[Spoilers] What if most Northern Lords are now opportunists?

[A Ghost of Someone]

It is kinda funny, how Ramsay marrying Sansa last year was on one hand, treasonous to King's Landing, which never successfully sent and army above the Neck but is was important to unify the North whom ALL HATED THE BOLTONs, except, the ones that hate the Starks more, so, it did not matter. No, the show runners have written themselves into another nonsense situation and are just plowing ahead for dramatic purposes. Whatever? The SmallJon broke Guest Rights and Ramsay is a kinslayer, the two worst violations of the Gods, where especially in the North are taken seriously. I can see where this whole thing is going but I cannot say more. If you get the chance people, even if it takes a long time, get the books or audio versions and enjoy, I promise you, it is so worth it.

[Cas Stark]

2 minutes ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

It is kinda funny, how Ramsay marrying Sansa last year was on one hand, treasonous to King's Landing, which never successfully sent and army above the Neck but is was important to unify the North whom ALL HATED THE BOLTONs, except, the ones that hate the Starks more, so, it did not matter. No, the show runners have written themselves into another nonsense situation and are just plowing ahead for dramatic purposes. Whatever? The SmallJon broke Guest Rights and Ramsay is a kinslayer, the two worst violations of the Gods, where especially in the North are taken seriously. I can see where this whole thing is going but I cannot say more. If you get the chance people, even if it takes a long time, get the books or audio versions and enjoy, I promise you, it is so worth it.

The North plot on the show is insultingly stupid at this point..

They need the Karstarks, Manderlys and Umbers..and for that they needed Sansa, so they could hold the North...but, with no Sansa and being a kinslayer, liege lord killer to boot, Ramsay has the Karstarks and the Umbers anyway, he's 2/3 of the way to what he needs to hold the North and would have been w/out Sansa to start with, LOL.  So, it seems they never needed a Stark in the first place to get the allies they needed.

The whole arc is pure nonsense now.

[A Ghost of Someone]

1 minute ago, Cas Stark said:

The North plot on the show is insultingly stupid at this point..

They need the Karstarks, Manderlys and Umbers..and for that they needed Sansa, so they could hold the North...but, with no Sansa and being a kinslayer, liege lord killer to boot, Ramsay has the Karstarks and the Umbers anyway, he's 2/3 of the way to what he needs to hold the North and would have been w/out Sansa to start with, LOL.  So, it seems they never needed a Stark in the first place to get the allies they needed.

The whole arc is pure nonsense now.

The worst was having Sansa there last year but whatever. I can see what their priorities are. I wonder how many Northern Lords we will meet this year?

[lancerman]

4 hours ago, kissdbyfire said:

I disagree. Ramsay "can't kill Rickon" because it would undermine his claim? Doesn't make sense, especially because the houses siding with Ramsay are anti-Stark apparently, and wouldn't care about Rickon's death. Also, Sansa is Sansa Bolton now, until Ramsay is dead or the marriage annulled, something that won't happen. But despite all this, Ramsay will kill Rickon. 

As to the Smalljon's reasons, even if he hates the Starks and Boltons and plans on turning on Ramsay, why on earth would he hand over his biggest asset? You said so yourself. Why not keep Rickon and use him to either rally the north or as a bargaining chip? If he has any sort of plan that is different from what he said to Ramsay, then the whole plot becomes even dumber, and the Smalljon becomes one of the stupidest characters ever. 

Ramsay isn't worried about the houses that are siding with him. He's worried about the pro Stark houses. He loses them forever if he kills Rickon. Meaning he's fresh meat for an assault from the Crownlands. 

Also with Sansa gone her marriage doesn't matter any more than her marriage to Tyrion's. She meets up with Jon, goes to the pro Stark houses, convinces them that Ramsay was a monster, he's holding Rickon hostage, and that they should take back Winterfell in her name, add an army of wildlings. Bye bye Boltons. 

Especially if the plan is to use Rickon to get the Umbers inside Ramsay's ranks to keep an eye on Rickon and betray Ramsay mid battle. 

[lancerman]

34 minutes ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

The worst was having Sansa there last year but whatever. I can see what their priorities are. I wonder how many Northern Lords we will meet this year?

That actually makes sense too. Littlefinger used her as a plant to get the crown to sanction a Vale strike on the North. Regardless of what happens, if the Vale wins, Littlefinger holds the two most strategic locations in Westeros with two of the better armies. 

The only caveat is that you have to accept that Littlefinger doesn't really care about Sansa. Either she lives, and he saved her, which is more reason for the North and Riverrun to side with him. Or she dies and he doesn't have to worry about Cersie retaliating. Either way he comes out in a great position compared to anyone else.

