Heresy 215 - Hammering Out the Timeline

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

There you go, changed the bolding for you, now I think 15 months works perfectly. 

Heh. That was offered only in response to a question as a (two) potential reason(s) why a character would be apparently strangely placed. It wasn't placed in a timeline as a referenced item as though it was a relevant fact to be accounted for.
And I don't mind you poking back at all. Fair's fair. 

It was more a reference to things like Ned meeting Ashara in the Fingers (?!), Ashara giving birth to Jon 9 months after Harrenhal, Ned fighting the KG at Maegor's Holdfast (?!) and finding Lyanna in the Black Cells (?!).
Some of those are very very out there. Its difficult for a non regular like me (heck, I've been 99% absent from the forums period for most of at least 2 years) to even reference what the heck you are talking about. It would have been a lot easier if you'd referenced textually accurate descriptions first, and maybe added your theorys' references in in brackets or something?

I like visiting Heresy when I come back to the forums because I don't believe I know or 'am right' on everything and its good to hear different points of view and arguments even if I disagree with them. And some of the deeper symbolism or metatextual theories  are interesting, even if I think they (most of them) are entirely crackpot and GRRM's story is clever, but a lot simpler as well. As I said, I don't expect I'm right on everything and these sorts of things don't even begin to occur to me without visiting places where people excel at such things. 

I am often puzzled by basic logic used here though. Apparently 15 months is impossible to be 'about a year old' (heck, we'd refer to a child of 18 months plus as "a year old" often enough) yet a 16 month old child can pass as younger than a 3 month old under close and extended comparison. 
 

Yes, I fully acknowledge that the things you’ve listed above are personal theories. I have said as much when I first proposed the timeline. But the timeline itself is pretty solid if you strip it down to just the known facts that can be calculated mathematically, like Aegon’s earliest birth month. It cannot be any earlier than Jan 282! That’s a fact Jack! This mathematical puzzle is really just one long story problem.

Lyanna went missing in Jan 282 - the very same month when Rhaegar would have been on Dragonstone.

If Aegon was 15 months old at the Sack you’d have Jon Arryn waiting four months to call his banners. (Jan 282 + 15 months = April 283 for the Sack)

Aegon’s earliest birth month of Jan 282 has Elia pregnant at the tourney. The tourney was held Oct or Nov 281. Aegon was born 2-3 months after the tourney. Pushing his birth month later still makes her pregnant at the tourney. 

Let’s say she didn’t know she was pregnant yet. She’d have to be 6-8 weeks along to not know, but that pushes Jon Arryn calling his banners all the way to July-Oct 282 which would be an unusually long delay after Lyanna went missing.

[Lady Rhodes]

@Feather Crystal I 100% agree Aegon was born in Jan 282. You are correct-mathematically it is solid. 

yes I do propose that it took three to four months due to travel times in winter and I think Lyanna’s abduction was January-February 282.  Brandon has to ride to Kings Landing then was imprisoned. Richard was en route south from winterfell with two hundred men for the wedding but went south with all 200. From Stannis’ campaign in Dance, we got a good idea what northern autumn storms look like. What do winter storms look like? I am going to assume that the north has it worse but I bet the south doesn’t fare great. I think by the time you account for travel times in winter, everything aligns.

[Melifeather]

12 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

@Feather Crystal I 100% agree wagon was born in Jan 282.

yes I do propose that it took four months due to travel times in winter. Brandon has to ride to Kings Landing then was imprisoned. Richard was en route south from winterfell with two hundred men for the wedding but went south with all 200. From Stannis’ campaign in Dance, we got a good idea what northern autumn storms look like. What do winter storms look like? I am going to assume that the north has it worse but I bet the south doesn’t fare great. I think by the time you account for travel times in winter, everything aligns.

Brandon was at Riverrun when he heard about Lyanna. That cuts the distance more than half if starting from Winterfell. Riverrun is south of the Neck and not as affected by winter, and warm enough for Brandon and Petyr to duel outdoors, and for Petyr to land in water - not on ice or snow.

