so what exactly is the point of (f)Aegon?

[Mithras]

Greyscale never left Westeros. The latest victim we know was a Greyjoy. I highly doubt we will see any sort of plague. But even so, Dany would be the one to get the blame as she will be seen as bringing the sweepings of Essos.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

fAegon will not sit on the IT. Until Cersei burns the KL, we will have Myrcella succeeding Tommen and that is it.

Cersei won't live long enough to burn down KL. Someone will, but not her.

No he does not. That "several asses on the IT" talk was done for the TV show only and Joffrey was alive at the time being.

Two people are not "several." After Tommen dies, which likely happens early in TWoW, Myrcella will be queen, but briefly. Myrcella and Cersei will both be dead before Aegon gets to King's Landing. If Arianne is with him, Lady Nym and Tyene will be there to welcome their cousin and king to the city.

[Mithras]

And please, use your logic. Had JonCon got grey plague, he would be dead already.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

the triarchy will reunite because there is a new pirate king in the stepstones

Pledging eternal friendship with one another, they came together in 96 AC as the Triarchy, though in Westeros their union was best known as the Kingdom of the Three Daughters. The Triarchy began with the stated aim of cleansing the Stepstones of pirates and corsairs.

[Mithras]

Cersei won't live long enough to burn down KL. Someone will, but not her.

Two people are not "several." After Tommen dies, which likely happens early in TWoW, Myrcella will be queen, but briefly. Myrcella and Cersei will both be dead before Aegon gets to King's Landing. If Arianne is with him, Lady Nym and Tyene will be there to welcome their cousin and king to the city.

Except every piece of forehsadowing points to Cersei burning the KL. Even the TV show produced additional foreshadowing for the same purpose. This is such a strong plot point that you should base any other related theory accordingly.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Cersei won't live long enough to burn down KL. Someone will, but not her.

Two people are not "several." After Tommen dies, which likely happens early in TWoW, Myrcella will be queen, but briefly. Myrcella and Cersei will both be dead before Aegon gets to King's Landing. If Arianne is with him, Lady Nym and Tyene will be there to welcome their cousin and king to the city.

Cersei and the Mad Plan 2.0 is one of the best supported theories IMO.

besides, more people actually sat the iron throne.. regents do.

Cersei, Kevan and soon Mace should be included.

[Mithras]

That is not a hint that they will recreate the Triarchy. They did not even participate in the war against Daenerys. If she wins the allegiance of the Volantene slave soldiers, Myr, Tyrosh, and Lys better consider reforming their lifestyle, or else Dany is going to come for them, too. And with the Volantene fleet captured at Slaver's Bay and whatever ships remain from the Ironborn and the defeated Ghiscari alliances she should have a fleet big enough to defeat all three Free Cities in open combat if she has to - but I doubt she will. Not to mention that the slaves of those cities may do her work for her. After all, if there is a general feeling that slavery is going to be overcome in vast portions of Essos the power of the slavers in Lys, Myr, and Tyrosh will crumble.

Rhaenyra was the chosen heir of her father, Aegon is nothing but a (possibly false) pretender if he doesn't take KL and the intact Iron Throne. The Iron Throne will make him king, not Storm's End and his claim that he is Rhaegar's son. A pretender whose heritage and claim is undisputed has the luxury of suffering some military defeats, but Aegon does not.

If he loses too much battles or takes stupid detours that make no sense his own men - sellswords, after all - will castrate him and sell him to the Lannisters or Tyrells.

Aegon can and most likely will marry Arianne. But that doesn't mean he can't first marry Myrcella. She may already be captured by the Golden Company if Lady Nym took the Boneway and went through the Stormlands when Arianne arrives at Storm's End. And Myrcella could open up the way to KL. And Myrcella can be killed once she has served her purpose. Dorne will fight for Aegon, but Arianne won't marry Aegon until after she learns about Dany's (alleged) death and Quentyn's confirmed death.

Especially not if she has doubts that Aegon his her cousin. But once it becomes clear that Quentyn is dead then their only hope for revenge and power is Aegon - be he true or false.

Oh, and you really think Varys will allow Cersei to burn down the city his precious Aegon will take? Why would he do that? Surely you don't think Cersei has more influence/control in KL and the Red Keep right now than Varys...?

I am not sure the Volantene slave soldiers are worth shit.

Besides, you are seriously underestimating the power of the Triarchy. Need I remind you the Battle in the Gullet where there were more dragons than Dany has, and most of them were significantly larger, yet the Triarchy overwhelmed despite heavy losses.

fAegon does not have the power to take KL yet. That much is obvious. And there is a Tyrell host coming. He needs to have more Lords and more troops at his side before making an attempt to take the KL.

