[Spoilers] What if most Northern Lords are now opportunists?

[kissdbyfire]

Who doesn't respect the Starks and why don't they? Where was this stated, which northerner did we see saying that? Ramsay, and now Karstark and Umber obviously don't, but even in that scene there was no mention of the north not respecting the Starks anymore iirc. The only instance I remember where the Starks were specifically mentioned was Stannis reading Lyanna Mormont's letter to Jon last season, and we all know what she said.

[lancerman]

36 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

LF doesn't have dragons.  
 

So what power does he have in the Nortth?  Is the Vale army going to move North?  No. They still need to protect the Vale so there is no way he can hold the North indefinitely..as Cersei said, and as "Yara" both said on the show.  

LOL. The Vale is the only region in the whole of Westeros who didn't piss anybody off during the WOT5K's. Who does the Vale need to be protected from?

The Lannister's? They think they have an alliance with Littlefinger. Dorne? A little preoccupied at the moment. The Ironborn? Are they going to make the same mistake they just made? The North won't have the time. Highgarden? Why, assuming they come out in this struggle with Cersie they would inherit the alliance.

Rivverun? Maybe, but why? The heir apparent is a Tully.

[lancerman]

2 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Who doesn't respect the Starks and why don't they? Where was this stated, which northerner did we see saying that? Ramsay, and now Karstark and Umber obviously don't, but even in that scene there was no mention of the north not respecting the Starks anymore iirc. The only instance I remember where the Starks were specifically mentioned was Stannis reading Lyanna Mormont's letter to Jon last season, and we all know what she said.

The problem with this idea is that. The Bolton's, the Karstarks, and if you believe the Umbers, are three of the largest houses in the North. That's not an insignificant amount of the North.

Those 3 and anybody that fell in line before the Bolton's. That's a good a deal North. That's some of the North's most powerful actions.

You missed my point ENTIRELY. It was that the North is split up right now. And if the faction supporting the Bolton's gets wiped out. That makes a unified North that much weaker.

[Cas Stark]

5 minutes ago, lancerman said:

LOL. The Vale is the only region in the whole of Westeros who didn't piss anybody off during the WOT5K's. Who does the Vale need to be protected from?

The Lannister's? They think they have an alliance with Littlefinger. Dorne? A little preoccupied at the moment. The Ironborn? Are they going to make the same mistake they just made? The North won't have the time. Highgarden? Why, assuming they come out in this struggle with Cersie they would inherit the alliance.

Rivverun? Maybe, but why? The heir apparent is a Tully.

So you think the Vale army, which is basically the majority of all males of fighting age can leave the Vale PERMANENTLY, because that's what you are saying, LF would need an army of his own to have any chance to hold the North......and there will be on consequences?  The hill tribes won't become more aggressive?  Other areas won't sooner or later realize the Vale and it's awesomely protected farmland is totally unprotected?  Alrighty then.

We'll have to agree to disagree here.  The show has made it clear more than once than the North cannot be ruled by outsider.  So, you choose to believe something else, that an upjumped nobody from the Vale can credibly take over instead of a Northern house.  

[Maid So Fair]

57 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Littlefinger would have the biggest army in the region and he would be able to funnel supplies from the Vale. 

Whatever is left of the entire North would need to align to have a modicum of a chance against taking anything from him or opposing him in any significant combat. And that's assuming they dislike him more than Roose. A lot of them are going to find the guy who ousted the people who betrayed the Starks to be a lot more palpable than being ruled by Roose Bolton. 

The supply lines to achieve that for any significant period would be insane, especially without conteolling the White Harbour and having a sizeable fleet. The IB had complete naval supremacy and still failed miserably. Stannis,  unlike LF an accomplished war commander, would now be dead if he didn't have the support of the Jorhern clans and a Stark for an advisor.

Invading the North is like invading Russia except it's winter ALL THE TIME.

Why would why need to oppose him in combat? They can just ignore him and wait until the Vale lords get tired of pouring resources into a futile campaign.