[Cas Stark]

7 minutes ago, lancerman said:

That actually makes sense too. Littlefinger used her as a plant to get the crown to sanction a Vale strike on the North. Regardless of what happens, if the Vale wins, Littlefinger holds the two most strategic locations in Westeros with two of the better armies. 

The only caveat is that you have to accept that Littlefinger doesn't really care about Sansa. Either she lives, and he saved her, which is more reason for the North and Riverrun to side with him. Or she dies and he doesn't have to worry about Cersie retaliating. Either way he comes out in a great position compared to anyone else.

Ehm, how is LF going to hold the North without a Stark?  Answer:  he can't.  No one can. Especially not a Southerner.

The IT isn't going to send any re-enforcements, the Vale army can't stay in the North without leaving the Vale unprotected.  So, he, like anyone else, can only hold the North if the North allows itself to be held, and there is absolutely no reason that a Southern nobody could keep the North without a Stark.  He might be able to "take" WF, but he will never control the North.  Which, again, re enforces the fact that his plan is stupid.

[A Ghost of Someone]

The Vale are Lannister subbordinates? I thought they were Isolationists. The Vale hates the Lannisters and think they killed Jon Arryn, who was beloved by them. They kept out of The War of The Five Kings because their Lorrd, Robin was a minor child and his mother Lysa Arryn Tully was his regent and she forbid them from getting involved but she is (secretly doing everything LF told her to and not to do). Lysa then marries a renown Pimp, Master of Coin and upjumped to Lord status by the same hated Lannisters, who kills her under mysterious circumstances until he is saved by Sansa Stark. Now, only through the technicality of him being the none- blood related mind you and all, stepfather of their lord, he, Petyr Baelish, aka "Littlefinger" is in full control of the Vale and all swords, Lords and other vassals owe him complete "obedience" is utterly F-ING REDICULOUS. If LF has to "convince" Sweet Robin to act then showing this, LF has no power or authority in the Vale after all. The show is really confusing this situation and it makes no sense.

As for Sansa, she was sent to WF by the show runners for one reason alone, the wedding to Ramsay and every night afterward. The Vale should have reached out to Stannis when they had Sansa and kept her safe but supported him.

By logic, LF should be strung and hung but he won't, not now anyway. At the very least, Royce should tell him to pack up permanently and go back to Cersie, his Master, Domina or whatever else he calls her, he is training Sweet Robin and LF is no longer needed nor does he have a right to be in the Vale.

[lancerman]

Just now, Cas Stark said:

Ehm, how is LF going to hold the North without a Stark?  Answer:  he can't.  No one can. Especially not a Southerner.

The IT isn't going to send any re-enforcements, the Vale army can't stay in the North without leaving the Vale unprotected.  So, he, like anyone else, can only hold the North if the North allows itself to be held, and there is absolutely no reason that a Southern nobody could keep the North without a Stark.  He might be able to "take" WF, but he will never control the North.  Which, again, re enforces the fact that his plan is stupid.

In this situation Littlefinger has just obliterated Ramsay's half northern army with the Knights of the Vale, no Stark exists at the moment to challenge him, and the crown is backing him.

The only Lords powerful enough to challenge him hated the guy he ousted and have no Stark to rally around (Littlefinger has no knowledge that Bran and Rickon weren't killed by Theon and that Arya is alive). 

Hes going off what he thinks he knows and is planning on realpolitik prevailing. Unless the a Northerners all agree on some other Lord to rally around, what are they going to do?

[Maid So Fair]

6 hours ago, The Baelish Mockingbird said:

As I explained, just because us show watchers have seen snippets of moments where Roose will admit they don't have the support or the South will solidify their lack of care doesn't mean that everyone in the North would be just as informed. I think half of Cersei's chapters in the book are her cursing out the North anyway.

I'm not sure why they would give out Rickon and I do accept that at this very moment it does seem like that would be going nowhere but I'll be interested in seeing how they pull it off.

I don't think you would need to be particularly well-informed to realise any of this. Sansa being wanted for Joffreys murder, and her marriage to Ramsay were major events. In fact, without the North being aware of the marriage it is completely pointless.

Besides, Smallion seems to be extremely well informed. He shows up in WF to deal with Ramsay seemingly after Rooses death and seems well aware that he didn't die of poisoning.

[Cas Stark]

2 minutes ago, lancerman said:

In this situation Littlefinger has just obliterated Ramsay's half northern army with the Knights of the Vale, no Stark exists at the moment to challenge him, and the crown is backing him.

