Theory - Lyanna got pregnant in Harrenhal?

[Ygrain]

1 minute ago, frenin said:

I mean the rumours clearly linked Ashara with Jon, Cat wouldn't give a damn if those rumours weren't related to Jon's mother, she clearly states that she doesn't care whether Ned may have had a ton of lovers or not.

The rumour, the way it is stated, linked Ashara with Ned. And no, Cat doesn't say she doesn't care, she says she wouldn't care if only she wouldn't have to have Jon right under her nose. That makes her feel jealous and uncertain (she believes Ned must have loved Jon's mother fiercely). So, her husband has a bastard, and she hears about a connection between him and a certain lady (who she might know to have had a bastard baby). It is no rocket science to make such a connection, even if the rumour about Ned's visit to Starfall doesn't mention Jon's parentage at all.

[Frey family reunion]

2 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

The rumour, the way it is stated, linked Ashara with Ned. And no, Cat doesn't say she doesn't care, she says she wouldn't care if only she wouldn't have to have Jon right under her nose. That makes her feel jealous and uncertain (she believes Ned must have loved Jon's mother fiercely). So, her husband has a bastard, and she hears about a connection between him and a certain lady (who she might know to have had a bastard baby). It is no rocket science to make such a connection, even if the rumour about Ned's visit to Starfall doesn't mention Jon's parentage at all.

No the rumor Cat confronts Ned with linked Ashara with Ned and Jon:

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The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.
That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. “Never ask me about Jon,” he said, cold as ice. “He is my blood, and that is all you need to know.”

Why else would Ned respond to Cat asking him about the truth of the rumor by telling her to never ask him about Jon?

[frenin]

36 minutes ago, corbon said:

No it isn't. Its not even clearly indicated, let alone shouted, that Ned liked Ashara.

Saying its shouted shows that the Edric Dayne idea, which we know is flawed gossip by people who weren't around, and the Winterfell rumours, has influenced your reading of the KotLT dance story. Thats the only actual infor from someone who was there and doesn;t show Ned 'liking' Ashara clearly, merely that Brandon asked Ashara to dance with Ned..

Yes it is.

 

The crannogman saw a maid with laughing purple eyes dance with a white sword, a red snake, and the lord of griffins, and lastly with the quiet wolf... but only after the wild wolf spoke to her on behalf of a brother too shy to leave his bench

 

This is screaming, Ned had the hots for Ashara all over the place, there are a lot of ways of writing attraction, that's a very clear one, the wolf maid sniffed for the dragon prince's song  is another,  i didn't even think about the Daynes because i'm sure they're embelleshing things and offering a very touching love story between one of the most powerful and respected men in the Realm, the best bud of the King and a rebel leader and Ashara,  in some sort of "if we're going to do this, let's do it big". If i wanted to play the devil's advocant however i'd say that Ashara's sister should have a better understanding about what happened there than any other, bar i don't know ¿Howland?

 

 

36 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yes, its still a possibility that Ashara and Ned liked each other. Just not a very strong one.

And there is still zero indication that anyone believed Jon was conceived at Harrenhal.

I didn't say that no one believed that Jon was conceived at Harrenhall, people just believe that the Ned and Ashara thing started there and that Jon was conceived later.

Ned and Ashara is far stronger than Brandon, the only really logic behind Brandon is that,  " i don't think it was Ned and some Stark must be involved so i go with Brandon  because  Benjen seems too young."

 

@Ygrain

The rumours link Ashara with  Jon, Cat is thinking that Ned would never talk about Jon's mother and suddenly she goes on and on about Ashara, after making clear that the only reason she cares about her is that she might be Jon's mother.

 

That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband’s soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys’s Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur’s sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes. It had taken her a fortnight to marshal her courage, but finally, in bed one night, Catelyn had asked her husband the truth of it, asked him to his face.  That was the only time in all their years that Ned had ever frightened her. “Never ask me about Jon,” he said, cold as ice. “He is my blood, and that is all you need to know. And now I will learn where you heard that name, my lady.” She had pledged to obey; she told him; and from that day on, the whispering had stopped, and Ashara Dayne’s name was never heard in Winterfell again. Whoever Jon’s mother had been, Ned must have loved her fiercely, for nothing Catelyn said would persuade him to send the boy away. It was the one thing she could never forgive him. She had come to love her husband with all her heart, but she had never found it in her to love Jon. She might have overlooked a dozen bastards for Ned’s sake, so long as they were out of sight. Jon was never out of sight, and as he grew, he looked more like Ned than any of the trueborn sons she bore him. Somehow that made it worse.

