How Tywin Took Lyanna with the Porcupine Knight

[Sly Wren]

8 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

If you think Tywin planned the kidnapping of Lyanna could also the father of Jon Snow be another? Maybe one of those unsavoury knights took "revenge" on Lyanna?

It is an option. But I think the better chance is someone she ended up with --Rhaegar or Arthur.

Though I am largely basing that on symbolism surrounding Jon vs. practicality or logistics. 

7 hours ago, NutBurz said:

This makes a lot of sense.

The people who captured Lyanna didn´t even have to do it in the name of the prince, but in the name of the King, and most people who heard the news would still probably put some share of responsibility on both of them.

1. Thanks! 

2. You're absolutely right about who took her. When Jon Arryn dies, no one asserts he's poisoned until Lysa sends her letter blaming the Lannisters. That sets up the mess that gets Baelish his war.

So, all those who took Lyanna have to do is take her. Then someone needs to tell Brandon (as someone clearly did) that Rhaegar did it. And BOOM! That gets it done regardless of what those who took her said to do so.

6 hours ago, House Cambodia said:

Sly Wren - superbly well thought out and quite plausible, imo.

Thank you! 

6 hours ago, The Great and Mighty Poo said:

Read short version Rhaegar went along because some arbitrary reason....  yeanoo.

HA! If Rhaegar did it for arbitrary reasons he deserved Robert's hammer to the chest.

No--not remotely arbitrary: Rhaegar needs his father off of the throne. A great council might push Aerys off, but it would likely still result in some kind of war. No way that would end up pretty. The Targs have plenty of history showing what happens when they fight each other for power. But if others take Aerys out for him, Rhaegar is in a much better position.

And it would explain why on earth he sat out the war.

[Sly Wren]

5 hours ago, Beacon said:

This seems logical but doesn't explain why Rhaegar would leave the three Kingsguard to protect Lyanna at the Tower of Joy. He wouldn't leave them there unless she was going to have a royal baby.

Even if they were just there to protect her, there wouldn't be a need to keep all three Kingsguard there. Rhaegar could just leave one of them there and take the other two along with him.

Well, this is getting into arguments on the tower that we are unlikely to solve until the books come out.

But 1: we don't know if the 3 Kingsguard are "guarding" the tower or meeting Ned in the pass at the tower to fight him off. While Lyanna is elsewhere.

2. We don't know why they are with Lyanna--are they guarding her as a hostage? Protecting her from others (Aerys, etc.)? Holding her until the opportune moment as Baelish does with Sansa?

3. And as for Rhaegar leaving them in Dorne, we assume that's because Rhaegar's expecting a child with Lyanna. But if he's expecting a child with another woman, say Ashara Dayne, then leaving the Kingsguard in Dorne with her also works.

ETA: Plus, if Lyanna fell for the man who "saved" her, she could be having his child.

In short, until we have more information, the reason the 3 Kingsguard are left in Dorne has more than a few options. Rhaegar ordered them there, but why he did so--the books aren't telling us yet. 

5 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Maybe he wanted to keep the kingsguard away from Aerys?

That is a definitely an option--especially with Hightower who seemed very dedicated to the "don't question the king" aspect of being a Kingsguard.

As @Voice points out, Rhaegar made sure the one Kingsguard left near Aerys was a Lannister who idealized Rhaegar and hated what the Mad King had done. Rhaegar quite clearly does not bring Hightower the Dedicated back to his father. 

