Jump to content
DMC

US Politics: Out in the Cold

Recommended Posts

2 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

I didn't say democrats need to be more xenophobic or nationalistic. That would only alienate Poc and probably cost them the election anyway,   I'm simply saying democrats should endeavor to win these voters back rather rely on the main  strategy they used last election that failed completely. Galvanizing the base is needed. But so is trying to winning back as many of those votes as they can rasher than just hope enough excitement is generated among the base to carry the day. 

Okay, electoral genius, how do you win back a demographic that is driven by racism in large part, and the Republican nominee relentlessly hammers on white racial resentment? What's the message? Lie to them about bringing back coal and steel?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Yeah when  running in a election getting the most votes tend to be the aim man. A good portion of the people who voted for Trump in the last election voted for Obama in 2008, 2012 and voted democratic in the midterms. They can be flipped. It was arrogant to suppose they couldn't be flipped in 2016 and its arrogant to brush them all off as if there no hope to flip them back. 

 

A "good portion" is inaccurate, or not particularly important compared to the people who simply did not vote in crucial areas (or voted for things like Stein or fuckface McLibertarian). I encourage you to look into this, but Obama-Trump voters are not nearly as common as Obama-no one voters. 

Sure, they can be flipped. It's possible. But Obama showed that it's far better to energize people who don't vote typically. You can attempt to flip people who literally thought Trump was a viable candidate AND somehow are still thinking that they might vote for Trump...or you can get people excited about kicking Trump out by putting in someone they like, and not worry about the people who are on the fence about fucking Trump. 

My personal strategy would be to make those who are on the fence about Trump stay the fuck home. Don't worry about earning their vote, just make sure enough of them don't want to vote for Trump and do whatever they like. Focus on getting more new voters out, which are overwhelmingly likely to vote Democrat (given young voters and minority voters turn out far less than old white men do). 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, DanteGabriel said:

Okay, electoral genius, how do you win back a demographic that is driven by racism in large part, and the Republican nominee relentlessly hammers on white racial resentment? What's the message? Lie to them about bringing back coal and steel?

Yep, this. Win back Trump supporters - how, exactly? Again, if these people are on the fence about voting for Trump given all that has happened in the last two years, what are you going to promise them that will make them vote for the other guy? Let's talk about this mythical white working class voter who is actually on the fence about voting for someone other than Trump. Who do they look like? Why are they on the fence? What are they deciding on? 

Because my theory is that there exists no voter like that who is on the fence on voting for Trump AND will actually want to vote for anything a Democrat has to offer. They're either excited to vote for Trump - still - or they strongly disapprove of him and will not vote for him again. But the idea that they're 'well, maybe'? Not for incumbent POTUS, and definitely not for this one. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, DanteGabriel said:

Lie to them about bringing back coal and steel?

Maybe if it's Valyrian steel.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

Win back Trump supporters - how, exactly? Again, if these people are on the fence about voting for Trump given all that has happened in the last two years, what are you going to promise them that will make them vote for the other guy?

To be clear, there will be many voters that voted for Trump in 2016 but will vote for the Democratic candidate in 2020, barring some divine intervention.  And the two largest demographic groups of these, as @Fez pointed out, will be educated and mostly suburban white women, and uneducated white males.  Just, ya know, snapsecond decision - which one would you rather want to convince?  Agreed, it should be the suburban white women.

Edited by DMC
Said 2012 instead of 2020

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
47 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

I think it's quite possible that Roberts switches his vote. He has some respect for precedent and it's widely known that he doesn't want his court to be remembered for massively overturning ingrained laws (although there are obvious counter-examples to this argument).

Yeah, it certainly seems possible. It's also really up in the air and could easily go the other way. For one thing, it does not immediately outlaw abortion in the entire country. He might be perfectly happy to cause abortion to be outlawed in all red states and it would closely match what he did to the Medicaid expansion. It depends on much of the court's reputation he is willing to spend to do this. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, DMC said:

To be clear, there will be many voters that voted for Trump in 2016 but will vote for the Democratic candidate in 2020, barring some divine intervention.  And the two largest demographic groups of these, as @Fez pointed out, will be educated and mostly suburban white women, and uneducated white males.  Just, ya know, snapsecond decision - which one would you rather want to convince?  Agreed, it should be the suburban white women.

Sure - but I suspect very, very strongly that they aren't remotely 'on the fence' with Trump right now. They've already voted for Democrats in 2018, were very motivated to vote for Democrats in 2018, and barring any really stupid shit, will vote for Democrats in 2020. 