 

 

@kissdbyfire

See?? You don't believe it's Ned so Brandon is the only logical answer if the tale of Ashara is to be true,  even when we're never told once that Ashara and Brandon ever talk without Ned being the subject of the conversation,  but since she banged a Stark, it must be Brandon, because Brandon was a womanizer...

And Ned and Ashara having a night in Harrenhall in no way means that Ned should've be hung up onto that 15 years later, it seems that if our Ned is not deeply in love with someone, it's impossible for him.

[kissdbyfire]

14 minutes ago, frenin said:

Ned and Ashara is far stronger than Brandon, the only really logic behind Brandon is that,  " i don't think it was Ned and some Stark must be involved so i go with Brandon  because  Benjen seems too young."

 

I disagree. Yes, I think Martin leaves it dubious on purpose, and if we look at the text only, one can make a case for either Brandon or Ned. But if we look at the full picture, it seems much more likely that it was Brandon and not Ned who had a fling w/ Ashara - that is, if either one did, which we don’t know for sure. 

What we learn about Brandon comes from other people; we never “meet” him, and are never given his PoV (for obvious reasons). But what we hear is that he was very much into women, and not shy about getting what he wanted. On the other hand, we have Ned and, unlike w/ Brandon, we are given his PoV and are inside his head. And not once does he think about Ashara Dayne. Not. Once. This is enormously telling, and I don’t understand how can anyone deny it or overlook it. Just my 2p worth. 

[Ygrain]

11 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

No the rumor Cat confronts Ned with linked Ashara with Ned and Jon:

Why else would Ned respond to Cat asking him about the truth of the rumor by telling her to never ask him about Jon?

Look at the whole paragraph:

When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence.
That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband’s soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys’s Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur’s sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes.

This is what Cat quotes as the extent of what she heard. Not a word about Harrenhal or a baby - so, is her recollection incomplete, did she "read" between the lines of what the maids said, or did she make an intuitive jump because she finally heard about Ned in connection with some woman?

 

[Ygrain]

28 minutes ago, frenin said:

The rumours link Ashara with  Jon, Cat is thinking that Ned would never talk about Jon's mother and suddenly she goes on and on about Ashara, after making clear that the only reason she cares about her is that she might be Jon's mother.

They don't. You have underlined the relevant part yourself, after all - not a word about Jon, but about Ned meeting this hauntingly beautiful lady. If the quoted is the whole content of what Cat heard, is is unclear if she grasped something the maids only implied, or made the connection herself.

Note also that this account doesn't mention the supposed HH fling, although it is quite obvious that Ned had to meet Ashara +9months before his trip to Starfall.

[frenin]

9 minutes ago, Ygrain said:

They don't. You have underlined the relevant part yourself, after all - not a word about Jon, but about Ned meeting this hauntingly beautiful lady. If the quoted is the whole content of what Cat heard, is is unclear if she grasped something the maids only implied, or made the connection herself.

Note also that this account doesn't mention the supposed HH fling, although it is quite obvious that Ned had to meet Ashara +9months before his trip to Starfall.

You have ignored the other part as well.

 

43 minutes ago, frenin said:

Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband’s soldiers.

This couldn't be clearier.

 

It's Harwin btw the one who talks about the Harrenhall tale and it's Harwin the one who sayst hat that tale was often told in Winterfell when he was a child, not Cat and we know that those tales stopped the moment they were told and because obviously, those tales could not do any good in the long run, with Cat salty about how was with "his true love" and all the kids starting making uncomfortable answers. 

It's likely that Cat couldn't have heard the same tales Harwin did when she was so interested in the subject?? It could be, but whether that is true or not, it's quite clear that Winterfell thought Ashara was the mother. If Ned comes back from Starfall with a kid and people already knew about what happened in Harrenhall is quite easy how the soldiers connect the dots and what they'd tell when they arrived home.

 

@kissdbyfire

 

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That’s not the point I tried to make. I’m not sold on the idea that Ashara had a fling w/ either man, actually. I do think that IF she had a fling w/ a Stark, it was Brandon, not Ned. And Brandon asking her to dance w/ Ned only reinforces it for me. Like, she wasn’t even aware Ned existed, until the charming Brandon asked her to dance w/ his shy younger brother. 

