Heresy 214 The Last Heretic

[Tucu]

4 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

I am a little confused on Ned's time line.  Aerys burned his brother and called for his head and instead he went to war.  We know he wasn't married before his brother died, as Cat and Brandon were betrothed.  Ned was in the Vale and had to flee under threat of capture while matching South to war.  We know Ned married Cat before he returned from the war with Jon, so sometime in there, he risked his life to marry a woman he didn't know, while avoiding Robert's urgent need for him in battle. 

How and why would he do this? 

My understaning is that Ned went north to bring his army, then met Jon's army and agreed a deal with Hoster.  Then they went to help Robert in the Battle of the Bells, after that they went to Riverrun. There Robert and Hoster recovered from their injuries, Hoster and Jon agreed the second marriage and they had the dual wedding.

[asongofheresy]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

I am a little confused on Ned's time line.  Aerys burned his brother and called for his head and instead he went to war.  We know he wasn't married before his brother died, as Cat and Brandon were betrothed.  Ned was in the Vale and had to flee under threat of capture while matching South to war.  We know Ned married Cat before he returned from the war with Jon, so sometime in there, he risked his life to marry a woman he didn't know, while avoiding Robert's urgent need for him in battle. 

How and why would he do this? 

Good question, and am I the only one who feels like the route Ned took doesn't make much sense too? Feels like there could be easier ways to go to Fingers while avoiding Gulltown when you look at the map of the Vale. 

There are so many bright minds here I know it is not related to our subjects but would love to hear your ideas about Yi Ti deities and Gemstone Emperors, I opened two threads about them in the General section if you are interested

Spoiler

 

One question - read Heresy thread where it was mentioned Daenerys may live in a brothel - HwtRD being the brothel she remembers how do you think this connects to Mercy TWOW chapter? We meet a young girl Daena who warns Mercy about mummers performing favors for their bosses and than getting sold or something, I remember the chapter right I hope, and since Daenerys was supposed to be in Braavos without any memory of Oberyn and the marriage pact maybe there was a switch that included Daenerys/Daena? *too much tinfoil*

[St Daga]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

And we have good reason to believe from his various interviews that GRRM has constructed most of his puzzles in such a way that they can be solved with fairly high confidence... so that when he rolls out the solutions, the fans will feel like they had a shot.

Sure, they have a shot because the vagueness leaves so many options that could be possible. And everyone has a shot at being correct, you just need to stumble onto the right combination. Heck, people can't even agree on a timeline, such as did the Battle of the Bells happen before or after Ned and Cat's wedding, or when Rossart was appointed Hand of the King. The world book made things even more jumbled, and even if you think Yandel is a worse source than some of our POV's, he still is publishing the accepted timeline and events of the rebellion.

[Melifeather]

11 minutes ago, Tucu said:

My understaning is that Ned went north to bring his army, then met Jon's army and agreed a deal with Hoster.  Then they went to help Robert in the Battle of the Bells, after that they went to Riverrun. There Robert and Hoster recovered from their injuries, Hoster and Jon agreed the second marriage and they had the dual wedding.

Robert recovered at a brothel in Stoney Sept called the Peach, because after Ned and Jon Arryn's forces were engaged in the fighting, Robert was well enough to come out and fight. The only text that says Robert attended Ned's wedding comes from the World book, which to me is a questionable source. 

[Brad Stark]

So really 2 questions.  Tully supported Ned before the Battle of the Bells, so the marriage wasn't to get his support.  Why would Ned, Cat, Hoster or anyone else involved rush to have a wedding, especially considering Ned might die in the rebellion?  Could Cat have been pregnant with Rob before?  Otherwise wouldn't it be better to wait until after, and have the option to we'd Cat to Benjen as a virgin, or see how the balance of power shifts after the war? 

Ned did not participate in Gull Town, but took a round about way to avoid it.  This makes no sense to me, as Robert and Jon Aryn could have used his help.  If there was a question of speed or danger, why wouldn't Robert go with him?  Splitting up seems like the worst possible idea. 

[Melifeather]

6 minutes ago, St Daga said:

Sure, they have a shot because the vagueness leaves so many options that could be possible. And everyone has a shot at being correct, you just need to stumble onto the right combination. Heck, people can't even agree on a timeline, such as did the Battle of the Bells happen before or after Ned and Cat's wedding, or when Rossart was appointed Hand of the King. The world book made things even more jumbled, and even if you think Yandel is a worse source than some of our POV's, he still is publishing the accepted timeline and events of the rebellion.

