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Wow, I never noticed that v.16


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9 minutes ago, divica said:

I remember him talking about val not being too late and stannis sepnding 10 days at the north castle (I can t remember the name). But for both scenarios I got the idea it were good assumptions...

Deepwood Motte. And yes, he may be spot on or close to it on the timeline (there's a few things that have to be checked imo) but he may be off too. For instance, he brings up a character's comment about "Robert wouldn't take this long" and at the same time he argues that Stannis wouldn't stay that long there (meaning until the next new moon or full moon or whatever). 

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2 hours ago, bemused said:

Another hint for those who think the pink/bastard letter was edited and re-copied before it was delivered to Jon ... from ADWD, Theon chapter ...

"I see you all want blood," the Lord of the Dreadfort said. Maester Rhodry stood beside him, a raven on his arm. The bird's black plumage shone like coal oil in the torchlight. Wet, Theon realized. And in his lordship's hand, a parchmentThat will be wet as well.

If Arnolf's message to Roose was wet, the parchment given to Jon certainly should have been and should have been one of the things immediately noticeable about it. Travelling much farther, it should have been pretty sodden, but no-one present comments on it and Jon doesn't even think of it.

I must have read past that tid-bit a gazillion times without noticing, though I subscribe to the editing theory for plenty of other reasons. 

I can't think why GRRM would have Theon take note of it, except for comparison, later. It doesn't make a whit of difference to Theon's storyline, but can be very relevant to Jon's.

Not saying you're wrong, but the way I read that is simply to show the reader that the raven and the letter just arrived. 

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Oh, PJ,,, (sigh)..

Kudos for attempting to track the moon so closely, but there's still wiggle room, and the assumptions get in the way.

e.g.. Tycho was at the wall when Alys arrived but would have been long gone by the time of the wedding and Val's arrival. And for me (Har!), assuming the letter must have been sent from WF is premature. The smarter white raven speculation is bizarre, considering he completely ignores that Arnolf's apparent WF ravens begin to behave just like Mormont's raven, and might be guided by Bran and Bloodraven ...

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31 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

Deepwood Motte. And yes, he may be spot on or close to it on the timeline (there's a few things that have to be checked imo) but he may be off too. For instance, he brings up a character's comment about "Robert wouldn't take this long" and at the same time he argues that Stannis wouldn't stay that long there (meaning until the next new moon or full moon or whatever). 

I was listening again. And believing he is quoting right there are basically 2 things that define the timeline.

Val's return and stannis leaving deepwood Motte because the rest is identified in the text. We know for sure that stannis leaves deepwood motte between day 17 and 24 (Jon receives a report from stannis on 

18 and on the 25 roose knows stannis has left deepwood). It would be needed to read the wedding chapter to get a better idea if stannis left closer to 24 or 17...

In regards to val, as Jon doesn t think about her being late (acording to the vídeo) I believe that she is either on time or very close (I am ignoring the part about the wedding being on the full moon to please the god of light lol).

Next, If jon was indeed planing to go to hardhome (not sure) there must be little time between jon XII and jon XIII.

Another thing I think he forgets to talk about in the vídeo. If theon and fArya escape on day 73 then jon XII should happen after day 90 (instead of 69) because they would need close to 20 days to go between winterfell and castle black. So ramsay would need to be insane to send the PL before fArya and theon can get to jon.

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3 minutes ago, divica said:

I was listening again. And believing he is quoting right there are basically 2 things that define the timeline.

Val's return and stannis leaving deepwood Motte because the rest is identified in the text. We know for sure that stannis leaves deepwood motte between day 17 and 24 (Jon receives a report from stannis on 

18 and on the 25 roose knows stannis has left deepwood). It would be needed to read the wedding chapter to get a better idea if stannis left closer to 24 or 17...

In regards to val, as Jon doesn t think about her being late (acording to the vídeo) I believe that she is either on time or very close (I am ignoring the part about the wedding being on the full moon to please the god of light lol).

Next, If jon was indeed planing to go to hardhome (not sure) there must be little time between jon XII and jon XIII.