[lancerman]

1 minute ago, Maid So Fair said:

The supply lines to achieve that for any significant period would be insane, especially without conteolling the White Harbour and having a sizeable fleet. The IB had complete naval supremacy and still failed miserably. Stannis,  unlike LF an accomplished war commander, would now be dead if he didn't have the support of the Jorhern clans and a Stark for an advisor.

Invading the North is like invading Russia except it's winter ALL THE TIME.

Why would why need to oppose him in combat? They can just ignore him and wait until the Vale lords get tired of pouring resources into a futile campaign.

Actually it's like invading a split up version of Russia where all the houses are divided, a good chunk won't lift a finger to help the house with the most power, and there is no centralized leader, and the invading country shares a coastal border and could just take the bottom half and ship out supplies. Oh and a lot of people are going to be very happy with whoever kills the head of the current biggest house.

That's more what it's like.

[lancerman]

The North at this point in time is not the same North as the one that started the series. It's not unified, power is centralized around a house most of the people hate, they just went through a major war with huge losses including the loss of the one family who was actually able to control them, and their is not enough unity to rally any of the houses against another cause. Only Stark could completely unify the North.

I'm sure Littlefinger is fine taking Winterfell, folding up the craps into his forces, and trying to use the goodwill he got from beating the Bolton's to establishing some relationships with the other houses, while he has the title of Warden of the North. He doesn't need to fight everyone. He just needs to be the dominant power there and get people to not want to attack him.

[kissdbyfire]

37 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Because everyone else would have to agree to step aside so Manderly or Mormont could rule them for no reason besides the sake of being ruled by a Northerner. Literally just to align with your belief that they need to be ruled by a Northerner. Which I'm sorry, being Northern house isn't a good enough reason for everyone else to just agree to fall in line behind someone. If it was, they would just suck it up and get in line with the Bolton's who actually have a history of contending for the North.

They were ruled by the Starks because of thousands of years of history. They were split in being ruled by the Boltons because they were installed by the crown after betraying the Starks. There is no reason for them to all to get in line behind anybody at this point unless it's a returning Stark. They want to be ruled by a house they all respect. [b_And a lot of them don't even respect the Starks anymore.[/b]

 

I didn't miss your point "ENTIRELY", you said a lot of the northerners don't respect the Starks anymore, and that was never shown. The Boltons made a power grab, and even the Karstarks and Umbers, the Boltons' allies, never really offered a reason other than the Smalljon saying he would have killed his father too, and that Jon the bastard let the wildlings through. That's not the same as the northerners don't respect the Starks. The whole northern plot is insane and absurd. Please, what is the deal with all the kinslaying? Everyone and their dogs are totally in favour of it, from Dorne to the North! Ramsay killed his father, and the Smalljon says he would have done the same had the Greatjon not died. Worse, it's made clear that no one believes that Roose was poisoned, they all know Ramsay killed him, and they're all totally cool with it. It's utterly stupid, and it's another example of how unbelievably lazy the writing is. 

[lancerman]

7 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I didn't miss your point "ENTIRELY", you said a lot of the northerners don't respect the Starks anymore, and that was never shown. The Boltons made a power grab, and even the Karstarks and Umbers, the Boltons' allies, never really offered a reason other than the Smalljon saying he would have killed his father too, and that Jon the bastard let the wildlings through. That's not the same as the northerners don't respect the Starks. The whole northern plot is insane and absurd. Please, what is the deal with all the kinslaying? Everyone and their dogs are totally in favour of it, from Dorne to the North! Ramsay killed his father, and the Smalljon says he would have done the same had the Greatjon not died. Worse, it's made clear that no one believes that Roose was poisoned, they all know Ramsay killed him, and they're all totally cool with it. It's utterly stupid, and it's another example of how unbelievably lazy the writing is. 

