Heresy 215 - Hammering Out the Timeline

[corbon]

23 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

I don't think the quote from the books helps very much. Ned has publicly dishonered Cat by accepting Jon as his son. The same way Robert publicly dishonered Cersei when he accepted Edric. The books never speak about this, but Robert did it. 

Yes. But this (edric) is only the same way if Jon is officially younger than Robb. Mya is not a dishonour to Cersei (Robert never denies her) because she happened before Robert and Cersei were betrothed. Edric is explicitly a dishonour to Cersei because he happened after they were married.
The same for Jon.

Cersei doesn't want Mya at court because she is a reminder of who Robert is (still), and all the current dishonours he heaps on her. Not because she is Mya is herself a dishonour to Cersei.

[Melifeather]

5 minutes ago, corbon said:

The weights, no, but weights are barely relevant. There are many more other factors. 
It is completely unthinkable that any 4 month old could pass as older than a 17 month old consistently over time and to people who are familiar with babies, unless there were severe and permanent developmental defects in the older child.  
To claim otherwise demonstrates utter ignorance of babies.

Well, I'm certainly not ignorant of babies. I've had two of my own and I have grandchildren! lol, and my eldest was 20lbs at four months of age and looked like she was a year old.

While Jon and Robb were brought up at Winterfell together, I doubt very much that Catelyn had much to do with Jon as an infant. His wet-nurse Wylla probably kept him away much of the time so as to not annoy the Lady of Winterfell. 

Catelyn's thoughts about Jon going to the Wall was before Catelyn could even worry that Ned would die and Jon could challenge Robb's inheritance, so her natural worry at that time would be the generation after, or rather her grandchildren.

[SirArthur]

Now here is a thought: Lyanna vanished in the Riverlands and never left the Riverlands. She gave birth to Jon before the Trident, but after Bells. Robert then wants to revenge her at the Trident. So Dany would not be 9 month after the sack, but maybe 7-8. 

[SirArthur]

17 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yes. But this (edric) is only the same way if Jon is officially younger than Robb. Mya is not a dishonour to Cersei (Robert never denies her) because she happened before Robert and Cersei were betrothed. Edric is explicitly a dishonour to Cersei because he happened after they were married.
The same for Jon.

Cersei doesn't want Mya at court because she is a reminder of who Robert is (still), and all the current dishonours he heaps on her. Not because she is Mya is herself a dishonour to Cersei.

Edric is younger than Joeffrey. So in public it is the same situation.

edit: We as readers do not know when Stannis married and thus do not know how old Edric is.

[corbon]

4 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Well, I'm certainly not ignorant of babies. I've had two of my own and I have grandchildren! lol, and my eldest was 20lbs at four months of age and looked like she was a year old.

Sorry, I'd rather assume ignorance than the alternatives.

To a casual observer for a few minutes, yes, a baby might seem older than it is.
But not to you, or anyone who saw an actual year old child with your newborn. Or to anyone who observed anything more than casually.

You know this.

4 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

While Jon and Robb were brought up at Winterfell together, I doubt very much that Catelyn had much to do with Jon as an infant. His wet-nurse Wylla probably kept him away much of the time so as to not annoy the Lady of Winterfell. 

Indeed. Yet Ned prays to the godswood for them to grow up close as brothers, so they must, at Ned's bidding, have spent significant time together, whether Catelyn was around or not. And some time together with a sharp-eyed Catelyn, even if not so much.

4 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Catelyn's thoughts about Jon going to the Wall was before Catelyn could even worry that Ned would die and Jon could challenge Robb's inheritance, so her natural worry at that time would be the generation after, or rather her grandchildren.

Not true, as is demonstrated by the second quote. Even after Robb is king and it is a question of Robb's children and grandchildren vs Jon, his children or grandchildren, she still has concerns. And as to the Blackfyre's she references, its not a case of older = better claim - the Blackfyres are unquestionably descended from a younger bastard. 
There is absolutely no question that Jon's children could rank ahead of Rob's children even if Jon is older at this point. 

