Heresy 215 - Hammering Out the Timeline

[Melifeather]

7 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I am only referencing the Aegon wiki of Ice and Fire page that lists his birth as Late 281 early 282.  I agree with you that early 282 is his birth.  Also, I know we are led to believe that the tourney was held at the end of 281, but why is that? the wiki page only says 281 as far as I can see.

I think the tourney of Harrenhal was earlier.  If we account for it being earlier, then it makes sense for Rhaegar to abduct (I don't believe it was an abduction, but for the sake of linguistic simplicity in discussing, I will stick with the term) in 282. 

Frey Family Reunion posted this in the last Heresy:

  Quote

The False Spring of 281 AC lasted less than two turns. As the year drew to a close, winter returned to Westeros with a vengeance.

So here, it seems pretty evident that Harrenhal was roughly within two months before the end of 281.

[Lady Rhodes]

@Feather Crystal @SirArthur  I get what you are saying. I am going to look into it.  I think we are being led to believe that the Tourney of Harrenhal and the Abduction are closer together than they really are, but I don't think they are a full year apart, either.

[Melifeather]

19 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

That is not what Yandel says, though, exactly.  She was taken the next year, not "a year later".  If the tournament was at the end of 281 (which I don't believe, but for the sake of argument) then she could have been abducted in Jan 282 and it would still be correct.

I agree that the next year is not a year later, and I can agree with the assumption or guess-timation that Lyanna was abducted early in 282. That's actually where I've placed her abduction as well, because a whole shit-ton of stuff happens in 282 leading into the Battle of the Bells. That is why it doesn't make any sense to push her abduction late into 282, nor for moving around Aegon VI's birthday.

18 minutes ago, SirArthur said:

The tourney was at the end of the year, at least after the defeat of the Kingswood Brotherhood. 5 KGs fought in against them, later Whent went to his brother and convinced him to announce the tourney. May is far too early, most people think Nov/Dec. There is some evidence with the coming of a new year and some birthday, but I don't know the quotes from my head.

Indeed! The events leading into the capture of the Kingswood Brotherhood are shortly before the tourney. Jaime was knighted in the field for his part, and then raised to the Kingsguard afterward during the tourney.

Edited to add: Elia was attacked prior to the tourney, she was at the tourney, and she was back at Kings Landing for the Sack. The timing of Aegon VI's birth on Dragonstone only fits in early 282 so that she's healthy enough to travel.

[Lady Rhodes]

By differing accounts, the announcement for the tourney of Harrenhal is late 280 or early 281.  The attack on Elia by the Kingswood occurs during 280, which is when Gerold Hightower was injured.  That is when the decision was made to rid the realm of the Brotherhood, and that campaign started in 280.  There is dispute on when Ser Harlan of the Kingsguard died, before or after the Kingswood brotherhood was disbanded in 281. Thus, I believe that the Brotherhood was taken out fairly early in 281.  Also, 281 is dubbed the “year of the false spring” which makes us believe that the fair weather lasted more than a couple of months.

When Jaime was traveling from the Kingswood back to Casterly Rock, Cersei hatched the plan to put Jaime on the Kingsguard.  A month later, when Jaime was in Casterly Rock, he received word summoning him to Harrenhal for the tournament to be knighted. All of this indicates a May-July Tournament.

28 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

The events leading into the capture of the Kingswood Brotherhood are shortly before the tourney

I suppose this depends on your definition of shortly, but Jaime was knighted, came to King's Landing and consented to the plan hatched by Cersei, returned to Casterly Rock, and then a month later was summoned to Harrenhal.  The defeat of the KWB and the Tourney of Harrenhal are a few months a part.

I am not saying that you all are wrong about the tourney occurring at the end of 281, but I am literally searching all of my resources, the wiki page, google, the world of ice and fire app, and Feast (rereading currently, its in my purse) and I cannot find any indication other than in occurred in 281.

