Jon, Sansa and the Battle Prep

[Frejac]

20 minutes ago, willowbark said:

She spoke of saving Rickon in episode 4 or 5, and said that Rickon wouldn't be able to be saved in episode 9, after Ramsey showed them the direwolf head.  If Varys can travel to Dorne and back to Mereen in one episode, then i think Sansa has time to really think about the situation and come to different conclusions over a course of multiple episodes.

It's possible that she rethought her position.

But it's also possible that she had given up on Rickon from the start and just used the prospect of saving him to convince Jon to fight.

With the way the show has written Sansa this year, I honestly don't know which one is true.

[willowbark]

6 minutes ago, Frejac said:

It's possible that she rethought her position.

But it's also possible that she had given up on Rickon from the start and just used the prospect of saving him to convince Jon to fight.

With the way the show has written Sansa this year, I honestly don't know which one is true.

I think that the writers wanted it ambiguous to get people intrigued for next season, but I think it wasn't needed.  I have enough tension just wondering if I'm going to have to sit through any more scenes in Dorne.

 

[John Suburbs]

On ‎7‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 3:01 PM, Einheri said:

 

Notice how, even after much of Jon's army was slaughtered by Ramsey's horse, Rams still had the Umbers and his own foot to send in for the final encirclement. If the Vale had arrived any earlier, they would have still met an organized force. Maybe they could have beaten them. Maybe not.

Sansa is out for herself at this point because "no one can protect me. no one can protect anybody." So the only way she could ensure victory for herself was to play it exactly as she did. She was willing to sacrifice Jon to gain her victory, which I think is the meaning behind that half smile when she sees him on the battlefield: she didn't want him to die, but she expected it. So she was surprised when he didn't.

[John Suburbs]

On ‎7‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 3:09 PM, Quyen Thuy Tran said:

The Vale army's number has been described somewhere in the show. If I remember correctly, LF ensured her that at the beginning of ep 5 or so. And Sansa rejected them. And why was that such a huge number of Knight moving to the North but Ramsay didn't have a clue at all? Sorry I never buy the idea that Sansa is a strategist. She called for help, they agreed to come. She knew. But why Ramsay didn't know? At the same time Ramsay had such brilliant strategy and ignore his back... 

If Sansa wanted to ensure that Ramsay would never know about Vale army by not telling Jon, then she failed. The Vale Army must go through Moat Cailin or if they were staying at Moat Cailin, why Ramsay didn't do anything about that. The plot is full of holes. 

And yes, you're right that Sansa threw her family behind. 

Agreed. Impossible that Rams did not know. But from Sansa's perspective, she has nothing really to gain by telling Jon about the Vale and everything to lose by keeping him in the dark. All that would have happened is that Jon, LF and Royce would meet up and a new battle plan would have emerged -- one that probably would not have kept the Vale hidden from Rams any longer, because noble knights like Royce don't intentionally sneak up behind enemies like cowards.

So in that case, Rams would have planned for the battle knowing full-well who and what he faced, which would have made victory for Sansa (not Jon and Sansa, just Sansa) much less certain.

So like I said, I can't tell if Sansa is actually thinking this way, or if she had no idea that the Vale was even in the area and the whole battle just turned out lucky for Jon. But I think Sansa bears watching in future episodes because if she is calculating at this level, she just might be one to survive the entire series -- and wouldn't that be something for a character who started out as one of the most naïve in the story.

 

[John Suburbs]

On ‎7‎/‎6‎/‎2016 at 4:03 PM, House_Tony_Stark said:

And? The point is to win a battle efficiently not take credit for it. Had she had told Jon he could have worked with them to devise said plan and cause the least amount of loss of life on both sides.

If Jon's forces would have drew Ramsy's forces out into the battlefield which he would have done regardless....then like I said a flank on both sides would have most likely caused the Bolton forces to surrender. Not only that even if the other side caught win that a Kingdom with twice as many soldiers was about to join Jon's forces people would have been turning their back on Ramsey.

The only reason more people didn't join him was because they felt like his small army had no chance against the Bolton army. **Thanks again Sansa**

If Jon, LF and Royce teamed up before the battle, there would be no way the Vale army could be anywhere close to the field at the beginning of the battle and still remain hidden from Ramsey. It's already a stretch that Rams didn't know they were in the general area, but hey, it's television. So, no, luring Rams into battle and have the Vale launch a surprise flanking move is a non-starter. Ramsey is not that stupid.