5 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Maybe Lyanna was gangbanged and did not know who the father was? Rhaegar, Arthur Dayne, Oswell Whent, Gerold Hightower, one of those knights who kidnapped her might have shared in a gangbang? But Lyanna survived and when she was going to Casterly Rock for revenge against Tywin for setting the kidnapping up she was attacked by rapers but rescued by Jaime and Tyrion. She went under the psuedonym "Tysha" and seduced Tyrion the dwarf son of lord Tywin who just wanted to be loved by someone. She did this to get closer to Tywin. When Tywin found out he had to teach her a lesson, she was later sent to a whorehouse and now works for Petyr Baelish as his private whore. Littlefinger and Lyanna has the girlfriend experience this is why Littlefinger is so smug around Ned Stark. Not becouse he took both the Tully girls virginity but becouse he has Ned's sister when he wants and how he wants. Lyanna is basicly his sexslave! She is going to be presented by Littlefinger inorder to cancel Sansa's marriage to Tyrion, and to tell Jon Snow hos is father is.

Careful--HBO might actually use this in writing the show. Though it would to interesting to watch.

5 hours ago, NutBurz said:

Either way, the Kingsguard protecting the ToJ could be explained both by the value of the heir/bargaining chip and by leaving the King intentionally exposed.

YUP! Rhaegar has prophecy plans and political ones. He needs both fulfilled. I don't know if Lyanna gave him the prophecy angle yet, but the war did get Aerys off of the throne and almost made Rhaegar a hero. If he'd won at the Trident, he really might have pulled this off.

 

[Sly Wren]

3 hours ago, Regular John Umber said:

Really well done, as always SlyWren

3 hours ago, Regular John Umber said:

Isn't the point that, in Tywin's narrative above, everyone 'knows' Rhaegar was the kidnapper? That's what kicked it off. So he's already a villain in the eyes of many for starting a war foolishly. And if he says he didn't kidnap her, but rather rescued her, who would he be rescuing her from? Tywin wouldn't allow himself to be fingered as the culprit.

A very fair point. This would be why I don't think Tywin took her himself but used others' easily identifiable grievances: Frey, Haigh, and Blount. Just as he did with the Darklyns and the Red Wedding. So, whomever took Lyanna--that would be whom Rhaegar rescued/retrieved her from.

Just as Baelish "rescued" Sansa from the very Lannisters he incited into a war with her family and got her taken prisoner in the first place.

As for Rhaegar, it would depend on how he ultimately ended up with Lyanna (which I really think he did). But Baelish has managed to keep Sansa in the dark about his machinations so far. Sansa's a lot younger than Lyanna. And she does show some suspicion. But she does see Baelish as a protector when he takes her to his unnamed tower in the middle of nowhere (that's gotta be a tower of joy reference) and tells her how they will protect her.

As for "everyone" knowing that Rhaegar took Lyanna, we've seen a few who even after the war romanticize the whole thing. If Rhaegar shows up with a Lyanna who is fine and saying he "helped" her, a lot of the "villain" aspect evaporates.

It's a huge risk, no doubt. But openly staring a civil war between Rhaegar and Aerys would split the pro-Targaryen faction and arguably make things worse.

This way, Rhaegar keeps the onus on Aerys for the war. 

I think.

4 hours ago, Regular John Umber said:

This might work. Tywin would have to play Rhaegar, and also find a way to get them both coming out smelling like roses. He would trick Rhaegar into believing someone else kidnapped Lyanna, and arrange for him to rescue her from these people.

... but then, why take her to Dorne? Why not stop the fighting if he had rescued her?

 It doesn't add up to me.

I could see Rhaegar's being tricked and then going along with it.

Why not stop the fight? Because he needed the fight. He really needs Aerys deposed/dead. And deposing his father himself would be really risky. It would split the Targaryen loyalists. But if the country takes out Aerys and Rhaegar can rise as the reconciling hero, it could give him an easier path to maintaining power. While Aerys is not just deposed but decomposing. 

On why Dorne--I still think safety. And I still think it likely they went to Starfall--safe, secure home of his best friend to sit out the war and prepare for the opportune moment to enter it.

2 hours ago, Humble Maester said:

Your OP is so very long it's pretty hard to break down, so I'll keep my response short.

Plausible? Yes. Likely? No.

Fair enough.

2 hours ago, nanother said:

Brilliant stuff, as always. There's a lot in there to think about.

Thanks! 