Another thing I think he forgets to talk about in the vídeo. If theon and fArya escape on day 73 then jon XII should happen after day 90 (instead of 69) because they would need close to 20 days to go between winterfell and castle black. So ramsay would need to be insane to send the PL before fArya and theon can get to jon.

I’m still out and haven’t been able to watch the video yet, but yeah, Val was not late. Jon even mentions how she succeeds where Bulwer and the other rangers failed. 

*** no, I do not think this makes Val a secret Other as I have recently seen proposed:P

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3 minutes ago, divica said:

I was listening again. And believing he is quoting right there are basically 2 things that define the timeline.

Val's return and stannis leaving deepwood Motte because the rest is identified in the text. We know for sure that stannis leaves deepwood motte between day 17 and 24 (Jon receives a report from stannis on 

18 and on the 25 roose knows stannis has left deepwood). It would be needed to read the wedding chapter to get a better idea if stannis left closer to 24 or 17...

In regards to val, as Jon doesn t think about her being late (acording to the vídeo) I believe that she is either on time or very close (I am ignoring the part about the wedding being on the full moon to please the god of light lol).

Next, If jon was indeed planing to go to hardhome (not sure) there must be little time between jon XII and jon XIII.

Another thing I think he forgets to talk about in the vídeo. If theon and fArya escape on day 73 then jon XII should happen after day 90 (instead of 69) because they would need close to 20 days to go between winterfell and castle black. So ramsay would need to be insane to send the PL before fArya and theon can get to jon.

Well, he is! :P

Joking aside, yeah good points. I was thinking about the wedding chapter too... I don't remember anything relating to the timeline being mentioned in that chapter actually. Time to listen to it again!

(where did he go w/ the white raven thing? lol)

 

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19 minutes ago, bemused said:

Oh, PJ,,, (sigh)..

Kudos for attempting to track the moon so closely, but there's still wiggle room, and the assumptions get in the way.

e.g.. Tycho was at the wall when Alys arrived but would have been long gone by the time of the wedding and Val's arrival. And for me (Har!), assuming the letter must have been sent from WF is premature. The smarter white raven speculation is bizarre, considering he completely ignores that Arnolf's apparent WF ravens begin to behave just like Mormont's raven, and might be guided by Bran and Bloodraven ...

Aah. Ravenry is included in this video. Now I am super curious to watch it. 

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17 minutes ago, bemused said:

Oh, PJ,,, (sigh)..

Kudos for attempting to track the moon so closely, but there's still wiggle room, and the assumptions get in the way.

e.g.. Tycho was at the wall when Alys arrived but would have been long gone by the time of the wedding and Val's arrival. And for me (Har!), assuming the letter must have been sent from WF is premature. The smarter white raven speculation is bizarre, considering he completely ignores that Arnolf's apparent WF ravens begin to behave just like Mormont's raven, and might be guided by Bran and Bloodraven ...

Acording to the vídeo there are 18 days between alys/tycho arriving and alys wedding. It is enough time for tycho to arrive at the Wall on the same day as her and be long gone when she marries.

The raven you are talking about isn t the one in the Theon chapter? I think it is believed they are trying to interfere with theon's fate so there isn t really a reson for us to assume that the ravens of winterfell are also being controled...

But yes, the white raven and marrying on a full moon to please the god of light are crap theories.

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10 hours ago, Lost Melnibonean said:

Not saying you're wrong, but the way I read that is simply to show the reader that the raven and the letter just arrived.

Yes, it does that.. but it's hardly necessary for the reader to be told the letter would be wet as well as the raven. The reader knows those in WF have been speculating about exactly where Stannis was .. their scouts had not been returning... then many assume he's close outside the gates when the horns and drums begin, and so on. So when Theon sees Rhodry, bird on arm and Roose, letter in hand, suddenly announcing Stannis' location, we know the message has just arrived, anyway.

Just as Rhodry dutifully delivers the letter even in the midst of mayhem, Clydas has previously been very prompt in delivering letters to Jon - at the practice yard, during Alys' wedding feast, etc. ...

 All of this makes me think it's intended to be a clue.

9 hours ago, divica said:
10 hours ago, bemused said:

 <snip>

Acording to the vídeo there are 18 days between alys/tycho arriving and alys wedding. It is enough time for tycho to arrive at the Wall on the same day as her and be long gone when she marries.

