Preston Jacobs and the Purple Wedding

[John Suburbs]

On ‎2‎/‎11‎/‎2017 at 10:59 PM, Luddagain said:

Now I have not got the books nearby but i recollect that Littlefinger did NOT accuse Lady tyrell

 

Rather he asked Sansa 'Did someone adjust your hairnet" etc.  sansa replies lady oleanna and so she ASSUMED she was in on the plot.

 

Rather I think that Littlefinger assumed that someone would help Sansa- a gesture of kindness - women do that. It was  a safe bet and if Sansa had said no one he would have thought of another story.

Awfully good guess, even for Littlefinger. I'll point out that there was very little wind that day from Tyrion's POV. And since the whole point of a hairnet is to keep the hair in place even in the wind, it would have taken an awfully big gust to mess it up.

And it would have been awkward if LF took a guess and said, "someone told you your hairnet was crooked and straightened it out for you," and Sansa would have said "No" and then LF would have said, "OK, um, then they commented on the loveliness of your hair? No? Asked you to turn around so they could admire your lovely hairnet? No? Tapped you on the opposite shoulder so you turned the wrong way? Am I getting warm?"

[John Suburbs]

On ‎2‎/‎12‎/‎2017 at 2:42 PM, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Incorrect. Only one drink at this point. 

Which one are we talking about, before the cutting or after? Before was "drank deep, and set it on the table". After was "drank long and deep, his throat working as the wine ran purple down his chin."

So the first is indeterminate, but the second is clearly multiple chugs of what by now should be wine so poisoned it has turned purple.

[John Suburbs]

19 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said:

Interestingly enough, it was Shae who helped Sansa with the hairnet.

Hopefully Preston isn't reading this. We may have a Dontos-Shae-LF-Tywin-Lady O theory coming up next...

Yes, and she also pointedly states that she wants to be in the room because she has never seen pigeons fly out of a pie.

Very interesting character is our Lady of Shae.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

55 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

You are making the mistake in thinking that Lady Olenna thinks the way a 20th century grandmother would: that all she wants is for her children and grandchildren to be safe and happy. As a sharp player in the Game of Thrones, she would actually be thinking the way a titular head of a noble house in a feudal society thinks... The real goal here is not to find Margy a good husband, but to put a Tyrell on the Iron Thron[e]

I can mostly agree with that analysis, but it's not conclusive. Do bear in mind that Lady Olenna is a fictional character and if GRRM wants to make her place her grandchildren's well-being above the ambitions of her house (a house I might add that she married into), then he can. And we do have her own words, in front of Sansa, pouring scorn on her son's ambitions.

And bear in mind: if the Tyrells did kill Joffrey, then it's not to save Margaery from Joffrey as much as it is to save Loras from execution, and the family from the shame of having a kingslayer in the ranks... and even, though I'm contradicting myself, the royal ambitions: if Loras really did murder Joffrey in a rage, as Sansa thinks he might, then would the Lannisters permit Tommen to be married to Margaery? I know the danger would've passed with Loras dead or at the Wall (assuming nobody in House Tyrell tries to shelter him or take his side), but the shame etc might be enough to give Tywin a reason to say no to Margaery the Twice-Widowed, the Black Maid of Highgarden, who brings treason and murder wherever she goes, etc, etc...

On 11/2/2017 at 1:55 PM, SFDanny said:

Poison in the pocket is not very accessible to Lady Olenna is it? It wouldn't do for her to have to pick Sansa's pocket to get access to the poison. Nor does it make much sense to tell Sansa that she must bring a bunch of purple crystals to the wedding in her pocket.

Speaking for myself, whenever I talk about poison in the pocket, I mean that Olenna (or whoever) would have it in her own pockets. Isn't that easier than fishing it out of someone's hairnet, assuming that said person wears the hairnet at all?

2 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Martin: In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/george-r-r-martin-on-who-killed-joffrey-20140414

 

Yep, that's the one.