[Lady Rhodes]

5 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Brandon was at Riverrun when he heard about Lyanna. That cuts the distance more than half if starting from Winterfell. Riverrun is south of the Neck and not as affected by winter, and warm enough for Brandon and Petyr to duel outdoors, and for Petyr to land in water - not on ice or snow.

Not as affected but still affected. We know from Game of thrones that it is over a month from Kings Landing to Winterfell. I agree he already has two advantages - closer and not as larger of a party. But more adverse weather conditions to be sure. It is at least two weeks. Rickard, no matter how you cut it, took 200 people. That is a large retinue. I postulate Lyanna was beginning of Feb 282, 1 week for Brandon to find out (how did he find out?) two weeks riding...end of Feb beginning of March he is in Kings Landing. A month for Rickard traveling down from the Neck....April seems right

[Melifeather]

2 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Not as affected but still affected. We know from Game of thrones that it is over a month from Kings Landing to Winterfell. I agree he already has two advantages - closer and not as larger of a party. But more adverse weather conditions to be sure. It is at least two weeks. Rickard, no matter how you cut it, took 200 people. That is a large retinue. I postulate Lyanna was beginning of Feb 282, 1 week for Brandon to find out (how did he find out?) two weeks riding...end of Feb beginning of March he is in Kings Landing. A month for Rickard traveling down from the Neck....April seems right

If Jon Arryn didn’t call banners until April, Robert fought with him at Gulltown, then left for Storms End to call banners, took an army and fought three short battles around Summerhall, took captives back to Storms End, then moved his army west to Ashford, then rushed that same army north to Stoney Sept all by December. If travel in the Riverlands was as bad as you say, he shouldn’t have been able to accomplish half that.

[Melifeather]

12 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

If Jon Arryn didn’t call banners until April, Robert fought with him at Gulltown, then left for Storms End to call banners, took an army and fought three short battles around Summerhall, took captives back to Storms End, then moved his army west to Ashford, then rushed that same army north to Stoney Sept all by December. If travel in the Riverlands was as bad as you say, he shouldn’t have been able to accomplish half that.

Actually, Robert wouldn’t get until December to do all that. He’d have to do it in a month, because his defeat at Ashford marks the beginning of the siege on Storms End which lasted close to a year. If Jon Arryn called his banners in April 282, the Sack would be April 283, and the siege lifted shortly after. I’ll be generous and say the siege lifted May 283, so Robert’s defeat at Ashford was May 282. How did Robert accomplish all that in one month if travel was so bad?

[Lady Rhodes]

@Feather Crystal I believe I put my estimates of months in my timeline but I have one to two months to complete each of those things, which seemed reasonable. 

Ah, I went back and checked my own timeline and misspoke here. I don’t have Rickard getting to Kong’s Landing until June-July. I was giving much more generous times. But from July to December, Robert would get to gulltown, Storm end, summerhall and ash ford arriving for Stoney sept in 283. Ned would have from July to December to go to fingers, sisters, white harbor, Winterfell, down to riverrun to meet Arryn and arrange marriage pact, and to Stoney sept for 283 battle of the bells

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

@Feather Crystal I believe I put my estimates of months in my timeline but I have one to two months to complete each of those things, which seemed reasonable. 

Ah, I went back and checked my own timeline and misspoke here. I don’t have Rickard getting to Kong’s Landing until June-July. I was giving much more generous times. But from July to December, Robert would get to gulltown, Storm end, summerhall and ash ford arriving for Stoney sept in 283. Ned would have from July to December to go to fingers, sisters, white harbor, Winterfell, down to riverrun to meet Arryn and arrange marriage pact, and to Stoney sept for 283 battle of the bells

Robert moved really fast, which contradicts your weather delays theory. Plus if Rhaegar was on Dragonstone in Jan 282 how did he manage the distance to Harrenhal faster than Brandon?

The siege of Storms End lasted close to one year as did the Rebellion. The difference between the two depends upon how long after the Sack it took Ned to reach Storms End to lift the siege. Was it one month, two months, or longer?