The only Lords powerful enough to challenge him hated the guy he ousted and have no Stark to rally around (Littlefinger has no knowledge that Bran and Rickon weren't killed by Theon and that Arya is alive). 

Hes going off what he thinks he knows and is planning on realpolitik prevailing. Unless the a Northerners all agree on some other Lord to rally around, what are they going to do?

The North will never be ruled by a Southerner.  Full Stop.  Which is why putting Sansa at risk was stupid.

Cersei already said in season 1 that the North could never be ruled by an outsider, it was too big and too wild.

LF is an outsider.  The North would never be ruled by him without a Stark.  Especially since he has no pedigree.

So, yes, indeed, the North would rally around another lord if all the Starks are gone.

But, this doesn't really matter, if a person doesn't perceive the full stupidity of LF Show plan by now, for all parties involved, Sansa, the Boltons and LF himself, then they never will and we already know that in the show, Sansa isn't dead, so his "risk" cough, cough paid off.

[lancerman]

2 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

The North will never be ruled by a Southerner.  Full Stop.  Which is why putting Sansa at risk was stupid.

Cersei already said in season 1 that the North could never be ruled by an outsider, it was too big and too wild.

LF is an outsider.  The North would never be ruled by him without a Stark.  Especially since he has no pedigree.

So, yes, indeed, the North would rally around another lord if all the Starks are gone.

But, this doesn't really matter, if a person doesn't perceive the full stupidity of LF Show plan by now, for all parties involved, Sansa, the Boltons and LF himself, then they never will and we already know that in the show, Sansa isn't dead, so his "risk" cough, cough paid off.

See that's something you're saying but reality is that if you have the power you can rule anything. Aegon made the last king bow. Roose shoved a knife in Robb Stark, betrayed the entire Northen cause, and was about as close to a ruler the North had after. 

The Northerners are not in a strong position. The family who ruled them is scattered and had their whole castle burned down. A good chunk of them are supporting the Boltons and will probably fall with them. The rest are not going to be in strong position to challenge whoever ousts Ramsay. 

Thats just meaningless phrase to me. 

[Maid So Fair]

13 minutes ago, lancerman said:

In this situation Littlefinger has just obliterated Ramsay's half northern army with the Knights of the Vale, no Stark exists at the moment to challenge him, and the crown is backing him.

The only Lords powerful enough to challenge him hated the guy he ousted and have no Stark to rally around (Littlefinger has no knowledge that Bran and Rickon weren't killed by Theon and that Arya is alive). 

Hes going off what he thinks he knows and is planning on realpolitik prevailing. Unless the a Northerners all agree on some other Lord to rally around, what are they going to do?

Hole themselves up in their castles and wait until LF's army runs out of food and patience and has to leave? 

[lancerman]

1 minute ago, Maid So Fair said:

Hole themselves up in their castles and wait until LF's army runs out of food and patience and has to leave? 

Littlefinger would have the biggest army in the region and he would be able to funnel supplies from the Vale. 

Whatever is left of the entire North would need to align to have a modicum of a chance against taking anything from him or opposing him in any significant combat. And that's assuming they dislike him more than Roose. A lot of them are going to find the guy who ousted the people who betrayed the Starks to be a lot more palpable than being ruled by Roose Bolton. 

[TheCasualObserver]

30 minutes ago, lancerman said:

That actually makes sense too. Littlefinger used her as a plant to get the crown to sanction a Vale strike on the North. Regardless of what happens, if the Vale wins, Littlefinger holds the two most strategic locations in Westeros with two of the better armies. 

The only caveat is that you have to accept that Littlefinger doesn't really care about Sansa. Either she lives, and he saved her, which is more reason for the North and Riverrun to side with him. Or she dies and he doesn't have to worry about Cersie retaliating. Either way he comes out in a great position compared to anyone else.

I disagree. First, giving Sansa away rather than using any other method to convince Cersei (off the top of my head - lying) to sanction his attack is idiotic. In the event she made no effort to check what he was saying is true and was persuaded in a five minute conversation, which suggests that LF woefully overestimated her commitment to the Boltons in the first place.

Second, it doesn't really matter that we accept LF doesn't care about Sansa, because she is still his most valuable political asset squandered on a faction renowned for its cruelty and treachery. (Ramsay's own psychopathy being secret is actually not terribly relevant to the equation) In the long term, LF knows he needs a Stark to avoid the exact same position the Boltons found themselves in. Niether Stark loyalists, nor the Vale have any particular allegiance to LF is Sansa dies in the battle and none at all if he sends her to Cersei. So this is a short term plan at best, with a break from the iron throne necessarily at some point anyway (otherwise why bother getting Cersei in trouble with the faith). 

