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Stannis army losses and future battles

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So stannis sailed to the Wall with at most 1500 men. 

He fought against a huge army so he had some losses...

We can say that he didn t have losses at deepwood motte...

However during the march stannis losses were huge! So that people have an idea on the 19th day on the vilage the cold count was EIGHTY! 80!!!

And we are garanteed at least more 1 night with similar conditions (the night in theon's TWoW sample chapter)...

In addition stannis started with 800 horses so lets say he had 700 knights?

then when stannis says to justin massey:

Quote

Your place is where I say it is. I have five hundred swords as good as you, or better, but you have a pleasing manner and a glib tongue

Does it mean he has 500 knights? So he lost close to 200 knights? And as common soldiers suffered worse than knights at least 300 or 400 common soldiers?

So a total of 500 or 600 Southern soldiers died since stannis got to the Wall? If we take into account that close to 150 men probably died because of the cold in the last 2 nights isn t it a low number? Anyway, is it safe to assume that stannis has between 900 and 1000 Southern soldiers and lost nearly a third of his army on the march?

If we think that the freys will need more 1 or 2 nights to arrive, even if the weather gets better and the cold count isn t 80 every night it will be pretty high for some nights because the soldiers are already sick... 

So if we include the battle with the freys is it safe to assume that stannis Southern army is broken or he still has enough soldiers?

Then there is the division within his army. If we read the 2 asha chapters together then the northem, queensmen and even kingsmen are nearly starting to fight between themselves. With low food, arya's rescue and stannis personal army diminishing and starting to give more troubles to the northerns than help is it possible that some clansmen/northmen will leave? will theon's fate be important in this friction?

In regards to the battle. I was thinking that after mors umber traps hosteen would need to be mentally dead to attack a position that stannis has been defending for days. Or is it possible that he thinks stannis will be unprepared? 

Is it more likely that after mors stratagems hosteen will be more carefull and try to force stannis to march against him or starve or that hosteen will simply attack?

Edited by divica

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I'd guess he has 500-800 southerners left. Whatever it is or however optimistic/pessimistic you want to be, it'd be fairly low. 

I don't think the friction will come to anything. The king and queen's men are committed to Stannis, and the northmen are committed to revenge against the Boltons. Besides, the whole situation reminds me of the situation leading up to the battle of Pharsalus between Caesar and Pompey. Like Caesar's men, those in Stannis' camp basically have no option but to fight or die. Even if the snows allowed it, they don't have the supplies to retreat. News that the Freys are finally riding out to fight should galvanise them. 

I think Hoster will attack. He was explicitly ordered by Roose to attack Stannis, and he'll also be enraged with Aenys having being killed. As far as he knows, Stannis is floundering in the snow with a starving army (as per the report sent to Roose by the Dreadfort maester). He doesn't know that Stannis is hoping for an attack (possibly no one but Stannis is aware of that).

 

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On 2/4/2018 at 8:23 PM, divica said:

So stannis sailed to the Wall with at most 1500 men. 

 

I was under the impression he sailed from Dragonstone with roughly ~3,000 men,  does anyone remember how many he left with or is 1,500 a solid confirmation?

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The Dreadfort maester sent a map of Stannis' loaction to Roose Bolton. Now knowing his location Roose sends the Frey and Manderly forces to deal with Stannis. The problem is that the Freys don't know the Northern lands very well, and they are about to run out onto a frozen lake with holes dug into it, which is going to take out most of the Frey soldiers. The few that make it across the ice will get taken out by Stannis' men, and the ones that retreat will get taken out by the Manderlys, who would have known about the frozen lake and probably let the Freys go ahead of them. Now with the Freys defeated Stannis needs to get inside Winterfell. 

Now I have no idea who wrote the Pink Letter, but lets just say it actually was Ramsay in this instance. Maybe Stannis fakes his death, dresses his men up in the clothes of the dead Freys, and House Manderly and 'Frey' forces arrive back at Winterfell victorious. Stannis could have even told his men to hand over 'Lightbringer' to prove his death. Ramsay, being the type of person he is, cant help but feel the need to gloat Stannis' loss in Jon Snow's face, so he writes a letter and sends it to the Wall. Shortly after this Stannis reveals himself, and all the Northerners in Winterfell turn on the Boltons and their allies. 

