Who do you think is Mance’s father?

[wia]

18 minutes ago, bemused said:

Yes, people go grey at different rates, and while Ned's life isn't soft, Mance's is even less so.

The bold text is where we can go wrong, I think. (I think the boys had to be 5 -6 in order to be playing where they were - 4 would be pretty young but set that aside)

The main thing is, Jon is not a five or six year old calling Mance young at the time. Grown-up Jon is looking at Mance now, recognising him, remembering what he looked like then, and that he was a young ranger when he visited WF.

Ned himself would only have been be about 25 at the time. Jon is meeting Mance now only 10 -11 years later. I don't think Mance can be much younger than Ned ,at all.

Lord Commander Qorgyle died in 288 AC. Jon and Robb were born in 283, which means that they couldn't be more than 5. Should we not have those dates, I'd also assume that they were a bit older than that.

As for Jon asserting him as young now, it does make sense. 

 

7 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

That is the correct response, because many timings within AGoT simply cannot be reconciled, not even internally consistent.

I found another one in my latest re-read: Renly says that Ilyn Payne hasn't been talkative these 'past 14 years', having had his tongue ripped out on the orders of a king who died 15 years ago, whilst Tywin was the Hand (what, 17 years ago???) It just speaks to the difficulty of trying to cross-reference events for firm datings....

I think it's the fact that 17 years ago Renly was 5. He knows it happened when Tywin was the Hand, which was definitely more than 14 years ago, but it's not important enough for him to actually do the math. 

[bemused]

8 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

On the one hand Thorne and Rykker joined the NW after the Sack of KL whilst Mormont was LC, yet LC Qorgyle visited Winterfell some years later Impossible.

What makes you say this?  

Sack of KL, Rykker and Thorne to wall - 283

Mormont elected LC - 288 , 5 yrs. later ...that means..

Qorgyll died -288 ... and...

Mance and Qorgyll had to visit WF in 287-288 because the boys (born 283) were playing up om the wall walk

 

[bemused]

9 minutes ago, wia said:

Lord Commander Qorgyle died in 288 AC. Jon and Robb were born in 283, which means that they couldn't be more than 5. Should we not have those dates, I'd also assume that they were a bit older than that.

Yes, In my old thread I had to get picky and allow that it might matter ...early in the year? late in the year? close to the boys birthday?..so I was rounding. Like I allowed 287-288 for the visit

Really, to me it seems like 288 is when everything happened. The visit, Qorgyle dies ,Mance leaves and Mormont gets elected...Phew!

[wia]

22 minutes ago, bemused said:

Yes, In my old thread I had to get picky and allow that it might matter ...early in the year? late in the year? close to the boys birthday?..so I was rounding. Like I allowed 287-288 for the visit

Really, to me it seems like 288 is when everything happened. The visit, Qorgyle dies ,Mance leaves and Mormont gets elected...Phew!

It's a good thread you have there. Made me curious why would Mance be accompanying Qorgyle in the first place when Mance was serving at the Shadow Tower. What's the point of having someone come from the Shadow Tower to the Castle Black to accompany you? Was it a reward perhaps?

[Rufus Snow]

2 hours ago, bemused said:

What makes you say this?  

Sack of KL, Rykker and Thorne to wall - 283

Mormont elected LC - 288 , 5 yrs. later ...that means..

Qorgyll died -288 ... and...

Mance and Qorgyll had to visit WF in 287-288 because the boys (born 283) were playing up om the wall walk

 

Don't you see the difficulty?

MORMONT said that Thorne and Rykker came to the Wall during his term as LC. But He wasn't LC for another five years. So one or more of those dates or events has to be wrong, hence so does everything we base on whichever fact is incorrect.

Quote

A Game of Thrones - Tyrion III

"The Watch has no shortage of stableboys," Lord Mormont grumbled. "That seems to be all they send us these days. Stableboys and sneak thieves and rapers. Ser Alliser is an anointed knight, one of the few to take the black since I have been Lord Commander. He fought bravely at King's Landing."

The obvious or simplest explanation is Mormont mis-remembering WHEN he was elected, which really undermines his testimony for any other datings or who was where when. But we need to recognise this unreliability so as not to rely on it and tie ourselves in knots further down the line. Anything else he declares as 'since I was LC' needs to be taken with a +/-5yrs pinch of salt...

[bemused]

9 hours ago, wia said:

It's a good thread you have there. Made me curious why would Mance be accompanying Qorgyle in the first place when Mance was serving at the Shadow Tower. What's the point of having someone come from the Shadow Tower to the Castle Black to accompany you? Was it a reward perhaps?

I guess George would say "Keep reading..." I dunno. I think there has to be a point... I do think Mance was being groomed for leadership at arm's length by Qorgyle.. So could be just to let him meet and observe Ned for future reference, but I suspect there has to be more to it than that. (That's if I'm right and Qorgyle is his father)Upthread @Clegane'sPup said... 