However long it took Ned to lift the siege that you go with in your timeline, Jon Snow is already at Winterfell before Catelyn and Robb arrive, and according to Catelyn’s memories of the first time she saw Moat Cailin, Ned was with her.

[SirArthur]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

However long it took Ned to lift the siege that you go with in your timeline, Jon Snow is already at Winterfell before Catelyn and Robb arrive, and according to Catelyn’s memories of the first time she saw Moat Cailin, Ned was with her.

Did Ned travel by horse or by ship back from the tower of fan joydom ? The thing is, if he travels by horse and picks up Cat on his way up, then Lyanna's son must have somehow gotten to Winterfell. And that raises/supports the question if Lyanna was the fisherman's daughter. 

[Tucu]

5 hours ago, SirArthur said:

Did Ned travel by horse or by ship back from the tower of fan joydom ? The thing is, if he travels by horse and picks up Cat on his way up, then Lyanna's son must have somehow gotten to Winterfell. And that raises/supports the question if Lyanna was the fisherman's daughter. 

The route is not clear. From Starfall he seems to have gone to KL (where he reconciled with Robert). It is not clear if he visited Riverrun to meet his child (seems likely that he did) and then he probably went back to Winterfell. It is not clear when Cat took Robb to Winterfell or if Ned travelled with them, but several months after the war is plausible.

[Melifeather]

It doesn't seem right to me that the Rebellion would be considered "over" before the siege is lifted. But because of the two time constraints - the Rebellion lasting a year, and the siege of Storms End also lasting about a year - however long it took for Ned to leave Kings Landing and lift the siege is roughly the same time difference for Robert to go from the Eyrie, to Gulltown, to Storm's End, to Summerhal, then back to Storm's End, over to Ashford, and then up to the Stoney Sept...assuming Mace Tyrell got to Storm's End by the time Robert got to Stoney Sept. How the heck did Robert do it?

[Lady Rhodes]

@Feather Crystal I thought about what you posted, and I get what you are saying about distances and time frame.  So, I am adjusting a bit.

Early Jan 282 - Aegon born on Dragonstone with Rhaegar in attendance
Early-Mid Feb 282 - Lyanna disappears
Mid Feb 282 - Brandon finds out and rides to King's Landing
Late Feb - Early March 282 - Brandon arrives in Kings Landing and is arrested.
Early March - Mid April 282 - Rickard finds out and arrives with 200 men in Kings Landing. Executed. Aerys requestes the heads of Robert and Ned. Rebellion officially starts - 1 year time clock begins.
Mid April 282 - December 282
1. Robert gets to Gulltown and the battle of Gulltown; Ned gets to the Fingers, then the Sisters
2. Robert arrives in Storms End; Ned arrives in White Harbor
3. Robert battle of Summerhal; Ned to Winterfell
4. Robert battle of Ashford; Ned travels from Winterfell south to Riverrun to join with Arryn's forces and negotiates with Hoster Tully
5. Robert starts riding north; Ned, Arryn and Tully ride south.
That is 8 1/2 months to achieve those events. I think that is reasonable.
Early Jan 283 - Battle of the bells - Aegon turns 1 - Bells is noted as having been the first battle of the new year. 
Mid Jan 283 - Double wedding in Riverrun. Stays for 2 weeks.
Early Feb 283 - Battle of Trident
Feb - April 283 - Travel to and Sack of King's Landing  - This would make Aegon even closer to a year old. 

What do you think of this revised timeline?
 


 

[Melifeather]

6 hours ago, SirArthur said:

Did Ned travel by horse or by ship back from the tower of fan joydom ? The thing is, if he travels by horse and picks up Cat on his way up, then Lyanna's son must have somehow gotten to Winterfell. And that raises/supports the question if Lyanna was the fisherman's daughter. 

I'm assuming this would not be a satisfactory outcome for R+L=J fans, because Lyanna was supposed to have been found down south in the Princes Past. I refuse to believe that the tower of joy is in the Prince's Past, but even for the sake of this particular theory, Lyanna cannot be rescued when Ned left the Eyrie to call his banners, and then be found down south at the end of the Rebellion.