Obviously I don't think this is 100% how it will go down, but I feel like Stannis has to win this battle for the story to progress. 

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All the info we have been given about various folks sneaking in and out of Winterfell makes me think that something will happen in Stannis' favor - a sneak attack on Ramsay would not take many people to be successful if done right. Stannis' losses have to be to make us think he is going to lose.

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On 9/6/2018 at 11:48 PM, Legitimate_Bastard said:

 Stannis' losses have to be to make us think he is going to lose.

I question the severity of Stannis's 'losses' , All throughout ADwD after he takes Deepwood Motte, the march on Winterfell was portrayed narratively as going from bad to worse, reaching dire levels in Northern Winter.

 

It got to the point where  people were dying of starvation which lead to eating all the Southron horses, and eventual cannibalism. This was due to Stannis being niggardly with the food reserves because he knew they needed to preserve resources if they were going to survive the snows.

 

Any stragglers got left behind the baggage train to die in the snow if they couldn't keep up.. men froze to death in their sleep, that's my vague recollection of the latter part of the March on Winterfell.

 

He got a few thousand men from the mountain clans, which are mounted forces. I see the Karstark men-at-arms being forced loyal for him now Arnolf and his sons will be executed  (burnt alive most likely) , and knowing Stannis he'll put Karstarks fighters in the middle of the front-lines to die or prove themselves. Then he has his bulwark battle hardened Southerners, a good amount of these guys are knights & are well armoured due to Stannis taking from the Nights Watch arsenal (correct me if this did not happen?)

 

Stannis should all up have roughly ~ 5,000 men with him, amended counting the losses and the force the Karstarks bring to him. I recall him sorely needing archers, he tells Massey so when he sends him off to acquire his sellswords. Don't think archers will play much role in the Battle of Ice as you bloody well can't see anything at all in those weather conditions.

 

Take that alongside Manderly coming over to him before, during or after the slaughter  battle with the Freys, his holes being dug out in the lake(s?) between the crofters village & a potential fulfilling of the Night Lamp theory, I see his star rising in Winds.

 

 

And, conveniently ,having ironborn hostages Stannis could lay plans (or already has them) to take Winterfell in a similar fashion to how Theon was able to back in Clash. A good portion of the houses under the thumb of Roose in Winterfell would turn on Bolton once they see how things are about to go down.

I think i've said it before, but I do see him as being the first line of defence against the Others. He knows where the real war is, and once he hears of the chaos at the Wall and Jon's death i think he will consolidate and head back to his power-base at the Nightfort where he will restore order to the Watch and may put them under bondage like the Night King of old.  Alongside being bank-rolled by the Iron Bank,  theres a ton of food supplies at Wall and Jon ordered a Winters worth of provisions from the Braavosi by selling off everything they had of value, and some.

 

Stannis will probably kill Melisandre when he gets back to the Wall once he finds out she burnt Shireen to resurrect Jon. Winds is going to be a hell of a ride.

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All the factions of Westeros will have lost tons of fighters by the end. The final battle royale for the Iron Throne will consist of a dozen old women and children facing off against another dozen women and children with sticks and stones. Daenerys will have to ride a flightless emu into battle. And then the Others will invade.

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1 hour ago, Talking Hodor said:

All the factions of Westeros will have lost tons of fighters by the end. The final battle royale for the Iron Throne will consist of a dozen old women and children facing off against another dozen women and children with sticks and stones. Daenerys will have to ride a flightless emu into battle. And then the Others will invade.

Have you seen the feet on those emus? Reminiscent of a velociraptor or something... 

On 9/9/2018 at 3:07 AM, lrresistable said:

And, conveniently ,having ironborn hostages Stannis could lay plans (or already has them) to take Winterfell in a similar fashion to how Theon was able to back in Clash. A good portion of the houses under the thumb of Roose in Winterfell would turn on Bolton once they see how things are about to go down.

I could see it going down this way also. Either this or a secret way in is my guess.

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On ‎9‎/‎9‎/‎2018 at 8:07 AM, lrresistable said:

I question the severity of Stannis's 'losses' , All throughout ADwD after he takes Deepwood Motte, the march on Winterfell was portrayed narratively as going from bad to worse, reaching dire levels in Northern Winter.