[Sly Wren]

2 hours ago, delspark said:

Why would Tywin and Rhaegar want to go through all this trouble? They could simply poison or assassinate Aerys using someone from Braavos. That way their honour too would not be questioned or be labelled as Kinslayer/Kingslayer. 

And, given the animosity between Tywin and Aerys, or Tywin and Rhaegar, absolutely no one would ever assume/suspect that Tywin or Rhaegar did it? If they thought that, why did Tywin bother with using the Defiance of Duskendale? Why didn't he hire a faceless man to take out Robb instead of the Red Wedding?

And, as for Rhaegar, why bother with the plans at Harrenhal to rally the country? 

No--Tywin actively keeps the onus off of himself by using other people's clear motivations. And Rhaegar wants to be seen as the sensible, strong, humane Targaryen. If not, they'd have shanked Aerys ages ago, individually or collectively.

2 hours ago, Orphalesion said:

Because people are frustrated they figured out the plot twist 10 years ago and need to do something until WoW is released? No other reason really.

HA! I don't deny being frustrated. But Martin takes a lot of time showing how wars get orchestrated with Robb's Rebellion and the War of the 5 Kings. Then, at the end of the third novel, he tells us that Jon Arryn didn't die the way we thought he did. He shows us that plotters actively started the war. So, the idea that Robert's Rebellion was also orchestrated by plotters to gain power makes a lot of sense.

And it explains why he's also told us about how Tywin dealt with Aerys, why Tywin and Rhaegar sat out the war.

And why on earth the identities of the three knights defeated by the Knight of the Laughing Tree actually matter.

2 hours ago, Orphalesion said:

But yeah the disposal of a king does not need to be that messy, even Cersei managed it.

And got a civil war she did NOT want and could not control for her trouble. Rhaegar and Tywin want Aerys gone and the country stable, as shown by using the Defiance and setting up Harrenhal. Cersei was just trying to cover up her mess and just made a bigger one.

2 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Awesome job as always @Sly Wren. You know that I'm a bit prejudiced in this regard, but I definitely think that you're onto something. I don't have a whole lot of time right now. Imagine that? I plan to add more over at TLH later, but wonder if you've thought about looking at Tywin's chapters too. I'm seeing more evidence there. 

Thank you! 

And, did you mean Tyrion's chapters? If so, any hints on what you are seeing? I'll check on TLH, too. No rush.

2 hours ago, The Flayed Knight said:

Superbly put together Sly Wren. As Lady Dyanna said before, it seems that your posts are onto something (as were the others who posted of this before). Tywin wasn't a man to sit by and have his name slighted by others (at least, not with an 'end-game' in the works and his 'actions' against lords who slighted the Lannister name). 

There is certainly a lot to take into consideration, and is certainly plausible.

 Thank you! And I fully agree on Tywin. The idea that he would give up after Duskendale, especially after Aerys took Jaime--no way. 

1 hour ago, SerTarod said:

Very well constructed. Well done on the Porcupine / Blount connection!

Thanks! 

[norwaywolf123]

1 hour ago, Sly Wren said:

It is an option. But I think the better chance is someone she ended up with --Rhaegar or Arthur.

Though I am largely basing that on symbolism surrounding Jon vs. practicality or logistics. 

Why not Oswell Whent? Does the father need to be superman? For all we know Lyanna's child could be fathered by some lowborn.

What about Jaime+Lyanna  

Quote

 

[DarkSister1001]

A great read as always Sly!  I think Tywin's hand in the abduction is certainly likely.  And I love the connections tyou made with the knights, well done!

The only thing I disagree with is Rhaeger's early involvement.  I think it's more likely that he was told that Lyanna was abducted and saved her.  Crowning her at Harrenhal tells us he was obviously smitten with her.  He seems too honorable to help start a war.  But he's a romantic and would rush in to save the damsel in distress and I think Tywin knew that too. 

[Lady Dyanna]

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

And, did you mean Tyrion's chapters? If so, any hints on what you are seeing? I'll check on TLH, too. No rush.