But after getting Selmy’s thoughts on the matter in Dance, I became less convinced she had a thing w/ a Stark. 

The feast where Ashara danced w/ Brandon and then Ned (and several others) happened before the final tilt, when Rhaegar defeated Selmy. 

And Selmy’s thoughts are very clear: had he unhorsed Rhaegar in the final tilt, after the feast, would Ashara have looked at him instead of Stark? 

Is it possible that he’s not lamenting that Ashara didn’t bang him, but rather that she didn’t look to him for help

 

As far we know it could go either way, Ashara may have not noticed any of the brothers giving how much attention she'd be receiving or Ashara may have notoced Ned but not giving the first step and in both cases Brandon was the go in between. Brandon and Ashara didn't dance as far we know.

Brandon acting like that is why i find unlikely she later banged her, if he knows his little bro is interested, he'd get out the way.

I think that is quite clear that young Ned was attracted to her, being to shy to leave his bench to ask for a dance is a sign of attraction, but i don't really think that it was nothing more than that.

 

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I disagree. I think for Ned to have had a fling or affair or whatever with Ashara and never, not once, think about her would be ooc and would cheapen the plot. But that’s just me. 

For it'd mean that Ned is less rigid than people give him a credit for, everyone has had or will have flings or affairs that in its day seemed pretty big but later don't seem too much.

[kissdbyfire]

45 minutes ago, frenin said:

See?? You don't believe it's Ned so Brandon is the only logical answer if the tale of Ashara is to be true,  even when we're never told once that Ashara and Brandon ever talk without Ned being the subject of the conversation,  but since she banged a Stark, it must be Brandon, because Brandon was a womanizer...

That’s not the point I tried to make. I’m not sold on the idea that Ashara had a fling w/ either man, actually. I do think that IF she had a fling w/ a Stark, it was Brandon, not Ned. And Brandon asking her to dance w/ Ned only reinforces it for me. Like, she wasn’t even aware Ned existed, until the charming Brandon asked her to dance w/ his shy younger brother. 

But after getting Selmy’s thoughts on the matter in Dance, I became less convinced she had a thing w/ a Stark. 

The feast where Ashara danced w/ Brandon and then Ned (and several others) happened before the final tilt, when Rhaegar defeated Selmy. 

And Selmy’s thoughts are very clear: had he unhorsed Rhaegar in the final tilt, after the feast, would Ashara have looked to him instead of Stark? 

Is it possible that he’s not lamenting that Ashara didn’t bang him, but rather that she didn’t look to him for help? 

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 And Ned and Ashara having a night in Harrenhall in no way means that Ned should've be hung up onto that 15 years later, it seems that if our Ned is not deeply in love with someone, it's impossible for him.

I disagree. I think for Ned to have had a fling or affair or whatever with Ashara and never, not once, think about her would be ooc and would cheapen the plot. But that’s just me. 

[SFDanny]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Having days to ponder, and friends to talk this through, really doesn't support the idea of a rash, or spur-of-the-moment decision. By Ned's account, Brandon wasn't stupid and always knew what to do, so I assume there are factors we don't know about yet.

And cool-headed or not, the most natural reaction for someone worried about a kidnapped sibling is enquiring about her. If Jaime reported Brandon yelling "return my sister at once or die", I wouldn't question Brandon's motivation (and knowledge if the whole thing may have been consensual or not). 

I absolutely agree. Brandon rides from near Riverrun in a journey we know normally takes a fortnight or so to complete. Even if he and his companions only take half that time it is still a matter of many days. That rules out a spur of the moment response. Brandon has time to think this through. His problem, it seems to me, is he believes historical precedents will protect him, and he is therefore within his "rights" to demand his duel. He believes Aerys will grant his demand for a duel, but Aerys is not Baelor Breakspear or Aegon V Targaryen. Aerys instead seizes the opportunity Brandon's demand gives him to "settle" with people he thinks as enemies. 

 

3 hours ago, Ygrain said:

That is indeed consistent with his actions as well as character (what little we know about). However, I wouldn't rule out avenging the dishonour to his sister as well as family - back at HH, he nearly got to a fistfight with Rhaegar for exactly that reason.

I too don't think one can rule this out, but I think we have evidence that points to a different reason - interference into a Lord's right to make marriages and have them respected by others - as the reason for Brandon's anger at Harrenhal.

[SFDanny]

2 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

Yet on her trip down to King's Landing Arya was roaming around the Riverlands on her own quite frequently.