Quote

 

For fun and for free someone do a Tormund and spin me a tale on how Mance got that damn raven wing helmet.

 

This is the thing that makes me keep the door open just a crack for Papa Bloodraven, feeble or not. (But I still prefer Qorgyle)

There are so many ways he could have come by it.. It seems to be a helmet originally belonging to one of the Raven's Teeth who came to the wall with BR. ... It could have been given to him by someone at the wall (Qorgyle? Aemon?)... He could have just taken it himself when he left (assuming the Shadow Tower has something equivalent to the shieldhall) ... He could have won it from one of the wildling leaders he defeated on his way to becoming KBTW... Could have been a gift from Dalla, like the red silk mending his cloak was given by ?_? (Dalla or another wise woman) ... but regardless of how he got it, it's real importance might be as a symbol to us that whether he knows it or not, he'll be acting in support of BR's agenda. (I think there are signs that though he left the watch, he's trying to adapt some of their practices for the wildlings.)

8 hours ago, Rufus Snow said:

Don't you see the difficulty?

MORMONT said that Thorne and Rykker came to the Wall during his term as LC. But He wasn't LC for another five years. So one or more of those dates or events has to be wrong, hence so does everything we base on whichever fact is incorrect.

.... Glad I didn't have a mouthful of coffee when I read that. It was 3 am  my time, and I wasn't paying strict attention - but how many times have I read past that in the text?... I wouldn't want to count. (I've often read it with a focus on Thorne's character, and so on, not timeline.)...Hilarious.

If I take your overall meaning correctly, I agree.. of course we have to pay some attention to timelines, but I find where dates are slightly foggy, you just have to put logic first (I'm thinking of something I'm working on right now.)

[Quoth the raven,]

Craster immediately recognized Jon from his appearance.  Mance is the sharpest guy around.  He would recognize Jon immediately.  Which maybe is why he spared him.  The text doesn't say but this unique look was probably a gift from Bael's dna.  Ygritte tells Jon the story of Bael and why they are of the same blood.  Mance, Craster, Ygritte, and Jon are all Starks.  So what even if Mance's dad was not a known Stark.  He still carry their blood.  

And what of Brynden and Aemon.  So what then if they fathered children with the wildings.  It maybe nothing but there must be a lot of wildlings that have fire and ice in their veins.  IF they cuddled with the wildling women.  I doubt they did but we can't rule out the possibility.  The amount will be minute traces in the blood though.  So small and the ancestry so distant that we do not see albinism among the wild ones.  

[Rufus Snow]

2 hours ago, bemused said:

Looks like you've been filming at my local

These little slips are sent to try us - do we see it as a deliberate hint that Mormont's going senile, or that GRRM just boobooed, or it's a serious clue to something? It might just be another artefact from his 5-year shift in chronology that never got cleared up

[Clegane'sPup]

13 minutes ago, Rufus Snow said:

Looks like you've been filming at my local

These little slips are sent to try us - do we see it as a deliberate hint that Mormont's going senile, or that GRRM just boobooed, or it's a serious clue to something? It might just be another artefact from his 5-year shift in chronology that never got cleared up

I dunna know what the first line means. Forgive me.

As to the second part, if martin had delivered his material in a timely manner people would not be having these yapping bouts that point out the discrepancies in his story.

2 hours ago, bemused said:

I guess George would say "Keep reading..." I dunno. I think there has to be a point...

I went back and read the information contained in the link to your previous thread. Due to my bias of enjoying reading your thoughts back in 2015 when I was a newbee I would say you put forth a grand effort at that time.

----------------------

All I can add at this point is that I accept Mance was wildling born. 

[White Ravens]

On 10/6/2018 at 5:34 PM, Trigger Warning said:

Some man, no doubt. Most of them are.

Best answer,  given the information available in the text. 

On 10/6/2018 at 11:19 PM, Dorian Martell's son said:

There is literally no way to know and it doesn't matter in any way to the story. So I will say Lord Commander Qorgyle. Because why not. 

This.

 

I will see you one Qorgyle and raise you one Maester Aemon Targaryen.   Sometimes he would get lonely. 

[Dorian Martell's son]

14 hours ago, White Ravens said:

Best answer,  given the information available in the text. 

This.

 

I will see you one Qorgyle and raise you one Maester Aemon Targaryen.   Sometimes he would get lonely. 

He totes fathered a child in his 70's. Just like Tony Randall! 

 

[White Ravens]

33 minutes ago, Dorian Martell's son said:

He totes fathered a child in his 70's. Just like Tony Randall! 

 

Tony Ranadall?  As if!!