So from Sansa's perspective, telling Jon about the Vale is like telling Ramsey -- she would be giving up the only real advantage that Sansa has over him and the only real chance she has of becoming his widow. By keeping Jon in the dark, Sansa ensures that Ramsey's battle plan will focus on Jon and only Jon -- and all the while she has the trump card that wins her the hand.

[Quyen Thuy Tran]

3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Agreed. Impossible that Rams did not know. But from Sansa's perspective, she has nothing really to gain by telling Jon about the Vale and everything to lose by keeping him in the dark. All that would have happened is that Jon, LF and Royce would meet up and a new battle plan would have emerged -- one that probably would not have kept the Vale hidden from Rams any longer, because noble knights like Royce don't intentionally sneak up behind enemies like cowards.

So in that case, Rams would have planned for the battle knowing full-well who and what he faced, which would have made victory for Sansa (not Jon and Sansa, just Sansa) much less certain.

So like I said, I can't tell if Sansa is actually thinking this way, or if she had no idea that the Vale was even in the area and the whole battle just turned out lucky for Jon. But I think Sansa bears watching in future episodes because if she is calculating at this level, she just might be one to survive the entire series -- and wouldn't that be something for a character who started out as one of the most naïve in the story.

 

Wrong, I think it's just a simple notice to Jon and his supporters that Vale is coming is enough for other Nothern houses to send more help. And by that way they could have won without much support from Vale and Sansa would have less to pay to LF. Whatever reason she thought of when she didn't tell Jon, she was wrong and naive and stupid all the same. She is just being played by LF. The story is simple, she is still manipulated by LF. She doesn't trust him but she can't let her mind stay away from his manipulation. LF understands Cat, and Sansa is exactly like Cat. LF knows Sansa doesn't like Jon much, she came to him because he's the only option. Sansa is the same as Cat, will never trust Jon. And by planting doubt in Sansa's mind against Jon, he is pulling Sansa closer to him. The more she doesn't trust anyone, the more she has to turn to LF because there's no one else with some political power (except Jon whom Sansa isn't trusting fully) she could turn to when she's hopeless. By planting some war between Sansa and Jon, LF will gain his best benefits.

[Einheri]

4 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Notice how, even after much of Jon's army was slaughtered by Ramsey's horse, Rams still had the Umbers and his own foot to send in for the final encirclement. If the Vale had arrived any earlier, they would have still met an organized force. Maybe they could have beaten them. Maybe not.

Sansa is out for herself at this point because "no one can protect me. no one can protect anybody." So the only way she could ensure victory for herself was to play it exactly as she did. She was willing to sacrifice Jon to gain her victory, which I think is the meaning behind that half smile when she sees him on the battlefield: she didn't want him to die, but she expected it. So she was surprised when he didn't.

Like I pointed out in that reply you just quoted, there is no guarantee that the battle would unfold the way it did, so it would be a huge gamble on Sansa's part to just assume they have a better chance at success if the Vale forces arrive later rather than earlier, and again, her actions in the command tent (i.e. clearly trying to stall Jon's march on Winterfell) indicates that this was not her intention, either because she cared about Jon and/or she realized that a somewhat intact Stark army + Vale army stand a better at taking out Ramsay together. I mean, look at history. Time after time great victories have been achieved by the underdog because they were able to deal with the opposing armies one at time, and prevent them from ever linking up with link each other.

[Lady Ren]

The Vale forces arrived fresh and "unknown". That was key to their victory. 

Numbers do matter, but I hightly.doubt LF brought them all. Vale would have been left vulnerable. 

Jon would most definitly have disclosed the Vale.to his men. So good job Sansa.

That being said, I dont think.Sansa was 100% confident of their arrival. Even so, she chose not to tell Jon in 4x09 of even the possibility b/c she doubted his ability to stay cool. She doesnt judge him for it though. He saw the merit of that as well.

My theory? She arrives with the Vale.in the books at the nick of time and "saves" Jon. Lying would be a non-issue. Which is why the writers treated it like a non-issue here. Its not the kind of hurdle most are dreading.  I think. 

