Football: 3rd Season Meltdown

[A Horse Named Stranger]

5 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

It's a little odd that they were supposedly priced out of getting Allison at £60 whatever million but they're going to pay £71 million for this Kepa. Perhaps it was down to a lack of leadership with it taking so long to get Sarri into the managers job.

 

I think they possibly underestimated the dynamics of current events. They probably didn't expecct Liverpool to step in with as much intent as they did. Again, it's worth noting that Allison has only played one full season on that level, so Liverpool coughing up that kinda money is still sort of a gamble.

Now that their allegedly prefered target is playing elsewhere and their current number one is apparently (unexpectedly) forcing a move now (for Courtois probably the golden opportunity to move to Madrid, and how narrow those windows of opportunity are, well ask de Gea), their hand seems a bit forced to go all in on Kepa. And Bilbao is indeed not a club willing to negotiate over fees, either you meet the release clause, or you can look elsewhere.

[Iskaral Pust]

12 hours ago, ljkeane said:

You know how Liverpool fans are always complaining how unlucky we are and how lucky United are? Well, it's been scientifically proven we were right! United were the luckiest team in the Premier League last season and Liverpool were the unluckiest.

I feel vindicated.  And "lucky"/"unlucky" here means incorrect refereeing decisions with game-changing implications, not fortunate deflections, beachballs, xG/xGA, etc.  Look at the points differential they calculated: United would have had six points fewer and Liverpool would have had 12 points more!  A swing of 18 points is absolutely huge.  But I know we'll still get shafted by referees again this season.  It's not like last season was some aberration.  It's always like this. 

[Iskaral Pust]

Liverpool finished their preseason with a win against Torino.  I was concerned that this was a game too many and too close to the season opener but it seems to have gone OK with no new injuries.  But before the game even started we had Gomez, Klavan and Matip all injured and Lovren not yet ready to play.  Nat Phillips has done well in pre-season but starting the season with our U-18 CB seems farcical, plus there's no further back-up.  Fabinho played CB in the second half to allow VVD a rest and avoid any risk of injury to him too.

Fabinho missed a penalty.  He scored 19 of 20 for Monaco and was mooted as a new first choice penalty taker for Liverpool, and then goes and misses his first attempt.  Hopefully that means he'll score the next 19.

Gini had a good game and Shaqiri looked good again from the bench.  Trent started and Henderson got a few minutes.  Milner was missing after getting 15 stitches in his head at Saturday's match.

[Iskaral Pust]

Did everyone see this ESPN article  late last season about "storming" tactics by Liverpool, City, Roma, Napoli, etc.  It's interesting how it uses player fitness as a new dimension, but also that it's most effective against good teams who attempt to play the ball (e.g. so we see big scorelines in the CL) and that it tends to suit second tier teams rather than the true elite.

[Consigliere]

I honestly don't understand our obsession with trying to sign a CB. A ball playing CB would be nice and all but not actually make any significant difference. Instead Mourinho seems to be quite happy going into yet another season with Young and Valencia as first choice FBs. Just compare the creative output of Young vs Trippier at the WC - the difference was night and day and we have Valencia on the right who is just as poor as Young. 

Quality attacking FBs would make a big difference to us and we needed to do what City did last season by investing heavily in that position. I'd be quite happy if the Alderweireld/Maguire/Boateng signing attempts come to nothing. No point in getting rinsed for a player in a position that we don't even really need. 

[ljkeane]

5 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

Quality attacking FBs would make a big difference to us and we needed to do what City did last season by investing heavily in that position. I'd be quite happy if the Alderweireld/Maguire/Boateng signing attempts come to nothing. No point in getting rinsed for a player in a position that we don't even really need. 

In fairness I can see why Mourinho wants a centre back. Despite having a good defensive record your defence wasn't actually that good last year, De Gea was just really, really good behind them. Considering United play in a way that doesn't put too much stress on the defence and Matic is a excellent defensive midfielder in front of them that's not ideal.

Having said that, yeah, there's probably more value in spending money to improve your fullbacks.

Chelsea have apparently agreed the deal to sell Courtois to Real with Kovacic coming the other way on loan. They've also paid the buyout clause for Kepa.

