Macgregor of the North Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 10/02/2017 at 11:37 PM, John Suburbs said: You have your answer in your own post. Joffrey has the pie in his mouth and starts coughing slightly. Then he takes a slug of wine and washes that down his throat, and literally within five or six seconds he "tries to speak but his words caught in his throat." Exactly the same reaction as Cressen, and in a nearly identical timeframe. I had hoped for a more sensible reply to this part from you. Other posters on the thread agree that this blows a huge hole in your Cressen/pie argument so take it on the chin JS. This scene while used in comparison to Cressens scene can in absolutely no way whatsoever be used to determine that the pie is what had the poison in it so I hope you take that piece of evidence for your case off the table as it's useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macgregor of the North Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 @John Suburbs Quote To argue that poison is dissolved in wine and therefore it can be deployed only in wine is like saying knights ride horses and therefore they are incapable or riding anything else. You only can't understand what I'm saying because you are blinded by your own belief that there is absolutely no chance the wine was poisoned and it just had to be the pie. I'll explain again though, everything ever said about the Strangler is that it is a poison dissolved in liquid. Anybody acquiring it for killing will use this weapon in this fashion whether it be for killing Joffrey, or Tyrion like you say, as any other way such as placing it in foodstuffs may not work, none of these people are experts on the poison but they will follow the rules of what they know of it to be certain of the result, sooo, at a wedding where there is wine cups and wine aplenty that is a perfect environment to use your weapon, especially when you have watched the King Joffrey absolutely steam roll his way through numerous glasses of wine that would have made Robert proud lol. Shit even Tyrion notes Joffs drinking and that he is more drunk than him and that's saying something. If it's to kill Tyrion then placing it in his wine is the surest way also he has drunk his way through nearly every course so far. He and Joffrey are hammering through wine at this feast. When Joffrey lays the chalice down there is ample time for anybody to place the poison in it and expect him to drink it soon after he picks it up again, as per his behaviour that day. As soon as Tyrion had refilled it for him he drank deep before laying it down, it's what he's been doing all day. How do you explain some of the wine running red on the dais also JS? You can't think it's blood can you? Why is the wine described as purple and red?. If I was to say that the first scoof Joff takes was purple because the crystal had been dissolving into the top part of the wine, then some wine spilled on the floor showing its original red colour before it was poisoned, then the chalice sits for a bit on the floor and the final half inch of wine Tyrion spills out is purple as the remains of the crystal had coloured the final drops of wine at the bottom of the chalice in the time it lay on the floor, then that explanation holds just as much weight as your pie theory in any court of law in the world. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macgregor of the North Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 @John Suburbs Another thing I'll add. I don't think the doves flying pie is the one for eating but it stands to reason in my eyes that the pie the guests are eating will also be from a large pie, or pies, being cut below the dais. Check the three Frey pies at Winterfell, for a wedding of less extravagance, they are massive so I presume GRRM makes all his wedding pies big in this fashion so I presume that they would have been wheeled in with the ceremonial pie. I at least have the benefit of an example for comparison such as the three Frey pies, you have just made something up to suit your theory it seems. Also, can you clarify, do you have the servant who gives Tyrion the pie slice working for the Tyrell's? If so why is Olenna placing the poison in Tyrions slice when the servant is looking away up at the doves flying around if they are in league with each other? I'll wait for your answer to these things before we continue, I want to know your thoughts on how exactly the poison is placed in Tyrions pie slice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macgregor of the North Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 @John Suburbs Quote So the rest, yes, Lady O is in charge of the feast and she can easily arrange it so she knows which pie is Tyrion's and exactly where it will be at the crucial moment when she can poison it when the one person who has any interest in it, the server, is diverted by the pigeons. She doesn't need any help to do this: no need to place family members at risk, no "trusted servants" to gamble your life on, no loose lips to sink the ship -- just two plotters who are both in this thing up to their necks and must keep faith with each other or die. This is the part you will have to do better at explaining JS. So you have Olenna being "in charge" at the feast. She somehow knows which slice the server will take to Tyrion although she appears to be not in league with the server as you have her sneakily