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Westeros Experts League 2018

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Have a trade here too.

I get Julio Jones. Dunk gets Spencer Ware and Corey Davis.

I think Ware is probably going to be a high end RB2 or even an RB1, but made sense to upgrade at my starting lineup at WR.

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Ok, we came into Sunday with everything riding on Dracarys vs. Mya. Dracarys put up another monster score and has risen like a phoenix to apparently claim a playoff spot. Now going into SNF and MNF looks like everything is riding on Jace vs. Mudguard.

It looks quite likely Bronn will lose to me. Although he does have an oh so slim chance at pulling it out if Juju + 16.64 points can outscore Wentz, Conner, Adams and BoswelL If so, all of the below analysis is moot and things really get crazy. Will re-evaluate Bronn's chances after Pitt-SD tonight. But that's a big longshot so on the assumption he does indeed come up short, here's where things stand:

Byes: WJ (1), Mya (2)
Playoffs: Jaime (3) (likely), BL (4) or (5), Dracarys (5) or (6) (likely),
Playoffs or saved by power rankings: Dunk
Playoffs or Jaxomed: Mudguard 
Saved by power rankings or Jaxomed: Jace
Jaxomed: Bronn (likely), Week 

Jace vs. Mudguard - Mudguard has Vance McDonald + 4.86 points vs. Jace's Corey Clement and Chargers D.

Yahoo has this very nearly as a perfect pick 'em. Very dramatic late afternoon games where Jace came from way behind to take the advantage off a big Kelce day. Things looked grim for Mudguard until a crazy 100 yard pick six super late in the game by Seattle D launched him right back into it. 

If Jace wins:

Jaime (3) vs. Dunk (6), BL (4) vs. Drac (5). Jace is safe on power rankings due to currently being tied with Mudguard and Bronn and outscoring both in week 13. Mudguard gets Jaxomed.

If Mudguard wins:

Jaime (3) vs. Drac (6), Mudguard (4) vs. BL (5). Dunk is safe on power rankings. Jace is Jaxomed.

A ton riding on these last two games of week 13. 

 

Edited by Jaime L

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So.....looks like a ton rests on Mudguard vs Jace now.

Can probably assume that Dunk will beat Week, Jaime will beat Bronn, and Dracarys will beat Mya.

That means Dracarys is in the playoffs and Bronn is out. 

The last playoff team will be either Mudguard or Dunk.

If Mudguard wins against Jace:
-Playoffs are (1) WJ, (2) Mya, (3) Jaime, (4/5) BL, (5/4) Mudguard, (6) Dracarys
-Bottom 4 are Dunk, Bronn, Jace, Week
---Dunk is probably safe, but Jace has a small chance to survive
---Jace, Bronn, Week are probably the 3 Jaxomed teams (with a small chance of Dunk instead of Jace)

If Jace beats Mudguard:
-Playoffs are (1) WJ, (2) Mya, (3) Jaime, (4) BL, (5) Dracarys, (6) Dunk
-Bottom 4 are Mudguard, Bronn, Jace, Week
---Jace is safe
---Mudguard, Bronn, Week are the 3 Jaxomed teams

Looking at the Mudguard vs Jace matchup, its:
Mudguard:  Vance McDonald + 4.84 pts
Jace:  Corey Clement + LA Chargers DEF

Going to be close.

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Yeah, if the other matches hold, which seems likely, the last spot is going to come down to Jace and me.  Amazingly, everything fell right for Jace and she can save herself from Jaxoming by beating me, which would mean that I'd be Jaxomed.  Thought I was a goner until that late pick and TD by Seattle.  Still alive...

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7 minutes ago, Jaime L said:

Jace vs. Mudguard - Mudguard has Vance McDonald + 4.86 points vs. Jace's Corey Clement and Chargers D.

 

I claim victory over the accountant who can't subtract.  :ph34r:

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2 minutes ago, Mudguard said:

Yeah, if the other matches hold, which seems likely, the last spot is going to come down to Jace and me.  Amazingly, everything fell right for Jace and she can save herself from Jaxoming by beating me, which would mean that I'd be Jaxomed.  Thought I was a goner until that late pick and TD by Seattle.  Still alive...

