Heresy 214 The Last Heretic

[Melifeather]

10 minutes ago, Tucu said:

The siege was probably lifted a couple of weeks after the sack of KL; Ned departed the following day and the distance is somehow similar from the Trident to KL and from KL to Storm's End. Dany's tale tells us that she was born 9 moons after leaving from Dragonstone but there is a lot of flexibility with this as Viserys was a kid.

Actually, Game of Thrones chapter 3 has Dany saying this:

Quote

  Viserys had been a boy of eight when they fled King’s Landing to escape the advancing armies of the Usurper, but Daenerys had been only a quickening in their mother’s womb.

Definition of quickening:

The first natural sensation of quickening may feel like a light tapping, or the fluttering of a butterfly. These sensations eventually become stronger and more regular as the pregnancy progresses. Sometimes, the first movements are mis-attributed to gas or hunger pangs. Usually, quickening occurs naturally at about the middle of a pregnancy. A woman pregnant for the first time (i.e., a primigravida woman) typically feels fetal movements at about 18–20 weeks, whereas a woman who has been pregnant more than once (i.e., a multipara woman) will typically feel movements around 15–17 weeks.

The definition of quickening means Rhaella was in her second trimester when she fled Kings Landing.

[SirArthur]

16 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

The definition of quickening means Rhaella was in her second trimester when she fled Kings Landing.

So she was pregnant before Jaime was a witness ? Or was that the same event, only 2-3 month before the Trident ?

[Melifeather]

3 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

So she was pregnant before Jaime was a witness ? Or was that the same event, only 2-3 month before the Trident ?

Rhaella could have already been pregnant at the time when Jaime stood outside their door while Aerys raped her.

[Tucu]

56 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Actually, Game of Thrones chapter 3 has Dany saying this:

Definition of quickening:

The first natural sensation of quickening may feel like a light tapping, or the fluttering of a butterfly. These sensations eventually become stronger and more regular as the pregnancy progresses. Sometimes, the first movements are mis-attributed to gas or hunger pangs. Usually, quickening occurs naturally at about the middle of a pregnancy. A woman pregnant for the first time (i.e., a primigravida woman) typically feels fetal movements at about 18–20 weeks, whereas a woman who has been pregnant more than once (i.e., a multipara woman) will typically feel movements around 15–17 weeks.

The definition of quickening means Rhaella was in her second trimester when she fled Kings Landing.

We are deep in the realm of unreliable narrators there. The paragraphs where Dany thinks of "quickening" and being born 9 moons after Rhaella leaving for Dragonstone are in the same block. She is basically remembering the tales told by Viserys. It would be hard to do accurate calculations from this.

[Melifeather]

11 minutes ago, Tucu said:

We are deep in the realm of unreliable narrators there. The paragraphs were Dany thinks of "quickening" and being born 9 moons after Rhaella leaving for Dragonstone are in the same block. She is basically remembering the tales told by Viserys. It would be hard to do accurate calculations from this.

I'll give you that!

[Tucu]

23 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Oh yeah, that's right. I hate it when I forget a detail! It doesn't change my belief that Lyanna was involved with the KWB, and ran after the tourney. Perhaps she was caught by Ser Gregor Clegane's men then? They were one of the groups out searching for the Knight of the Laughing Tree.

I went back and revised my post. Thanks for pointing out my mistake! 

Going back to this. From the chapters that include the KoLT tale and the ToJ dream I interpret that Lyanna's story is one of love, hate and revenge (maybe loyalty too). So I look at the people that Ned hunted down from the Trident to KL to Storm's End and finally Dorne. Not sure what they did to Lyanna, but I am convinced that they were in Lyanna's kill list and Ned and his shadows got to them as part of the promise to her.

[corbon]

2 hours ago, SirArthur said:

I don't know. This all sounds ("couriers raced") as everyone was in haste, yet we have our morning queen fleeing at midnight and waiting a day on the ship. 

Note that the "midnight flight" in Viserys' stories has "the moonlight shimmering on the black ships sails".

I don't see any reason that they had to leave KL at midnight. Just that at some point in the flight, during the voyage, the moon was up during the night and Viserys recalls (or makes up, I don't know, but I'm willing to assume recalls) the shimmering. 

I think it is a mistake to assume they left KL at midnight.

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Jaime seeing her the morning of the day she left does not equate waiting on a ship all day to sail at midnight. It likely took all day to pack and bring belongings to the ship. The report by the maids that she left hooded and cloaked could have been at any time of the day, including afternoon or that evening.