placing the crystal in the pie when the server is looking up at the doves? And the server isn't the only person with an interest in it, Tyrion is studying the pie as soon as it's laid in front of him, that's in the text. So, you have a timeframe of when the pie slice appears to it getting to Tyrion for her to place it in the pie slice. Please state exactly what you think happens in this scenario, from whos working for who, who's in on the plot, where the pie comes from, where Olenna is when she places the crystal in the pie slice. All that juicy stuff, paint me a picture here. And use quotes from the text to back up your story please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red Man Racey Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/10/2017 at 4:42 PM, John Suburbs said: No holes, honestly? How does Garlan or anyone else reach to the top of a three-foot chalice that is sitting on a waist-high table in front of thousands of eyes, including the pair from two short people who are looking upward past the rim, without being seen? To get an idea of this challenge, take a yardstick and stand it upright on your kitchen table about an arm's length in and then imagine two short people standing right next to you as you do this. Even in the million-to-one chance that this succeeds, why on earth would Lady O agree to such a risky plan when she and practically her entire immediate family are in the throne room surrounded by Lannister guards? I've always just assumed that Left or Right did it so the height issue really wasn't one. On 2/10/2017 at 6:01 PM, Luddagain said: There is no sense in Lady Oleanna doing it - they WANT Joffrey alive. This is not the case. The Tyrells WANT Margaery to be queen, they don't much care who she's married to. In fact, it is much more likely that they want Joffrey dead with everything they know about him. Once Margaery is queen, Joffrey is unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macgregor of the North Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 11/02/2017 at 0:06 AM, John Suburbs said: The textual evidence of the fact that no pies are being cut below the dais is that no one sees any pies being cut below the dais. And yet, Tyrion's pie is served within a few seconds after the cutting ceremony. Literally, it goes cut, pigeons, ooh/aah, music, twirl, pie. If the individual slices are not already cut and plated and somewhere behind the head table, there is simply no way they could have been served so quickly. Tyrion would be expected to eat of the royal Wedding Pie. Whether he actually does or not is irrelevant. The plotters have every reason in the world to expect that he would, or risk the wrath of the king later. You simply can not say that there are serving people just waiting behind the dais with pre plated pie servings that have been cut elsewhere, like in the kitchens perhaps and expect us to take your word for it because it suits your theory. We don't know the story of where Tyrions pie slice came from but having it come from a huge pie that was wheeled out behind the ceremonial pie is just as likely as anything you can conjure up to suit your theory. In the time it takes to cut the dove pie, see the doves fly around, for the musicians to then start up the music again, and for Joffrey to start twirling Margaery that is plenty time for other servers to have already been cutting another large pie (or pies) below the dais and start taking them up to the dais. Easily. And going by Tyrions behaviour right up until the serving of the pie slice, the poisoner actually has every reason to believe Tyrion could not give two shits about eating what's placed in front of him, or facing the Kings wrath for not doing so. He had drank his way through the last twenty odd courses, openly mocked Joffrey and generally been an outspoken drunkard. He simply does not care and anybod looking to poison him with food will know this, its obvious. If anybody wanted to poison Tyrion with food at this stage, there a dumbass and missed their chance twenty odd courses beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macgregor of the North Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 I was curious how others read GRRMs statements here. I personally think they spell it out quite clearly that Joffrey always was the target. Or am I missing something. "I don’t know how it comes across in the show, because I haven’t actually seen it yet, but the poison that is used to kill Joffrey is one that I introduce earlier in the books and its symptoms are similar to choking. So a feast is the perfect time to use this thing. I think the intent of the murderer is not to have this become another Red Wedding—the Red Wedding was very clearly murder and butchery. I think the idea with Joffrey’s death was to make it look like an accident — someone’s out celebrating, they haven’t invented the Heimlich maneuver, so when someone gets food caught in his throat, it’s very serious. "I based it a little on the death of Eustace, the son of King Stephen of England. Stephen had usurped the crown from his cousin, the empress Maude, and they fought a long civil war and the anarchy and the war would be passed down to second generation, because Maude had a son and Henry and Stephen had a son. But Eustace choked to death at a feast. People are still debating a thousand of years later: Did he choke to death or was he poisoned? Because by removing Eustace, it brought about a peace that ended the English civil war. Eustace’s death was accepted [as accidental], and I think that’s what the murderers here were hoping for — the whole realm will see Joffrey choke to death on a piece of pie or something." Doesnt this spell it out for us that GRRM thinks the murderers had Joffrey in mind? