Who will be Lord Commander after Jeor and Jon were killed by mutiny?

[Son of Man]

On 5/28/2019 at 9:51 AM, Ser Hedge said:

I give him 2 minutes. Which brings us to the next question, who after Bowen Marsh's shortest-ever stint as an LC, will take over as the next LC?

The rest of the Watch will support what he did to Jon because it needed to be done.  Don't expect trouble from that side.  The only ones who might give him some trouble are the wildlings but they are more concerned with getting their king from Ramsay.  

[Ser Hedge]

2 hours ago, Son of Man said:

The rest of the Watch will support what he did to Jon because it needed to be done.  Don't expect trouble from that side.  The only ones who might give him some trouble are the wildlings but they are more concerned with getting their king from Ramsay.  

Well first, there is an angry giant who knew Jon well enough and realizes Jon was their main ally standing right by the scene. He might have well already dealt with the stabbers by the first chapter of Winds.

Second, there are hundreds of Wildling fighters who were just recently roused by Jon's speech. Their kin are now lodged in various castles along the wall. They are not going to leave them there with a hostile NW to go find their ex-King who is allegedly in a cage 600 snow covered miles away. And as far as we know, Jon did not even confirm Mance was indeed alive (even to Tormund in private), he just read out the letter aloud. It's just a claim at this point.

Third, while Ser Patrek being processed into ketchup will have turned his immediate companions against the Wildlings, the claims made in the letter are more significant. Jon was going to ride out to avenge their King and did not for a moment contemplate giving up the Queen and the Princess. And these are Queen's men who follow R'hllor, so Mel should be able to restore order after the initial confusion.

Finally, not all NW will automatically support the assassination, to put it mildly. There are those personally loyal to Jon and there will be those that do not want to be part of a mutiny. We don't know the NW code to deal with a mutineer, or one who slays another brother. It should be death really. 

The odds are high that Wun Wun, Tormund & co, or other Queen's Men deal with the mutineers. They may try to arrest them if they have not fled already.  If there is any resistance, many NW mutineers will die. There is no way an orderly new LC election happens at CB. And we don't even know if Jon is dead! The mutineers will have to flee to one of the other two castles and call for an election from there. In that scenario, effectively the NW itself splits with the Jon loyalists at CB not accepting Bowen or Alliser. 

So, I think theories that have Bowen take over as the next LC of a still-existing NW at Castle Black completely ignore the realities on the ground. His best bet is to take advantage of the confusion around Ser Patrek (e.g. tell the Wildlings in the shield hall that the Queen's men killed Jon) and high tail it out from there before Mel, Tormund, Val etc restore order. In that scenario maybe Bowen is leader of a NW splinter faction at East Watch, with Cotter Pyke out and with Mallister at the Shadow Tower likely not wanting to put up with mutineers.

 

[Lollygag]

There will be no the NW will do this or the NW will do that. It's deeply fractured over how to handle the wildlings and then again over how to defend against the Others - both issues in themselves and not about Jon personally. 

ADWD Jon IV

No. You would close our gates forever and seal them up with stone and ice. Half of Castle Black agreed with the Lord Steward's views, he knew. The other half heaped scorn on them. "Seal our gates and plant your fat black arses on the Wall, aye, and the free folk'll come swarming o'er the Bridge o' Skulls or through some gate you thought you'd sealed five hundred years ago," the old forester Dywen had declared loudly over supper, two nights past. "We don't have the men to watch a hundred leagues o' Wall. Tormund Giantsbutt and the bloody Weeper knows it too. Ever see a duck frozen in a pond, with his feet in the ice? It works the same for crows." Most rangers echoed Dywen, whilst the stewards and builders inclined toward Bowen Marsh. 
 

Aliser Thorne is gone beyond the Wall on a ranging mission, so it's highly doubtful to be him.

 

1 hour ago, Ser Hedge said:

So, I think theories that have Bowen take over as the next LC of a still-existing NW at Castle Black completely ignore the realities on the ground. His best bet is to take advantage of the confusion around Ser Patrek (e.g. tell the Wildlings in the shield hall that the Queen's men killed Jon) and high tail it out from there before Mel, Tormund, Val etc restore order. In that scenario maybe Bowen is leader of a NW splinter faction at East Watch, with Cotter Pyke out and with Mallister at the Shadow Tower likely not wanting to put up with mutineers.

