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Black Crow

Heresy 222 vindication

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10 minutes ago, Lady Rhodes said:

After I had posted my comment that you quoted above, I had another thought that I mentioned in a lower portion of the thread.  If Stannis dies during the battle of Winterfell, I could see Selyse giving Shireen to the flames in an attempt to resurrect Stannis.  I predict that he would not resurrect, however.  More likely, I would think that it will bring Jon back.

Where does Selyse's belief in resurrection come from? It's not something the Melisandre seems to promote. However, there have been some interesting thoughts on Shireen's death leading to Jon's rebirth. Also, something about Shireen's greyscale is important, however, and it might play out if she is burned!

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3 hours ago, Feather Crystal said:

Well, don't mistake me - I don't think Stark emotions control the weather. I think greenseers are able to do that. I theorize Bloodraven wanted winter to replay in order to "make" Bran appear - and possibly prevent Rhaegar from receiving the prince that was promised.

I don't know if the seasons will normalize or not. IMO they're tied to the Wall and the magical wards interwoven into it. It's a manipulation of these wards that controls the seasons. As soon as Bloodraven found his "Brandon", he replayed summer for nine years so that Bran would have a safe environment in order to develop and grow up.

While the Starks seem well suited to winter, I think they'd be OK if the seasons would normalize and go to four per year. The seasons don't seem to have much effect upon the Wall. It easily withstood the last nine years of summer. It "weeps" on warm days, but it's massive enough to exist through it. The only way that Wall is coming down is if the magic wards that hold it together were to completely unravel and fall apart, then 700 feet of ice crashing down would certainly be felt the six week ride down to Winterfell. I'd expect the destruction of something that massive to be like a supervolcano and reach out as far as 700 miles.

On this we disagree.   It may be greenseer blood from their ancestors allowing the Starks to control the weather, but they aren't aware they are doing it. 

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37 minutes ago, Brad Stark said:

On this we disagree.   It may be greenseer blood from their ancestors allowing the Starks to control the weather, but they aren't aware they are doing it. 

Something we haven't discussed here for a while is the hive mind concept which GRRM is so fond of, on the evidence of some of his other work. I don't think it likely that the Starks, as individuals, can control or even influence the weather, but they may well have a connection [perhaps unwittingly] to a hive mind which can

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51 minutes ago, St Daga said:

Where does Selyse's belief in resurrection come from? It's not something the Melisandre seems to promote. However, there have been some interesting thoughts on Shireen's death leading to Jon's rebirth. Also, something about Shireen's greyscale is important, however, and it might play out if she is burned!

This is a fair point. Even though we as readers are aware of the resurrections of Beric Dondarrion and Lady Stonehart, that is relatively unknown in the world. my question would rest on the training of the red priests. Thorps seems to have resurrected Beric despite the fact he was a poor priest by all accounts and Beric, with little training, was able to give the kiss of life to Stonehart. So perhaps it is earnest prayer to the Lord of Light? Melisandre and Selyse are certainly more devout and have a propensity to give living sacrifices. 

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1 minute ago, Black Crow said:

Something we haven't discussed here for a while is the hive mind concept which GRRM is so fond of, on the evidence of some of his other work. I don't think it likely that the Starks, as individuals, can control or even influence the weather, but they may well have a connection [perhaps unwittingly] to a hive mind which can

With the exception of Bran, the other Starks seem to have little awareness of their abilities. Jon and Arya seem to have the most pronounced warging abilities of the remaining but even they are unsure about how they work and confuse them with dreams (though Arya may be starting to realize it is something more). I think it’s possible the weather thing is true, too. I am curious if we go through the world book or F&B if there is a correlation of wars or political intrigues that have deep Stark involvement and weather changes. 

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45 minutes ago, Black Crow said:

Something we haven't discussed here for a while is the hive mind concept which GRRM is so fond of, on the evidence of some of his other work. I don't think it likely that the Starks, as individuals, can control or even influence the weather, but they may well have a connection [perhaps unwittingly] to a hive mind which can

The nature and quantity of the weirwood hiveminds is one of my main and oldest doubts. Do we get only one hivemind or we are going to see multiple clusters and factions?. The idea of the Stark pack using the weirnet as the equivalent of a virtual private network is hinted in the books when TreeBran awakes Jon and when the howling wolf awakes Arya in Harrenhal. This seems to be independent from whatever parts of the Hivemind is available to greenseers like Bloodraven.