That Myrcella plan does not make any sense.

It is obvious that Arianne is ambitious towards being the queen rather than seeing Quentyn as the king consort of Dany.

Varys will be long dead before the burning of the KL takes place. Do you know what happens to a spider when a heavy stone fells upon it?

And fAegon will never have the chance to take the KL. The burning of the KL will take place near the end of the series.

[Mithras]

Cersei and the Mad Plan 2.0 is one of the best supported theories IMO.

besides, more people actually sat the iron throne.. regents do.

Cersei, Kevan and soon Mace should be included.

As the Hand of the King, Mace might have already sat on the IT.

[LordToo-Fat-to-Sit-a-Horse]

Aegon can and most likely will marry Arianne. But that doesn't mean he can't first marry Myrcella. She may already be captured by the Golden Company if Lady Nym took the Boneway and went through the Stormlands when Arianne arrives at Storm's End. And Myrcella could open up the way to KL. And Myrcella can be killed once she has served her purpose. Dorne will fight for Aegon, but Arianne won't marry Aegon until after she learns about Dany's (alleged) death and Quentyn's confirmed death.

in the epilogue preparations for Myrcella´s arrival were being planned.

I think she is already in the crownlands, she passed through the Stormlands before the Golden Comapny invaded.

once she arrives KL, and she will, because the sand snakes need to do stuff at court, Cersei won´t let her marry Aegon, neither will Mace (if/when he is in power) :

“Preparations should be made for Princess Myrcella.”

“This is what comes of dealing with the Dornish,” Mace Tyrell said. “Surely a better match can be found for the girl?”

Such as your own son Willas, perhaps? Her disfigured by one Dornishman, him crippled by another?

[Lost Melnibonean]

I'm wondering if we have time for all of that AND the fight against the Others.

The 1993 letter shows that ASOIAF was intended to consist of three acts, the struggle between Houses Stark and Lannister, Daenerys's return to Westeros, and the War for the Dawn, with each act to be completed in one novel. Well, the game took three novels and so will the dance. We'll just have to see whether The George can coplete the war in one novel.

[Lost Melnibonean]

You are not making sense. What makes you believe that the Triarchy is forming again? And if so, why the hell would they want to trouble Dany? They didn't trouble the Golden Company, either.

Nobody is going to follow Aegon should he not conquer or sit the Iron Throne, by the way. If Cersei would burn down KL the Realm will disintegrate. Aegon does not have the strength to hold it together if he does not have a royal seat. If he takes KL he will have the Realm. He is a Targaryen, he does not have crush every enemy opposing him. They will come like whipped curs to seek his favour if he has the symbols of power. But if they are destroyed then pretty much everything is lost and everyone could become king of his own domain.

And Myrcella does not have to be Queen Regnant to wear a crown. She could be Aegon's queen consort, or this whole thing could simply have been a figure of speech. Until she hasn't returned to KL safely it is a very big stretch to assume she'll ever sit the Iron Throne - and come of think of that, Tommen never sat the Iron Throne, either, if I remember correctly.

See Lord Too Fat's post, nine down...

http://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php/topic/110630-moments-of-foreshadowing-9/page-3

[Lord Varys]

There is too little time for that.

[Lost Melnibonean]

There is too little time for that.

Nah, there's plent of time as long as The George stays out of the bathroom at bathroom floor at the Boscolo Exedra Hotel in the Piazza della Repubblica in Rome unlike this fellow...

http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Gandolfini

[Lord Varys]

Well, also there aren't any important or know characters in Lys/Tyrosh/Myr besides such 'core characters' like Edric Storm and Lynesse Hightower. How could such a story unfold in an interesting way? Not to mention that all those searches for contrived 'historical parallels' are both tedious and boring. The fact that there will be Second Dance doesn't mean that this war will have anything in common with the First Dance besides the name (and the fact that at least one male and female Targaryen pretender will fight in that war).

[Fire Eater]

Fire Eater,

if Dany comes with half of Essos - her Dothraki, Unsullied, sellswords, freedmen, Ironborn, Volantenes, etc. - then Aegon and his allies won't stand a chance (and would be entirely stupid to oppose her) if they did already effectively control a more or less united Westeros (the North excluded). Only if Aegon VI has effectively won the war for all intents and purposes would it make sense to reject and alliance with Daenerys and consider her an enemy. Aegon should also provide the Riverlords/Catelyn with the necessary smokescreen/figurehead under whose nominal rule they can exterminate the Freys/Lannisters and restore the Tullys to Riverrun (either Edmure or Catelyn herself).