[Brad Stark]

After Elia gave birth to Rhaenys, Rhaegar was told she'd never again have another child.  Rhaegar knew he needed another child to fulfill the prophecy, which is why he started courting Lyanna.  Now, regardless of if he raped her or they both fell in love, this puts timelines into perspective.  Rhaenys had to be born before the tournament. 

[Melifeather]

54 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

By differing accounts, the announcement for the tourney of Harrenhal is late 280 or early 281.  The attack on Elia by the Kingswood occurs during 280, which is when Gerold Hightower was injured.  That is when the decision was made to rid the realm of the Brotherhood, and that campaign started in 280.  There is dispute on when Ser Harlan of the Kingsguard died, before or after the Kingswood brotherhood was disbanded in 281. Thus, I believe that the Brotherhood was taken out fairly early in 281.  Also, 281 is dubbed the “year of the false spring” which makes us believe that the fair weather lasted more than a couple of months.

When Jaime was traveling from the Kingswood back to Casterly Rock, Cersei hatched the plan to put Jaime on the Kingsguard.  A month later, when Jaime was in Casterly Rock, he received word summoning him to Harrenhal for the tournament to be knighted. All of this indicates a May-July Tournament.

I suppose this depends on your definition of shortly, but Jaime was knighted, came to King's Landing and consented to the plan hatched by Cersei, returned to Casterly Rock, and then a month later was summoned to Harrenhal.  The defeat of the KWB and the Tourney of Harrenhal are a few months a part.

I am not saying that you all are wrong about the tourney occurring at the end of 281, but I am literally searching all of my resources, the wiki page, google, the world of ice and fire app, and Feast (rereading currently, its in my purse) and I cannot find any indication other than in occurred in 281.

Hightower was injured during the attack on Elia. I believe he took an arrow into his hand, which doesn't sound like a severe injury, unless it was to his sword hand. In any case Aerys sent out a detachment immediately afterward and placed Arthur Dayne in charge, because Gerold Hightower's hand was still healing. So the two encounters with the Kingswood Brotherhood couldn't have been too far apart. It would be helpful if you could provide the text that indicates Jaime went back to Casterly Rock after he was knighted and then stayed there a month before the tourney. Not saying it's not possible. I just like any bit of information that helps tighten up the timeline, because working backwards from the tourney occurring a couple months before the end of 281, Jaime would have been at Casterly Rock in say, October 281, which would place Arthur's detachment in perhaps September 281. And since he left while Hightower's hand was still healing, the attack on Elia was likely in September 281 also.

Edited to add: If Elia was traveling in 281, then this is obviously after she was well enough to travel, so at least six months after the birth of Rhaenys.

[Melifeather]

15 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

After Elia gave birth to Rhaenys, Rhaegar was told she'd never again have another child.  Rhaegar knew he needed another child to fulfill the prophecy, which is why he started courting Lyanna.  Now, regardless of if he raped her or they both fell in love, this puts timelines into perspective.  Rhaenys had to be born before the tournament. 

You've got that mixed up. The maesters thought after Aegon that she shouldn't have any additional children.

Of course Rhaenys was born before the tourney. Rhaegar and Elia were married in 280. Rhaenys was born nine months later still in 280. She needed six months to recover, so now we're into the middle of 281 before she would be healthy enough to conceive Aegon, pushing (har!) his birth into 282.

[Melifeather]

Lets put Elia's marriage and children into perspective by using the earliest dates possible.

Jan 280 - Rhaegar and Elia marry

Oct 280 - Rhaenys is born

April 281 - Elia healthy enough to travel, and healthy enough to conceive Aegon VI.

Was Elia attacked on her return trip from Dragonstone after the birth of Rhaenys? 

Assuming Elia was also now pregnant in April 281, and the tourney of Harrenhal occurred November 281, Elia would have been seven months pregnant with Aegon.

[Lady Rhodes]

6 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Lets put Elia's marriage and children into perspective by using the earliest dates possible.