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 10/7/2018 at 11:57 AM, Lady Barbrey said:

I take your point but it's hard to know how old he was when he's just designated as a child. Jon was only 14 or 15.  Mance might have been 12 to be designated a child and therefore close enough to anyone else in age.  Anyway, it's a possibility he was the son of a big wig, at any rate.

I imagine younger than that given the continuous usage of the word “raise” in reference to describing how his relationship started-if he was seen as old enough to where it’d seem as appropriate to even give him the chance to say his oaths(I understand there isn’t an age requirement but I imagine even the watch would not take a four year old for instance if there was nothing special about him-as in some powerful family wants him in the brotherhood for some reason). And if he wrote the PL I imagine they got to him to where teaching him ethers wouldn’t be an arduous task. Though that makes wonder why they would do such a thing with Mance yet not try it with the rest of the brotherhood if he wasn’t special from the get go(illiteracy is a problem Jeor complains that infests watch).

 

On 10/8/2018 at 3:21 PM, Rufus Snow said:

Looks like you've been filming at my local

These little slips are sent to try us - do we see it as a deliberate hint that Mormont's going senile, or that GRRM just boobooed, or it's a serious clue to something? It might just be another artefact from his 5-year shift in chronology that never got cleared up

I would bet on the last one. 

[Lady Barbrey]

7 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I imagine younger than that given the continuous usage of the word “raise” in reference to describing how his relationship started-if he was seen as old enough to where it’d seem as appropriate to even give him the chance to say his oaths(I understand there isn’t an age requirement but I imagine even the watch would not take a four year old for instance if there was nothing special about him-as in some powerful family wants him in the brotherhood for some reason). And if he wrote the PL I imagine they got to him to where teaching him ethers wouldn’t be an arduous task. Though that makes wonder why they would do such a thing with Mance yet not try it with the rest of the brotherhood if he wasn’t special from the get go(illiteracy is a problem Jeor complains that infests watch).

 

I would bet on the last one. 

Yeah I imagined younger than that too but we really don't know.  I know raising a 12 year old is every bit as difficult as raising an 8 year old!  But with girls considered adults at 13 and boys off to the Watch at 14, it's really hard to make comparisons to our day and age.

You make a good point about literacy; I can't imagine them teaching him to read unless he was the child of someone who could read or they had need of more stewards like Sam and Jon possibly.  Still points to his dad being higher in the hierarchy.

[bemused]

On 10/9/2018 at 5:27 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I imagine younger than that given the continuous usage of the word “raise” in reference to describing how his relationship started-if he was seen as old enough to where it’d seem as appropriate to even give him the chance to say his oaths(I understand there isn’t an age requirement but I imagine even the watch would not take a four year old for instance if there was nothing special about him-as in some powerful family wants him in the brotherhood for some reason). And if he wrote the PL I imagine they got to him to where teaching him ethers wouldn’t be an arduous task

I think judging his age when they took him in will depend a lot on which side of the wall the raiders were on when they were put to the sword. Were they on the south side, caught in the act ... or had they crossed back over, and maybe even got home to family, but were caught with "the loot" or captives? (I assume George will tell us eventually)

We know that Squirrel (named for her great climbing ability) was taken on her first trip across the wall by her brother at age 12. If Mance was an even better climber, maybe be'd be as young as 10 ... but that might be too young, even for Mance. However, if the raiders were taken on the north side of the wall, he could have been with a group that had been waiting for the raiders' return - and then he could be younger.

I don't happen to think Mance wrote the PL, but I do think he's probably literate, anyway. Going with my guess of papa Qorgyle, I think he placed him at the shadow tower so as not to draw attention to him (say, if there was a family resemblance) but I'm sure he'd want the maester to give him some education (long distance grooming for leadership?)

He may not have been expected to swear his vow very soon. He was obviously going to make a good ranger, but I don't think he would have been sent out ranging for a few years (probably not before Jon's age), otherwise, chances were he'd run off on his first ranging.

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 hour ago, bemused said:

 

I don't happen to think Mance wrote the PL, but I do think he's probably literate, anyway.

I don’t really see Mance handling the forging of such a letter to anyone else’s besides himself. There really isn’t anyone he can reasonably be sure to be literate and agreeable to such a plan-Stannis and his noblemen  are not going to give an ultimatum to where Jon either has to give up Stannis’ heir, wife and favored witch, Jon for all they know could very well try just that(although yes very unlikely). 

1 hour ago, bemused said:

We know that Squirrel (named for her great climbing ability) was taken on her first trip across the wall by her brother at age 12. If Mance was an even better climber, maybe be'd be as young as 10 ... but that might be too young, even for Mance. However, if the raiders were taken on the north side of the wall, he could have been with a group that had been waiting for the raiders' return - and then he could be younger.

If he was taken south side of the wall I imagine he would be more an active participant, which means less reason to take him in.