Yeah, same here.  Jaime and I were talking about how you were in trouble, and then that pick 6 changed everything.  Total tossup now.

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1 minute ago, Whiskeyjack said:

I claim victory over the accountant who can't subtract.  :ph34r:

Pssh, don't you lawyers have materiality thresholds?

 

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Things are pretty simplified now.

If Corey Clement scores 5.64 points or fewer
Mudguard beats Jace
Byes:  WJ (1), Mya (2)
Jaime (3) vs Dracarys (6)
Mudguard (4) vs BL (5)
Out of the playoffs but still in the league:  Dunk
Jaxomed:  Jace, Bronn, Week

If Corey Clement scores more than 5.64 points
Jace beats Mudguard
Byes:  WJ (1), Mya (2)
Jaime (3) vs Dunk (6)
BL (4) vs Dracarys (5)
Out of the playoffs but still in the league:  Jace
Jaxomed:  Mudguard, Bronn, Week

Out of Mudguard/Jace/Dunk, Dunk is probably sitting in the best spot right now, since he's either in the playoffs or out of the playoffs but safe regardless.  For Mudguard and Jace, meanwhile, staying in the league rests on what Corey Clement does in tomorrow night's game.

Edited by Whiskeyjack

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Well, that pretty much sucked.  I had a good day in every Westeros league save the one that mattes most.  But still on track to win out in Dynasty, Survivor, Thunderdome and Keeper.  Winning the division in Thunderdome will require 9.38 or more points from Zach Ertz.

Put myself on the bubble in a money league by making a wrong last-minute change 20 minutes before kickoff for the morning games.  Put in TY Hilton for Corey Davis and 3.70 points made the difference - I lost by 3.05.  That league has weird tie-breakers which is a bummer since I'm ahead of almost all of the competitors in total points by a good margin.

 

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2 hours ago, Bronn Stone said:

Well, that pretty much sucked.  I had a good day in every Westeros league save the one that mattes most.  But still on track to win out in Dynasty, Survivor, Thunderdome and Keeper.  Winning the division in Thunderdome will require 9.38 or more points from Zach Ertz.

Put myself on the bubble in a money league by making a wrong last-minute change 20 minutes before kickoff for the morning games.  Put in TY Hilton for Corey Davis and 3.70 points made the difference - I lost by 3.05.  That league has weird tie-breakers which is a bummer since I'm ahead of almost all of the competitors in total points by a good margin.

 

Sorry for knocking you out Bronn.

You do have the opportunity for some revenge tonight if Ertz gets that 9.38 points because then you steal my bye. 

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1 minute ago, Jaime L said:

Sorry for knocking you out Bronn.

You do have the opportunity for some revenge tonight if Ertz gets that 9.38 points because then you steal my bye. 

Go "annoying TE from Stanfurd"......

(in another league I face one of my favorite bartenders, and she is a fan of Stanford and knows I'm a Cal guy - to beat me she needs 12.4 from Ertz - but that league is 1/2 pt. PPR, so about the same score I need to win.).

And you can't blame anyone but yourself when your week 13 score earns a 0-9 power ranking. 

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35 minutes ago, Jace, Basilissa said:

Good god, Corey Clement! Deliver me!

I picked this motherfucker up on waivers three days ago.

I must admit I’m glad you started Clement over Gore. Not sure what the odds are of not being Jaxomed despite missing the playoffs two years in a row are, but it would be nice to at least participate, even if it is short lived.

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This may be a moot point if Jace beats Mudguard, but, what would happen if Jace loses, but scores enough points to exceed both Mya  or Jamie and me in power rankings. I currently have a two game lead but that would force us into a tie in overall rankings I believe. Would the tiebreaker be total points for the season or head to head. In both instances I think I would prevail by virtue of my 0.8 pt vicorty over her in week 6 due to the Alfred Morris disappearing act.  Just curious if this has ever occurred before.

Edited by Dunknegg

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