Indeed. Plus the above.

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think there is a significant discrepancy between Jaime’s recollection of Rhaella leaving, and Viserys’ tale told to Dany.

Of course, the simplest explanation, is either that Jaime’s recollection is spotty, or that Viserys may be embellishing the tale a bit to make it sound more exciting.

I’ve also wondered why Rhaella and Viserys would have had to take a midnight flight to Dragonstone at all.  There didn’t appear to be any navy presence from the rebellion at all, until after the siege at Storm’s End was lifted.  So why make a riskier trip at night if they didn’t need to?

The one possibility (although seemingly far flung) is that Rhaella took Viserys and fled Dragonstone at the time of Chelsted’s burning, and before the Trident.  And she fled to escape Aerys, as opposed to Robert’s army.  

Of course that would mean that Jaime’s recollection that Aerys packed the queen off to Dragonstone with Prince Viserys, once word reached the court about the Trident battle, would have to be wrong.

I don't think they did "flee at midnight". I think they took a normal voyage which included at least one night and Viserys is romanticizing (and possibly but not necessarily embellishing) his childhood memories in the storytelling.

[SirArthur]

11 minutes ago, corbon said:

Note that the "midnight flight" in Viserys' stories has "the moonlight shimmering on the black ships sails".

I don't see any reason that they had to leave KL at midnight. Just that at some point in the flight, during the voyage, the moon was up during the night and Viserys recalls (or makes up, I don't know, but I'm willing to assume recalls) the shimmering. 

That's true. What gave me the impression was the wrong chronological order Dany "remembers". 

[JNR]

3 hours ago, Tucu said:

Jamie doesn't specify when Rossart got the position but the world book does

The World book is noncanonical, was written by maesters who weren't there, and is also, we are warned by GRRM in public interviews, not a reliable source of information.

What Jaime says in the canon is:

Quote

Lord Rossart had been the last. His sigil had been a burning torch; an unfortunate choice, given the fate of his predecessor, but the alchemist had been elevated largely because he shared the king's passion for fire.

Quote

Aerys burnt him alive for that, and hung his chain about the neck of Rossart, his favorite pyromancer.

So it certainly doesn't seem that Aerys waited multiple weeks to name Rossart the new Hand.

3 hours ago, SirArthur said:

we were discussing the posibility of two rapes of Rhaella, the first when Darry was present and the second when Dany is supposed to be conceived (when Aerys got the message of the defeat)

It's possible, but far from certain.

3 hours ago, SirArthur said:

And as far as I can tell, Rhaegar was supposed to be in charge between Chelsted and Rossart.

In charge of the host, certainly, but the canon never says Rhaegar was named Hand at any time.

In any case, the larger idea seems to be that if Aerys knocked up Rhaella the night Chelsted burned, then Rhaella could not have had Dany nine months after the Sack, so Dany's story is a lie.

But that story remains a possibility we can't rule out.    Chelsted could have burned, Rhaella could have been raped that night, Rhaegar could have died a week or a week and a half later, Rhaella could have fled with Viserys (with Jaime seeing her that morning), and Rossart could have been killed in the Sack, only two weeks later after Chelsted burned.  In which case, Dany could  have born nine months after that... just as she was told.

The most tricky thing about that scenario, IMO, is one we've pondered in Heresy before without resolution. Which is: how in the world Tywin managed to get a western host all the way across the continent of Westeros, with perfect timing, so as to beat Ned to King's Landing after the Trident, all without Varys having a clue they were coming. 

It really does not make any sense to me at all.  I've suggested that Tywin must have used Starfleet vessels to teleport the host after Rhaegar lost, then a Klingon cloaking device to conceal them.

Still, this is a thing we know beyond any doubt did happen.  Tywin did somehow beat Ned to King's Landing after the Trident, host and all.

[Tucu]

5 minutes ago, JNR said:

The World book is noncanonical, was written by maesters who weren't there, and is also, we are warned by GRRM in public interviews, not a reliable source of information.

What Jaime says in the canon is:

So it certainly doesn't seem that Aerys waited multiple weeks to name Rossart the new Hand.

It's possible, but far from certain.

 

Jamie was giving his 10 minute version of the events from the Battle of the Bells to the Sack of KL. We get no indication from him of how much time passed between events. So the events can be canon, but not their timing.

[corbon]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

That's true. What gave me the impression was the wrong chronological order Dany "remembers". 

Again, these are merely Viserys' stories she is remembering. They may appear to be roughly in chronological order, and thus deceive to inform chronological order (or an apparent mis-order cause dissonance), but there is no reason they need be in chronological order and thus no reason for any dissonance.