No. I actually meant THEON. No idea how I wrote Tywin. 

When he makes his plans with Dagmer to take Winterfell, I think it's an echo of the plan to take Lyanna. I know it sounds odd, but I really think there's something there. 

[delspark]

2 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

 Why didn't he hire a faceless man to take out Robb instead of the Red Wedding?

By the time Robb returned to Riverrun, the news of him marrying Jeyne would have reached Tywin. The news about Robb seeking forgiveness  by making an alliance for his uncle with Frey would have also got into Tywin's ear. What better way to already use the given chaos and remove Robb than kill him using a FM? 

Hiring someone to murder Robb would directly point the finger at Lannisters and risk Jamie's life.

[NutBurz]

6 hours ago, delspark said:

Why would Tywin and Rhaegar want to go through all this trouble? They could simply poison or assassinate Aerys using someone from Braavos. That way their honour too would not be questioned or be labelled as Kinslayer/Kingslayer. 

Both the Lannisters and the Targaryen are diplomaticly exhausted. Both rely on the status quo and sheer political power to keep themselves influential, but the status quo is changing and Tywin and Aerys had been undermining each other. Aerys was never a great politician and strategist, but Tywin was, and he most likely was the political tutor of Rhaegar.

Like it´s said in the OP, Starks, Tullys, Baratheon and Arryn had been strenghtening their political ties, while Rhaegar was to have Dornish children. Tywin couldn´t possibly like that, and he most likely tried to influence Rhaegar against this arrangement.

I don´t see Rhaegar willing to start the plan, as in capturing Lyanna, since from his point of view things are not that bad - his father is old, and he would have "all his reign" (if the conpiracists didn´t depose him first, which I´m sure was threat made by Tywin) to strenghten ties with the Center and the North.

However, I also don´t see Rhaegar splitting up from Tywin once he heard the plan was put in motion, especially considering that the angle "it was my father who did it, not me, I´m here to save the day" was perfectly open, while Tywin could very well just go on with his plan and adapt it to not include Rhaegar at all.

It´s not like Rhaegar would´ve had much of a choice. He could either play the good guy or watch Tywin paint him as the bad guy like his father. And Tywin makes that clear to him.

 

I´ll repeat this, however unlikely it might be for it to be true - if during the ruse Rhaegar finds out Lyanna was pregnant, he would first suspect the people guarding her - but if they´re Kingsguard, it probably wasn´t them. So Lyanna was already pregnant when they took her? So Lyanna is expecting a Stark/Baratheon kid? Well, if this kid is born safely (and that takes some time, which Rhaegar would sit out), it´s another point for Good Guy Rhaegar - "hey, I saved your sister, and your bethroded, from my father, and kept her hidden from him and took care of her while she was fragile, and here, I even made sure she had your heir without further troubles".

In one move, he could wash his hands from his father´s acts against the Stark, deliver the personified union between Stark and Baratheon and be the "sole" responsible for the new peace. It wouldn´t have been the Baratheons who unified the country, they would be the rebels who just got what they want. The Starks couldn´t hold Brandon´s and Rickard´s death against the crown, because the new crown actually saved their sister.

[Sly Wren]

6 hours ago, norwaywolf123 said:

Why not Oswell Whent? Does the father need to be superman? For all we know Lyanna's child could be fathered by some lowborn.

Can you imagine the internet reaction if Jon's father is "assistant stable hand #2?" And you are right on the superman thing. I have hefty "Dawn" colored glasses when it comes to Jon. I really think he's the next Sword of the Morning. But this is Martin's sandbox, so, who knows?

Quote

What about Jaime+Lyanna  

Well, Jaime was kept pretty close to Aerys. If you are serious, can you think of when he'd get . . . access?

But if you're just teasing, I'm now imagining Cersei's reaction if she thought she lost both Jaime and Rhaegar to Lyanna. HA! I'm guessing she might go into a fugue state in front of a mirror, repeating "I am beautiful! I'm the most beautiful! Everyone says so." For hours every day.

