Did Stannis even have a chance? (Spoilers)

[The Grey Wolf]

Needless to say this episode has generated a big reaction from many people, myself included. The question I'd like to ask is, with the way D & D set up the (supposed) Battle of Winterfell, did Stannis even have a chance to win and could he have done anything that would have given him even a slightly better chance at all?

For example,giving a rousing speech describing how if they win a castle full of food and shelter is within a days walk and how these men fought for him against Renly, on the Blackwater, beyond the Wall and survived the march or having his army march (as befits "the best commander in Westeros") in actual formation with spearmen in front and on the flanks with archers (if there were even any) positioned to fire a volley and quickly retreat behind lines?

From the looks of things in the show his army (according to the GOT wiki about 1300 men total) was not only entirely on foot but also not in formation, starving (despite half the army deserting, which, in theory, would leave a decent amount of food for those who stayed), low on morale, and didn't seem to have much variation in weaponry or armor. We see a few shots of men wielding swords, spears, and maybe a pike or two (I might be mixing them up with the spears) but no axes, hammers, maces, or even bows. The Boltons on the other hand (numbering, again, according to the wiki, 2000 men) seem to have more numbers, are all mounted, and somehow are able to set up formation and begin charging without being seen from far off on an flat, open field (no doubt some kind of superpower from the Bolton secret family technique manual created specially for the show).

For reference, here's a picture:

http://img2.wikia.nocookie.net/__cb20150616101353/gameofthrones/images/a/a5/5x10_Battle_of_Winterfell.png

[Lord Giggles]

Stannis was pretty doomed from the moment he showed up at Winterfell. However, when he saw the Bolton army coming over the hill charging towards him(all on horseback) he actually made te best strategic choice open to him, draw his sword and charge, leading from the front.

His army being strung out wasn't a bad tactical desicion on his part. He was expecting a siege when he showed up at Winterfell, not a pitched battle, meaning he could wait for the stragglers to catch up. Also, in a medieval army, it's very difficult to enforce the kind of discipline that will make men stay in formation on a long march, especially when they're exhausted, starving, likely frostbitten and freezing to death. Hell, Napoleon didn't manage it when he invaded Russia and his army was a lot more proffessional and much better motivated than Stannis'.

When Stannis shows up at Winterfell and finds a large force(possibly outnumbering his own) charging towards him on horseback, he only has a few options.

1. Fall back to the woods where the Boltons horses become a hindrance rather than a help and try to form his men into some kind of cohesion. However, seeing as they are a mix of Southrons, Northmen and the occasional sellsword, they have little esprit de corp, meaning most would probably run once they reache the woods.

2. Try and form squares or pike formations to meet the cavalry and halt their charge, after which his infantry would gradually gain the upper hand in a protracted engagement.

3. Charge straight at the Boltons and hope that by meeting then head on your infantry won't be hit as badly by the charge and will hold long enough to drag the engagement out and cripple or kill the Boltons horses.

1 isn't viable as the cavalry would reach him before he reached the forest. Any attempt at 1 would quickly turn into a rout/bloodbath, if his mn had eniugh unit cohesion to attempt it in the first place. Chances are the majority of then would run as soon as they saw Stannis retreating. 2 isn't viable as Stannis' men are spread out over a large area meaning getting them to form up into an anti-cavalry formation would be difficult at the best of times and damn nigh impossible in the conditions at Winterfell and with medieval technology(horns or shouting your lungs out. Stannis' army seems to rely on the latter). 3 is Stannis' only realistic option under his circumstances. He had to just charge and hope that his mens morale held long enough that their being infantry would tell and they'd begin to get the better of the engagement. However, if the shots we're shown after the battle are any indication, it didn't and Stannis' men routed with few casualties to the Bolton side. On the subject of a rousing speech, thoughts of food, shelter and warmth vanish quite quickly when you're faced with 2000 heavily armoured men on proper war horses are coming to kill you. Believe it or not, normal horses coming straight at you are scary enough without even taking into account the horses used by medieval knights. It's not until the early modern period that armies are disciplined enough to withstand heavy cavalry charges, and even then most armies in the same situation as Stannis' broke and ran. Imo, he did pretty well.in just persuading his men to fight the Boltons at all instead of just routing on sight.