Jan 280 - Rhaegar and Elia marry

Oct 280 - Rhaenys is born

April 281 - Elia healthy enough to travel, and healthy enough to conceive Aegon VI.

Was Elia attacked on her return trip from Dragonstone after the birth of Rhaenys? 

Assuming Elia was also now pregnant in April 281, and the tourney of Harrenhal occurred November 281, Elia would have been seven months pregnant with Aegon.

I actually agree with a good part of what you have here, except for the tournament. I have looked high and low and I cannot find anything that states that it occurred in anything other than 281.  I am still looking though!

Re: text about Jaime and KWB - Storm of Sword, chapter 11, Jaime - He is with Brienne and Cleos, reflecting on how he became a Kingsguard. also noted on his A wiki of ice and fire page on this website.

Here is my updated timeline with notes:
 

Spoiler

1. Elia and Rhaegar's betrothal in 279
2. In 280, Elia is attacked by Kingswood Brotherhood.  It is noted that she is attacked when she is coming from the south.  My guess is that this happened when she was arriving in Kings Landing from Dorne for her wedding.
3. Elia and Rhaegar are married. (280)
4. Kingsguard goes to attack
5. Announcement of the Tournament of Harrenhal
6. Rhaenys is born in late 280.  (5 and 6 could be switched) I am guessing November 280.  Elia abed for 6 months
7, Early 281 KWB defeated.
8. Returing from the Kingswood, Jaime stops in King's Landing en route to Casterly Rock to see Cersei.  Hatches plan to put him on the Kingsguard.
9. A month passes between Jaime in King's Landing and the arrival of a raven to Casterly Rock (where he now is) and he gets his orders to attend the tourney of Harrenhal to don the white cloak.
10. Rhaegar and Elia conceive Aegon
11. Tournament of Harrenhal - May - June 281
12. GAP - I think we need to concentrate on what happened in this gap.  I know some people don't agree with me on the time in the year that the tourney occurred, but the more I look and the less information that I find, the more I am convinced that we have been deliberately misled as to the time between the tournament and Lyanna's abduction/disappearance. 
13. Aegon is born in Jan 282. Rhaegar has the whole "there must be one more"   By this point - WINTER IS BACK!  Travel times are going to take a lot longer now. I am thinking about the march that Stannis is undertaking in the North during Dance and that is considered an autumn kiss for the North.  Granted, the south probably won't have it as bad, but it is also winter during the rebellion and not autumn.  That is my logic.
14. Lyanna disappears in Jan-Feb 282 - if we take the whole gap in time between tournament and abduction to be true - why was Lyanna near Harrenhal?
15. Brandon finds out and goes to Kings Landing - imprisoned. (Mar-May 282)
16. Rickard goes to King's Landing - executed.  (May-July 282)
17. Aerys demands Ned and Robert's heads - OFFICIAL START TO REBELLION AND 1 YEAR CLOCK  (May-July 282)
18. Robert goes to Gulltown - Ned to the Fingers (July to Aug 282)
19. Robert fights Summerhall - Ned gets to the Sisters, White Harbor (Sept-Nov 282)
20. Robert fights at Ashford - Ned gets to Winterfell and the Riverrun with Jon Arryn to secure Hoster Tully - this is at the end of 282 because..
21. Battle of the Bells - which is considered the first battle of 283.
22. Wedding in Riverrun - Robert is healing from the battle of the Bells.
23. Battle of the Trident - Robert declares his intent for throne
23. Sack of  Kings Landing - END 1 YEAR  I estimate Aegon to be about 15 months, a little over a year.

