[SPOILERS] Military matters and population development (including cities)

[Free Northman Reborn]

So my summary to date in terms of regional contributions to the Dance (open to updates to come, as it is all a bit confusing):

North : 10,000

Vale: Promised 10,000 in the end, not sure if they actually arrived yet)

Westerlands : Probably around 10,000 too.

Reach: 20,000, although a lot of small battles may have involved either the same or different men, so maybe 30,000 or more?

Riverlands: Who knows: As in the WOtFK, countless small battles with lots of men dying, and a few larger hosts up to say 6,000 in size. So maybe 20,000 or more in total?

[Lord Varys]

The Vale men come. The Riverlands are tricky. I cannot figure out how many men fought there.

But the way the Riverlanders crushed all their enemies in this war despite being attacked from two sides (KL and the West) really seems to foreshadow to me how they will deal with their enemies in the main series. They weren't ravaged more in the main series than they were during the Dance, which makes it not unlikely that they will only deal with their enemies in the Riverlands but also march against KL (to help seat another Aegon on the throne, say).

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The Vale men come. The Riverlands are tricky. I cannot figure out how many men fought there.

But the way the Riverlanders crushed all their enemies in this war despite being attacked from two sides (KL and the West) really seems to foreshadow to me how they will deal with their enemies in the main series. They weren't ravaged more in the main series than they were during the Dance, which makes it not unlikely that they will only deal with their enemies in the Riverlands but also march against KL (to help seat another Aegon on the throne, say).

Yeah. The Riverlanders must be among the most hardened warriors in Westeros. Every war seems to involve them fighting, dying, persevering and fighting some more.

I have therefore never agreed that they are now a spent force. Instead once they rise up they will be major players in the end game.

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

I have therefore never agreed that they are now a spent force. Instead once they rise up they will be major players in the end game.

They won't marshal all that large armies, of course, but they can (and likely will) field crucial contingents of indeed battle-hardened veterans. First the hostages have to be freed and the Freys and Lannisters be dealt with, then they can also do stuff outside their lands. And there are still houses (like the Mootons, and possibly others who didn't really care all that much about Tywin threatening the Tullys in the west) who might have considerable reserves.

What I said above - about quality men, especially archers - is very well shown in the description of the Kingsroad battle. This could be a template for Aegon's battle in the Kingswood (and perhaps also on the Kingsroad) against the Tyrell army. The Lads defeat Lord Borros with very good, perfectly executed battle tactics and by making use of their superior archers.

If Aegon can combine the archers of the Golden Company with the famed archers from the Marches (assuming they join him) the famed chivalry of France the Reach might die like flies... Not to mention that he has elephants.

As for the Reach in the Dance:

Ormund seems to have subdued/integrated only men from houses more or less on his marching route. That should make up a very small contingent of the overall power of the Reach. That Peake has to disband his army is likely due to both him being Lord Unwin and the fact that the atrocities of Tumbleton have it made impossible for any decent and honorable man - even a man leaning towards the Greens - to actually make common cause with those thugs. Not to mention that the men there really had gotten all out of 'the war' they were fighting, so why bother continuing it?

[Corvo the Crow]

I don't have the book so correct me if I'm wrong; Cregan promises 10000, he marches down with 8 and Roddy Ruin who had set out earlier had 2. Shouldn't this mean North contributed over 10000? Where's the Manderly force? Or were they too insignificant?

[Free Northman Reborn]

23 minutes ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I don't have the book so correct me if I'm wrong; Cregan promises 10000, he marches down with 8 and Roddy Ruin who had set out earlier had 2. Shouldn't this mean North contributed over 10000? Where's the Manderly force? Or were they too insignificant?

Well, I don’t know if Cregan’s force really was 8k. 20k was one extreme, quoted by the somewhat hysterical sounding Eustace, and 8k was the other extreme. So it could have been somewhere inbetween. Say 12k or whatever. It is also stated to be twice the size of the Riverlands army, which was around 6k at last count, before their last major battle. So 10k might also be an option for Cregan’s force.

Still, whether it was 8k or 12k or even 20k (which it clearly wasn’t), the main point to me is that it wasn’t 40-50k, which the hyperbole and hysterics of previous descriptions had made it sound like.

Bottomline, the numbers raised by each kingdom in the Dance were rather low by comparison to either today or to the time of Aegon’s Conquest.