4 hours ago, DarkSister1001 said:

A great read as always Sly!  I think Tywin's hand in the abduction is certainly likely.  And I love the connections tyou made with the knights, well done!

Though, in a convo with @Voice, we also came up with the option that the knights just tried to take her and she ran. Like Arya does when the Kingsguard try to take her.

4 hours ago, DarkSister1001 said:

The only thing I disagree with is Rhaeger's early involvement.  I think it's more likely that he was told that Lyanna was abducted and saved her.

Very possible. Or he could have found her after she'd run from the defeated knights. Like Arya runs and ends up with a sworn brother (Yoren) and then with Beric (who has Dayne connections and some Sword of the Morning imagery, like Arthur) and then the Hound (a non-knight who protects both Sansa and Arya). 

Though, if that's how it went down, I still think Rhaegar held onto her for his own ends--like Beric and Thoros intend to get Arya home AND make money. Same with the Hound. Rhaegar didn't need money, but Lyanna was still potentially valuable to him in his goals to get rid of Aerys and unify the country.

Quote

Crowning her at Harrenhal tells us he was obviously smitten with her.  He seems too honorable to help start a war.  But he's a romantic and would rush in to save the damsel in distress and I think Tywin knew that too. 

Maybe. I'm currently stuck on the Bael Tale and how it presents the blue roses. Couple that with the Starks' reaction when Rhaegar crowns her and I really think something else was going on with that crowning. Blue roses in the Bael Tale mean deceit and sticking it to an enemy. And the reaction to the crowning means something was very wrong there.

As for how romantic Rhaegar was. . . we know people saw him romantically. Cersei seems to think he's the ultimate in Harp Boy Band Emo fabulousness. But Rhaegar gets described as dutiful and hardworking. Focused on prophecy and the kingdom and goals. A dreamer, yes--under the stars at Summerhall. But just how "romantic" he was seems up for at least some debate.

But Tywin could have manipulated Rhaegar either way. Or even just have gotten lucky when Lyanna ran from the knights Tywin "sent" after her.

[Sly Wren]

3 hours ago, delspark said:

By the time Robb returned to Riverrun, the news of him marrying Jeyne would have reached Tywin. The news about Robb seeking forgiveness  by making an alliance for his uncle with Frey would have also got into Tywin's ear. What better way to already use the given chaos and remove Robb than kill him using a FM? 

Hiring someone to murder Robb would directly point the finger at Lannisters and risk Jamie's life.

Exactly. Tywin has a history of using other people's grievances to keep his own hands clean. If he wants to rule with Rhaegar, he and Rhaegar need to avoid directly taking out Aerys. They need someone else to take the blame.

2 hours ago, NutBurz said:

Both the Lannisters and the Targaryen are diplomaticly exhausted. Both rely on the status quo and sheer political power to keep themselves influential, but the status quo is changing and Tywin and Aerys had been undermining each other. Aerys was never a great politician and strategist, but Tywin was, and he most likely was the political tutor of Rhaegar.

Yup!!

2 hours ago, NutBurz said:

I don´t see Rhaegar willing to start the plan, as in capturing Lyanna, since from his point of view things are not that bad - his father is old, and he would have "all his reign" (if the conpiracists didn´t depose him first, which I´m sure was threat made by Tywin) to strenghten ties with the Center and the North.

However, I also don´t see Rhaegar splitting up from Tywin once he heard the plan was put in motion, especially considering that the angle "it was my father who did it, not me, I´m here to save the day" was perfectly open, while Tywin could very well just go on with his plan and adapt it to not include Rhaegar at all.

Agreed. I'm still not sure what to do with the crowning of Lyanna. But the idea that once Lyanna was taken and Brandon got told Rhaegar did it, Rhaegar might well have realized this was a good opportunity. Especially if he didnt' figure it out until after Aerys burned Rickard and Brandon.