[Melifeather]

9 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

@Feather Crystal I thought about what you posted, and I get what you are saying about distances and time frame.  So, I am adjusting a bit.

Early Jan 282 - Aegon born on Dragonstone with Rhaegar in attendance
Early-Mid Feb 282 - Lyanna disappears
Mid Feb 282 - Brandon finds out and rides to King's Landing
Late Feb - Early March 282 - Brandon arrives in Kings Landing and is arrested.
Early March - Mid April 282 - Rickard finds out and arrives with 200 men in Kings Landing. Executed. Aerys requestes the heads of Robert and Ned. Rebellion officially starts - 1 year time clock begins.
Mid April 282 - December 282
1. Robert gets to Gulltown and the battle of Gulltown; Ned gets to the Fingers, then the Sisters
2. Robert arrives in Storms End; Ned arrives in White Harbor
3. Robert battle of Summerhal; Ned to Winterfell
4. Robert battle of Ashford; Ned travels from Winterfell south to Riverrun to join with Arryn's forces and negotiates with Hoster Tully
5. Robert starts riding north; Ned, Arryn and Tully ride south.
That is 8 1/2 months to achieve those events. I think that is reasonable.
Early Jan 283 - Battle of the bells - Aegon turns 1 - Bells is noted as having been the first battle of the new year. 
Mid Jan 283 - Double wedding in Riverrun. Stays for 2 weeks.
Early Feb 283 - Battle of Trident
Feb - April 283 - Travel to and Sack of King's Landing  - This would make Aegon even closer to a year old. 

What do you think of this revised timeline?
 


 

There's still the issue of the siege of Storm's End lasting about a year. Robert's escape from Ashford should be close to a month to the same time the siege begins. And then the end of the siege should be about the same month, but a year later. Looks like you have the Battle of Ashford late in the year 282...you didn't propose a month, but then you'd be assuming Ned didn't lift the siege of Storms End until near the end of 283, pushing Ned's arrival to Starfall close to the end of the year.

[Lady Rhodes]

14 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

It doesn't seem right to me that the Rebellion would be considered "over" before the siege is lifted. But because of the two time constraints - the Rebellion lasting a year, and the siege of Storms End also lasting about a year - however long it took for Ned to leave Kings Landing and lift the siege is roughly the same time difference for Robert to go from the Eyrie, to Gulltown, to Storm's End, to Summerhal, then back to Storm's End, over to Ashford, and then up to the Stoney Sept...assuming Mace Tyrell got to Storm's End by the time Robert got to Stoney Sept. How the heck did Robert do it?

I agree with you, but multiple canonical and semi-canonical sources list the Rebellion ending with the Sack and not the siege.  I am leaning towards this being an editing error because for it to be true - Ned took a very wide detour from King's Landing to Storm's End at the end of the war, and it is wonky with Robert's arrival times at the beginning of the war.  If the Battle of the Bells is at the beginning of 283 (and, like I said, the wiki states it is the first battle of 283) then there is a really long time between Ashford and the bells for the siege to start at the end of Ashford and for the siege to last a year.  OR - the siege didn't really last a year. Times are a bit wonky.

[SirArthur]

29 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

 I'm assuming this would not be a satisfactory outcome for R+L=J fans, because Lyanna was supposed to have been found down south in the Princes Past. I refuse to believe that the tower of joy is in the Prince's Past, but even for the sake of this particular theory, Lyanna cannot be rescued when Ned left the Eyrie to call his banners, and then be found down south at the end of the Rebellion.

If Lyanna is rescued in the south, the Ned has to bring Jon to Winterfell, turn around and pick up Cat for her to first see Moat Cailin together with Ned. Unless Cat moved to Winterfell by ship first. But she was in Riverrun during the war.

And then there is the fact, that he only brought back Dustin's Red Stallion. Not his body. Which is not helping in the question why he couldn't carry 2 bodies, if enough horses were available. 