Yeah, everyone who is aligned with the Bolton's including the Bolton's probably don't have a lot of respect for  the Starks if they are just accepting the fact that the man who put a knife Robb Stark is holding Winterfell? Why wasn't their a giant Northern Rebellion against them in the books or the show? Obviously the North isn't as unified as you seem to think it is.

[bemused]

There is a giant Northern Rebellion against them in the books. All the signs are there. The show has just chosen not to develop that storyline. Instead of developing the intrigue running just under the surface in the books, they've opted for over developing Ramsay and torture-porn sensationalism.

[Cas Stark]

49 minutes ago, lancerman said:

Yeah, everyone who is aligned with the Bolton's including the Bolton's probably don't have a lot of respect for  the Starks if they are just accepting the fact that the man who put a knife Robb Stark is holding Winterfell? Why wasn't their a giant Northern Rebellion against them in the books or the show? Obviously the North isn't as unified as you seem to think it is.

Or, maybe the show writing is just sloppy and lazy and attempting to get it all to make sense from the various motivations and POVs of other Northern houses is an exercise in futility....because they will act however the show wants them to act, no matter how silly or illogical it is in the context of what the show has presented.

It's true that the show has not presented anyone that is still loyal to the Starks except the old woman peasant, and House Mormont, whether that is by design or by poor story construction is anyone's guess, given the show's propensity for plot holes though, I wouldn't read too much into it.

The show had an easy opportunity to give us a sense of where the North stands at Sansa's wedding.  But, instead of devoting 2 or 3 minutes to the Northern lords talking amongst themselves, they didn't bother to even name any of them, and it can't even be known for certain if those were Northern lords or just other Bolton bannermen...that is the level of story construction we're dealing with.

 

[Maid So Fair]

1 hour ago, lancerman said:

The North at this point in time is not the same North as the one that started the series. It's not unified, power is centralized around a house most of the people hate, they just went through a major war with huge losses including the loss of the one family who was actually able to control them, and their is not enough unity to rally any of the houses against another cause. Only Stark could completely unify the North.

I'm sure Littlefinger is fine taking Winterfell, folding up the craps into his forces, and trying to use the goodwill he got from beating the Bolton's to establishing some relationships with the other houses, while he has the title of Warden of the North. He doesn't need to fight everyone. He just needs to be the dominant power there and get people to not want to attack him.

So only a Stark can fully unify a North. LF had a Stark and threw her away in exchange for FA and this was somehow a good move?

He can't be the dominant force for more than a very shortterm there, which is kind of the point. He needs support of the people and he has nothing to offer them. Even if he kills some Boltons it's like when Balon asked for an alliance with the Lannisters AFTER he attacked the North - why pay for something you're getting for free?  Most importantly,  LF is incapable of inspiring loyalty in the people around him and he has no powerbase of his own. For him to remain a dominant force, the Vale army would have to stay in the North, which would bleendtheir resources . Why would they do that for a man they only tolerate because Sansa (who he sold to the Boltons) put in a good word for him? If they follow him North it will be for him not for him - they gain nothing from helping LF establish himself as a ruler of the North. He has no way of stopping the Vale lords from going home just as he has no way of making the Northern lords his own. He's constantly  relying on other people's goodwill and I think in both the books and the show (if it follows logic) it will run out soon. LF is good at manipulating people behind the scenes but he's not a leader people will follow.

Sure, the North is divided - but those that won't lift a finger to help the Boltons have no reason to lift a finger to help LF either. And foreign invasion has a way of unifying people. Being happy with someone killing your enemies is pretty different from making that someone your leader and being loyal to him. As for naval supplies, LF has no fleet, no suppoet of the Manderlys that control that coastline, and that kind of thing would cost a lot of money and resources even if possible that the Vale lords have no reason to extend for someone they don't like and barely trust. 

[kissdbyfire]

1 hour ago, lancerman said:

Yeah, everyone who is aligned with the Bolton's including the Bolton's probably don't have a lot of respect for  the Starks if they are just accepting the fact that the man who put a knife Robb Stark is holding Winterfell? Why wasn't their a giant Northern Rebellion against them in the books or the show? Obviously the North isn't as unified as you seem to think it is.