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherFromAnotherMother Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 3 minutes ago, Macgregor of the North said: Doesnt this spell it out for us that GRRM thinks the murderers had Joffrey in mind? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Macgregor of the North Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 minutes ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said: Yes. I know some may come back and say he may have been talking about the show and all that but in the interview he is clearly talking about how he wrote the scene in like 98 and mentions the books quite alot in the interview so I think he is genuinely talking like Joff was indeed always the target in the story as a whole, in both screen adaptation and books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illyrio Mo'Parties Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 16 hours ago, OtherFromAnotherMother said: Interestingly enough, it was Shae who helped Sansa with the hairnet. Isn't Shae working in the kitchens at one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Illyrio Mo'Parties Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 4 hours ago, Macgregor of the North said: I was curious how others read GRRMs statements here. I personally think they spell it out quite clearly that Joffrey always was the target. Or am I missing something. "I don’t know how it comes across in the show, because I haven’t actually seen it yet, but the poison that is used to kill Joffrey is one that I introduce earlier in the books and its symptoms are similar to choking. So a feast is the perfect time to use this thing. I think the intent of the murderer is not to have this become another Red Wedding—the Red Wedding was very clearly murder and butchery. I think the idea with Joffrey’s death was to make it look like an accident — someone’s out celebrating, they haven’t invented the Heimlich maneuver, so when someone gets food caught in his throat, it’s very serious. "I based it a little on the death of Eustace, the son of King Stephen of England. Stephen had usurped the crown from his cousin, the empress Maude, and they fought a long civil war and the anarchy and the war would be passed down to second generation, because Maude had a son and Henry and Stephen had a son. But Eustace choked to death at a feast. People are still debating a thousand of years later: Did he choke to death or was he poisoned? Because by removing Eustace, it brought about a peace that ended the English civil war. Eustace’s death was accepted [as accidental], and I think that’s what the murderers here were hoping for — the whole realm will see Joffrey choke to death on a piece of pie or something." Doesnt this spell it out for us that GRRM thinks the murderers had Joffrey in mind? He wrote that episode though, so it's not as clear cut as that. Also, there's the SSM where he reserves the right to change it in future. Don't you think though, if it is the case that Joffrey was the target, that the plot is full of holes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clegane'sPup Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 10 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said: He wrote that episode though, so it's not as clear cut as that. Martin: In the books — and I make no promises, because I have two more books to write, and I may have more surprises to reveal — the conclusion that the careful reader draws is that Joffrey was killed by the Queen of Thorns, using poison from Sansa’s hair net, so that if anyone actually did think it was poison, then Sansa would be blamed for it. Sansa had certainly good reason for it. http://www.rollingstone.com/tv/news/george-r-r-martin-on-who-killed-joffrey-20140414 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhaenys_Targaryen Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 55 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said: Isn't Shae working in the kitchens at one point? No. He considers doing to before the Battle of the Blackwater The kiss aroused him, as her kisses always did, but this time Tyrion gently disentangled himself. "Not now. Sweetling, I have . . . well, call it the seed of a plan. I think I might be able to bring you into the castle kitchens." But Varys points out the potential problems in the plan, and suggests having her work as a maid for Lollys instead. His scarred elbow was throbbing, jarred every time the horse set down a hoof. Sometimes he could almost fancy he heard the bones grinding together inside. Perhaps he should see a maester, get some potion for the pain . . . but since Pycelle had revealed himself for what he was, Tyrion Lannister mistrusted the maesters. The gods only knew who they were conspiring with, or what they had mixed in those potions they gave you. "Varys," he said. "I need to bring Shae into the castle without Cersei becoming aware." Briefly, he sketched out his kitchen scheme. When he was done, the eunuch made a little clucking sound. "I will do as my lord commands, of course . . . but I must warn you, the kitchens