[corbon]

1 hour ago, JNR said:

In any case, the larger idea seems to be that if Aerys knocked up Rhaella the night Chelsted burned, then Rhaella could not have had Dany nine months after the Sack, so Dany's story is a lie.

But that story remains a possibility we can't rule out.    Chelsted could have burned, Rhaella could have been raped that night, Rhaegar could have died a week or a week and a half later, Rhaella could have fled with Viserys (with Jaime seeing her that morning), and Rossart could have been killed in the Sack, only two weeks later after Chelsted burned.  In which case, Dany could  have born nine months after that... just as she was told.

Indeed. It is a possibility. It shouldn't be ruled out.
It always appeared to me that the effort to rule it out was motivated, consciously or unconsciously, by personal disagreement with GRRM's statement that Dany and Jon were around 9 months apart in age - because that fact didn't agree with various pet theories.

1 hour ago, JNR said:

The most tricky thing about that scenario, IMO, is one we've pondered in Heresy before without resolution. Which is: how in the world Tywin managed to get a western host all the way across the continent of Westeros, with perfect timing, so as to beat Ned to King's Landing after the Trident, all without Varys having a clue they were coming. 

It really does not make any sense to me at all.  I've suggested that Tywin must have used Starfleet vessels to teleport the host after Rhaegar lost, then a Klingon cloaking device to conceal them.

Still, this is a thing we know beyond any doubt did happen.  Tywin did somehow beat Ned to King's Landing after the Trident, host and all.

I don;t think its tricky at all to resolve. GRRM has specifically told us not to look too closely at timeline issues, and especially scale/distance issues matched to timelines, because he didn't always pay much attention to those and may have made some mistakes.

As to Varys not knowing stuff, first, I don't think Varys is infallible by any stretch. He knows only what his little birds (and other sources) tell him, and in the Red Keep at that time, in a time of war with the Targaryen host marshalling and marching off to the Trident, I don't see it as implausible that Varys, at that time, didn't have any sources that were getting through to him about the location of the Lannister army.
Second, Varys might well have known its whereabouts in advance. We have no other information than that he advised Aerys against opening the gates.

[Brad Stark]

6 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

It is not known how often Aerys raped Rhaella. We do know he was particularly aroused whenever he burnt anyone. But obviously they were having regular sex as indicated by Rhaella's list of miscarriages. Even if she was raped the day she left does not mean that's the day Dany was conceived. I actually find it hard to believe that Robert left Rhaella in peace on Dragonstone for even more than a month, especially when all it would take is to send a detachment via ship.

I disagree.  We have no reason to believe that Rhaella was faithful, and given the way Aerys treated her, she'd have every reason not to be.  We can probably assume they had sex at least twice a year, or Aerys would be more than just suspicious. 

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Brad Stark said:

I disagree.  We have no reason to believe that Rhaella was faithful, and given the way Aerys treated her, she'd have every reason not to be.  We can probably assume they had sex at least twice a year, or Aerys would be more than just suspicious. 

IMO Aerys and Rhaella were determined in their quest to hatch dragons and babies were viewed as dragon “seed”, as in something “sown” to “grow” or hatch a dragon egg. 

[JNR]

6 hours ago, corbon said:

It always appeared to me that the effort to rule it out was motivated, consciously or unconsciously, by personal disagreement with GRRM's statement that Dany and Jon were around 9 months apart in age - because that fact didn't agree with various pet theories.

Well, I do think there's a case to be made for Dany's stories about her birth not being quite accurate... since as you pointed out above, her primary informant is Viserys, who was himself just a small child at the time and as an adult is not a perfect source of truth. 

If it turns out she was born earlier or later than she thinks, and spent some time in a place she doesn't remember now, I won't be shocked.

The best argument IMO in favor of her being born nine moons after their "flight" is the fact that Rhaella and Viserys were said to be fleeing, in Ned's dream, when they went to Dragonstone. The best reason to "fly" (compare to Gandalf's remark: "Fly, you fools!") seems to be that Rhaegar had just gotten his ass kicked.

6 hours ago, corbon said:

I don;t think its tricky at all to resolve. GRRM has specifically told us not to look too closely at timeline issues, and especially scale/distance issues matched to timelines

This is true.  Still, you don't need any calculations to see the timing here. 

Moving an army from the area around Lannisport all the way to King's Landing via the Gold Road is ~1000 miles and would have taken many weeks.

