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divica

Stannis army losses and future battles

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So stannis sailed to the Wall with at most 1500 men. 

He fought against a huge army so he had some losses...

We can say that he didn t have losses at deepwood motte...

However during the march stannis losses were huge! So that people have an idea on the 19th day on the vilage the cold count was EIGHTY! 80!!!

And we are garanteed at least more 1 night with similar conditions (the night in theon's TWoW sample chapter)...

In addition stannis started with 800 horses so lets say he had 700 knights?

then when stannis says to justin massey:

Quote

Your place is where I say it is. I have five hundred swords as good as you, or better, but you have a pleasing manner and a glib tongue

Does it mean he has 500 knights? So he lost close to 200 knights? And as common soldiers suffered worse than knights at least 300 or 400 common soldiers?

So a total of 500 or 600 Southern soldiers died since stannis got to the Wall? If we take into account that close to 150 men probably died because of the cold in the last 2 nights isn t it a low number? Anyway, is it safe to assume that stannis has between 900 and 1000 Southern soldiers and lost nearly a third of his army on the march?

If we think that the freys will need more 1 or 2 nights to arrive, even if the weather gets better and the cold count isn t 80 every night it will be pretty high for some nights because the soldiers are already sick... 

So if we include the battle with the freys is it safe to assume that stannis Southern army is broken or he still has enough soldiers?

Then there is the division within his army. If we read the 2 asha chapters together then the northem, queensmen and even kingsmen are nearly starting to fight between themselves. With low food, arya's rescue and stannis personal army diminishing and starting to give more troubles to the northerns than help is it possible that some clansmen/northmen will leave? will theon's fate be important in this friction?

In regards to the battle. I was thinking that after mors umber traps hosteen would need to be mentally dead to attack a position that stannis has been defending for days. Or is it possible that he thinks stannis will be unprepared? 

Is it more likely that after mors stratagems hosteen will be more carefull and try to force stannis to march against him or starve or that hosteen will simply attack?

Edited by divica

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I'd guess he has 500-800 southerners left. Whatever it is or however optimistic/pessimistic you want to be, it'd be fairly low. 

I don't think the friction will come to anything. The king and queen's men are committed to Stannis, and the northmen are committed to revenge against the Boltons. Besides, the whole situation reminds me of the situation leading up to the battle of Pharsalus between Caesar and Pompey. Like Caesar's men, those in Stannis' camp basically have no option but to fight or die. Even if the snows allowed it, they don't have the supplies to retreat. News that the Freys are finally riding out to fight should galvanise them. 

I think Hoster will attack. He was explicitly ordered by Roose to attack Stannis, and he'll also be enraged with Aenys having being killed. As far as he knows, Stannis is floundering in the snow with a starving army (as per the report sent to Roose by the Dreadfort maester). He doesn't know that Stannis is hoping for an attack (possibly no one but Stannis is aware of that).

 

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