Lyanna's grave is in Winterfell, Dustin's bones are not up in the north. I mean, we have our little milk buddy Ned Dayne to support the southern idea... I don't know how Ned moved Jon in the southern theory to Winterfell, but he should have picked up Cat on the way. But somehow didn't. 

[SirArthur]

19 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I agree with you, but multiple canonical and semi-canonical sources list the Rebellion ending with the Sack and not the siege.  I am leaning towards this being an editing error because for it to be true - Ned took a very wide detour from King's Landing to Storm's End at the end of the war, and it is wonky with Robert's arrival times at the beginning of the war.  If the Battle of the Bells is at the beginning of 283 (and, like I said, the wiki states it is the first battle of 283) then there is a really long time between Ashford and the bells for the siege to start at the end of Ashford and for the siege to last a year.  OR - the siege didn't really last a year. Times are a bit wonky.

The rebellion also didn't end with the fall of Dragonstone. This should be the end date.

[Lady Rhodes]

I briefly posted this, and it is a very, very rough theory that I have not thoroughly researched.  It hinges on a few things:
1. That the tourney of Harrenhal occurs earlier in 281 than we are led to believe.
2. Rhaegar is not a monster, but not a perfect prince, either.
3. Dany is a legitimate Targaryen.
4. R+L=J is true.
5. The God's Eye is very important to the PtwP and the Others.
6. Lyanna is the very pregnant woman in Bran's dream.
7. The House with the Red Door is in Dorne.

Here is my narrative theory:
After the Knight of the Laughing tree episode, Rhaegar finds Lyanna Stark and is intrigued by her.  While he is fond of his wife, he sleeps with Lyanna.
Elia does not know she is pregnant at the Tourney.  He crowns Lyanna as the Queen of Love and Beauty as a "I'm sorry we cannot be together and I took your virtue. There is nothing we can do now." kind of thing.  I think it is possible that she may have been clued in to the PtwP theory by Rhaegar.
Time passes and we get to where Lyanna's disappearance occurs - she is visibly pregnant, but also because I think that part of the prophecy needs her to be on the Isle of Faces.  She gives birth to Jon Snow (Yes, I am aware this makes him quite older than what we are lead to believe.  This whole thing is a little wonky, but it makes him a few months younger than Aegon)  I think she is the very pregnant woman in Bran's vision, bathing in front of a weirwood.
When Rhaegar finds Lyanna, they end up sleeping together again, and she is pregnant again. 

When Rhaella and Viserys are sent to Dragonstone, I think it was a feint.  I don't think they ever went to Dragonstone.  I think they went to Dorne, and I think it is possible they were in the ToJ (maybe Llweyn Martell told them about it? Just a guess)  Rhaegar goes to Dorne with Lyanna and baby Jon Snow, and Rhaegar, Lyanna, Willem Darry, Rhaella, Viserys and Jon are cooped up in a Tower.  Rhaella dies giving birth to another still born baby. When Ned gets to ToJ, with a "Storm" of swords around him, he finds Lyanna dying in childbirth with Dany.  He takes Jon and he gives Dany to Willem Darry to take with Viserys.  Dany is noted as being stormborn, it is a huge part of her identity.  The storm was said to have ripped the stones from Dragonstone - huh, Ned tore down the ToJ... just a few thoughts.

 

[Tucu]

The rebellion probably formally ended with Robert's coronation. From then on they were not longer rebels but the rightful rulers of the 7 Kingdoms.

[Lady Rhodes]

17 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

If Lyanna is rescued in the south, the Ned has to bring Jon to Winterfell, turn around and pick up Cat for her to first see Moat Cailin together with Ned

Cat says she arrived in Winterfell with Ned already there with Jon, I thought.

I always took it to mean that she had seen Moat Cailin before, but the first time she saw it with Ned he explained how formidable it was.

 

12 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

The rebellion also didn't end with the fall of Dragonstone. This should be the end date

Again, I don't disagree. I am using what the wiki states is considered the end times.