[corbon]

11 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

Edric is younger than Joeffrey. So in public it is the same situation. 

Yes - but only if Jon is considered to be younger than Robb and thus conceived after Ned's marriage (and thus the dishonour to Cat by Ned or Robert to Cercei with Edric).

If Jon is older, conceived (and born!) before Ned's marriage, then the situation is more like Robert and Mya (although its made more complicated by Mya being a girl vs Jon a boy). Then there is no dishonour to Catelyn/Cersei because Jon/Mya was conceived before their betrothals.
(Cersei just couldn't stand for Mya coming to court, because Robert hasn't changed so Mya's presence would be a constant reminder of his continuing infidelity and her dishonour).

[Brad Stark]

If Jon is older than Rob, there has to be a very good reason Ned would not tell Cat he did not cheat on her.  J=R+L is a good reason, that doesn't mean other reasons aren't possible, but only if they also have a reason Ned would not tell Cat. 

[Frey family reunion]

21 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

If Jon is older than Rob, there has to be a very good reason Ned would not tell Cat he did not cheat on her.  J=R+L is a good reason, that doesn't mean other reasons aren't possible, but only if they also have a reason Ned would not tell Cat. 

Ironically Cat would prefer Ned having cheated on her than Ned having a son who is older than Robb.  Her problem with Jon has always been the danger he posed to her children’s inheritance.  

[Melifeather]

I had to make revisions to my proposed timeline, because I remembered that the Rebellion only lasted a year, so I had to squeeze some of the events closer together, which also moved up Robb's birth. I also had to arrange the siege of Storm's End so that it lasted about one year. 

Winter thaw 281

Oct 281 - Lyanna as Wenda the White Fawn, along with the Kingswood Brotherhood, attacked a pregnant Princess Elia who was carrying a dragon egg for her expected child. Ser Gerold Hightower is injured during the attack, and Lyanna/Wenda escapes and makes off with Merret Frey and the dragon egg. Lord Sumner Crakehall has to ransom Merret back. King Aerys next commands that Ser Arthur Dayne lead a detachment to disband the Kingswood Brotherhood, and Jaime ends up knighted in the field afterward.

Nov 281 - Tourney at Harrenhal, Jaime is invested into the Kingsguard, Rickard Stark makes his marriage alliance with Jon Arryn and promises Lyanna to Robert. Lyanna joins with Howland as the Knight of the Laughing Tree, Rhaegar rides past his now six months pregnant wife, Elia to crown Lyanna Queen of Love and Beauty, which spooks her into thinking Rhaegar knows that she took the dragon egg and helped Howland, so she runs away. Upset with Jaime's investiture and that King Aerys refused to allow Jaime to compete in the tourney, Tywin resigns as Hand.

Dec 281 - Rhaegar and Elia leave for Dragonstone in preparation for Aegon's birth. The delivery nearly killed Elia, and they remained on Dragonstone for several months until she was well enough to travel. 

Year 282

Jan 282 - Lyanna is abducted and raped by Ser Gregor Clegane, brought back to Kings Landing, and thrown in the black cells. King Aerys believes he's got, not only the Knight of the Laughing Tree, but the person responsible for stealing the dragon egg.

Feb 282 - Brandon rushes to Kings Landing, and later that month King Aerys has Brandon and Rickard executed, while Ashara, realizing she’s pregnant, slips away by ship.

Mar 282 - Jon Arryn refuses King Aerys, Arryn banners are called, and Ned leaves the Eyrie. There is fighting near Gulltown, so Ned travels to The Fingers where he encounters Ashara. Ned and Ashara cross the Bite and are seen by Lord Borrel who notices that Ashara is pregnant (4 mos.). Ned and Ashara reach White Harbor. Ned sends ravens from White Harbor to his bannermen. Arryn’s forces take Gulltown, and Robert leaves for Storm’s End to call his banners.