It's kind of unbelievable to me, but there's zero evidence that anyone witnessed the attack. No yelling, no interference, no alarm raised, no one joining the fight either way. Wick and Marsh make no movements to flee or of even being aware of the need to flee. As Jon's #2, it looks like they'll probably run to Marsh about the LC being stabbed and Marsh & Co will pretend that they knew nothing about it. 

 

To the OP:

It seems to be a plot requirement that the Wall fall, and we know through the extensive conversations between Jon and Marsh (gotta wonder why we got so many of those ?) that Marsh will screw things up all kinds of ways in order to hurry that along. Marsh is also a very well-written character for one so minor, so there's a fantastic opportunity to explore the psychology of denial, hiding behind walls and Walls, and how bean-counters and order fiends like Marsh react when facing their whole world falling apart. It's something that will come up for the rest of Westeros later as some simply won't be able to accept that the Others are coming and all that entails. By how Marsh is being written, he's the doorway to introducing that to the reader. 

 

[Gerg Sknab]

1 hour ago, Lollygag said:

There will be no the NW will do this or the NW will do that. It's deeply fractured over how to handle the wildlings and then again over how to defend against the Others - both issues in themselves and not about Jon personally. 

ADWD Jon IV

No. You would close our gates forever and seal them up with stone and ice. Half of Castle Black agreed with the Lord Steward's views, he knew. The other half heaped scorn on them. "Seal our gates and plant your fat black arses on the Wall, aye, and the free folk'll come swarming o'er the Bridge o' Skulls or through some gate you thought you'd sealed five hundred years ago," the old forester Dywen had declared loudly over supper, two nights past. "We don't have the men to watch a hundred leagues o' Wall. Tormund Giantsbutt and the bloody Weeper knows it too. Ever see a duck frozen in a pond, with his feet in the ice? It works the same for crows." Most rangers echoed Dywen, whilst the stewards and builders inclined toward Bowen Marsh. 
 

Aliser Thorne is gone beyond the Wall on a ranging mission, so it's highly doubtful to be him.

 

It's kind of unbelievable to me, but there's zero evidence that anyone witnessed the attack. No yelling, no interference, no alarm raised, no one joining the fight either way. Wick and Marsh make no movements to flee or of even being aware of the need to flee. As Jon's #2, it looks like they'll probably run to Marsh about the LC being stabbed and Marsh & Co will pretend that they knew nothing about it. 

 

To the OP:

It seems to be a plot requirement that the Wall fall, and we know through the extensive conversations between Jon and Marsh (gotta wonder why we got so many of those ?) that Marsh will screw things up all kinds of ways in order to hurry that along. Marsh is also a very well-written character for one so minor, so there's a fantastic opportunity to explore the psychology of denial, hiding behind walls and Walls, and how bean-counters and order fiends like Marsh react when facing their whole world falling apart. It's something that will come up for the rest of Westeros later as some simply won't be able to accept that the Others are coming and all that entails. By how Marsh is being written, he's the doorway to introducing that to the reader. 

 

Selective memory, eh. Jon is accompanied by many leaving the shield hall that number would be drastically increase with screams of WunWun and Ser Patrik, the would be innumerable witnesses to Wick, Bowen and the others breaking their NW vow. A length of rope and a gallows is all they expect. Effectively with the stabbing of Snow the seeming loss of Pyke at Hardhome and the expected attack by the weeper  and minions of the poorly manned Westwatch by the Bridge the NW is past and gone

[Lollygag]

Just now, Gerg Sknab said:

Selective memory, eh. Jon is accompanied by many leaving the shield hall that number would be drastically increase with screams of WunWun and Ser Patrik, the would be innumerable witnesses to Wick, Bowen and the others breaking their NW vow. A length of rope and a gallows is all they expect. Effectively with the stabbing of Snow the seeming loss of Pyke at Hardhome and the expected attack by the weeper  and minions of the poorly manned Westwatch by the Bridge the NW is past and gone

I have a hard time believing it, but I reread it and there's nothing there pointing to that. To the contrary. If I missed something, I welcome anyone to point it out. It makes no sense that none of these hypothetical witnesses joined in on either side, didn't even make their presence known, or were even acknowledged in the slightest by Jon, Marsh or Wick. Having people around =/= witnesses to a specific event. 