My point is that anyone who is part of that mythical white working class who are somehow trying to decide - still - between Trump and whoever are not worth the time to get their vote off the fence and into your camp. Discourage them from voting for Trump, but otherwise give them fuckall. Give those suburban women things, yes! Absolutely - they showed they'll vote for Dems, vote for those policies, and vote for those people. Get more of them, get them enlisted, and get them going.

But people who are in 2018 still unsure? Fuck that noise. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

My point is that anyone who is part of that mythical white working class who are somehow trying to decide - still - between Trump and whoever are not worth the time to get their vote off the fence and into your camp. Discourage them from voting for Trump, but otherwise give them fuckall. Give those suburban women things, yes! Absolutely - they showed they'll vote for Dems, vote for those policies, and vote for those people. Get more of them, get them enlisted, and get them going.

But people who are in 2018 still unsure? Fuck that noise. 

People say this every cycle.  "How stupid are these still undecided people?"  They are very low information.  No reason to write them off.  Also no reason to worry about them for a good while.  They usually vote based on the economy anyway.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, DMC said:

People say this every cycle.  "How stupid are these still undecided people?"  They are very low information.  No reason to write them off.  Also no reason to worry about them for a good while.  They usually vote based on the economy anyway.

No reason to cater to them, which is simply my point. If they do vote, they'll likely vote for the incumbent unless things are Really Bad. 

The other point is that catering to them is going to be very, very hard, and will likely cost you everyone else that might vote for you. Low information white working class people who are thinking Trump is okay - again, what policies and slogans are going to get you their vote? How much racism and sexism are you wanting to go their way? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 minutes ago, Kalbear said:

The other point is that catering to them is going to be very, very hard, and will likely cost you everyone else that might vote for you.

Agreed entirely.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Worth pointing out, the recent WaPo-ABC poll found that only 65% of Republicans want Trump re-nominated in 2020 while 32% want someone else nominated. That 65% number is a fair bit lower than the worst numbers I've seen for Trump's job approval rating among Republicans, which would mean there's some number of Republicans who think Trump has been doing an okay job but still want him off the ballot in 2020. I doubt they'll get their wish, and most will probably vote Trump in the end anyway, but some of them may be persuadable to vote Democratic. Plus there's the newly disapproving Republicans who've soured since December, if they stay soured there's an even better chance of getting some of them

I'm not suggesting the Democratic nominee should cater too hard to get those voters, especially if it involves causing the kind of left-wing voters willing to stay home to prove a point to stay home, but there is some pool of voters there. And if some of them are like the kind of former Republican voters that already flipped in 2018, the moderate suburbanites who's desires for lower taxes has finally been outweighed by their cultural revulsion to Trump, it may not be that hard to swing them in 2020.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The suburban voters that went to Trump are interesting right now because they might vote in the primaries.  The uneducated voters that moved to Trump are not worthwhile to consider until the primaries are over, because they're unlikely to participate.  Everyone can reevaluate at/after the conventions.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Tywin et al. said:

I'm of the opinion that among all of the tier one candidates, Warren is the most likely to lose to Trump. She matches up terribly with him. 

I agree I just don't think she'll be able to handle him. As her DNA test stunt showed which is a pity because she is very solid  on policy.

If Roe vs Wade is overturned I doubt they'd outlaw entirely probably turn it over to the states but you never know Roberts is Catholic there is a decent chance he views abortion as strait up murder. As a small silver lining Roe vs Wade being overturned would boost democratic turnout and lower Republican. A lot of the Republican base is hugely motivated by the abortion issue so taking that away takes away a driving force for the Republicans. Abortion is a lot easier to oppose when the grim consequences of having it banned aren't visible. So the dems might make some gains but at a cost of human suffering.

Edited by Darzin

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

 

1 minute ago, Kalbear said:

Sure - but I suspect very, very strongly that they aren't remotely 'on the fence' with Trump right now. They've already voted for Democrats in 2018, were very motivated to vote for Democrats in 2018, and barring any really stupid shit, will vote for Democrats in 2020. 

My point is that anyone who is part of that mythical white working class who are somehow trying to decide - still - between Trump and whoever are not worth the time to get their vote off the fence and into your camp. Discourage them from voting for Trump, but otherwise give them fuckall. Give those suburban women things, yes! Absolutely - they showed they'll vote for Dems, vote for those policies, and vote for those people. Get more of them, get them enlisted, and get them going.

But people who are in 2018 still unsure? Fuck that noise. 