are full of eyes and ears. Even if the girl falls under no particular suspicion, she will be subject to a thousand questions. Where was she born? Who were her parents? How did she come to King's Landing? The truth will never do, so she must lie . . . and lie, and lie." He glanced down at Tyrion. "And such a pretty young kitchen wench will incite lust as well as curiosity. She will be touched, pinched, patted, and fondled. Pot boys will crawl under her blankets of a night. Some lonely cook may seek to wed her. Bakers will knead her breasts with floured hands." “I’d sooner have her fondled than stabbed,” said Tyrion. Varys rode on a few paces and said, “It might be that there is another way. As it happens, the maidservant who attends Lady Tanda’s daughter has been filching her jewels. Were I to inform Lady Tanda, she would be forced to dismiss the girl at once. And the daughter would require a new maidservant.” So Shae goes to work for Lollys. And after Tyrion marries Sansa, he hires Shae as one of Sansa's maids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ferocious Veldt Roarer Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 51 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said: He wrote that episode though, so it's not as clear cut as that. Also, there's the SSM where he reserves the right to change it in future. Won't it look super lame, if he does? We get introduced to the strangler, dissolved in a cup of wine, in the ACOK's prologue. We got a Joffrey murder mystery in mid ASOS, and a solution in the late chapters of the same book. We get who, whom, what motive, by what means, and it all fits well enough. Case closed, filed as "solved". But, in Book 6, or Book 7, or even later, we'll get a, allegedly shocking, revelation that it wasn't so. Not at all. When the Wall has fallen, the Others are marching south, and on the other end of the continent dragons soar again over Westerosi sky, we'll be expected to be invested in new solution of this old puzzle? From which we won't even learn anything new? Because what's the lesson we'll get from the new reveal? That Littlefinger wanted to do Tyrion in (again), or that Littlefinger lies on occasion (no comment)? A shocking swerve, they call it. A plot twist that twists in the sake of twisting, yet doesn't actually bring anything new. 51 minutes ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said: Don't you think though, if it is the case that Joffrey was the target, that the plot is full of holes? Compared to the Tyrion theory? M'lord is jesting, of course? The only semi-interesting missing puzzle is, who exactly put the poison in the chalice. If someone exceptionally tall is required, then we have Ser Garlan, Mrs. Ser Garlan, and - I don't remember whether they were around at that moment - Left and Right, to pick from. While alternate theories are made of plot holes, some of them exposed repeatedly in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/10/2017 at 10:22 PM, Colonel Green said: By using the secret passage we see Littlefinger himself use with Ned earlier. If the messenger is traveling the same route as Sansa, he wouldn't get there much ahead of her. Again, sigh, The secret passage down the side of the cliff leads out of the Red Keep entirely. All anyone needs to do to get a message out to LF is leave the throne room, which as Tyrion notes: Quote In the rear of the throne room, scuffling had broken out around the doors, and the guests were trampling on each other. Ser Addam's gold cloaks moved in to restore order. Guests were rushing headlong out into the night, some weeping, some stumbling and retching, some white with fear. So even as the guards are moving in, plenty of people have already gotten out. From there, he could climb the battlements to send a signal, out one of the secret passages or through the main gate with the rest of the crowd. The quickest route to Littlefinger, of course, is by the same route that Sansa uses, and sorry, but he has plenty of time to get there before she does: Sansa first heads to the godswood, changes, has her conversation with Dontos, and then she climbs slowly down the cliff. A determined man would head straight to the cliff and be down quick as you please. Then he would only have to row a short distance to where Littlefinger is and provide him with a full report of all he's seen. On 2/10/2017 at 10:22 PM, Colonel Green said: If it's so dark out that he can't see other ships nearby, then by that same logic the other ships cannot see him either. He doesn't have to worry about that until he actually has Sansa. If Tywin sends his ships out to scour the bay, they can search the ship all they want and all they appear to be is a trader coming in or going out. Once he has Sansa, he has to make sure no one is around for leagues so he can safely pick her up and sail her away. On 2/10/2017 at 10:22 PM, Colonel Green said: As addressed above, this hypothetical other agent would not bring him any particularly useful information in any amount of time meaningful time. Gee, only that maybe the plan had gone bust, everyone has been captured and Tywin Lannister knows exactly where you are and has sent the royal navy out to arrest you. Honestly, do you think Littlefinger would execute the most dangerous plot of his life, with virtually everything he's worked for over the past decade or more on the line, and his plan is nothing more than sit in a boat in the middle