 

[corbon]

23 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Here is my updated timeline with notes:
 

  Hide contents

1. Elia and Rhaegar's betrothal in 279
2. In 280, Elia is attacked by Kingswood Brotherhood.  It is noted that she is attacked when she is coming from the south.  My guess is that this happened when she was arriving in Kings Landing from Dorne for her wedding.
3. Elia and Rhaegar are married. (280)
4. Kingsguard goes to attack
5. Announcement of the Tournament of Harrenhal
6. Rhaenys is born in late 280.  (5 and 6 could be switched) I am guessing November 280.  Elia abed for 6 months
7, Early 281 KWB defeated.
8. Returing from the Kingswood, Jaime stops in King's Landing en route to Casterly Rock to see Cersei.  Hatches plan to put him on the Kingsguard.
9. A month passes between Jaime in King's Landing and the arrival of a raven to Casterly Rock (where he now is) and he gets his orders to attend the tourney of Harrenhal to don the white cloak.
10. Rhaegar and Elia conceive Aegon
11. Tournament of Harrenhal - May - June 281
12. GAP - I think we need to concentrate on what happened in this gap.  I know some people don't agree with me on the time in the year that the tourney occurred, but the more I look and the less information that I find, the more I am convinced that we have been deliberately misled as to the time between the tournament and Lyanna's abduction/disappearance. 
13. Aegon is born in Jan 282. Rhaegar has the whole "there must be one more"   By this point - WINTER IS BACK!  Travel times are going to take a lot longer now. I am thinking about the march that Stannis is undertaking in the North during Dance and that is considered an autumn kiss for the North.  Granted, the south probably won't have it as bad, but it is also winter during the rebellion and not autumn.  That is my logic.
14. Lyanna disappears in Jan-Feb 282 - if we take the whole gap in time between tournament and abduction to be true - why was Lyanna near Harrenhal?
15. Brandon finds out and goes to Kings Landing - imprisoned. (Mar-May 282)
16. Rickard goes to King's Landing - executed.  (May-July 282)
17. Aerys demands Ned and Robert's heads - OFFICIAL START TO REBELLION AND 1 YEAR CLOCK  (May-July 282)
18. Robert goes to Gulltown - Ned to the Fingers (July to Aug 282)
19. Robert fights Summerhall - Ned gets to the Sisters, White Harbor (Sept-Nov 282)
20. Robert fights at Ashford - Ned gets to Winterfell and the Riverrun with Jon Arryn to secure Hoster Tully - this is at the end of 282 because..
21. Battle of the Bells - which is considered the first battle of 283.
22. Wedding in Riverrun - Robert is healing from the battle of the Bells.
23. Battle of the Trident - Robert declares his intent for throne
23. Sack of  Kings Landing - END 1 YEAR  I estimate Aegon to be about 15 months, a little over a year.

 

This is much better IMO. It helps when the text is observed more closely instead of pet theories.

14. Lyanna is betrothed to Robert. She's going to be a major southron Lady. But in Winterfell she has no mother or sisters, and is a rather wild tomboy. It seems quite reasonable for Rickard to leave her in the south after Harrenhal, perhaps with Hoster's sister-in-law's family, the Whents. We know Walter Whent had a daughter perhaps a year or three older than Lyanna who could be a good roll model and companion.
Kind of like a bit of 'finishing school' perhaps. Not quite 'fostering', but a reduced form of the same idea.
We don't know this, but it does explain why she is still in the south and near Harrenhal.
A similar idea is that she may have toured through parts of the Stormlands since Harrenhal Tourney, learning the families, characters, histories and behaviours expected of her as the future Lady Baratheon, and been heading back to Riverrun for Brandon's wedding. Again, no real data points to point to this, its just a potential explanation why she might have been in the area at the time.

23. I think 15 months is close enough to 'a year old' to fit GRRM's likely casual language.

[Lady Rhodes]

13 minutes ago, corbon said:

This is much better IMO. It helps when the text is observed more closely instead of pet theories.

