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Legitimate_Bastard

Houses most likely to rally to Aegon and GC

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Most obvious choices seem like the Dornish houses (at least according to JonCon) and those of the members of the GC. 

I would love to know what everyone thinks and why.

Also, if Aegon ends up being a black dragon instead of a red, how would this impact which houses would join the cause.

The wiki lists these houses as loyal to the Blackfyres during the first rebellion:

Quote

There are some big powerful houses that we have not seen that much of yet. Especially the Hightowers and the Yronwoods.

There are also those like the Osgreys who would stand to recover much of what they lost long ago.

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1 hour ago, EloImFizzy said:

It would be interesting if Randyll Tarly sided with Aegon to try and get promoted to Warden of the South. 

He would be one hell of a warden.

I wonder, though. How would the other houses who see themselves as the rightful great house of the Reach react to such an action by Randyll. Like the Hightowers, Redwynes, Oakhearts etc. and would it precipitate them gravitating toward fAegon to try to stump Tarly plans? 

Edited by Legitimate_Bastard

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1 hour ago, Legitimate_Bastard said:

He would be one hell of a warden.

I wonder, though. How would the other houses who see themselves as the rightful great house of the Reach react to such an action by Randyll. Like the Hightowers, Redwynes, Oakhearts etc. and would it precipitate them gravitating toward fAegon to try to stump Tarly plans? 

I at least think he'd make a better Warden then Mace Tyrell.  xD

I doubt the other Houses would be pleased, but at the end of the day it is first come first served. I bet the Houses of the Reach where much more pissed when House Tyrell got made Warden of the South after the Targaryen Conquest despite them only being stewards. 

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16 minutes ago, EloImFizzy said:

I at least think he'd make a better Warden then Mace Tyrell.  xD

I doubt the other Houses would be pleased, but at the end of the day it is first come first served. I bet the Houses of the Reach where much more pissed when House Tyrell got made Warden of the South after the Targaryen Conquest despite them only being stewards. 

I think Mace is too heavily criticized LOL. He did after all organize the flotilla/army/food etc while sending the Reach army to KL when Stannis attacked. He closed the roseroad which led to the riots in KL. More importantly he declined marrying Willas to Cersei. 

So he can't be tooo crap.

But yeah, you are right. Randyll would be way better.

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One should look the Targaryen loyalists, not the houses supporting Daemon Blackfyre during the first rebellion.

I suspect all of Dorne, Mathis Rowan, the Cracklaw Point people, most of the lords from the Crownlands, Bonifer Hasty and his Holy Hundred, many Riverlords, especially those who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident. Here it is rather interesting that a Targaryen descendant, Harwyn Plumm, presently commands the garrison at Castle Darry (which also happens to be a staunch Targaryen loyalist house, albeit apparently extinct in the male line). The Plumms in general might also support their kin, along with other Targaryen cousins - Penroses, Tarths, Velaryons, etc.

The Marcher Lords and other Stormlanders likely will also commit themselves to Aegon after he has taken Storm's End. If they oppose him they risk being caught between the Dornishmen and the Golden Company.

That should be it. There might be other houses from other regions, especially the Reach (people following Rowan's lead or deciding by themselves).

Those threatened by Euron and the Ironborn are likely to stay out of the Targaryen thing for the time being.

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1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

One should look the Targaryen loyalists, not the houses supporting Daemon Blackfyre during the first rebellion.

I suspect all of Dorne, Mathis Rowan, the Cracklaw Point people, most of the lords from the Crownlands, Bonifer Hasty and his Holy Hundred, many Riverlords, especially those who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident. Here it is rather interesting that a Targaryen descendant, Harwyn Plumm, presently commands the garrison at Castle Darry (which also happens to be a staunch Targaryen loyalist house, albeit apparently extinct in the male line). The Plumms in general might also support their kin, along with other Targaryen cousins - Penroses, Tarths, Velaryons, etc.

The Marcher Lords and other Stormlanders likely will also commit themselves to Aegon after he has taken Storm's End. If they oppose him they risk being caught between the Dornishmen and the Golden Company.