of the bay all night long and hope against hope that Sansa will come rowing out of the mist at dawn? And if she doesn't, he has no way of knowing what happened or whether his own life in danger, and this despite the fact that: Quote "You could turn King's Landing upside down and not find a single man with a mockingbird sewn over his heart, but that does not mean I am friendless." On 2/10/2017 at 10:22 PM, Colonel Green said: As I already noted, and as GRRM himself later said, there is no purpose to having Sansa wear the hairnet other than to set her up to take the fall if need be. The people walking into the hall aren't being searched; it would otherwise be much easier for Olenna to just take the poison herself. The idea that Littlefinger just gave Sansa the poison with no plan for how to use it, to the point where they didn't even have any other poison once they'd decided on a course of action, is ridiculous. So Tywin Lannister finds out that Sansa carried the poison in on the hairnet, and you don't think he is going to wonder how this little girl, all by herself, with no money and no friends either inside our outside the capital, managed to acquire the rarest most expensive poison in the world and fashioned a silver hairnet with a trick clasp -- all so she could reach up to her head to get it rather than just pull it out of her pocket. The very first question they are going to ask her is, "Where did you get the hairnet?", to which she will respond, "Ser Dontos," who will, of course, be dead (but obviously not by any agent from Littlefinger, who could care less whether Sansa, Dontos or anyone else lives or dies should this eventuality present itself). Then, since the idea of wearing poison on your head is, frankly, silly, the only reason one would do this is to make it easier for someone else to take the poison, which leads to the next obvious question: "Did anyone touch your hair that day, my lady." "Why, yes, come to think of it..." Putting the pieces in place before Littlefinger knows how they are to be used is his exact MO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OtherFromAnotherMother Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 1 hour ago, Illyrio Mo'Parties said: Isn't Shae working in the kitchens at one point? No. They discuss it but it doesn't end up happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 0:55 AM, SFDanny said: Then you have a different book than I do. In mine Sansa refuses to go to her knees and Tyrion is forced to stand on Ser Dontos's back to drape the wedding cloak around Sansa's shoulders. How does any of this say it is impossible for Tyrion to reach a hairnet on Sansa's head while they are seated side by side? It doesn't and you are using one set of facts to assume another. Sorry, but you don't have the evidence to do that. True, thanks. But the point is the same: he is too short to reach her shoulders, so her head is out of the question. It is not impossible, but when your goal is to murder the king, why would you bother to craft a special hairnet with a trick clasp so that instead of just carrying the poison in your pocket, you can risk being seen plucking it off your wife's head? This is not the kind of thing that Tywin Lannister is going to miss. On 2/11/2017 at 0:55 AM, SFDanny said: Poison in the pocket is not very accessible to Lady Olenna is it? It wouldn't do for her to have to pick Sansa's pocket to get access to the poison. Nor does it make much sense to tell Sansa that she must bring a bunch of purple crystals to the wedding in her pocket. Or to get Tyrion to do the same. Even Sansa might get suspicious of why she is being told to do so. Tyrion would know the set up in a minute. Sansa wearing a beautiful hairnet on the other hand does not seem like such an outrageous and strange request, and all Lady Olenna need do is to "help" the young girl with her hair to gain access to the murder weapon, and to have it found on Sansa's person. Please remember that Tyrion does not take the crystal from the hairnet. He and Sansa are only patsies, set up to take the fall. As such the finding of the poison on Sansa is proof positive to the world of their guilt. It's what every good murder conspiracy needs. Sansa and Tyrion both have the motive to murder Joffrey, and they have the means to do so. No one will bother with their protests of innocence. They certainly didn't with Tyrion. Why would they do so with Sansa? She is only his co-conspirator in the crime, who brings the murder weapon into the wedding and tries to take it away from searching eyes. But you're talking about the plan to frame Sansa for the murder, right? Your comments here simply reinforce what I've been saying: the hairnet is only useful to give someone else an opportunity to take the poison without Sansa or anyone else seeing. If the plan from there is that she is going to get caught because, somehow or another, someone will connect the hairnet to the murder, then Lady Olenna's neck is on the line because of her "help" that day, which took place at the entrance to the throne room amid numerous other guests. On 2/11/2017 at 0:55 AM, SFDanny said: And the answer is why would the Lady Olenna and the Tyrells murder the king who is marrying Margaery? The answer is that Joffrey has a much better brother for Margaery to marry. As a king Tommen is much, much more likely to be controlled by his wife than the psychotic and sadistic Joffrey. But for the world