ataque do Jaime ao Ned, Robert morrendo e Joffrey sendo Joffrey. Em situações normais acho que o Tywin seria muito cauteloso com qualquer reação, se tratando das grandes casas e do Rei... Provavelmente alimentando um plano mais a longo prazo de retaliação.