3 hours ago, NutBurz said:

I´ll repeat this, however unlikely it might be for it to be true - if during the ruse Rhaegar finds out Lyanna was pregnant, he would first suspect the people guarding her - but if they´re Kingsguard, it probably wasn´t them. So Lyanna was already pregnant when they took her? So Lyanna is expecting a Stark/Baratheon kid? Well, if this kid is born safely (and that takes some time, which Rhaegar would sit out), it´s another point for Good Guy Rhaegar - "hey, I saved your sister, and your bethroded, from my father, and kept her hidden from him and took care of her while she was fragile, and here, I even made sure she had your heir without further troubles".

In one move, he could wash his hands from his father´s acts against the Stark, deliver the personified union between Stark and Baratheon and be the "sole" responsible for the new peace. It wouldn´t have been the Baratheons who unified the country, they would be the rebels who just got what they want. The Starks couldn´t hold Brandon´s and Rickard´s death against the crown, because the new crown actually saved their sister.

Yes, that could work. We see Tywin and Baelish putting things in motion and then adapting as things progress--since there's no way they can control everything. Working multiple contingencies.

If Rhaegar learned anything from Tywin, he would have thought to do this, too. 

Especially since he seems to have fully believed he'd win at the Trident.

[Sly Wren]

4 hours ago, Lady Dyanna said:

No. I actually meant THEON. No idea how I wrote Tywin. 

When he makes his plans with Dagmer to take Winterfell, I think it's an echo of the plan to take Lyanna. I know it sounds odd, but I really think there's something there. 

Ah! Got it. I agree re: the echo.

And I answered you here. 

[DarkSister1001]

31 minutes ago, Sly Wren said:

Very possible. Or he could have found her after she'd run from the defeated knights. Like Arya runs and ends up with a sworn brother (Yoren) and then with Beric (who has Dayne connections and some Sword of the Morning imagery, like Arthur) and then the Hound (a non-knight who protects both Sansa and Arya). 

Though, if that's how it went down, I still think Rhaegar held onto her for his own ends--like Beric and Thoros intend to get Arya home AND make money. Same with the Hound. Rhaegar didn't need money, but Lyanna was still potentially valuable to him in his goals to get rid of Aerys and unify the country.

Ohhhh, I like it.  He may have even changed plans at some point after her brother and father died and that's why he kept her hidden away. 

[Nevets]

20 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

1. Martin takes the time to identify the defeated knights and squires by their sigils. There’s no reason to tell readers that unless those knights’ identities matter.

He also takes time to identify the identities of the men dancing with Ashara Dayne, and the very long list of bannermen of the Starks that were present.  Actually, practically every chapter in the book is loaded with detail, on sigils, food, clothing, etc.  Besdides, the sigils have to belong to somebody.  The Freys make sense, due to their animosity with the crannogmen, as does one of their Bannermen being involved.  Blount being involved may have been random, although I will admit to being at somewhat of a loss as to why Blount was reinstated.  Maybe, because by virtue of his reinstatement, Blount would be grateful and loyal to Tywin instead of others such as Cersei.

21 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

But Catelyn doesn’t take Tyrion herself. She orders him seized in King Robert’s name. With help from Freys and others. Then takes him to a safer place.  Martin is showing us exactly how Lyanna, daughter of a great house, could be “taken.”

Catelyn took Tyrion publicly, in full viewof an entire roomful of people at an inn.  Everyone and his brother knew who had Tyrion and pretty much why.  She openly called for help from her father's bannermen.  Also, the Freys did not participate in the capture of Tyrion.  They stayed in their seats, something Tyrion noted with pleasure.  I honestly see no comparison between this taking and the one you are suggesting, which is done in secret by individuals who are hiding their identities.  it is also likely that, given that she was the daughter of a LP, well outside of her home territory, she would have had some sort of an escort, which unless they were all killed, would know that Rhaegar was not involved.  