1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Won't it look super lame, if he does? We get introduced to the strangler, dissolved in a cup of wine, in the ACOK's prologue. We got a Joffrey murder mystery in mid ASOS, and a solution in the late chapters of the same book. We get who, whom, what motive, by what means, and it all fits well enough. Case closed, filed as "solved".

But, in Book 6, or Book 7, or even later, we'll get a, allegedly shocking, revelation that it wasn't so. Not at all. When the Wall has fallen, the Others are marching south, and on the other end of the continent dragons soar again over Westerosi sky, we'll be expected to be invested in new solution of this old puzzle?

Well, who knows when the reveal will come, if it's coming at all. But this has happened before: the Jon Arryn case was done and dusted before ASOS, and then wham! we get new information that, if you want to be persnickety about it, doesn't change anything. After all, we already know that Littlefinger engineered conflict between the Starks and Lannisters, because we've seen him pull that shit with the knife, and we've got Tyrion's POV to tell us that he was lying.

1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

..what's the lesson we'll get from the new reveal? That Littlefinger wanted to do Tyrion in (again), or that Littlefinger lies on occasion (no comment)? A shocking swerve, they call it. A plot twist that twists in the sake of twisting, yet doesn't actually bring anything new.

Again, who knows? I can think of a few ways it could drive things forward. For instance, if Sansa discovers that Littlefinger was lying to her, and she wasn't involved in a regicide, that could be one way she breaks free from his influence. Perhaps Cersei finds out, and has to reassess her cruelty toward Tyrion. (Perhaps this occurs after it's too late, and Tyrion's Aegon gambit has left her other two children dead as doornails.) Perhaps Tyrion finds out and remembers that it's Littlefinger he really owes a "debt" too, not Cersei. Perhaps Varys knows and uses it to bloodlessly push the Tyrells out of power.

Perhaps it's something awesome that we can't even fathom yet. Or, perhaps it is just a little pointless twisteroo, which for the record I would still enjoy.

Or perhaps it's already done and dusted.

1 hour ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Compared to the Tyrion theory? M'lord is jesting, of course?

The only semi-interesting missing puzzle is, who exactly put the poison in the chalice. If someone exceptionally tall is required, then we have Ser Garlan, Mrs. Ser Garlan, and - I don't remember whether they were around at that moment - Left and Right, to pick from.

While alternate theories are made of plot holes, some of them exposed repeatedly in this thread.

Well, no, I think the holes in some of the alternate theories are smaller than the ones in the Standard Model. It depends, though, on what exactly you mean by "the Tyrion theory", for instance. Here are the three I consider most plausible:

1. The Tyrells poison Joffrey. All important members of the family are in on it, for some reason. Olenna brings the poison into the hall in her pocket, she waits til everybody's good and drunk, she sees an opportunity, passes the poison to Garlan who poisons Joffrey's wine. (Although now that I think about it, this is still full of needless complications and just-so coincidences.)

2. Littlefinger poisons Tyrion's pie, using some secret agent of his, most likely the serving man but possibly one of the fools, or someone else entirely. It goes wrong and Joffrey dies.

3. Joffrey chokes on pie, and Pycelle lies about his throat being empty, somehow tricking maesters Ballabar and Frenken or convincing them to lie too.

You'll notice that in none of those does the poison get smuggled in via Sansa's hairnet, nor do Littlefinger and the Tyrells cooperate with each other, because both of those ideas are pretty fucking ludicrous, pardon my French.

I admit I don't know why he'd have her wear the hairnet, but I can think of more plausible reasons for that than I can why the Tyrells would trust him for a second.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

9 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Awfully good guess, even for Littlefinger. I'll point out that there was very little wind that day from Tyrion's POV. And since the whole point of a hairnet is to keep the hair in place even in the wind, it would have taken an awfully big gust to mess it up.