 

It got to the point where  people were dying of starvation which lead to eating all the Southron horses, and eventual cannibalism. This was due to Stannis being niggardly with the food reserves because he knew they needed to preserve resources if they were going to survive the snows.

 

Any stragglers got left behind the baggage train to die in the snow if they couldn't keep up.. men froze to death in their sleep, that's my vague recollection of the latter part of the March on Winterfell.

 

He got a few thousand men from the mountain clans, which are mounted forces. I see the Karstark men-at-arms being forced loyal for him now Arnolf and his sons will be executed  (burnt alive most likely) , and knowing Stannis he'll put Karstarks fighters in the middle of the front-lines to die or prove themselves. Then he has his bulwark battle hardened Southerners, a good amount of these guys are knights & are well armoured due to Stannis taking from the Nights Watch arsenal (correct me if this did not happen?)

 

Stannis should all up have roughly ~ 5,000 men with him, amended counting the losses and the force the Karstarks bring to him. I recall him sorely needing archers, he tells Massey so when he sends him off to acquire his sellswords. Don't think archers will play much role in the Battle of Ice as you bloody well can't see anything at all in those weather conditions.

 

Take that alongside Manderly coming over to him before, during or after the slaughter  battle with the Freys, his holes being dug out in the lake(s?) between the crofters village & a potential fulfilling of the Night Lamp theory, I see his star rising in Winds.

 

 

And, conveniently ,having ironborn hostages Stannis could lay plans (or already has them) to take Winterfell in a similar fashion to how Theon was able to back in Clash. A good portion of the houses under the thumb of Roose in Winterfell would turn on Bolton once they see how things are about to go down.

I think i've said it before, but I do see him as being the first line of defence against the Others. He knows where the real war is, and once he hears of the chaos at the Wall and Jon's death i think he will consolidate and head back to his power-base at the Nightfort where he will restore order to the Watch and may put them under bondage like the Night King of old.  Alongside being bank-rolled by the Iron Bank,  theres a ton of food supplies at Wall and Jon ordered a Winters worth of provisions from the Braavosi by selling off everything they had of value, and some.

 

Stannis will probably kill Melisandre when he gets back to the Wall once he finds out she burnt Shireen to resurrect Jon. Winds is going to be a hell of a ride.

Stannis has a huge problem. His loyal southerners have had so many casualities that by the time he arrives at winterfell he will become irrelevant (assuming that for the next months he won t have sellswords from essos). 

And one of the things we are told (by lots of people in diferent instances) and shown during the march is that nobody likes stannis. And the northerners don t seem to be na exception. 

So when manderly arrives promising the return of rickon and some strategy to retake winterfell which northern would follow stannis? Who would want to fight for stannis when there is a stark coming supported by some major northern houses? 

Wether it is sooner or later stannis will have to return to the Wall and wait for his sellswords to arrive. I think the frey battle will be the means to give horses and food to stannis so that he can take his southerners back to the Wall. It is what makes more sense for him and the best way to progresso his story. It would even be a great epilogue if we have his pov while he dies defending the Wall from the others...

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Stannis has approx 500 - 700 swords left, meaning he is outnumbered by the Karstarks, Manderly's, Umbers and Boltons, of which only the Manderlys are a certainty for betraying the Boltons, since we easily can have both Umber sides fighting eachother. 

However, we also have too take into account other factors: Alys Karstark and the Thenns have set out too reclaim Karhold. If they succeed, this pulls away the Karstarks from the battlefield. Alys and the Thenns can decide too aid Stannis in his struggle and attack the Dreadfort. 

Then we have too take into account the possibility that Davos finds Rickon and Osha in Skagos and the Skagosi side with Davos and Rickon and set out too aid Stannis or reclaim Winterfell. The Skagosi then are the relief force or surprise attack the Karstarks if Alys has succeed. 

Then we have too take into account that the Cranogmen are the only complete army in the North, since they didn't went with Robb too the South, possibly on Robbs own orders. Lady Stoneheart is in the Neck and she will surely seek Howland Reeds aid, so its a possibility Howland and the Cranogmen raid the Bolton supply line or are gonna attack Winterfell in the back. 

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On 9/1/2018 at 7:38 PM, EloImFizzy said:

[snip]

 I feel like Stannis has to win this battle for the story to progress. 

I have heard of the scenario you are describing and think it is well thought out. Especially the thing about the holes in the ice and the night lamp theory.