[Consigliere]

2 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

In fairness I can see why Mourinho wants a centre back. Despite having a good defensive record your defence wasn't actually that good last year, De Gea was just really, really good behind them. Considering United play in a way that doesn't put too much stress on the defence and Matic is a excellent defensive midfielder in front of them that's not ideal.

I'd say that the major issue is Mourinho's tactics and coaching. Mourinho likes everyone to push deep when defending and has failed to implement any coordinated pressing system which invites lots of shots and balls coming into the box. Signing Alderweireld doesn't change that. While he is better than any of our current CBs, his addition wouldn't actually make a significant difference. Just look at the pressing system that Klopp and Pep have implemented for their respective teams or for a more defensive example, Simeone at Atletico - a well coordinated press really does help a team defensively and not just in attack.

[ljkeane]

17 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

I'd say that the major issue is Mourinho's tactics and coaching. Mourinho likes everyone to push deep when defending and has failed to implement any coordinated pressing system which invites lots of shots and balls coming into the box. 

Hmm, I’m not sure I buy that. Mourinho doesn’t play attractive football but he’s got an impressive track record for playing effective defensive football. Yeah, defending deep gives the opposition more chances to play in the attacking third but it should also lead to lower percentage opportunities. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

I am gonna make a (not so) bold prediction for the upcoming EPL season.

I think this is gonna be a tougher season for Liverpool than most people here suspect. Klopp is demanding quite a bit from his players, with press and counter-press and quick attacks. This will be tough for the players after a major tournament like the World Cup. Over the course of the season, City will have (imho) less of a problem with that, as their offense is set up differently. City plays a much more possession based game, thus they can wear down opponents more easily by letting them chase after the ball. 

[Winterfell is Burning]

4 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I am gonna make a (not so) bold prediction for the upcoming EPL season.

I think this is gonna be a tougher season for Liverpool than most people here suspect. Klopp is demanding quite a bit from his players, with press and counter-press and quick attacks. This will be tough for the players after a major tournament like the World Cup. Over the course of the season, City will have (imho) less of a problem with that, as their offense is set up differently. City plays a much more possession based game, thus they can wear down opponents more easily by letting them chase after the ball. 

Also, they simply have a deeper squad. I can see this happening.

[Consigliere]

27 minutes ago, ljkeane said:

Hmm, I’m not sure I buy that. Mourinho doesn’t play attractive football but he’s got an impressive track record for playing effective defensive football. Yeah, defending deep gives the opposition more chances to play in the attacking third but it should also lead to lower percentage opportunities. 

I don't think that is necessarily true. The game has changed and I don't think a low block is quite as effective as it used to be. Another thing is that Mourinho used to be able to set his teams up to press better when defending and there was a clear attacking identity as well i.e. fast counter-attacking. He's failed to properly implement either at United and it can't simply be blamed on personnel - he's spent around €400m already. I think it should be abundantly clear that Mourinho has thus far failed to get the most out of the players at his disposal. 

[Iskaral Pust]

16 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

I think this is gonna be a tougher season for Liverpool than most people here suspect. Klopp is demanding quite a bit from his players, with press and counter-press and quick attacks. This will be tough for the players after a major tournament like the World Cup. Over the course of the season, City will have (imho) less of a problem with that, as their offense is set up differently. City plays a much more possession based game, thus they can wear down opponents more easily by letting them chase after the ball. 

No argument from me.  The post-WC season is usually challenging and, as I posted already, Liverpool’s squad isn’t any bigger than last year if you look at Coutinho & Can gone and Ox unavailable. Players like Lallana, Sturridge, Matip and Henderson will be just as injury prone as before, plus whatever new surprise injuries we see.

But I think we’re still making positive progress and can improve our points total* again (and get top 4 again).  Our defense was the best in the PL since the big loss to Spurs in October (only 23 goals conceded in 29 games), and we’ve now improved our GK.  Our midfield has some more creativity now than just the post-Coutinho workhorses.  But we’re buggered if any of the front three get injured or lose form.  You could say the same for our rivals turning toothless if they have injuries to Lukaku, Kane, Eriksen, Hazard, Aubameyang or Ozil.  Possibly our rivals have even greater key man risk.  Except for City.  Their depth is by far the best.