That should be it. There might be other houses from other regions, especially the Reach (people following Rowan's lead or deciding by themselves).

Those threatened by Euron and the Ironborn are likely to stay out of the Targaryen thing for the time 

I agree on most houses mentioned but some questions for you. Is the choice for Rowan soley based on his disgust ect. (I guess you know the theories) or do you think there is more to it. 

And about the Marcher lords. I always had a soft spot for these lords for some reason. Swann spared his forces, Beric did nothing but start an outlaw group. Is the Brotherhood gonna help Aegon? Did they want to and did its objective change after the split with lady Stoneheart and her shenanigans? House Caron is gone for all we know and there is nothing about house Selmy (except maybe a parallel with Barristan also supporting a Targaryen). I guess it would also be very GRRM to have Barristan fight his own cousins in the predicted second Dance. Would those powerful martial lords put away their hatred of the Dornish aside and aline with them?

Sorry, I guess this is more ranting (or spewing) than really asking but those Marcher lords always fascinated me

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8 hours ago, Deepbollywood Motte said:

I agree on most houses mentioned but some questions for you. Is the choice for Rowan soley based on his disgust ect. (I guess you know the theories) or do you think there is more to it. 

It is that and the fact that George has told us Mathis Rowan is right now at Storm's End, commanding the small force that keeps Stannis' people in Storm's End. He will interact with Connington and the Golden Company soon, and if they do not kill him it is very likely he is going to join them.

8 hours ago, Deepbollywood Motte said:

And about the Marcher lords. I always had a soft spot for these lords for some reason. Swann spared his forces, Beric did nothing but start an outlaw group. Is the Brotherhood gonna help Aegon? Did they want to and did its objective change after the split with lady Stoneheart and her shenanigans? House Caron is gone for all we know and there is nothing about house Selmy (except maybe a parallel with Barristan also supporting a Targaryen). I guess it would also be very GRRM to have Barristan fight his own cousins in the predicted second Dance. Would those powerful martial lords put away their hatred of the Dornish aside and aline with them?

The martial prowess of the Marcher Lords is really played up in TWoIaF. Yandel claims theirs are the finest archers in the Seven Kingdoms. That could be a hint that they will play a crucial role in Aegon's victory over the Tyrell army. Great Westerosi archers in combination with Black Balaqs goldenheart bowmen could certainly deal with Mace's armored knights before they can effectively attack.

Overall, I think the Marcher Lords will join Aegon for the same reason the other Stormlanders are already doing that. They resent the Lannisters and the way they treated the Baratheons, and Aegon is a Targaryen, the son of Rhaegar, a worthy king to follow.

I expect there to be more Carons and Dondarrions to be back in those castles. More distant cousins, women, somebody who could take charge.

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6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

It is that and the fact that George has told us Mathis Rowan is right now at Storm's End, commanding the small force that keeps Stannis' people in Storm's End. He will interact with Connington and the Golden Company soon, and if they do not kill him it is very likely he is going to join them.

 

I thought in dunc and egg its said that Mathis Rowan was a loyal Targaryan supporter, but i dont know if he supports a black now, because he always fought against them. But i agree with you that GRRM likely put Rowan there for this deal. I also think that houses with high ambitions like Rowan and Tarly would support Aegon. Viserys talked about supporters in the Reach. The Riverlands seems also supporting the brotherhood without banners, so they are not loyal to the Lannisters/Baratheons/Tyrell. The hightowers are on the side of the faith, so if Aegon tolorate the faith it will be an opportunity. The last possibility could be the valeryons, when they dont see any future in Stannis. But that there are supporters in the Reach is clear, but who ??? I guess Rowan, Tarly, hightower and maybe some florent. 

If he is a black Targaryan, its 100% sure the brackens will support his claim as it is family. I agree also with you on the marcher lords, as they are not Stannis supporters and also not very loyal to the Lannisters. Dondarrion is allready in rebellion with the Lannisters with BWB.