The problem I have is my feeling is exactly opposite to yours: I feel like Stannis has to lose the battle for the story to progress.

I don't know how Stannis can lose against the Frey's if they are obliging enough to come to him. When all they would have needed to do was stay put and let him starve and freeze to death.

But if Stannis wins then he stays in the story. And that's a problem since we all suspect Jon needs to take the place of northern leader at some point. Stannis needs to go in order for Jon to get into position. If Stannis manages to take Winterfell and remove the Boltons then what is Jon supposed to do?

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On 9/21/2018 at 10:59 AM, nickdt said:

Stannis has approx 500 - 700 swords left, meaning he is outnumbered by the Karstarks, Manderly's, Umbers and Boltons, of which only the Manderlys are a certainty for betraying the Boltons, since we easily can have both Umber sides fighting eachother. 

 

How did you come by this number? i don't think we can claim an approximate estimation yet,  as said earlier, no-one has given us the confirmed number of Southern knights / men-at-arms that sailed from Dragonstone with him.

 

I thought it was around 3,000~ , i'd assume half of them have died by now, so he should have about 1,500~ in Southron forces left to him at the crofter's village

 

On 9/21/2018 at 9:34 AM, divica said:

Stannis has a huge problem. His loyal southerners have had so many casualities that by the time he arrives at winterfell he will become irrelevant (assuming that for the next months he won t have sellswords from essos). 

And one of the things we are told (by lots of people in diferent instances) and shown during the march is that nobody likes stannis. And the northerners don t seem to be na exception. 

 

They don't have to like him. Stannis is the king's brother, and the last remaining figure in the the Stark-Baratheon alliance that helped keep the power-bloc after removing the Targaryen dynasty, the man commands some respect. 

Right now theres some debate on how many men he can field, but he does come to the table with some power and a level of legitimacy

 

1 hour ago, Amris said:

But if Stannis wins then he stays in the story. And that's a problem since we all suspect Jon needs to take the place of northern leader at some point. Stannis needs to go in order for Jon to get into position. If Stannis manages to take Winterfell and remove the Boltons then what is Jon supposed to do?

You don't need to kill Stannis to open up Jon's arc. but sure as shit someone competent is needed at the Wall considering how bad things are there right now.

hear me out, i think you should think more on just how many possibilities or ways Jon's story-line can go if he comes back in Winds, and how he may be changed. I've always thought his storyline leads further North, especially if we're right about how sinister Bran's plot is becoming. Bloodraven has been behind some of those most fucked up shit in recent history all to manipulate prophecy and change, influence the future.

 

I won't go into the details because we don't know the answers for sure until TWoW, but i will reaffirm vehemently that a man of Stannis's ability & caliber will be sorely needed once the Others finally make their play and reveal their hand

if the Wall / North has any chance to resist them descending on the rest of Westeros, he will be part of that, and of course, him trying to save the realm will all be thankless, and no-one will know or realize,  which will make him grind his teeth all the more.

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4 hours ago, Amris said:

I have heard of the scenario you are describing and think it is well thought out. Especially the thing about the holes in the ice and the night lamp theory.

The problem I have is my feeling is exactly opposite to yours: I feel like Stannis has to lose the battle for the story to progress.

I don't know how Stannis can lose against the Frey's if they are obliging enough to come to him. When all they would have needed to do was stay put and let him starve and freeze to death.

But if Stannis wins then he stays in the story. And that's a problem since we all suspect Jon needs to take the place of northern leader at some point. Stannis needs to go in order for Jon to get into position. If Stannis manages to take Winterfell and remove the Boltons then what is Jon supposed to do?

I think Stannis needs to win this battle for the story to progress, but that doesn't mean he needs to be alive by the end of the book.

I feel like one of the many mistakes of the TV Show was making Jon Snow the main character, when in the books there isn't really a singular main character. Jon doesn't need to do everything, his role will probably be to lead armies against the dead, and he doesn't need to be a King to do that. 

Don't get me wrong here, Jon Snow is my favourite character, but I don't see why so many people feel like he needs to be some sort of King by the end of the story. 

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5 hours ago, lrresistable said:

How did you come by this number? i don't think we can claim an approximate estimation yet,  as said earlier, no-one has given us the confirmed number of Southern knights / men-at-arms that sailed from Dragonstone with him.