Apr 282 - Benjen receives pledges of support at Winterfell in an earlier parallel to Bran’s reception of Robb’s bannermen. Ned leaves White Harbor, and Jon Arryn leaves Gulltown. The plan is to meet at the ferry near Lord Harroway’s Town. The Manderlys take care of pregnant Ashara. Robert engages the lords around Summerhal, defeating them in three short battles. He returns briefly to Storm’s End with captives, but then leaves again for Ashford. Robert reaches Ashford, loses to Tarly and Tyrell, but manages to escape. Mace Tyrell moves on Storm’s End and begins his siege on Stannis.

May 282 - Jon Connington leaves Kings Landing to chase after Robert.

Jun 282 - Jon Connington catches up to Robert at the Stoney Sept. Ned and Jon Arryn forces had joined at Lord Harroway’s Town, crossed the Trident via ferry, and made their way to Riverrun. There they make a marriage alliance with Hoster Tully, and a double June wedding occurs (Ned, Catelyn, Jon, Lyssa).

July 282 - Two weeks pass after the weddings, Ned’s remaining Northmen arrive, and the combined forces move towards the Stoney Sept. The Battle of the Bells occurs.

Aug 282 - Ashara gives birth to Jon at White Harbor (9 mos. after tourney), Before he left, Ned had convinced Ashara that she should leave Jon with Wylla his wetnurse, while she pretends to be dead in Braavos. The Manderlys later make arrangements to move Wylla and Jon to Winterfell. JonCon is defeated at Stoney Sept and retreats.

Sep 282 - King Aerys takes Connington land, and JonCon goes into exile. King Aerys sends Darry and Selmy to gather remaining loyalists. Rebel forces reorganize and move north of the Trident.

Oct 282 -

Nov 282 - Rhaegar returns with Elia and the children, requests Varys work out the baby swap (Pisswater prince), Tywin ignores Aerys, Aerys becomes afraid and begins planting wildfyre.

Dec 282 - Chelsted discovers wildfyre plot, confronts Aerys and ends up burned. Rossart named Hand.

Year 283

Jan 283 - Rhaegar leaves Kings Landing for the Trident, Elia and the children are taken hostage, and Ser Lewin Martell is sent to take command of 10,000 Dornishmen. Combined loyalist forces move toward the Trident and plan to cross at the Ruby Ford. Tywin moves forces closer to Kings Landing. Later this month is the Battle of the Trident, Rhaegar dies, Robert is injured, surviving loyalists turn and run, and Ned’s van chases them all the way to Kings Landing. The Battle at the Mander occurs next, which was Balon Greyjoy’s weak attempt to gather spoils

Feb 283 - Tywin tricks Aerys with Pycelle’s help into opening the gates, and the Sack of Kings Landing begins. Jaime slays Rossart then Aerys, Ned arrives and sees the city is being sacked, and notes Gregor Clegane and Armory Lorch scaling Maegor’s Holdfast. Ned and his men rush for the tower and fight the three Kingsguard of Hightower, Whent, and Dayne. But he’s too late and comes upon the dead bodies of Elia and her children. Tywin presents the corpses to Robert upon the throne, angering Ned. Ned and Robert fight. Ned later discovers Lyanna in black cells, and he and Robert are reconciled. Ned has Lyanna’s body sent home packed in salt in a barrel. Rhaella crowns Viserys on Dragonstone.

Robert’s Rebellion lasted one year, so time time between Brandon and Rickard’s executions and Rhaegar’s death must be a year apart.

Mar 283 - Siege of Storm’s End lifted (lasting close to a year) Ned leaves for Starfall. Robb Stark is born at Riverrun when Jon Snow is seven months old.

Apr 283 - Stannis begins to rebuild Robert's fleet, Ned arrives at Starfall. Later in the month he begins the long return trip home.