[Corvo the Crow]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well, I don’t know if Cregan’s force really was 8k. 20k was one extreme, quoted by the somewhat hysterical sounding Eustace, and 8k was the other extreme. So it could have been somewhere inbetween. Say 12k or whatever. It is also stated to be twice the size of the Riverlands army, which was around 6k at last count, before their last major battle. So 10k might also be an option for Cregan’s force.

Still, whether it was 8k or 12k or even 20k (which it clearly wasn’t), the main point to me is that it wasn’t 40-50k, which the hyperbole and hysterics of previous descriptions had made it sound like.

Bottomline, the numbers raised by each kingdom in the Dance were rather low by comparison to either today or to the time of Aegon’s Conquest.

Could still be of use though; Though we can't know who left what percentage of their force behind, there could perhaps be somewhat of an average; most lords taking an x percentage of their force or something.

 

One other point I'm interested is if we get any clues as to where some houses are located or who are their lords or vassals, stuff like that. Roxtons, from all the clues we have seen in Princess and Queen, seem to be either Hightower bannermen or located very close to them.

[Ran]

3 hours ago, Corvo the Crow said:

I don't have the book so correct me if I'm wrong; Cregan promises 10000, he marches down with 8 and Roddy Ruin who had set out earlier had 2. Shouldn't this mean North contributed over 10000? Where's the Manderly force? Or were they too insignificant?

Presumably Cregan's force is composed of the levies of various lords.

Re: the North,

It's still 8k. As already established, Munkun was vastly more informed than just about any other chronicler referenced in F&B. Contemporary accounts, records, interviews ... and he himself was in KL before Cregan left, so he's not needing to entirely depend on other people but could see and ask questions in his own time.

Eustace is presented as an extreme, Munkun is being offered as a sober analysis, not the "opposite"  extreme.

[Free Northman Reborn]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

Presumably Cregan's force is composed of the levies of various lords.

Re: the North,

It's still 8k. As already established, Munkun was vastly more informed than just about any other chronicler referenced in F&B. Contemporary accounts, records, interviews ... and he himself was in KL before Cregan left, so he's not needing to entirely depend on other people but could see and ask questions in his own time.

Eustace is presented as an extreme, Munkun is being offered as a sober analysis, not the "opposite"  extreme.

8k would be the same as Jason Lannister’s 8k he marched from the West. And add the Winter Wolves and then it equals the Arryns 10k. 

About 10k per kingdom sounds about right. Not really a big deal as we know all these kingdoms are capable of much more.

What is more telling for me are the numbers from the Conquest and the explicit reference to population numbers outside Dorne increasing significantly after that.

The North could raise at LEAST 30k back then. Even with only 50% growth over the intervening 300 years, 45k is on the table now. 

[The Sleeper]

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The Vale men come. The Riverlands are tricky. I cannot figure out how many men fought there.

But the way the Riverlanders crushed all their enemies in this war despite being attacked from two sides (KL and the West) really seems to foreshadow to me how they will deal with their enemies in the main series. They weren't ravaged more in the main series than they were during the Dance, which makes it not unlikely that they will only deal with their enemies in the Riverlands but also march against KL (to help seat another Aegon on the throne, say).

It does sound plausible, though I would think that with the rise of R'hlor in the Riverlands and Aegon seemingly being ear-marked for the Faith I am more inclined to think that they would be on team Dany. They won't have the time to become a unified force within Aegon's rise to power. 

[Free Northman Reborn]

3 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

It does sound plausible, though I would think that with the rise of R'hlor in the Riverlands and Aegon seemingly being ear-marked for the Faith I am more inclined to think that they would be on team Dany. They won't have the time to become a unified force within Aegon's rise to power. 

They are already on a team. Team Robb. And whoever his heir will be revealed to be.

Even without a will, his current heir is Bran, and then soon to return Rickon. Both of whom happen to be Hoster Tully’s legitimate heirs as well, once Edmure and his unborn son die.

[The Sleeper]

5 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

They are already on a team. Team Robb. And whoever his heir will be revealed to be.

Even without a will, his current heir is Bran, and then soon to return Rickon. Both of whom happen to be Hoster Tully’s legitimate heirs as well, once Edmure and his unborn son die.

Both of whom are believed to be dead. The heir Lady Stoneheart is looking to crown is Arya. The reconstituted Riverlands could well become an independent force. They could also come to an arrangement with another faction. There is however a definite tendency for polarisation across religious lines.