And it would have been awkward if LF took a guess and said, "someone told you your hairnet was crooked and straightened it out for you," and Sansa would have said "No" and then LF would have said, "OK, um, then they commented on the loveliness of your hair? No? Asked you to turn around so they could admire your lovely hairnet? No? Tapped you on the opposite shoulder so you turned the wrong way? Am I getting warm?"

No, if Sansa had said no, he just smirks and says "You really need to pay more attention to your surroundings, sweetling. Did you not notice a stone was missing?" Play it off like the agent was a sleight-of-hand expert.

Plus, without seeing the hairnet, and knowing exactly how windy it was, etc, we can't say for sure that a strand of hair never went out of place. Hell, what if Shae put it on wrong?

1 minute ago, John Suburbs said:

Yes, and she also pointedly states that she wants to be in the room because she has never seen pigeons fly out of a pie.

Very interesting character is our Lady of Shae.

Hey, maybe Varys set the whole thing up to drive a wedge between Tyrion and his family

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

I had hoped for a more sensible reply to this part from you. Other posters on the thread agree that this blows a huge hole in your Cressen/pie argument so take it on the chin JS. This scene while used in comparison to Cressens scene can in absolutely no way whatsoever be used to determine that the pie is what had the poison in it so I hope you take that piece of evidence for your case off the table as it's useless. 

 

Other posters on this board think Mance is Rhaegar or Strong Belwas is King Robert -- doesn't make them right.

What my careful analysis does is remove two of your chief objections at once:

First, that the timeline between the pie entering Joffrey's mouth and his choking does not align with Cressen, and second, that the strangler can only be deployed with wine.

If you are right, and only wine can activate the strangler, then you have no choice but to begin the count at the moment Joffrey's washes the pie down with wine -- and then it dovetails perfectly with Cressen.

Check.

[Illyrio Mo'Parties]

6 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Other posters on this board think Mance is Rhaegar or Strong Belwas is King Robert -- doesn't make them right.

Who the fuck thinks Strong Belwas is Robert

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@John Suburbs

You only can't understand what I'm saying because you are blinded by your own belief that there is absolutely no chance the wine was poisoned and it just had to be the pie. 

I'll explain again though, everything ever said about the Strangler is that it is a poison dissolved in liquid. Anybody acquiring it for killing will use this weapon in this fashion whether it be for killing Joffrey, or Tyrion like you say, as any other way such as placing it in foodstuffs may not work, none of these people are experts on the poison but they will follow the rules of what they know of it to be certain of the result, sooo, at a wedding where there is wine cups and wine aplenty that is a perfect environment to use your weapon, especially when you have watched the King Joffrey absolutely steam roll his way through numerous glasses of wine that would have made Robert proud lol. Shit even Tyrion notes Joffs drinking and that he is more drunk than him and that's saying something. If it's to kill Tyrion then placing it in his wine is the surest way also he has drunk his way through nearly every course so far. He and Joffrey are hammering through wine at this feast. 

 

The first time we see Joffrey drink heavily is at his wedding; not at the feast in Winterfell, not at the riverside picnic during the tourney of the hand, not at Tyrion and Sansa's wedding. I'll go so far as to say the only time we ever see him take a sip of wine or anything else outside of his own wedding is that day on the Trident with Sansa. So during the time this whole plan is being concocted and right up to the moments before the poisoning, Joffrey has never been known to be a big drinker.

But as I said, I am certain you are wrong about the Strangler, but I'll again point out that your own theories cancel each other out. If the strangler can only be dissolved in wine, then the moment Joffrey drinks the wine after he has the pie in his mouth is the moment we start comparing the two poisons, and they match up nearly perfectly.

 

16 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

When Joffrey lays the chalice down there is ample time for anybody to place the poison in it and expect him to drink it soon after he picks it up again, as per his behaviour that day. As soon as Tyrion had refilled it for him he drank deep before laying it down, it's what he's been doing all day. 