14. Lyanna is betrothed to Robert. She's going to be a major southron Lady. But in Winterfell she has no mother or sisters, and is a rather wild tomboy. It seems quite reasonable for Rickard to leave her in the south after Harrenhal, perhaps with Hoster's sister-in-law's family, the Whents. We know Walter Whent had a daughter perhaps a year or three older than Lyanna who could be a good roll model and companion.
Kind of like a bit of 'finishing school' perhaps. Not quite 'fostering', but a reduced form of the same idea.
We don't know this, but it does explain why she is still in the south and near Harrenhal.
A similar idea is that she may have toured through parts of the Stormlands since Harrenhal Tourney, learning the families, characters, histories and behaviours expected of her as the future Lady Baratheon, and been heading back to Riverrun for Brandon's wedding. Again, no real data points to point to this, its just a potential explanation why she might have been in the area at the time.

23. I think 15 months is close enough to 'a year old' to fit GRRM's likely casual language.

Thank you! I have another thought as well that verges tin foil but I don’t have time to type right now. Hopefully tonight

[SirArthur]

57 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

14. Lyanna disappears in Jan-Feb 282 - if we take the whole gap in time between tournament and abduction to be true - why was Lyanna near Harrenhal?

From a logical standpoint her next step would be to travel to the wedding in Riverrun. And we know from the text, that she knew Robert, so I would assume she was en route from the Vale, the question is more why without Ned.

Quote

Lyanna had only been sixteen, a child-woman of surpassing loveliness. Ned had loved her with all his heart. Robert had loved her even more. She was to have been his bride.

Quote

"Robert will never keep to one bed," Lyanna had told him at Winterfell, on the night long ago when their father had promised her hand to the young Lord of Storm's End. "I hear he has gotten a child on some girl in the Vale." Ned had held the babe in his arms; he could scarcely deny her, nor would he lie to his sister, but he had assured her that what Robert did before their betrothal was of no matter, that he was a good man and true who would love her with all his heart. Lyanna had only smiled. "Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a man's nature."

a few things:

-Lyanna knew Robert before her promise (and knew him well to make such a statement)

-Lyanna was promised after a bastard was already born. So the betrothal must have been in 279 or later. (after Mya Stone was born)

-the Betrothal is at a very interesting date most likely after Rhaegar decided. Rhaegar could choose between 4 brides. (Lyanna, Cersei, Elia, Cat).

 

edit: Many readers think there is a marriage conspiracy going on, I simply think the left over brides had to be married and Brandon, Jaime, Robert were available. And Tywin got the bad end of the deal.

 

[Melifeather]

1 hour ago, Lady Rhodes said:

I actually agree with a good part of what you have here, except for the tournament. I have looked high and low and I cannot find anything that states that it occurred in anything other than 281.  I am still looking though!

Re: text about Jaime and KWB - Storm of Sword, chapter 11, Jaime - He is with Brienne and Cleos, reflecting on how he became a Kingsguard. also noted on his A wiki of ice and fire page on this website.

Here is my updated timeline with notes:
 