What happens when you get a fight? "FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!" People yell. They join in. They break it up. They help one side or the other. No one helped Jon. At all. 

[Gerg Sknab]

14 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

downI have a hard time believing it, but I reread it and there's nothing there pointing to that. To the contrary. If I missed something, I welcome anyone to point it out. It makes no sense that none of these hypothetical witnesses joined in on either side, didn't even make their presence known, or were even acknowledged in the slightest by Jon, Marsh or Wick. Having people around =/= witnesses to a specific event. 

What happens when you get a fight? "FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!" People yell. They join in. They break it up. They help one side or the other. No one helped Jon. At all. 

Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. 

Men poured out from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, Free Folk, Queen,s Men, form a line Jon commanded. See all kinds of spectators.

He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it."\No Blades" he screamed "Wick put downthe knife"

quick precis of pages 942 943 

[Lollygag]

Just now, Gerg Sknab said:

Horse and Rory fell in beside Jon as he left the Shieldhall. 

Men poured out from the surrounding keeps and towers. Northmen, Free Folk, Queen,s Men, form a line Jon commanded. See all kinds of spectators.

He saw the glint of steel, turned toward it."\No Blades" he screamed "Wick put downthe knife"

quick precis of pages 942 943 

Like I said, people being around =/= witnesses to a particular event. Everyone was utterly fixated on Wun Wun and Patrek.

Explain why no one joined in with Marsh and Wick, no one helped Jon, yelled, or were even acknowledged by Jon, Wick or Marsh beyond them simply not being there to see. 

[Gerg Sknab]

5 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Like I said, people being around =/= witnesses to a particular event. Everyone was utterly fixated on Wun Wun and Patrek.

Explain why no one joined in with Marsh and Wick, no one helped Jon, yelled, or were even acknowledged by Jon, Wick or Marsh beyond them simply not being there to see. 

Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown clumsy. Somehow he couldn't get the sword out of the scabbard. 

You can suggest much of the screaming was for WunWun and Patrik however there is at least Horse, Rory and Leathers watching while Whittlestick screws up. I would think even more as Bowen cries impaling Jon

[Lollygag]

5 minutes ago, Gerg Sknab said:

Men were screaming. Jon reached for Longclaw, but his fingers had grown clumsy. Somehow he couldn't get the sword out of the scabbard. 

You can suggest much of the screaming was for WunWun and Patrik however there is at least Horse, Rory and Leathers watching while Whittlestick screws up. I would think even more as Bowen cries impaling Jon

So Horse, Rory and Leathers just stand there doing nothing while Jon starts to clearly fail and gets stabbed over and over by two weakling stewards? And Jon never thinks, "Dudes! wtf? Some help here!"

When I said screaming, I was referring to something like "Hey look! Marsh is attacking/killing the LC!" followed by people trying to join in or stop it. You know, what usually happens in an unexpected fight. 

You can think whatever you want - I want evidence that makes sense. 

[Gerg Sknab]

5 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

So Horse, Rory and Leathers just stand there doing nothing while Jon starts to clearly fail and gets stabbed over and over by two weakling stewards? 

When I said screaming, I was referring to something like "Hey look! Marsh is attacking/killing the LC!" followed by people trying to join in or stop it. You know, what usually happens in an unexpected fight. 

You can think whatever you want - I want evidence that makes sense. 

You're reading fantasy, you're reading thoughts on paper written by another. It really doesn't make difference if it makes sense to you or me for that matter it made sense to GRRM and we're discussing some obtuse point. With that I would suggest he was successful.

[Lollygag]

Just now, Gerg Sknab said:

You're reading fantasy, you're reading thoughts on paper written by another. It really doesn't make difference if it makes sense to you or me for that matter it made sense to GRRM and we're discussing some obtuse point. With that I would suggest he was successful.

The fantasy genre shouldn't be used as an excuse for what you're implying is bad writing. 

Bold: Seriously? I can't disagree with this more and GRRM has a thoroughly established track record at being quite good at successfully communicating his thoughts to the reader. Writing is a form of communication, so being understood is essential and of the utmost importance. Whether or not anyone knows that Marsh was behind this has a massive impact on the plot. It's very important. 