The only way someone could have poisoned the chalice is they had to be in exactly the right place at the right time. And in order to do that, they would have to know ahead of time that it would be placed exactly where it was -- not a foot to the left or the right -- and even then, it's a million-to-one shot to accomplishing this without being seen. We're talking about reaching over the lip of the three-foot chalice sitting plain as day on the table in front of literally hundreds of people, including two people who are looking up past the lip as the pigeons are flying around the room. Even if you accept that Garlan (and it is only Garlan, not "anybody" who is in position to even attempt this) could have done this virtually impossible thing (again, without being seen by not one of the hundreds of people in the room), it is downright ludicrous to think Lady O would give her go-ahead on this highly risky plan when practically her entire family is in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards. And all to prevent possible mistreatment of Margaery that might not come for months or even years, long after she has born the new heir and cemented House Tyrell to the Iron Throne.

16 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

How do you explain some of the wine running red on the dais also JS? You can't think it's blood can you? Why is the wine described as purple and red?. 

If I was to say that the first scoof Joff takes was purple because the crystal had been dissolving into the top part of the wine, then some wine spilled on the floor showing its original red colour before it was poisoned, then the chalice sits for a bit on the floor and the final half inch of wine Tyrion spills out is purple as the remains of the crystal had coloured the final drops of wine at the bottom of the chalice in the time it lay on the floor, then that explanation holds just as much weight as your pie theory in any court of law in the world. 

Lol, my explanation is easy. The remnants of whatever poison that was still in Joffrey's mouth had only entered the chalice seconds before, so the poison had not time to diffuse before the bulk of the wine spilled out. The dregs that were left contained either part or all of the crystal, or perhaps poisoned pie filling, that turned it purple.

So let me get this straight: the crystal is dropped into the wine and floats around on the top during the entire cutting, discoloring only the upper layers of wine. Then, after Joff has stirred the contents of the chalice nice and thoroughly, the poison sinks to the bottom like mud, leaving all the wine in the middle completely unaffected. This may hold up in the Red Queen's court in Wonderland, but anywhere else you'd be laughed out into the street.

[John Suburbs]

16 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@John Suburbs

Another thing I'll add. I don't think the doves flying pie is the one for eating but it stands to reason in my eyes that the pie the guests are eating will also be from a large pie, or pies, being cut below the dais. Check the three Frey pies at Winterfell, for a wedding of less extravagance, they are massive so I presume GRRM makes all his wedding pies big in this fashion so I presume that they would have been wheeled in with the ceremonial pie. I at least have the benefit of an example for comparison such as the three Frey pies, you have just made something up to suit your theory it seems. 

Also, can you clarify, do you have the servant who gives Tyrion the pie slice working for the Tyrell's? If so why is Olenna placing the poison in Tyrions slice when the servant is looking away up at the doves flying around if they are in league with each other? I'll wait for your answer to these things before we continue, I want to know your thoughts on how exactly the poison is placed in Tyrions pie slice. 

It doesn't stand to reason. If they wait to start cutting and plating pies until after the pigeons are loose, it would take several minutes for Tyrion to get his, and probably an hour or more before the entire room is served.

I see that you presume a lot, but this is Martin, so I am extremely careful with what I presume.

Tyrion provides a clear, unobstructed view of the entire scene, and at this point in the chapter, he is providing us with a moment-by-moment description of everything that happens, in real time. So the sequence is crystal clear. It goes: cut, pigeons, applause, music, twirl, pie. It doesn't say: cut, pigeons, applause, music, twirl, and then an army of pastry chefs marched into the room and started cutting pies for all the guests. Heck, they'd have to start pushing aside the high lords and ladies just to make enough room to cut all these pies and deliver them to the guests.

So with the pies being served so quickly after the cutting, and the person viewing the scene making no mention of any actual pies being cut and plated, the only logical conclusion is that they are already cut and plated and waiting to be served. And the only logical place for that to happen is somewhere behind the head table, right where Lady O happens to be standing the last time we see her.