  Hide contents

1. Elia and Rhaegar's betrothal in 279
2. In 280, Elia is attacked by Kingswood Brotherhood.  It is noted that she is attacked when she is coming from the south.  My guess is that this happened when she was arriving in Kings Landing from Dorne for her wedding.
3. Elia and Rhaegar are married. (280)
4. Kingsguard goes to attack
5. Announcement of the Tournament of Harrenhal
6. Rhaenys is born in late 280.  (5 and 6 could be switched) I am guessing November 280.  Elia abed for 6 months
7, Early 281 KWB defeated.
8. Returing from the Kingswood, Jaime stops in King's Landing en route to Casterly Rock to see Cersei.  Hatches plan to put him on the Kingsguard.
9. A month passes between Jaime in King's Landing and the arrival of a raven to Casterly Rock (where he now is) and he gets his orders to attend the tourney of Harrenhal to don the white cloak.
10. Rhaegar and Elia conceive Aegon
11. Tournament of Harrenhal - May - June 281
12. GAP - I think we need to concentrate on what happened in this gap.  I know some people don't agree with me on the time in the year that the tourney occurred, but the more I look and the less information that I find, the more I am convinced that we have been deliberately misled as to the time between the tournament and Lyanna's abduction/disappearance. 
13. Aegon is born in Jan 282. Rhaegar has the whole "there must be one more"   By this point - WINTER IS BACK!  Travel times are going to take a lot longer now. I am thinking about the march that Stannis is undertaking in the North during Dance and that is considered an autumn kiss for the North.  Granted, the south probably won't have it as bad, but it is also winter during the rebellion and not autumn.  That is my logic.
14. Lyanna disappears in Jan-Feb 282 - if we take the whole gap in time between tournament and abduction to be true - why was Lyanna near Harrenhal?
15. Brandon finds out and goes to Kings Landing - imprisoned. (Mar-May 282)
16. Rickard goes to King's Landing - executed.  (May-July 282)
17. Aerys demands Ned and Robert's heads - OFFICIAL START TO REBELLION AND 1 YEAR CLOCK  (May-July 282)
18. Robert goes to Gulltown - Ned to the Fingers (July to Aug 282)
19. Robert fights Summerhall - Ned gets to the Sisters, White Harbor (Sept-Nov 282)
20. Robert fights at Ashford - Ned gets to Winterfell and the Riverrun with Jon Arryn to secure Hoster Tully - this is at the end of 282 because..
21. Battle of the Bells - which is considered the first battle of 283.
22. Wedding in Riverrun - Robert is healing from the battle of the Bells.
23. Battle of the Trident - Robert declares his intent for throne
23. Sack of  Kings Landing - END 1 YEAR  I estimate Aegon to be about 15 months, a little over a year.

 

 

You are forgetting that GRRM said that Aegon was about a year old during the Sack when his head was dashed against the wall by Gregor, so redo that timeline!

 

35 minutes ago, corbon said:

This is much better IMO. It helps when the text is observed more closely instead of pet theories.

14. Lyanna is betrothed to Robert. She's going to be a major southron Lady. But in Winterfell she has no mother or sisters, and is a rather wild tomboy. It seems quite reasonable for Rickard to leave her in the south after Harrenhal, perhaps with Hoster's sister-in-law's family, the Whents. We know Walter Whent had a daughter perhaps a year or three older than Lyanna who could be a good roll model and companion.
Kind of like a bit of 'finishing school' perhaps. Not quite 'fostering', but a reduced form of the same idea.
We don't know this, but it does explain why she is still in the south and near Harrenhal.
A similar idea is that she may have toured through parts of the Stormlands since Harrenhal Tourney, learning the families, characters, histories and behaviours expected of her as the future Lady Baratheon, and been heading back to Riverrun for Brandon's wedding. Again, no real data points to point to this, its just a potential explanation why she might have been in the area at the time.

23. I think 15 months is close enough to 'a year old' to fit GRRM's likely casual language.

Pet theories? You mean your preferred theory? 

With regards to your theory about Lyanna fostering with the Whents...what happened to observing the text more closely instead of pet theories?   OK, I'll stop poking at you for now. That was payback for your accusation that I'm not sticking to the text.

I feel that I'm scrupulously sticking to the facts with my timeline of specific events, like placing the tourney of Harrenhal two months before the end of 281, keeping the Rebellion one year long. Keeping the timing of the siege of Storms End at about one year long. Estimating Aegon's conception by making sure it matches up with him being about a year old at the time of the Sack. Not to mention the impossibility of him being 15 months old at the Sack. Do the math from Rhaeyns birth in 280 with a six month long recovery before she can conceive again. Keeping the Battle of the Bells to 282 - it may have stretched into 283, but it definitely began in 282. 

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Lets put Elia's marriage and children into perspective by using the earliest dates possible.

Jan 280 - Rhaegar and Elia marry

Oct 280 - Rhaenys is born

April 281 - Elia healthy enough to travel, and healthy enough to conceive Aegon VI.