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6 hours ago, Janneyc1 said:

1. If the Starks are controlling the weather, who is controlling the storm that dominates ADWD? Looking into it, the storm looks to be centered at Winterfell and growing in size. I don't think anyone inside Winterfell could be controlling it. Maybe Bran up in his cave, but we aren't given any indication of that.

I wonder how the storm around Winterfell lines up around the happenings of Jon at the wall? He would be the closest person of Stark blood to Winterell without actually being in Winterfell. Could his moods/emotions be driving the weather?

I am also curious about Sansa, whom I think might be the only Stark child born in the winter, might be affecting the weather in the vale?

We have Bran in the cave north of the wall and it seems like there is a heavy snowfall outside the cave's entrance. 

Even Robb's mood is down as he moves toward the Twins earlier in our story, and we get heavy, heavy rainfalls that impede travel and cause great flooding within the riverlands themselves. (this might be to early in the story to matter :dunno:)

Arya in Braavos seems to be aware that it is snowing in the riverlands. Could Arya's connection to Nymeria be strong enough to have a subtle effect on the weather? Also, there are interesting hints of mist that surround Arya in Braavos, although her mood doesn't seem to be particularly poor.

Perhaps there is nothing really hinted out with most of these things, but with Jon, who has more of the north in him than his brothers, perhaps does have some weather pull. It's already snowing quite a bit before his stabbing, so that could coincide with the Winterfell blizzard, but perhaps that was only a precursor to a big weather system?

Thoughts?

 

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5 hours ago, Demetri said:

Am I correct in assuming that y'all have used the historical site of the most notable Temple of Hades (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Necromanteion_of_Acheron) to inform some/much of this? Cause the moment you said that my brain went right to it. It is actually a little too spot on regarding the iron bars, a bit uncharacteristically so for Martin. Not that that proves a thing, mind.

This is interesting. Thanks for sharing. As much as I connect Ned as Lord of Winterfell to Hades and the crypts to the underworld of mythos, this temple concept is something I have missed. I need to read some more and see what direction my thoughts fly off into. If gifts and sacrifices are important, what do we see left as gifts in the crypts? Ned does say that he brings Lyanna flowers when he can? Are these actual flowers or is it something else?

 

5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Interesting thought!  I would agree with @Feather Crystalas well that iron is some sort of ward.  I think it will be of importance later that Bran, Hodor, Rickon and Osha took some swords from the crypts.

If iron is a ward in the Winterfell crypts, could it also be used as a ward at the wall? There are iron gates within the cells in the wall, I think. What are other uses of iron within the wall?

 

2 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

This is a fair point. Even though we as readers are aware of the resurrections of Beric Dondarrion and Lady Stonehart, that is relatively unknown in the world. my question would rest on the training of the red priests. Thorps seems to have resurrected Beric despite the fact he was a poor priest by all accounts and Beric, with little training, was able to give the kiss of life to Stonehart. So perhaps it is earnest prayer to the Lord of Light? Melisandre and Selyse are certainly more devout and have a propensity to give living sacrifices. 

Yes, this knowledge could come from Melisandre. When Beric first was raised from the dead, Thoros gave the kiss of life and said some words. As far as we know, he never has used a sacrifice for his magic in bringing Beric back. The time we see with Arya (although that is honestly off page, so who knows what really happened) there is no obvious sacrifice in play. But perhaps if Stannis is dead and has been dead for some time, unlike Beric who was fresh-dead, then the need for a sacrifice is more apparent. I am trying to think if there could have been a sacrifice in play in Stoneheart's revival? I do think that Aegon/Jinglebell served as a blood sacrifice of sorts, so maybe this is what made Stoneheart rise after three days. Maybe this will be a possibility for Stannis if he dies days before an attempted resurrection. Hmm! I need to think on this a bit.