There is no reason for Lady O to involve a servant, a family member or anyone else in this plot. The pie is either on a table waiting to be served, or at worst is already in the hands of a servant. All she has to do is make sure this one person is looking upward for a split second, and in goes the crystal. The wine, of course, requires Garlan to ensure that not one single person out of literally hundreds does not happen to spot him raising his arm to the chalice -- a virtually impossible task and way to risky for Lady O to jeopardize her entire family to prevent a possibility that hasn't even presented itself yet.

[John Suburbs]

14 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

@John Suburbs

This is the part you will have to do better at explaining JS. 

So you have Olenna being "in charge" at the feast. She somehow knows which slice the server will take to Tyrion although she appears to be not in league with the server as you have her sneakily placing the crystal in the pie when the server is looking up at the doves? 

And the server isn't the only person with an interest in it, Tyrion is studying the pie as soon as it's laid in front of him, that's in the text. So, you have a timeframe of when the pie slice appears to it getting to Tyrion for her to place it in the pie slice. 

Please state exactly what you think happens in this scenario, from whos working for who, who's in on the plot, where the pie comes from, where Olenna is when she places the crystal in the pie slice. All that juicy stuff, paint me a picture here. And use quotes from the text to back up your story please. 

Lady O has been shown to be a micromanager, especially when it comes to food. "The cheese will be served when I want it served, and I want it served right now."

So as the head of the house that is providing all the food, and the grandmother of the bride, it would be well within her prerogative to ensure that this very formal event at the feast goes off without a hitch. That means she can easily instruct the wait staff to be at the ready waiting to serve pies to everyone at the head table, with all the pies lined up so she knows exactly which one is for Little Lord Tyrion -- and no one will think this is unusual in any way, shape or form.

The poison is introduced at the moment the pigeons take flight, with her making sure that the only person who has any business at all looking at this particular piece of pie, the server, is looking up. It's already in there by the time the plate is served.

Lady O's last known position is thus:
 

Quote

 

My lord, beware," the knight warned. "The king."

Tyrion turned in his seat. Joffrey was almost upon him, red-faced and staggering..."

snip, for the whole wine-dumping sequence

Queen Margaery appeared suddenly at Joffrey's elbow. "My sweet king," the Tyrell girl entreated, "come, return to your place, there's another singer waiting."

"Alaric of Eysen," said Lady Olenna, leaning on her cane and taking no more notice of the wine-soaked dwarf than her granddaughter had done..."

 

So from this we can conclude that Lady Olenna is on her feet and somewhere behind Tyrion, since he never notices her approach until after he had turned in his seat. And this is exactly where the pies will be coming from momentarily, since it is absurd to think that servers would be reaching all the way across the head table to serve the guests from the front -- indeed, if there is even room on the dais to stand on that side.

[John Suburbs]

12 hours ago, Red Man Racey said:

I've always just assumed that Left or Right did it so the height issue really wasn't one.

 

This is not the case. The Tyrells WANT Margaery to be queen, they don't much care who she's married to. In fact, it is much more likely that they want Joffrey dead with everything they know about him. Once Margaery is queen, Joffrey is unnecessary.

I don't ever recall seeing Left or Right in the throne room at all, and I find it inconceivable that she would need protection in the Red Keep at Margaery's wedding with all the chivalry of the realm, and Gold Cloaks, to protect her.

And at her last known position, Tyrion would have utterly failed to notice to hulking guards on either side of her or the fact that one of them just leaned over his chair to place his hand at the top of the chalice. So no, L&R are not there. It's more plausible that Butterbumps juggled the poison into the chalice from halfway across the room.

Margaery as queen is only a means to an end. What the Tyrells really want is an heir that will cement their house to the Iron Throne. With Joffrey they get that within the year, while Tommen, even if the offer is made, will not be ready for another five years minimum. This is a realm at war with itself, where deadly diseases -- particularly ones that attack children -- come out of nowhere, assassinations are ever-present and accidents happen. Anything could happen in five years.