Who died in the RW other Robb, Cat, Talisa and foetus Ned? Some red shirt with a merman pin? LOL

[lancerman]

48 minutes ago, Maid So Fair said:

So only a Stark can fully unify a North. LF had a Stark and threw her away in exchange for FA and this was somehow a good move?

He can't be the dominant force for more than a very shortterm there, which is kind of the point. He needs support of the people and he has nothing to offer them. Even if he kills some Boltons it's like when Balon asked for an alliance with the Lannisters AFTER he attacked the North - why pay for something you're getting for free?  Most importantly,  LF is incapable of inspiring loyalty in the people around him and he has no powerbase of his own. For him to remain a dominant force, the Vale army would have to stay in the North, which would bleendtheir resources . Why would they do that for a man they only tolerate because Sansa (who he sold to the Boltons) put in a good word for him? If they follow him North it will be for him not for him - they gain nothing from helping LF establish himself as a ruler of the North. He has no way of stopping the Vale lords from going home just as he has no way of making the Northern lords his own. He's constantly  relying on other people's goodwill and I think in both the books and the show (if it follows logic) it will run out soon. LF is good at manipulating people behind the scenes but he's not a leader people will follow.

Sure, the North is divided - but those that won't lift a finger to help the Boltons have no reason to lift a finger to help LF either. And foreign invasion has a way of unifying people. Being happy with someone killing your enemies is pretty different from making that someone your leader and being loyal to him. As for naval supplies, LF has no fleet, no suppoet of the Manderlys that control that coastline, and that kind of thing would cost a lot of money and resources even if possible that the Vale lords have no reason to extend for someone they don't like and barely trust. 

 

Littlefinger doesn't care if he has a unified North. He'd rather be the dominant force in a fractured North, while maintaining the Vale, and having the backing of the crown. It still makes him one of the most powerful Lords in the realm.

And yeah he can  be the dominant force for quite awhile. There is no one left to oppose him. And why would anybody who isn't actively fighting the Boltons, oppose LF?

This whole discussion is going off a platitude that the North is going to by proxy reject any southerner who tries to have some dominion over it. They didn't even actively fight against Roose. It's words at this point. Show me the action, then we can have something concrete.

 

[A Ghost of Someone]

1 hour ago, Maid So Fair said:

So only a Stark can fully unify a North. LF had a Stark and threw her away in exchange for FA and this was somehow a good move?

He can't be the dominant force for more than a very shortterm there, which is kind of the point. He needs support of the people and he has nothing to offer them. Even if he kills some Boltons it's like when Balon asked for an alliance with the Lannisters AFTER he attacked the North - why pay for something you're getting for free?  Most importantly,  LF is incapable of inspiring loyalty in the people around him and he has no powerbase of his own. For him to remain a dominant force, the Vale army would have to stay in the North, which would bleendtheir resources . Why would they do that for a man they only tolerate because Sansa (who he sold to the Boltons) put in a good word for him? If they follow him North it will be for him not for him - they gain nothing from helping LF establish himself as a ruler of the North. He has no way of stopping the Vale lords from going home just as he has no way of making the Northern lords his own. He's constantly  relying on other people's goodwill and I think in both the books and the show (if it follows logic) it will run out soon. LF is good at manipulating people behind the scenes but he's not a leader people will follow.

Sure, the North is divided - but those that won't lift a finger to help the Boltons have no reason to lift a finger to help LF either. And foreign invasion has a way of unifying people. Being happy with someone killing your enemies is pretty different from making that someone your leader and being loyal to him. As for naval supplies, LF has no fleet, no suppoet of the Manderlys that control that coastline, and that kind of thing would cost a lot of money and resources even if possible that the Vale lords have no reason to extend for someone they don't like and barely trust. 