May 283 - Birth of Daenerys on Dragonstone when Jon Snow is nine months old. Rhaella dies. Catelyn brings Robb home to Winterfell where she sees a child old enough to have been conceived at the Harrenhal tourney. Hears castle gossip about Ashara, and confronts Ned shortly after his return home.

Jun 283 -

July 283 -

Aug 283 -

Sep 283 -

Oct 283-

Nov 283 -

Dec 283 - Willem Darry leaves Dragonstone with Dany and Viserys.

Year 284

Jan 284 - Assault on Dragonstone

 

Revisions made Dec 19 to adjust the age of baby Aegon, who was said to have been about a year old during the Sack of Kings Landing.

[SirArthur]

9 hours ago, corbon said:

Yes - but only if Jon is considered to be younger than Robb and thus conceived after Ned's marriage (and thus the dishonour to Cat by Ned or Robert to Cercei with Edric).

If Jon is older, conceived (and born!) before Ned's marriage, then the situation is more like Robert and Mya (although its made more complicated by Mya being a girl vs Jon a boy). Then there is no dishonour to Catelyn/Cersei because Jon/Mya was conceived before their betrothals.
(Cersei just couldn't stand for Mya coming to court, because Robert hasn't changed so Mya's presence would be a constant reminder of his continuing infidelity and her dishonour).

Honor and Dishonor are social concepts. And therefore public concepts. You can hide a dishonor, that happens in many cases. But that is not what Ned did. The point is, that official Jon is younger, so official Ned dishonored Cat. 

The "true" story is not relevant for the concept. The public story is.

[Brad Stark]

Ned's wedding was after the Battle of the Bells 

[Brad Stark]

It is a huge switch to put Aegon's swap when you did.  Varys tells the story as if he personally arranged the swap at the last minute.  You have Rhaegar doing it over a year early. 

[Melifeather]

3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Ned's wedding was after the Battle of the Bells 

I don’t think it was. The text isn’t definitive and could be interpreted either way. The discussion about Jon Arryn’s heir is what’s used to place it after the Battle of the Bells, and i’ve already explained my reasoning up thread.

3 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

It is a huge switch to put Aegon's swap when you did.  Varys tells the story as if he personally arranged the swap at the last minute.  You have Rhaegar doing it over a year early. 

To me it makes sense that Rhaegar request the baby swap after the Harrenhal tourney. He’s just met and talked to supporters and would be making preparations for unseating his father. Getting his heir to safety before any conflict breaks out would be prudent.

[St Daga]

23 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

  On 12/17/2018 at 5:52 PM, St Daga said:

   1 hour ago,  St Daga said: 

Also, I was under the impression that Ned escorted Catelyn and Robb to Winterfell, but perhaps that is not correct.

Maester Luwin escorted Catelyn and Robb.

I am not so sure about that, or I think it's possible that Eddard was with them at the time. When Catelyn and Brynden Blackfish first arrive at Moat Cailin, we hear this:

Quote

 

"Gods have mercy," Ser Brynden exclaimed when he saw what lay before them. "This is Moat Cailin? It's no more than a—"

 

"—death trap," Catelyn finished. "I know how it looks, Uncle. I thought the same the first time I saw it, but Ned assured me that this ruin is more formidable than it seems. The three surviving towers command the causeway from all sides, and any enemy must pass between them. The bogs here are impenetrable, full of quicksands and suckholes and teeming with snakes. To assault any of the towers, an army would need to wade through waist-deep black muck, cross a moat full of lizard-lions, and scale walls slimy with moss, all the while exposing themselves to fire from archers in the other towers." She gave her uncle a grim smile. "And when night falls, there are said to be ghosts, cold vengeful spirits of the north who hunger for southron blood." AGOT-Catelyn VIII

 

Cat says the first time she saw Moat Cailin, Ned assured her that the ruin was formidable. I would think the first time Cat saw Moat Cailin would be when she and Robb were coming north. There is nothing explicit in the text to conform either way, but it makes sense that Ned would escort his wife and heir to their new home himself.