Edited by Seaserpent

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On 10/22/2018 at 5:58 PM, Legitimate_Bastard said:

Most obvious choices seem like the Dornish houses (at least according to JonCon) and those of the members of the GC. 

I would love to know what everyone thinks and why.

Also, if Aegon ends up being a black dragon instead of a red, how would this impact which houses would join the cause.

The wiki lists these houses as loyal to the Blackfyres during the first rebellion:

There are some big powerful houses that we have not seen that much of yet. Especially the Hightowers and the Yronwoods.

There are also those like the Osgreys who would stand to recover much of what they lost long ago.

Nice topic! The most houses in the list are little houses without land and power now or extinct, some of them are in the golden company. I guess Red or black doesnt matter anymore, only in comparison to Daenaerys. I think in comparrison with the Lannisters with their incest and problems with the faith and wars a Targaryan king is welcome. I told my houses supporting Aegon up here. The yronwoods i didnt mention, because i think if the Martells and the March kings support Aegon, they cannot choose another side and if they do it would be a big risk to back up the lannisters for some power.

Edited by Seaserpent

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Very few houses have good reason to oppose AeGriff, considering he is invading while the hated Lannisters are still in power, with the Boltons and Freys being just as hated, and not likely to put their asses on the line to aid them anyways.

Even the Tyrells, who are currently tied up with the Lannisters, have good reason to consider seeing what they can get for jumping ship, as their meal ticket Tommen won't be old enough to consummate or father a child on Maergaery for years.

The North and Riverlands are ruled by despised houses, and should be very easy to win over just by supporting the overthrow of the Boltons and Freys, whether in word or action. 

Typically, it would be a mistake to view any region as unified for one side or another. There are always some houses dissenting from the others, or throwing family members on both sides of a conflict.

In this case, however, very few houses outside the Westerlands have reason to stand by the Lannisters. And even some of those that might are the sort of opportunists who would try to jump if they thought they'd be accepted and benefit more from it.

If AeGriff has any early success, and doesn't immediately die, I expect many houses to rush to support him.

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19 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

One should look the Targaryen loyalists, not the houses supporting Daemon Blackfyre during the first rebellion.

I suspect all of Dorne, Mathis Rowan, the Cracklaw Point people, most of the lords from the Crownlands, Bonifer Hasty and his Holy Hundred, many Riverlords, especially those who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident. Here it is rather interesting that a Targaryen descendant, Harwyn Plumm, presently commands the garrison at Castle Darry (which also happens to be a staunch Targaryen loyalist house, albeit apparently extinct in the male line). The Plumms in general might also support their kin, along with other Targaryen cousins - Penroses, Tarths, Velaryons, etc.

I hadn't considered the Plumms, nor the possibility of them gathering additional forces via the forces of Darry. 

 

2 hours ago, Seaserpent said:

Nice topic! The most houses in the list are little houses without land and power now or extinct, some of them are in the golden company. I guess Red or black doesnt matter anymore, only in comparison to Daenaerys. I think in comparrison with the Lannisters with their incest and problems with the faith and wars a Targaryan king is welcome. I told my houses supporting Aegon up here. The yronwoods i didnt mention, because i think if the Martells and the March kings support Aegon, they cannot choose another side and if they do it would be a big risk to back up the lannisters for some power.

I could see the Yronwoods 'racing' the Martells for first dibs, in the hope it will get them supremacy in Dorne.

I had not really considered the Velaryons - Aurane Waters could def. go over to Dany of fAegon, and would be a powerful ally.

 

2 hours ago, Bael's Bastard said:


If AeGriff has any early success, and doesn't immediately die, I expect many houses to rush to support him.

It's looking like he will be more successful than not, at least by his first two actions. 

 

The Mathis Rowan interaction will be something.

 

Thanks folks.

 

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The most likely take on King Tommen's future is that he is likely to suffer a similar - and just as sudden - erosion of power as Maegor the Cruel did in the end.

The Lannisters are not loved, and the shadow of the Red Wedding looms very large. Tywin could keep that in check, but Tywin is gone. Then there is Tommen's age to consider - a helpless boy king who cannot protect his people or rule the Realm himself - in addition to the rumors about his illegitimate birth which do great damage to his legal claim.