*Usually the points total for the league winners and the top 4 are lower in a post-WC year, so any improvement over last year would actually be a good success.

[Iskaral Pust]

15 minutes ago, Consigliere said:

I don't think that is necessarily true. The game has changed and I don't think a low block is quite as effective as it used to be. Another thing is that Mourinho used to be able to set his teams up to press better when defending and there was a clear attacking identity as well i.e. fast counter-attacking. He's failed to properly implement either at United and it can't simply be blamed on personnel - he's spent around €400m already. I think it should be abundantly clear that Mourinho has thus far failed to get the most out of the players at his disposal. 

I fully agree that Mourinho doesn’t get the most from his system.  He’s too reactive.  Occasionally it works well when they park the bus and target a weakness (like Trent Alexander-Arnold last season) but overall the team is underperforming its potential. 

Regarding low block defenses: both United and Burnley were extremely efficient last year at defending despite conceding a lot of possession and chances.  Very good goalkeeping and lots of blocked shots (aided by a deep defense) helped them.  But if that defensive efficiency declines even slightly then their points total would drop a lot.  Scoring so few goals in so many games leaves you slim margins.  And the low block doesn’t work if you’re chasing the game.  And if smaller teams decline to attack and instead demand you take the initiative, then you get stuck in more draws. 

[l2 0 5 5]

The Kovacic loan is nice and all, but I don't get how we let this happen without getting an option to buy at seasons end. Seems to me like we held all the cards with Courtois and could've got Kovacic permanently but what do I know. Maybe I'm missing something. I guess Real just don't want to part ways with a 24 year old who's surely in their starting lineup in the next couple seasons.

As for Kepa, don't know much about him. Spent a lot of money on him but we can't have Caballero back there fumbling around so spend what you need imo.

[ljkeane]

Happy Transfer Deadline Day everyone!

[Jordan La Cabra]

10 hours ago, Consigliere said:

I don't think that is necessarily true. The game has changed and I don't think a low block is quite as effective as it used to be. Another thing is that Mourinho used to be able to set his teams up to press better when defending and there was a clear attacking identity as well i.e. fast counter-attacking. He's failed to properly implement either at United and it can't simply be blamed on personnel - he's spent around €400m already. I think it should be abundantly clear that Mourinho has thus far failed to get the most out of the players at his disposal. 

The bolded is very true when it comes to the problems with Mourinho's Man United team. 

During his first spell and especially his second spell at Chelsea, he set his teams up to be hard to score against. Often that meant going into games against our rivals with a low defensive block. It could be frustrating to watch us defend deep against teams we should have been able to go toe-to-toe against, considering the personnel we had at our disposal, but we were so good on the counter attack that all it took was one break and we were a goal up. Our record against our top six rivals in 13/14 & 14/15 highlights this. 

In fact, in 13/14, we managed to do the 'double' over Liverpool and Man City by defending deep and breaking fast. We went on to finish third behind both these teams, because when we were tasked with having possession against teams that deployed low block tactics against us, we couldn't find a way through them and our strikers weren't clinical enough when we did get chances, hence why signing Fabregas and Costa in the summer was enough to help us win the league in 14/15.

The performance against Liverpool at Old Trafford last season was as close as I've seen Man United look like one of Jose's prime Chelsea sides.

 

As for Chelsea's recent business, I'm quite pleased with who we have ended up with. Kepa has cost a lot of money, but I am glad we have chosen to sign him ahead of some of the other names we were linked to. He has been given a seven year deal, too, which I don't recall ever seeing at Chelsea before.

 

 

[Consigliere]

11 hours ago, l2 0 5 5 said:

The Kovacic loan is nice and all, but I don't get how we let this happen without getting an option to buy at seasons end. Seems to me like we held all the cards with Courtois and could've got Kovacic permanently but what do I know. Maybe I'm missing something. I guess Real just don't want to part ways with a 24 year old who's surely in their starting lineup in the next couple seasons.