I don't see the significance of when Rossart became Hand. The timing doesn't really affect anything else, whereas the Ned and Catelyn's marriage before or after Battle of the Bells affects Robb Stark's conception and age difference between he and Jon.

[asongofheresy]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I've put my own timeline together based on personal theories. I feel I have the major events in the correct years, and I've placed Jon Snow's, Robb Stark's, and Daenerys's birthdays where I think they fall. Not saying the months are correct, just that the order of events seem to fall roughly where I've placed them. Feel free to tear this apart! 

Oct 281 - Attempt on Elia, perhaps also return from Dragonstone a month or so after birth of Aegon

Nov 281 - Tourney at Harrenhal

Dec 281 - Rhaegar leaves for Dorne with baby Aegon, (Pisswater baby swap)

Jan 282 - Lyanna abducted

Feb 282 - Brandon goes to Kings Landing

Mar 282 - Brandon and Rickard executed

Apr 282 - Jon Arryn refuses Aerys

May 282 - Arryn and Baratheon banners called

Jun 282 - Taking of Gulltown

July 282 - Ned travels home - Fisherman’s Daughter

Aug 282 - Ned arrives to White Harbor, Ashara gives birth to Jon

Sep 282 - Ned brings Wylla and Jon to Winterfell and calls banners

Oct 282 - Battles at Summerhal (Robert)

Nov 282 - Battle of Ashford, Ned’s first battle, joined forces of Baratheon, Arryn, and Stark

Dec 282 - Ned & Catelyn, Jon & Lyssa marry, Hoster Tully joins alliance

 

Jan 283 - Battle of the Bells

Feb 283 - Rhaegar returns, Tywin ignores Aerys, wildfyre planted

Mar 283 - Battle of the Trident, then Battle at the Mander

Apr 283 - Sack of Kings Landing, Ned fights 3 Kingsguard at Maegor’s Holdfast, finds Lyanna in black cells

May 283 - birth of Daenerys on Dragonstone

Jun 283 - Siege of Storms End lifted

July 283 - Ned returns Dawn to Starfall

Sep 283 - birth of Robb Stark

Oct 283 - Catelyn brings Robb to Winterfell

Nov 283 - Ned returns to Winterfell

Dec 283 - Willem Darry leaves Dragonstone with Dany and Viserys

 

Jan 284 - Assault on Dragonstone

Maybe Elia was returning from Dragonstone after birth of Rhaenys? Would that be too early?

 

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

So really 2 questions.  Tully supported Ned before the Battle of the Bells, so the marriage wasn't to get his support.  Why would Ned, Cat, Hoster or anyone else involved rush to have a wedding, especially considering Ned might die in the rebellion?  Could Cat have been pregnant with Rob before?  Otherwise wouldn't it be better to wait until after, and have the option to we'd Cat to Benjen as a virgin, or see how the balance of power shifts after the war? 

Ned did not participate in Gull Town, but took a round about way to avoid it.  This makes no sense to me, as Robert and Jon Aryn could have used his help.  If there was a question of speed or danger, why wouldn't Robert go with him?  Splitting up seems like the worst possible idea. 

There is nothing in text that supports Cat being pregnant because she think that Ned and her made a King together, but maybe Hoster was planning to seize WF for himself? Or maybe he didn't supported Rebellion until Ned agreed to the marriage? 

[alienarea]

19 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

Good question, and am I the only one who feels like the route Ned took doesn't make much sense too? Feels like there could be easier ways to go to Fingers while avoiding Gulltown when you look at the map of the Vale. 

There are so many bright minds here I know it is not related to our subjects but would love to hear your ideas about Yi Ti deities and Gemstone Emperors, I opened two threads about them in the General section if you are interested

  Reveal hidden contents

 

One question - read Heresy thread where it was mentioned Daenerys may live in a brothel - HwtRD being the brothel she remembers how do you think this connects to Mercy TWOW chapter? We meet a young girl Daena who warns Mercy about mummers performing favors for their bosses and than getting sold or something, I remember the chapter right I hope, and since Daenerys was supposed to be in Braavos without any memory of Oberyn and the marriage pact maybe there was a switch that included Daenerys/Daena? *too much tinfoil*

I always wondered whether the Yi Ti deities are an obscure cross reference to the Aing-Tii from the pre-Disney StarWars Universe.