 

 

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

For instance, I think that the battle against the Others will occur after the burning of KL - which I don't think will be because of Cersei, but Daenerys attacking Aegon and Arianne

Sure.  That basic sequence is, as I've noted before, right out of the 1993 synopsis and was also already heavily implied by the title of ADWD.

But I can't call that story the same story we got from HBO at all.  For one thing, in the show there is no Aegon and there is no Arianne either.

For another, it's hard to imagine that if Dany torches thousands of innocent civilians, as on the show, she is going to have any kind of following after that.  She will have exposed herself as a mass murderer, and I just don't see GRRM shutting down her story in book six.

And let's not forget that in Book World, we've already had Dany's theoretical madness evaluated by someone remarkably competent to assess Targ insanity... someone who served two Targ monarchs before her, one of whom was insane. 

He was, he told us, specifically looking for such insanity in Dany.   And he never found any.

Quote

"The truth is, I wanted to watch you for a time before pledging you my sword. To make certain that you were not . . ."

". . . my father's daughter?" If she was not her father's daughter, who was she?

". . . mad," he finished. "But I see no taint in you." 

Quote

"You are the trueborn heir of Westeros. To the end of my days I shall remain your faithful knight, should you find me worthy to bear a sword again. If not, I am content to serve Strong Belwas as his squire."

Was Barristan Selmy wrong?  Maybe.  I doubt it.  I expect some conflict with Aegon, but not anything like what we saw on the show.  And I expect Book Dany to come out of it, at the end, smelling a whole lot better than Show Dany... whose paranoia, rage at the idea of being supplanted by someone more popular and worthy, and grotesque actions remind me quite a bit of the nut in the White House right now.

Edited by JNR

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@JNR I was not a fan of the last few seasons either; however, I think they have adapted, which I take to mean condensed, combined, cut and restructured, the end plot.  So, I think some of the same things are going to happen albeit in different ways, as I outlined above.  You can certainly dislike the show for doing it (I certainly have my beef), but I don't think they necessarily ended it in an egregiously far off either.  It is more likely that GRRM's storytelling will be better crafted, so we will feel differently about it. 

ALAS, the show is the show and the books are the books.  So, to turn this more specifically towards Daenerys and her turning mad. There are a few essays that focus solely on the book, written years ago, that suspect a darker turn for Daenerys. You may still feel the same after reading them, but they do provide a lot of textual evidence for the "darker Daenerys" issue.

https://meereeneseblot.wordpress.com/2013/10/05/untangling-the-meereenese-knot-part-iv-a-darker-daenerys/

This is part 4 of a five part study of Daenerys' arc in Slaver's Bay, specifically during Dance.  This part specifically deals with the darker Daenerys, but the reading the entire essay is very interesting.

https://warsandpoliticsoficeandfire.wordpress.com/2014/10/07/the-dragons-mercy-the-violent-future-path-of-daenerys-targaryen-part-1-children-and-prophecy/

This is a different writer writing a four part essay on the topic. 

Both use ample textual support for their points, and it should be noted, these were written years ago, so this is not someone who recently watched the show now using the books to defend the show runners.

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22 minutes ago, St Daga said:
5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

Interesting thought!  I would agree with @Feather Crystalas well that iron is some sort of ward.  I think it will be of importance later that Bran, Hodor, Rickon and Osha took some swords from the crypts.

If iron is a ward in the Winterfell crypts, could it also be used as a ward at the wall? There are iron gates within the cells in the wall, I think. What are other uses of iron within the wall?

Okay, I just had a crazy thought in regards to something Donal Noye said to Jon Snow:

Quote

"Robert was the true steel. Stannis is pure iron, black and hard and strong, yes, but brittle, the way iron gets. He'll break before he bends. And Renly, that one, he's copper, bright and shiny, pretty to look at but not worth all that much at the end of the day." ACOK-Jon I

So, in regards to Stannis being a figurative stand in for iron on the wall, could Stannis be having an affect on any wards that might be woven into the wall? Jon actually remembers Donal Noye's words on Stannis several times. This is not just a one-time thought in regards to Stannis.

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8 minutes ago, St Daga said:

Okay, I just had a crazy thought in regards to something Donal Noye said to Jon Snow:

So, in regards to Stannis being a figurative stand in for iron on the wall, could Stannis be having an affect on any wards that might be woven into the wall? Jon actually remembers Donal Noye's words on Stannis several times. This is not just a one-time thought in regards to Stannis.