Besides, we have Joffrey acting like a veritable puppy around Margaery both before and during the wedding, so the chances of him harming her that night are nil. If and when he becomes a problem, there are all sort of ways to off him and make it look like an accident, and then Margy rules as Queen Regent until her son comes of age.

And even if he does start to go all-Sansa on Margaery, surely a few black eyes and a bloody lip are worth the Iron Throne? It's not anything that Cersei hasn't endured.

[John Suburbs]

11 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

You simply can not say that there are serving people just waiting behind the dais with pre plated pie servings that have been cut elsewhere, like in the kitchens perhaps and expect us to take your word for it because it suits your theory.

We don't know the story of where Tyrions pie slice came from but having it come from a huge pie that was wheeled out behind the ceremonial pie is just as likely as anything you can conjure up to suit your theory. 

In the time it takes to cut the dove pie, see the doves fly around, for the musicians to then start up the music again, and for Joffrey to start twirling Margaery that is plenty time for other servers to have already been cutting another large pie (or pies) below the dais and start taking them up to the dais. Easily.

And going by Tyrions behaviour right up until the serving of the pie slice, the poisoner actually has every reason to believe Tyrion could not give two shits about eating what's placed in front of him, or facing the Kings wrath for not doing so. 

He had drank his way through the last twenty odd courses, openly mocked Joffrey and generally been an outspoken drunkard. He simply does not care and anybod looking to poison him with food will know this, its obvious. 

If anybody wanted to poison Tyrion with food at this stage, there a dumbass and missed their chance twenty odd courses beforehand. 

Sorry, but no. See above. It's perfectly reasonable to make logical conclusions about what is happening in areas that are not part of the POV, but grasping at straws to say that we are seeing all the action taking place right before our eyes except the thing you need to support your theory.

No common chef or serving person is going to start flashing blades and around and cutting pies at the foot of the head table where the king is dancing with his new queen. It's just absurd.

The Wedding Pie is a formal event in the feast. Everyone would be expected to eat of it, drunk or no. By this logic, why did they wait so long to poison Joffrey's wine? They could have done it just as easily anywhere else and not risk for Joffrey to suddenly get anxious for the bedding.

[John Suburbs]

10 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said:

I was curious how others read GRRMs statements here. I personally think they spell it out quite clearly that Joffrey always was the target. Or am I missing something.

"I don’t know how it comes across in the show, because I haven’t actually seen it yet, but the poison that is used to kill Joffrey is one that I introduce earlier in the books and its symptoms are similar to choking. So a feast is the perfect time to use this thing. I think the intent of the murderer is not to have this become another Red Wedding—the Red Wedding was very clearly murder and butchery. I think the idea with Joffrey’s death was to make it look like an accident — someone’s out celebrating, they haven’t invented the Heimlich maneuver, so when someone gets food caught in his throat, it’s very serious.

"I based it a little on the death of Eustace, the son of King Stephen of England. Stephen had usurped the crown from his cousin, the empress Maude, and they fought a long civil war and the anarchy and the war would be passed down to second generation, because Maude had a son and Henry and Stephen had a son. But Eustace choked to death at a feast. People are still debating a thousand of years later: Did he choke to death or was he poisoned? Because by removing Eustace, it brought about a peace that ended the English civil war. Eustace’s death was accepted [as accidental], and I think that’s what the murderers here were hoping for — the whole realm will see Joffrey choke to death on a piece of pie or something."

Doesnt this spell it out for us that GRRM thinks the murderers had Joffrey in mind?

In virtually every response in that interview, GR mixes the book, the show and historical precedent, so I find it impossible to determine what exactly he is talking about at any given point. The entire interview is about the PW in the show, so I contend that his overall answer is in relation to the show, but others naturally disagree.