it makes little sense for them to kill a king that just made a daughter of Highgarden his queen. Give the world an easy answer, and they are far less likely to dig into the shadows for conspiracies between the Tyrells snd Littlefinger. For Tywin, the smuggling of the poison in in the guise of a hairnet makes perfect sense if one wants to get it out again undetected. It is quite clever, in fact. Tyrion would not want the crystals found on him, but not everyone will recognize the hairnet for what it is. No, JS, your objections to what we know to be the murder plot make no sense whatsoever. No, he is not a much better brother. He is a little boy who won't be able to father a child on Margaery for another five years or more, during which time Margy is simply the queen-in-waiting while Cersei -- who would otherwise be shipped off to Dorne or wherever in a fortnight -- will continue as Queen Regent. You are making the mistake in thinking that Lady Olenna thinks the way a 20th century grandmother would: that all she wants is for her children and grandchildren to be safe and happy. As a sharp player in the Game of Thrones, she would actually be thinking the way a titular head of a noble house in a feudal society thinks: that the fortunes of the house trump the happiness, even the safety, of any individual family member. Both she and Margaery know that sometimes highborn ladies have to enter into unhappy, even dangerous, marriages for the good of their houses. The real goal here is not to find Margy a good husband, but to put a Tyrell on the Iron Thron, cementing the house's future to that of the realm. They get that within a year with Joffrey, but not for half a decade at least with Tommen. I will also note that the text clearly shows that Joffrey is exhibiting no hostile feelings toward Margaery at all ("Come, my lady..." He twirled her around merrily...) so there is no reason at all to think he is going to gut and filet her in the wedding bed that night. So at best, Joffrey represents a possible threat to Margy someday in the future, maybe. If and when that becomes a problem, there are plenty of ways to get rid of him and make it look like an accident. By then, of course, Margy will have produced one or more heir, the Tyrell link to the IT is secure, and Margy herself now rules as Queen Regent until her eldest son comes of age. So by killing Joff now, Lady O is trading a near certainty of an heir for House Tyrell and rolling the dice that a) an offer for Tommen will be made, and b ) either one of them will be around in five years to produce children (a very iffy prospect in a feudal society at war with itself). Plus we have the fact that the worst Joffrey has done to Sansa is a few black eyes and a bloody lip. Surely, to a woman like Lady O, who lived through the Mad King years when high lords were being roasted by wildfire, this is kids stuff, and well worth the price of the Iron Throne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trigger Warning Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 42 minutes ago, Ferocious Veldt Roarer said: Won't it look super lame, if he does? We get introduced to the strangler, dissolved in a cup of wine, in the ACOK's prologue. We got a Joffrey murder mystery in mid ASOS, and a solution in the late chapters of the same book. We get who, whom, what motive, by what means, and it all fits well enough. Case closed, filed as "solved". But, in Book 6, or Book 7, or even later, we'll get a, allegedly shocking, revelation that it wasn't so. Not at all. When the Wall has fallen, the Others are marching south, and on the other end of the continent dragons soar again over Westerosi sky, we'll be expected to be invested in new solution of this old puzzle? From which we won't even learn anything new? Because what's the lesson we'll get from the new reveal? That Littlefinger wanted to do Tyrion in (again), or that Littlefinger lies on occasion (no comment)? A shocking swerve, they call it. A plot twist that twists in the sake of twisting, yet doesn't actually bring anything new. Compared to the Tyrion theory? M'lord is jesting, of course? The only semi-interesting missing puzzle is, who exactly put the poison in the chalice. If someone exceptionally tall is required, then we have Ser Garlan, Mrs. Ser Garlan, and - I don't remember whether they were around at that moment - Left and Right, to pick from. While alternate theories are made of plot holes, some of them exposed repeatedly in this thread. Honestly if revelations like this happen in the next few books I'd start to consider GRRM a hack writer that's throwing in twists after the fact for the sake of it. Luckily I don't think it will happen because it hasn't happened in the current books, these books are meant to be read as a piece of literature not analysed in the minutest detail for what could have happened in contrast to what the evidence actually supports. If GRRM wants to throw in a twist I expect it to be relevant to the plot with some decent setup, most of PJ's theories seem to be looking for an alternative scenario and then trying to find information to piece together with a hefty glue of speculation to hold it in place. Like you said even if it did turn out that the target was Tyrion then so what? What a pointless reveal to wait nearly twenty years for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 0:07 PM, OtherFromAnotherMother said: I'm not sure I follow your reasoning