I am not saying Luwin might not have accompanied them, but he might not have, either. Cat does tell us that Luwin delivered all of her children, and she tells us that Robb was born at Riverrun, so Luwin must have been at Riverrun for the delivery. IF Catelyn is to be trusted in this statement. After all, she tells us in her first couple chapters that all the weirwoods were cut down in the south by the Andals, and that the godswood at Riverrun was a place bright and airy, a place of giant redwoods, birds and spicy flowers. She alludes to no weirwood being at Riverrun, but by her final chapter in Game, we see Robb and his northmen praying in front of the weirwood heart tree at Riverrun, the very place she grew up. I find her memories quite questionable. 

Anyway, I think it is possible that Ned himself escorted Cat to Winterfell after the war was over. All we hear from Cat is that Jon and his wet nurse were already at Winterfell when she and Robb arrived, but nothing to indicate if she arrived before, after or with Eddard. But if Ned did escort her north, then it does shift your timeline somewhat, although it would all be after the war had ended.

I guess an argument can be made that when Cat first saw Moat Cailin she thought it was a messy ruin and it was only later that Ned told her that it was quite formidable. As much of the text is, this is also rather vague.

[Brad Stark]

4 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

To me it makes sense that Rhaegar request the baby swap after the Harrenhal tourney. He’s just met and talked to supporters and would be making preparations for unseating his father. Getting his heir to safety before any conflict breaks out would be prudent.

From the SSM, Aegon had Targaryen features and his sister was more Dornish.  It is conceivable that a swap fooled Gregor once, less so that it fooled everyone for a year. 

[St Daga]

8 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

Ned's wedding was after the Battle of the Bells 

 

4 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I don’t think it was. The text isn’t definitive and could be interpreted either way. The discussion about Jon Arryn’s heir is what’s used to place it after the Battle of the Bells, and i’ve already explained my reasoning up thread.

The text of the novels is rather vague on this point. I waver for the wedding being before or after the Battle of the Bells. I used to (three days ago) think it had to be afterwards. That is what the World Book tells us, and whether it's accurate or not, the World Book seems to promote an official timeline of certain events, and the timing of Ned and Cat's wedding is one of them. 

It is possible that Ned agreed to marry Cat via raven, or even in the way that Robb did, by giving his word but never even laying an eye on his perspective bride, but just gathering an army and marching away. Ned might have even had the upper hand with Hoster, saying if you don't march with me, there is no way I am marrying your daughter. Hoster wanted a great alliance for his daughters. Heck, he hoped for Jaime for Lysa, so he definitely had ambition. For some reason, although the text never indicates, I get the impression that Ned didn't love his father-in-law.

A lot of the idea about the timing of the wedding comes down to why Jon Arryn married Lysa? Did he need a proven breeder since his heir had just died (so after the Battle of the Bells) or did he marry her to secure an army and save Hoster the shame of a ruined daughter. Although, she was no longer pregnant and no one would really know if she was a virgin or not, so Lysa still could have found herself a decent husband. Cersei was no virgin (although this was certainly not common knowledge) when she married a king and the world didn't stop turning. You don't make a much better marriage than that, maidenhead or no!

[asongofheresy]

@Feather Crystal since you believe Lyanna could be Wenda and Layna - what would you think about Lyanna being Lanna? She is a white from Peach, the brothel Robert hide during Stony Sept - Battle of Bells, where he had his bastard, Bella. Leslyn, another whore, tells Arya that Bella's mother was Robert's mother but she is never identified - Tom of Sevens also has a son there, is Tom supposed to be Rhaegar here?, is it possible for KB to have ties to Peach? And is Renly's peach is a clue? 

+ I am searching for fawns in Asoiaf and I think the only house with a fawn in their sigil is House Cafferen 

Wend names are more common for Manderlys and there is also a Qartheen Pureblood Wendello (am I surprised? no.) 