No, she is not. She is part of a very large royal party and under its protection. She occasionally wanders off from the main party. That is far different from the idea Lyanna would be allowed to travel unescorted. Arya goes off to explore with her friend around the orbit and power of a huge protective party. Lyanna traveling alone from the Eyrie, for instance, would be unheard of in Westeros. Again, could Lyanna have runaway from her escort? Yes, but she almost certainly would have had one. It is also very likely from the clues given us that it is those in her escort who witness Rhaegar and his party leaving with Lyanna at sword point, and who would know where to find Brandon and tell him of the event.

[Frey family reunion]

22 minutes ago, SFDanny said:

No, she is not. She is part of a very large royal party and under its protection. She occasionally wanders off from the main party. That is far different from the idea Lyanna would be allowed to travel unescorted. Arya goes off to explore with her friend around the orbit and power of a huge protective party. Lyanna traveling alone from the Eyrie, for instance, would be unheard of in Westeros. Again, could Lyanna have runaway from her escort? Yes, but she almost certainly would have had one. It is also very likely from the clues given us that it is those in her escort who witness Rhaegar and his party leaving with Lyanna at sword point, and who would know where to find Brandon and tell him of the event.

My point being, is that Lyanna didn't have to run away from her escort to have encountered Rhaegar (and perhaps any of the six unnamed traveling companions that left King's Landing with Rhaegar).  She could have easily rode off on her own under the pretext of exploring the countryside without anyone raising an eyebrow.  After all Arya roamed around the Neck and around the Riverlands by herself.  

So if Lyanna had decided she was going to have a rendez vous with someone she could have easily done so without there being any witnesses to whoever she decided to secretly meet.  It's very doubtful that she would have had armed guards following her wherever she went.

Dany's romantic fantasy about Daario carrying her off by swordpoint as she heard was done with Rhaegar and Lyanna, is probably just that, a singer's fantasy version of the actual events.

After all, Ned believes that Lyanna's "wolf blood" or wildness led her to an early grave.  It kind of cuts against the idea of Lyanna being carried away by swordpoint.  But Lyanna willingly heading off definitely fits more easily.

 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

Look at the whole paragraph:

When the wars were over at last, and Catelyn rode to Winterfell, Jon and his wet nurse had already taken up residence.
That cut deep. Ned would not speak of the mother, not so much as a word, but a castle has no secrets, and Catelyn heard her maids repeating tales they heard from the lips of her husband’s soldiers. They whispered of Ser Arthur Dayne, the Sword of the Morning, deadliest of the seven knights of Aerys’s Kingsguard, and of how their young lord had slain him in single combat. And they told how afterward Ned had carried Ser Arthur’s sword back to the beautiful young sister who awaited him in a castle called Starfall on the shores of the Summer Sea. The Lady Ashara Dayne, tall and fair, with haunting violet eyes.

This is what Cat quotes as the extent of what she heard. Not a word about Harrenhal or a baby - so, is her recollection incomplete, did she "read" between the lines of what the maids said, or did she make an intuitive jump because she finally heard about Ned in connection with some woman?

 

Once again, no.  Cat confronts Ned with the truth of "it".  It being the rumor around Winterfell that Ashara is Jon's mother.  Which is why Ned responds for her to never ask him about Jon.

[frenin]

3 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

My point being, is that Lyanna didn't have to run away from her escort to have encountered Rhaegar (and perhaps any of the six unnamed traveling companions that left King's Landing with Rhaegar).  She could have easily rode off on her own under the pretext of exploring the countryside without anyone raising an eyebrow.  After all Arya roamed around the Neck and around the Riverlands by herself.  

So if Lyanna had decided she was going to have a rendez vous with someone she could have easily done so without there being any witnesses to whoever she decided to secretly meet.  It's very doubtful that she would have had armed guards following her wherever she went.

Dany's romantic fantasy about Daario carrying her off by swordpoint as she heard was done with Rhaegar and Lyanna, is probably just that, a singer's fantasy version of the actual events.

After all, Ned believes that Lyanna's "wolf blood" or wildness led her to an early grave.  It kind of cuts against the idea of Lyanna being carried away by swordpoint.  But Lyanna running away definitely fits more easily.

 

For all we know, Ned's telling that because she knows Lyanna is the Kotl and  knows that that was where all started.

What Winter could've told that to Dany?? She's pretty clear that everything she knows about Westeros and  Rhaegar she knows from Viserys and  the loyalists.