 

I thought it was around 3,000~ , i'd assume half of them have died by now, so he should have about 1,500~ in Southron forces left to him at the crofter's village

we are told somewhere the number of troops that left with him to the north. It is about 1500 soldiers. I don t remember where this information is in the books but I remember from discussions in the forum that this number comes from the books.

5 hours ago, lrresistable said:

They don't have to like him. Stannis is the king's brother, and the last remaining figure in the the Stark-Baratheon alliance that helped keep the power-bloc after removing the Targaryen dynasty, the man commands some respect. 

Right now theres some debate on how many men he can field, but he does come to the table with some power and a level of legitimacy

 

we are talking about northerns. They want Independence from the south and you think they want to follow a Southern, that worships foreign gods, lets his men burn people alive, burns weirwoods and hasn t chamed them? 

If we add that he is in a desperate situation (even if he defeats the freys he doesn t have the resources to siege winterfell), has few soldiers loyal to him and the number keeps getting lower and that if davos doesn t come back very fast he will name a warden of the north that isn a stark then stannis is in a very VERY bad situation where even if he defeats the boltons the north won t rally to him (and this doesn t even take into account a possible last will from robb)

3 hours ago, EloImFizzy said:

I think Stannis needs to win this battle for the story to progress, but that doesn't mean he needs to be alive by the end of the book.

I feel like one of the many mistakes of the TV Show was making Jon Snow the main character, when in the books there isn't really a singular main character. Jon doesn't need to do everything, his role will probably be to lead armies against the dead, and he doesn't need to be a King to do that. 

Don't get me wrong here, Jon Snow is my favourite character, but I don't see why so many people feel like he needs to be some sort of King by the end of the story. 

I think the tv show didn t make jon the main character. It made the targs the main characters after some seasons (mainly after the war of the five kings arc). And it happened because they became responsible to what happens to their followers while the rest of the characters had storylines that pratically only affected them or few people around them.

 

And if we don t think all the characters will somehow gather to the north then jon will need power to be able to interact with people like dany, faegon, cersei… And the only power that jon can realistically achieve is KitN (and riverlands). To me it makes much more sense to make him king instead of rickon (that would be a figuerehead and make ruling the north very weird with lots of people taking advantage of the situation) or stannis (nobody likes him, he doesnt have the personality to unite a divided westeros against a comon threat and with all the targs apearing it isn t possible to have peace between them and stannis).

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4 hours ago, EloImFizzy said:

I think Stannis needs to win this battle for the story to progress, but that doesn't mean he needs to be alive by the end of the book.

I still think Stannis beats the Freys (with Manderly help), then loses when Roose's real forces come out of the snows and ambush him.  It would be just like Roose to sacrifice the Freys and Manderlys just to put Stannis in an easily defeated position.  Roose thrives on letting his "allies" take the blows while he takes the rewards.

 But I also think Roose will die with Stannis, leaving Ramsay sort of in charge, and sending his pink letter.  It would be just like stannis to take his foe with him to the grave.

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2 minutes ago, argonak said:

I still think Stannis beats the Freys (with Manderly help), then loses when Roose's real forces come out of the snows and ambush him.  It would be just like Roose to sacrifice the Freys and Manderlys just to put Stannis in an easily defeated position.  Roose thrives on letting his "allies" take the blows while he takes the rewards.

 But I also think Roose will die with Stannis, leaving Ramsay sort of in charge, and sending his pink letter.  It would be just like stannis to take his foe with him to the grave.

I also think he 100% wins the battle against the Frey soldiers, I'm just not sure what will happen when it comes to Roose. He sent a majority of the Frey and Manderly forces against Stannis, if all the Freys die and Manderly changes to Stannis' side, then I feel like one of the many people in Winterfell who despise Roose will take that as an opportunity to try and kill him. 

I also feel like Roose needs to be either dead when Ramsay sends the Pink Letter, or just unaware that he does it. What logical reason is there to send that letter? I think that's why many people think someone else sent the letter because it seems like it was make for the purpose of aggravating Jon to attack. 

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3 minutes ago, EloImFizzy said:

I also think he 100% wins the battle against the Frey soldiers, I'm just not sure what will happen when it comes to Roose. He sent a majority of the Frey and Manderly forces against Stannis, if all the Freys die and Manderly changes to Stannis' side, then I feel like one of the many people in Winterfell who despise Roose will take that as an opportunity to try and kill him. 