here. Are you saying that because Cressen doesn't say anything about the appearance of the wine it means it wasn't changed? We don't know the color if the wine after it was poisoned. The text does not say. I don't think you can use lack of information to say it wasn't changed. We don't know. I don't think we can know which one is more or less poisoned. I would guess that Cressen's is more poisoned based on the smaller volume of wine compared to the larger volume of wine in Joff's 3 foot chalice. However, there are too many variables (amount of leaves used, amount of ash used, how long it was soaked and aged) to determine for sure which was more poisoned. With that in mInd, we have only the two instances of the Strangler being used. There are a lot of unknowns. Yet the logistics of your theory are dependent on the differences in these two poisonings. Why can't there be a slight difference in the timing between ingestion and death? People react differently to medicines. I don't see the logic in saying that because Joff took slightly longer to die after drinking the wine it means it wasn't the wine that killed him. What is your explanation for Joff's wine turning purple? Agreed, we don't know. But Cressen was looking into a normal-sized goblet in a well-lit room and he doesn't notice anything strange about the wine. On two occasions, Joffrey's wine is described as purple, then "deep purple" (and, somehow, red in between). So since it would be unreasonable to expect a super-effective, super-expensive poison that is only used for the most important victims to change the color of the wine to such a degree that it would be noticeable by the victim before he or she ingests it, I think we can assume that Joffrey's wine, at least, is vastly more poisoned than what would be considered normal. We can argue all night about the full crystal in Joffrey's significantly less-than three-quarters-full chalice vs. Cressen's "flake" in a half-full goblet, but the fact is that according to the basic laws of physiology, higher dilution of a poison like the strangler would only weaken its affect, not delay it. Let's walk through it: First, the text makes it absolutely clear that the strangler is a contact poison, not a systemic one. By that, I mean it passes through the soft tissue of the throat and goes directly to work on the muscles. It does not pass the throat, enter the stomach, pass into the bloodstream, circulate throughout the body, and then back to the throat. If it did, then it wouldn't take affect on either victim for at least a minute. So in this light, the strangler is not like arsenic or snake venom, but more like ammonia or poison ivy. So let's imagine what would happen if you were to drink a straight shot of ammonia. It would burn you instantly, and you would most likely die. If you poured the shot into a large glass of water, it would still burn you instantly, but not as badly, and the burn would extend down your throat and into your stomach. And you might even survive. If you were to place a small drop of ammonia in a glass of water, it would still burn you instantly, wherever it made contact with the skin, but the affect would be so minimal you probably wouldn't notice. But then the ammonia won't reconcentrate itself in your body to come back and burn you, in the throat no less. Now, we can say that the strangler is fictional and might not have the same properties as a real substance, or that it's magical. But the fact is that Martin only deviates from real-world situations when it is necessary to advance the plot, and you don't need imaginary or magical properties for a poison kill someone. If the poison was in the wine, it would have been a simple matter to have Joffrey drink, choke and die -- no need pad the story with a bunch of useless action and dialogue. And we are not talking about "slightly longer" here. Joffrey showed no symptoms at all for three or four times Cressen's timeline, and that's just to get to the first kof. Add another order of magnitude or two and we finally get the point where the affect is equal: "the words caught in his throat." So in the end, I contend that the text all-but rules out the wine being poisoned from a physical perspective, and when you add in the multitude of completely random and unpredictable events that led to the chalice being exactly where it needed to be at exactly the right time, and with Tyrion's hands over it moment's before, we can categorically reject the wine theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Suburbs Posted February 13, 2017 Share Posted February 13, 2017 On 2/11/2017 at 2:46 PM, Rhaenys_Targaryen said: I've wondered about the following: how did Melisandre survive? Did her magic allow her to survive the poison, or did her magic prevent her from drinking the poison? If it is the latter, and Melisandre's magic filtered all of the poison out of the wine that she drank, all poison that had been in the cup would have remained in the swallow that was left for Cressen. My suspicion is that Mel is already dead, so she is immune to poison, but probably not fire. But the idea is intriguing. It's one of the better ones I've heard to explain the discrepancy, but as is pointed out ad nauseum: no text, no proof. And as I pointed out above, higher dilution does not slow the poison, just weakens its affect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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