 

[Melifeather]

10 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

So really 2 questions.  Tully supported Ned before the Battle of the Bells, so the marriage wasn't to get his support.  Why would Ned, Cat, Hoster or anyone else involved rush to have a wedding, especially considering Ned might die in the rebellion?  Could Cat have been pregnant with Rob before?  Otherwise wouldn't it be better to wait until after, and have the option to we'd Cat to Benjen as a virgin, or see how the balance of power shifts after the war? 

Ned did not participate in Gull Town, but took a round about way to avoid it.  This makes no sense to me, as Robert and Jon Aryn could have used his help.  If there was a question of speed or danger, why wouldn't Robert go with him?  Splitting up seems like the worst possible idea. 

Tully didn't provide men or fought in any battles until Battle of the Bells, so their alliance was questionable. Sure there was an alliance when Brandon was promised, but if the alliance was still there after Brandon and Rickard died, why didn't he provide any men?

I think the battle of Gulltown broke out nearly immediately after Arryn called his banners. Robert went home to Storms End to call his banners and then fought around Summerhal while making his way north to join Jon Arryn. Ned had the furthest to travel so by the time he reached Winterfell, called his banners, and moved south, the fighting at Gulltown and Summerhal were over. Robert moved on the Stoney Sept while Jon Arryn waited for Ned. When they heard Robert was cornered they turned to Hoster Tully for additional help. The new marriage alliances needed to be settled before they could count on Hoster Tully's men.

[Brad Stark]

7 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

Tere is nothing in text that supports Cat being pregnant because she think that Ned and her made a King together, but maybe Hoster was planning to seize WF for himself? Or maybe he didn't supported Rebellion until Ned agreed to the marriage? 

There is nothing in text that supports the need for an urgent wedding and this is usually the reason weddings are urgent.  Unlikely both brides were pregnant, so it is possible Hoster had suspicions of either or both.  Hoster personally fought in the Battle of the Bells before the wedding, so he was fully committed. 

[asongofheresy]

1 hour ago, alienarea said:

I always wondered whether the Yi Ti deities are an obscure cross reference to the Aing-Tii from the pre-Disney StarWars Universe.

 

As someone who is not familiar with Star Wars I would have to search Aing Tii it seems - I am more interested in finding similarities to Quranic connections and Turkic culture and mythology in Asoiaf series since I am most familiar with my own culture - I was thinking if it was possible to connect Royce Runes and Old Turkic despite missing letters? And a Reddit thread about Mance Rayder and Isa Al Messiah was eye catching too (though it was based on Hadith and not Qur'an)

[Melifeather]

14 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

Maybe Elia was returning from Dragonstone after birth of Rhaenys? Would that be too early?

 

There is nothing in text that supports Cat being pregnant because she think that Ned and her made a King together, but maybe Hoster was planning to seize WF for himself? Or maybe he didn't supported Rebellion until Ned agreed to the marriage? 

Rhaenys was born in 280, while the attack on Elia by the Kingswood Brotherhood was closer to the tourney at Harrenhal. We know the attack was shortly before the tourney, because Jaime Lannister was first knighted on the field by Ser Arthur Dayne, and then invested into the Kingsguard at the tourney as a reward for his help in disbanding the Kingswood Brotherhood.

You know what I find amusing is how the wiki pushes Aegon's birth to 282, which is impossible, because 1) Rhaegar was present at his birth on Dragonstone, and 2) King Aerys took Elia hostage in 282.

[Melifeather]

2 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

There is nothing in text that supports the need for an urgent wedding and this is usually the reason weddings are urgent.  Unlikely both brides were pregnant, so it is possible Hoster had suspicions of either or both.  Hoster personally fought in the Battle of the Bells before the wedding, so he was fully committed. 

The weddings were urgent, because they were at war and needed more men. They didn't have a lot of time to pussyfoot around! 

[asongofheresy]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

There is nothing in text that supports the need for an urgent wedding and this is usually the reason weddings are urgent.  Unlikely both brides were pregnant, so it is possible Hoster had suspicions of either or both.  Hoster personally fought in the Battle of the Bells before the wedding, so he was fully committed. 