Very interesting! Stannis is truly an interesting figure in ASOIAF.  What message is GRRM telling with his story?  He is so sure of his justness and his right to the throne that he seems to be sacrificing his ideals -  turning away from the faith of the seven, burning people alive, etc.

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4 hours ago, St Daga said:

Where does Selyse's belief in resurrection come from? It's not something the Melisandre seems to promote. However, there have been some interesting thoughts on Shireen's death leading to Jon's rebirth. Also, something about Shireen's greyscale is important, however, and it might play out if she is burned!

We know very little about the Red lot, or at least not in any detail, but there are a couple of important clues. There's Master Benero preaching that those who die in the service of R'hllor will be born again, and there's also a moment in Mel's POV where she reflects that the Wildlings are a doomed people, presumably because they do not belong to the elect.

Both could support the likelihood that Mel may have taught Selyse that a fiery death was the road to salvation. If so then Shireen's burning might be justified in the eyes of of Mel and Selyse because not only would her sacrifice serve a a purpose, but because in making that sacrifice she would be saved - as Mel believes herself to have been

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1 hour ago, JNR said:

Sure.  That basic sequence is, as I've noted before, right out of the 1993 synopsis and was also already heavily implied by the title of ADWD.

But I can't call that story the same story we got from HBO at all.  For one thing, in the show there is no Aegon and there is no Arianne either.

 

As anybody who has been in the business will tell you , adapting a book for the screen means simplifying things and I think that in this case Aegon and Jon have been combined rather than confuse the groundlings by introducing two rivals for Danaerys the Dragonlord to contend with. 

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2 hours ago, St Daga said:

 

I am also curious about Sansa, whom I think might be the only Stark child born in the winter, might be affecting the weather in the vale?

 

Thoughts?

 

I don't think Sansa was affecting the weather at the Eyrie - it was expected after all.

However... the snowflake communion certainly appears to affect her.

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Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

For instance, I think that the battle against the Others will occur after the burning of KL - which I don't think will be because of Cersei, but Daenerys attacking Aegon and Arianne.  

While I suspect this is the more likely chronology of events, I do see the premise for why the chronology in Show World is possible.

One factor is that, by the time Dany invades, she's already going to be beaten to the punch by Aegon VI to press a claim for Targaryen restoration. Furthermore, her allies are all going to be tremendously unpopular to the native Westerosi: Dothraki, dragons, Tyrion, and potentially the Iron Born. Presumably, invading and fighting the "rightful" Targaryen claimant is only going to make it harder to find allies.

The likely result of that is a lot of violent conquest, which brings up the second factor--as recently as Sunday/Monday, GRRM is still talking about trying to finish within two books and 3000 manuscript pages, which means Dany would have to do the following:

Deal with the Dothraki, return to Meereen and mop up, secure passage to the West, (possibly) deal with Euron stealing one of her dragons, and then not just fight Dance 2.0, but deal with every single remaining political foe, take the IT, and rule a roughly unified Westeros, all before the Wall falls--consequently, still leaving hundreds of pages worth of Other plot to deal with.

Most likely, GRRM's goals in book number and page count are almost certainly unrealistic, but if that's what he's aiming for, then I think that achieving it within that page count necessarily means that Dany's invasion will begin to overlap with the invasion of the Others--and consequently, open a different avenue for her to gain allies and popular support, if she puts her political ambitions on pause to go fight the Battle for the Dawn.

Edited by Matthew.

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5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

With the exception of Bran, the other Starks seem to have little awareness of their abilities. Jon and Arya seem to have the most pronounced warging abilities of the remaining but even they are unsure about how they work and confuse them with dreams (though Arya may be starting to realize it is something more). I think it’s possible the weather thing is true, too. I am curious if we go through the world book or F&B if there is a correlation of wars or political intrigues that have deep Stark involvement and weather changes. 

This is one of the "in theory you are right" topics, that don't stand well on a case to case base. We have 6 children. Sansa is out. Ricken too young and no POV anyway. And Robb made comments and hints about the things he could do to either Jon or Bran. So only the 3 Starks you mendtioned are left anyway.