I think they'll feel cheated when the reveal comes out, but I'm trying my best to get them to see the light.

[John Suburbs]

5 hours ago, Clegane'sPup said:

Martin: In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it.

http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/george-r-r-martin-on-who-killed-joffrey-20140414

 

I love it, "the conclusion that the careful reader draws..."

Classic Martin.

[JonSnow4President]

Forgive me if it's been discussed through the 9 pages I haven't read, but why would the Tyrells give a flying f*** about Tyrion?  I can see Littlefinger wanting to kill Tyrion to free up Sansa, but I can't see a logical reason the Tryells care about him.

GRRM also has a few proven inconsistencies, including some he's acknowledged (Jeyne's hips being an example) or things that are illogical but seem cool (like Robert's warhammer or Ice or a 14 year old picking up an adult by their throat). Personally, even drinking out of a 3 foot chalice one handed seems impossible in that scene. Practically being able to poison a chalice that size at a location designed to be the center of attention seems silly.  So does Olenna arranging for a specific piece of pie to be served to a specific guest ahead of time, or dissolving a crystalline substance in pie without disturbing it after being cooked (or trying to get it to pass unnoticed by the person eating it).  As is often the case with fiction, small details don't really work when hyper analyzed.

So what's more likely? The Tyrells were involved in a plot to kill Tyrion, a man fallen from real power with no real relevance to the Tyrells (with no eligible daughters, a claim on Casterly Rock in the family is not really possible), or that the Tyrells were eliminating Joffrey due to doubts about his ability to not go sadist on Margery (which could jeopardize putting Tyrell heirs on the throne). Tommen also allows faster potential political control for the Tyrell dynasty than the intractable Joffrey.

[John Suburbs]

4 hours ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said:

Won't it look super lame, if he does? We get introduced to the strangler, dissolved in a cup of wine, in the ACOK's prologue. We got a Joffrey murder mystery in mid ASOS, and a solution in the late chapters of the same book. We get who, whom, what motive, by what means, and it all fits well enough. Case closed, filed as "solved".

But, in Book 6, or Book 7, or even later, we'll get a, allegedly shocking, revelation that it wasn't so. Not at all. When the Wall has fallen, the Others are marching south, and on the other end of the continent dragons soar again over Westerosi sky, we'll be expected to be invested in new solution of this old puzzle? From which we won't even learn anything new?

Because what's the lesson we'll get from the new reveal? That Littlefinger wanted to do Tyrion in (again), or that Littlefinger lies on occasion (no comment)? A shocking swerve, they call it. A plot twist that twists in the sake of twisting, yet doesn't actually bring anything new.

Compared to the Tyrion theory? M'lord is jesting, of course?

The only semi-interesting missing puzzle is, who exactly put the poison in the chalice. If someone exceptionally tall is required, then we have Ser Garlan, Mrs. Ser Garlan, and - I don't remember whether they were around at that moment - Left and Right, to pick from.

While alternate theories are made of plot holes, some of them exposed repeatedly in this thread.

@Trigger Warning

Lol, you mean kind of like the way that, for nearly three full novels, all the evidence pointed to Cersei and Jaime killing Jon Arryn, to the point where even Pycelle confirms that Cersei wanted him dead, and then it turns out to be Petyr and Lysa instead?

Or like when we get introduced to Jeyne Westerling early in Clash as the accidental love interest of Robb Stark, go through the Red Wedding, and then late in Feast we get the shocking revelation that the whole thing was a setup designed by Tywin Lannister?

Or like it appears that Arya leaves the Hound to die, and then this strange guy shows up in a monk's outfit with a burned face?

No, inconceivable that GRRM would stoop so low.

Neither Garlan, and certainly not Leonette, is described as exceptionally tall. And L&R are seen nowhere at the wedding. Indeed, it would be very odd for Lady O to need their protection in the Red Keep. Nobody else has their personal guards about.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

I can mostly agree with that analysis, but it's not conclusive. Do bear in mind that Lady Olenna is a fictional character and if GRRM wants to make her place her grandchildren's well-being above the ambitions of her house (a house I might add that she married into), then he can. And we do have her own words, in front of Sansa, pouring scorn on her son's ambitions.