Maybe after Lysa's pregnancy he had his doubts about Cat too? Or maybe Hoster thought Ned may marry someone else after the Rebellion so made sure the alliance wasn't broken? 

[St Daga]

54 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Not saying the months are correct, just that the order of events seem to fall roughly where I've placed them. Feel free to tear this apart! 

Oct 281 - Attempt on Elia, perhaps also return from Dragonstone a month or so after birth of Aegon

Nov 281 - Tourney at Harrenhal

Dec 281 - Rhaegar leaves for Dorne with baby Aegon, (Pisswater baby swap)

Jan 282 - Lyanna abducted

Feb 282 - Brandon goes to Kings Landing

Mar 282 - Brandon and Rickard executed

Apr 282 - Jon Arryn refuses Aerys

May 282 - Arryn and Baratheon banners called

Jun 282 - Taking of Gulltown

July 282 - Ned travels home - Fisherman’s Daughter

Aug 282 - Ned arrives to White Harbor, Ashara gives birth to Jon

Sep 282 - Ned brings Wylla and Jon to Winterfell and calls banners

Oct 282 - Battles at Summerhal (Robert)

Nov 282 - Battle of Ashford, Ned’s first battle, joined forces of Baratheon, Arryn, and Stark

Dec 282 - Ned & Catelyn, Jon & Lyssa marry, Hoster Tully joins alliance

 

Jan 283 - Battle of the Bells

Feb 283 - Rhaegar returns, Tywin ignores Aerys, wildfyre planted

Mar 283 - Battle of the Trident, then Battle at the Mander

Apr 283 - Sack of Kings Landing, Ned fights 3 Kingsguard at Maegor’s Holdfast, finds Lyanna in black cells

May 283 - birth of Daenerys on Dragonstone

Jun 283 - Siege of Storms End lifted

July 283 - Ned returns Dawn to Starfall

Sep 283 - birth of Robb Stark

Oct 283 - Catelyn brings Robb to Winterfell

Nov 283 - Ned returns to Winterfell

Dec 283 - Willem Darry leaves Dragonstone with Dany and Viserys

 

Jan 284 - Assault on Dragonstone

I am not even going to attempt to hash out months, but a couple of things stand out to me. I don't see any reason to think that Ned's forces joined Robert before the Battle of the Bells. If they had joined after Robert's defeat at Ashford, why were they separated later, which left Robert vulnerable at Stoney Sept? Hard for me to imagine that Ned would have marched his army even close to Ashford, then marched them north again. All the way to Riverrun? It seems counter productive.

Considering my own arguments about going the wrong direction, it does make sense that Ned and Cat married before the Battle of the Bells, even though at this point, there was no reason for Jon Arryn to marry Lysa, since he still had an heir alive. Perhaps Jon married Lysa  not to get an heir, but to help Hoster get her off his hands. Catelyn doesn't seem to think that this is why, but she is becoming very untrustworthy in my mind as far as being a viable source of information.

I would think Battle of Ashford, Robert's retreat to the north, Siege of Storm's End begins (we are told it was nearly a year), Ned marching to Riverrun, getting married, and then marching toward Robert's army, Stoney Sept would be when Robert, Ned, Jon Arryn and Hoster Tully's forces joined.

I have always found it odd that the rebel forces scattered the loyalists at Stoney Sept and then seemed to go back north at this point. They had to have gone north and east to battle at the Trident. Why did they just not continue on to KL and meet what ever rebel forces were on the way. It doesn't really make sense that they marched back north around the God's Eye, unless something more happened at Harrenhal that we have not been told.

Personally, I think it's possible that Lyanna was already dead by the time the Battle of the Trident happened, although I know it doesn't fit your theory of the toj being Maegor's Holdfast. I think that could still work, but with Lyanna being dead before this confrontation.

Also, how can Dany's birth happen before the siege of Storm's End was lifted, after all we are told that Stannis just missed getting to Dragonstone and capturing she and Viserys. I guess it could be argued that she was born previously, but how much? A great storm is said to have occurred at her birth and smashed the Targaryen fleet.

Also, I was under the impression that Ned escorted Catelyn and Robb to Winterfell, but perhaps that is not correct.

For the most part, I could see your timeline working,  but it works around certain theories to make the theories work, and it all will shift if those theories are not correct. That is why this timeline mess is so tangled up! I find it endlessly frustrating. Two days ago I was pretty sure that Ned and Cat got married after the Battle of the Bells, but now I am not sure! 