[Brad Stark]

2 minutes ago, St Daga said:

 

The text of the novels is rather vague on this point. I waver for the wedding being before or after the Battle of the Bells. I used to (three days ago) think it had to be afterwards. That is what the World Book tells us, and whether it's accurate or not, the World Book seems to promote an official timeline of certain events, and the timing of Ned and Cat's wedding is one of them. 

It is possible that Ned agreed to marry Cat via raven, or even in the way that Robb did, by giving his word but never even laying an eye on his perspective bride, but just gathering an army and marching away. Ned might have even had the upper hand with Hoster, saying if you don't march with me, there is no way I am marrying your daughter. Hoster wanted a great alliance for his daughters. Heck, he hoped for Jaime for Lysa, so he definitely had ambition. For some reason, although the text never indicates, I get the impression that Ned didn't love his father-in-law.

A lot of the idea about the timing of the wedding comes down to why Jon Arryn married Lysa? Did he need a proven breeder since his heir had just died (so after the Battle of the Bells) or did he marry her to secure an army and save Hoster the shame of a ruined daughter. Although, she was no longer pregnant and no one would really know if she was a virgin or not, so Lysa still could have found herself a decent husband. Cersei was no virgin (although this was certainly not common knowledge) when she married a king and the world didn't stop turning. You don't make a much better marriage than that, maidenhead or no!

We are explicitly told Lysa was fertile, we don't know that was the reason for the wedding, but why else include this?  And she is Jon's third wife after the first two did not produce living children.  Which really makes me wonder if her and Peter have a living child we haven't figured out yet. 

And there was another quote about this marriage being the price House Tully paid for support (not the other way around).

If Jon wanted his own child for an heir, this is strange timing.  More likely his heirs death prompted the wedding. 

[St Daga]

4 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

8 hours ago, Brad Stark said:

It is a huge switch to put Aegon's swap when you did.  Varys tells the story as if he personally arranged the swap at the last minute.  You have Rhaegar doing it over a year early. 

To me it makes sense that Rhaegar request the baby swap after the Harrenhal tourney. He’s just met and talked to supporters and would be making preparations for unseating his father. Getting his heir to safety before any conflict breaks out would be prudent.

I guess both things are possible. Rhaegar might have sent his new born son to safety soon after birth, and placed another infant in his place. At a later time, Varys, not knowing this, could have swapped that imposter baby out for the child known as the Pisswater Prince. From one of Oberyn's recollections about how Elia and oohed and awed over a rather ugly baby Tyrion, she seems likely to have been able to love or care for a child who was not her own, and possibly fight Gregor Clegane to save said child, even if she didn't give birth to it. Any child, perhaps!

But Aegon's birth time is confusing. Was Elia pregnant while at Harrenhal for the tourney? It seems unlikely that she was close to her due date and traveling and even more unlikely that she had just given birth and was traveling. Rhaenys's birth laid her up for 6 months. Unless that is a flat out lie? I suppose Elia could have been in a more early stage of her pregnancy at Harrenhal.

Even if Aegon is born 15 months after Rhaenys (6 months of bed rest for Elia and 9 months of pregnancy), Aegon could have been born in 281, possibly on this timeline, then does Elia really leave both her children behind while she attends the Tourney at Harrenhal, and was she even well enough to do so? I suppose it's possible, but there are so many unknowns.

[SirArthur]

39 minutes ago, St Daga said:

A lot of the idea about the timing of the wedding comes down to why Jon Arryn married Lysa? Did he need a proven breeder since his heir had just died (so after the Battle of the Bells) or did he marry her to secure an army and save Hoster the shame of a ruined daughter. Although, she was no longer pregnant and no one would really know if she was a virgin or not, so Lysa still could have found herself a decent husband. Cersei was no virgin (although this was certainly not common knowledge) when she married a king and the world didn't stop turning. You don't make a much better marriage than that, maidenhead or no!

There is also the text where Ned spend two weeks with Cat.