Then there is the Faith to consider, and the high probability that the sparrows who have taken over the Faith as well as the new High Septon would prefer an adult Targaryen savior king to a bastard king born of incest and adultery (Aegon is a Targaryen but not incest born himself).

Finally, there is the strength of the Targaryen claim and the hope of all the people - lords and commoners alike - that the rightful dynasty is going to restore the peaceful and idealized past.

The latter is making it very likely the people from all the Seven Kingdoms will see hope in this miraculous return of a prince who was believed to be dead, not just die-hard Targaryen loyalists.

The crucial stepping stones are Storm's End - which Aegon apparently will take - and then the Tyrell army. If he takes the castle and then defeats the Tyrell army (assuming there is going to be a proper battle) then, I think, he'll come to KL like Jaehaerys I did after he proclaimed himself at Storm's End - only dragonless, of course. The parallel seems to be intentional there, and the most crucial thing in the campaign for the Iron Throne (not necessarily to pacify all the Seven Kingdoms) is that he does not face too much determined opposition. He doesn't need that large an army if his enemies cannot build a united front. And it seems quite clear that the Lannisters won't be able to send an army in time to defend KL.

Of the Reach we might also be able to consider the Merryweathers (because Orton, his father, and Owen spent time in Essos in exile, possibly serving with the Golden Company there), the Peakes, namely Lord Titus Peake and his wife, Lady Margot Lannister (because of the Peakes in the Golden Company).

Tarly and Mace might jump the bandwagon, too, but I don't see them doing that before a battle (Rowan, Merryweather, Peake, and the Stormlanders and Dornishmen might declare for Aegon after he takes Storm's End and proclaims himself)They have finally the power in KL, and it would be very irrational to throw that all away before they haven't yet tried to actually defeat the enemy.

However, if the battle turned to a rout because too many Reach men and Stormlanders are unwilling to fight against their countrymen in Aegon's army - or because of the banners they show - then Mace and Tarly might switch sides, too. But this would all depend under what circumstances this campaign takes place, how the KL situation is.

The city itself has to be considered as well. Rhaenyra faced bloody riots and the Storming of the Dragonpit. Varys might see to it that there is fighting on the streets, and should too many Tyrell men leave the city then the sparrows and the Kingslanders could very well overcome King Tommen's loyalists and seize the city in the name of Aegon, opening the gates to him when he finally arrives.

In general, any Targaryen pretender coming to Westeros now will be able to draw men and houses from all over Westeros to his banners, simply because of what he or she is and represents. The Targaryens rule them all, their power is not based on or limited to a this or that great house or this or that region.

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21 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

One should look the Targaryen loyalists, not the houses supporting Daemon Blackfyre during the first rebellion.

I suspect all of Dorne, Mathis Rowan, the Cracklaw Point people, most of the lords from the Crownlands, Bonifer Hasty and his Holy Hundred, many Riverlords, especially those who fought with Rhaegar at the Trident. Here it is rather interesting that a Targaryen descendant, Harwyn Plumm, presently commands the garrison at Castle Darry (which also happens to be a staunch Targaryen loyalist house, albeit apparently extinct in the male line). The Plumms in general might also support their kin, along with other Targaryen cousins - Penroses, Tarths, Velaryons, etc.

The Marcher Lords and other Stormlanders likely will also commit themselves to Aegon after he has taken Storm's End. If they oppose him they risk being caught between the Dornishmen and the Golden Company.

That should be it. There might be other houses from other regions, especially the Reach (people following Rowan's lead or deciding by themselves).

Those threatened by Euron and the Ironborn are likely to stay out of the Targaryen thing for the time being.

I agree we should be looking at houses that supported the Targs, especially during RR and not houses that supported any of the Blackfyre rebellions. Stromlands and Dorne i'd chalk up to Aegon and whatever friends the GC still have in Reach for a start. More houses will support Aegon as his victories add up.