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7 minutes ago, Matthew. said:

While I suspect this is the more likely chronology of events, I do see the premise for why the chronology in Show World is possible.

One factor is that, by the time Dany invades, she's already going to be beaten to the punch by Aegon VI to press a claim for Targaryen restoration. Furthermore, her allies are all going to be tremendously unpopular to the native Westerosi: Dothraki, dragons, Tyrion, and potentially the Iron Born. Presumably, invading and fighting the "rightful" Targaryen claimant is only going to make it harder to find allies.

The likely result of that is a lot of violent conquest, which brings up the second factor--as recently as Sunday/Monday, GRRM is still talking about trying to finish within two books and 3000 manuscript pages, which means Dany would have to do the following:

Deal with the Dothraki, return to Meereen and mop up, secure passage to the West, (possibly) have Euron steal with one of her dragons, and then not just fight Dance 2.0, but deal with every single remaining political foe, take the IT, and rule a roughly unified Westeros, all before the Wall falls--consequently, still leaving hundreds of pages worth of Other plot to deal with.

Most likely, GRRM's goals in book number and page count are almost certainly unrealistic, but if that's what he's aiming for, then I think that achieving it within that page count necessarily means that Dany's invasion will begin to overlap with the invasion of the Others--and consequently, open a different avenue for her to gain allies and popular support, if she puts her political ambitions on pause to go fight the Battle for the Dawn.

I think antagonist Dany & Tyrion could work very well. GRRM just has to stop publishing POVs for them, so that the reader can speculate why they decide the way they do, based on their experiences. Why burn KL ? Because they have wildfire anyway and there is no way around, as Tyrion found out. And so on .. while the faith styles them as foreign mass murderers. 

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5 hours ago, Lady Rhodes said:

You can certainly dislike the show for doing it (I certainly have my beef), but I don't think they necessarily ended it in an egregiously far off either.

Well, we'll have to wait and see. 

However, for me, we do already know that they ended it egregiously far off.  The oncoming Long Night in the books... which I think we agree is going to be the primary and final conflict of the series, in contradiction of the show... really can't end with killing Night King.  Because he doesn't exist in the books, except as a mythical reference to a human being.

The show ending also depends on the premise that killing a Popsicle instantly kills all the wights (or other Popsicles) that that Popsicle created.  And this crucial concept, like Night King, simply does not exist in Book World.  

And while it's technically possible that Westeros will arbitrarily abandon the claim-driven succession by which, for thousands of years, it has chosen kings, I really don't think that will happen, either.  So IMO, Bran, who has no conceivable claim, is not going to be king of Westeros at any point in the books -- certainly not the ending.

However, I do expect the Wall to fall, I do expect Dany to run into trouble with Westerosi nobles, and I do expect there to be a war for survival in the North.  So in terms of those major beats... yes, I think we will get that much in the books.

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4 hours ago, Black Crow said:

I think that in this case Aegon and Jon have been combined rather than confuse the groundlings by introducing two rivals for Danaerys the Dragonlord to contend with. 

A curious position to take, because Show Dany never contends with Show Jon.   Jon is on her side practically from the day they meet until the very instant she dies.  

But will Book Dany contend with Book Aegon?  We'll find out, but  I think she will...

In the books, Book Aegon is backed by the Golden Company.  But in the show, the Golden Company is opposed to Jon Snow.

The show-runners were also apparently fooled into believing R+L=J, and as a result, committed themselves to many comical decisions such as giving Jon the secret Targ name "Aegon."  It seems they forgot that Show Rhaegar had already had a son named Aegon in Show World, as referenced so memorably by Show Gregor Clegane during his fight with Show Red Viper.

In general, I think it would be best to say that D&D totally abandoned Book Aegon's entire storyline, and everything and everyone in it.  Jon Connington, Septa Lemore, Haldon the half-maester, Rolly, Ysilla and her excellent biscuits, her husband Yandry, etc, etc.  All completely tossed out the window.   All literally nonexistent in the show.

So as usual, just a dog's breakfast on the part of Benioff and Weiss.

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