[Frey family reunion]

Just now, frenin said:

For all we know, Ned's telling that because she knows Lyanna is the Kotl and  knows that that was where all started.

What Winter could've told that to Dany?? She's pretty clear that everything she knows about Westeros and  Rhaegar she knows from Viserys and  the loyalists.

Everything she knows about Westeros and her family is from Viserys and Viserys alone.  She repeats that on several occassions.  Viserys is a child when this occurred and not present.  So unless Rhaegar or one of Rhaegar's Kingsguards went up to him and described how they kidnapped Lyanna by swordpoint, it seems pretty evident that Viserys is probably just repeating tales surrounding the incident.  And it doesn't take very long for singers to start memorializing events in song.  Whether those songs or truthful or not.

[Ygrain]

48 minutes ago, frenin said:

You have ignored the other part as well.

 

This couldn't be clearier.

You're completely missing the point. Nowhere does she explicitely state hearing from anyone that Ashara is Jon's mother. Either she did but did not state it among the rumours, or she jumped to a conclusion, just like you do. THAT is what is not clear. Just as it's not clear whether the gossipers were just innocently dronning information, implying their own conclusions, or outright telling their lady "they say your husband had a thing for AD".

 

 

48 minutes ago, frenin said:

It's Harwin btw the one who talks about the Harrenhall tale and it's Harwin the one who sayst hat that tale was often told in Winterfell when he was a child, not Cat and we know that those tales stopped the moment they were told and because obviously, those tales could not do any good in the long run, with Cat salty about how was with "his true love" and all the kids starting making uncomfortable answers. 

I know it was Harwin. Harwin, not Cat, and the account of rumours that Cat gives does not include HH.

48 minutes ago, frenin said:

it's quite clear that Winterfell thought Ashara was the mother

If they did, Sansa wouldn't have overheard that Jon's mother was commonborn.

48 minutes ago, frenin said:

If Ned comes back from Starfall with a kid 

Sadly, it is never stated that Ned came back from Starfall with a kid, and even if he did, it is not stated his people knew.

47 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

The feast where Ashara danced w/ Brandon and then Ned (and several others) happened before the final tilt, when Rhaegar defeated Selmy. 

And Selmy’s thoughts are very clear: had he unhorsed Rhaegar in the final tilt, after the feast, would Ashara have looked to him instead of Stark? 

Is it possible that he’s not lamenting that Ashara didn’t bang him, but rather that she didn’t look to him for help? 

It is - a help which he couldn't provide, being sworn not to marry.

However: I don't think that the order of dance and tilt rules out Brandon - in fact, the contrary. He is this dashing ladies' man, used to getting what he wants, but all of a sudden, he is bested and loses his alpha dog - sorry, wolf - position. A logical step would be to look for something to soothe his bruised ego, to prove something to himself. Alcohol, or sex, or both. Or perhaps Ashara felt sorry for his bruised butt. Or perhaps they had been banging all along but were seen only after the last tilt and it is just old, naïve Barristan thinking his victory would have changed a thing.

47 minutes ago, kissdbyfire said:

I disagree. I think for Ned to have had a fling or affair or whatever with Ashara and never, not once, think about her would be ooc and would cheapen the plot. But that’s just me. 

Me too.

[Ygrain]

22 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

Once again, no.  Cat confronts Ned with the truth of "it".  It being the rumor around Winterfell that Ashara is Jon's mother.  Which is why Ned responds for her to never ask him about Jon.

I see what you mean but I'm not sure this is the sole possible reading (especially in a GRRM book). As in,"she wanted to know if it (the rumours) were true", or "she asked him to tell her truthfully". There would be no doubt if the rumour that Ashara was Jon's mother (or at least that Ned and Ashara had an affair) was explicitely stated, but it is not.

Because if N+A is what people whisper (and frankly, Ned putting an end to it might only seem giving it credibility), how do you explain this?

And Jon's mother had been common, or so people whispered. 

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, frenin said:

For all we know, Ned's telling that because she knows Lyanna is the Kotl and  knows that that was where all started.

What Winter could've told that to Dany?? She's pretty clear that everything she knows about Westeros and  Rhaegar she knows from Viserys and  the loyalists.

Heh, the other thought that popped in my head, is that she may have seen the entire thing acted out in one of the playhouses in Braavos.  After all, it didn't take them long to reenact the events of the Purple Wedding.  