Was Elia attacked on her return trip from Dragonstone after the birth of Rhaenys? 

Assuming Elia was also now pregnant in April 281, and the tourney of Harrenhal occurred November 281, Elia would have been seven months pregnant with Aegon.

Aegon VI was born in 282. Do the math. If Rhaegar and Elia married in January of 280 and conceived Rhaenys on their wedding night, Rhaenys would've been born in October of 280. Give the lady a six month rest and it's now April 281. If she became pregnant with Aegon in April of 281, his birthday would be January 282 which would be two months after the tourney at Harrenhal. In order to be a year old at the Sack, the Sack would need to occur January 283 - all well and good, except now you have Brandon and Rickard's executions occurring in January 282, which really puts the squeeze on for Lyanna to go missing at the beginning of the new year, have Brandon ride to Kings Landing, and then have Rickard make the month's long ride down from Winterfell. Oh, and have Jon Arryn call his banners. All by the end of January 282.

[Lady Rhodes]

55 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

You are forgetting that GRRM said that Aegon was about a year old during the Sack when his head was dashed against the wall by Gregor, so redo that timeline!

 

Pet theories? You mean your preferred theory? 

With regards to your theory about Lyanna fostering with the Whents...what happened to observing the text more closely instead of pet theories?   OK, I'll stop poking at you for now. That was payback for your accusation that I'm not sticking to the text.

I feel that I'm scrupulously sticking to the facts with my timeline of specific events, like placing the tourney of Harrenhal two months before the end of 281, keeping the Rebellion one year long. Keeping the timing of the siege of Storms End at about one year long. Estimating Aegon's conception by making sure it matches up with him being about a year old at the time of the Sack. Not to mention the impossibility of him being 15 months old at the Sack. Do the math from Rhaeyns birth in 280 with a six month long recovery before she can conceive again. Keeping the Battle of the Bells to 282 - it may have stretched into 283, but it definitely began in 282. 

A wiki of ice and fire clearly states it the battle of the bells occurred in 283 and 15 months old at the sack of kings landing totally fits. He is born Jan 282 the battle of the bells occurs early 283, then the wedding in riverrun, then the trident and then the sack of kings landing. 15 months is close enough to a year old to hold true

[Lady Rhodes]

My odd ball theory - Lyanna was pregnant in the Gods eye and she is the pregnant woman in Bran vision. 

[Lady Rhodes]

48 minutes ago, Feather Crystal said:

Aegon VI was born in 282. Do the math. If Rhaegar and Elia married in January of 280 and conceived Rhaenys on their wedding night, Rhaenys would've been born in October of 280. Give the lady a six month rest and it's now April 281. If she became pregnant with Aegon in April of 281, his birthday would be January 282 which would be two months after the tourney at Harrenhal. In order to be a year old at the Sack, the Sack would need to occur January 283 - all well and good, except now you have Brandon and Rickard's executions occurring in January 282, which really puts the squeeze on for Lyanna to go missing at the beginning of the new year, have Brandon ride to Kings Landing, and then have Rickard make the month's long ride down from Winterfell. Oh, and have Jon Arryn call his banners. All by the end of January 282.

Haha I think we are going to have to agree to disagree. I think Harrenhal was a lot earlier and I think 15 months is close enough to a year for narrative purposes.

[corbon]

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

 

You are forgetting that GRRM said that Aegon was about a year old during the Sack when his head was dashed against the wall by Gregor, so redo that timeline!

There you go, changed the bolding for you, now I think 15 months works perfectly. 

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Pet theories? You mean your preferred theory? 

With regards to your theory about Lyanna fostering with the Whents...what happened to observing the text more closely instead of pet theories?   OK, I'll stop poking at you for now. That was payback for your accusation that I'm not sticking to the text.