[Free Northman Reborn]

10 minutes ago, The Sleeper said:

Both of whom are believed to be dead. The heir Lady Stoneheart is looking to crown is Arya. The reconstituted Riverlands could well become an independent force. They could also come to an arrangement with another faction. There is however a definite tendency for polarisation across religious lines.

Well let’s see, a Tully grandson, Rickon, ruling Winterfell (with Jon as his regent), a Tully grandson Robert Arryn ruling the Vale with a Tully grandaughter Sansa as his consort, and the same Tully grandson Rickon also being the legitimate surviving heir to Hoster Tully makes for a natural alliance in my book.

That’s even before being the heir of the Young Wolf is considered.

[SeanF]

44 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

8k would be the same as Jason Lannister’s 8k he marched from the West. And add the Winter Wolves and then it equals the Arryns 10k. 

About 10k per kingdom sounds about right. Not really a big deal as we know all these kingdoms are capable of much more.

What is more telling for me are the numbers from the Conquest and the explicit reference to population numbers outside Dorne increasing significantly after that.

The North could raise at LEAST 30k back then. Even with only 50% growth over the intervening 300 years, 45k is on the table now. 

The North sent 18,000 in the War of the Five Kings.

IMHO, the Lannister host would have been depleted by the need to keep men back to fight the Greyjoys.

Also, to add to the number of combatants, the Velaryons must have recruited thousands to man their ships.

[Free Northman Reborn]

4 minutes ago, SeanF said:

The North sent 18,000 in the War of the Five Kings.

IMHO, the Lannister host would have been depleted by the need to keep men back to fight the Greyjoys.

Also, to add to the number of combatants, the Velaryons must have recruited thousands to man their ships.

Not really sure what the intention is with the reference to Robb’s pre-Manderley 18k, in this context.

[The Sleeper]

42 minutes ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Well let’s see, a Tully grandson, Rickon, ruling Winterfell (with Jon as his regent), a Tully grandson Robert Arryn ruling the Vale with a Tully grandaughter Sansa as his consort, and the same Tully grandson Rickon also being the legitimate surviving heir to Hoster Tully makes for a natural alliance in my book.

That’s even before being the heir of the Young Wolf is considered.

The circumstances of the Starks reemerging are all in flux, to say nothing of the various factions involved seeing eye to eye. Meanwhile the Riverlands could well be drawn in the conflict between Dany and Aegon or how it looks to be shaped between R'hlor and the Faith. 

[Bernie Mac]

1 hour ago, Free Northman Reborn said:

Not really sure what the intention is with the reference to Robb’s pre-Manderley 18k, in this context.

The text is unclear on the North's numbers but the quote of 18k came after the Manderly's arrived, not before.  Personally I think Robb may not have included them but someone saying 18k is not incorrect (as of yet)

[Free Northman Reborn]

5 minutes ago, Bernie Mac said:

The text is unclear on the North's numbers but the quote of 18k came after the Manderly's arrived, not before.  Personally I think Robb may not have included them but someone saying 18k is not incorrect (as of yet)

Sorry, the Manderley/ non-Manderley issue was a side point. I meant I didn’t understand the reason for the reference to Robb’s numbers - whatever they were - in this context.

[Lord Varys]

Let's not make this about what the Riverlords will do in the future (although it is quite clear that there are key Targaryen loyalists there - Bonifer Hasty at Harrenhal, the Darrys (with a Targaryen descendant of House Plumm commanding the garrison), the Mootons, etc. - they won't just ignore the fact that Prince Aegon has come). Also note that the murder of the Targaryen children is a crucial and important crime laid at the feet of House Clegane during Sandor's trial. They do care about that.

And if I were undead Cat I'd finally seize power myself, and rule as the corpse queen of Riverrun, never mind that I have - or once had - children, or that there is a weakling brother somewhere whom I may intend to free. I'm beyond mortal affairs now, and I'm craving power to kill, not to follow or uphold mortal laws or values.

But that aside - the Manderly men supporting Rhaenyra are not given a number. So if it were indeed 2,000+8,000 then there would have been some more, both when the first wave of Manderly men came, and then also later when the second wave came.

[Corvo the Crow]

So one thing on Hightowers; it is said here they have raised 5000, but this 5000 surely doesn't include the bannermen(Beesbury and Costayne comes to my mind, perhaps others as well) who at first raised their armies for the blacks and only after being defeated became part of the great southron army, right? So even with lords not contributing all their strength, Hightower lands have well over 5000 men.