Hope that answers your question

[ErasmusF]

Well, it's TV. But it did look to me like option 1 was available, since all they really need to do is put the forest on the rear of their formation - it's like having an unlimited number of men because the cavalry can't flank them.

BTW I read that in medieval warfare horses were basically a hindrance. They just got you from point A to point B faster (i.e., flanking) at which points they had to dismount and fight like regular infantry. But if you can get them out of formation, you have an advantage.

[Eldric Storm]

I think it was pretty horrible writing to be honest and find the whole way it was done was completely laughable.

[Stag_legion]

If they retreated to the forest and made solid lines they might have had a chance. The boltons had no lancers ( i didn't see any), so they couldn't just charge home and overwhelm them. But the whole way it played out was really laughable (just walking into cavalry) considering how they mention stannis was supposed to be a great commander.

[Ashlesha]

What was otherwise laughable and B-grade was made look awesome by Stephan Dillane's acting and that one last scene where he kills two men.

The book Stannis did everything a good military leader would have done.

1. Used the wildlings as his army

2. Managed to get support of at least some Northmen to understand the land better

3. Captured another holdfast near Winterfell (Stannis Captures deepwood motte)

4. Secured the future of his house by putting Sheerin in charge and Golden company to protect her.

5. Used Davos to get support of prominent house of White Harbor.

D&D have made a mockery of Stannis.

[Charlie Of House Bucket]

What I especially disliked about it all was that Stannis' cavalry and half his army was gone, okay, but are we to believe that Ramsay knew this? If he didn't, he should have expected a surprise attack out of the woods by the cavalry and maybe wouldn't have led such a bold charge into what he should have thought was only a percentage of a superior force.

I don't know. The whole thing seemed sort of silly. Stannis lacking any scouts at all seemed perhaps the worst part of it though. He should have had sight of enemy troop movements if he was any sort of competent commander at all.

[Stag_legion]

The whole scene (and brienne after) felt like D&D trying to punish stannis for the burning (which they wrote in!), we know the world and especially ASOIAF doesn't work that way. People get away with shit and it only comes to bite them in the ass later on.

[Ashlesha]

To understand the true odds you need to consider the historic battles. There are many example of European battles where horse-riders were at serious odds against smaller infantry armed properly.

1. Longbows and Crossbows are the most effective weapons against cavalry. They even took down Knights. Eg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cr%C3%A9cy

2. Pikes were useful against cavalry too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stirling_Bridge

I think Dany's unsullied would have taken down Bolton's army pretty easily.

3. Finding ground that could have negated speed of horses. I think Stannis should have stayed in woods and found marshy land to face off the Bolton army.

[Ashlesha]

To understand the true odds you need to consider the historic battles. There are many example of European battles where horse-riders were at serious odds against smaller infantry armed properly.

1. Longbows and Crossbows are the most effective weapons against cavalry. They even took down Knights. Eg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cr%C3%A9cy

2. Pikes were useful against cavalry too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stirling_Bridge

I think Dany's unsullied would have taken down Bolton's army pretty easily.

3. Finding ground that could have negated speed of horses. I think Stannis should have stayed in woods and found marshy land to face off the Bolton army.

[Lord Giggles]

@ErasmusF. Maybe I didn't explain my reasoning properly. The reason I thought option 1 wasn't viable was because, A) the morale of Stannis' army was very low. Chances are Stannis wouldn't be able to keep them from routing in a retreat(which on the medieval battlefield was difficult to do anyway, without the enemy beibg mounted. Even modern commanders struggled with keeping an organizing withdrawl turning into a rout). B) The cavalry would have caught up with them before they could put the forest to their back. Horses will outrun men anyday of the week.

On the subject of horses in medieval warfare, they were a hindrance in prolonged melee. On the charge they were fantastic as they're fast, giving you greater impact, could carry q heavily armoured man into combat without him losing too much energy and they were also REALLY big and scary. To disciplined, trained, proffessional troops, they weren't that big of a deal, but to levies they often caused the levies to rout.

@Stag_legion. What do you mean by lancers? Cos it looked to me like most of the Bolton horsemen were carrying a spear. Just curious, not intending to com over aggressive.

[A Ghost of Someone]

Not in the shows, no. when he lost half and Mel left, I knew it would not end well. When I saw the formations, I thought, after all the years, this is it? Wow. Deflation.