And bear in mind: if the Tyrells did kill Joffrey, then it's not to save Margaery from Joffrey as much as it is to save Loras from execution, and the family from the shame of having a kingslayer in the ranks... and even, though I'm contradicting myself, the royal ambitions: if Loras really did murder Joffrey in a rage, as Sansa thinks he might, then would the Lannisters permit Tommen to be married to Margaery? I know the danger would've passed with Loras dead or at the Wall (assuming nobody in House Tyrell tries to shelter him or take his side), but the shame etc might be enough to give Tywin a reason to say no to Margaery the Twice-Widowed, the Black Maid of Highgarden, who brings treason and murder wherever she goes, etc, etc...

 

Nothing in a character analysis is conclusive, but somebody has to be the one in charge at Highgarden, and judging by they way she orders Mace around at Tywin's funeral, that can only be Olenna. By the same token, if GRRM wants to make her an authentic head of a feudal house, he can do that as well and pull the wool over his entire readership's eyes (except for the really sharp ones) as to what really happened at the Purple Wedding.

We also have Lady O's own words that Margaery marrying an evil psycho-murderer boy king is nothing but "a pity." Plus Margaery who says she has nothing to fear.

Hogwash to that whole bit about Loras going bananas and killing Joffrey. This is nothing but Littlefinger spinning the whole tale again. Loras went ape when he came into the tent and suddenly found his lover-king butchered like a hog, but there is not the slightest bit of evidence that Joffrey intends this for Margy nor that Lady O or Margaery believe he will. He gave Sansa a few black eyes and a bloody lip -- surely well worth the price of the Iron Throne, and nothing that Cersei or countless other queens, both real and fictional, haven't endured.

[JonSnow4President]

9 minutes ago, John Suburbs said:

Neither Garlan, and certainly not Leonette, is described as exceptionally tall. And L&R are seen nowhere at the wedding. Indeed, it would be very odd for Lady O to need their protection in the Red Keep. Nobody else has their personal guards about.

FYI, Garlan fits Renly's armor, who is described as the second coming of Robert who was an exceptionally tall man (Renly is supposed to be a few inches shorter, but he's still likely taller than 6 feet, a height I'd have no issue reaching while standing (6'3").  

Depending on how close I was to the chalice and how it blocked the view of my arm (if I'm there, quite reliably, especially with the bridge and groom cutting a cake in a different direction), that's easily doable. I'm also a fat ass who has to account for the depth of a gut that Garlan surely doesn't have, so he could get higher than I could.

Forgive me, it's been about a year since I've read the scene, but do the books ever give us an indication Margery wasn't involved?  She of course has the best opportunity to surreptitiously slip something into the chalice and then avoid consumption.

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

No, if Sansa had said no, he just smirks and says "You really need to pay more attention to your surroundings, sweetling. Did you not notice a stone was missing?" Play it off like the agent was a sleight-of-hand expert.

Plus, without seeing the hairnet, and knowing exactly how windy it was, etc, we can't say for sure that a strand of hair never went out of place. Hell, what if Shae put it on wrong?

Hey, maybe Varys set the whole thing up to drive a wedge between Tyrion and his family

I might be getting confused, but I thought the point of that original comment was that the hairnet had nothing to do with the poisoning and that LF was just guessing that someone had fiddled with it.

So I guess my question would be why he would go through all that trouble to bring it to Sansa, have Shae muck with it, trust that Lady O or someone would try to fix it, all so he could have a lie ready for Sansa as to how the poisoning happened?

[John Suburbs]

2 hours ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said:

Who the fuck thinks Strong Belwas is Robert

Was a thread a little while ago. Can't be disproven, of course. Magic.