Heh. That was offered only in response to a question as a (two) potential reason(s) why a character would be apparently strangely placed. It wasn't placed in a timeline as a referenced item as though it was a relevant fact to be accounted for.
And I don't mind you poking back at all. Fair's fair. 

2 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

I feel that I'm scrupulously sticking to the facts with my timeline of specific events, like placing the tourney of Harrenhal two months before the end of 281, keeping the Rebellion one year long. Keeping the timing of the siege of Storms End at about one year long. Estimating Aegon's conception by making sure it matches up with him being about a year old at the time of the Sack. Not to mention the impossibility of him being 15 months old at the Sack. Do the math from Rhaeyns birth in 280 with a six month long recovery before she can conceive again. Keeping the Battle of the Bells to 282 - it may have stretched into 283, but it definitely began in 282. 

It was more a reference to things like Ned meeting Ashara in the Fingers (?!), Ashara giving birth to Jon 9 months after Harrenhal, Ned fighting the KG at Maegor's Holdfast (?!) and finding Lyanna in the Black Cells (?!).
Some of those are very very out there. Its difficult for a non regular like me (heck, I've been 99% absent from the forums period for most of at least 2 years) to even reference what the heck you are talking about. It would have been a lot easier if you'd referenced textually accurate descriptions first, and maybe added your theorys' references in in brackets or something?

I like visiting Heresy when I come back to the forums because I don't believe I know or 'am right' on everything and its good to hear different points of view and arguments even if I disagree with them. And some of the deeper symbolism or metatextual theories  are interesting, even if I think they (most of them) are entirely crackpot and GRRM's story is clever, but a lot simpler as well. As I said, I don't expect I'm right on everything and these sorts of things don't even begin to occur to me without visiting places where people excel at such things. 

I am often puzzled by basic logic used here though. Apparently 15 months is impossible to be 'about a year old' (heck, we'd refer to a child of 18 months plus as "a year old" often enough) yet a 16 month old child can pass as younger than a 3 month old under close and extended comparison. 
 

[Tucu]

I will really laugh if Jon comes back via a second life in Alys Karstark and becomes the Lady of Winterfell with the help of House Thenn. All the effort trying to rebuild the timeline of his birth gone up like WW mist. A direwolf is still a direwolf, right?

Quote

The girl smiled in a way that reminded Jon so much of his little sister that it almost broke his heart. “Let him be scared of me.” The snowflakes were melting on her cheeks, but her hair was wrapped in a swirl of lace that Satin had found somewhere, and the snow had begun to collect there, giving her a frosty crown. Her cheeks were flushed and red, and her eyes sparkled.

“Winter’s lady.” Jon squeezed her hand.

 

[Melifeather]

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Haha I think we are going to have to agree to disagree. I think Harrenhal was a lot earlier and I think 15 months is close enough to a year for narrative purposes.

Putting aside the Battle of the Bells. Let’s just focus on Elia, her marriage, and her children, because you can’t move Aegon’s birthday up any earlier than Jan 282. 

Elia’s marriage occurred in 280. Her daughter, Rhaenys was born, also in 280, and was 3 years old when she died in 283. For the ease of counting we are using January 280 as Rhaegar and Elia’s marriage.

Jan 280 + 9 months = Oct 280 for Rhaenys earliest birth date.

Oct 280 + 6 months recovery = April 281 before Elia is both well enough to travel and to conceive.

April 281 + 9 months = Jan 282 for earliest birth month for Aegon. 

Jan 282 = Lyanna abducted. Same time as the as earliest possible birth month for Aegon. Rhaegar is with Elia on Dragonstone. How did he abduct Lyanna from Dragonstone?

Jan 282 + 15 months = April 283. This is your proposed date for the Sack. (I’ve proposed Feb 283) Since the Rebellion lasted a year, your proposal pushes Brandon and Rickard’s execution and Jon Arryn’s refusal to give up Ned and Robert, AND the calling of banners to April 282 - 4 months after Lyanna went missing?