 

[House_Tony_Stark]

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

If Jon, LF and Royce teamed up before the battle, there would be no way the Vale army could be anywhere close to the field at the beginning of the battle and still remain hidden from Ramsey. It's already a stretch that Rams didn't know they were in the general area, but hey, it's television. So, no, luring Rams into battle and have the Vale launch a surprise flanking move is a non-starter. Ramsey is not that stupid.

So from Sansa's perspective, telling Jon about the Vale is like telling Ramsey -- she would be giving up the only real advantage that Sansa has over him and the only real chance she has of becoming his widow. By keeping Jon in the dark, Sansa ensures that Ramsey's battle plan will focus on Jon and only Jon -- and all the while she has the trump card that wins her the hand.

No my friend that's not how war or strategy planning works. Surprise flanks have been a combat tactic in use for hundreds of years, your Calvary stays out of sight and you lure the enemy into engaging you by making it seem as if you are losing.

Even in the situation that they wanted to let him know the Vale was joining would have been beneficial. Regardless of what happened it was Northern men who were killing Northern men. There were houses that took Ramsey's side just because he had a larger army and they did not want to be on the losing side. Had those houses known the Vale was joining the battle they would have taken Jon's side instead thus reducing the amount of dead on both sides.

And let me tell you this....Even if the Vale forces charged Ramsey's forces head on they still would have been victorious. Mounted soldiers will always demolish foot soldiers not to mention the fact that the Vale army is MUCH larger. And Winterfell is no heavily fortified keep..once you get into the wooden doors its pretty much over.

[Einheri]

43 minutes ago, Lady Ren said:

Numbers do matter, but I hightly.doubt LF brought them all. Vale would have been left vulnerable. 

You probably don't need to keep a lot of troops in defense of the Vale because you can only get there by ship (and the ports in the region are likely heavily defended) or try your luck against the Bloody Gate.

Jon would most definitly have disclosed the Vale.to his men. So good job Sansa.

And why is this so bad? If before the battle began, Jon had told his men that if they just stood their ground for long enough, they would receive help from the Vale, it would have been a massive boost to morale, and an insurance against potential desertions as well. 

Even so, she chose not to tell Jon in 4x09 of even the possibility b/c she doubted his ability to stay cool. She doesnt judge him for it though. He saw the merit of that as well.

Again, this makes no sense to me. If Sansa's plan as some have suggested here, was to use Jon & co to lure Ramsay out, and then sucker punch him with the Valemen, I can't see why he wouldn't have agreed to go through with this because it's a good plan, and if she thinks he is not suited for command because he can't keep his cool or w/e, she should have just asked him to give it up to someone else.

Lying would be a non-issue. Which is why the writers treated it like a non-issue here. Its not the kind of hurdle most are dreading.  I think. 

No, the show writers obviously couldn't come with any sort of reasonable excuse why Sansa would keep this information from Jon, so they basically gave up.

[House_Tony_Stark]

46 minutes ago, Lady Ren said:

The Vale forces arrived fresh and "unknown". That was key to their victory. 

Numbers do matter, but I hightly.doubt LF brought them all. Vale would have been left vulnerable. 

Jon would most definitly have disclosed the Vale.to his men. So good job Sansa.

That being said, I dont think.Sansa was 100% confident of their arrival. Even so, she chose not to tell Jon in 4x09 of even the possibility b/c she doubted his ability to stay cool. She doesnt judge him for it though. He saw the merit of that as well.

My theory? She arrives with the Vale.in the books at the nick of time and "saves" Jon. Lying would be a non-issue. Which is why the writers treated it like a non-issue here. Its not the kind of hurdle most are dreading.  I think. 

 

It just sounds like you want to (girl power) her out of a stupid decision...The Vale has over 40,000 of the best trained knights in the seven realms. Jon had a measly force of 2300 and Ramsey had a small force of 5000. Reason being that the North has recently had an army of 15,000 during the war of the kings reduced to 6,0000 which were all the traitor Bolton & Karstark men who fought in this battle.

Even if the Vale sent a tiny fraction of their men which they did it would be enough to demolish the north men on a plains battle (which they did). She choose not to tell Jon because she is a selfish girl who never liked him. If you read the books you would know how evil she is to Jon sometimes. She found herself having to deal with him because he was her only option besides Little Finger. And once she saw she could not control him guess who she turned to?

Thus our magical army out of no where. Believe me, had Jon been able to win without LF she would have never asked for his help either.