The Vale might not be crucial/send any troops to help Aegon conquer Westeros but if he sits on the Iron Throne they would be stupid to not recognize him as king.

Who backed Rhaenyra is the First Dance doesn't really matter in that regard, and I don't see any reason why Dany should land in the Vale as the Mountains of the Moon would then cut her off from the rest of Westeros.

Dany's army would be in the tens of thousands. Not all the the freedmen are fighters, the fighters make up a minority. She wouldn't bring all the Dothraki to Westeros. Aegon would still be able to put up a fight against her given he has a professional army, seasoned commanders with the likes of Connington and likely Tarly, the Faith, public opinion and a much larger army. Aegon doesn't even know Cat is undead, and leads the BwB. Aegon won't support the Tullys, who fought against his the Targaryens, and with the remaining members fugitives. It would be smarter to raise up another lord as his liege lord of the Trident. I would be surprised if he actually heard of her. Aegon wouldn't reject an alliance with the aunt with dragons, that is a stupid decision with no real motive behind it. It is more likely Dany already knows he is fake

That is a big "if." Besides, he wouldn't be able to project any force into the Vale, and he has to date no literal dragons compared to Dany if she lands.

Yes, it does matter. The first Dance is to provide clues for the second Dance. The Mountains of the Moon are a plus given she is the one invading, and the Mountains of the Moon deter any counterattack from KL or Aegon. Tyrion also contacts with the mountain clans. It wouldn't cut her off given the mountain clans would likely no paths through the mountains. The Vale is also at full reserves, and Tyrion is itching to pay back his debt to the Vale.

Jon Connington does indeed want to end the Usurper's line which suggests to me that Myrcella may suffer a similar as Jaehaera Targaryen. If Aegon's forces capture Myrcella, and if Tommen dies before they attack KL, the opportunity to take the capital and throne without any fight at all by simply marrying Myrcella to Aegon will be way too tempting, I imagine.

If George intends to stick to the general outline of Daenerys conquering Westeros then she really has to meet a strong opposition and face a united Westeros against her rise - the Targaryen loyalists have to proclaim for another Targaryen pretender, the Faith will back that pretender because he looks the part and is neither female, nor a heretic, nor a bastard, the Martells will want to smite Dany because she spurned Quentyn and 'let him die'.

What I could see as the beginning of the Dance is Varys and Illyrio taking the easiest road - deciding that Dany is a threat now, and sending word to activate their hidden dagger at Dany's to take her out long before she actually reaches Westeros - Strong Belwas. If Dany survives and makes the connection (and Belwas successfully murders somebody close to her - say, Missandei or Daario) she'll be very pissed indeed.

Ending the line means no living heirs for Robert at all. No one is interested in her marrying Aegon. Also, Mycrella carries the rumors of being the Kingslayer's bastard, or not being Robert's at all. She brings no swords or dragons into the marriage either. Either way she isn't desirable as a match for Aegon.

Aegon would provide a strong enough opposition with the stormlands, Dorne and much of the Reach along with the Faith as well as the idea of legitimacy. Westeros doesn't need to be united under one rule to give her a challenge. 5-6 of the 7K or the Lannisters and Aegon opposing her is enough. It is supposed to be a challenge not impossible.

Varys and Illyrio killing Dany when they have no info to act on regarding that is highly unlikely. They likely won't know she is a threat until after she sends out ravens saying Aegon is an imposter. Belwas is no longer Illyrio's, and there is no way they can communicate to him without Dany knowing unless Varys has a glass candle.

[Lady Blizzardborn]

Except every piece of forehsadowing points to Cersei burning the KL. Even the TV show produced additional foreshadowing for the same purpose. This is such a strong plot point that you should base any other related theory accordingly.

The foreshadowing points to Cersei maybe trying to burn it down. That doesn't mean she'll succeed.

And really, don't use the TV show. They killed Barristan.

Cersei and the Mad Plan 2.0 is one of the best supported theories IMO.

besides, more people actually sat the iron throne.. regents do.

Cersei, Kevan and soon Mace should be included.

Mad plan does not equal KL actually burning down. I agree that it's going down, but I think Cersei's involvement is more to get us the knowledge that sets up someone else burning the city to the ground, possibly by accident, and to show us just how unstable she really is.

Is she thinking of it? Sure. Will she try it? Maybe. Would she succeed? Probably not. Jaime stopped an actual king from that. Jaime or Brienne (who knows the truth about the kingslaying) could stop Cersei, easily.