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11 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Lannisters are not loved, and the shadow of the Red Wedding looms very large. Tywin could keep that in check, but Tywin is gone. Then there is Tommen's age to consider - a helpless boy king who cannot protect his people or rule the Realm himself - in addition to the rumors about his illegitimate birth which do great damage to his legal claim.

Then there is the Faith to consider, and the high probability that the sparrows who have taken over the Faith as well as the new High Septon would prefer an adult Targaryen savior king to a bastard king born of incest and adultery (Aegon is a Targaryen but not incest born himself).

 

I agree with this part. I think Aegon and the faith will rule westeros very strongly when Dany and the rhollor cronies arrive to fight them. 

Edited by Seaserpent

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On ‎10‎/‎23‎/‎2018 at 2:48 AM, Lord Varys said:

One should look the Targaryen loyalists, not the houses supporting Daemon Blackfyre during the first rebellion.

I think that's largely correct, however former Blackfyre supporters may be influenced by kin they may have in the Golden Company. That being said, by definition, most former Blackfyre supporters are relatively powerless, due to their support for rebellion.

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8 hours ago, Shouldve Taken The Black said:

I think that's largely correct, however former Blackfyre supporters may be influenced by kin they may have in the Golden Company. That being said, by definition, most former Blackfyre supporters are relatively powerless, due to their support for rebellion.

That's why I mentioned Lord Titus Peake and the Merryweathers.

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I think one should distinguish between the one who would (eventually) declare for Aegon and those who would form the power base of his reign and will contribute with troops during his confrontation with Dany and other threats (particularly Euron).

For example, Redwyne, Hightower and even Tyrell may declare for Aegon but they will be so busy fighting Euron that they may declare for the new king in the expectation that some relief would come. Same with any Riverlord, they are pretty much exhausted in terms of fighting ability and if any declares for Aegon, it would be in the expectation of some support (troops, food, etc)

Another thing. Whilst former Targaryen loyalists would form the base of Aegon's power (Dorne and the Reach, and there particularly Rowan) many who are sick of the Lannisters and years of wars may support him. IIRC there was a point that most of the armies of the Stormlands were barely touched by the tWo5K, we need to consider them here.

I also expect some kind of rebellion in the Westerlands. Many lords that have contributed too much to the Lannister's cause  may be quite tired and now that Tywin is gone, they have less to fear. As @Lord Varys said Plumm may take the lead (and pay for it).

Also, if you look carefully the situation of the Crowlands and near Riverlands, there are very interesting things, Duskendale and Maidenpool are controlled by Tarly, Stokeworth is controlled by Bronn, Rosby by that Rosby's ward. Harrenhal by the Ser Bonifer and Rosby by Sparrows. Beyond that I think LSH would have a lot to say.

On the other hands, I don't know what to expect from the Valeryons, Celtigar and the people of Crackclaw Point. My feeling is that they will not be very enthusiastic. Same with the Vale, I guess the later will cast their fates with Sansa and the North.

To summarize. Aegon VI should have the backing of most of the southern half of the Kingdoms and this would be Dany's tragedy because very few (if any) will declare for her when she arrives.

Now, the question is when Aegon starts gathering support and how it happens. My take is it is going to take a little bit more.

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5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I think one should distinguish between the one who would (eventually) declare for Aegon and those who would form the power base of his reign and will contribute with troops during his confrontation with Dany and other threats (particularly Euron).

While this makes sense, the latter is not something we can do right now, because we simply do not know when exactly Daenerys will arrive and in what shape Westeros will be at that time. Euron and Aegon and other people will greatly contribute to the coming battles and Dany is still half a world away. Euron's destructive potential is so high that we cannot really pretend we know how many houses and people he is going affect.

Aegon's enemies are likely going to declare for Dany, and as things stand the Lannisters (not under Cersei, of course) could be among them, but also people who develop doubt about him, his legitimacy, and his ability to rule.