The raven you are talking about isn t the one in the Theon chapter? I think it is believed they are trying to interfere with theon's fate so there isn t really a reson for us to assume that the ravens of winterfell are also being controled...

Perhaps I need to watch again I thought PJ had Tycho at the wall or just leaving at the time of the wedding ..

With the ravens, we come up against my assumptions/predictions ;) .. which differ from his.

Yes, I am talking about Arnolf's WF ravens in the new Theon chapter.

In WF, it appears that Bran is able to reach Theon to an extent and in WF are many ravens, some Luwin's birds and some wild ones. I'd suggest there may even be some of the CotF ravens among the wild ones (in other words, easily inhabitable). Through the tree, Bran will have witnessed Theon and the spearwives discussing the escape plan. A raven (or two) could follow Theon and Jeyne as we've seen them follow other characters.

In ADWD, The Sacrifice , Asha emerges from the dining hall to see a raven pecking at one of the burned corpses.Then Tycho, Theon et al arrive. Then we move on to the Theon chapter with Arnolf's ravens demanding with Asha that Theon be taken to the tree.

I've come to think that Stannis will have changed his mind and sent Theon with Tycho and Jeyne... and that somehow he'll become convinced that those ravens can fly to Castle Black. I think Theon will be proved right and that Ramsay will arrive, only to follow on Theon and Jeyne's trail. Then (supposedly dead) Stannis will try to write to Jon (purporting to be Ramsay) to warn Jon that Ramsay is on his way using one of the ravens.

This letter would arrive wet, as would any letter written by Mance or Ramsay.

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On 09/12/2017 at 10:38 AM, Pukisbaisals said:

Plum is dark purple. Just another hint of Strangler color or something more?

A plum is also a prize - getting yourself a 'plum job' is getting a job that is extremely rewarding.

On 15/12/2017 at 1:11 AM, Seams said:

I wonder what it means that Cersei remembered the inn as being on Weasel Alley, while Jaime remembers (correctly, apparently) that it is located on Eel Alley?

'Under the sea' birds have scales instead of feathers - likely enough the furred creatures appear fish-like and the eel is the Patchface equivalent of a weasel.

The Hour of the Eel is quite late in the night I think. It's a possibility that characters who can see eels will still be around far into the Long Night. Doesn't look like Cersei's going to make it that far.

On 15/12/2017 at 1:11 AM, Seams said:

Or is the Catelyn / Littlefinger story similar to the Jaime / Cersei story in that one of each pair is being seduced and led into serving the other person's agenda?

Weasels are pretty devious and dangerous creatures - Arya, Kyra. So are eels - Manderley loves eating eels, so does Littlefinger.

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The night the bird had come from Winterfell, Eddard Stark had taken the girls to the castle godswood, an acre of elm and alder and black cottonwood overlooking the river. The heart tree there was a great oak, its ancient limbs overgrown with smokeberry vines; they knelt before it to offer their thanksgiving, as if it had been a weirwood. Sansa drifted to sleep as the moon rose, Arya several hours later, curling up in the grass under Ned's cloak. All through the dark hours he kept his vigil alone. When dawn broke over the city, the dark red blooms of dragon's breath surrounded the girls where they lay. "I dreamed of Bran," Sansa had whispered to him. "I saw him smiling."

The godswood in King's Landing is marked by black cottonwood and alder, a tree with a gray, almost white, bark. The heart tree is is overgrown with smokeberries. Berries are often red, and smokeberries in ASOIAF are used to make wine, further suggesting that the berries are red. Bloodraven often wore smoke and scarlet, and his arms bore a white dragon on a black field. And to tie it up with a bow, Bloodraven's dragon was depicted breath scarlet flame... like the dark red blooms of dragon's breath

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The distinction between a mummer and a faceless man is not so sharp...

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The evening meal was almost done by the time he and Ghost reached the common hall. A group of the black brothers were dicing over mulled wine near the fire. His friends were at the bench nearest the west wall laughing. Pyp was in the middle of a story. The mummer's boy with the big ears was a born liar with a hundred different voices, and he did not tell his tales so much as live them, playing all the parts as needed, a king one moment and a swineherd the next. When he turned into an alehouse girl or a princess, he used a high falsetto voice that reduced them all to tears of helpless laughter, and his eunuchs were always eerily accurate caricatures of Ser Alliser.