Had Tywin showed up a few days earlier, Rhaegar wouldn't have lost yet.  A few days later and Ned would have taken charge of the city and the Sack would never have been possible.  So the coincidence is pretty impressive.

I guess it's possible he moved his host somewhere close to King's Landing... parked it... and then waited to see what would happen at the Trident.  And  on learning Rhaegar lost, he promptly decided he was on Robert's side.   (This would parallel Walder Frey's strategy.)

Even in that scenario, though, you have to wonder how he could park an army anywhere near King's Landing without it becoming public knowledge.  (This is where cloaking devices come in.)

[SirArthur]

 

5 hours ago, JNR said:

I guess it's possible he moved his host somewhere close to King's Landing... parked it... and then waited to see what would happen at the Trident.  And  on learning Rhaegar lost, he promptly decided he was on Robert's side.   (This would parallel Walder Frey's strategy.)

He would have never be able to outrun Ned, if Jaime wouldn't have killed Aerys. The Red Keep is a fortress in it's own right and should be able to withstand the assault of the few men Tywin selected to take it. At least for a couple of hours until Ned arrives. 

[asongofheresy]

18 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Actually, Game of Thrones chapter 3 has Dany saying this:

Definition of quickening:

The first natural sensation of quickening may feel like a light tapping, or the fluttering of a butterfly. These sensations eventually become stronger and more regular as the pregnancy progresses. Sometimes, the first movements are mis-attributed to gas or hunger pangs. Usually, quickening occurs naturally at about the middle of a pregnancy. A woman pregnant for the first time (i.e., a primigravida woman) typically feels fetal movements at about 18–20 weeks, whereas a woman who has been pregnant more than once (i.e., a multipara woman) will typically feel movements around 15–17 weeks.

The definition of quickening means Rhaella was in her second trimester when she fled Kings Landing.

This quote is really interesting - is it okay if I join the conversation? - I was thinking if it is possible to calculate a timeline using Rhaella's pregnancy to find out when Jon was convinced and born? Assuming Daenerys is child of Rhaella and Aerys and George saying Jon and Daenerys has 8-9 months difference? 

[Melifeather]

4 minutes ago, Jova Snow said:

This quote is really interesting - is it okay if I join the conversation? - I was thinking if it is possible to calculate a timeline using Rhaella's pregnancy to find out when Jon was convinced and born? Assuming Daenerys is child of Rhaella and Aerys and George saying Jon and Daenerys has 8-9 months difference? 

Welcome to Heresy, Jova Snow! We are happy to have you! Feel free to comment on anything you like.

I thought I had found definitive proof that Rhaella was already noticeably pregnant before fleeing, but we have conflicting accounts, so I'm sure that was deliberate on GRRM's part. I was hoping to establish a firmer timeline for Jon's birth by using the nine months age difference too, because I currently believe Jon was conceived at the Harrenhal tourney. Having Rhaella three or more months pregnant when she fled would help support that theory. But the "nine moons" statement pushes it back out again! ARGH! lol

[SirArthur]

16 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

I was hoping to establish a firmer timeline for Jon's birth by using the nine months age difference too, because I currently believe Jon was conceived at the Harrenhal tourney. 

I don't know how that should work.

Harrenhal was in 281
the Battle of the Bells in 283
Connington was replaced after the battle of the Bells with our burning timestamp Chelsted.

I assume this is all a little fucked up, as Robb was supposed to be born in 283 and the time between Harrenhal and the abduction of Lyanna should be accounted for. It is more likely that Lyanna got pregnant during the time of her abduction or later, if you want to make the calculation from Dany -9 moons.

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, SirArthur said:

I don't know how that should work.

Harrenhal was in 281
the Battle of the Bells in 283
Connington was replaced after the battle of the Bells with our burning timestamp Chelsted.

I assume this is all a little fucked up, as Robb was supposed to be born in 283 and the time between Harrenhal and the abduction of Lyanna should be accounted for. It is more likely that Lyanna got pregnant during the time of her abduction or later, if you want to make the calculation from Dany -9 moons.

I guess it depends upon the time of year.

If the tourney was at the end of 281, then his delivery/birthday could be Sept 282 which is the same year Robert’s Rebellion broke out. 

Since I suspect Ashara is Jon’s mother and also the Fisherman’s Daughter, he’d have to be born before Ned marries Catelyn, and 9-10 months before Robb.

For this theory to work, Dany would have to be the same age as Robb - conceived around late 282, pushing both of their birthdays into 283 - June or July.

I realize the wiki has Dany’s birth year as 284, but is that a guess or is it canon?