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

For example, Redwyne, Hightower and even Tyrell may declare for Aegon but they will be so busy fighting Euron that they may declare for the new king in the expectation that some relief would come. Same with any Riverlord, they are pretty much exhausted in terms of fighting ability and if any declares for Aegon, it would be in the expectation of some support (troops, food, etc)

I think the Hightowers are more likely to declare for Euron to save their city and (a decent part of) their wealth whereas the Redwynes may no longer exist at that time. Or at least be insignificant due to the destruction of or the takeover of the Redwyne fleet.

The Tyrells are likely to eventually declare for Aegon considering that chances are not that high that Euron continues his ridiculous campaign against the Reach. He can only lose there on the long run, not win, and he doesn't want Highgarden or Oldtown, he wants the Iron Throne. But whether they will do this with Mace or only after his death is completely unclear at this point.

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Another thing. Whilst former Targaryen loyalists would form the base of Aegon's power (Dorne and the Reach, and there particularly Rowan) many who are sick of the Lannisters and years of wars may support him. IIRC there was a point that most of the armies of the Stormlands were barely touched by the tWo5K, we need to consider them here.

Yeah, it is both the fact that nobody pretty much likes the Lannisters, the fact that Tommen is a boy and a bastard, and the fact that Targaryen loyalists (or people who would now like a Targaryen restoration) do sit everywhere in the Seven Kingdoms, not just in certain areas like Dorne, the Reach, or the Riverlands.

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

I also expect some kind of rebellion in the Westerlands. Many lords that have contributed too much to the Lannister's cause  may be quite tired and now that Tywin is gone, they have less to fear. As @Lord Varys said Plumm may take the lead (and pay for it).

Oh, I don't think the Lannisters are right now in the shape to deal with some house in the West declaring for the Targaryens. They no longer have a clear ruler, and there might be infighting as to who takes charge now that Kevan is dead and Cersei not there. Daven could perhaps take charge, but he isn't there, too. Those back in Casterly Rock and Lannisport might have been too occupied with themselves to do anything. In addition, such declarations of loyalty to Aegon might result more in men streaming to him at Storm's End and KL rather than fightings in the home regions.

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

Also, if you look carefully the situation of the Crowlands and near Riverlands, there are very interesting things, Duskendale and Maidenpool are controlled by Tarly, Stokeworth is controlled by Bronn, Rosby by that Rosby's ward. Harrenhal by the Ser Bonifer and Rosby by Sparrows. Beyond that I think LSH would have a lot to say.

Maidenpool and Duskendale are no longer controlled by Tarly. He is in KL now, and there is no hint that he left a sizable garrison back in Maidenpool. And Duskendale was already again in Rykker's hand when Brienne arrived there.

Darry is no longer in the hands of the sparrows - they would have gone to KL with Lancel. The crucial fact here is that Harwyn Plumm remained with Amerei Frey.

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

On the other hands, I don't know what to expect from the Valeryons, Celtigar and the people of Crackclaw Point. My feeling is that they will not be very enthusiastic. Same with the Vale, I guess the later will cast their fates with Sansa and the North.

The Crackclaw Point people are Targaryen loyalists to the bone. They will help take KL. And the Velaryons, Celtigars, Masseys, Bar Emmons, etc. will likely rediscover their old loyalties, along with the other Crownlanders. In addition to the Kingslanders themselves. Remember what they did to Rhaenyra and the dragons. If Varys arranges a proper uprising things will go very bad for both the Tyrells and Tommen.

The Vale would be completely stupid if they don't try Aegon to clean Sansa's name and dominate the court of the new king. They can give the largest support and it is past time that Sansa gets her revenge against Cersei and the Tyrells.

They can abandon Aegon in favor of Daenerys or somebody else later on, especially if Euron kills Aegon or wins some major victories.

5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

To summarize. Aegon VI should have the backing of most of the southern half of the Kingdoms and this would be Dany's tragedy because very few (if any) will declare for her when she arrives.

That is not a given. They could just abandon the man as quickly as they joined him. Dany's large host and very strong armada in combination with rumors or revelations about his true parentage could quickly unmake the miracle boy. People are rarely suicidal. Not to mention that Aegon might suck as both as king and general after he has taken the Iron Throne. Euron could very well prevent him from gaining as much support as he technically could.