1 hour ago, bemused said:

He may not have been expected to swear his vow very soon. He was obviously going to make a good ranger, but I don't think he would have been sent out ranging for a few years (probably not before Jon's age), otherwise, chances were he'd run off on his first ranging.

A fair fear-the Watch would have just butchered his family, it’s going to take time for him to get over that.

[Eli Cross]

On 10/6/2018 at 7:59 PM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

His justification for being allowed to stay at Castle Black is was the son of a black brother; but surely that cannot be it given his very existence would be seen as a violation of the oaths every brother takes; so why keep him around, why wouldn’t there be more little snows running around Castle Black or at the very least hear stories of a situation like mance? 

Maybe there are a few orphaned boys at the wall.  The youngest that need teats to eat are sent to Mole's town.  The ones who can do chores are kept at the wall.  Mance was old enough to run errands.  He was old enough to be useful.  The kid was lucky enough to fall under the mercy of a compassionate ranger.  If the attack on  his village had been led by somebody less compassionate like a Waymar Royce type the kid might have been left to perish in the woods.  Qhorin seemed to know Mance very well.  Why not tell it to Jon if Mance was the son of an important person.  Omission by the author perhaps.  How is the plot affected if he is the son of Craster?  He hated his father for sacrificing his brothers to the WW.  He vowed to stop the sacrifice and that is why the wildlings had to leave the far north.  It is leaky but holds a little water.  A caring mother left Craster's Keep with baby Mance to save him.  Brynden Rivers and Maester Aemon are too old to have fathered him.  An unknown Stark could have sired him and that is why he has a fixation on them.  He thinks himself the true heir to the north.  These theories leak.  His plot is smoother if he is the son of a random wildling man.

 

[Aegon VII]

Br went to the wall and beyond to fight the others. Br has been assisting mance, so mance is fighting the others as well (not just hiding).

[Asshai Backward]

13 hours ago, Sire de Maletroit said:

Maybe there are a few orphaned boys at the wall.  The youngest that need teats to eat are sent to Mole's town.  The ones who can do chores are kept at the wall.  Mance was old enough to run errands.  He was old enough to be useful.  The kid was lucky enough to fall under the mercy of a compassionate ranger.  If the attack on  his village had been led by somebody less compassionate like a Waymar Royce type the kid might have been left to perish in the woods.  Qhorin seemed to know Mance very well.  Why not tell it to Jon if Mance was the son of an important person.  Omission by the author perhaps.  How is the plot affected if he is the son of Craster?  He hated his father for sacrificing his brothers to the WW.  He vowed to stop the sacrifice and that is why the wildlings had to leave the far north.  It is leaky but holds a little water.  A caring mother left Craster's Keep with baby Mance to save him.  Brynden Rivers and Maester Aemon are too old to have fathered him.  An unknown Stark could have sired him and that is why he has a fixation on them.  He thinks himself the true heir to the north.  These theories leak.  His plot is smoother if he is the son of a random wildling man.

 

Probably true.  Orphaned wildlings, northmen, and even maybe the occasional promising foundling that Yoren totes back to the Wall.  

The orphan story is told by Selyse, however, and isn't really corroborated by anyone else, as far as I know.  The whole orphan thing sounds like it could just be a random rumor that has spread, or it could be an intentional lie planted by someone who is aware that Mance's origin story is a bit more complicated.

Here's a version--the Watch takes some prisoners.  A powerful Watchman falls for his captive, who is in wilding essence his wife anyway.  She gets pregnant, but manages to escape from the Shadow Tower.  Powerful Watchman sends a force out to retake her, but she dies in the process, and only the baby/toddler is left.

 

[bemused]

On 10/12/2018 at 12:45 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I don’t really see Mance handling the forging of such a letter to anyone else’s besides himself. There really isn’t anyone he can reasonably be sure to be literate and agreeable to such a plan-Stannis and his noblemen  are not going to give an ultimatum to where Jon either has to give up Stannis’ heir, wife and favored witch, Jon for all they know could very well try just that(although yes very unlikely).

Not to start a discussion and derail the thread - just in explanation : I think that the PL was intercepted and changed slightly by the would-be assassins at the wall. I think Stannis most probably did write the letter . I have plenty of reason to think so, but it's a complicated explanation. The conspirators want to put Jon in an impossible situation, so that they can have an excuse for killing him. It's their paper shield, in a way, to use in their defense afterwards. (Before the letter arrived, I think they planned to kill Jon on the ranging.)

There are so many strong (and reasonable) opinions on who wrote the letter, I don't think it's helpful to try to figure out who Mance's father is by relying on the assumption that Mance wrote it.

On 10/12/2018 at 12:45 AM, Varysblackfyre321 said:

If he was taken south side of the wall I imagine he would be more an active participant, which means less reason to take him in.

Yes ... unless he was taken by someone who knew very well who he was, like his father. Not impossible, but I lean toward Mance being younger and taken on the north side.