Another consideration is that this is a work of fiction, not of history.  If this were a historical event, it might be plausible, if barely.  Given that this is a work of literature, in which GRRM has carefully laid clues leading to Rhaegar and Lyanna being closely connected, I find it quite unlikely and the evidence in its favor to be extremely thin.  Rhaegar doing it for his own reasons makes much more sense, both in-universe and from a storytelling perspective.  That doesn't exclude the possibility of a political motive, although it that is the case, it is probably mixed in with the prophecy and attraction aspects.

Btw, at what point is it said that the porcupine is the Blount sigil.  The wiki doesn't say.

 

[Lady Dyanna]

12 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Btw, at what point is it said that the porcupine is the Blount sigil.  The wiki doesn't say.

Actually it does House Blount

Quote   Coat of arms A red bend sinister between two black porcupines, on a green field (Vert, a bend sinister gules between two porcupines sable)

[Nevets]

17 minutes ago, Lady Dyanna said:

Actually it does House Blount

 

Actually, what I meant to say is, where is that stated in the books.  In other words, what is the wiki's source for the sigil.

[Sly Wren]

1 hour ago, DarkSister1001 said:

Ohhhh, I like it.  He may have even changed plans at some point after her brother and father died and that's why he kept her hidden away. 

Yup! Like the Hound has to change his plans for Arya after her mother and brother are killed.

[The Great and Mighty Poo]

9 hours ago, Sly Wren said:

It is an option. But I think the better chance is someone she ended up with --Rhaegar or Arthur.

Though I am largely basing that on symbolism surrounding Jon vs. practicality or logistics. 

1. Thanks! 

2. You're absolutely right about who took her. When Jon Arryn dies, no one asserts he's poisoned until Lysa sends her letter blaming the Lannisters. That sets up the mess that gets Baelish his war.

So, all those who took Lyanna have to do is take her. Then someone needs to tell Brandon (as someone clearly did) that Rhaegar did it. And BOOM! That gets it done regardless of what those who took her said to do so.

Thank you! 

HA! If Rhaegar did it for arbitrary reasons he deserved Robert's hammer to the chest.

No--not remotely arbitrary: Rhaegar needs his father off of the throne. A great council might push Aerys off, but it would likely still result in some kind of war. No way that would end up pretty. The Targs have plenty of history showing what happens when they fight each other for power. But if others take Aerys out for him, Rhaegar is in a much better position.

And it would explain why on earth he sat out the war.

To be honest I was tired and grumpy when I read the short version. To me it sounded as if you were implying that Rhaegar just went along with Tywin if that's not arbitrary I don't know what is. But your reply has won me over I'll read it and comment my corrected opinion unless my opinion would be worth less than two cents. 

[Sly Wren]

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

He also takes time to identify the identities of the men dancing with Ashara Dayne, and the very long list of bannermen of the Starks that were present.  

Yup! As @MaesterSam has argued before, the men Ashara Dayne dances with are political players. The details in the story tell us a lot about the politics of what's happening at the Harrenhal. Given that Rhaegar seems to have organized it to work on deposing his father, who is there and who does what is important.

Which is why those knights count, too. 

They were all defeated and chastised by the Knight. They are all tied to Tywin. Something's up.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

 Besdides, the sigils have to belong to somebody.  The Freys make sense, due to their animosity with the crannogmen, as does one of their Bannermen being involved.  Blount being involved may have been random, although I will admit to being at somewhat of a loss as to why Blount was reinstated.  Maybe, because by virtue of his reinstatement, Blount would be grateful and loyal to Tywin instead of others such as Cersei.

I agree on the Freys and Haighs, as you know.

But on Boros--he's a craven. He's broken down and aging. In his heyday, he seems to have been an excellent jouster. But he's repeatedly mocked for cowardice. And he gave up the heir to the throne.  Cersei has no trouble finding fighting men who are willing to be her lickspittles. The idea that Tywin of all people couldn't find someone better beggars the imagination.