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On 10/23/2018 at 2:47 PM, Lord Varys said:

The martial prowess of the Marcher Lords is really played up in TWoIaF. Yandel claims theirs are the finest archers in the Seven Kingdoms. That could be a hint that they will play a crucial role in Aegon's victory over the Tyrell army.

I doubt, that Tyrells will be fighting against Golden Company. I think, that they will be on fAegon's side. It looks to me, that Varys from the very beginning planned, that Margaery will be Queen of 7K beside fAegon. Redwynes are supporters of Blackfyres <- this is based on scene between Tyrion and Illyrio, where they were drinking wine, from personal collection of Lord Redwyne.

Olenna Tyrell is a Redwyne. During Robert's Rebellion Mace Tyrells for most part of the war was doing absolutely nothing. If Tyrells were really on Targaryens' side, then Mace's troops, instead of idly sitting around Storm's End (that didn't had an army inside of it, that didn't had a fleet, etc, so was not a threat, even if they were just left there unsieged), would have went to King's Landing or Trident or Stoney Sept, and defeated rebells, prior they would have caused any significant damage to Targaryens. But for some reason Tyrells, that had the most numerous army in 7K, were staying away from battlefield, and because of their non-interference Starks-Baratheons-Arryns won in the war.

I think, that since Varys' arrival to 7K in 278, he planned destabilisation of 7K, and recruited numerous people as his agents. And amongst those people were Redwynes and Tyrells. So Tyrells didn't helped Targaryens during the Rebellion, because they were secretly working for Varys. They made an agreement, that when Blackfyre forces will conquer 7K, Tyrells will be helping them, and as a payment for that, one of Tyrell girls will become fAegon's wife and Queen of 7K.

Probably, it was Varys' idea for Margaery to marry first with Renly and then with Joffrey. He knew, that Renly was gay, so his marriage with Margaery wouldn't be consummated. And he let Tyrells to poison Joffrey, for Margaery to marry with young Tommen, with whom her marriage also won't be consummated. So even though she was (supposed to be still) a virgin, she was the Lady of Stormlands (thru her marriage with Renly, who was Lord of Stormlands, if Stannis and his wife and daughter will die, then Margaery has higher claim over Stormlands, than any of Robert's bastards, and there's no other heirs, so this Kingdom will belong to Margaery), and Queen of 7K (thru her marriages with Joffrey and Tommen), so she will still be eligible to marry with fAegon. So fAegon will have double claim over Stormlands - thru conquest, and thru his marriage with Margaery, who was the Lady of Stormlands (Stannis is an usurper, so Selyse has zero rights to be the Lady of SL). And thru marriage with Margaery and conquest fAegon will gain right to become King of 7K.

It seems, that Varys and his people don't plan for fAegon to marry with Arianne Martell. Otherwise they wouldn't have suggested to JonCon to marry with Arianne. It means, that they planed for fAegon to marry with someone else, and it's not Dany. Because, in case if fAegon will marry with Dany, then she will be the one, who will be sitting on Iron Throne. She's a pureblooded Targaryen, she has dragons and armies. While fAegon is supposedly a lost Targaryen prince. But besides JonCon's support of him, there's no evidences of his identity. So it's doubtful, that Dany would have married with some shady pretender. Why would she, if she has everything she needs, to get the crown of 7K on her own?

So my opinion, is that Tyrells won't fight against Golden Company. Martells will also support fAegon, even without arranged marriage with Arianne. Because what Doran really wants, is revenge, not the Throne.

fAegon's (possible) supporters: Martells, Tyrells, Redwynes. And nearly everyone with whom Tyrells are married - Fossoways, Beesburys, Bulwers, Hightowers, Meadows. And Brackens. And many supporters of Stannis are actually working for Varys. Probably, Selwyn Tarth, Brienne's father, is also one of Varys' people. Swanns will definitely support fAegon, because I think, that Septa Lemore is Lady Jayne Swann, and fAegon's mother.

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