To use Sansa in an unnecassary false flag operation rather than a genuine marriage alliance will always be wasteful, no matter how the show or the writers dress it up. There can be no success here other than at the pen of D and D.

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, Cas Stark said:

The North plot on the show is insultingly stupid at this point..

They need the Karstarks, Manderlys and Umbers..and for that they needed Sansa, so they could hold the North...but, with no Sansa and being a kinslayer, liege lord killer to boot, Ramsay has the Karstarks and the Umbers anyway, he's 2/3 of the way to what he needs to hold the North and would have been w/out Sansa to start with, LOL.  So, it seems they never needed a Stark in the first place to get the allies they needed.

The whole arc is pure nonsense now.

And it will probably reach new levels of absurd when LF makes his pitch to Royce and the Vale lords. 

 

[Cas Stark]

28 minutes ago, lancerman said:

 

LF doesn't have dragons.  
 

So what power does he have in the Nortth?  Is the Vale army going to move North?  No. They still need to protect the Vale so there is no way he can hold the North indefinitely..as Cersei said, and as "Yara" both said on the show.  

[Cas Stark]

9 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Littlefinger would have the biggest army in the region and he would be able to funnel supplies from the Vale. 

Whatever is left of the entire North would need to align to have a modicum of a chance against taking anything from him or opposing him in any significant combat. And that's assuming they dislike him more than Roose. A lot of them are going to find the guy who ousted the people who betrayed the Starks to be a lot more palpable than being ruled by Roose Bolton. 

Why?  When they could be ruled by a Mormont or a Manderly instead?  

[Cas Stark]

8 minutes ago, TheCasualObserver said:

I disagree. First, giving Sansa away rather than using any other method to convince Cersei (off the top of my head - lying) to sanction his attack is idiotic. In the event she made no effort to check what he was saying is true and was persuaded in a five minute conversation, which suggests that LF woefully overestimated her commitment to the Boltons in the first place.

Second, it doesn't really matter that we accept LF doesn't care about Sansa, because she is still his most valuable political asset squandered on a faction renowned for its cruelty and treachery. (Ramsay's own psychopathy being secret is actually not terribly relevant to the equation) In the long term, LF knows he needs a Stark to avoid the exact same position the Boltons found themselves in. Niether Stark loyalists, nor the Vale have any particular allegiance to LF is Sansa dies in the battle and none at all if he sends her to Cersei. So this is a short term plan at best, with a break from the iron throne necessarily at some point anyway (otherwise why bother getting Cersei in trouble with the faith). 

To use Sansa in an unnecassary false flag operation rather than a genuine marriage alliance will always be wasteful, no matter how the show or the writers dress it up. There can be no success here other than at the pen of D and D.

I agree this was a plot hole.

In order not to be either blackmailed or executed he would need to make sure that EVERY SINGLE PERSON who knew he rode North with Sansa Stark was dead, elsewise he'd be arrested by Cersei...and given how fast ravens fly around in the snow...it stands to reason that this is inevitable unless he kills every single person outside of Sansa.

[The Baelish Mockingbird]

56 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

I don't think you would need to be particularly well-informed to realise any of this. Sansa being wanted for Joffreys murder, and her marriage to Ramsay were major events. In fact, without the North being aware of the marriage it is completely pointless.

Besides, Smallion seems to be extremely well informed. He shows up in WF to deal with Ramsay seemingly after Rooses death and seems well aware that he didn't die of poisoning.

I mean, him arriving after Roose's death could be a coincedence but you have a point about the rest.

[lancerman]

22 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

Why?  When they could be ruled by a Mormont or a Manderly instead?  

Because everyone else would have to agree to step aside so Manderly or Mormont could rule them for no reason besides the sake of being ruled by a Northerner. Literally just to align with your belief that they need to be ruled by a Northerner. Which I'm sorry, being Northern house isn't a good enough reason for everyone else to just agree to fall in line behind someone. If it was, they would just suck it up and get in line with the Bolton's who actually have a history of contending for the North.

They were ruled by the Starks because of thousands of years of history. They were split in being ruled by the Boltons because they were installed by the crown after betraying the Starks. There is no reason for them to all to get in line behind anybody at this point unless it's a returning Stark. They want to be ruled by a house they all respect. And a lot of them don't even respect the Starks anymore.