[Ashlesha]

To understand the true odds you need to consider the historic battles. There are many example of European battles where horse-riders were at serious odds against smaller infantry armed properly.

1. Longbows and Crossbows are the most effective weapons against cavalry. They even took down Knights. Eg. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Cr%C3%A9cy

2. Pikes were useful against cavalry too. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Stirling_Bridge

I think Dany's unsullied would have taken down Bolton's army pretty easily.

3. Finding ground that could have negated speed of horses. I think Stannis should have stayed in woods and found marshy land to face off the Bolton army.

[Stag_legion]

@ErasmusF. Maybe I didn't explain my reasoning properly. The reason I thought option 1 wasn't viable was because, A) the morale of Stannis' army was very low. Chances are Stannis wouldn't be able to keep them from routing in a retreat(which on the medieval battlefield was difficult to do anyway, without the enemy beibg mounted. Even modern commanders struggled with keeping an organizing withdrawl turning into a rout). B) The cavalry would have caught up with them before they could put the forest to their back. Horses will outrun men anyday of the week.

On the subject of horses in medieval warfare, they were a hindrance in prolonged melee. On the charge they were fantastic as they're fast, giving you greater impact, could carry q heavily armoured man into combat without him losing too much energy and they were also REALLY big and scary. To disciplined, trained, proffessional troops, they weren't that big of a deal, but to levies they often caused the levies to rout.

@Stag_legion. What do you mean by lancers? Cos it looked to me like most of the Bolton horsemen were carrying a spear. Just curious, not intending to com over aggressive.

Lance as in really long spears, a medium length one wouldn't do

https://www.perry-mi.../images/cu8.jpg

Maybe, I missed it, but I didn't really see the cav with long lances.

[Le Cygne]

It was painful to watch, from start to finish, I agree, the only thing worth watching was the actor, Stephen Dillane giving the character some dignity in his final moments. As usual, Brienne was a one-note brute.

[Lord Giggles]

In that case I have to agree with you. I didn't see any lancers either, meaning if Stannis managed to get his men to form up into a dense defensive formation, the Bomtons would have had nearly no chnace of breaking it(see what happened at the battke of the Bannockburn for the result if they had tried)

[TickTak7]

Between having half his men dessert with horses, Selyse kill herself, & Lady Melisandre abandon him, I think he knew that his cause was up.

The attack on Winterfell felt like a suicide mission, and it played out that way. I think that's exactly the way they wanted to portray Stannis in that moment - someone who had been betrayed by the Lord of Light, and as a result, having lost belief in his own ability.

I also think that was why he was so passive when finally confronted by Brienne - he knew his gig was up, and that his attempt for the throne was essentially over.

[StarkofWinterfell]

In that case I have to agree with you. I didn't see any lancers either, meaning if Stannis managed to get his men to form up into a dense defensive formation, the Bomtons would have had nearly no chnace of breaking it(see what happened at the battke of the Bannockburn for the result if they had tried)

I don't mean to come across as an ass here but you need to fix your spelling issues. It's getting rather tiresome trying to read through what you're trying to say.

However, I'll answer your point about the cavalry charge being historically weak in medieval battles. You saw in the show that Stannis was still in column formation and the horse quickly encircled it. If you look quite closely you can see that Stannis' troops are immediately overrun

[Hodor's Dragon]

What was otherwise laughable and B-grade was made look awesome by Stephan Dillane's acting and that one last scene where he kills two men.

The book Stannis did everything a good military leader would have done.

1. Used the wildlings as his army

2. Managed to get support of at least some Northmen to understand the land better

3. Captured another holdfast near Winterfell (Stannis Captures deepwood motte)

4. Secured the future of his house by putting Sheerin in charge and Golden company to protect her.

5. Used Davos to get support of prominent house of White Harbor.

D&D have made a mockery of Stannis.

See bolded.

I thought attacking Winterfell in the winter was suicidal. It didn't matter whether he won or not, he was automatically sacrificing his army, because he would have no chance of getting it out of there in the winter and, without any supplies laid in, the army would surely starve.

[Valhalla Morghulis]

Show Stannis was doomed the moment he treacherously killed his own brother. Brienne reminded us that she would avenge him throughout the seasons and finally did just that. The Shireen thing was an add on and the Battle of Winterfell was not even shown really as the money went on Hardhome instead.