 

[Ser Hedge]

6 hours ago, Lollygag said:

There will be no the NW will do this or the NW will do that. It's deeply fractured over how to handle the wildlings and then again over how to defend against the Others - both issues in themselves and not about Jon personally. 

ADWD Jon IV

No. You would close our gates forever and seal them up with stone and ice. Half of Castle Black agreed with the Lord Steward's views, he knew. The other half heaped scorn on them. "Seal our gates and plant your fat black arses on the Wall, aye, and the free folk'll come swarming o'er the Bridge o' Skulls or through some gate you thought you'd sealed five hundred years ago," the old forester Dywen had declared loudly over supper, two nights past. "We don't have the men to watch a hundred leagues o' Wall. Tormund Giantsbutt and the bloody Weeper knows it too. Ever see a duck frozen in a pond, with his feet in the ice? It works the same for crows." Most rangers echoed Dywen, whilst the stewards and builders inclined toward Bowen Marsh. 

4 hours ago, Lollygag said:

So Horse, Rory and Leathers just stand there doing nothing while Jon starts to clearly fail and gets stabbed over and over by two weakling stewards? And Jon never thinks, "Dudes! wtf? Some help here!"

 When I said screaming, I was referring to something like "Hey look! Marsh is attacking/killing the LC!" followed by people trying to join in or stop it. You know, what usually happens in an unexpected fight. 

Leathers either went over to Wun Wun to calm him down in the old tongue or the mutineers must have got to him too. But that's just surmising of course.

You make a fair point, I would say it's inconclusive either way based on the evidence. Perhaps everyone except the mutineers was fixated on the giant, or there were some people who did see some of what happened to Jon, but we don't hear it because Jon doesn't hear them in his POV.

Just not enough evidence and with the situation so completely open, if you're taking a view on the next LC, you need to take first a view on how the situation feasibly resolves itself first. 

Marsh can try denying his involvement, but unless Rory and Horse were away controlling the crowd or were in on the mutiny and Leathers was busy with Wun Wun or was killed, and no one else in the crowd saw anything either, that's not possible. Even if the above all hold, it will still be hard to pull it off, his best bet is to pin it on the Queen's men. The smart thing to do is to make himself scarce.

But then smart and Bowen Marsh have not been used in the same sentence before, unless 'not' or 'in no way' or 'cannot be said to be' were also used.

[Ser Hedge]

3 hours ago, Gerg Sknab said:

you're reading thoughts on paper written by another.

Thank you for the quotes from the book. On the above, I would say we're reading Jon's thoughts (and what his senses are telling him) and this is not always a complete picture of the situation. So, we just don't know either way if others saw what happened or not.

[Impbread]

On 5/30/2019 at 1:11 PM, Baelor 'Breakspear' said:

I think the there will be a NW civil war kinda. Maybe mutineers vs Cotter Pyke or Mallister vs free folk vs Mel and Stannis troops remaining at the wall

Cotter Pyke ain't coming back. It is known.

 

[Impbread]

5 hours ago, Lollygag said:

I have a hard time believing it, but I reread it and there's nothing there pointing to that. To the contrary. If I missed something, I welcome anyone to point it out. It makes no sense that none of these hypothetical witnesses joined in on either side, didn't even make their presence known, or were even acknowledged in the slightest by Jon, Marsh or Wick. Having people around =/= witnesses to a specific event. 

What happens when you get a fight? "FIGHT! FIGHT! FIGHT!" People yell. They join in. They break it up. They help one side or the other. No one helped Jon. At all. 

John had a tail. 

[Lollygag]

Just now, Impbread said:

John had a tail. 

Sorry, but I'm not following...

[Impbread]

8 minutes ago, Lollygag said:

Sorry, but I'm not following...

Just meant that he had people following him. So they saw,but they could have been in on in it too for that matter.

[Lollygag]

Just now, Impbread said:

Just meant that he had people following him. So they saw,but they could have been in on in it too for that matter.

Yeah, anyone tailing Jon would probably be in on it. Jon didn't do bodyguards. That was Ghost's job, hence Mel's unheaded warning. 