[Frejac]

12 minutes ago, Einheri said:

No, the show writers obviously couldn't come with any sort of reasonable excuse why Sansa would keep this information from Jon, so they basically gave up.

I'm starting to believe this.

Sansa lies because drama. The End.

[Lady Ren]

Whats wrong with being selfish?

They didnt win b/c girl power woohoo

They won because she was a little cold. And because Jon is someone who inspires people. Wildings fought for a "southerner" just because he asked. What does that have to do with her gender, jons, or mine for that matter?

Im not goving Sansa the "credit". This was hardwon. Both Sansa and Jon played important roles. Her desperation and his. The contrast was interesting.  

Jon not being able to keep his cool (ie. He is all.heart, that man, even when hes going crazy beating someone its crazyness caused.by the pain of loosing a loved one) is what makes him admirable to others. Davos, Tormund, and more to come.

The battle.showcased both jon and sansas personalities. Nobody is perfect. Its not meant to be an insult.against Jon that his sister did something he couldnt (be selfish). He thanked her for bloody sake.  

He seemed like a man who.has more on his mind than imagined transgessions against his pure/always winning/supremely manly self. 

Edit- Sansa turned to Littlefinger when she realized the North remembered shit. That was her impetus. Not Jon. Ultimately, she manouvered around Jon, not because of him. 

[OldGimletEye]

On 7/5/2016 at 11:55 AM, John Suburbs said:

I came across this piece by Laura Hudson on Wired recently. It's part of a full episode wrap-up, so you'll have to scroll about halfway down, but here is the salient quote:

 

"There’s been some criticism of Sansa for not sharing strategic information with her brother, which misses one very important point: Jon might be a great paladin, but he’s a terrible commander, a man who always telegraphs his moves, because his move will always be to do the Right Thing. Not sharing the linchpin secret of their only chance at victory with the Leeroy Jenkins of Westeros wasn’t just a defensible choice for Sansa, it was a borderline brilliant one; the best way to take down Ramsay Bolton was to make him think that Jon was falling into his trap, and since Jon has consistently proven that he’s too Lawful Good to effectively scheme against anyone, tricking Jon was the only way to get it done. Sansa apologizes anyway, because apparently she has to do everything around here, get no credit for it, and still say she’s sorry for hurting Jon’s fee-fees."

 

What I find interesting is the idea that Sansa could be thinking on this level. That would raise my estimation of her as a player in the game, not just somebody who thinks she can play.

 

Well it’s true that you never know what personality Sandra will have from episode to episode, or even from scene to scene. But, I doubt, as the author of the Wired article is suggesting, that in episode 9 we were seeing Sandra Moltke, master of the operational art, superb planner, and master at converging separate forces, on to the battle field, at the critical point in time.

Before Sandra brought the Vale forces to the battle, there was little evidence that she knew precisely where they were at or that she knew that the Vale forces would make it to the battle on time. Instead it seems what happened was that, after getting salty about Jon not explicitly seeking out her advice, Sandra just got on her horse and went out looking for the Vale forces and luckily found them and brought them to the battle on time.

Sandra herself admits to Jon that she knows nothing of battles, but yet we are supposed to believe that Sandra had secretly devised a plan in her head where she had estimated that it was probable that the Vale forces would make it on time. Evidently, she had estimated how long Jon’s forces could withstand Ramsay’s forces, had a good handle on where the Vale forces where at, and  knew the time when Jon’s and Ramsay’s force’s would start fighting, and from all that had deduced that Ramay’s forces would be fully engaged with Jon’s, leaving Ramsay with no reserve to counter the Vale forces, and the Vale forces would timely arrive to the battle to attack Ramsay’s forces in the rear by surprise.

If Sandra, is the operational mastermind, the author is seemingly suggesting here, then maybe her advice could have been a little more specific to Jon. Something like, “Ramasy will try to draw you out of your defensive position,” rather than giving Jon rather vague advice like, “dont’ fall into his traps, that’s all I can tell you.”

The lack of prior coordination here, by Sandra’s secrecy, was extremely risky because without getting the timing right, it was more likely that Ramsay’s forces could have defeated each force, Jon’s and the Vale forces, in detail before they could unite.