[Brad Stark]

6 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I think the battle of Gulltown broke out nearly immediately after Arryn called his banners. Robert went home to Storms End to call his banners and then fought around Summerhal while making his way north to join Jon Arryn. Ned had the furthest to travel so by the time he reached Winterfell, called his banners, and moved south, the fighting at Gulltown and Summerhal were over. Robert moved on the Stoney Sept while Jon Arryn waited for Ned. When they heard Robert was cornered they turned to Hoster Tully for additional help. The new marriage alliances needed to be settled before they could count on Hoster Tully's men.

Robert fought at Gulltown and didn't call his banners until after.  Ned took a fairly round about way to Winterfell. 

[Tucu]

31 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Robert recovered at a brothel in Stoney Sept called the Peach, because after Ned and Jon Arryn's forces were engaged in the fighting, Robert was well enough to come out and fight. The only text that says Robert attended Ned's wedding comes from the World book, which to me is a questionable source. 

If we add to the mix that Cat thought that Lysa married an old man without a heir and the fact that Jon's heir was killed by JonCon we get that the wedding was after the Battle of the Bells. I would not be nice not to invite Ned's brolove

[asongofheresy]

1 hour ago, Feather Crystal said:

Rhaeyns was born in 280, while the attack on Elia by the Kingswood Brotherhood was closer to the tourney at Harrenhal. We know the attack was shortly before the tourney, because Jaime Lannister was first knighted on the field by Ser Arthur Dayne, and then invested into the Kingsguard at the tourney as a reward for his help in disbanding the Kingswood Brotherhood.

Oh okay, since Elia was in bed for six months afterward I thought Rhaenys could be possible too, though I find it weird Elia and Rhaegar immediately had a child - possible I know just weird to me. 

[Melifeather]

6 minutes ago, St Daga said:

Considering my own arguments about going the wrong direction, it does make sense that Ned and Cat married before the Battle of the Bells, even though at this point, there was no reason for Jon Arryn to marry Lysa, since he still had an heir alive. Perhaps Jon married Lysa  not to get an heir, but to help Hoster get her off his hands. Catelyn doesn't seem to think that this is why, but she is becoming very untrustworthy in my mind as far as being a viable source of information.

Perhaps Hoster Tully felt the alliance would be stronger to tie all of the Houses together and not just to Stark? The part about his heir dying is circumstantial evidence - or rather just a coincidence. Jon Arryn would have wanted his own son as an heir, and Lyssa was proven to be fertile - if Hoster had been forthright with him about her previous pregnancy.

7 minutes ago, St Daga said:

Also, how can Dany's birth happen before the siege of Storm's End was lifted, after all we are told that Stannis just missed getting to Dragonstone and capturing she and Viserys. I guess it could be argued that she was born previously, but how much? A great storm is said to have occurred at her birth and smashed the Targaryen fleet.

I initially thought Dany's birth was earlier too, because of the Assault, but Robert's fleet had been wiped out. Stannis had to rebuild a fleet before he could assault Dragonstone. Actually the news that Stannis was rebuilding is probably the news that prompted Willem Darry into action.

8 minutes ago, St Daga said:

Also, I was under the impression that Ned escorted Catelyn and Robb to Winterfell, but perhaps that is not correct.

Maester Luwin escorted Catelyn and Robb.

7 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

Robert fought at Gulltown and didn't call his banners until after.  Ned took a fairly round about way to Winterfell. 

Yes, you are correct about this. So it would appear that Gulltown broke out when Jon Arryn called his banners, splitting loyalist Houses from rebel Houses. Ned leaves just as fighting breaks out, while Robert waits until afterward to leave for Storm's End.

[Melifeather]

15 minutes ago, Tucu said:

If we add to the mix that Cat thought that Lysa married an old man without a heir and the fact that Jon's heir was killed by JonCon we get that the wedding was after the Battle of the Bells. I would not be nice not to invite Ned's brolove

It's true to say that Lyssa married an old man without an heir, because he didn't have any sons or daughters of his own until Robyn was born.

15 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

Oh okay, since Elia was in bed for six months afterward I thought Rhaenys could be possible too, though I find it weird Elia and Rhaegar immediately had a child - possible I know just weird to me. 

I guess Rhaegar spent some of Elia's recovery time in bed with her!    oopsie!