[Lollygag]

44 minutes ago, Ser Hedge said:

Leathers either went over to Wun Wun to calm him down in the old tongue or the mutineers must have got to him too. But that's just surmising of course.

You make a fair point, I would say it's inconclusive either way based on the evidence. Perhaps everyone except the mutineers was fixated on the giant, or there were some people who did see some of what happened to Jon, but we don't hear it because Jon doesn't hear them in his POV.

Just not enough evidence and with the situation so completely open, if you're taking a view on the next LC, you need to take first a view on how the situation feasibly resolves itself first. 

Marsh can try denying his involvement, but unless Rory and Horse were away controlling the crowd or were in on the mutiny and Leathers was busy with Wun Wun or was killed, and no one else in the crowd saw anything either, that's not possible. Even if the above all hold, it will still be hard to pull it off, his best bet is to pin it on the Queen's men. The smart thing to do is to make himself scarce.

But then smart and Bowen Marsh have not been used in the same sentence before, unless 'not' or 'in no way' or 'cannot be said to be' were also used.

But there's no indication from Jon that Wick and Marsh hear anything either. And we know there's no intervention/joining in, and neither Marsh or Wick or Jon give any indication that anyone may intervene or join in. They make no move to run and it doesn't occur to Jon that anyone is there to help. 

As for witnesses after the fact from too far away to intervene or join in (the further away, the less likely to be a witness as they're more likely to have an obstructed view), they're going to have to sell the mild-mannered, bean counter accountant, hyper-traditionalist steward killed the LC in a fit of rage. That's a tough one. 

Also narratively, the Wall needs to fall. We found out though a lot of convos between Marsh and Jon that Marsh is the perfect guy to make that happen. We won't even need a POV. We were pretty much already told how it'll all go. The Wall falls under the 999th LC Bowen Marsh who learns you can't hide your problems behind walls/Walls. 

[Varysblackfyre321]

9 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

Finally, not all NW will automatically support the assassination, to put it mildly. There are those personally loyal to Jon and there will be those that do not want to be part of a mutiny. We don't know the NW code to deal with a mutineer, or one who slays another brother. It should be death really. 

Meh, I think this is overestimating Jon’s popularity.

Sure not all but probably the vast majority  given Jon’s policies aren’t depicted as well received. Pyke and Malister want the wildlings as dead and gone as Marsh. It could be reasonably assumed their men probably take after their leader in this regard.

The Stewards who make up the vast majority of people at Castle-black have shown to be Marsh’s main base. I imagine most of them would support the action given they see Jon as a flat out abomination.

And plenty of those who aren’t Marsh’s followers aren’t necessarily pro-Jon. He is making sweeping changes to the watch to which run countenance to how they’ve taught.  That wildlings are the enemy and that during winter  taking more people to feed is suicidal. 

I mean the average man in the NW as of now hasn’t seen a Walker. What they have seen is wildlings torturing and killing their brothers, and among the older members many probably  also seen people they’ve loved be slowly killed by the hunger caused by winter. 

9 hours ago, Ser Hedge said:

So, I think theories that have Bowen take over as the next LC of a still-existing NW at Castle Black completely ignore the realities on the ground. His best bet is to take advantage of the confusion around Ser Patrek (e.g. tell the Wildlings in the shield hall that the Queen's men killed Jon) and high tail it out from there before Mel, Tormund, Val etc restore order. In that scenario maybe Bowen is leader of a NW splinter faction at East Watch, with Cotter Pyke out and with Mallister at the Shadow Tower likely not wanting to put up with mutineers.

Or he could try to take the hostages(that includes Tormund’s son)  and demand Tormund massacre the Queen’s men then leave.

 

And I can’t help but think Malister would be anything but sympathetic to Marsh if anything.

I mean Jon had a former whore as his personal Steward(a position reserved for noblemen and those who the LC wants to groom as a potential successor) accepted savages into the holy institution of the Nightwatch, and would have pardoned abominations like the Weeper. 

Jon’s policies were taking the watch on a progressive path that appealed no more to Malister than Marsh. Probably less so for Malister. Remember Malister’s main point for why Janos shouldn’t be LC wasn’t that he was corrupt, or unqualified, it was that the man was born a peasant. 

Hell a conservative  like Malister I could imagine being tempted to kill Jon.