No. It's in no way more certain that Obama-Trump voters are just going to blindly vote for whoever the democrats put any more than Obama winning was sure to mean Clinton would get the majority of their votes in 2015. Schuette who played Trump's fanboy lost to Whitmer. The democrats would be wise to look at her success not as a given that most of those votes will be theirs but inspiration on how to get them in 2020.  And you're right democrats cant out racist Trump in order to win. That would simply scare off/disgust their base. But there are things that a Democratic nominee should heavily address when touring the districts that flipped in 2016. Things like the opiod epidemic that been a major problem for both rural and suburban whites, outsourcing, and promoting a more "isolationist" model of foreign policy, not excluding people because of their race or religion, but promoting the idea  America not being the world's policeman. These voters can be flipped, enough where winning is more assured without alienating those who make up the democratic base.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Darzin said:

I agree I just don't think she'll be able to handle him. As her DNA test stunt showed which is a pity because she is very solid  on policy.

I've come to the realization I did in fact overestimate her value as a nominee. Still hope Biden runs. Or Sanders doesnt gain too much traction by the time he loses again(though I fear that will be the case and we'll have a repeat of 2020 where calls of rigging are launched on the democratic nominee in question), I really rather not feel the "bern" of a bunch of left-wingers going third-party or not voting out of protest or whatever. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, DMC said:

People say this every cycle.  "How stupid are these still undecided people?"  They are very low information.  No reason to write them off.  Also no reason to worry about them for a good while.  They usually vote based on the economy anyway.

oh well...

one of the other sites I frequent is dedicated to model railroading. These tend to be older sorts, withdrawn from the world at large.  About a year ago, some of them started posting pics of their 'patriotic train' or 'Trump trains' - mostly red, white and blue boxcars, some with Trumps visage on them.  From other conversations with these people, well, their patriots, but their political thought often stops there. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

 

No. It's in no way more certain that Obama-Trump voters are just going to blindly vote for whoever the democrats put any more than Obama winning was sure to mean Clinton would get the majority of their votes in 2015. 

I didn't say they'll vote for whoever. I said they'd almost certainly vote for Trump if they bother voting at all. 

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

The democrats would be wise to look at her success not as a given that most of those votes will be theirs but inspiration on how to get them in 2020. 

The suburban white women, however, are very likely to be a given provided Dems keep doing what they're doing. 

1 minute ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

And you're right democrats cant out racist Trump in order to win. That would simply scare off/disgust their base. But there are things that a Democratic nominee should heavily address when touring the districts that flipped in 2016. Things like the opiod epidemic that been a major problem for both rural and suburban whites, outsourcing, and promoting a more "isolationist" model of foreign policy, not excluding people because of their race or religion, but promoting the idea  America not being the world's policeman. These voters can be flipped, enough where winning is more assured without alienating those who make up the democratic base.  

Okay, let's go with the opioid crisis. These are people who have heard that this is a major issue and have seen absolutely nothing done on it whatsoever, and they still are voting for Trump. The opioid crisis is simply not their biggest concern when voting. I can say that with a lot of certainty, because Clinton had a much better message on it, had a much better policy on it, and they did not care. 

Outsourcing? What does that mean? Which voters voted for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016 who cared most about outsourcing? Surely you have some data backing this up. 

Promoting a more isolationist model of foreign policy - so you're basically saying that they need to be more like Trump. Good luck with that. 

Finally, you say with surety that 'these voters can be flipped'. Based on what? That they went for Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2016? All that tells me is that they didn't have the option of voting for Obama, and voted for who they liked more. Here's the problem you're facing - you're comparing incumbent elections to new elections, and those comparisons don't matter. The vast majority of voters are voting along party lines, period, and the ones who aren't typically vote how they did for the incumbent, especially if they voted for that incumbent. Unless...the economy sucks. 

So no, taking a more Trumpian position isn't going to work, because Trump is already right there. And given the choice between the two, people are going to go with the person who they have experience with provided they don't hate that person. They've already invested in that choice. They'll stay with it.

Which is why it's stupid to cater to them particularly much. Instead, find the people who didn't vote in the last 2016 election (there were a whole lot of them, compared to 2012 and 2008) and get them to vote. Or find the people who voted in 2018 and make sure they vote again in 2020. Those people didn't vote for Trump, don't have the psychological effect of already having 'bought' him, and can be convinced to vote for someone else. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

one of the other sites I frequent is dedicated to model railroading.

Did Bobby Baccalieri ever get shot to death in that site?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

The invisible primary claims another head! 

Eric Garcetti is not running.

 

also the press is gleefully running stories about how tulsi gabbards campaign is already imploding. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, lokisnow said:

The invisible primary claims another head! 

Eric Garcetti is not running.

 

also the press is gleefully running stories about how tulsi gabbards campaign is already imploding. 

Also, looks like Bloomberg is getting into the Democratic primary soon.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.

×