 

Littlefinger does not know that Brandon and Rickon are still alive. Jon and is circumstances surrounding his death, resurrection and being free of his Night's Watch vows will concern him because, I think he wants Sansa for his bride and her for her claim. Littlefinger is banking on it. you can bet that while the Vale Lords are going to defeat the Boltons anyway, LF, if he meets Sansa before this, will make it look like they will ONLY on LF's order. He will bribe Sansa for the Vale's help in exchange for marriage to him when Ramsay is gone. Sansa, not knowing otherwise, will agree. That is my biggest fear at the end of this season.

[TheCasualObserver]

1 hour ago, A Ghost of Someone said:

Littlefinger does not know that Brandon and Rickon are still alive. Jon and is circumstances surrounding his death, resurrection and being free of his Night's Watch vows will concern him because, I think he wants Sansa for his bride and her for her claim. Littlefinger is banking on it. you can bet that while the Vale Lords are going to defeat the Boltons anyway, LF, if he meets Sansa before this, will make it look like they will ONLY on LF's order. He will bribe Sansa for the Vale's help in exchange for marriage to him when Ramsay is gone. Sansa, not knowing otherwise, will agree. That is my biggest fear at the end of this season.

And then... she never talks to one of the Vale lords again? And if he does plan on marrying her in the end, why put through the ringer with Ramsay before hand?

[lancerman]

15 minutes ago, TheCasualObserver said:

And then... she never talks to one of the Vale lords again? And if he does plan on marrying her in the end, why put through the ringer with Ramsay before hand?

"I didn't know he was that bad Sansa". "I brought all the knights of the Vale to rescue you as soon as I got the news".

[kissdbyfire]

16 minutes ago, lancerman said:

"I didn't know he was that bad Sansa". "I brought all the knights of the Vale to rescue you as soon as I got the news".

Which is really hard to believe. That he knew nothing about Ramsay and his erhm... proclivities. And what about the Vale lords? What is Littlefinger going to tell them so that they'll go along with the plan? Is he meeting Sansa before heading north? It's more likely that he will make his pitch to the Vale lords, and then goes north with the Vale army, where he'll meet Sansa. So, what is he going to tell Royce and the others? Even if the Vale lords vanish and it's just Royce, what will LF tell him? He can't say he came up with this genius idea of marrying Sansa Stark to Ramsay Bolton, he told Royce he was taking her to the Fingers, right? So, is he going to say she was kidnapped? Or did she run away on her own and ended up in Winterfell? Absurd, it's all absurd and insane.

[A Ghost of Someone]

34 minutes ago, TheCasualObserver said:

And then... she never talks to one of the Vale lords again? And if he does plan on marrying her in the end, why put through the ringer with Ramsay before hand?

I think he messed up and figured Stannis would win. The show Finger made a mistake, was reckless with Sansa. Something his book counterpart would not do. LF never counted on Sansa being raped and escaping. I do think LF will somehow ensure that Lord Royce dies so that Sansa cannot go to him and tell what REALLY happened as to how she got into the possession of the Boltons.

By even show logic, LF should be on very thin ice, but does not know it yet. When he eventually meets up with Sansa again will be interesting and probably infuriating as I fear the show is going to let him off the hook in the end. That or he makes his own "path" out of it.

[A Ghost of Someone]

7 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Which is really hard to believe. That he knew nothing about Ramsay and his erhm... proclivities. And what about the Vale lords? What is Littlefinger going to tell them so that they'll go along with the plan? Is he meeting Sansa before heading north? It's more likely that he will make his pitch to the Vale lords, and then goes north with the Vale army, where he'll meet Sansa. So, what is he going to tell Royce and the others? Even if the Vale lords vanish and it's just Royce, what will LF tell him? He can't say he came up with this genius idea of marrying Sansa Stark to Ramsay Bolton, he told Royce he was taking her to the Fingers, right? So, is he going to say she was kidnapped? Or did she run away on her own and ended up in Winterfell? Absurd, it's all absurd and insane.

Exactly and it is a huge potential "Pitfall" for Batfinger.