As for Kepa, don't know much about him. Spent a lot of money on him but we can't have Caballero back there fumbling around so spend what you need imo.

Chelsea did not have nearly as much leverage as you think. Courtois has been desperate to leave for some time now and Madrid is the only destination he's interested in due to his family being there and he also resorted to going on strike to force a transfer. Real Madrid wanted to sign a GK but aren't exactly desperate for one. Kovacic wants more playing time and is a talented player that Real want to keep. Insisting on an option to buy was never going to happen and would have resulted in Chelsea being stuck with a player on strike who would leave for free anyway in a year. This deal satisfies everyone. 

 

46 minutes ago, Jordan La Cabra said:

As for Chelsea's recent business, I'm quite pleased with who we have ended up with. Kepa has cost a lot of money, but I am glad we have chosen to sign him ahead of some of the other names we were linked to. He has been given a seven year deal, too, which I don't recall ever seeing at Chelsea before.

That's a smart move actually. The hefty price tag can now be amortised over a longer period of time. 

[Jordan La Cabra]

The ball was very much in Real Madrid's court with the Courtois/Kovacic deal. Courtois made it clear he wanted to move and had a 'preferred destination'; couple that with that fact he had a year on his contract, Madrid were able to get him for a price way below his market value.

With Kovacic, sending him on loan 'sweetened' Chelsea, but also means they can harden their stance on Modric. They wouldn't want to let Modric go even if they kept Kovacic, but now he's out on loan, they need to hold onto Modric even more. Kovacic is a player they value highly - apparently at around £70-£80m. He's a talented player; he's just playing in the same team as Kroos and Modric, two of the best in the world, so it's always going to be difficult to get as much game-time as he'd like.

What would have been nice, from Chelsea's point of view, would have been if they could have brokered a deal with Real Madrid in which they gave them Courtois + £40m to sign Kovacic permanently. A deal like that, though, would have been a better deal for Chelsea than Real Madrid. Chelsea would have got rid of a player that didn't want to play for them, while signing a player for around half of his market value. 

The current deal favours Real Madrid. They get Courtois for a cut price, Kovacic gets to go on loan, play more games and potentially develop. If Kovacic impresses Chelsea and they want to sign him next summer, they will have to bid like any other team, as there's no option to buy. This means they'll have to fork out around £80m for Real Madrid to even listen. 

This a good deal for Chelsea, but an even better one for Real Madrid.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

12 hours ago, l2 0 5 5 said:

The Kovacic loan is nice and all, but I don't get how we let this happen without getting an option to buy at seasons end. Seems to me like we held all the cards with Courtois and could've got Kovacic permanently but what do I know. Maybe I'm missing something. I guess Real just don't want to part ways with a 24 year old who's surely in their starting lineup in the next couple seasons.

 

You are overestimating Chelsea's hand there imho. Courtois had one year left on his contract, and he was apparently determined to go on a strike (somehow I am not happy to use the word strike for a milinaire throwing a tantrum, but in absence of a better word). So what would or should Chelski do? Hope Courtois back down? What if he doesn't, that means having to rely on their back up goalkeeper, and possibly Courtois poisoning the locker room. Would a year without playing diminish his prospects of moving to Madrid, or would he just move there on a free transfer? So they decided to bring in a new goalkeeper, that means there were two ways to handle the Courtois situation. Either send a message and don't play Courtois for the entire season to make a point. Or sell him, collect the transfer fee and get him off the pay roll. While the making him sit out his contract wold've been emotional extremely gratifying, it would've also been a very expensive message. You'd have him still on the pay roll, and you wouldn't get any transfer fee.

As for Madrid, it's not like they were that desperate to sign a new goalkeeper. Navas tends to get some stick now and then, but he is by no means a horrible goalkeeper that desperately needs to get replaced. So Madrid could've waited another season to get their desired player (be it Courtois or somebody else).

[Iskaral Pust]

It sounds like Fabinho is injured and will miss the opening game at least.  No word on Milner yet after his head injury, and Henderson not yet ready.  Our MF sounds thin already.  I’m not thrilled at all about Lallana potentially playing. 

 

In other news: Godin learned a trick from Ramos on how to troll Utd.