I also feel like Roose needs to be either dead when Ramsay sends the Pink Letter, or just unaware that he does it. What logical reason is there to send that letter? I think that's why many people think someone else sent the letter because it seems like it was make for the purpose of aggravating Jon to attack. 

If its really Ramsay who has suddenly inherited apparent control of the north sending the letter, then I think it makes perfect sense.  It fits Ramsay's personality very well.  Sometimes a cigar, is just a cigar.  Ramsay is smart enough to know he needs that fake Arya back, or else the North will completly abandon him.  its the only thing legitimizing his rule.  

 

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14 hours ago, divica said:

we are told somewhere the number of troops that left with him to the north. It is about 1500 soldiers. I don t remember where this information is in the books but I remember from discussions in the forum that this number comes from the books.

 

I still find it hard to believe he'd sail from Dragonstone with only 1,500 men.. going to need a book quote on that.

survivors of Rodrik's host from the battle at Winterfell have also come over to Stannis's side. He's really not in as bad a position as you think if you've read the released Theon & Asha chapters from Winds

14 hours ago, divica said:

if davos doesn t come back very fast

Davos won't be coming back anytime soon, he's going to be taking the Manderly ships to try rescue survivors at Hardhome.

He may be able to send Shaggydog as proof that he's found Rickon, though

14 hours ago, divica said:

 jon will need power to be able to interact with people like dany, faegon, cersei… And the only power that jon can realistically achieve is KitN (and riverlands).

no he doesn't need to be a King to have meaningful dialogue with any of these people. nor will he have any claim to the Riverlands, Robb only had legitimacy there because of his mother's heritage (and because he came to save their ass)

 

My guess is there won't be any time for the naming of Kings, Rickon or otherwise. it's going to be a fight for survival in Winds & Stannis is the best chance they've got at keeping everyone alive. no1 is going to give a shit about the Targs unless they come help them...like Stannis did.

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15 hours ago, lrresistable said:

I still find it hard to believe he'd sail from Dragonstone with only 1,500 men.. going to need a book quote on that.

survivors of Rodrik's host from the battle at Winterfell have also come over to Stannis's side. He's really not in as bad a position as you think if you've read the released Theon & Asha chapters from Winds

Davos won't be coming back anytime soon, he's going to be taking the Manderly ships to try rescue survivors at Hardhome.

He may be able to send Shaggydog as proof that he's found Rickon, though

no he doesn't need to be a King to have meaningful dialogue with any of these people. nor will he have any claim to the Riverlands, Robb only had legitimacy there because of his mother's heritage (and because he came to save their ass)

 

My guess is there won't be any time for the naming of Kings, Rickon or otherwise. it's going to be a fight for survival in Winds & Stannis is the best chance they've got at keeping everyone alive. no1 is going to give a shit about the Targs unless they come help them...like Stannis did.

He left men (Mainly veterans and recruits) at Dragonstone so the castle is somewhat defended. 

Many of his soldiers died at the Battle of the Blackwater or defected to the Lannisters so they didn't loose their heads. 

It safe to assume he lost a lot of men fighting the wildlings and some of his men are loyal to his wife Selyse and he also left them behind and we can also make the assumption that he also left the recruits he took with him North at the Wall, since he also leaves his squire there. 

I agree that Stannis isn't in a bad position, since there is a possibility that Alys Karstark and the Thenns retake Karhold before the Battle of Winterfell starts (Kahold is closer to the Wall than Winterfell is) and that Winterfell gets a message. That means the Karstarks are out of the battle of Winterfell, since they want to retake their home. 

We also don't know what the forces of Hother Umber does. If they betray Roose, then Roose has only the Boltons and the Dustin Forces left, but Barbrey Dustin also gives off that vibe she is gonna betray Roose. 

Then we don't know how many men the Manderlys have in reserve on their fleet and we have to take into account that those forces mainly can be Mormont and Glover troops, since Maege and Galbart went into the Neck with Robbs will. 

And then we have the fact that the North still has 2 completely fresh armies left: The Skagosi and the Cranogmen, so even if Stannis loses, the Boltons are most likely boned. 

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