And better prior coordination could have potentially saved wildling lives. Had Jon even delayed the onset of the battle for 10 minutes or 20 minutes, knowing that Vale forces were on their way, many Wildlings probably wouldn’t have died. But, Jon had no particularly good reason to delay the battle, since he had no way of knowing about the Vale forces.

Finally, I think it’s extremely crappy, that in order to make Sansa’s actions look completely defensible here, Jon has to be painted as an utterly incompetent commander. Not just a commander who makes mistakes, from time to time, like he actually did during the battle, but utterly and completely incapable of command. An utter fool basically. And not just an utter fool in politics or playing the Game of Thrones or in diplomacy, but an utter fool in commanding men in battle, something that, given his arc, he should at least be competent at. So incompetent, in fact, that his mere knowing about the Vale forces would, according to Sansa defenders here, have completely blown the advantage of the Vale forces arriving. If Jon is truly this incompetent as a field commander one has to wonder how he ever became LC and how he got elected KITN. The members of the NW and the people of the North must be completely irrational. And you have to wonder how this utterly incompetent individual has any chance of resisting the Others. And why is he even a main hero in the series whose purpose is seemingly to fight the Others?

[The Fattest Leech]

@OldGimletEye Holy world you deserve these for this post. I never give these out.  

[OldGimletEye]

3 minutes ago, The Fattest Leech said:

@OldGimletEye Holy world you deserve these for this post. I never give these out.  

Thank You! I appreciate that.

[TheKitttenGuard]

Well, I am more sympathetic towards Sansa withholding the information in the end for I do not think Jon was not mentally prepared for Ramsey in his current state and the information of the Vale would not of changed that.

I do not understand why the burden was on Sansa to provide a more specific strategy for Jon.  Jon was the one who is trained for battle and not Sansa. Jon was willing to take time to explain to Tormund what a pincher is but he cannot take time to think on what Sansa said and work to communicate what to be done. Instead Jon look to show Sansa how she is wrong and showed that he misread Ramsey at the Parley poorly that I understand why she was abrasive and think it be better to overestimate Ramsey ability to sniff out a trap then not and risk the best chance to take out Ramsey.  It is not some deep plan for Sansa herself thinks planning to trap Ramsey will not work.

I understand the above criticism of Jon will mean I am calling him incompetent which I am not.  I do think Ramsey was the worst match-up for Jon state of mind at the time.

[Quyen Thuy Tran]

1 hour ago, TheKitttenGuard said:

Well, I am more sympathetic towards Sansa withholding the information in the end for I do not think Jon was not mentally prepared for Ramsey in his current state and the information of the Vale would not of changed that.

I do not understand why the burden was on Sansa to provide a more specific strategy for Jon.  Jon was the one who is trained for battle and not Sansa. Jon was willing to take time to explain to Tormund what a pincher is but he cannot take time to think on what Sansa said and work to communicate what to be done. Instead Jon look to show Sansa how she is wrong and showed that he misread Ramsey at the Parley poorly that I understand why she was abrasive and think it be better to overestimate Ramsey ability to sniff out a trap then not and risk the best chance to take out Ramsey.  It is not some deep plan for Sansa herself thinks planning to trap Ramsey will not work.

I understand the above criticism of Jon will mean I am calling him incompetent which I am not.  I do think Ramsey was the worst match-up for Jon state of mind at the time.

Wrong. Jon did ask Sansa when she complained and all she told him was: "I don't know, I don't know. Just don't do whatever Ramsay wanted you to do!!" <<<< seriously tell me what the heck is this kind of advice? As a woman I'd say this advice is nearly useless. The same as my mom telling me "please be careful with your bike". 

 The reply is this: they're all on the same boat. It's Sansa who came up with the idea of "attacking WF, save our brother and revenge". Jon followed all of Sansa's ideas actually. From gathering an army, going around to beg for help from other houses etc, it was all Sansa's idea. In turn  Sansa pays back by not being truthful. That's not how a team work. And definitely that's not how family members treat each other

Withholding information means they're dead. And in fact most of them were dead. The thing is, Vale army isn't for Sansa to control. She must have known that they're not obligated to follow her everywhere anytime. They do not bear her family's name. Winning by an army with her family's name has much more effect than using a Vale army. The show runners make Jon utterly stupid in this episode because they want to shock the audience (will he live will he live etc effect) and to give Sansa some more important role to do than in the book. 