Jon IV, Game 26

In the Army, we called this a blanket party and/or policing our own ranks...

Quote

"You girls do as you please," Rast said, "but if Thorne sends me against Lady Piggy, I'm going to slice me off a rasher of bacon." He laughed in Jon's face and left them there.

Hours later, as the castle slept, three of them paid a call on his cell. Grenn held his arms while Pypsat on his legs. Jon could hear Rast's rapid breathing as Ghost leapt onto his chest. The direwolf's eyes burned red as embers as his teeth nipped lightly at the soft skin of the boy's throat, just enough to draw blood. "Remember, we know where you sleep," Jon said softly.

The next morning Jon heard Rast tell Abett and Toad how his razor had slipped while he shaved.

Jon Iv, Game 26

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In Part II of the OP here, I pointed to an old thread that showed an association between Petyr and rabbits. (Get it? Petyr rabbit? Don't worry, there's more to it than that.) With that in mind, I just noticed this...

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Jory draped Ned's cloak across his shoulders and clasped it at the throat with the Hand's badge of office. "The armorer lives above his shop, in a large house at the top of the Street of Steel. Alynknows the way, my lord."

Ned nodded. "The gods help this potboy if he's sent me off haring after shadows."

Eddard VI, Game 27

Petyr, of course, is the one who has set Eddard to haring. 

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I would not expect, but I would not be surprised, to see Gendry riding a dragon...

Quote

"The boy," Ned echoed. He had no notion who the boy might be. "I should like to see the boy as well."

Tobho Mott gave him a cool, careful look. "As you wish, my lord," he said with no trace of his former friendliness. He led Ned out a rear door and across a narrow yard, back to the cavernous stone barn where the work was done. When the armorer opened the door, the blast of hot air that came through made Ned feel as though he were walking into a dragon's mouth. Inside, a forge blazed in each corner, and the air stank of smoke and sulfur.

Eddard VI, Game 27

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I've been going through MMD's ritual in the tent in Dany VIII, Game 64 and I don't know if this has ever been pointed out, but Dany's descriptions of the shadows and dancers is reminiscent of what Patchface says. I don't have the quotes in hand at the moment. The book is in the other room and I'm not getting up.

The last sentence, though, I had never really paid attention to. 

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But it's this part that kind of made me jump. It could be foreshadowing for Jon himself.
No, Dany wanted to say, no, not that, you mustn't, but when she opened her mouth, a long wail of pain escaped, and the sweat broke over her skin. What was wrong with them, couldn't they see? Inside the tent the shapes were dancing, circling the brazier and the bloody bath, dark against the sandsilk, and some did not look human. She glimpsed the shadow of a great wolf, and another like a man wreathed in flames. (Dany VIII, Game 64)

A great wolf and a man wreathed in flames. And my mind goes straight to Jon and what happened to him at the end of ADWD.

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7 minutes ago, Widow's Watch said:

I've been going through MMD's ritual in the tent in Dany VIII, Game 64 and I don't know if this has ever been pointed out, but Dany's descriptions of the shadows and dancers is reminiscent of what Patchface says. I don't have the quotes in hand at the moment. The book is in the other room and I'm not getting up.

The last sentence, though, I had never really paid attention to. 

A great wolf and a man wreathed in flames. And my mind goes straight to Jon and what happened to him at the end of ADWD.

Very interesting.

I think the first relation you should make is that jon (the great wolf) burns a wigth with flames (like a man wreathed in flames).

However we would need more context in order to know if it makes sense for danny to see this.

Because your interpretation also Works, but it depends on what makes more sense for danny to see at that moment.

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4 minutes ago, divica said:

I think the first relation you should make is that jon (the great wolf) burns a wigth with flames (like a man wreathed in flames).

Dany sees two separate things. She sees the great wolf and then the man surrounded with flames.

If anything, I think this is a snap shot of what we will be getting at the Wall with Jon and Mel.

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