There had to be someone better for the Kingsguard To protect Tywin's legacy.

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Catelyn took Tyrion publicly, in full viewof an entire roomful of people at an inn.  Everyone and his brother knew who had Tyrion and pretty much why.  She openly called for help from her father's bannermen.  Also, the Freys did not participate in the capture of Tyrion.  They stayed in their seats, something Tyrion noted with pleasure.  I honestly see no comparison between this taking and the one you are suggesting, which is done in secret by individuals who are hiding their identities.  it is also likely that, given that she was the daughter of a LP, well outside of her home territory, she would have had some sort of an escort, which unless they were all killed, would know that Rhaegar was not involved.  

Agreed. My main point was that if Lyanna was taken from her guard, it would likely be done under the authority of the king. That could be how she was taken from her guard, just as Tyrion was taken from his.

As for "in secret and hiding identities"--that wasn't my point and I apologize for being unclear. Tywin would want to not be known, but the defeated knights would probably want the Starks to know this was payback. Just as the Freys want the north to know they are paying back the Starks. So, no reason the defeated knights would have to disguise themselves.

As for the guards, another option is obviously that they were overpowered.

And, even if Rhaegar's name was never used, whoever took or tried to take Lyanna could just lie and tell Brandon that Rhaegar did it. 

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

Another consideration is that this is a work of fiction, not of history.  If this were a historical event, it might be plausible, if barely.  Given that this is a work of literature, in which GRRM has carefully laid clues leading to Rhaegar and Lyanna being closely connected, I find it quite unlikely and the evidence in its favor to be extremely thin.

Well, any reason why Rhaegar and Lyanna can't still have a child in this scenario?

Plus, there are literary clues. The taking of a hostage in the Riverlands not many leagues from Harrenhal: that's Cat taking Tyrion.

A Stark maid taken captive by Lannister men for political purposes? That's Sansa after Ned's taken. Who is then taken to Cersei by Boros Blount. And is currently in the hands of a plotter who intends to use her for his own political and power aims.

A Stark maid who was almost taken captive by Lannister men for political purposes but then got away? That's Arya--who luckily falls in with a series of sworn brothers: Yoren, Beric (who is trying to "save" the countryside somewhat) and the Hound. Beric and the Hound both decide that they will protect Arya, but they'll also use her for their own gain.

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Rhaegar doing it for his own reasons makes much more sense, both in-universe and from a storytelling perspective.  That doesn't exclude the possibility of a political motive, although it that is the case, it is probably mixed in with the prophecy and attraction aspects.

I agree--Rhaegar kept Lyanna for his own reasons. And one of his big goals was getting the kingdom away from his father. We learn that about Harrenhal and Jaime points that out when Rhaegar comes back from the south.

As for prophecy, so far the things we've seen Rhaegar do re: prophecy are taking up sword fighting and naming his son Aegon. No kidnapping or running off with girls he barely knows. He dreams at Summerhall. But with Harrenhal, we have evidence that he was willing to plot in furtherance of getting his father off of the throne.

As for the attraction--the giving of that rose crown is really off. The Bael Tale makes it very clear that blue roses are NOT a compliment and the Starks's reaction makes it clear that something is really wrong.

All that said--the idea that Rhaegar and Lyanna could have fallen for each other after she's taken--that would fit.

33 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Actually, what I meant to say is, where is that stated in the books.  In other words, what is the wiki's source for the sigil.

I couldn't find it in the books, only the wiki. The wiki cites the Citadel here.

[Sly Wren]

9 minutes ago, The Great and Mighty Poo said:

To be honest I was tired and grumpy when I read the short version. To me it sounded as if you were implying that Rhaegar just went along with Tywin if that's not arbitrary I don't know what is. But your reply has won me over I'll read it and comment my corrected opinion unless my opinion would be worth less than two cents. 

I've amended the OP a bit to hopefully make it easier to avoid the impression I gave you. My apologies for making you grumpy.