In the book, Sansa is still staying in Vale, it's not her who desperately wants to kill Ramsay because he treats her friend like shit. I can imagine the true storyline in the book it's like this: Sansa hears of the battle while she's staying in Vale, she wants to help her brother to win back WF (and maybe Stannis is still alive in that battle) the. Sne begs Vale army to come in time when her brother's side was losing etc... It's much more logic and it suits the storyline.

The reason the episode became inconsistent and horrible was because the show runners butchered Sansa's storyline. 

 

[TheKitttenGuard]

15 minutes ago, Quyen Thuy Tran said:

Wrong. Jon did ask Sansa when she complained and all she told him was: "I don't know, I don't know. Just don't do whatever Ramsay wanted you to do!!" <<<< seriously tell me what the heck is this kind of advice? As a woman I'd say this advice is nearly useless. The same as my mom telling me "please be careful with your bike". 

 The reply is this: they're all on the same boat. It's Sansa who came up with the idea of "attacking WF, save our brother and revenge". Jon followed all of Sansa's ideas actually. From gathering an army, going around to beg for help from other houses etc, it was all Sansa's idea. In turn  Sansa pays back by not being truthful. That's not how a team work. And definitely that's not how family members treat each other

Withholding information means they're dead. And in fact most of them were dead. The thing is, Vale army isn't for Sansa to control. She must have known that they're not obligated to follow her everywhere anytime. They do not bear her family's name. Winning by an army with her family's name has much more effect than using a Vale army. The show runners make Jon utterly stupid in this episode because they want to shock the audience (will he live will he live etc effect) and to give Sansa some more important role to do than in the book. 

In the book, Sansa is still staying in Vale, it's not her who desperately wants to kill Ramsay because he treats her friend like shit. I can imagine the true storyline in the book it's like this: Sansa hears of the battle while she's staying in Vale, she wants to help her brother to win back WF (and maybe Stannis is still alive in that battle) the. Sne begs Vale army to come in time when her brother's side was losing etc... It's much more logic and it suits the storyline.

The reason the episode became inconsistent and horrible was because the show runners butchered Sansa's storyline. 

 

Jon could of recognize his plan to trap Ramsey was not going to work after Sansa said Ramsey will not fall for a planned trap.  That would of been a sign he is actually listening to what she said. Also, you left out the part where Jon replied "Don't you think I know that." yet it is somehow surprising that Ramsey used Rickon to goad Jon.

So Jon would of let Ramsey have Rickon if Sansa did not push him to act.  He charges the field at first sight but would of totally ignore that he is Ramsey captor.  Also Jon said to Sansa they are going to be together and Ramsey letter showed he intended to get Sansa back.

Right Sansa really do not have the Vale yet nearly everyone scenarios involving the Vale sure act as it is Sansa's army.  There is also the part of LF having a much larger role in the whole affairs and do not understand why people will be so eager for him to have one. LF really would of made sure Jon was dead before attacking.

[JonSnow4President]

3 hours ago, House_Tony_Stark said:

 

And let me tell you this....Even if the Vale forces charged Ramsey's forces head on they still would have been victorious. Mounted soldiers will always demolish foot soldiers not to mention the fact that the Vale army is MUCH larger. And Winterfell is no heavily fortified keep..once you get into the wooden doors its pretty much over.

No, no they do not. Calvary is good for shock charges, but once engaged, are actually fairly vulnerable to spearmen.  A disciplined unit of shielded spearman can withstand and then gain the advantage on cavalry, especially if they the benefit of terrain (because of Stannis' preparations at Storm's End, and Renly's stupidity in the battleplan and all cavalry force, Stannis actually has a good chance of winning despite the numbers for this reason).  

Now, mounted knights would cut through armed peasants on foot all day long because of massive advantages in armor and training, although it's pretty clear that the Bolton Legionaries are well disciplined.  

As to the Vale strength, they're a prosperous kingdom that has been left out of the war.  Even if Littlefinger only brings a 3rd of the army to bear, he still should be bringing 10,000 troops, enough to double the numbers on Ramsey's army.  Jon + Vale would be favored to win in a straight up fight (unless Ramsey sits in Winterfell, at which point Jon + 1/3 of Vale would be a little light for the general rule of thumb of needing a 3x numbers advantage when attacking), without considering what that might do to Karstark or Umber's loyalty (or Glover's or Manderly's)