[Melifeather]

5 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

There is actually justification in the story that some folks in Winterfell believed that Jon was conceived during the Harrenhal tourney.  We just have to add these two Winterfell rumors together to come to that conclusion:

But the rumors apparently also included the fact that Ned's relationship began and ended at Harrenhal:

So perhaps the the maids and soldiers of Winterfell believed that Ned conceived Jon at Harrenhal, despite the fact that it would make him a good bit older than Robb.

I think much and more has been made about how much smaller in stature Jon is to Robb. Jon is described as slight and graceful while Robb is described as robust - sort of like how Aemon Steelsong is robust and Monster is slight.  Then there's the "bastards grow up faster" line, which I think Maester Luwin intended to make Catelyn feel better. Jon always did everything first and better than Robb. Was he really that talented, or was he perhaps older? It is possible that Jon looked of an age with Robb simply because of his smaller build, and I wouldn't put it beyond Ned to lie to Catelyn and place his conception after their wedding so as to ease her fears about Robb's inheritance as first born.

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Ygrain said:

I see what you mean but I'm not sure this is the sole possible reading (especially in a GRRM book). As in,"she wanted to know if it (the rumours) were true", or "she asked him to tell her truthfully". There would be no doubt if the rumour that Ashara was Jon's mother (or at least that Ned and Ashara had an affair) was explicitely stated, but it is not.

Because if N+A is what people whisper (and frankly, Ned putting an end to it might only seem giving it credibility), how do you explain this?

And Jon's mother had been common, or so people whispered. 

That's the nature of rumors, isn't it?  Some people heard it rumored that Ashara was Jon's mother, others heard that it was some commoner that Ned met up with.  

I'm not here to suggest that because it was rumored that Ashara was Jon's mother and because it was rumored that Ashara and Ned's dalliance occurred at Harrenhal that I think that in fact, Jon was conceived at Harrenhal.  I too think that this is probably too early.

My only point is that we really don't have enough information to make that call yet, do we?  

So is it possible that the at least some in Winterfell believe (once again perhaps without justification) that Jon was born a good bit before Robb, despite or perhaps because of what they have seen of both children? 

I know that Cat seems to believe that Ned conceived Jon after their marriage, but it's not really clear why she assumes that.  Is it because of what she observed between Jon or Robb?  Or does she assumes it because she wants it to be true?  That she wants Robb to be older than Jon.  

At least for me it's hard to tell.  We have to look no further than the POV chapters of her daughter Sansa to see that we may not be able to completely trust that the inner thoughts of these characters as accurately reflecting reality.

What I know is that Cat considers Jon a threat to the inheritance of Robb and the rest of her children.  Jon would be less a threat if Jon were younger than Robb.  Is this why Cat assumes that Jon is younger than Robb?  Does Cat have an invested interest in making everyone else come to that conclusion as well?

[kissdbyfire]

31 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

I think much and more has been made about how much smaller in stature Jon is to Robb. Jon is described as slight and graceful while Robb is described as robust - sort of like how Aemon Steelsong is robust and Monster is slight.  

Here’s the quote.

AGoT, Bran I

"No," Jon Snow said quietly. "It was not courage. This one was dead of fear. You could see it in his eyes, Stark." Jon's eyes were a grey so dark they seemed almost black, but there was little they did not see. He was of an age with Robb, but they did not look alike. Jon was slender where Robb was muscular, dark where Robb was fair, graceful and quick where his half brother was strong and fast.

There is nothing in the text pointing to Jon being “much smaller” in height than Robb. The two have very different body types, w/ Jon being slender and Robb muscular, but that has nothing at all to do w/ height. 

 

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Then there's the "bastards grow up faster" line, which I think Maester Luwin intended to make Catelyn feel better. Jon always did everything first and better than Robb. Was he really that talented, or was he perhaps older? It is possible that Jon looked of an age with Robb simply because of his smaller build,

Again, slender x robust means nothing height-wise. One can be slender and taller, the other robust (stocky, muscular) and shorter. Also, I always took the bastards grow up faster to mean they mature faster, you know, b/c they kinda have to. Not that they literally grow and develop faster physically than trueborn children. 

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and I wouldn't put it beyond Ned to lie to Catelyn and place his conception after their wedding so as to ease her fears about Robb's inheritance as first born.

And this makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. As a bastard, Jon is not a threat to Robb’s inheritance, something Cat knows full well. Even more nonsensical is for Ned to create a lie to eliminate a non-issue, while creating one that is much worse, namely, that he fathered a son after being married to Cat.